2019 Playoffs. 1st round

[CLTbills]

LETS GOOOOOOOOOOO

Just now, SlimShady'sGhost said:

FWIW.

 

Cleveland and Oakland ELIMINATED

 

Which helps us. 

 

Chance to make playoffs even with losing out - which will NOT happen unless there's a bus crash or something - is up 20 % higher than it was to start the day.

[CLTbills]

I was listening to the pregame show on WGR and they raised an interesting question. 

If we lose out and still make the playoffs, how do you end up feeling about the season? Gotta be a disappointment if that happens.

 

Good thing it wont - LET'S GO!!

[BillsFanSD]

This is a weird scenario, but according to 538 we clinch a playoff berth with a loss by Tennessee to Houston in week 17 no matter what happens in any other game.  I don't pretend to understand the math behind that one -- it seems like the Colts should still have some kind of chance to catch us, but I guess not.

[Doc]

8 minutes ago, BillsFanSD said:

This is a weird scenario, but according to 538 we clinch a playoff berth with a loss by Tennessee to Houston in week 17 no matter what happens in any other game.  I don't pretend to understand the math behind that one -- it seems like the Colts should still have some kind of chance to catch us, but I guess not.

 

The Bills win the tie-breaker over the Colts and Titans if they all finish 9-7. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 hour ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

FWIW.

 

Cleveland and Oakland ELIMINATED

 

correction IF Steelers win 

 

[4merper4mer]

1 hour ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

Sunday Night Football” (8:20 p.m., NBC) was flexed to give us the AFC wild-card battle between the Steelers and the visiting Bills. Buffalo can clinch a playoff spot with a win (and is still alive to catch the Patriots for the AFC East title), and the Steelers are trying to catch the Bills for the No. 5 wild-card berth, which is important since the No. 6 team is probably going to have to face the Chiefs in the wild-card round as opposed to traveling to Houston or Tennessee. This line stood at -1 and -1¹/₂ at most sportsbooks heading into the weekend. The short spread tells us the Steelers are only favored due to home-field advantage and that the Bills are the (slightly) better team. I agree
 

 

https://nypost.com/2019/12/15/bills-vs-steelers-josh-allen-is-ready-for-this-moment/
 

The ridiculous write up above concludes KC can't possibly get he 2 seed meaning we can't possibly beat the Pats next week.  Eff that and eff them.

[Doogie]

Allen is flat out awful! Gotta draft another qb 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

We did it!!!!!!!!

 

59 minutes ago, Doogie said:

Allen is flat out awful! Gotta draft another qb 

thanks for trolling 

 

come again soon. 
 

 

Cleveland and Oakland ELIMINATED

[djp14150]

8 hours ago, The Red King said:

If we win tonght, we clinch a wild card.  With the Titans' loss, would a win tonight clinch the #5 seed (barring winning the AFCE, of course)?

 

Buffalo can't be 6th seed.

 

other playoffs...

 

 

nfc

 

 

 

dal/Phil play next week.  Dallas clinch division with win. Phi. Win they are in control.

 

 

Minn needs to lose 2 and Rams need to win 2 to get the last WC.

 

Seattle wins a tie wth NO and GB. If they all win out

NO over seattle

SF over go and NO

 

 

gb magic number is 1 to clinch division

 

it looks like SF-SEA game would be week 17  NBC game.

 

 

for afc

 

 

bills WC

 

Steelers get to 10 wins they get WC  Houston has the edge on them at 9-7. Pitt has edge on ten and indy

 

 

Houston magic number is 1 for division title

 

tenessee. For WC they needed to win out and have Pitt not win 2

 

At 12-4 KC has edge on NE and buffalo for seeding. They lose and Houston wins out for 11-5 then Houston get the edge in sorting.  They also get the edge on NE at 11-5 if NE lose to BUF and then they both lose week 17.

 

BAL needs to win one to earn a bye and earn home field. If buf beat NE they earn a bye.

 

 

random thought........

 

it it be nice as a penalty for cheating Buf get the tiebreaker if they are tied for first.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

3 hours ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

 

Cleveland ELIMINATED

 

 

That's a REAL shame, isn't it, @thenorthremembers

[McBean]

How come we can’t win AFC East without New England losing out?

[Boatdrinks]

8 minutes ago, McBean said:

How come we can’t win AFC East without New England losing out?

Common opponents record. They beat PHL and CLE.. Have to get em on division record so they have to lose to MIA 

[RocCityRoller]

11 minutes ago, McBean said:

How come we can’t win AFC East without New England losing out?

tie breakers

 

New England Beat Cleveland and Philadelphia

Buffalo lost to them

 

if New England and Buffalo both end up 12-4 same record

then head to head would be 1-1

then both would be 5-1 against the AFC East

then it's common opponents

Edited December 16, 2019 by RocCityRoller

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

7 hours ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

That's a REAL shame, isn't it, @thenorthremembers

 

Are you sure...  I haven't seen him or her recently   

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

2 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

 

Are you sure...  I haven't seen him or her recently   

 

In a season full of ridiculously hot takes, that one was thermonuclear.

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

NFL   http://www.nfl.com/playoffs/playoff-picture

 

ESPN Playoff Machine   http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

 

ESPN standings    https://www.espn.com/nfl/standings/_/view/playoff

 

NYT    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/upshot/nfl-playoff-picture.html      > 99% to make it.  ????  > 99 LOL 

 

CBS    https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standings/playoffrace

• PLAYOFF PICTURE SCENARIOS: WEEK 15

   

  AFC SCENARIOS:		NFC SCENARIOS:
  No remaining AFC clinch scenarios for Week 15.		No remaining NFC clinch scenarios for Week 15.
  AFC CLINCHES:		NFC CLINCHES:
  BALTIMORE clinched a playoff berth (Week 14), the AFC North division title (Week 15) KANSAS CITY clinched the AFC West division title (Week 14) NEW ENGLAND clinched a playoff berth (Week 15) BUFFALO clinched a playoff berth (Week 15)		NEW ORLEANS clinched the NFC South division title (Week 13) SEATTLE clinched a playoff berth (Week 15) SAN FRANCISCO clinched a playoff berth (Week 15) GREEN BAY clinched a playoff berth (Week 15)

  During the regular season, the seeds reflect how the playoffs would stand if the season ended up to that point. The NFL playoffs are not based on a pure bracket system. In the divisional playoffs, the No. 1 seed is assured of playing the lowest-seeded Wild Card survivor. There are no restrictions on intra-division games and the higher seed of any matchup will have home-field advantage.

 

 

AFC
SEED	TEAM	DIVISION	RECORD
1	(y) Baltimore	North	12-2-0
2	(x) New England	East	11-3-0
3	(y) Kansas City	West	10-4-0
4	Houston	South	9-5-0
5	(x) Buffalo	East	10-4-0
6	Pittsburgh	North	8-6-0
STILL ALIVE
SEED	TEAM	DIVISION	RECORD
7	Tennessee	South	8-6-0
8	Indianapolis	South	6-7-0

 

Colts may be eliminated tonight if I heard correctly last night. 

 

With 10 wins the Bills are LOCKED in at the 5 seed.  

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

 

Pittsburgh Wins tie break over Tennessee based on best win percentage in conference games.

 

Odd NFL doesn't list them as eliminated Yet the SNF crew said they were 

Cleveland and Oakland 

 

Eliminated	W	L	T	DIV	CONF
Jaguars	5	9	0	1-4	5-6
Broncos	5	9	0	2-3	5-6
Chargers	5	9	0	0-4	3-7
Jets	5	9	0	1-4	2-8
Dolphins	3	11	0	1-4	2-8
Bengals	1	13	0	0-5	1-9

 

 

Eliminated	W	L	T	DIV	CONF
Bears	7	7	0	3-2	6-5
Buccaneers	7	7	0	2-3	5-6
Falcons	5	9	0	3-2	5-6
Panthers	5	9	0	1-4	2-9
Cardinals	4	9	1	0-4	2-7-1
Lions	3	10	1	0-5	2-8-1
Giants	3	11	0	1-3	2-8
Redskins	3	11	0	0-4	2-8

Edited December 16, 2019 by SlimShady'sGhost

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

 

 

 

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

5. Buffalo Bills (10-4) - x

The Bills clinched a playoff spot Sunday night by defeating the Steelers. And Buffalo isn't out of the AFC East race, either. As unlikely as it might seem, the Bills could overtake the Patriots by winning their final two games -- including next Saturday at New England -- and having the Patriots lose again in Week 17 to the Dolphins. But for now, the Bills will celebrate their second trip to the playoffs in the past three seasons.

Next up: at New England

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28298526/2019-nfl-playoff-picture-afc-nfc-standings-seeds-scenarios-outlook-week-15

 

 

[The Red King]

49 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

 

Pittsburgh Wins tie break over Tennessee based on best win percentage in conference games.

 

Odd NFL doesn't list them as eliminated Yet the SNF crew said they were 

Cleveland and Oakland 

 

Eliminated	W	L	T	DIV	CONF
Jaguars	5	9	0	1-4	5-6
Broncos	5	9	0	2-3	5-6
Chargers	5	9	0	0-4	3-7
Jets	5	9	0	1-4	2-8
Dolphins	3	11	0	1-4	2-8
Bengals	1	13	0	0-5	1-9

 

 

Eliminated	W	L	T	DIV	CONF
Bears	7	7	0	3-2	6-5
Buccaneers	7	7	0	2-3	5-6
Falcons	5	9	0	3-2	5-6
Panthers	5	9	0	1-4	2-9
Cardinals	4	9	1	0-4	2-7-1
Lions	3	10	1	0-5	2-8-1
Giants	3	11	0	1-3	2-8
Redskins	3	11	0	0-4	2-8

 

Would Indy somehow squeek in if they got into a three way tie, perhaps? ?

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 minute ago, The Red King said:

 

Would Indy somehow squeek in if they got into a three way tie, perhaps? ?

TIEBREAKERS

AFC tiebreakers:

• Pittsburgh is ahead of Tennessee based on conference record (6-4 to the Titans' 6-5).

 

Not listed BUT the Colts have to win out to stand a chance 

 

[thenorthremembers]

9 hours ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

That's a REAL shame, isn't it, @thenorthremembers

Lol.  Couldnt be more happy I was wrong.

[RichRiderBills]

4 % to win AFCE seems like some sort of unrealistically low PFF garbage.

 

Odds of bills beating pats are probably like 35 to 40 percent, and odds of Pats losing to phins is probably 20 percent or maybe a little better.

 

Dont see how both happening could get that low.

 

 

Edited December 16, 2019 by RichRiderBills

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

7 minutes ago, RichRiderBills said:

4 % to win AFCE seems like some sort of unrealistically low PFF garbage.

 

Odds of bills beating pats are probably like 35 to 40 percent, and odds of Pats losing to phins is probably 20 percent or maybe a little better.

 

Dont see how both happening could get that low.

 

The "odds" of the Bills beating the Patriots are good IMO.

The "odds" of Miami beating the Patriots are minuscule IMO.

[Foxx]

1 hour ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

... With 10 wins the Bills are LOCKED in at the 5 seed.  

 

i don't think we're, 'locked' at the 5th seed. theoretically, we could finish as high as 2nd or anywhere in between. but definitely no lower than 5th. 

[BillsFanSD]

23 minutes ago, RichRiderBills said:

4 % to win AFCE seems like some sort of unrealistically low PFF garbage.

 

Odds of bills beating pats are probably like 35 to 40 percent, and odds of Pats losing to phins is probably 20 percent or maybe a little better.

 

Dont see how both happening could get that low.

 

 

Let's say there's a 30% chance that we beat New England, a 20% chance that New England loses to Miami, and a 75% chance that we beat the Jets.

 

0.3 X 0.2 X 0.75 = 4.5%

[DJB]

5 minutes ago, BillsFanSD said:

Let's say there's a 30% chance that we beat New England, a 20% chance that New England loses to Miami, and a 75% chance that we beat the Jets.

 

0.3 X 0.2 X 0.75 = 4.5%

 

 

[buffalobillswin]

I really hope the Bills have earned not playing on Saturday at 4:30 in the playoffs. 
 

I want a Saturday night or Sunday game!

[TigerJ]

2 hours ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

NFL   http://www.nfl.com/playoffs/playoff-picture

 

ESPN Playoff Machine   http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

 

ESPN standings    https://www.espn.com/nfl/standings/_/view/playoff

 

NYT    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/upshot/nfl-playoff-picture.html      > 99% to make it.  ????  > 99 LOL 

 

CBS    https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standings/playoffrace

• PLAYOFF PICTURE SCENARIOS: WEEK 15

   

  AFC SCENARIOS:		NFC SCENARIOS:
  No remaining AFC clinch scenarios for Week 15.		No remaining NFC clinch scenarios for Week 15.
  AFC CLINCHES:		NFC CLINCHES:
  BALTIMORE clinched a playoff berth (Week 14), the AFC North division title (Week 15) KANSAS CITY clinched the AFC West division title (Week 14) NEW ENGLAND clinched a playoff berth (Week 15) BUFFALO clinched a playoff berth (Week 15)		NEW ORLEANS clinched the NFC South division title (Week 13) SEATTLE clinched a playoff berth (Week 15) SAN FRANCISCO clinched a playoff berth (Week 15) GREEN BAY clinched a playoff berth (Week 15)

  During the regular season, the seeds reflect how the playoffs would stand if the season ended up to that point. The NFL playoffs are not based on a pure bracket system. In the divisional playoffs, the No. 1 seed is assured of playing the lowest-seeded Wild Card survivor. There are no restrictions on intra-division games and the higher seed of any matchup will have home-field advantage.

 

 

AFC
SEED	TEAM	DIVISION	RECORD
1	(y) Baltimore	North	12-2-0
2	(x) New England	East	11-3-0
3	(y) Kansas City	West	10-4-0
4	Houston	South	9-5-0
5	(x) Buffalo	East	10-4-0
6	Pittsburgh	North	8-6-0
STILL ALIVE
SEED	TEAM	DIVISION	RECORD
7	Tennessee	South	8-6-0
8	Indianapolis	South	6-7-0

 

Colts may be eliminated tonight if I heard correctly last night. 

 

With 10 wins the Bills are LOCKED in at the 5 seed.  

 

Yup.  There are two teams below them that can match 10 wins, but Buffalo owns the first tie breaker on both of them (head to head).  I admit though that I haven't looked at how it works if the Titans managed to go on and win the AFC South .  Could Houston end up with 10 wins?  What would the tiebreaker be there?

[CorkScrewHill]

1 hour ago, The Red King said:

 

Would Indy somehow squeek in if they got into a three way tie, perhaps? ?

 

They have a lot of variables that have to go their way .. currently listed at less than a 1% chance.

Edited December 16, 2019 by CorkScrewHill

[BillsFanSD]

39 minutes ago, TigerJ said:

I admit though that I haven't looked at how it works if the Titans managed to go on and win the AFC South .  Could Houston end up with 10 wins?  What would the tiebreaker be there?

If Houston gets to 10 wins, they win the AFCS even if Tennessee wins out.  (Conference record, I think).

[CorkScrewHill]

1 hour ago, Foxx said:

i don't think we're, 'locked' at the 5th seed. theoretically, we could finish as high as 2nd or anywhere in between. but definitely no lower than 5th. 

2nd seed if Bills win out, pats lose out, and Chiefs lose 1;

3rd seed if Bills win out, pats lose out; and Chiefs win out;

5th seed any other scenario.  We cannot be the 4th seed as for us to win the division we would need to win out and the Texans could not catch us in that scenario.

[aristocrat]

4 minutes ago, CorkScrewHill said:

2nd seed if Bills win out, pats lose out, and Chiefs lose 1;

3rd seed if Bills win out, pats lose out; and Chiefs win out;

5th seed any other scenario.  We cannot be the 4th seed as for us to win the division we would need to win out and the Texans could not catch us in that scenario.

 

Great info.  3 seed would amazing and a home playoff game likely against steelers. pats would have to go to houston where they already lost this year. We'd likely have a nice win

[eball]

1 hour ago, buffalobillswin said:

I really hope the Bills have earned not playing on Saturday at 4:30 in the playoffs. 
 

I want a Saturday night or Sunday game!

 

Well, we've gone from "just happy to be here" to demanding specific time slots in a hurry, haven't we!

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

1 hour ago, TigerJ said:

Yup.  There are two teams below them that can match 10 wins, but Buffalo owns the first tie breaker on both of them (head to head).  I admit though that I haven't looked at how it works if the Titans managed to go on and win the AFC South .  Could Houston end up with 10 wins?  What would the tiebreaker be there?

 

Looks like Houston would win the tie breaker (division record) against TEN even if they lose to them in week 17. So, if Houston beats Tampa Bay next week I think we are going to Houston unless we win the division.

Edited December 16, 2019 by Chemical

[teef]

they don't have times worked out for these yet...do they?

[billsfanmiami(oh)]

6 minutes ago, teef said:

they don't have times worked out for these yet...do they?

The times are set but they don’t assign the games till after week 17 games end I believe. 

[mannc]

1 hour ago, buffalobillswin said:

I really hope the Bills have earned not playing on Saturday at 4:30 in the playoffs. 
 

I want a Saturday night or Sunday game!

Don’t count on it.

32 minutes ago, CorkScrewHill said:

2nd seed if Bills win out, pats lose out, and Chiefs lose 1;

3rd seed if Bills win out, pats lose out; and Chiefs win out;

5th seed any other scenario.  We cannot be the 4th seed as for us to win the division we would need to win out and the Texans could not catch us in that scenario.

Why would Chiefs be ahead of us?

[MAJBobby]

3 hours ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

NFL   http://www.nfl.com/playoffs/playoff-picture

 

ESPN Playoff Machine   http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

 

ESPN standings    https://www.espn.com/nfl/standings/_/view/playoff

 

NYT    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/upshot/nfl-playoff-picture.html      > 99% to make it.  ????  > 99 LOL 

 

CBS    https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standings/playoffrace

• PLAYOFF PICTURE SCENARIOS: WEEK 15

   

  AFC SCENARIOS:		NFC SCENARIOS:
  No remaining AFC clinch scenarios for Week 15.		No remaining NFC clinch scenarios for Week 15.
  AFC CLINCHES:		NFC CLINCHES:
  BALTIMORE clinched a playoff berth (Week 14), the AFC North division title (Week 15) KANSAS CITY clinched the AFC West division title (Week 14) NEW ENGLAND clinched a playoff berth (Week 15) BUFFALO clinched a playoff berth (Week 15)		NEW ORLEANS clinched the NFC South division title (Week 13) SEATTLE clinched a playoff berth (Week 15) SAN FRANCISCO clinched a playoff berth (Week 15) GREEN BAY clinched a playoff berth (Week 15)

  During the regular season, the seeds reflect how the playoffs would stand if the season ended up to that point. The NFL playoffs are not based on a pure bracket system. In the divisional playoffs, the No. 1 seed is assured of playing the lowest-seeded Wild Card survivor. There are no restrictions on intra-division games and the higher seed of any matchup will have home-field advantage.

 

 

AFC
SEED	TEAM	DIVISION	RECORD
1	(y) Baltimore	North	12-2-0
2	(x) New England	East	11-3-0
3	(y) Kansas City	West	10-4-0
4	Houston	South	9-5-0
5	(x) Buffalo	East	10-4-0
6	Pittsburgh	North	8-6-0
STILL ALIVE
SEED	TEAM	DIVISION	RECORD
7	Tennessee	South	8-6-0
8	Indianapolis	South	6-7-0

 

Colts may be eliminated tonight if I heard correctly last night. 

 

With 10 wins the Bills are LOCKED in at the 5 seed.  

 

 

Man that X looks so nice after week 15

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

26 minutes ago, teef said:

they don't have times worked out for these yet...do they?

playoff games?

 

No   BUT I suspect 2 on Saturday 3:30 is and 8"00 ish

 

and 2 on Sunday  12:30 - 1PM  and then 4:30 

 

11 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

Man that X looks so nice after week 15

it sure does