2019 NFL Draft: Bills officially picking 9th

[bmur66]

Need to go BAW. Best available Williams

[vincec]

10 hours ago, mannc said:

Let me explain something to you:  No one knows who the “best player available” is at any particular spot in the draft, especially when you are comparing, for example, a DT with a WR.  Some people might think they know, but they don’t.  And at any rate, I would argue that a really good WR is far more valuable than a great DT, especially on this team.

 

The Bills need offensive playmakers and a couple offensive linemen.  Those are the guys they need to be looking at in the first three rounds.  

You’re nuts Matt Millen.

Edited December 31, 2018 by vincec

[dave mcbride]

14 hours ago, Virgil said:

 

As of right now, and I will absolutely change my mind a lot....

 

1 - Oliver (His antics make me wonder if he’s a process guy, but he’ll make the biggest impact at a position of need)

 

2 - Trade back - No legit WR worth taking that screams #1.  

 

3 -  Williams - Lock up the bookends for the next 10 years and call it a day (depending on how FA goes)

Williams is a central valley, CA guy just like Allen. There may be some bonding potential.

[OldTimer1960]

NFL Network is showing that the Bills have pick 10 with Denver at 9.

[dave mcbride]

11 hours ago, Not at the table Karlos said:

So if the next best wr is graded as a mid to late round pick by your scouts and the dt is graded out as a top 5 pick you would take the wr. That is idiotic and how you end up like the raiders

 

If nobody knows who the best players available are why do the first few rounds have a better success rate than last few?

That's way too extrem of an example. In real life and not including qbs, it's more like the 5th rated player vs the 14th rated player. That's why trade downs happen. And trade downs are what the bills should be focusing on anyway. They need a many picks as possible.

[Mark92]

6 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

NFL Network is showing that the Bills have pick 10 with Denver at 9.

They're wrong.   The strength of schedule became a tie after last night's game.  Buffalo gets the tie breaker with opponets win loss record.  

[Not at the table Karlos]

9 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

That's way too extrem of an example. In real life and not including qbs, it's more like the 5th rated player vs the 14th rated player. That's why trade downs happen. And trade downs are what the bills should be focusing on anyway. They need a many picks as possible.

So what you're saying is the 5th rated guy would be the best available player and you wouldn't take the 14th rated guy at 5. You would trade down. Thank you for arguing the same point I am. 

[MrEpsYtown]

1 hour ago, PIZ said:

 

Anyone know anything about this guy, Zach Allen?  Maybe we start adding more "Allens" to the team, since we are losing a "Williams"?

 

 

 

 

 

Looks like a high motor,, high effort, lunchpail type guy. ?

[dave mcbride]

Just now, Not at the table Karlos said:

So what you're saying is the 5th rated guy would be the best available player and you wouldn't take the 14th rated guy at 5. You would trade down. Thank you for arguing the same point I am. 

I don’t think trade downs should always happen; sometimes it’s best to go for the lower-rated but still very good player if you feel like you’re that one position away from having an elite team (not the norm, to be sure). It’s just that the Bills have so many needs on offense, and the more picks you have, the better the chances that more will pan out. https://www.nber.org/papers/w11270

[TheBeaneBandit]

1 minute ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

Looks like a high motor,, high effort, lunchpail type guy. ?

Like Z Allen a lot but doubt he lines up with value at where we pick. I see him as a bottom 1/3 of the first round guy

[MrEpsYtown]

Josh Allen round one, Zach Allen round 2? Allen becomes he new Williams?

[TheBeaneBandit]

1 minute ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Josh Allen round one, Zach Allen round 2? Allen becomes he new Williams?

Lol that would be weird and kinda awesome at the same time! 

[Chuck Wagon]

With Haskins surely gone by the time we pick, it already seems like a real key is if someone like the Jags or the Dolphins / Broncos (in a trade up) talk themselves into Lock or Jones in the top 8.

 

#9 feels too rich to take WR given the talent distribution in this class.  Outside of maybe Jonah Williams (or Little / Taylor) coming in as a Day 1 starter at LT/RT, it feels like we just need to use the pick on the BPA defensive lineman and rebuild the O with the rest of the draft.

[Tommy Callahan]

IF past history is in play.  They will go for whoever has the highest ceiling..  IE, boom or bust.

 

 

[Chicken Boo]

15 hours ago, whatdrought said:

2018: SF- Mike McGlinchey, T, Notre Dame

2017: CIN- John Ross, WR, Washington

2016: CHI- Leonard Floyd, LB, Georgia

2015: NYG- Ereck Flowers, T, Miami

2014: MIN- Anthony Barr, LB, UCLA

2013: NYJ- Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama

2012: CAR- Luke Kueckly, LB, BC

2011: DAL- Tyron Smith, T, USC

2010: BUF- CJ Spiller, RB, Clemson

2009: GB- BJ Raji, DT, BC

 

 

 

 

2019:  BUF - D.K. Metcalf, WR, Ole Miss

[Chicken Boo]

 

??

[EasternOHBillsFan]

16 hours ago, wppete said:

Jonah Williams or Ed Oliver. 

 

Ed Oliver? HELL NO... he wants to argue on the sideline over a jacket. A jacket.

 

We need OL, WR and TE much more. Eyes on the Prize... upgrading our OFFENSE.

[stinky finger]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

I don’t think trade downs should always happen; sometimes it’s best to go for the lower-rated but still very good player if you feel like you’re that one position away from having an elite team (not the norm, to be sure). It’s just that the Bills have so many needs on offense, and the more picks you have, the better the chances that more will pan out. https://www.nber.org/papers/w11270

 

With the cap space and plenty of picks already, I'd entertain trading up for impact.

 

Not saying that's the path we should take at this point but one that should be considered.

[Yav]

N’Keal Harry WR - ASU 

6’4” 210 pounds 

 

He would be a perfect pic. 

[peterpan]

We need a wr with size.  A big catch radius guy would mesh well with Allens style.   Think about it.  Allen has accuracy issues.  The best part of his game is buying time and heaving it down field.  We need a guy who can jump up and catch contested balls, WHILE COVERED.  

 

A guy like Mike Evans.  I wonder if he is available to trade?

[Yav]

4 minutes ago, peterpan said:

We need a wr with size.  A big catch radius guy would mesh well with Allens style.   Think about it.  Allen has accuracy issues.  The best part of his game is buying time and heaving it down field.  We need a guy who can jump up and catch contested balls, WHILE COVERED.  

 

A guy like Mike Evans.  I wonder if he is available to trade?

N’Keal Harry. He’s 6’4” 210 pounds ... the kid would be the perfect fit with the current WRs

 

have a read

https://lastwordonprofootball.com/2018/07/27/nkeal-harry-ideal-nfl-receiver/

Edited December 31, 2018 by Yav

[Nester]

Johnna Williams or Gregg little please.

big OL FA sign and a first pick would go a long way to help our mobile young QB.

 

then get him a TE RB and WR in later rounds.

Edited December 31, 2018 by Nester

[DCOrange]

32 minutes ago, peterpan said:

We need a wr with size.  A big catch radius guy would mesh well with Allens style.   Think about it.  Allen has accuracy issues.  The best part of his game is buying time and heaving it down field.  We need a guy who can jump up and catch contested balls, WHILE COVERED.  

 

A guy like Mike Evans.  I wonder if he is available to trade?

 

Lol he is not. Tampa literally just locked him up long-term this year and he put up the best season in franchise history. He's going nowhere.

 

Buffalo can go for a big catch radius guy on Day 2 of the draft. Collin Johnson, Hakeem Butler, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, etc. Even Day 3 will have some of these guys like David Sills and Tyre Brady.

[BillsMafia13]

15 hours ago, Zebrastripes said:

Go BPA no matter what side of the ball he plays on.  Reaching on a guy because of drafting for need rarely works out.

How does that make sense, if we need a OT and we reach 5 spots, he will be bad for us but he would have succeeded if he got drafted at pick 15?

[mannc]

3 hours ago, vincec said:

You’re nuts Matt Millen.

So 20 years ago, the Lions used a bunch of first round picks on crappy WRs (until they drafted Calvin Johnson, that is) and that means WRs aren't more valuable than interior defensive linemen?  Wake up and smell the coffee...☕    

[Boatdrinks]

25 minutes ago, BillsMafia13 said:

How does that make sense, if we need a OT and we reach 5 spots, he will be bad for us but he would have succeeded if he got drafted at pick 15?

These days , I don’t think 5 spots or less qualifies as a “ reach” in the classic sense. 

[BillsMafia13]

1 minute ago, Boatdrinks said:

These days , I don’t think 5 spots or less qualifies as a “ reach” in the classic sense. 

Thats beside the point

[Zebrastripes]

26 minutes ago, BillsMafia13 said:

How does that make sense, if we need a OT and we reach 5 spots, he will be bad for us but he would have succeeded if he got drafted at pick 15?

What happens when you reach for need is the team stays average.  You should be getting elite talent in the top ten not average talent.  

[BillsMafia13]

Just now, Zebrastripes said:

What happens when you reach for need is the team stays average.  You should be getting elite talent in the top ten not average talent.  

So if a safety was ranked ( which is all subjective and guessing) #7 overall but an OT was ranked #13. You would choose the safety in this situation?

[Zebrastripes]

15 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Because I think what really happens is teams rate prospects and put them into tiers. 

 

So if a Safety is a 7.6 this year and an OT is a 7.5 they fall into the same band and the Bills would take the OT. 

 

I think teams group similarly graded players and then pick from need out of that group. 

I agree with this grading procedure in the middle and late rounds but I truly believe teams do not have groups for top 10 talent.  I think they identify the 10 to 15 best players as an individual then they start grouping guys together after that.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

17 hours ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

Maybin we will get the pick right, maybin we won't. 

 

You're a Bad Man, @PlayoffsPlease

[Doc]

I didn’t read through the whole thread, but my son was saying that the difference between a win and a loss yesterday was just two spots. I’m glad they won. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

10 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

Beane will try Free Agency first, but they need a minimum of three OL replacements (C, G and T .).. Guys like Saffold will be in huge demand..

 

If he can’t get them all in FA then he better be utilising high draft picks because Allen can’t have the same situation next season as he has had to deal with this year..

 

Yes.  I shudder when I read about drafting a defender high.  We have got to, GOT TO, invest heavily in OL and offensive skill positions.

We need to pick up who we can in FA, but that won't be enough.  We must get at least one top OL talent in the draft.

 

 

[Zebrastripes]

4 minutes ago, BillsMafia13 said:

So if a safety was ranked ( which is all subjective and guessing) #7 overall but an OT was ranked #13. You would choose the safety in this situation?

First I would try to trade down then if nothing was there I'm going BPA.  Passing on elite talent to take average talent is just senseless to me no matter the position they play.

[BillsMafia13]

Every player is a gamble, there is no quantifiable breakdown of how players careers will turn out.  The higher BPA could always bust easier than a lower player.  Its not black and white but ill take a position of great need over talent at an already set position any day 

[Reed83HOF]

I give up, just tweeted by the NFL:

 

 

 

 

Edited December 31, 2018 by Reed83HOF

[Simon Says]

18 hours ago, wppete said:

Jonah Williams or Ed Oliver. 

Will Oliver be there? Free agency dictates the draft and vice/versa. Bills dont have to reach

23 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Yes.  I shudder when I read about drafting a defender high.  We have got to, GOT TO, invest heavily in OL and offensive skill positions.

We need to pick up who we can in FA, but that won't be enough.  We must get at least one top OL talent in the draft.

 

 

90+ million wont help address the OLine? Perhaps Beane prefers vets up front

[OCinBuffalo]

I am glad we got top 10...because that adds value to the pick in terms of 5th year clause(I think), and, it's not so high as to make a trade all or nothing.

 

Thus, right now, I support trading down. This team is not 2 guys away, it's about 8 guys away. Upside: none of those 8 guys play the standard top 5 draft pick positions. Hopefully FA, with our huge cap space and more than a few good players on the market, solves some of this. Perhaps it solves all of it, and allows us to stay put? That's fine too. But, I'd rather get an extra 2nd, this year, if we can, and use it on the BPA. Also, it's pretty clear that we need WR, DB, and OL(and perhaps a DL). I'd rather not put all our eggs in one basket(Watkins). I'd much rather we get lots of guys all over the roster, and spread the risk. College WRs today are less prepared for the NFL than they have been since the 1950-60s. They aren't taught nearly well enough to read defenses(in many cases they aren't even allowed), to run the entire rout tree, to break press coverage, to block properly(= not give away the play by how they line up, never mind block). Spread offenses, read/option, looking to the sidelines for reads, running 3 routs only, all against zone defenses 85% of plays, is why we find ourselves here. 

 

This is why I rarely watch college football. If I wanted to watch JV football, or play Madden, I would. Any objective truths that might be found in college are routinely overwhelmed by subjective conjecture. One can easily spend 4 hours listening to a debate about conferences/teams/players, and nothing will be proven, now or ever == waste of time. In the NFL the opposite is true. Teams are judged by math. Playoffs are earned by math. We can argue the why, but the how is never in question. The added benefit is that I'm 100% objective at draft time. Got a dispute between which player to take? I'm your poster. Thus, show me the tape/stats/whatever.

 

Best argument wins.

[Chicken Boo]

The trenches will be addressed in free agency.  I trust Beane in that regard.

 

This year's draft should be all about acquiring offensive skill position talent!  Give Josh EVERYTHING he needs to succeed.

 

I can't believe folks are banging the table for a DT. ?  A defensive end, I can understand.

 

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, Pablocruise said:

Will Oliver be there? Free agency dictates the draft and vice/versa. Bills dont have to reach

90+ million wont help address the OLine? Perhaps Beane prefers vets up front

Lots of teams have LOTS of money.  It may not get us the proper upgrades that we need. We need good players.