HOUSE Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 (edited) By Jon Scott Orchard ParkPUBLISHED 7:00 AM ET Sep. 06, 2019 I firmly believe the Bills will go as far this season as Josh Allen will take them. But how far should we expect him to go? https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/rochester/bills/2019/09/05/examining-expectations-for-buffalo-bills-qb-josh-allen Edited September 6, 2019 by HOUSE too much copyright material 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganesh Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 Also, no matter what anyone says, Allen is a Dual threat QB. Last year he had almost equal number of Rushing TD...That should count towards his stats. Having some one like Beasley will help his completion percentage. If Allen came up with the above stats and added another 8 Rushing TD, that would be an incredible Sophomore year. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dopey Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 I'll be happy with: 3200 yds passing 24 Passing TD's 12 INT's No more than 250 YD's rushing(a little over 15 YD's per game) 5 Rushing TD's 58% completion AND...PLAYOFFS!!! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beane/Allen Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 Be smart and limit your mistakes. Hopefully some stats will come with that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billybob71 Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 4 minutes ago, Beane/Allen said: Be smart and limit your mistakes. Hopefully some stats will come with that. actually i hope they spread the field often and let him throw alot and use his athletic ability. yeah there will be mistakes made and maybe some game ending interceptions but let him learn and be aggressive. im not saying never run the ball but lets let this kid PLAY and gain experience this year!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beane/Allen Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 Not saying he should hold back in the process. Just don't force things and make quicker decisions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frogger Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 my expectations.. 3100-3300 yards passing 500-600 rushing (you can't tell him not to, felt when Taylor decided not to run, it limited our offense) 20-23 TD passes (team will have more rushing yards with Gore) 6-8 rushing TDs 62% passing (shorter routes) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HOUSE Posted September 6, 2019 Author Share Posted September 6, 2019 I will be happy with 4500-5000 passing 1000 rushing 40-50 TD passes 10 rushing TDs 74% passing 2 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloHokie13 Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 My projection for Allen is 293/486 (60.3%) 3,431 yards 20 TD 12 INT 34 sacks 107 rushes 679 yards 5 TD 3 FUM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshAllenHasBigHands Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 10 minutes ago, HOUSE said: I will be happy with 4500-5000 passing 1000 rushing 40-50 TD passes 10 rushing TDs 74% passing Anything less and it will be time to look to the draft. I will further claim that I pounded the table for Mahomes, even thought their is no documented evidence this is true. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leh-nerd skin-erd Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 12 minutes ago, HOUSE said: I will be happy with 4500-5000 passing 1000 rushing 40-50 TD passes 10 rushing TDs 74% passing Over how many games? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billybob71 Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, leh-nerd skin-erd said: Over how many games? thats just for the jets game? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aristocrat Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 i wanna see somewhere close to 4000 yards rushing, 25 tds under 10 picks. run game top 3 in league. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HOUSE Posted September 6, 2019 Author Share Posted September 6, 2019 1 hour ago, leh-nerd skin-erd said: Over how many games? 16...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colin Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 30 total touchdowns and he's doing OK, 40 total and he's doing well. 3600 total yards and he's doing decent, that can be adjusted by how well we play special teams and run the ball tho. completion % to me is not as important, conversion rate on 3rd down is, as is turnover rate (on all plays, runs and passes). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshAllenHasBigHands Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 5 minutes ago, colin said: 30 total touchdowns and he's doing OK, 40 total and he's doing well. 3600 total yards and he's doing decent, that can be adjusted by how well we play special teams and run the ball tho. completion % to me is not as important, conversion rate on 3rd down is, as is turnover rate (on all plays, runs and passes). You realize your definition of "well" in terms of TDs would put him at second in the NFL in TDs in 2018? Your definition of just "OK" would put him top 10. Woof. High bar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
badassgixxer05 Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 Allen is not a high volume passing QB, and this offense wont be designed to make him be one either. We are still going to be pounding the rock and relying on good defense this year. Allen will hit the big pass plays here and there, but not going to all of a sudden put up Mahomes numbers like some of you are wishing for. OP numbers are prob just about where he will fall at end of year. Will be growth from last year, and with good D and a running game that should put us in the playoffs or at least close to it. Should be a fun year still! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjt328 Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 Not sure going by the "average" numbers from these 15 quarterbacks is a going to be an accurate measurement. Quite simply.... some QBs get better with experience and development. These guys become stars, franchise quarterbacks and solid starters. Some QBs hit a wall and fail to progress. In some cases they get worse as defenses catch-on to their tendencies. These guys turn into busts. For example, Jared Goff's completion percentage jumped by nearly 8 points from his rookie season to Year 2. He went from a 5-7 TD-INT line to 28-7, and increased his yards per game by almost 100. Meanwhile, Robert Griffin III was a Pro Bowler as a rookie, and went steadily downhill afterwards. His completion percentage dropped by 5 points. His TD-INT ration went from 20-5 to 16-12. His yards per game went up, but his yards per attempt dropped from 8.1 to 7.0. In my opinion, you aren't getting a realistic picture by averaging out the results from Goff and Griffin. One guy got better. One guy got worse. How much does Allen's processing/understanding improve? How about his mechanics and accuracy? How will he respond to defenses focusing on stopping his scrambles? Hard to quantify that by looking at a dozen or so completely different players, and averaging out their stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clearwater cadet Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 i just hope he doesnt pull a Trubisky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colin Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 48 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said: You realize your definition of "well" in terms of TDs would put him at second in the NFL in TDs in 2018? Your definition of just "OK" would put him top 10. Woof. High bar. he was what, 20 total TDs last year in his first season on a horrible O in like 12 or 13 games? This is based on my expectations of him becoming a great QB, mind you, but it's not that massive of a change for him to have 50% more total TDs in his second year with 25% more games and improving, is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshAllenHasBigHands Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 1 minute ago, colin said: he was what, 20 total TDs last year in his first season on a horrible O in like 12 or 13 games? This is based on my expectations of him becoming a great QB, mind you, but it's not that massive of a change for him to have 50% more total TDs in his second year with 25% more games and improving, is it? Yeah, I suppose it is complicated by the fact that he ran for some many touchdowns. I think most people talk about Allen's improvement, and what they are really saying is he needs to be a better passer. If he hit that passing TD increase, it would be an unprecedented improvement. If you are talking about passing and rushing TDs, I suppose I don't think it is out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jletha Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 33 minutes ago, mjt328 said: Not sure going by the "average" numbers from these 15 quarterbacks is a going to be an accurate measurement. Quite simply.... some QBs get better with experience and development. These guys become stars, franchise quarterbacks and solid starters. Some QBs hit a wall and fail to progress. In some cases they get worse as defenses catch-on to their tendencies. These guys turn into busts. For example, Jared Goff's completion percentage jumped by nearly 8 points from his rookie season to Year 2. He went from a 5-7 TD-INT line to 28-7, and increased his yards per game by almost 100. Meanwhile, Robert Griffin III was a Pro Bowler as a rookie, and went steadily downhill afterwards. His completion percentage dropped by 5 points. His TD-INT ration went from 20-5 to 16-12. His yards per game went up, but his yards per attempt dropped from 8.1 to 7.0. In my opinion, you aren't getting a realistic picture by averaging out the results from Goff and Griffin. One guy got better. One guy got worse. How much does Allen's processing/understanding improve? How about his mechanics and accuracy? How will he respond to defenses focusing on stopping his scrambles? Hard to quantify that by looking at a dozen or so completely different players, and averaging out their stats. I think this is exactly why you average them... My concern is that Josh was at the bottom of the stats for those guys. I would be more interested in seeing a comparison of all of the guys that had stats similar to his in year 1 compared to year 2. Just saying hes a top 10 pick doesnt provide the correct reference frame for improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick Duffy Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 (edited) He will also have a better WR unit to throw to this time as well. All those things will come into play here, but yes I am hoping (and expect) his play to improve quite a bit with the WRs alone that he has this season and improved Oline. Edited September 6, 2019 by Patrick_Duffy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ta111 Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 27 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said: Yeah, I suppose it is complicated by the fact that he ran for some many touchdowns. I think most people talk about Allen's improvement, and what they are really saying is he needs to be a better passer. If he hit that passing TD increase, it would be an unprecedented improvement. If you are talking about passing and rushing TDs, I suppose I don't think it is out of the question. Well, if he passes/runs for 30-35 TD’s that’s an average of 2 per game. Adding another 16 for others (Gore, Singletary, ST and D) that’s an average of 3 per game. If that happens the Bills will be in the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeGOATski Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 Whatever gets the Bills to the playoffs. That's my only expectation. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlayoffsPlease Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 Assuming no injuries, I am expecting 4,000 yards passing and passer rating in the low 90's. I am also expecting 600+ yards rushing. I do not expect him to have any tackles. I do not expect him to have any catches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RochesterLifer Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 7 hours ago, HOUSE said: https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/rochester/bills/2019/09/05/examining-expectations-for-buffalo-bills-qb-josh-allen This statement from Wawrow, "As for completion percentage, I think that needs to improve, but I am not as concerned about it as others. To me it is more about decision making and choosing to take the shorter, easier throws as opposed to leading the league in tossing it deep." captures exactly what I am looking/hoping for from Allen. If his recognition and decision making matures, the rest will take care of itself. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Harper Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 7 hours ago, HOUSE said: https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/rochester/bills/2019/09/05/examining-expectations-for-buffalo-bills-qb-josh-allen It doesn't really work that way but I like this analysis nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 W's are the only stat that matters 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDH Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 2 hours ago, clearwater cadet said: i just hope he doesnt pull a Trubisky. I'd be happy with Trubisky like numbers from last year. People are looking at one game to start the season and using that as proof that Trubisky sucks. He was horrible last night, it happens. Josh will be horrible in some games this year too, it doens't mean he isn't and can't be a good QB. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nextmanup Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 The data in the article is not particularly encouraging. Roughly half the QBs showed very minimal improvement in year 2, and roughly half didn't improve at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloHokie13 Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 I suppose this is a good a place as any, and by asking I'm probably going through with it anyway, but would people be interested in a comparison of stats for all of the second seasons on these QBs? I've already run and posted the rookie season stats for all QBs with significant play time since 2011 previously. I guess it could be interesting to track... 31 rookies qualified. I suppose I could include mahomes even though he didn't qualify as a rookie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoHuddleKelly12 Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 3 hours ago, LeGOATski said: Whatever gets the Bills to the playoffs. That's my only expectation. ^^^^This. If this happens, then we know he directed the ball where it needed to go, when it needed to go, and for enough yardage/scores in enough situations that the Bills pulled out the W. This better include some W's over the Patsies as well, BTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeGOATski Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 11 minutes ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said: ^^^^This. If this happens, then we know he directed the ball where it needed to go, when it needed to go, and for enough yardage/scores in enough situations that the Bills pulled out the W. This better include some W's over the Patsies as well, BTW. At least on over the Pats****** The changing of the guard should start now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RoyBatty is alive Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 6 hours ago, Dopey said: I'll be happy with: 3200 yds passing 24 Passing TD's 12 INT's No more than 250 YD's rushing(a little over 15 YD's per game) 5 Rushing TD's 58% completion AND...PLAYOFFS!!! This is realistic and 58% completion does demonstrate progress. I also want a lot fewer rushing attempts but 250 yards really underestimates his ability, even if he stays disciplined n the pocket. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullBuchanan Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 6 hours ago, frogger said: my expectations.. 3100-3300 yards passing 500-600 rushing (you can't tell him not to, felt when Taylor decided not to run, it limited our offense) 20-23 TD passes (team will have more rushing yards with Gore) 6-8 rushing TDs 62% passing (shorter routes) I'll bet you $100 he doesn't get 62% passing. I don't think he's ever thrown that in his life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 29 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said: I'll bet you $100 he doesn't get 62% passing. I don't think he's ever thrown that in his life. For a season or a game? His first year at Wyoming he threw 66.7% completions, whaddo I win? Seriously, though, to go from his 52% (after injury return) to 62% is unlikely. It's going to be a process for Allen, and to go from 52% to 56% (college ave) or 58% would be a symptom of real progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullBuchanan Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: For a season or a game? His first year at Wyoming he threw 66.7% completions, whaddo I win? Seriously, though, to go from his 52% (after injury return) to 62% is unlikely. It's going to be a process for Allen, and to go from 52% to 56% (college ave) or 58% would be a symptom of real progress. Congrats you've won a lifetime supply of 'atta boys! I think 58% is a also a realistic sign of strong progress. Unless he turns into a drastically different kind of player somehow, I expect him to be in the bottom 10 of the league throughout his career, and that's ok as long as he learns to hit on the plays that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloHokie13 Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: For a season or a game? His first year at Wyoming he threw 66.7% completions, whaddo I win? Seriously, though, to go from his 52% (after injury return) to 62% is unlikely. It's going to be a process for Allen, and to go from 52% to 56% (college ave) or 58% would be a symptom of real progress. Part of me recognizes that my projection of just over 60% is an optimistic leap. Another part of me sees a QB who will benefit from improved protection and is throwing to mostly new pass catchers as factors in addition to his own personal growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 37 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said: I'll bet you $100 he doesn't get 62% passing. I don't think he's ever thrown that in his life. Bet you loved Trubisky's scintillating 60%+ passing night last night. Because, you know, completion percentage is EVERYTHING. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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