How often do "project" quarterbacks work out?

[Logic]

Edited October 10, 2018 by Logic

[Mat68]

15 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

I understand what you mean, but completely sheltering Allen and virtually taking the ball out of his throwing hand, as we did against the Titans, makes zero sense.

 

He needs to play the position fully, and learn/develop if/where/when he can.

 

if Derek Anderson plays a game without Allen being injured, I'll go insane.

 

 

I agree with you.  Imo they need to script getting Allen in rythem.  They did it once this year @ Minn.  It's not a surprise it was his best game.  

[LSHMEAB]

Everybody mentions Locker, but another guy you could compare Allen to is Ryan Tannehill. Both are uber talented but had less than stellar numbers in college. Largely drafted on potential and also in the top 10, but not top 5 due to concerns about his accuracy.

 

When I think of project QB, I think of a guy who's production didn't match his talent at the collegiate level.

[Victory Formation]

2 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Everybody mentions Locker, but another guy you could compare Allen to is Ryan Tannehill. Both are uber talented but had less than stellar numbers in college. Largely drafted on potential and also in the top 10, but not top 5 due to concerns about his accuracy.

 

When I think of project QB, I think of a guy who's production didn't match his talent at the collegiate level.

Cam Newton was a project too IIRC, people questioned if he could be a pocket QB or if he was just a gimmicky running QB. Many Bills fans didn't even want him at 3.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

52 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

This is not true.  Jared Goff and Wentz "worked out" year 2.  Derek Carr "worked out" year 2.  Russell Wilson "worked out" year 1.  

 

And gone down hill ever since.  He's a great example of the second tier "franchise QB" which I define as decent QB's had 1 or 2 very good years, get paid top franchise $$ once their rookie contract is over, but once they're paid that amount, not enough money left to field a top level team around them.  Some QB's Rodgers, Fauve, Brady Manning, Brees are good enough that they can take decent talent around them and still keep the team at the top level.  But guys like  Wilson, Newton, Flacco, Daulton, etc don't have enough talent for the money they earn.

[DuckyBoys]

Tannehill and Cutler are good comps  Both shot up in the draft based on combine not their body of work in college  Hopefully Josh turns out much better

[Ol Dirty B]

38 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

There is already talk in LA about drafting a QB to replace Goff because they feel it is the best way to keep talent and get draft picks back.  If they decide to move on after next year to save cap space is he a success?

 

 

 

Do you have a link to this? I've heard nothing of the sort.

4 minutes ago, NewDayBills said:

Cam Newton was a project too IIRC, people questioned if he could be a pocket QB or if he was just a gimmicky running QB. Many Bills fans didn't even want him at 3.

 

He threw for 400 yards in each of his first two games... He was drafted to immediately start. 

[DuckyBoys]

Just now, Ol Dirty B said:

 

Do you have a link to this? I've heard nothing of the sort.

That was a theory Barnwell wrote about last week  Basically trade off your qb before his rookie contract is up to allow you to spend his cap money on other positions while endlessly reloading at qb  That way you to dont end up with Joe Flucco long term and no money for the rest of your roster. 

[Ol Dirty B]

Just now, DuckyBoys said:

That was a theory Barnwell wrote about last week  Basically trade off your qb before his rookie contract is up to allow you to spend his cap money on other positions while endlessly reloading at qb  That way you to dont end up with Joe Flucco long term and no money for the rest of your roster. 

 

Ok I missed it. I'll have to check out that article, that's crazy to me. 

 

Thanks.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

 

[Victory Formation]

3 minutes ago, Ol Dirty B said:

He threw for 400 yards in each of his first two games... He was drafted to immediately start. 

That just means you, like the Panthers were right. I wanted Cam Newton desperately, but many many many Bills fans didn't even want him at 3, there were rumors that the Panthers were open to trading out of 1, ultimately they didn't get an offer they liked. Cam Newton was highly controversial coming out, whether you or I liked him doesn't matter, he was thought to be a runner that may never be a polished passer.

[Ol Dirty B]

Just now, NewDayBills said:

That just means you, like the Panthers were right. I wanted Cam Newton desperately, but many many many Bills fans didn't even want him at 3, there were rumors that the Panthers were open to trading out of 1, ultimately they didn't get an offer they liked. Cam Newton was highly controversial coming out, whether you or I liked him doesn't matter, he was thought to be a runner that may never be a polished passer.

 

Oh no trust me, I wasn't right. I didn't want him at all. I'll admit I was totally wrong on him. I didn't trust the 1 year at Auburn and thought he relied on his legs too much.

 

I was completely wrong. I could be wrong here too. I just don't recall him being a labelled a project QB.

 

When I think of project QBs, I think of guys drafted to sit and learn. Or atleast that is an aspect of it in my view. Guys like Allen, Rudolph, or going way back like a Daunte Culpepper. Guys drafted to sit and develop are more project QBs. Tebow was a project QB in my opinion. I just remember Newton being a different caliber prospect than these guys.

 

Again, it was 7 years ago so I could be wrong.

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, Klaista2k said:

How often do these young quarterbacks that  are considered "projects" actually pan out?

 

Do they usually bust or is there a lot of examples of guys that have actually worked out?

 

 

 

I dunno...Favre was considered a Project QB to some degree...by his own admission if he stayed in Atlanta he would been a bust.

[Ol Dirty B]

1 minute ago, matter2003 said:

I dunno...Favre was considered a Project QB to some degree...by his own admission if he stayed in Atlanta he would been a bust.

 

That's actually a good example. I think a few others have brought it up too.

[Victory Formation]

1 minute ago, Ol Dirty B said:

 

Oh no trust me, I wasn't right. I didn't want him at all. I'll admit I was totally wrong on him. I didn't trust the 1 year at Auburn and thought he relied on his legs too much.

 

I was completely wrong. I could be wrong here too. I just don't recall him being a labelled a project QB.

 

When I think of project QBs, I think of guys drafted to sit and learn. Or atleast that is an aspect of it in my view. Guys like Allen, Rudolph, or going way back like a Daunte Culpepper. Guys drafted to sit and develop are more project QBs. Tebow was a project QB in my opinion. I just remember Newton being a different caliber prospect than these guys.

 

Again, it was 7 years ago so I could be wrong.

Oh, yes, the Panthers weren't even sure about him, when I heard they were shopping the #1 pick, I wanted Buffalo to go up from #3. Anyways yeah. People highly questioned whether or not he'd be a complete QB.

 

Our definition of project QB is completely different by the way. Your definition fits under my spectrum but my definition is simply a QB that is insanely talented with major holes in his game. A project QB can and has started right away before in the past.

[Ol Dirty B]

3 minutes ago, NewDayBills said:

Oh, yes, the Panthers weren't even sure about him, when I heard they were shopping the #1 pick, I wanted Buffalo to go up from #3. Anyways yeah. People highly questioned whether or not he'd be a complete QB.

 

Our definition of project QB is completely different by the way. Your definition fits under my spectrum but my definition is simply a QB that is insanely talented with major holes in his game. A project QB can and has started right away before in the past.

 

Fair enough, I can see how Cam would fit that.

[dollars 2 donuts]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Can we hold off on the annointing until midway through his 2nd season?

 

Thats why I said so far, Hap, but I am with you.

[atlbillsfan1975]

1 hour ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

 

So what is a reach at the draft.  An early first round pick that was in the mix to go #1 overall?  A guy taken 3rd, 7th, 10th, 32nd, 2nd round, 3rd round.  

 

Every QB drafted this year needs work and are reaches for different reasons.  All of them struggled and only 1 started the season as a starter.

 

Again you can troll all you want, but JA is no more of a reach than any of the other QBs drafted - they all need work and we will know if 3-4 years if any or all of these guys will work out.

Don’t fall for it. If everyone ignored these posts they would go away. 

[LSHMEAB]

15 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

And gone down hill ever since.  He's a great example of the second tier "franchise QB" which I define as decent QB's had 1 or 2 very good years, get paid top franchise $$ once their rookie contract is over, but once they're paid that amount, not enough money left to field a top level team around them.  Some QB's Rodgers, Fauve, Brady Manning, Brees are good enough that they can take decent talent around them and still keep the team at the top level.  But guys like  Wilson, Newton, Flacco, Daulton, etc don't have enough talent for the money they earn.

Russell Wilson has absolutely not gone down hill.

 

He's easily one of the top 10 QB's in football. Possibly top 5. Don't be fooled by Seattle's demise.

 

 

[White Linen]

They work out often enough to keep getting drafted. 

[BringBackOrton]

1 hour ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

And gone down hill ever since.  He's a great example of the second tier "franchise QB" which I define as decent QB's had 1 or 2 very good years, get paid top franchise $$ once their rookie contract is over, but once they're paid that amount, not enough money left to field a top level team around them.  Some QB's Rodgers, Fauve, Brady Manning, Brees are good enough that they can take decent talent around them and still keep the team at the top level.  But guys like  Wilson, Newton, Flacco, Daulton, etc don't have enough talent for the money they earn.

?????????

[row_33]

5 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

I only know about Bills players post 1990 and every one except Kelly was a project, so....100% bust.

 

Your answer is 100% bust.

 

Flutie and Bledsoe and Orton were good QBs that were past their prime and/or genetically incapable of winning an NFL playoff game

 

 

[fridge]

As someone stated earlier, Brett Favre is the ultimate example. In recent years, starters that were former “projects” in the draft were Wilson, Big Ben, Flacco, Tannehill.

 

Tannehill is what it looks like when a project QB improves significantly from their rookie year but ends up having a lower ceiling than initially projected.

[row_33]

1 minute ago, fridge said:

As someone stated earlier, Brett Favre is the ultimate example. In recent years, starters that were former “projects” in the draft were Wilson, Big Ben, Flacco, Tannehill.

 

Tannehill is what it looks like when a project QB improves significantly from their rookie year but ends up having a lower ceiling than initially projected.

 

Atlanta had a QB already and Glanville hated Favre.

 

 

 

 

[Vod Kanockers]

6 hours ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

“Project”?

 

i know of at least one labeled a project who has made it, at least so far.

 

Patrick Mahomes.

You mean a QB who has all the physical tools, that just needed to put the game together mentally? Someone who got a chance to sit, watch game tape, and recognize different defensive coverages over the course of a year? A QB who was surrounded with talent before he was put in the starting lineup? What good could that do? I mean.. (“Either he has it, or he doesn’t” right?) Watch him bailing on plays early, because he feels pressure that isn’t there. Because the line almost got him killed on numerous occasions. I’m not saying that he could be what we’ve been waiting for.. but putting him in a position without means to succeed, DEFINITELY isnt doing him any favors in his progress. 

[MrEpsYtown]

I think two of the more successful recent project type quarterbacks are Big Ben and Joe Flacco. Both small school guys with big arms who people had a lot of concerns about in terms of how their skills, footwork etc might translate to the NFL. Ben fell a bit in the draft and Flacco was drafted higher than people thought he would be. Cam Newton was mentioned in this thread. Also I know most people dislike Kaepernick, but he was a pistol offense project that took his team to the Super Bowl and probably would have had a better career if he had Allen's level of commitment to the game. 

 

Many have failed...the Bollers, Leafs, Lockers, Gabberts, Losmans of the world. But I really do feel like Allen's love of and commitment to the game will more than likely lead to him fixing the issues that are present in his game.  

[row_33]

3 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I think two of the more successful recent project type quarterbacks are Big Ben and Joe Flacco. Both small school guys with big arms who people had a lot of concerns about in terms of how their skills, footwork etc might translate to the NFL. Ben fell a bit in the draft and Flacco was drafted higher than people thought he would be. Cam Newton was mentioned in this thread. Also I know most people dislike Kaepernick, but he was a pistol offense project that took his team to the Super Bowl and probably would have had a better career if he had Allen's level of commitment to the game. 

 

Many have failed...the Bollers, Leafs, Lockers, Gabberts, Losmans of the world. But I really do feel like Allen's love of and commitment to the game will more than likely lead to him fixing the issues that are present in his game.  

 

Ben R was the most obvious Hall of Famer I saw play in college, there was no problem with his abilities.

 

all the yahoos laughing at him while his outmatched college team lost at huge stadiums are still clueless about what makes a real NFL QB.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

Mahomes to me was a project. His feet were a mess and he got ansty and less accurate in tight windows in the redzone. Early to say he HAS worked out but it looks pretty darn good from where I am sitting.

[MrEpsYtown]

2 minutes ago, row_33 said:

 

Ben R was the most obvious Hall of Famer I saw play in college, there was no problem with his abilities.

 

all the yahoos laughing at him while his outmatched college team lost at huge stadiums are still clueless about what makes a real NFL QB.

 

 

 

I 100 percent agree with you, but he was still considered a project coming from a spread offense at a small school. His numbers were out of this world good. 

[GunnerBill]

23 minutes ago, fridge said:

As someone stated earlier, Brett Favre is the ultimate example. In recent years, starters that were former “projects” in the draft were Wilson, Big Ben, Flacco, Tannehill.

 

Tannehill is what it looks like when a project QB improves significantly from their rookie year but ends up having a lower ceiling than initially projected.

 

I don't think Wilson was a project. He was polished. He just lacked ideal measurables. That isn't a project to me.

 

Tannehill yep, absolutely a project who has "worked out" in that he is an NFL level QB but yea, limited ceiling.

 

Flacco and Ben came out before I watched any college football or paid real attention to the draft so I can't comment. 

[Bookie Man]

Josh Allen Parsons?

[hondo in seattle]

I get the OP's question but according to some in the NFL, every college QB is a project.  That's why the success rate of even 1st rounders is so disappointing.  They all have stuff to learn & improve and it's hard to predict which ones will get better in the NFL and which won't.  

[Gugny]

Projects aren't drafted in the first round ... let alone the top 10.

 

If a team drafts a QB in the first round, then said team believes that QB WILL BE the starter in the future.

 

Sometimes, those picks are reaches and sometimes they're just bad/stupid picks.  But that still doesn't make the player a project.  Any GM who takes a "maybe" in the first round, frankly, is an idiot.  (the Tebow pick comes to mind)

 

Nathan Peterman was a project pick.  The jury is still out on .... ha .... I'm just kidding!   Obviously, that project didn't pan out.

 

Kurt Warner, Tony Romo, Tom Brady - those are projects who worked out beautifully.  Dak Prescott?  Maybe.

 

Josh Allen is not a project.  Patrick Mahomes is not a project.  Most people who label draft picks as "projects," simply don't like the pick.  I think the term is thrown around loosely and incorrectly.

 

Most GMs aren't picking a QB in the first round if that QB is a "maybe."  As far as this year's first round QBs go, the only one close to being a "project," is Lamont Jackson.  In my opinion, that was either a horrible pick, or they drafted him thinking he's going to be a gadget player and not their next starting QB.

[simpleman]

10 hours ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

I think the image most people have in their minds for what is meant by project QB is someone with all of the physical skills necessary and mental acuity necessary to be an NFL QB, but who is also clearly understood not to be ready to start in the NFL due to the level of his college experience or issues with mechanics. 

Exactly!

 

[RobbRiddick]

You could just as easily ask how often prototype 'sure thing' QBs work out, answer: very rarely. 

 

QB is a position in general where most just 

don't work out in a big way. 

[simpleman]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think Wilson was a project. He was polished. He just lacked ideal measurables. That isn't a project to me.

 

Exactly. It was his height that caused teams to hesitate to take a chance on him. It was the lack of that ideal measurable that caused him to drop in the draft. He was not a project, but a gamble due to his height. He quickly proved he could overcome the lack of height and compete in the NFL at a high level.

 

[mjt328]

13 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I would argue that ALL QB's coming out of college are "projects".  There are some that are bigger projects because they may have more to work on, but just because you are a top tier prospect does not mean you are not a project.  The success rate of all players of all grades or all positions is always less than 50%.  They are all projects, but media and "gurus" like to over use words, so things like "project" is now reserved to guys who people are less certain about.  But make no mistake, every QB and every player for that matter taken in any draft at any slot is a "project".  There is a LOT they need to learn, master, and get better at to succeed in the NFL long term.  

 

Agree 100%.  Every QB is a "project" on some level.  They just come with different starting points.

 

Some need to have their mechanics tweaked.  Some may need a complete overhaul.

Some come from pro-style offenses.  Some need to learn it from scratch.

 

Josh Allen came out needing lots of work on his mechanics and accuracy.  He also came from a small school, and didn't see much high-level competition.  On the other hand, he did come from pro-style offense, which gave him experience navigating a pocket and going through multiple reads on a defense. 

 

So while Allen may be a bigger project than someone like Josh Rosen (big school, excellent throwing mechanics, pro-style offense), he was far-ahead of someone like Cardale Jones (who pretty much needed to learn the quarterback position from scratch).

 

[row_33]

25 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

Agree 100%.  Every QB is a "project" on some level.  They just come with different starting points.

 

Some need to have their mechanics tweaked.  Some may need a complete overhaul.

Some come from pro-style offenses.  Some need to learn it from scratch.

 

Josh Allen came out needing lots of work on his mechanics and accuracy.  He also came from a small school, and didn't see much high-level competition.  On the other hand, he did come from pro-style offense, which gave him experience navigating a pocket and going through multiple reads on a defense. 

 

So while Allen may be a bigger project than someone like Josh Rosen (big school, excellent throwing mechanics, pro-style offense), he was far-ahead of someone like Cardale Jones (who pretty much needed to learn the quarterback position from scratch).

 

 

nah, some came right from college ready to roll, their only problem was going to a crummy team that got their draft rights

 

there is a steep learning curve to the pros

 

and the fact that most top colleges refuse to run an O that is close to a real NFL badly skews our view as to who should be great in the NFL, take the Bama QB this year, he can't run that stuff against men

 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

Best Way is go team by team and see:

 

AFC East 

1. Patriots - Brady - The NFL didn't know a 6th Round Pick would be the GOAT. Pretty quickly showed he was no project because of his accuracy and ability to choose the open man.

2. Dolphins - Tannehill - Somewhat a project. Converted college WR. Has been an average NFL QB. Does not look like a Super Bowl caliber QB.

3. Jets - Darnold - Blue Chip prospect. 

4. Bills - Allen - Project from a small conference with mediocre college production.

 

AFC North

1. Steelers - Roethlisberger - Project? He dominated the MAC and immediately became the starter in Pittsburgh. Not a project. 

2. Ravens - Flacco - Deleware St, I'd say a project QB. Had the one great Playoff run that resulted in a Super Bowl win.

3. Bengals - Dalton - Not a project. Was a winner in college and has been steady in the NFL.

4. Browns - Mayfield - Not a project. #1 Overall. 

 

AFC South

1. Colts - Luck - Not a project. #1 Overall. 

2. Titans - Mariota - Not a project. #2 Overall. 

3. Jaguars - Bortles - #3 Overall pick, but close to a project? 

4. Texans - Watson - #12 Overall, definitely not a Project. Won a National Title over Alabama, almost won a 2nd over Alabama.

 

AFC West

1. Chargers - Rivers - Not a project. #4 overall in 2004 Class.

2. Raiders - Carr - Huge college numbers, not a project. First Rounder.

3. Chiefs - Mahomes - Project? I don't think so, he was a 10th overall pick, huge college production, massive arm. Biggest question was Air Raid offense to Pro.

4. Broncos - Keenum - Project. Career Backup who had great season last year in Minnesota and is getting his crack at starting full-time.

 

NFC East

1. Giants - Manning - #1 Overall, son of Archie Manning, brother of Peyton Manning. Not a project.

2. Eagles - Wentz - Shaky first season, then exploded onto the scene. Not sure if he was a project coming in, most analysts liked him.

3. Redskins - Smith - #1 Overall, early career disappointment, but has been steady for years now. Not a project. 

4. Cowboys - Prescott - Maybe a project. I always thought in college he was more of a running QB, but took command of the Cowboys quickly. 

 

NFC North

1. Packers - Rodgers - Tedford QB was the biggest knock, but not a project. 

2. Lions - Stafford - Not a project, #1 overall pick from SEC school. 

3. Bears - Turbisky - #3 overall, but only one year in College. Call him a project. 

4. Vikings - Cousins - Mid-Round pick, but a well rounded prospect coming out of school. Not a project QB.

 

NFC South

1. Saints - Brees - First pick of the 2nd Round I believe, a early career disappointment, not a project. 

2. Panthers - Newton - #1 Overall, dominant college career, not a project.

3. Buccaneers - Winston - #1 Overall, but shaky decision making and maturity in college. Call him a project, but was a National Champion in college, so not a project on talent.

4. Falcons - Ryan - Not a project. 

 

NFC West

1. Seahawks - Wilson - Seen as too small by Buddy Nix and other 31 teams. Call him a project. 

2. Rams - Goff - #1 Overall - Not a project. 

3. Cardinals - Rosen - Polished passer, not a project. 

4. 49ers - Garrapolo - Small school prospect, was going to continue sitting in New England. Call him a project. 

 

 

So out of 32 starting QBs, I'd say 9 were projects coming into the league. 

 

Definitely Worked

Wilson (HOFer), Flacco, Wentz

 

Too Early but looks like they can play in the NFL, we could parse this group down again to likely Super Bowl winner or not. 

Winston, Garrapolo, Turbisky, Prescott

 

Probably Not  

Tannehill, Keenum and if you want to include Bortles, although he has been to AFC Title Game and his statistics are not atrocious. 

 

Way too early

Allen, but would defy all scouting logic 

 

[John from Riverside]

16 hours ago, Fadingpain said:

Josh Allen, and QBs like Josh Allen.

 

Reaches at the draft.

 

I think that's what he's getting at.

 

 

 

The only problem with this is Josh was not a reach

15 hours ago, BringBackOrton said:

Projects never work out, because QB's that work out shed the project label.  If your QB is still a project midway through year two, he's cooked.

Thats perfect

 

We should def wait till year 2 to start throwing definitions of rookie qbs