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revisiting 2018 draft possibilities. Did we overpay?


Pete

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I love Josh, and I'm happy he is the Bills QB.  That being said, me, and several others lobbied to hold onto all our draft picks, trade back if anything, and stand pat and draft Lamar Jackson.  We got ridiculed by many.

 

Alphadawg created a whole thread, The Case For Lamar Jackson.

 

Let the record state on 3/28/18- I am extremely against trading up into top 6 for QB- and massively overpaying.  The opportunity cost of squandering picks 12, 22, 53, 56, 65, 96 and a 2019 1st(which will be a high draft pick if we sacrifice drafts for a rookie QB).  Impact players that the Bills could miss out on(and whom would instantly upgrade Bills starters) include:

Roquan Smith, Derwin James, Vita Vea, Tremaine Edmunds, Isiah Wynn, Will Hernandez, Billy Price, Frank Ragnow, Denzel Ward, Lamar Jackson, Ronald Jones, Guice,  Vander Esch, James Washington, Cortland Sutton, Mike Hughes, Nick Chubb, Marcus Davenport, Mata’afa, Rashan Evans, Taven Bryan, Harrison Phillips, Josh Jackson, Christian Kirk, Hayden Hurst, Payne, Equanemius, Baker, Sam Hubbard, Ballage, etc.

 

Imagine if we stayed pat(or even better traded back)- the depth we would have on this team. Moral of the story- don't trade up, keep your picks,stockpile draft picks, let the board come to you

 

 

 

We could have 7 of the above and all our draft picks.  Or we can risk it all on a QB ad give all that up.

Please revisit and either give me **** or give me props.  Peace out

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Just now, Virgil said:

No.  It’s been said in a few places that the Cards wanted Allen. That’s why we traded up.  
 

Now, will be be worthy of such a pick?  Check back in January of next year 

so let them.  We stand pat, and draft Lamar Jackson then.  

Just now, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Let’s revisit this in 5 years. The style of quarterback Lamar plays has shown it doesn’t have a long shelf life. 

fair enough.  Josh is an athletic freak himself.  He might very well end up being the right move

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Just now, Pete said:

so let them.  We stand pat, and draft Lamar Jackson then.  


He went last for a reason.  Stop with the hindsight.  It was one of the most QB needy drafts in recent memory and everyone passed on him. 
 

Also, Lamar isn’t who he is right now if he’s not playing in that Roman offense.  Right place, right time. 

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Just now, Virgil said:


He went last for a reason.  Stop with the hindsight.  It was one of the most QB needy drafts in recent memory and everyone passed on him. 
 

Also, Lamar isn’t who he is right now if he’s not playing in that Roman offense.  Right place, right time. 

3/28/18 is not hindsight brother

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2 minutes ago, Pete said:

so let them.  We stand pat, and draft Lamar Jackson then.  

fair enough.  Josh is an athletic freak himself.  He might very well end up being the right move

No one should ever trade up, unless you going to get a blue chip franchise QB at the top of the draft.

 

That's my rule at least.

 

McBeane love to trade up all the time and have been burned by it.

 

 

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You move up for a franchise quarterback if you think you need to.  You better be right though (see Trubisky, Leaf, RG3, etc.).  Although not great of late, I don't think the Eagles regret trading up for Wentz.  I don't think the Chiefs regret trading up for Mahomes.  Donahoe by all reports was trying to find a trading partner to move up for Roethlisberger.

 

I'm more hesitant with other positions but if you think that guy will help your football team immensely and he won't last unless you make a move then go for it.

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12 minutes ago, Pete said:

I love Josh, and I'm happy he is the Bills QB.  That being said, me, and several others lobbied to hold onto all our draft picks, trade back if anything, and stand pat and draft Lamar Jackson.  We got ridiculed by many.

 

Alphadawg created a whole thread, The Case For Lamar Jackson.

 

Let the record state on 3/28/18- I am extremely against trading up into top 6 for QB- and massively overpaying.  The opportunity cost of squandering picks 12, 22, 53, 56, 65, 96 and a 2019 1st(which will be a high draft pick if we sacrifice drafts for a rookie QB).  Impact players that the Bills could miss out on(and whom would instantly upgrade Bills starters) include:

Roquan Smith, Derwin James, Vita Vea, Tremaine Edmunds, Isiah Wynn, Will Hernandez, Billy Price, Frank Ragnow, Denzel Ward, Lamar Jackson, Ronald Jones, Guice,  Vander Esch, James Washington, Cortland Sutton, Mike Hughes, Nick Chubb, Marcus Davenport, Mata’afa, Rashan Evans, Taven Bryan, Harrison Phillips, Josh Jackson, Christian Kirk, Hayden Hurst, Payne, Equanemius, Baker, Sam Hubbard, Ballage, etc.

 

Imagine if we stayed pat(or even better traded back)- the depth we would have on this team. Moral of the story- don't trade up, keep your picks,stockpile draft picks, let the board come to you

 

 

 

We could have 7 of the above and all our draft picks.  Or we can risk it all on a QB ad give all that up.

Please revisit and either give me **** or give me props.  Peace out

 

Wait, what?  We picked 7, 16, 96 in the first three rounds of 2018 and at 9 in the first in 2019.  So we essentially traded 12, 22, 53, 56, and 65 for 7 and 16 (we also got 154 [Siran Neal] from BAL but we're just talking first three rounds I guess).

 

So we have Allen, Edmunds, Harrison Phillips.  Are there a couple of guys in that list above I'd love to add?  Sure, and we might have gotten a couple of them had we stood pat and kept the extra three picks (maybe even still getting Edmunds and Phillips!).  There's also a few that look like busts at the moment.  I don't think the sky fell quite like Alphadawg thought it might by trading up. 

Edited by LeviF91
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13 minutes ago, Virgil said:


He went last for a reason.  Stop with the hindsight.  It was one of the most QB needy drafts in recent memory and everyone passed on him. 
 

Also, Lamar isn’t who he is right now if he’s not playing in that Roman offense.  Right place, right time. 

the last part

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9 minutes ago, Pete said:

or learn from past mistakes

Who’s going to be doing all this learning  ? Fans don’t make the picks. If too many wrong moves are made, those who make them will pay with their jobs. It’s still too early to say if that will happen here. I have to concur with the thinking that L Jackson is running an unorthodox, creative scheme. The Bills don’t have those coaches, and would probably want him to be a pocket passer. Most NFL types don’t think outside the box in that way, as seen during the combine prior to that draft. Many though of Jackson as a WR at the NFL level. Bills fans will know a lot more at the end of the 2020 season, and it may be that Beane and co are on the hot seat by then. 

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This love obsession over a 1 dimensional QB is starting to become the stuff of legend. Time has proven running QBs get figured out, injured and fade out. Why do you think we're encouraging Josh to be an "actual" QB? Yes the Ravens scheme is flashy and exciting, and dare I say sexy. But we've all read this story before so why is the ending different in this case? He's a brilliant athlete with lightning speed and elusiveness. But he's an average passer that will be asked to do more once the whole 3 TE set thing gets figured out, and it will. And that's if he doesn't suffer an injury or a series of concussions first. 

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32 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Let’s revisit this in 5 years. The style of quarterback Lamar plays has shown it doesn’t have a long shelf life. 

 

I agree, I always thought he would be successful for 4 year then either get injured or lose a step. Now if he wins a Super Bowl this year he is definitely a worthy pick. He does have a knack for avoiding hits so maybe he will be the next Vick.

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Hindsight is how you learn from mistakes.  please stop w the oversimplified dumb statements. 
I’m completely against trading up at any point.  This doesn’t mean I don’t support or like Allen. 
 

Edited by nedboy7
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42 minutes ago, Virgil said:


He went last for a reason.  Stop with the hindsight.  It was one of the most QB needy drafts in recent memory and everyone passed on him. 
 

Also, Lamar isn’t who he is right now if he’s not playing in that Roman offense.  Right place, right time. 

 

I hate this argument.  If a guy can play he could play, stop it with the BS of oh he is in the perfect environment that is why he is good crap.  Same thing with mahomes.  Mahomes would be successful on any team in the league because he is super talented. 

Edited by Gordio
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1 minute ago, Gordio said:

 

I hate this argument.  If a guy can play he could play, stop it with the BS of oh he is in the perfect environment that is why he is good crap.  Same thing with mahomes.  Mahomes would be successful on any team in the league because he is super talented. 

 

And your evidence for this is....

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Hindsight always assumes identical outcomes without considering all the factors. Lamar would not be doing here, what he is in Baltimore, period 

4 minutes ago, Gordio said:

 

I hate this argument.  If a guy can play he could play, stop it with the BS of oh he is in the perfect environment that is why he is good crap.  Same thing with mahomes.  Mahomes would be successful on any team in the league because he is super talented. 

Drew Brees begs to differ with you, Alex Smith as well

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5 minutes ago, Gordio said:

 

I hate this argument.  If a guy can play he could play, stop it with the BS of oh he is in the perfect environment that is why he is good crap.  Same thing with mahomes.  Mahomes would be successful on any team in the league because he is super talented. 

No one is arguing Mahomes wouldn't be good with different teams around him what people argue is that he wouldn't have the gaudy stats that he's gotten playing on a team with so many weapons.

 

The argument about Lamar is different his offense is unique and seems very tailored to his unique playstyle. So I don't think it's ridiculous to say he wouldn't be doing near as well in a different system.

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Here's how I think we need to look at it. If Josh becomes a 10-15 year franchise guy then it was worth it. If not, then no. Lamar is going to give you 5-8 years playing this style. That's why he fell. If your argument is no one saw this coming from him then I call BS. He was electric in college and won the Heisman. It seemed pretty clear at the time you could build your offense around his skill set and win right away in this modern NFL where you can't hit people.   

 

We picked Josh for the long-term upside. The issue is most guys who don't show glimpses of being a franchise QB within the first two years rarely ever get there. Hopefully Josh can buck the trend.

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55 minutes ago, LeviF91 said:

I don't think the sky fell quite like Alphadawg thought it might by trading up. 


Huh?  Where did I say the sky was falling?  I was never against trading up, i was against trading a bounty into the top 5.

 

I liked Lamar and was fine staying put and taking him.  But by the time draft night came around, Allen was #2 on my board behind Baker and was quite fine with the trade up we did do.  I don’t feel like it was too much to get the guy they coveted.  Top 5 would have cost both our firsts (so no Edmunds) and possible our next years 1 or 2.  Did not want to pay that much.  
 

I did not want to give up what it would take to get inside top 5 though, nor did we need to.  I said all the way leading up to draft that neither Giants or Broncos would take a QB and that only 2 QBs would go top 5 and we didn’t need to trade that high.

 

 

Edited by Alphadawg7
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58 minutes ago, Pete said:

3/28/18 is not hindsight brother

This is hindsight so do you give kc crap cause they traded up for mahomes. Cause they could of stayed pat and drafted defensive players 

 

27 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

Hindsight is how you learn from mistakes.  please stop w the oversimplified dumb statements. 
I’m completely against trading up at any point.  This doesn’t mean I don’t support or like Allen. 
 

No not true at all. The draft is a gamble with hits and misses at every turn. Never know what you get till you get it

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