Josh Allen 2020 MVP odds

[CorkScrewHill]

I find it interesting that for all the wailing and gnashing of teeth about Josh Allen, going into his 3rd year the people paid to be right on such things have Josh tied for the 12th overall best QB odds of being the MVP and tied for 14th best overall odds for the award. certainly he can regress or even not grow and the luster will fade (e.g., Baker and Mitch Trubisky had good odds last year). But it does indicate that for those that are paid to look at trends the trends favor continued growth which could take him to the MVP. Considering he was drafted as the raw prospect who needed time to grow .. it is encouraging .. unless you are a negative person in which case you will focus on Mitch Trubisky and be sad for the next 7 months.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2020-nfl-mvp-odds-patrick-mahomes-leads-the-field-but-lamar-jackson-isnt-far-behind/

[MJS]

5 minutes ago, CorkScrewHill said:

I find it interesting that for all the wailing and gnashing of teeth about Josh Allen, going into his 3rd year the people paid to be right on such things have Josh tied for the 12th overall best QB odds of being the MVP and tied for 14th best overall odds for the award. certainly he can regress or even not grow and the luster will fade (e.g., Baker and Mitch Trubisky had good odds last year). But it does indicate that for those that are paid to look at trends the trends favor continued growth which could take him to the MVP. Considering he was drafted as the raw prospect who needed time to grow .. it is encouraging .. unless you are a negative person in which case you will focus on Mitch Trubisky and be sad for the next 7 months.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2020-nfl-mvp-odds-patrick-mahomes-leads-the-field-but-lamar-jackson-isnt-far-behind/

 

They don't get paid to be right. They get paid to understand national sentiment.

[Lurker]

 

What's the book on this sort of thing?      A buck twenty-five and two Budweiser bottle caps?...

[atlbillsfan1975]

Not only negative people want to believe Josh isn’t the answer, it’s also the people who were vocal about him being the wrong pick. These people have maintained their position and instead of cheering for the QB of their team they would rather not be wrong and thus always play devil’s advocate. It’s fine to be a level headed fan. As you pointed out, even gamblers are realizing the progress and greater potential for Allen. To not see it is an axe to grind.

Edited February 8, 2020 by atlbillsfan1975

[MJS]

1 minute ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Not only negative people want to believe Josh isn’t the answer, it’s also the people who were vocal about him being the wrong pick. These people have maintained their position and instead of cheering for the QB of their team they would rather not be wrong and thus always plays devils advocate. It’s fine to be a level headed fan. As you pointed out, even gamblers are realizing the progress and greater potential for Allen. To not see it is an axe to grind.

 

I agree, but there was also (on the other side) a lot of irrational exuberance going into the season about Josh Allen. Many fans thought he would have franchise QB stats and take the league by storm. Some even thought he would be in the running for MVP. I expected another season of growing pains, but steady improvement. That's what we got. Next season we will probably see more growing pains but hopefully a lot of improvement as well. Josh was really raw coming out of college.

 

The nice thing is, we are winning enough games to be dangerous and taken seriously even thought Josh is having to learn and progress so much. That's good news, because if we can win with an inexperienced and fundamentally deficient Josh Allen, we can definitely win once he is experienced and has his fundamentals cemented.

[KD in CA]

40:1 seems about right.

 

Jimmy G at 60:1 coming off a Super Bowl.  Ouch.

[Formerly Allan in MD]

Close it!

[atlbillsfan1975]

41 minutes ago, MJS said:

 

I agree, but there was also (on the other side) a lot of irrational exuberance going into the season about Josh Allen. Many fans thought he would have franchise QB stats and take the league by storm. Some even thought he would be in the running for MVP. I expected another season of growing pains, but steady improvement. That's what we got. Next season we will probably see more growing pains but hopefully a lot of improvement as well. Josh was really raw coming out of college.

 

The nice thing is, we are winning enough games to be dangerous and taken seriously even thought Josh is having to learn and progress so much. That's good news, because if we can win with an inexperienced and fundamentally deficient Josh Allen, we can definitely win once he is experienced and has his fundamentals cemented.

Yep. There is two ends of the spectrum for sure. 

[billsfan89]

I think Josh's chances at an MVP are slim. 5% or less. He doesn't need to be an MVP to get this team to win the division and get them in a position to 12 wins and a possible first round bye. Josh needs to be a top 10 QB or at least close. If I am pegging his stats I say he has to push 4k yards, 30TD's 10 or less INT's and a 60% or better completion percentage along with sub 3 lost fumbles and 350 rushing yards and 3+ rush TD's. 

[GreggTX]

Is this a joke? You have a better chance to get hit by lighting on 10 consecutive Sundays than Josh Allen has of ever winning an MVP. The blind homerism for JA is just stunning. Where was his passing efficiency ranked in 2019? 26th? Well he was something like 33rd among starting QB's in 2018, so I guess 26th isn't all bad. My greatest fear is that McDermott and Beane will simply refuse to admit that they need to draft another QB until it costs them their jobs. Unless he gets a LOT better, he will hold this team back. Waiting to get flamed for telling the truth now.

Edited February 8, 2020 by GreggTX

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, GreggTX said:

Is this a joke? You have a better chance to get hit by lighting on 10 consecutive Sundays than Josh Allen has of ever winning an MVP. The blind homerism for JA is just stunning. Where was his passing efficiency ranked in 2019? 26th? Well he was something like 33rd among starting QB's in 2018, so I guess 26th isn't all bad. My greatest fear is that McDermott and Beane will simply refuse to admit that they need to draft another QB until it costs them their jobs. Unless he gets a LOT better, he will hold this team back. Waiting to get flamed for telling the truth now.

 

He got a lot better from year 1 to year 2.

 

Let's see what he does year 2 to year 3.

 

It's 2 years into a young, extremely raw QB's career and you already think it's time to draft a QB????

 

Sheesh. Welcome to the age of instant gratification.

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, GreggTX said:

Is this a joke? You have a better chance to get hit by lighting on 10 consecutive Sundays than Josh Allen has of ever winning an MVP. The blind homerism for JA is just stunning. Where was his passing efficiency ranked in 2019? 26th? Well he was something like 33rd among starting QB's in 2018, so I guess 26th isn't all bad. My greatest fear is that McDermott and Beane will simply refuse to admit that they need to draft another QB until it costs them their jobs. Unless he gets a LOT better, he will hold this team back. Waiting to get flamed for telling the truth now.

Yeah.....that’s why it’s 40-1.  It’s called value.

 

i bet Lamar Jackson this year at......50-1.  
 

if our offensive line improves as much as it did this past offseason and we add a couple dangerous pass catchers....and he improves as much as he did this off-season, anything can happen.  $5 pays 200.  It’s really not a terrible bet, just unlikely 

[Nextmanup]

11 hours ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Not only negative people want to believe Josh isn’t the answer, it’s also the people who were vocal about him being the wrong pick. These people have maintained their position and instead of cheering for the QB of their team they would rather not be wrong and thus always plays devils advocate. It’s fine to be a level headed fan. As you pointed out, even gamblers are realizing the progress and greater potential for Allen. To not see it is an axe to grind.

This canard is regurgitated over and over by the kool aid types. 

It's crap.  I'm as big a critic of Allen as there is on this board and no one wants the team to win more than me.

 

It's precisely b/c of my desire to win that I'm vocally critical of Allen.

 

I'd like to see us so something beyond lose a playoff game in the off-season.

 

How about you?

 

 

[atlbillsfan1975]

1 hour ago, Nextmanup said:

This canard is regurgitated over and over by the kool aid types. 

It's crap.  I'm as big a critic of Allen as there is on this board and no one wants the team to win more than me.

 

It's precisely b/c of my desire to win that I'm vocally critical of Allen.

 

I'd like to see us so something beyond lose a playoff game in the off-season.

 

How about you?

 

 

Of course I want to see a Super Bowl win. Every Bills fan does, I think. Ha

[strive_for_five_guy]

I find it interesting that Bills to win SB is also running at 40-1 on some books, so essentially books are saying if Bills win SB next year, Allen is going to be the MVP.  If you think Bills are going to win SB, might as well bet Bills alone rather than tie yourself to also needing JA to be the MVP.

[CorkScrewHill]

10 hours ago, GreggTX said:

Is this a joke? You have a better chance to get hit by lighting on 10 consecutive Sundays than Josh Allen has of ever winning an MVP. The blind homerism for JA is just stunning. Where was his passing efficiency ranked in 2019? 26th? Well he was something like 33rd among starting QB's in 2018, so I guess 26th isn't all bad. My greatest fear is that McDermott and Beane will simply refuse to admit that they need to draft another QB until it costs them their jobs. Unless he gets a LOT better, he will hold this team back. Waiting to get flamed for telling the truth now.

Blind homerism .. sheesh back at you with your blind hate. Did I say I would take the bet .. no .. but he is clearly better than you GM give him credit since sports books are giving him fairly decent odds. We were really one play from winning that playoff game .. San Fran was one big play from sealing it against KC ... good not great QBs can win with this Bills team and that is what Josh is. But as stated he was raw..if he doesn’t keep progressing .. you would have a point ... as of now your point just appears to be an ax to grind. Maybe the Bills could pick up the beloved Rosen for a 6th round pick to backup Josh and make all of you never Joshers happy!

Edited February 8, 2020 by CorkScrewHill

[Magox]

It’s certainly possible.  We saw the huge jump Lamar had and there have many others that made similar jumps from one year to the next.

 

If Allen continues to improve on his deep ball, processing of the field post snap and improves on his deep ball, guess what?

 

He becomes a pro bowl caliber QB

[machine gun kelly]

I think he’ll be better, but MVP?  No way.

[Bferra13]

8 hours ago, GreggTX said:

Is this a joke? You have a better chance to get hit by lighting on 10 consecutive Sundays than Josh Allen has of ever winning an MVP. The blind homerism for JA is just stunning. Where was his passing efficiency ranked in 2019? 26th? Well he was something like 33rd among starting QB's in 2018, so I guess 26th isn't all bad. My greatest fear is that McDermott and Beane will simply refuse to admit that they need to draft another QB until it costs them their jobs. Unless he gets a LOT better, he will hold this team back. Waiting to get flamed for telling the truth now.

 

As someone posted before me, this is blind hate. If you feel this way after all the progress he made this year, you're never going to like him. Might as well find a new team because he is very likely here for the foreseeable future and beyond.

[JoPoy88]

16 hours ago, CorkScrewHill said:

I find it interesting that for all the wailing and gnashing of teeth about Josh Allen, going into his 3rd year the people paid to be right on such things have Josh tied for the 12th overall best QB odds of being the MVP and tied for 14th best overall odds for the award. certainly he can regress or even not grow and the luster will fade (e.g., Baker and Mitch Trubisky had good odds last year). But it does indicate that for those that are paid to look at trends the trends favor continued growth which could take him to the MVP. Considering he was drafted as the raw prospect who needed time to grow .. it is encouraging .. unless you are a negative person in which case you will focus on Mitch Trubisky and be sad for the next 7 months.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2020-nfl-mvp-odds-patrick-mahomes-leads-the-field-but-lamar-jackson-isnt-far-behind/

40 to 1 is what, 2.5% thereabouts? Mathletes in the thread can correct me. I’d give Allen a 2% chance of winning MVP next year, sure. Not quite certain why you think this is validating anything though.

[CommonCents]

8 hours ago, GreggTX said:

Is this a joke? You have a better chance to get hit by lighting on 10 consecutive Sundays than Josh Allen has of ever winning an MVP. The blind homerism for JA is just stunning. Where was his passing efficiency ranked in 2019? 26th? Well he was something like 33rd among starting QB's in 2018, so I guess 26th isn't all bad. My greatest fear is that McDermott and Beane will simply refuse to admit that they need to draft another QB until it costs them their jobs. Unless he gets a LOT better, he will hold this team back. Waiting to get flamed for telling the truth now.

The truth? You said “get hit by lighting on ten straight days” and then claim to be a truth sayer. 

 

Go back to bed. 

[Charles Romes]

What was most encouraging to me is that Josh can certainly play the same game and most of the time better than what Mahomes did to win the super bowl.  Huge arm ability creates opportunities for chunk plays that make up for 3 quarters of off target throws on a bad day.  Just need a few playmakers.  

[White Linen]

18 hours ago, MJS said:

 

I agree, but there was also (on the other side) a lot of irrational exuberance going into the season about Josh Allen. Many fans thought he would have franchise QB stats and take the league by storm. Some even thought he would be in the running for MVP. I expected another season of growing pains, but steady improvement. That's what we got. Next season we will probably see more growing pains but hopefully a lot of improvement as well. Josh was really raw coming out of college.

 

The nice thing is, we are winning enough games to be dangerous and taken seriously even thought Josh is having to learn and progress so much. That's good news, because if we can win with an inexperienced and fundamentally deficient Josh Allen, we can definitely win once he is experienced and has his fundamentals cemented.

 

What do you mean by fundamentals?

[MJS]

1 minute ago, White Linen said:

 

What do you mean by fundamentals?

Passing fundamentals such as footwork, but also fundamentals of reading defenses, progressing through reads, etc.

[Alphadawg7]

17 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

I think Josh's chances at an MVP are slim. 5% or less. He doesn't need to be an MVP to get this team to win the division and get them in a position to 12 wins and a possible first round bye. Josh needs to be a top 10 QB or at least close. If I am pegging his stats I say he has to push 4k yards, 30TD's 10 or less INT's and a 60% or better completion percentage along with sub 3 lost fumbles and 350 rushing yards and 3+ rush TD's. 

Those numbers are not far off to his numbers this year.  

[HOUSE]

The odds I open that link is zero  ?

[Billl]

This thread is basically a terrible take contest on both sides.  I get routinely criticized for my opinion on Allen, and I'm the most moderate one on here.  To this point, he's been a terrible QB that has shown flashes of greatness but who also makes way too many negative plays.  The game is clearly too fast for him at times, and he has a tendency to panic.  He also has a bad habit of tucking his elbow to his body and short arming passes, especially on deep throws.  There's the bad side of Josh.

 

The potential is real, though.  If he's going to unlock it, it's going to be this year.  A year ago, he was 150-1 for MVP, so his stock has risen since then.  After his third season as a starter, there shouldn't be anything left to debate.  There's no need to use the word "potential" every again.  He will be what the back of his football card says he is.  Whether that will be a franchise QB or a placeholder for the next guy in 2021 is yet to be determined.  As for me, I give him about a 40% chance of being the man.  I would have said about 10% when he was drafted and about 25% after last season.  He's tough to figure out.

[Alphadawg7]

17 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

I think Josh's chances at an MVP are slim. 5% or less. He doesn't need to be an MVP to get this team to win the division and get them in a position to 12 wins and a possible first round bye. Josh needs to be a top 10 QB or at least close. If I am pegging his stats I say he has to push 4k yards, 30TD's 10 or less INT's and a 60% or better completion percentage along with sub 3 lost fumbles and 350 rushing yards and 3+ rush TD's. 

Those numbers are not far off to his numbers this year.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Those numbers are not far off to his numbers this year.  

 

My magic 8 ball says "Disagreement (from OP) is Likely"

 

2 hours ago, Billl said:

This thread is basically a terrible take contest on both sides.  I get routinely criticized for my opinion on Allen, and I'm the most moderate one on here.  To this point, he's been a terrible QB that has shown flashes of greatness but who also makes way too many negative plays.  The game is clearly too fast for him at times, and he has a tendency to panic.  He also has a bad habit of tucking his elbow to his body and short arming passes, especially on deep throws.  There's the bad side of Josh.

 

The potential is real, though.  If he's going to unlock it, it's going to be this year.  A year ago, he was 150-1 for MVP, so his stock has risen since then.  After his third season as a starter, there shouldn't be anything left to debate.  There's no need to use the word "potential" every again.  He will be what the back of his football card says he is.  Whether that will be a franchise QB or a placeholder for the next guy in 2021 is yet to be determined.  As for me, I give him about a 40% chance of being the man.  I would have said about 10% when he was drafted and about 25% after last season.  He's tough to figure out.

 

You are either delusional, trolling, or ..."unusual" in how you define "most moderate".

[CorkScrewHill]

13 hours ago, GreggTX said:

Is this a joke? You have a better chance to get hit by lighting on 10 consecutive Sundays than Josh Allen has of ever winning an MVP. The blind homerism for JA is just stunning. Where was his passing efficiency ranked in 2019? 26th? Well he was something like 33rd among starting QB's in 2018, so I guess 26th isn't all bad. My greatest fear is that McDermott and Beane will simply refuse to admit that they need to draft another QB until it costs them their jobs. Unless he gets a LOT better, he will hold this team back. Waiting to get flamed for telling the truth now.

Truth ... hmm the chance of a person being struck one time this year by lightening is 1 in 700,000 .. 10 Sunday’s in a row would be a number that would have so many zeros you would get bored before reading the end of it. Josh Allen is 1 of 32 WBs in the NFL on a team that is good enough to make the playoffs .. I think you are a) either still bitter they didn’t take “your” guy or b) you are very, very bad at math.  He has a long way to go but has a come long way. You complain about those that are homers ... most of us “homers” are not indicating he has arrived .. we are saying he is clearly getting better, his team loves him and follows him, and we could certainly do worse (and have for the better part of two decades) even if this is his peak .. which few think it is. I am not flaming you .. just flaming your defeatist it’s over he cannot improve Mindset.

[Billl]

24 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

My magic 8 ball says "Disagreement (from OP) is Likely"

 

 

You are either delusional, trolling, or ..."unusual" in how you define "most moderate".

Yeah.  I realize that the homers around here think that pegging Allen as only having a 40% chance of being a franchise QB is an extreme take.  Funny that nobody here is predicting that Mitch Trubisky is going to be a factor in the MVP race.  I can promise you that the average non Bills fan has a lower opinion of Allen than I do, though.

[GoBills808]

10 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

This canard is regurgitated over and over by the kool aid types. 

It's crap.  I'm as big a critic of Allen as there is on this board and no one wants the team to win more than me.

 

It's precisely b/c of my desire to win that I'm vocally critical of Allen.

 

I'd like to see us so something beyond lose a playoff game in the off-season.

 

How about you?

 

 

No one wants the team to win any less, either. Some people just don't feel the need to B word about the QB constantly.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

13 minutes ago, Billl said:

Yeah.  I realize that the homers around here think that pegging Allen as only having a 40% chance of being a franchise QB is an extreme take.  Funny that nobody here is predicting that Mitch Trubisky is going to be a factor in the MVP race.  I can promise you that the average non Bills fan has a lower opinion of Allen than I do, though.

 

Speaking for myself, it's more the takes like

-"It’s comforting to know that Josh is good enough to beat a mediocre team as long as every other player on his team makes every catch"

-" Allen made more ridiculously terrible plays in one game than most QBs make in a season"

-"So if we just goose his numbers slightly, you can pretend that he meets the bare minimum level of competence"

that seem a bit extreme, and incompatible with a chap describing himself as

"the most moderate one on here"

 

Straight up, you get criticized for your takes on Allen because they are at times extreme.

[White Linen]

3 hours ago, MJS said:

Passing fundamentals such as footwork, but also fundamentals of reading defenses, progressing through reads, etc.

 

Footwork, IMO, is just so cliche and doesn't mean a whole lot to me.  Reading defenses is something that takes time and is accelerated by a coach that knows how to teach - Josh is at a major disadvantage here.  Progressing through reads is antiquated and really isn't the mainstay of offensive philosophy in the NFL.  

[MJS]

1 hour ago, White Linen said:

 

Footwork, IMO, is just so cliche and doesn't mean a whole lot to me.  Reading defenses is something that takes time and is accelerated by a coach that knows how to teach - Josh is at a major disadvantage here.  Progressing through reads is antiquated and really isn't the mainstay of offensive philosophy in the NFL.  

Ok, you don't seem to understand Josh or his shortcomings. Footwork has been a huge issue for him. Progressing through reads is a huge part of the game and always will be.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

12 minutes ago, MJS said:

Ok, you don't seem to understand Josh or his shortcomings. Footwork has been a huge issue for him. Progressing through reads is a huge part of the game and always will be.

 

It's not just Josh, footwork or the need to improve footwork has been cited as an issue with a number of other QB - most recently Baker Mayfield

[Billl]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Speaking for myself, it's more the takes like

-"It’s comforting to know that Josh is good enough to beat a mediocre team as long as every other player on his team makes every catch"

-" Allen made more ridiculously terrible plays in one game than most QBs make in a season"

-"So if we just goose his numbers slightly, you can pretend that he meets the bare minimum level of competence"

that seem a bit extreme, and incompatible with a chap describing himself as

"the most moderate one on here"

 

Straight up, you get criticized for your takes on Allen because they are at times extreme.

Yeah.  He's been really bad to this point in his career.  One of the lowest rated QBs both years and dead last in completion percentage both years.  I don't know if that's ever been done before.  That i still think he has a puncher's chance of being a franchise QB is not in any way extreme.

 

Talking MVP is extreme.

[Mr. WEO]

On 2/7/2020 at 4:14 PM, CorkScrewHill said:

 But it does indicate that for those that are paid to look at trends the trends favor continued growth which could take him to the MVP.

 

 

Huh?? 

 

It's an oddsmaker laying odds.  They put Allen up there because they saw it as an easy way to separate Bills fans from their money.

[CorkScrewHill]

29 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

Huh?? 

 

It's an oddsmaker laying odds.  They put Allen up there because they saw it as an easy way to separate Bills fans from their money.

Right .. because of all the gullible fan bases they are like hey let’s target the Bills fans .. that is where all the money is. Actually if he really has no chance to win they would logically make the odds BIGGER to get even the reluctant foolish Bills fans to go in on the bet. Logic of course is optional in these kinds of posts. 

[Mr. WEO]

10 minutes ago, CorkScrewHill said:

Right .. because of all the gullible fan bases they are like hey let’s target the Bills fans .. that is where all the money is. Actually if he really has no chance to win they would logically make the odds BIGGER to get even the reluctant foolish Bills fans to go in on the bet. Logic of course is optional in these kinds of posts. 

 

 

You answered this question by starting this thread.  Like you, many will think this 40:1 grouping was based on some analysis by bookmakers on Allen's "progress"...or something...and more likely to lay a bet than if they made him seem completely impossible at, say, 300:1, in which case few of any fans would bother to bite.  They figure they will get more action if they make it seem more likely he could win.  It's completely logical.

 

The bookies know you.....of course they are targeting fans.

Edited February 8, 2020 by Mr. WEO