Lurker Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 (edited) Good bulletin board material: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-we-learned-from-a-very-confusing-week-15-in-the-nfl/?addata=espn:nfl:teams DEC. 16, 2019, AT 2:58 PM What We Learned From A Very Confusing Week 15 In The NFL A FiveThirtyEight Chat Over in the AFC, the Bills are legit, with a convincing win over the Steelers on Sunday night. Buffalo has New England in Week 16. Do the Bills need to beat the Pats to prove themselves as a contender? joshua.hermsmeyer: The Bills … are legit? neil: Playoff bound! Big deal for a team that’s only made it one other time since 1999. sara.ziegler: They’re playing well! They even looked good against the Ravens last week! Salfino: I have thought for weeks that they are the poor man’s Ravens. But Lamar Jackson is just so much better than Josh Allen, whether it’s him or the coaching (very likely him). joshua.hermsmeyer: If the Bills move Allen to wide receiver, I think they might make some noise in the playoffs. Salfino: If Allen had just been a game manager in the Bills’ last meeting with the Patriots, the Bills would have won. But this is the problem with the Bills. When he’s not turning the ball over, Allen is failing to make basic NFL throws. He’s a high-variance QB and actually, I believe, a bad fit for a team like this. (In fairness, Allen was knocked out of that game early after being hit in the head, but not before he threw three picks.) joshua.hermsmeyer: But a completion percentage 14 percentage points below expected in Week 15 is Not Great. Salfino: Seriously, the Bills would be better off trying to have Allen run for 75 yards per game. But Allen is more of a power runner like Cam Newton than a gifted runner like Jackson. So maybe his injury risk with this volume is too great. sara.ziegler: So … will the Bills beat the Pats? Salfino: Nope. joshua.hermsmeyer: Nah. Our model has the game at 68 percent for the Pats. sara.ziegler: NO ONE wants to take a flier on the Bills? ? neil: I will say this: That’s the lowest win prob the Pats have had at home against the Bills since Matt Cassel was starting for New England. The Pats look vulnerable at home … by Pats-Bills standards Starting quarterbacks, Elo ratings and pregame win probabilities for the last 12 Patriots home games against the Bills, 2008-19 PATRIOTS BILLS DATE STARTER QB ADJ. EFFECTIVE ELO STARTER QB ADJ. EFFECTIVE ELO NE WIN% NE WON? 12/21/2019 Brady -28 1645 Allen +11 1572 68% ??? 12/23/2018 Brady +2 1626 Allen +49 1418 82 ✓ 12/24/2017 Brady -8 1694 Taylor +10 1509 80 ✓ 10/2/2016 Brissett -52 1593 Taylor +2 1505 70 11/23/2015 Brady +20 1733 Taylor -27 1523 80 ✓ 12/28/2014 Brady +12 1739 Orton +13 1513 84 12/29/2013 Brady -4 1669 Lewis -59 1398 87 ✓ 11/11/2012 Brady +17 1702 Fitzpatrick +6 1465 86 ✓ 1/1/2012 Brady +20 1736 Fitzpatrick 0 1399 91 ✓ 9/26/2010 Brady +8 1558 Fitzpatrick +5 1387 79 ✓ 9/14/2009 Brady +22 1663 Edwards +3 1470 81 ✓ 11/9/2008 Cassel -125 1555 Edwards +3 1483 68 ✓ Edited December 17, 2019 by Lurker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jauronimo Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 22 minutes ago, Freddie's Dead said: "This is the Moment" from Jekyll and Hyde is running through my brain right now. It's time for us to into the Razor and beat the Cheats clean. They can deflate footballs, steal our signals on video, have our equipment "lost" at Logan, play WEEI on our headsets when we're driving for the winning score, but it will avail them nothing. This is the week we rise up and destroy the Evil Empire once and for all. Truth, Justice, and the American Way will prevail over those cheatin' scumbags. I can't wait for Saturday to get here. ***** you Zolak, the Bills are comin', so get out the way and watch a real non-cheating team drill you sorry cheatin' ***** back to the Stone Age. GO BILLS!!! I was pretty much resigned to the fact that Brady would go out on top and ride off into the sunset after another Lombardi Trophy. But the Bills have the opportunity this year (with a little help) to beat the Pats, claim the division, and signify an end to this unholy era of Pats dominance. The table is set for a changing of the guard and toppling of an empire in the AFC East. We'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColoradoBills Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 1 hour ago, HeHateMe said: There has never been a more winnable game in Foxboro vs Brady than this one. "That's the fact Jack"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted December 17, 2019 Author Share Posted December 17, 2019 https://sports.yahoo.com/stats-show-why-bills-defense-170835096.html These stats show why Bills defense is difficult test for Tom Brady, Patriots offense Just how good is the Bills defense, exactly? Let's look at several key defensive stats (with league rank in parenthesis). Points allowed/game: 15.9 (2nd) Total yards allowed/game: 291.9 (3rd) Pass yards allowed/game: 190.5 (3rd) Pass TD allowed: 13 (T-2nd) Total TD allowed: 24 (2nd) Sacks: 42 (7th) Interceptions: 13 (8th) QB rating: 76.7 (2nd) 3rd Down: 34.8 percent (6th) The Bills do not control their own destiny in the division title race. For Buffalo to win the division, it must beat the Patriots and New York Jets to close the regular season, combined with New England losing both of its final two games to the Bills and Miami Dolphins. It's unlikely the Bills will win the division, but going into Gillette Stadium and beating the Patriots is a very real possibility for Buffalo. The Bills defense is one of the league's best, and there's plenty of evidence to suggest this unit is capable of shutting down a Patriots offense that's averaging just 20.3 points over its last six games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Brown Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 4 hours ago, Warcodered said: Considering how our schedule had us playing easier teams in the front half and tough ones in the back it's pretty impressive that their numbers have actually gotten better as the year has gone on. The big difference is limiting those chunk running plays as the Eagles scored 31 points against this defense (10 higher than any other game this year). Just shows what a good offense the Eagles have when they have their plethora of weapons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDH Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 I just heard an interesting stat. Since week 7 the offense with the lowest yards per play in the entire NFL is...The New England Patriots. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColoradoBills Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, MDH said: I just heard an interesting stat. Since week 7 the offense with the lowest yards per play in the entire NFL is...The New England Patriots. I can believe that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted December 17, 2019 Author Share Posted December 17, 2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 3 hours ago, YoloinOhio said: It’s bizzaro world to not be “In the Hunt” Unfortunately, we also weren't "In the Hunt" for many years for the wrong reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 21 hours ago, 32ABBA said: Gatorade....pfft. Who needs to emulate the Giants.... it's lame. Come up with our own celebration. When we win a playoff game, I would love to see McDermott "crowd surfing" the locker room like Bease did. Entirely doable, and he is fit enough to muscle his legs up and come out safely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 3 hours ago, Lurker said: Good bulletin board material: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-we-learned-from-a-very-confusing-week-15-in-the-nfl/?addata=espn:nfl:teams DEC. 16, 2019, AT 2:58 PM What We Learned From A Very Confusing Week 15 In The NFL A FiveThirtyEight Chat Over in the AFC, the Bills are legit, with a convincing win over the Steelers on Sunday night. Buffalo has New England in Week 16. Do the Bills need to beat the Pats to prove themselves as a contender? joshua.hermsmeyer: The Bills … are legit? neil: Playoff bound! Big deal for a team that’s only made it one other time since 1999. sara.ziegler: They’re playing well! They even looked good against the Ravens last week! Salfino: I have thought for weeks that they are the poor man’s Ravens. But Lamar Jackson is just so much better than Josh Allen, whether it’s him or the coaching (very likely him). joshua.hermsmeyer: If the Bills move Allen to wide receiver, I think they might make some noise in the playoffs. Salfino: If Allen had just been a game manager in the Bills’ last meeting with the Patriots, the Bills would have won. But this is the problem with the Bills. When he’s not turning the ball over, Allen is failing to make basic NFL throws. He’s a high-variance QB and actually, I believe, a bad fit for a team like this. (In fairness, Allen was knocked out of that game early after being hit in the head, but not before he threw three picks.) joshua.hermsmeyer: But a completion percentage 14 percentage points below expected in Week 15 is Not Great. Salfino: Seriously, the Bills would be better off trying to have Allen run for 75 yards per game. But Allen is more of a power runner like Cam Newton than a gifted runner like Jackson. So maybe his injury risk with this volume is too great. sara.ziegler: So … will the Bills beat the Pats? Salfino: Nope. joshua.hermsmeyer: Nah. Our model has the game at 68 percent for the Pats. sara.ziegler: NO ONE wants to take a flier on the Bills? ? neil: I will say this: That’s the lowest win prob the Pats have had at home against the Bills since Matt Cassel was starting for New England. The Pats look vulnerable at home … by Pats-Bills standards Starting quarterbacks, Elo ratings and pregame win probabilities for the last 12 Patriots home games against the Bills, 2008-19 PATRIOTS BILLS DATE STARTER QB ADJ. EFFECTIVE ELO STARTER QB ADJ. EFFECTIVE ELO NE WIN% NE WON? 12/21/2019 Brady -28 1645 Allen +11 1572 68% ??? 12/23/2018 Brady +2 1626 Allen +49 1418 82 ✓ 12/24/2017 Brady -8 1694 Taylor +10 1509 80 ✓ 10/2/2016 Brissett -52 1593 Taylor +2 1505 70 11/23/2015 Brady +20 1733 Taylor -27 1523 80 ✓ 12/28/2014 Brady +12 1739 Orton +13 1513 84 12/29/2013 Brady -4 1669 Lewis -59 1398 87 ✓ 11/11/2012 Brady +17 1702 Fitzpatrick +6 1465 86 ✓ 1/1/2012 Brady +20 1736 Fitzpatrick 0 1399 91 ✓ 9/26/2010 Brady +8 1558 Fitzpatrick +5 1387 79 ✓ 9/14/2009 Brady +22 1663 Edwards +3 1470 81 ✓ 11/9/2008 Cassel -125 1555 Edwards +3 1483 68 ✓ I want a "Buffalo Vs Everyone" hoodie sooOOOOoooo badly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warcodered Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said: I wouldn't want to play a full game with our guys after giving that cheap shot to our QB at the end of the last game either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 15 minutes ago, Warcodered said: I wouldn't want to play a full game with our guys after giving that cheap shot to our QB at the end of the last game either. Love that scene! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cruiserplayer Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Belichick Tuesday presser: https://www.patriots.com/video/bill-belichick-12-16-big-challenge-for-us-here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 24 minutes ago, Cruiserplayer said: Belichick Tuesday presser: https://www.patriots.com/video/bill-belichick-12-16-big-challenge-for-us-here Gumble grumble I don't know about the tapes. Grumble grumble we're focused on Buffalo. Grumble grumble chicken. I didn't watch it so let me know if I summarized it correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fan in Chicago Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 58 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said: If he plays , once the Bills have the game in hand , I would want someone on the O to give Jones an extra hard shove Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 11 minutes ago, Fan in Chicago said: If he plays , once the Bills have the game in hand , I would want someone on the O to give Jones an extra hard shove Cody Ford wanted a piece of him last time so wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t let him forget Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted December 17, 2019 Author Share Posted December 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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