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EJ Manuel: What went wrong after year 1?


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Just a reminder that Blake Bottles is a QB in this league. I just don't think EJ was ever gonna be an elite QB. If he was drafted in the 3rd or 4th his development might have taken a very different arc. But there was intense pressure to have him get out there and succeed with no one to actually help develop the guy.

 

Josh might get killed before we get him help.

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- He was very slow reading a defense and checked-down way too often

- His way of avoiding the pass rush was doing a backwards spin move, which usually resulted in an extra 5-10 yards lost on the sack

- His throwing mechanics were awful, resulting in terrible accuracy

- His play resulted in way too many turnovers, both with interceptions and fumbles

 

Honestly, there was nothing about EJ Manuel that ever impressed me.  He had a few OK games during first month of his rookie year, but then it was all downhill after that point.  You would get a decent throw occasionally (maybe every 2-3 games), surrounded by the unending 4-yard passes on 3rd and long, the high misfires over the middle almost getting our receivers injured, and his pathetic/failed attempts to avoid pass rushers.  He had a strong running game to support him.  He had good wide receivers.  He had a decent O-Line.  But he was always the weakest link, dragging an otherwise playoff-caliber team down.  I don't think anything "went wrong" with Manuel.  Teams figured out pretty quickly what he struggled with the most (there were a lot of things), and he never improved his game.  He never got better at reading defenses, never got better with his mechanics/accuracy and always panicked under pressure. 

 

Although I do agree that our coaching staff gave up too quickly (considering he was a 1st Round Pick, only a month into his second season), time eventually proved them right.  EJ has gotten opportunities and failed to do anything with them. 

 

Even if there are some similar rookie stats between Manuel and Josh Allen, the comparisons pretty much stop there.  The difference between the two guys is like night and day.  Where Manuel never really progressed after his senior year at Florida State, you can easily see a trend of improvement with Allen in all aspects of his game (mechanics, pocket presence, accuracy, etc.).  Where Manuel had good surrounding talent, Allen is pretty much carrying the offense by himself. 

 

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27 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

EJ threw the ball like he was shooting darts. Super odd throwing motion. (In fact, other than Rivers, I’m not sure I’ve seen such an unnatural motion.) He was never going to make it in the NFL trying to throw to receivers with that style.

I never noticed anuthing particularly odd in his throwimg motion.

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I am not bitter about the EJ pick. I think his ceiling was a top 20 starter. He was more of a game manager than a play maker. His ball placement was just okay but did improve a lot while he was here. He was always a little too slow to diagnose the play and didn’t create many plays. I don’t think the coaching did him any favours though, he should have at least developed into a good backup QB imo.

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9 hours ago, DBilz2500 said:

Couldn’t scan the field, terrible accuracy(don’t care what stats say he threw tons of checkdowns to boost %), not a natural thrower, terrible pocket presence. Allen, with much less to work with, already looks light years ahead of EJ after 1st year using the eye test 

This, even his check downs were awkward as hell.  Cant count how many he spiked at the receivers feet from 8 yards away

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2 hours ago, Capco said:

What went wrong after year 1? 

 

EJ Manuel went wrong.  

 

Honestly though, I used to be in the bandwagon that EJ just wasn't given enough of a chance and that the whole "eye test" thing was a load of bull.  But after watching Josh Allen play this year with far less talent than EJ had around him, I finally get what they were saying.  

 

Granted, Josh has made some awful throws this year (the two INTs last week come to mind), but I still think the guy just has "it", whatever the hell "it" even is.  I never got that feeling with EJ in every game he played in the same way that I do with Allen. 

 

Sometimes EJ would turn "it" on and wow you, but Josh has "it" on 24/7.  

Kinda just hit me, Allen has the Brett Favre kind of mentality when he steps on the field

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Its the same for most young QBs. In the offseason teams watch all your tape and get all your mental tendencies based on down and distances, same thing they do to coordinators. They make plans on defense around taking away what you do best. If you can overcome that you're on the road to becoming a good player. If you can't you bust out.

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I saw them both.  EJ's accuracy was terrible, Allen's is borderline ok at this point.  EJ had deer in the headlights looks in the backfield under pressure, Allen knows what to do...either dance around in the pocket and get the throw off, or take off.  EJ took a number of big hits, Allen got hit, but that was mostly by his choice wanting the extra couple of yards.  EJ won a big one against Carolina the first year, but we haven't seen that yet from Allen......although one could argue the Detroit win was sort of that caliber win.  anyhow, I was an EJ detractor immediately when he missed the wr's by 10 yards consistently.   Allen may miss occasionally, but not like EJ.  I like where Allen is right now, and he will mature if he doesn't get hurt.

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5 hours ago, Jasovon said:

The QB makes the receivers? So Josh needs to hit his receivers more in the hands and chest does he? 

 

You need both, you cannot win in the NFL with practice squad receivers. Look at Green Bay this season and tell me they don't miss Jordy Nelson. 

 

Green Bay had all it needed to be a Wild Card team.  Seriously, for as bad as it has seemed from the outside...The Packers are just barely going to miss the playoffs.

 

7-8-1

 

with a tie against Vikings based on a bogus penalty on Matthews.  So 8-8.

 

Then they had a 2 point loss to the Rams, and  3 point loses to Seahawks.  Plus a few other 1 score game loses.

 

Rams game was the Montgomery Kickoff Fumble...Seahawks game the Packers defense blew a 14-3 lead.

 

 

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Josh Allen is dramatically more skilled and so has dramatically more upside than Manuel. 

 

I wanted to believe in Manuel and so rationalized he was going to get better and better... and that his almost on target passes were the kinds of balls that young quarterbacks threw.

 

But he rarely put the ball where it needed to be, forcing receivers to stop, change routes, or get mauled going for the ball.  I was happy when Manuel was in the vicinity, thinking that meant he would eventually get it right.

 

But that was nonsense--Manuel did not have a good, accurate arm.  He could not learn the needed skills, as he simply didn't have them.

 

But Josh Allen has a real NFL arm and  likely elite NFL QB athleticism and leadership.  He throws a great ball, on target, with receivers in motion, and can make any throw.  His low percentage of completions is the result of many drops by receivers and of taking risks to make something happen (often because of the dismal running attack this year).

 

I could be rationalizing again, but really believe that the facts indicate that Josh Allen will be a great NFL quarterback--and soon. 

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EJ was a hope in first 4 games. I remember his winning drive in last seconds against Panthers. But after injury vs Browns he became injury-prone like a Chinese doll and began to afraid of runs, contact. Allen ran for 3 games by 100yrds in a row making hurdles over star lb. 

 EJ's checkdownd passes were inaccurate terribly. Josh has the same % but he throws longer passes and receivers always drop. EJ had Woods, Hogan, Stevie Johnson and Sammy Watkins and reliable OL.   Zay  and KB in this seson shape are defiinitely worse .

And he had weaker mentality. He lost job to Orton and to TT.   Allen won his competition for job although he was supposed to sit for a year.

 I am not sold 100% but I like Allen and I believe he'll be our guy for long time.

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2 hours ago, billsfan1959 said:

There is no doubt that Allen passes up shorter, safer, and more certain completions to look for those in that 25-40 yard range, and, with more experience, I believe he'll get better at knowing when to take those shorter, higher percentage, throws. However, I absolutely love that he looks for those 25-40 yard passes first and that is who he is. I hope they put the right talent around him to maximize that aspect of his game.

I was having a conversation with someone Sunday about this. I argued that this is the time for Allen to try those throws. See what he can do at this level against this competition. Can I make this throw? What about this one? Spend a whole off season watching tape and be better next year.

 

I don't care if he throws a INT while trying to fit a ball into a tight window. I'd be more concerned if the QB with arguably the strongest arm in the league wasn't willing to try

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33 minutes ago, BillsMafia13 said:

Kinda just hit me, Allen has the Brett Favre kind of mentality when he steps on the field

That's his best quality. Since the Miami throw to Clay I've been throwing the Brett Favre (who also lacked touch in his throws early on) with wheels comparison.. since these are the types of throws and risks nobody in their right mind makes but have the arm and gumption to get away with it. Appears to have the same presence in the huddle (although I seriously doubt he is nearly as funny and can keep the offense as loose as Brett did)

 

He's not Steve Young (really bad comparison), but ideally, best case ontario, he's Favre. CONFIDENT, talented, frustrating, equally rewarding. He's a gunslinger. I make the ceiling at Brett Favre. The floor is being nothing beyond Favre's first Packers year (which is a great improvement from Allen's rookie year regardless, and not bad at all: just likely not enough).

Edited by BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P
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I was of the opinion then and even more so now that he needed to be allowed to win or lose games on his own. Marrone told him not to lose the game which is a terrible mentality to grow in. I am a math teacher and my students who are willing to make mistakes make greater gains then those who are unwilling. 

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10 hours ago, wppete said:

He was flat out a bad QB. But seemed like a good guy. 

 

I think we forget what the OP linked: he showed flashes.  During his rookie year, overall his performance was not atypical of rookie "teething pains".

 

I personally think EJM got something akin to the "Yips" between conflicting advice, no QB coach and an inexperienced OC his rookie season, and possibly conflicting coaching advice,  but that's just my theory.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

I was of the opinion then and even more so now that he needed to be allowed to win or lose games on his own. Marrone told him not to lose the game which is a terrible mentality to grow in. I am a math teacher and my students who are willing to make mistakes make greater gains then those who are unwilling. 

 

This is a great point. If people in any profession are allowed to grow from mistakes they will develop much more than people scared to make mistakes.

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5 hours ago, Jasovon said:

The QB makes the receivers? So Josh needs to hit his receivers more in the hands and chest does he? 

 

You need both, you cannot win in the NFL with practice squad receivers. Look at Green Bay this season and tell me they don't miss Jordy Nelson. 

We pounded this point home with Tyrod not getting production from his WRs when we justified booting him.

 

"He regressed every year" his WRs got worse every year. The receivers he had last year were garbage compared to even now. We cut 80% of those guys that weren't even good enough for Allen's crappy WR corps.

 

"They'd do better with a quarterback that can throw people because WRs get production out of good quarterbacks." yes.. with a great QB AND A TRUE #1 MAYBE A SOLID #2.. duh some lesser WRs are going to be matched up against lesser corners, not game planned for, and will get better production from quarterbacks that can and are allowed to spread the ball around.

 

Just saying we made these quoted points for Tyrod. Not that he showed enough in his tenure. But some consistency in team building philosophy would be nice. Tyrod was a godsend when he came to supplant EJ with the wealth of WR talent he had when he showed up (when healthy).. As are most quarterbacks that belong in this league.

 

His regression should have been clearly apparent to be correlated with the WRs he gradually lost over his tenure. And that should have made this FO a little more aware of the absolute lack of receiving talent we had in store for JA.

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There were two factors at work with EJ:

1.) There was no reasonable plan in place to develop him. The Bills coaches started him too soon, asked him to run a no-huddle offense from day 1 (seriously, who asks a raw rookie to do that?!), gave him a crappy offensive scheme to work with in general (who here likes Hackett Ball?), and gave up on him too soon.

2.) There are two kinds of inaccuracy. There's the kind Josh Allen has, where he'll throw 5 passes in a row right on the money, perfectly placed, then sail an easy throw over hisWR's head. Let's call this sporadic inaccuracy. Then there's the second kind, which EJ had, which is area code accuracy. That's where the QB more often than not gets the ball in the vicinity of his WR, but never accurately enough to allow YAC or a play to be made. EJ often hung his receivers out to dry or made it so that they had to make an insane, acrobatic leap to secure the ball. While Allen's type of inaccuracy is something you can overcome and tolerate, EJ's is not. So despite item 1 (bad infrastructure around QB, bad coaching, etc), it's questionable whether EJ Manuel would EVER have become an upper echelon QB.

I will say this: The Bills damn well better give Josh Allen more support and more time than they gave EJ Manuel. 

Edited by Logic
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1 hour ago, jaybee said:

So what happens if Allen plays at the same level next year ?  Its very possible.  Do we draft another?  Do we suffer 4 years thru his rookie contract....because we drafted him high?  Hand the Keys to Matt ?  

 

Would love to see him develop but you've got to be concerned if you've watched him so far.  

As another poster above already mentioned, it’s clear that the lack of talent around JA right now is holding him back from his best self, not the other way around. How could you not like the direction he’s going? I’ve been super encouraged by most of what I’ve seen so far from him, including his priority of looking for intermediate/deep options first—we’ve been missing that kind of aggressive mind set from our signal callers for how long around here? Since Kelly? Everyone knows how deficient our roster is right now compared to 2013-14, yet we have a buzz/excitement about Sundays that has been missing for far too long.

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19 minutes ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

I was of the opinion then and even more so now that he needed to be allowed to win or lose games on his own. Marrone told him not to lose the game which is a terrible mentality to grow in. I am a math teacher and my students who are willing to make mistakes make greater gains then those who are unwilling. 

That's true. But he was gifted our best Bills team in ages. I would never sacrifice a good team for a rookie quarterback who can only thrive under a no pressure 6-10 season of development like Allen basically played with. Totally with Marrone here if that's your take.

 

Rookie quarterback needs to learn what it takes to win above all. Steelers would have been nuts to have Big Ben have a no-pressure pick happy season with the team around him. Instead he learned how to win and was all the more confident too. Same with Brady.

 

These guys were young game managers that benefitted from their early success piggybacking on great teams before they eventually were handed the ropes to "win or lose on their own"

 

On a bad team I'd agree with you. On the 2014 Bills.. Heck no! We were good QB play away from being a legit playoff team.

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11 hours ago, Another Fan said:

I guess some will argue otherwise but imo Manuel’s first year here wasn’t that bad.  He held his own in the first game of the year against the Patriots, defeated the Ravens (they previously just won the Super Bowl), and looked like a boss in one game against the Jets that year.  It wasn’t until 2014 where it was obvious he really hadn’t developed.

 

Was that attributed to coaches having more film on him, him losing his confidence, or possibly poor coaching here?  I can’t help to make some parallels to EJs first year to Josh’s.  They both missed a few games there rookie years, there’s a good chance this team will win 6 games like that team did, and imo they both showed flashes of what’s to come while still some things to work on.  

 

Just have my fingers crossed Josh will work out.  I mean at one time EJ was capable of these kind of plays:

 

 

He sucked and was figured out. 

 

His best games were his first two. He barely beat the Ravens as a starter with 5 TOs.

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24 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think we forget what the OP linked: he showed flashes.  During his rookie year, overall his performance was not atypical of rookie "teething pains".

 

I personally think EJM got something akin to the "Yips" between conflicting advice, no QB coach and an inexperienced OC his rookie season, and possibly conflicting coaching advice,  but that's just my theory.

 

 

Ironically. The game that probably killed his career, Jags in London.. his second half performance was amazing to me. That throw to Robert Woods in particular. First half was definitely a case of the yips, and I always imagined the 2nd half was "I've screwed up so bad, this game / my near end to my career can't get any worse. I don't care anymore I'm just going to have to play the best possible performance I have" and EJ on a good day with no nerves was always the best version of EJ.

 

Ya just can't have that in quarterbacks. Almost everyday has to be a no nerves best version of yourself if you're quarterback. Toughest mental position in sports.

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45 minutes ago, Mister Defense said:

Josh Allen is dramatically more skilled and so has dramatically more upside than Manuel. 

 

I wanted to believe in Manuel and so rationalized he was going to get better and better... and that his almost on target passes were the kinds of balls that young quarterbacks threw.

 

But he rarely put the ball where it needed to be, forcing receivers to stop, change routes, or get mauled going for the ball.  I was happy when Manuel was in the vicinity, thinking that meant he would eventually get it right.

 

But that was nonsense--Manuel did not have a good, accurate arm.  He could not learn the needed skills, as he simply didn't have them.

 

But Josh Allen has a real NFL arm and  likely elite NFL QB athleticism and leadership.  He throws a great ball, on target, with receivers in motion, and can make any throw.  His low percentage of completions is the result of many drops by receivers and of taking risks to make something happen (often because of the dismal running attack this year).

 

I could be rationalizing again, but really believe that the facts indicate that Josh Allen will be a great NFL quarterback--and soon. 

I do not think Josh is dramatically more skilled than EJ.

 

Both have serious deficiencies to their talent pool.

 

I do think Josh is a dramatically better athlete.  Josh Allen is really quite a naturally gifted athlete, but then again, so is Tim Tebow.

 

 

Just now, BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P said:

Ironically. The game that probably killed his career, Jags in London.. his second half performance was amazing to me. That throw to Robert Woods in particular. First half was definitely a case of the yips, and I always imagined the 2nd half was "I've screwed up so bad, this game / my near end to my career can't get any worse. I don't care anymore I'm just going to have to play the best possible performance I have" and EJ on a good day with no nerves was always the best version of EJ.

 

Ya just can't have that in quarterbacks. Almost everyday has to be a no nerves best version of yourself if you're quarterback. Toughest mental position in sports.

One thing I consistently notice in watching Aaron Rodgers during Packers games...just the way he walks around between plays, the look on his face, the body language...the dude appears to be totally calm and under control at all times.

 

Many guys are overwhelmed with all that they have to do to play QB in the NFL, and I understand it!   But then you have Peyton Manning, Brady, Rodgers, Joe Montana, Jimbo, Dan Marino....they have an ability to play the position without having to push everything to the limit; they can play under control.

 

I think that is a key to success, along with lots of other things you have to be able to do!

 

 

 

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My view is essentially that EJ had some, limited but some, success as a rookie (it was a reasonably decent rookie season) partly because he started straight away. I hate to bust the narrative that sitting behind Kevin Kolb would have helped him but for me EJ Manuel was never a natural passer. He wasn't in college and wasn't in the NFL. But he did have a certain playmaking ability and played with a freedom to let it rip. The longer he was in the NFL and people tried to coach him - on technique and footwork - and force fed him a "play safe" mentality the more he thought about things and the worse he got.

 

The point others have made about his fragile confidence also has a ring of truth to it. EJ simply wasn't mentally resilient enough to cope with the scrutiny and criticism that comes with being a Quarterback in the NFL - let alone being a Quarterback in an NFL city bereft of a QB for so long. Then the offseason working with a QB guru didn't help. He was noticeably more robotic the second year and was trying to throw with a natural and more classic passing motion rather than the aim and fire style he had in his first year. He was less accurate trying to pass than trying to aim and throw. He obviously really struggled in camp and Marrone lost patience. He did then play pretty well against Chicago and Miami to open the season but San Diego rattled him and Houston rushed the hell out of him and the moment the pick 6 happened I felt it was over for him.

 

Ultimately while not liking any of the QBs in that draft (it was before I had started my grade structure so I can't honestly compare retrospectively but I didn't think there was a 1st rounder in the class) I was with the Bills in that if I had to swing and miss on one I'd have swung and missed on EJ. The reality is he was a middling NFL prospect who got worse the more people tried to refine him and lost whatever natural unlearned spark was there originally.

 

 

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Just now, Nextmanup said:

I do not think Josh is dramatically more skilled than EJ.

 

Both have serious deficiencies to their talent pool.

 

I do think Josh is a dramatically better athlete.  Josh Allen is really quite a naturally gifted athlete, but then again, so is Tim Tebow.

 

 

Not dramatically more skilled, I agree. I think the difference is intangibles. BTW both EJ and JA are dramatically more skilled QBs than Tebow haha, idc who the better athlete of the 3 is.

 

JA has much better intangibles so far. And by that I mean confidence in his talent on the field more-so than effort / film study / off field habits, etc. which EJ was fine at. The difference I see is on-field intangibles. But to the OP's point.. he's gotta improve from this year whereas EJ didn't. It's going to hurt him career wise especially if he doesn't improve with better supporting talent.

 

I mean stats DO matter at some point let's be real here. Bad stats over a long enough sample size are an indicator that all strengths you see on the eye test don't mean a hill of beans compared to any weaknesses you perceive as inconsequential. At some point bad career stats in a quarterback can be pointed to something as a major flaw.. be it poor touch on passes, bad decisions on interceptions, attempting too much hero ball. Dude's gotta kill the Lions convincingly the way both teams played in the future. Dolphins, Jets, Patriots: stop having poor 2nd quarter performances.

 

 

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9 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

 

This is a cop out post and you know it. The differences are night & day. Stats are for -well, you know..

Really? They're pretty similar, actually. The Bills will wind up 6-10 or 5-11 with a generally pretty good defense and a terrible offense that struggles to run the ball and a big, strong-armed rookie qb with *genuine* (i.e., not made-up) accuracy issues who missed a handful of games mid-season and who also flashes excellent run skills.  How is that different, big picture-wise, from the 2013 team? I'm in no way saying that Allen ends up like Manuel at all, but it's fair to say that there are some comparables to work with. 

Edited by dave mcbride
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I was just thinking about the EJ/JA 1st year comparison. Josh kind of reminds me of EJ - Tall, big arm, not very accurate, great athlete, always a threat to run. I would bet their stat sheets look very similar for their rookie years. I think the big difference is that Allen has shown improvement in reading the field and getting the ball out quickly (instead of bailing on the pass and running for it like he did so much in earlier games). EJ never got over that hump. Allen is also way more confident and enthusiastic.

 

Allen should develop into the better player, but that being said, I haven't seen anything this season that makes me think it's guaranteed to happen. 

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1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

Really? They're pretty similar, actually. The Bills will wind up 6-10 or 5-11 with a generally pretty good defense and a terrible offense that struggles to run the bull and a big, strong-armed rookie qb with *genuine* (i.e., not made-up) accuracy issues who missed a handful of games mid-season and who also flashes excellent run skills.  How is that different, big picture-wise, from the 2013 team? I'm in no way saying that Allen ends up like Manuel at all, but it's fair to say that there are some comparables to work with.

 

Even the defences are similar.... good but inconsistent and didn't make many clutch plays. The defense took the next step in 2014 with Schwartz in situ..... think this defense still needs pass rushers to do the same.

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4 hours ago, Troll Toll said:

I remember EJ hanging all his receivers out to dry.

Edwards started doing this more and more towards the end as well. You will NEVER last at the position if you're getting your receivers blasted.

 

The rule changes have mitigated this quite a bit, but it's a sign a QB doesn't have the awareness required and the receivers are gonna quickly turn on you.

 

There's not much that statistically distinguishes Allen from Manuel as rookies if we're being honest. Manuel had a better rating, better TD/INT pctg, more yards per game, and less rushing yards. The hope is that with better personnel, Allen will make the leap that Manuel couldn't. Allen has far more talent and seems to play with an edge so we shall see. Towards the end of Manuel's time, it was clear he lacked confidence and that was a result of poor performances. Allen's gonna have to sustain some success to avoid that fate.

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1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think we forget what the OP linked: he showed flashes.  During his rookie year, overall his performance was not atypical of rookie "teething pains".

 

I personally think EJM got something akin to the "Yips" between conflicting advice, no QB coach and an inexperienced OC his rookie season, and possibly conflicting coaching advice,  but that's just my theory.

 

 

Exactly what the poster alluding to his "throwing motion" was driving at.

 

Whether it was confidence or advise from too many directions, he really started aiming the ball and that resulted in even poorer accuracy.(Yips if you will)

 

I'm of the OPINION that the Bills didn't ruin Manuel and that no QB is ever truly "ruined" by circumstance. If Manuel had the fortitude to be a high quality NFL QB, he'd have been able to to block out all the external noise and just play football. It takes a special breed to play the most demanding position in sports and EJ wasn't one of the few.

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The number 1 most important thing for any QB to develop is:  Opportunity.

 

Once Marrone decided to play Orton because he wanted a Vet, EJ lost his chance to be a young QB who will be afforded the opportunity to make mistakes and grow from it.

 

He was thrown out there before he was ready and yetshowed some promise.  Then despite being 2-2 he had his opportunity taken from him because Marrone wanted to start a bad vet.  Funny, he stubbornly stuck with another bad bet in Jax too despite there being several upgrades available since him being there.  

 

By the time EJ got another opportunity two things happened.  Rex got who had been the apple of his eye for several years, and that was Tyrod.  EJ out played Tyrod that preseason yet still didn’t get the job.  So now EJ still hasn’t gotten another opportunity, and confidence is surely being affected as well.  But from this point on, he has NO ROOM for mistakes.  He can’t make a mistake, review film, and improve anymore.  Now he makes a mistake and doesn’t get to play anymore.

 

So for me, what damaged him the most was the loss of the opportunity to go out and both make good and bad plays without losing his chance to keep playing.  Doesn’t mean he would have ever gotten there, but I think there is definite reason to believe his development was significantly impacted negatively by losing his chance early to play and learn from the good and the bad plays.

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