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Good bulletin board material:     https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-we-learned-from-a-very-confusing-week-15-in-the-nfl/?addata=espn:nfl:teams

 

DEC. 16, 2019, AT 2:58 PM

What We Learned From A Very Confusing Week 15 In The NFL

A FiveThirtyEight Chat

Over in the AFC, the Bills are legit, with a convincing win over the Steelers on Sunday night. Buffalo has New England in Week 16. Do the Bills need to beat the Pats to prove themselves as a contender?

 

joshua.hermsmeyer: The Bills … are legit?

 

neil: Playoff bound!    Big deal for a team that’s only made it one other time since 1999.

 

sara.ziegler: They’re playing well! They even looked good against the Ravens last week!

 

Salfino: I have thought for weeks that they are the poor man’s Ravens. But Lamar Jackson is just so much better than Josh Allen, whether it’s him or the coaching (very likely him).

 

joshua.hermsmeyer: If the Bills move Allen to wide receiver, I think they might make some noise in the playoffs.

 

Salfino: If Allen had just been a game manager in the Bills’ last meeting with the Patriots, the Bills would have won. But this is the problem with the Bills. When he’s not turning the ball over, Allen is failing to make basic NFL throws. He’s a high-variance QB and actually, I believe, a bad fit for a team like this. (In fairness, Allen was knocked out of that game early after being hit in the head, but not before he threw three picks.)

 

joshua.hermsmeyer: But a completion percentage 14 percentage points below expected in Week 15 is Not Great.

 

Salfino: Seriously, the Bills would be better off trying to have Allen run for 75 yards per game.    But Allen is more of a power runner like Cam Newton than a gifted runner like Jackson. So maybe his injury risk with this volume is too great.

 

sara.ziegler: So … will the Bills beat the Pats?

 

Salfino: Nope.

 

joshua.hermsmeyer: Nah.

 

Our model has the game at 68 percent for the Pats.

 

sara.ziegler: NO ONE wants to take a flier on the Bills? ?

 

neil: I will say this: That’s the lowest win prob the Pats have had at home against the Bills since Matt Cassel was starting for New England.

The Pats look vulnerable at home … by Pats-Bills standards

Starting quarterbacks, Elo ratings and pregame win probabilities for the last 12 Patriots home games against the Bills, 2008-19

 

  PATRIOTS BILLS  
DATE STARTER QB ADJ. EFFECTIVE ELO STARTER QB ADJ. EFFECTIVE ELO NE WIN% NE WON?
12/21/2019 Brady -28 1645 Allen +11 1572 68% ???
12/23/2018 Brady +2 1626 Allen +49 1418 82
12/24/2017 Brady -8 1694 Taylor +10 1509 80
10/2/2016 Brissett -52 1593 Taylor +2 1505 70  
11/23/2015 Brady +20 1733 Taylor -27 1523 80
12/28/2014 Brady +12 1739 Orton +13 1513 84  
12/29/2013 Brady -4 1669 Lewis -59 1398 87
11/11/2012 Brady +17 1702 Fitzpatrick +6 1465 86
1/1/2012 Brady +20 1736 Fitzpatrick 0 1399 91
9/26/2010 Brady +8 1558 Fitzpatrick +5 1387 79
9/14/2009 Brady +22 1663 Edwards +3 1470 81
11/9/2008 Cassel -125 1555 Edwards +3 1483 68
Edited by Lurker
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22 minutes ago, Freddie's Dead said:

"This is the Moment" from Jekyll and Hyde is running through my brain right now.  It's time for us to into the Razor and beat the Cheats clean.  They can deflate footballs, steal our signals on video, have our equipment "lost" at Logan, play WEEI on our headsets when we're driving for the winning score, but it will avail them nothing.  This is the week we rise up and destroy the Evil Empire once and for all.  Truth, Justice, and the American Way will prevail over those cheatin' scumbags.  I can't wait for Saturday to get here.  ***** you Zolak, the Bills are comin', so get out the way and watch a real non-cheating team drill you sorry cheatin' ***** back to the Stone Age.  GO BILLS!!!

I was pretty much resigned to the fact that Brady would go out on top and ride off into the sunset after another Lombardi Trophy.  But the Bills have the opportunity this year (with a little help) to beat the Pats, claim the division, and signify an end to this unholy era of Pats dominance.  The table is set for a changing of the guard and toppling of an empire in the AFC East.  We'll see. 

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https://sports.yahoo.com/stats-show-why-bills-defense-170835096.html

 

These stats show why Bills defense is difficult test for Tom Brady, Patriots offense

 

Just how good is the Bills defense, exactly? Let's look at several key defensive stats (with league rank in parenthesis).

  • Points allowed/game: 15.9 (2nd)
  • Total yards allowed/game: 291.9 (3rd)
  • Pass yards allowed/game: 190.5 (3rd)
  • Pass TD allowed: 13 (T-2nd)
  • Total TD allowed: 24 (2nd)
  • Sacks: 42 (7th)
  • Interceptions: 13 (8th)
  • QB rating: 76.7 (2nd)
  • 3rd Down: 34.8 percent (6th)

The Bills do not control their own destiny in the division title race. For Buffalo to win the division, it must beat the Patriots and New York Jets to close the regular season, combined with New England losing both of its final two games to the Bills and Miami Dolphins

It's unlikely the Bills will win the division, but going into Gillette Stadium and beating the Patriots is a very real possibility for Buffalo. The Bills defense is one of the league's best, and there's plenty of evidence to suggest this unit is capable of shutting down a Patriots offense that's averaging just 20.3 points over its last six games.

 

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4 hours ago, Warcodered said:

Considering how our schedule had us playing easier teams in the front half and tough ones in the back it's pretty impressive that their numbers have actually gotten better as the year has gone on.

The big difference is limiting those chunk running plays as the Eagles scored 31 points against this defense (10 higher than any other game this year).  Just shows what a good offense the Eagles have when they have their plethora of weapons.

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3 hours ago, Lurker said:

Good bulletin board material:     https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-we-learned-from-a-very-confusing-week-15-in-the-nfl/?addata=espn:nfl:teams

 

DEC. 16, 2019, AT 2:58 PM

What We Learned From A Very Confusing Week 15 In The NFL

A FiveThirtyEight Chat

Over in the AFC, the Bills are legit, with a convincing win over the Steelers on Sunday night. Buffalo has New England in Week 16. Do the Bills need to beat the Pats to prove themselves as a contender?

 

joshua.hermsmeyer: The Bills … are legit?

 

neil: Playoff bound!    Big deal for a team that’s only made it one other time since 1999.

 

sara.ziegler: They’re playing well! They even looked good against the Ravens last week!

 

Salfino: I have thought for weeks that they are the poor man’s Ravens. But Lamar Jackson is just so much better than Josh Allen, whether it’s him or the coaching (very likely him).

 

joshua.hermsmeyer: If the Bills move Allen to wide receiver, I think they might make some noise in the playoffs.

 

Salfino: If Allen had just been a game manager in the Bills’ last meeting with the Patriots, the Bills would have won. But this is the problem with the Bills. When he’s not turning the ball over, Allen is failing to make basic NFL throws. He’s a high-variance QB and actually, I believe, a bad fit for a team like this. (In fairness, Allen was knocked out of that game early after being hit in the head, but not before he threw three picks.)

 

joshua.hermsmeyer: But a completion percentage 14 percentage points below expected in Week 15 is Not Great.

 

Salfino: Seriously, the Bills would be better off trying to have Allen run for 75 yards per game.    But Allen is more of a power runner like Cam Newton than a gifted runner like Jackson. So maybe his injury risk with this volume is too great.

 

sara.ziegler: So … will the Bills beat the Pats?

 

Salfino: Nope.

 

joshua.hermsmeyer: Nah.

 

Our model has the game at 68 percent for the Pats.

 

sara.ziegler: NO ONE wants to take a flier on the Bills? ?

 

neil: I will say this: That’s the lowest win prob the Pats have had at home against the Bills since Matt Cassel was starting for New England.

The Pats look vulnerable at home … by Pats-Bills standards

Starting quarterbacks, Elo ratings and pregame win probabilities for the last 12 Patriots home games against the Bills, 2008-19

 

  PATRIOTS BILLS  
DATE STARTER QB ADJ. EFFECTIVE ELO STARTER QB ADJ. EFFECTIVE ELO NE WIN% NE WON?
12/21/2019 Brady -28 1645 Allen +11 1572 68% ???
12/23/2018 Brady +2 1626 Allen +49 1418 82
12/24/2017 Brady -8 1694 Taylor +10 1509 80
10/2/2016 Brissett -52 1593 Taylor +2 1505 70  
11/23/2015 Brady +20 1733 Taylor -27 1523 80
12/28/2014 Brady +12 1739 Orton +13 1513 84  
12/29/2013 Brady -4 1669 Lewis -59 1398 87
11/11/2012 Brady +17 1702 Fitzpatrick +6 1465 86
1/1/2012 Brady +20 1736 Fitzpatrick 0 1399 91
9/26/2010 Brady +8 1558 Fitzpatrick +5 1387 79
9/14/2009 Brady +22 1663 Edwards +3 1470 81
11/9/2008 Cassel -125 1555 Edwards +3 1483 68

 

I want a "Buffalo Vs Everyone" hoodie sooOOOOoooo badly

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1 hour ago, The Wiz said:

Gumble grumble I don't know about the tapes. 

 

Grumble grumble we're focused on Buffalo. 

 

Grumble grumble chicken. 

 

 

I didn't watch it so let me know if I summarized it correctly. 

You should’ve listened. The following is a summation:

 

That McDermott is one badass!

 

With a redraft of the last decade Josh Allen would go number 1!


Wiz doesn’t stand for wizard; it represents what you should do with hot takes.

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I wonder about this game.  Realistically since there is nearly zero chance that Miami will beat NE, nothing will change for the Bills whether they win or lose.  Meanwhile, NE is playing for home field AND they're pissed about all the "cheating" hype.   We can play loose and carefree but they are going to be HIGHLY motivated to win.  Honestly I don't care that much about this one - as long as we beat them the 3rd time we play them this year.

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If Allen takes care of the ball and puts 20 points on the board we should win this game.

 

The Pats are running on fumes offensively and it's hard to see their offense being productive against us, given the struggles Brady has had recently against much lesser opponents. 

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12 minutes ago, Georgia Bill said:

I wonder about this game.  Realistically since there is nearly zero chance that Miami will beat NE, nothing will change for the Bills whether they win or lose.  Meanwhile, NE is playing for home field AND they're pissed about all the "cheating" hype.   We can play loose and carefree but they are going to be HIGHLY motivated to win.  Honestly I don't care that much about this one - as long as we beat them the 3rd time we play them this year.

Maybe by Saturday afternoon it'll change for me, but I feel the same way.  After getting through all the "we should win" games, a couple hiccups vs Eagles and Browns, and then 3 very tough matchups in a row, this one feels less stressful.  Nothing to lose, but how nice it would be to win.

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17 minutes ago, Georgia Bill said:

I wonder about this game.  Realistically since there is nearly zero chance that Miami will beat NE, nothing will change for the Bills whether they win or lose.  Meanwhile, NE is playing for home field AND they're pissed about all the "cheating" hype.   We can play loose and carefree but they are going to be HIGHLY motivated to win.  Honestly I don't care that much about this one - as long as we beat them the 3rd time we play them this year.

 

The Bills should be motivated to beat their rival and force them to the No 3 seed and make them play 3 games to get to the SB including at least one away...  

 

There is a lot riding on the game....

 

 

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21 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

If Allen takes care of the ball and puts 20 points on the board we should win this game.

 

The Pats are running on fumes offensively and it's hard to see their offense being productive against us, given the struggles Brady has had recently against much lesser opponents. 

20 pts should do it. No turnovers and no points given up by our ST. No hero long ball by Josh, expect the blitz and have hot read outlets. 

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Just now, LABILLBACKER said:

20 pts should do it. No turnovers and no points given up by our ST. No hero long ball by Josh, expect the blitz and have hot read outlets. 

 

Yup.

 

I think this could actually be an easy win if we just take care of the football. 

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34 minutes ago, Georgia Bill said:

I wonder about this game.  Realistically since there is nearly zero chance that Miami will beat NE, nothing will change for the Bills whether they win or lose.  Meanwhile, NE is playing for home field AND they're pissed about all the "cheating" hype.   We can play loose and carefree but they are going to be HIGHLY motivated to win.  Honestly I don't care that much about this one - as long as we beat them the 3rd time we play them this year.


they looked pissed in the Bengals post game video   Not. 
 

sorry Bill  but that’s the easy excuse 

 

Let them be pissed.  This Pats team isn’t the same team anymore.  
 

this isn’t the same Bills team anymore 

 

Fitz would love to play spoiler and ruin the Pats to get the AFC crown 

 

 

 

 

Edited by SlimShady'sGhost
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1 hour ago, Cruiserplayer said:

You should’ve listened. The following is a summation:

 

That McDermott is one badass!

 

With a redraft of the last decade Josh Allen would go number 1!


Wiz doesn’t stand for wizard; it represents what you should do with hot takes.

Apparently I missed my "hot take" and found your cheerio bowl instead. 

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I can't get myself excited for this game at all. I'll watch and root for us but I'm not particularly interested in the result. I hope we are saving some of our trickier plays for the playoffs, don't put them on tape now. I can't convince myself that Miami will beat New England. So this feels almost like a preseason game.

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7 hours ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

https://sports.yahoo.com/stats-show-why-bills-defense-170835096.html

 

These stats show why Bills defense is difficult test for Tom Brady, Patriots offense

 

Just how good is the Bills defense, exactly? Let's look at several key defensive stats (with league rank in parenthesis).

  • Points allowed/game: 15.9 (2nd)
  • Total yards allowed/game: 291.9 (3rd)
  • Pass yards allowed/game: 190.5 (3rd)
  • Pass TD allowed: 13 (T-2nd)
  • Total TD allowed: 24 (2nd)
  • Sacks: 42 (7th)
  • Interceptions: 13 (8th)
  • QB rating: 76.7 (2nd)
  • 3rd Down: 34.8 percent (6th)

The Bills do not control their own destiny in the division title race. For Buffalo to win the division, it must beat the Patriots and New York Jets to close the regular season, combined with New England losing both of its final two games to the Bills and Miami Dolphins

It's unlikely the Bills will win the division, but going into Gillette Stadium and beating the Patriots is a very real possibility for Buffalo. The Bills defense is one of the league's best, and there's plenty of evidence to suggest this unit is capable of shutting down a Patriots offense that's averaging just 20.3 points over its last six games.

 

 

pretty crazy stats considering how poor our offense is

 

imagine if we could sustain drives and score more than 17 points per game

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5 hours ago, Cruiserplayer said:

 

WTF is that one reporters fascination with their damned fieldhouse?  Bunch of opening questions about their fieldhouse.

Aside from Belicheck's***** initial stock comments about the Bills having a good offense, good defense, good special teams, big challenge ahead of us there were three questions about the Bills in the 12+ minute interview:

~2:46 What progress have seen from Josh Allen since September: (very monotone): good then.  good now       [given how badly Josh played in that game.....]

~4:06 What has Devin Singletary given their offense: good quickness.  he's in there an all downs.  got some speed to get to the outside. good quickness to make guys miss. involved in the passing game.  3 down player.  [pauses then expands on this - might have been a follow on question about why it matters that Devin is a 3 down player?] when they've gone no huddle, which they do in some games, certainly benefits you to have the same back on the field, not have to sub backs, he's given them that, I don't know if that's the reason or not, but that's how it's worked out

Asked if ball skills can be developed in the NFL once a player enters your program, or is it more innate? (this must relate to some DB on their team?): I think you can definitely improve it.  We always work on that.  Look, it's a hard position for a defensive back, they're never the intended receiver.  It's like trying to make a slow player fast.  You're never going to make a slow player into the fastest player on the team, but you can improve his speed. (long rambling answer about this)

~8:10 What's allowing Tredavious White to have so many takeaways this season? Oh, he's had 'em in the past. He's a good player, he's quick, he's fast, he's got good instincts, good ball skills, he's around the ball and he's got good hands to finish and make the play

[Interview finishes with questions about Brady being on and off the injury report and what that's meant for the other QB in practice]

 

That was just a very weird interview.  Belicheck seemed different - slow? rambling?  The questions asked were strange - about the field house?  about ball skills in DBs? about whether they evaluate their backup QBs?  Very strange questions from the press.  Are Belicheck interviews always like that?

 

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3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

WTF is that one reporters fascination with their damned fieldhouse?  Bunch of opening questions about their fieldhouse.

Aside from Belicheck's***** initial stock comments about the Bills having a good offense, good defense, good special teams, big challenge ahead of us there were three questions about the Bills in the 12+ minute interview:

~2:46 What progress have seen from Josh Allen since September: (very monotone): good then.  good now       [given how badly Josh played in that game.....]

~4:06 What has Devin Singletary given their offense: good quickness.  he's in there an all downs.  got some speed to get to the outside. good quickness to make guys miss. involved in the passing game.  3 down player.  [pauses then expands on this - might have been a follow on question about why it matters that Devin is a 3 down player?] when they've gone no huddle, which they do in some games, certainly benefits you to have the same back on the field, not have to sub backs, he's given them that, I don't know if that's the reason or not, but that's how it's worked out

Asked if ball skills can be developed in the NFL once a player enters your program, or is it more innate? (this must relate to some DB on their team?): I think you can definitely improve it.  We always work on that.  Look, it's a hard position for a defensive back, they're never the intended receiver.  It's like trying to make a slow player fast.  You're never going to make a slow player into the fastest player on the team, but you can improve his speed. (long rambling answer about this)

~8:10 What's allowing Tredavious White to have so many takeaways this season? Oh, he's had 'em in the past. He's a good player, he's quick, he's fast, he's got good instincts, good ball skills, he's around the ball and he's got good hands to finish and make the play

[Interview finishes with questions about Brady being on and off the injury report and what that's meant for the other QB in practice]

 

That was just a very weird interview.  Belicheck seemed different - slow? rambling?  The questions asked were strange - about the field house?  about ball skills in DBs? about whether they evaluate their backup QBs?  Very strange questions from the press.  Are Belicheck interviews always like that?

 

He's feeding them the questions to ask to throw off our staff when doing analysis.

 

tye7r28x4lc11.jpg

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2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

I can't get myself excited for this game at all. I'll watch and root for us but I'm not particularly interested in the result. I hope we are saving some of our trickier plays for the playoffs, don't put them on tape now. I can't convince myself that Miami will beat New England. So this feels almost like a preseason game.

Gotta disagree here in the grand scheme of things. Going into New England and winning would be a huge symbolic victory regardless of the Miami result. McDermott has yet to beat BB and this would be a huge confidence builder. The Bills, along with MANY teams, seem to get caught up in the Patriots mystique when they play the Pats, especially in Foxborough. Get a dub, get that monkey off your back, and I think it shreds some of that mystique and portends good things going forward. I'm not generally into momentum/"confidence building" or any of that stuff, but this feels like a situation where it is applicable.

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25 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Gotta disagree here in the grand scheme of things. Going into New England and winning would be a huge symbolic victory regardless of the Miami result. McDermott has yet to beat BB and this would be a huge confidence builder. The Bills, along with MANY teams, seem to get caught up in the Patriots mystique when they play the Pats, especially in Foxborough. Get a dub, get that monkey off your back, and I think it shreds some of that mystique and portends good things going forward. I'm not generally into momentum/"confidence building" or any of that stuff, but this feels like a situation where it is applicable.


I agree. This could be a defining moment for this franchise. Imagine if they just absolutely smoked the patriots. 

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The Patriots are diminished, so even with a Bills win the national narrative will be more about their demise and the "is Brady done?" question. We just need to expect and accept that, and honestly, they have earned that attention. The question of their dynasty must be asked and evaluated when they lose Saturday.

 

Regardless, while it won't get as much press nationally, the story in this end of the world will be the changing of the guard at the top. The Pats may still win the division, but I believe a dominate Bills win signals the end to the AFC East as we have known it for the past 20 years. I think that is about to happen Saturday evening.

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8 minutes ago, CSBill said:

The Patriots are diminished, so even with a Bills win the national narrative will be more about their demise and the "is Brady done?" question. We just need to expect and accept that, and honestly, they have earned that attention. The question of their dynasty must be asked and evaluated when they lose Saturday.

 

Regardless, while it won't get as much press nationally, the story in this end of the world will be the changing of the guard at the top. The Pats may still win the division, but I believe a dominate Bills win signals the end to the AFC East as we have known it for the past 20 years. I think that is about to happen Saturday evening.

I think you are right. At first and people with lesser knowledge of the Bills will think it says more about NE than Buffalo. Ne’s three losses to this point have been bad ones to three playoff teams in the AFC. This Saturday the Bills make it a fourth bad defeat. It will show NE is exactly who they are, an average team with an over the hill QB and a HC who can no longer scheme his way to victories with the lack of talent he has assembled. 

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7 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

WTF is that one reporters fascination with their damned fieldhouse?  Bunch of opening questions about their fieldhouse.

Aside from Belicheck's***** initial stock comments about the Bills having a good offense, good defense, good special teams, big challenge ahead of us there were three questions about the Bills in the 12+ minute interview:

~2:46 What progress have seen from Josh Allen since September: (very monotone): good then.  good now       [given how badly Josh played in that game.....]

~4:06 What has Devin Singletary given their offense: good quickness.  he's in there an all downs.  got some speed to get to the outside. good quickness to make guys miss. involved in the passing game.  3 down player.  [pauses then expands on this - might have been a follow on question about why it matters that Devin is a 3 down player?] when they've gone no huddle, which they do in some games, certainly benefits you to have the same back on the field, not have to sub backs, he's given them that, I don't know if that's the reason or not, but that's how it's worked out

Asked if ball skills can be developed in the NFL once a player enters your program, or is it more innate? (this must relate to some DB on their team?): I think you can definitely improve it.  We always work on that.  Look, it's a hard position for a defensive back, they're never the intended receiver.  It's like trying to make a slow player fast.  You're never going to make a slow player into the fastest player on the team, but you can improve his speed. (long rambling answer about this)

~8:10 What's allowing Tredavious White to have so many takeaways this season? Oh, he's had 'em in the past. He's a good player, he's quick, he's fast, he's got good instincts, good ball skills, he's around the ball and he's got good hands to finish and make the play

[Interview finishes with questions about Brady being on and off the injury report and what that's meant for the other QB in practice]

 

That was just a very weird interview.  Belicheck seemed different - slow? rambling?  The questions asked were strange - about the field house?  about ball skills in DBs? about whether they evaluate their backup QBs?  Very strange questions from the press.  Are Belicheck interviews always like that?

 

I get a lot of Boston coverage where I live. His press conferences are pretty much always like this. I don’t think he wants to give the media the time of day.

 

It’s also weird because he does a show called All access I believe with Scott Zolak. And he talks up Football like you wouldn’t believe. It’s pretty impressive and insightful. Just the two of them together and for this week as an example they would illustrate a bunch of our plays and what their team has to prepare for. 

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