How recent history for young quarterbacks looks favorable for Josh Allen entering year No. 2

[Heavy Kevi]

https://www.buffalobills.com/news/how-recent-history-for-young-quarterbacks-looks-favorably-for-josh-allen-enterin

 

This is a Chris Brown article from BuffaloBills.com. Very interesting read:

 

It was evident to anyone who watched the second half of Josh Allen’s rookie season. The quarterback has the ability to take over a game. Allen made a good first impression on a lot of people in 2018, including those who professionally evaluate performances on a weekly basis. So what should be expected from Josh Allen in his second NFL season?

 

“I think he’s going to be a great player,” said Sirius XM NFL Radio host Pat Kirwan. “His athleticism, we all knew he had it, but watching him this is rare athletic skill. His ability to give himself a chance to win games with the way he works around the pocket. He can do so many things that a lot of quarterbacks can’t do just to get himself open to extend plays and throw the ball.“You get him the right set of receivers, look out. I think he’s going to take a quantum leap in year two.”

 

Recent history has shown that most quarterbacks who see significant action in their rookie season advance their team’s fortunes in their second season under center. Nine out of 11 current NFL quarterbacks, who started at least seven games as a rookie, helped raised their team’s won-loss record by an average of three wins (see chart).

 

Six of those quarterbacks helped their team post a winning record after being under .500 the season prior. Among those signal callers are Mitchell Trubisky, who led the Chicago Bears to the NFC North title and a home Wild Card playoff game just this past season, and Jared Goff, who helped the L.A. Rams win the NFC West title in 2017.

 

And three of those 11 quarterbacks helped their teams to Super Bowl titles in Ben Roethlisberger (2005), Russell Wilson (2013) and Carson Wentz, who was putting together an MVP type season in 2017, before Nick Foles finished it off in Super Bowl XLII.

 

Table inside Article

ACTIVE NFL QBs (Team/Rookie season)	TEAM WINS IN ROOKIE YEAR	TEAM WINS IN SECOND YEAR	WIN DIFFERENTIAL	SECOND YEAR RESULTS
Blake Bortles (Jac/2014)	3	5	Plus-2	5-11
Jared Goff (LAR/2016)	4	11	Plus-7	11-5 - won NFC West
Eli Manning (NYG/2004)	6	11	Plus-5	11-5 - won NFC East
Marcus Mariota (Ten/2015)	3	9	Plus-6	9-7
Cam Newton (Car/2011)	6	7	Plus-1	7-9
Ben Roelisberger (Pit/2004)	15	11	Minus-4	11-5 - won Super Bowl
Matt Ryan (Atl/2008)	11	9	Minus-2	9-7
Mitchell Trubisky (Chi/2017)	5	12	Plus-7	12-4 - won NFC North
Carson Wentz (Phi/2016)	7	13	Plus-6	13-3 - won Super Bowl
Russell Wilson (Sea/2012)	11	13	Plus-2	13-3 - won Super Bowl
Jameis Winston (TB/2015)	6	9	Plus-3	9-7

 

Buffalo is coming off a 6-10 season in their quarterback’s rookie year, so what is Josh Allen capable of to flip the Bills script in 2019?

“He plays with a lot of heart and toughness,” said NBC analyst Rodney Harrison. “They’re going to have to do a better job of surrounding him with better talent.”

 

Bills general manager Brandon Beane is all too aware that he needs to help his budding young quarterback by upgrading the pool of talent on the offensive side of the ball.“I’ve got to do a solid job this offseason to improve our offense,” said Beane. “We know where we need to get stronger, and we’ll look to address all those areas.”

 

Provided those steps are taken, knowing the Buffalo offense for the first time in five seasons will have the same coordinator, the odds seem good for the Bills to take a sizable step forward in Josh Allen’s second NFL campaign.

 

“The young man is really fun to work with,” said offensive coordinator Brian Daboll. “He takes his craft really seriously for a young player. I think that we’ve just got to keep grinding it out and really improving in all the stuff that we can.”“He’s not arrived by any means, but I know who he is and he is not complacent,” said Beane of Allen. “This guy is competitive. He wants to get better. He wants to be the best at his craft. He’s got a really good plan. We talked to a lot of the young guys and Josh has a really good plan for the offseason to come back here bigger, stronger, faster and mentally even stronger.”

That’s why Beane is determined to equip Allen with the tools he needs to lift the Buffalo offense that languished near the bottom of the league in total yards, passing and scoring to a level that can help them pull their weight. Coupled with a top five defense, year two for Allen could mirror some of his NFL predecessors when it comes to team improvement.

 

“He has huge upside,” said former NFL quarterback Jim Miller. “His arm strength is ridiculous. He puts some serious sauce on that ball. If he just hones in and gets his footwork all worked out, man he’s going to be a good one. He’s tough and extremely athletic. He can do things that no quarterback in this league can do."

Edited February 7, 2019 by Shotgunner

[eball]

We like Pat Kirwan again!

[Virgil]

Ben won 15 games his rookie year?  Is that including post season?  I’m too lazy to google 

[eball]

Just now, Virgil said:

Ben won 15 games his rookie year?  Is that including post season?  I’m too lazy to google 

 

Yes, Steelers went 15-1 then lost to Pats*** in playoffs.

[Virgil]

Just now, eball said:

 

Yes, Steelers went 15-1 then lost to Pats*** in playoffs.

 

Thats crazy. I don’t remember them being one game away from undefeated

[eball]

4 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 

Thats crazy. I don’t remember them being one game away from undefeated

 

Yup.  Tommy Maddox started the first two games and went 1-1; they lost to Baltimore in W2.  Big Ben went 13-0 in the regular season, beat the Jets in OT, then lost in the AFC Championship.

 

This was also the year of that infamous final game in which the Steelers, with nothing to play for, beat the Bills to keep Buffalo out of the playoffs.

 

Edited February 7, 2019 by eball

[dickleyjones]

as much as i like Allen, statistics about other quarterbacks prove nothing about Allen. just like last year when statistics apparently said he will not succeed. both prove nothing about Allen!

[Augie]

8 minutes ago, eball said:

We like Pat Kirwan again!

 

For now, yes, we love him!  ?

[eball]

3 minutes ago, dickleyjones said:

as much as i like Allen, statistics about other quarterbacks prove nothing about Allen. just like last year when statistics apparently said he will not succeed. both prove nothing about Allen!

 

These aren't statistics so much as trends...and they make logical sense.  1st round rookie QBs are typically drafted by bad teams.  They get experience during their rookie years, and then in year two the team takes a step forward.

[Foxx]

he is going to be an MVP candidate.

upps, wrong thread, sorry.....

[dickleyjones]

10 minutes ago, eball said:

 

These aren't statistics so much as trends...and they make logical sense.  1st round rookie QBs are typically drafted by bad teams.  They get experience during their rookie years, and then in year two the team takes a step forward.

statistics, trends, same thing. i'm not saying it won't happen, i hope Allen lights it up and i think he will. it's just that articles like this that show trends do a very poor job of showing us anything about an individual. 

 

the misuse of statistics (trends) by the self professed football experts is rampant.

[Patrick Duffy]

12 minutes ago, Foxx said:

he is going to be an MVP candidate.

upps, wrong thread, sorry.....

Finalist?

[Mr. WEO]

Wentz/Eagles "won SB" his second year!!! 

 

lol

[quinnearlysghost88]

I appreciate these Josh Allen growth and comparison threads, but why does it feel like we're trying to convince ourselves that he's good enough? 

[H2o]

11-5 next year. Mark it down. 

[NoHuddleKelly12]

21 minutes ago, quinnearlysghost88 said:

I appreciate these Josh Allen growth and comparison threads, but why does it feel like we're trying to convince ourselves that he's good enough? 

I view it as more of it being the offseason, which warrants this kind of discussion in the absence of actual ongoing games to discuss. Besides, I'll happily take threads like this any day over the fawning Pats board lite that so many other threads here have become the week after the SB.  

20 minutes ago, H2o said:

11-5 next year. Mark it down. 

If we're good enough to go 11-5, then we should be good enough to go 13-3. Moonshot! 

[Thurman#1]

How come DaShone Kizer's not on there? He started 15 games.

 

The list is nicely self-selected. "Active" QBs, so it can ignore all the ones who aren't playing anymore.

 

I'm reasonably hopeful, I really am, but this list leaves out more than it shows.

 

Edited February 7, 2019 by Thurman#1

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

1 hour ago, eball said:

 

Yes, Steelers went 15-1 then lost to Pats*** in playoffs.

 

...yup....and Allen's "surroundings" were on par.....how does one isolate the QB and "forget" what was around him?...I missed the memo.......

[Bing Bong]

59 minutes ago, quinnearlysghost88 said:

I appreciate these Josh Allen growth and comparison threads, but why does it feel like we're trying to convince ourselves that he's good enough? 

Also feels like we're putting monumental expectations on him that are getting borderline unreasonable.. like next year is MVP or bust or something. I just want improvement. I know his physical abilities from rookie year. Sophomore year I need to see ability to improve and learn over an offseason, work ethic, etc.. Third year I want to be convinced he's the franchise. 5th year MVP? Sure. Matt Ryan and Cam evolved that way.

 

 

[Thurman#1]

Wait, how come Dalton's not on there?

[atlbillsfan1975]

1 hour ago, quinnearlysghost88 said:

I appreciate these Josh Allen growth and comparison threads, but why does it feel like we're trying to convince ourselves that he's good enough? 

A lot of these are coming from National media, ie the people who mostly said Allen was a boom or bust pick. Now some are trying to get on the train early if he is going to be a boom. None of it means a thing. Allen is going to be great. He had the talent, the heart, desire, and I think the brains to be awesome. Not talking anyone into it, least myself.

[snamsnoops]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

How come DaShone Kizer's not on there? He started 15 games.

 

The list is nicely self-selected. "Active" QBs, so it can ignore all the ones who aren't playing anymore.

 

I'm reasonably hopeful, I really am, but this list leaves out more than it shows.

 

I think he didnt have him listed seeing he wasnt a starter his 2nd season. Only 3 games played with 42 attempts...

Edited February 8, 2019 by snamsnoops

[hemma]

‘to come back here bigger, stronger, faster ...’

 

Chris Brown sure knows how to push our hot buttons.

 

[NoSaint]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

How come DaShone Kizer's not on there? He started 15 games.

 

The list is nicely self-selected. "Active" QBs, so it can ignore all the ones who aren't playing anymore.

 

I'm reasonably hopeful, I really am, but this list leaves out more than it shows.

 

 

It felt like Chris stumbled into a stat to back a story he wanted to tell. As mentioned, obviously a qb 10 years in the league became a winner. Then you sort out 7 or more games. Then you frame it as the qb improved and not the natural “after a bad team spent its biggest resource on qb they then pushed the chips in on the rest of the team shortly after. We could easily be a 9 win team and josh flat line next year. 

 

He he has every potential to take big strides but the stat used was silly for the point trying to be made.

[Jerome007]

I have really high expectations of Josh and the Bills next year, especially if Beane can produce. Not as easy as it sounds to draft and sign FA impact players on OL and WRs - not many are available and 50% of the teams are competing for them. They are not on a shelf just waiting to be taken as so many fans seem to imply. But he'll try, and the defense can be as good if not better with Milano, Edmund, White all having more experience, safeties still top notch, etc. Add more experience also by McD and Daboll, and the future is bright. 

 

Sure the pressure is on. We expect great things as soon as 2019. It might not be realistic but it is what it is. Injuries and bad luck can always derail a season and a good plan but come on, the odds are in the Bills favor for once. And to me Allen is the real deal already. I can't remember being as pumped this century! And the draft and free agents signing have not even started! A LOT rides on Beane, no doubt.

 

 

 

 

[Jerome007]

I think it's Boomer Esiason that called Josh "must see TV" and he is right. Dude was an highlight machine and is just plain exciting. He's got desire, charisma, and quite the arm and legs. With wins the media WILL get back on the Bills wagon. Sure a small city is often ignored but a 17 year drought and a losing season by October don't exactly help. Even if you forgot trends, we could see his improvements, and this time he will clearly be #1 and rep with the starters from day one of training camp. Chemistry between QB and receivers is NOT overrated.

[FLFan]

3 hours ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

 Besides, I'll happily take threads like this any day over the fawning Pats board lite that so many other threads here have become the week after the SB.  

 

What, you don't "admire the Kraft/Brady relationship"?  That was my favorite of the week.  

[njbuff]

Ok, now go get him AJ Green. ?

[NoHuddleKelly12]

52 minutes ago, FLFan said:

What, you don't "admire the Kraft/Brady relationship"?  That was my favorite of the week.  

Lol, definitely a strong contender. Personally I’m thinking the thread discussing this is the greatest Pats squad since the 89 49ers has pulled into the lead, but it’s close I’ll give you...

 

[update: the thread about Brady’s awesome accent is coming up fast...]

Edited February 8, 2019 by NoHuddleKelly12

[TigerJ]

5 hours ago, eball said:

 

These aren't statistics so much as trends...and they make logical sense.  1st round rookie QBs are typically drafted by bad teams.  They get experience during their rookie years, and then in year two the team takes a step forward.

This is correct.  Certainly, Josh Allen has to earn his own stripes.  The article is just saying that if he's starting as a rookie, he probably has some talent.  As you observe QBs starting as a rookie are probably on teams that have much room for improvement (Rothlisberger's Steelers being an exception).  In many cases, the team is in a position to make a lot of personnel improvements around a young QB.  Together with the QBs developing skill set and confidence, significant improvement in year two should be the norm, not the exception.

[eball]

12 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Wait, how come Dalton's not on there?

 

Because he wasn't a 1st round draft pick?

 

Edit -- I see Russell Wilson was on that list.  But every other QB on there was a 1st rounder, which I think is the point.

 

Edited February 8, 2019 by eball

[Thurman#1]

 

11 hours ago, snamsnoops said:

I think he didnt have him listed seeing he wasnt a starter his 2nd season. Only 3 games played with 42 attempts...

 

 

 

" Nine out of 11 current NFL quarterbacks, who started at least seven games as a rookie, helped raised their team’s won-loss record by an average of three wins (see chart). "

 

Chris Brown's words, not mine. "current NFL quarterbacks who started at least seven games as a rookie." Doesn't say anything about whether or not he started his second year. But let's say he accidentally left that part out.

 

Then where's Andy Dalton, who started 16 games in each of his first two years? The Bungles only improved by one and Dalton somehow got lost here.

 

Where's Dak Prescott, who started his first 32 games and whose team lost four more games his second year?

 

Where's Joe Flacco who started his first 32 games and watched the Ravens fall from 11- to 9-7?

 

Not going to bother looking further. This chart is severely broken.

 

 

Edited February 8, 2019 by Thurman#1

[eball]

3 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

 

" Nine out of 11 current NFL quarterbacks, who started at least seven games as a rookie, helped raised their team’s won-loss record by an average of three wins (see chart). "

 

Chris Brown's words, not mine. "current NFL quarterbacks who started at least seven games as a rookie." Doesn't say anything about whether or not he started his second year. But let's say he accidentally left that part out.

 

Then where's Andy Dalton, who started 16 games in each of his first two years? The Bungles only improved by one and Dalton somehow got lost here.

 

Where's Dak Prescott, who started his first 32 games and whose team lost four more games his second year?

 

Not going to bother looking further. This chart is severely broken.

 

 

 

Again -- look at the list.  Only Russell Wilson isn't a 1st rounder.  The point is (or should be) about highly drafted QBs, not just "rookie QBs who play a lot."

[JESSEFEFFER]

How many EJ Manuel type careers are left off the list because they are not currently a starter or even in the league?  The real correlation here may be that a QB drafted high enough to start their rookie season had better show something trending upwards in their second season or they will be cycled out of the league.  No longer the "benefit of the doubt" beneficiaries, their lack of second year success probably cost the people that drafted and coached them their jobs.  

 

I don't have the time to research this but other names like Ponder, Young, Smith, Locker, Gabbert are conveniently excluded from this list.  There are probably lots more.  I don't know why Tanneyhill is excluded.

 

I see Thurman#1 and No Saint had already made similar points.  It is silly to make your "test group" by excluding unsuccessful, highly drafted QBs and then try to make a conclusion about the trends for success looking favorable for our QB entering his second year.

Edited February 8, 2019 by JESSEFEFFER

[oldmanfan]

Whatever.  All I know is I'm excited to watch him play next year.

[C.Biscuit97]

Stats are for losers (unless it’s a stat that I like). ?

[machine gun kelly]

I believe he will improve with more experience and off season coaching to work on his strengths and deficiencies.  So much of this team depends on what decisions are made by Beane in McD with their cap space and draft.

 

He won’t have more wins without a serious infusion in talent on the offense,

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

16 hours ago, eball said:

 

Yup.  Tommy Maddox started the first two games and went 1-1; they lost to Baltimore in W2.  Big Ben went 13-0 in the regular season, beat the Jets in OT, then lost in the AFC Championship.

 

This was also the year of that infamous final game in which the Steelers, with nothing to play for, beat the Bills to keep Buffalo out of the playoffs.

 

 

I remember those first 2 years they had a ridiculous defense and they just grinded with Bettis (and then Parker).  He wasn't throwing a lot but it worked out - they went far and did well and it was good for his development.

[formerlyofCtown]

16 hours ago, eball said:

We like Pat Kirwan again!

For now.

[LABILLBACKER]

I'll predict a +2 considering it will take Beane 2 full drafts to find all the offensive parts needed for Josh's success. 8-8 this year and 11-5 next year.