Will The Pegulas Decision On Phil Housley Foreshadow the Future Of Beane and McDermott?

[BillyWhiteShows]

Listening to Kim and Terry at the owners meetings was interesting.  Despite it being an NFL owners meeting, the majority of questions were Buffalo Sabres related.  Specifically wondering how Terry and Kim will respond to a team with promise that currently is in a free fall.  Many fans are calling for the head of Phil Housley and given how the team has played over the past few months, it tough to suggest otherwise.  

 

A topic that has been discussed in here has been the overall security of Beane and McDermott and the amount of pressure (or lack thereof) they are under to win.  

 

It made me wonder how they’ll respond if the Bills take another step back record wise.  Let’s say they go 5-11 or 4-12.  Does it mean that McDermott and/or Beane will be axed it that they’ll be under the gun in 2020?

 

I’ve always thought that the both Beane and McDermott will be given the full 5 years of their contract.   I also think that the Pegulas are image conscious and don’t want to be the team which constantly fires coaches.  I think when they fired Rex and brought it McDermott they gave him their word that they would have patience and give him time to build his vision.  

 

Based on how Terry and Kim have a the Housley situation, I believe this even more now. I noticed they used the word “patience” on more than 1 occasion and while Terry didn’t use the word “continuity” he basically alluded it by referencing New England.

 

So any fans that want say things like “Fire McDermott” or “Beane should be Fired.”  Will likely have to wait until 2021.  I think these cats are getting all 5 years regardless, under the guise of “patience” and “continuity.”  Yes even if they go 6-10 and 5-11, they still will get 2021.  Only way they leave before this is if there is some kind of falling out or a disasterous Hugh Jackson-like Run.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Bangarang]

Win games or get fired. That’s how it should be

[klos63]

I would think if the team finishes with 4-6 wins , it would be logical that they would be 'under the gun'.  A lot of factors would be in play and you have to see how the season plays out. What if Allen is injured most of the season, I would think that would be taken into account.  Basically, if you don't win, you are under pressure, nothing out of the ordinary there.

[Doc Brown]

They've already fired Bylsma/Murray and Ryan/Whaley due to poor performance.  If you don't win games you're out.  They better fire Housley.

[JimKellyTryouts]

No. I have supreme confidence in the GM, HC, and QB for the first time in forever for the Bills. McBeane will at least have the full duration of Allen's rookie deal to continue to build the team in their vision, and thus far it seems they're doing a damn good job. 

 

The Sabres coaching, player depth, and overall management has been a wreck. There's uncertainty whether or not Housley was even Botterill's choice - Terry's intro in his presser was that along the lines of a nostalgic fan. Phil just isn't getting the job done during the game and I'm skeptical he can lead and inspire this team off the ice, either; keeping him will probably only delay the inevitable and have him out during Christmas imo. I could say more, but I digress. 

[GG]

McDermott can't hide behind the no-talent excuse.   Nevertheless, He's shown tons more coaching ability than Housley, so the rope could be longer.  

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

I heard an audo clip today of Terry saying the best teams in both leagues have one thing in common. Consistency of management team. I really hope he doesn’t think continuity leads to success and not the other way around. 

 

Correlation does not equal causation. 

[Heavy Kevi]

I truly believe they are safe for a minimum of 2 more years.

 

I just think the Pegs believe they found their guys, and making the playoffs bought them some time off the hot seat.

 

McBeane will get a chance to fully realize their collective vision.

 

That's not my choice, just my gut feeling (though it also happens to be my choice).

[klos63]

Just now, JimKellyTryouts said:

No. I have supreme confidence in the GM, HC, and QB for the first time in forever for the Bills. McBeane will at least have the full duration of Allen's rookie deal to continue to build the team in their vision, and thus far it seems they're doing a damn good job. 

 

The Sabres coaching, player depth, and overall management has been a wreck. There's uncertainty whether or not Housley was even Botterill's choice - Terry's intro in his presser was that along the lines of a nostalgic fan. Phil just isn't getting the job done during the game and I'm skeptical he can lead and inspire this team off the ice, either; keeping him will probably only delay the inevitable and have him out during Christmas imo. I could say more, but I digress. 

I'm not sure they're doing a damn good job, but they're being allowed to do their jobs and i think they've earned year 3 and barring a total collapse year 4. Patience is important, but so is progress.  I expect a pretty decent season coming up.

[Bangarang]

2 minutes ago, Chemical said:

I heard an audo clip today of Terry saying the best teams in both leagues have one thing in common. Consistency of management team. I really hope he doesn’t think continuity leads to success and not the other way around. 

 

Correlation does not equal causation. 

 

If only Chan Gailey had more time. 

[Steve Billieve]

It's not whether you win or lose, it's how stupid you look doing it.

[Formerly Allan in MD]

This is apples and oranges.  The Bills went to the playoffs two seasons ago under the current regime and from all appearances know what they're doing and are progressing.  The Sabres, on the other hand, are pure regression.  One season is worse than the last.  The team right now isn't.  Housley is in way over his head, appears to have no plan, and is an embarrassment who should have been fired by now.  The jury is out on Botterill, but based on the O'Reilly give away, looks less than stellar.  The Bills ship is thus righted while the Sabres ship is titanically sinking.  Apples and oranges.

[stony]

It sounded like Terry was laying the foundation for Housley's firing.  

[ganesh]

36 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

If only Chan Gailey had more time. 

If only he could have fixed the Defense...And we still have Lynch and Jackson and yet we drafted Spiller!!!! 

[Beast]

No.

 

Nest question.

[BillyWhiteShows]

21 minutes ago, Formerly Allan in MD said:

This is apples and oranges.  The Bills went to the playoffs two seasons ago under the current regime and from all appearances know what they're doing and are progressing.  The Sabres, on the other hand, are pure regression.  One season is worse than the last.  The team right now isn't.  Housley is in way over his head, appears to have no plan, and is an embarrassment who should have been fired by now.  The jury is out on Botterill, but based on the O'Reilly give away, looks less than stellar.  The Bills ship is thus righted while the Sabres ship is titanically sinking.  Apples and oranges.

 

Not really considering that after winning 10 games in a row, they appeared to be making progress and had fans talking playoffs for the first time in years.  I wouldn’t say it’s a complete regression because they did get hot this year.

20 minutes ago, stony said:

It sounded like Terry was laying the foundation for Housley's firing.  

 

It did?  Because I felt the opposite?  It sounded like Terry was making every excuse for Housley.  I think he’s staying 

[Mr. WEO]

"Continuity" is important to Pegula, huh..?

 

Remember when he said this?:

 

We’re talking about continuity, and the players need that,” Pegula said. “Our coach needs to know that, through the good and the bad, there’s stability. The players need to know there’s stability. And by the way, that doesn’t help our players any to start reading that their coach is going to get fired.”

 

 

That was just weeks before he fired Rex.

 

And the Sabres have simply quit with 6 games left.  It's been a disaster since Pegula Day 1 for that sad franchise.

[Nihilarian]

Pro sports is a performance based business and if a player can't do his job he is replaced. Why shouldn't the HC, GM or assistant coach get the same?

 

After last years draft/ FA Beane isn't going anywhere! McD OTOH needs to have a winning season to at least 8-8, 9-7 or better.  

[WhoTom]

Big difference between Rex and McD: the players and owners have bought into McD's plan. Rex was clueless and it was obvious by the end of his second year that he'd lost the team.

 

Why do the players (and the owners) believe in McD and not Rex? Rex took a top-five defense and decimated it. McD took roughly the same players and rode that defense to the playoffs, in spite of having an anemic offense with a gun-shy QB. Then he (and Beane) dumped the dead weight, cleared cap space, drafted what looks to be a competent QB, bolstered the o-line (on paper, at least), improved the WR corps, and still have ten draft picks to spend. Barring a total meltdown, they get at least two more years, and probably three.

 

[cgang]

Hardly ever post but I read TBD every day.  I just feel they have staying power here.  They just seem authentic and are disciplined to know what they are doing.  Kind of like Wade Phillips or Schwartz.  And something we’ve missed around here (in general) for a while esp on coaching side.

 

maybe wishful thinking on my part though.  

 

[BillyWhiteShows]

12 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

"Continuity" is important to Pegula, huh..?

 

Remember when he said this?:

 

We’re talking about continuity, and the players need that,” Pegula said. “Our coach needs to know that, through the good and the bad, there’s stability. The players need to know there’s stability. And by the way, that doesn’t help our players any to start reading that their coach is going to get fired.”

 

 

That was just weeks before he fired Rex.

 

And the Sabres have simply quit with 6 games left.  It's been a disaster since Pegula Day 1 for that sad franchise.

 

This is interesting.  We’ll see what Terry does but my instinct based on his comments are that Phil is staying.  

[Nihilarian]

28 minutes ago, ganesh said:

If only he could have fixed the Defense...And we still have Lynch and Jackson and yet we drafted Spiller!!!! 

So true and so stupid! The team was desperate for a LT and the team drafts a "water-bug" RB with that #9 overall. 

 

It wasn't just the defense as that first season (2010) the offense was slightly worse 4-12. The next season the offense was 14th with Fitz throwing 24 TDs, 23 INTs and Fred Jackson the leading rusher with 934 yards, Spiller with 561 yards. 2012 saw Gailey go 6-10 again with a 20th ranked offense, 26th ranked defense.

 

Meanwhile, in Seattle Lynch had 1204 yards rushing with 12 TDs. In 2012 Lynch had 1590 rushing yards, 11 TDs. 

 

There is a reason Chan Gailey has been out of the NFL for two years, going on three. 

[HOUSE]

The only way Sean McDermott can lose his job would be if the team stops playing for him. Kind of like Housley.

 

I guess a team rebellion could do it too.

[BillyWhiteShows]

13 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

Pro sports is a performance based business and if a player can't do his job he is replaced. Why shouldn't the HC, GM or assistant coach get the same?

 

After last years draft/ FA Beane isn't going anywhere! McD OTOH needs to have a winning season to at least 8-8, 9-7 or better.  

 

Not it is not that simple.  

 

You have to consider the context here.  There are few coaches in the NFL that allegedly have as much power as Sean mcDermott does in Buffalo.  Keep in mind that since his hire he made huge changes on the field but also in the organization.  This included the removal of long time employees and possibly even the firing/hiring of a new GM.  

 

He has a lot of power at OBD, and I don’t think his situation is unique.  Bills could have another 6-10 year....he’s coming back in 2020 guaranteed.  Maybe even 2021

[stony]

32 minutes ago, BillyWhiteShows said:

 

Not really considering that after winning 10 games in a row, they appeared to be making progress and had fans talking playoffs for the first time in years.  I wouldn’t say it’s a complete regression because they did get hot this year.

 

It did?  Because I felt the opposite?  It sounded like Terry was making every excuse for Housley.  I think he’s staying 

Yup.  There was a lot of "Bots said he's safe, but we'll evaluate everything."  JMO.  

[ProcessAccepted]

If we regress to 4 wins then they should be under the gun. If we continue to improve in results and consistency they won't. I have to imagine that the Pegula's are happy with how tings are going with the Bills. There's a plan, and things are going to plan, maybe with better than expected results. 

[Albany,n.y.]

The question should be if the Bills win the division should Beane & McDermott get 10 year extensions, not some question that asks what if they go 4-12 or 5-11.  Unless the team bus crashes into a ravine there's no way the same team that went 6-10 and has had massive offseason upgrades, a QB with a year of experience & gets an easier schedule will win fewer games than last season. 

 

[vincec]

I’m trying to think of a coach in the last 30 years who lost more games than the previous season for two seasons in a row and still turned the franchise into a winner. I can’t. Maybe someone can provide an example, but if the Bills are worse than 6-10 next season then I’d say the chances that mcDermott turns it around are minuscule.

Edited March 28, 2019 by vincec

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Barring a really bad collapse, see them making it at least to 2020,  if then were real bad the next two years, can see McD getting fired, but GM's often get to go through two coaches, so could see Beane still hanging on and hiring another coach.  Worst case Allan's a failure so the team is also terrible, but if you fire him for that, you better plan to fire many others too as the success rate for QB's is less than 50/50 to begin with.

[MJS]

I don't think the Sabres have anything to do with the Bills. And I think that no matter the record this year, McDermott and company will get at least one more year, unless it is just truly an epically bad season (only 1 or 2 wins and Josh Allen is the worst QB in the league).

 

I think 2020 is judgement year. If we don't make the playoffs again by the end of that season I think they get the axe.

 

I know fans get impatient but I personally think the current Bills regime has the team on the right track and I want to be absolutely sure before firing them and tearing everything down again.

[BillyWhiteShows]

6 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

Barring a really bad collapse, see them making it at least to 2020,  if then were real bad the next two years, can see McD getting fired, but GM's often get to go through two coaches, so could see Beane still hanging on and hiring another coach.  Worst case Allan's a failure so the team is also terrible, but if you fire him for that, you better plan to fire many others too as the success rate for QB's is less than 50/50 to begin with.

 

The difference is....most coaches don’t get any input who the GM is.  I am telling you McDermott’s situation in the NFL is pretty unique.

[Cripple Creek]

3 hours ago, BillyWhiteShows said:

Listening to Kim and Terry at the owners meetings was interesting.  Despite it being an NFL owners meeting, the majority of questions were Buffalo Sabres related.  Specifically wondering how Terry and Kim will respond to a team with promise that currently is in a free fall.  Many fans are calling for the head of Phil Housley and given how the team has played over the past few months, it tough to suggest otherwise.  

 

A topic that has been discussed in here has been the overall security of Beane and McDermott and the amount of pressure (or lack thereof) they are under to win.  

 

It made me wonder how they’ll respond if the Bills take another step back record wise.  Let’s say they go 5-11 or 4-12.  Does it mean that McDermott and/or Beane will be axed it that they’ll be under the gun in 2020?

 

 

With the additions made prior to the draft, Allen second year, Edmunds second year, then the draft a slide back means that they should be on the hot seat.

[Formerly Allan in MD]

2 hours ago, BillyWhiteShows said:

 

Not really considering that after winning 10 games in a row, they appeared to be making progress and had fans talking playoffs for the first time in years.  I wouldn’t say it’s a complete regression because they did get hot this year.

 

It did?  Because I felt the opposite?  It sounded like Terry was making every excuse for Housley.  I think he’s staying 

If Housley stays, and I don't believe he will, Terry shouldn't wonder why season ticket orders and attendance decrease.  The only cover for Phil in that instance will be if Botterill works some excitement-generating miracles, which I don't believe he will as well.

[Nihilarian]

2 hours ago, BillyWhiteShows said:

 

Not it is not that simple.  

 

You have to consider the context here.  There are few coaches in the NFL that allegedly have as much power as Sean mcDermott does in Buffalo.  Keep in mind that since his hire he made huge changes on the field but also in the organization.  This included the removal of long time employees and possibly even the firing/hiring of a new GM.  

 

He has a lot of power at OBD, and I don’t think his situation is unique.  Bills could have another 6-10 year....he’s coming back in 2020 guaranteed.  Maybe even 2021

While I agree that McD has/had a lot of power as he brought in his own GM and the Bills did make the playoffs in his first season as HC.  I look at Rex Ryan and see his first year the Bills went 8-8 and then went backward to 7-8 before he was fired. 

 

Now granted Ryan screwed himself by attempting to run his archaic lame 3-4 scheme that was dependent on elite linebackers that he didn't have...Meanwhile, the Bills defense was better suited for a 4-3 with that superb defensive line. Then instead of rushing the passer with that D line he would rather they hold their blocks while at times dropping into pass coverage  A blind man could see Rex Ryan was a big mouth fool. 

 

 

Still, the 2018 Bills season was marred with blowouts (5)and a run game that stalled more often than not. (His defense crapped the bed in a bunch of games last year). While taking big steps backward to a 6-10 season. Keeping run game coordinator/O line coach Juan Castillo for 2018 wasn't nearly as wrong as giving Nathan Peterman the starting job with all the starting season reps ...much less keeping him as a backup. While the defense was #2 yards allowed those blowouts held the Bills to 18th in points allowed. 

 

I honestly don't think McD will survive another 6-10 season and quite a lot of it will depend on how the season transpires. McD has had two seasons to show he knows how to build a solid team and took a Chan Gailey step backward last year.  I'd have a different feeling about the situation had McD been able to beat the NE Patriots at least once and right now he is 0-4.  In my view what good is he if he can't beat the Patriots at least once in six attempts.

 

It's my take that the Pegula's want to win in the NFL more than most realize. 

 

 

Edited March 28, 2019 by Nihilarian

[PromoTheRobot]

Please explain how McBeane and PhilBott are the same trajectory?

[Thurman#1]

No.

[Thurman#1]

7 hours ago, vincec said:

I’m trying to think of a coach in the last 30 years who lost more games than the previous season for two seasons in a row and still turned the franchise into a winner. I can’t. Maybe someone can provide an example, but if the Bills are worse than 6-10 next season then I’d say the chances that mcDermott turns it around are minuscule.

 

 

Maybe, maybe not, but there's no particular reason to think they actually will be worse than 6-10 next year.

 

Marty Schottenheimer in San Diego went 8-8 and then 4-12 his first two years and then won 12 and 14 games in two of the next three seasons. Mike Shanahan's first three years in Washington were 6-10, 5-11 and 10-6, which is pretty damn good for that toxic environment. Dick Vermeil's first two years in St. Louis he went 5-11 and then 4-10, and then his third year was 13-3. Holmgren in Seattle went 9-7 and then 6-10. Mike freakin' Holmgren. Went 9-7 and then 6-10. Why do those numbers seem so familiar to me?

 

Sean Payton went 10-6 and then 7-9 in his first two years with the Saints. The current Raiders coach, when in Tampa, went 12-4 and then plummeted to 7-9. And then 5-11 in his third year. He did pretty well in Tampa as I recall, didn't he? Sam Wyche went 8-8 and then 7-9 in Cincy before having two seasons where he won ten and then 12 games. Wayne Fontes was brought in mid-year and went 2-3, and then kept on. HIs first two full years he went 7-9 and then 6-10 and then had a 12 and two 10-win seasons, damn good in Detroit. Jim Fassel in NY went 10-6 and then 8-8 and then 7-9 and then in the next four years had a 12 and a 10 win season. Depending on how you count it, Jason Garrett went 5-3 his first year and then 8-8 three straight times. He didn't do as well as he'd done his first year till his fifth.

 

I'm just looking down the list of head coaches and remembering guys who had a turnaround. It isn't all that unusual. And I'm far from finished with the list, as my point is made.

Edited March 28, 2019 by Thurman#1

[machine gun kelly]

11 hours ago, Bangarang said:

Win games or get fired. That’s how it should be

 

And do it all over again every three years.  I see them getting the five years.  I also am seeing a team being built from the ground up and spending wisely.  Now we have 10 draft picks and still money to sustainably spend each year without going upside down (see Whaley).

 

You can’t quick fix a program.  If over the five years, they don’t consistently improve, yes I agree Bagarang.

[oldmanfan]

I think terry's comments say it all.  He realizes you can't keep reinventing the wheel every couple years.  McD and Beane have a plan, they're sticking to it, and hopefully it gives sustained results.  As for the Sabres, Botterill is I think like Beane, he has a plan and will go forth and execute.  I hope part of that plan is to get some guys on the team that actually aren't afraid of hitting a guy.  The limited number of games I get to see, it's ridiculous how many opposing players sit right in front of the goal and aren't touched. 

[Cripple Creek]

17 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

 

And do it all over again every three years.  I see them getting the five years.  I also am seeing a team being built from the ground up and spending wisely.  Now we have 10 draft picks and still money to sustainably spend each year without going upside down (see Whaley).

 

You can’t quick fix a program.  If over the five years, they don’t consistently improve, yes I agree Bagarang.

So, you're ok with a slide back to five or less wins in the upcoming season.  After turning over more than 30% (conservatively) of their roster in this off season what excuses will you offer? Mind you, I don't think it (a slide) will happen, but if it does they both will and should be on the hot seat.