How often do "project" quarterbacks work out?

[Straight Hucklebuck]

1 minute ago, John from Riverside said:

The only problem with this is Josh was not a reach

He definitely was a reach. 

 

0 star prospect, JUCO transfer, not All-Mountain team, no elite production in college, no banner/statement wins in college. 

 

Got drafted because he was 6'5" 240 and has a cannon. All scouting reports questioned his accuracy. 

 

He would not have been a first rounder based on production. He was a projection/reach. 

[John from Riverside]

Just now, Straight Hucklebuck said:

He definitely was a reach. 

 

0 star prospect, JUCO transfer, not All-Mountain team, no elite production in college, no banner/statement wins in college. 

 

Got drafted because he was 6'5" 240 and has a cannon. All scouting reports questioned his accuracy. 

 

He would not have been a first rounder based on production. He was a projection/reach. 

Players that were considered at the number 1 pick that get taken at 7 are not reaches....period

[bobblehead]

16 hours ago, Rochesterfan said:

So although this is just another troll thread (great just what we needed) - I will say since every QB drafted since the beginning has not played in the NFL - all QBs are projects and so any that you consider successful by whatever measure you would like fits the answer.

 

In realistic terms - the QB that just became the all time leading passer was a 2nd round project.  The guy in third Farve was a 2nd round project.  There are a bunch of Super Bowl winners and Hall of Famers that were 6th round or later and several UDFA’s including guys that were bagging groceries.

 

Therefore if your question is really about project QB’s - there are a ton of very, ultra successful projects.  If you really mean that JA sucks and this FO should be gone which seems to be your current mission - I saw wait and give it time because many QBs get better after 4 games.

Great response. Thank you.

 

We just don’t know what is going on right now. All I know is it’s the coordinators job to coordinate and modify based on the talent and experience. 

 

As as far as QB projects,  I saw a video of Brady and Brees playing against each other in college- interceptions. Inaccurate passes. All that.  We as fans here don’t know jack when it comes to development, accuracy, footwork, grasp  of playbook. Nothing. And don’t let anyone here tell you they do.  Brees was given up on in SD. Farve was traded early.  Goff looked like a disaster his first year.  Gannon was in his 30’s before he turned it around. Warren Moon had to play in Canada to start.  Sorry but we won’t know anything about our rookie for awhile. 

[DuckyBoys]

I think the guidelines for qbs is changing as far as the draft.  Used to be teams really focused on number of starts in college and success and you got draft gems like Andre Ware, Tim Tebow, Vince Young  Draft stock recently seems to me more beholden to physical skills than just production in college. Tannehill is probably the closest comparison to Allen  His stock jumped for nowhere based on physical tools  Scouts seem to be looking at ability to make NFL throws/durability/mobility  More of a eye ball test than in the past

[Chris66]

1 hour ago, John from Riverside said:

Players that were considered at the number 1 pick that get taken at 7 are not reaches....period

Thats because the nfl is stupid. I still laugh at the gms thate state a qb played in a pro style offense. So freakin what! All the good teams are playing a college style offense.

 

Allen should have been 3rd round tops. He is as much of a project as Ryan Mallet.

[John from Riverside]

Nobody is going to take a patriot fan seriously soooooo

[Logic]

5 minutes ago, Chris66 said:

Thats because the nfl is stupid. I still laugh at the gms thate state a qb played in a pro style offense. So freakin what! All the good teams are playing a college style offense.

 

Allen should have been 3rd round tops. He is as much of a project as Ryan Mallet.

I'll tell you what: If my team had won 5 Lombardis in the past 18 years, the LAST thing I'd be doing is hanging out on a division rival's message board, talking **** and trolling their members. What an absolutely lame and sad thing to do. Go watch some Patriots** film or something and let the adults talk in peace.

[MrEpsYtown]

I think this all depends on what people are defining as a project. People can be #1 overall picks and still be considered a project. 

[mjt328]

2 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Best Way is go team by team and see:

 

AFC East 

1. Patriots - Brady - The NFL didn't know a 6th Round Pick would be the GOAT. Pretty quickly showed he was no project because of his accuracy and ability to choose the open man.

2. Dolphins - Tannehill - Somewhat a project. Converted college WR. Has been an average NFL QB. Does not look like a Super Bowl caliber QB.

3. Jets - Darnold - Blue Chip prospect. 

4. Bills - Allen - Project from a small conference with mediocre college production.

 

AFC North

1. Steelers - Roethlisberger - Project? He dominated the MAC and immediately became the starter in Pittsburgh. Not a project. 

2. Ravens - Flacco - Deleware St, I'd say a project QB. Had the one great Playoff run that resulted in a Super Bowl win.

3. Bengals - Dalton - Not a project. Was a winner in college and has been steady in the NFL.

4. Browns - Mayfield - Not a project. #1 Overall. 

 

AFC South

1. Colts - Luck - Not a project. #1 Overall. 

2. Titans - Mariota - Not a project. #2 Overall. 

3. Jaguars - Bortles - #3 Overall pick, but close to a project? 

4. Texans - Watson - #12 Overall, definitely not a Project. Won a National Title over Alabama, almost won a 2nd over Alabama.

 

AFC West

1. Chargers - Rivers - Not a project. #4 overall in 2004 Class.

2. Raiders - Carr - Huge college numbers, not a project. First Rounder.

3. Chiefs - Mahomes - Project? I don't think so, he was a 10th overall pick, huge college production, massive arm. Biggest question was Air Raid offense to Pro.

4. Broncos - Keenum - Project. Career Backup who had great season last year in Minnesota and is getting his crack at starting full-time.

 

NFC East

1. Giants - Manning - #1 Overall, son of Archie Manning, brother of Peyton Manning. Not a project.

2. Eagles - Wentz - Shaky first season, then exploded onto the scene. Not sure if he was a project coming in, most analysts liked him.

3. Redskins - Smith - #1 Overall, early career disappointment, but has been steady for years now. Not a project. 

4. Cowboys - Prescott - Maybe a project. I always thought in college he was more of a running QB, but took command of the Cowboys quickly. 

 

NFC North

1. Packers - Rodgers - Tedford QB was the biggest knock, but not a project. 

2. Lions - Stafford - Not a project, #1 overall pick from SEC school. 

3. Bears - Turbisky - #3 overall, but only one year in College. Call him a project. 

4. Vikings - Cousins - Mid-Round pick, but a well rounded prospect coming out of school. Not a project QB.

 

NFC South

1. Saints - Brees - First pick of the 2nd Round I believe, a early career disappointment, not a project. 

2. Panthers - Newton - #1 Overall, dominant college career, not a project.

3. Buccaneers - Winston - #1 Overall, but shaky decision making and maturity in college. Call him a project, but was a National Champion in college, so not a project on talent.

4. Falcons - Ryan - Not a project. 

 

NFC West

1. Seahawks - Wilson - Seen as too small by Buddy Nix and other 31 teams. Call him a project. 

2. Rams - Goff - #1 Overall - Not a project. 

3. Cardinals - Rosen - Polished passer, not a project. 

4. 49ers - Garrapolo - Small school prospect, was going to continue sitting in New England. Call him a project. 

 

 

So out of 32 starting QBs, I'd say 9 were projects coming into the league. 

 

Definitely Worked

Wilson (HOFer), Flacco, Wentz

 

Too Early but looks like they can play in the NFL, we could parse this group down again to likely Super Bowl winner or not. 

Winston, Garrapolo, Turbisky, Prescott

 

Probably Not  

Tannehill, Keenum and if you want to include Bortles, although he has been to AFC Title Game and his statistics are not atrocious. 

 

Way too early

Allen, but would defy all scouting logic 

 

 

The problem here is that you are defining "project" by things like overall draft position, how successful they were in college or how quickly they ended up progressing in the NFL after-the-fact.  None of these are particularly applicable.

 

Tim Tebow was drafted in the first round, and was possibly the most successful college QB ever.  Yet most observers (outside of Denver) felt he was a massive project, and needed to re-learn the quarterback position from the ground-up in order to be successful at the pro level.  Many felt he would be better suited to use his athletic skills for another position like tight end.

 

Go back and read the scouting reports on Aaron Rodgers.  Go back and read what Green Bay reporters observed in practice while he was backing up Brett Favre the first 3 seasons of his career.  You can't tell me that he wasn't a project.

 

 

In my opinion, it's all about HOW MUCH a player needs to improve from the time they are drafted in order to become a successful starter in the NFL.  It doesn't matter where they are drafted, how good their stats were in college or even how quickly it happens once they hit the pros. 

 

 

 

 

[RussellDopeland]

2 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Bills - Allen - Project from a small conference with mediocre college production.

 

2 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Packers - Rodgers - Tedford QB was the biggest knock, but not a project. 

Not to be argumentative or anything, but....both Allen and Rodgers were Juco tranfers that started two years in Div 1. The argument that Allen's college production was "mediocre" doesn't ring true when you compare the stat lines for Allen and Rodgers, who was considered to be highly productive at Cal.

 

Rodgers (Cal): 5,469 passing yards, 43 Tds, 13 Ints, Rating 150.27,  336 rushing yards with 8 Tds.

Allen (Wyoming): 5,066 passing yards, 44 Tds, 21 Ints, Rating 137.7, 767 rushing yards with 12 Tds.

 

Furthermore, the notion that Rodgers wasn't a project is belied by the fact that the Packers essentially rebuilt his throwing mechanics from the ground up; and this is well-documented. 

[Chris66]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

I'll tell you what: If my team had won 5 Lombardis in the past 18 years, the LAST thing I'd be doing is hanging out on a division rival's message board, talking **** and trolling their members. What an absolutely lame and sad thing to do. Go watch some Patriots** film or something and let the adults talk in peace.

Get thicker skin. Its not trolling its an opinion. If Allen was coming out just 5 years ago. He never would have had a first round grade. 

[Logic]

16 minutes ago, Chris66 said:

Get thicker skin. Its not trolling its an opinion. If Allen was coming out just 5 years ago. He never would have had a first round grade. 

It's just that I never see you contribute anything worthwhile in terms of football discussion. Ever.

You essentially ONLY ever come here to spew negativity about the Bills.

You've spoken poorly of Allen (multiple times), the Pegulas, the coaching staff.

If your only role is to speak negatively about the Bills, then it IS trolling. What else should I call it? 

[teef]

5 minutes ago, Logic said:

It's just that I never see you contribute anything worthwhile in terms of football discussion. Ever.

You essentially ONLY ever come here to spew negativity about the Bills.

You've spoken poorly of Allen (multiple times), the Pegulas, the coaching staff.

If your only role is to speak negatively about the Bills, then it IS trolling. What else should I call it? 

remember what happend to chris66 on the bbmb?  it was scandalous.  

[Gugny]

4 minutes ago, teef said:

remember what happend to chris66 on the bbmb?  it was scandalous.  

 

Please .... do tell.

[macaroni]

42.7% of the time … worth the risk I guess.

[teef]

5 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

Please .... do tell.

i'm curious to see if chris remembers.  i have a feeling he's a wny pat's fan...the worst kind of all.

[Luka]

The bigger question here is, how often do fans knee jerk over 4 games and then look like fools a couple years down the road? I know Rams fans know what I'm talking about.

[John from Riverside]

55 minutes ago, Chris66 said:

Get thicker skin. Its not trolling its an opinion. If Allen was coming out just 5 years ago. He never would have had a first round grade. 

Seriously you can go pound sand....

28 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

Please .... do tell.

Got my popcorn ready!

[Straight Hucklebuck]

2 hours ago, mjt328 said:

 

The problem here is that you are defining "project" by things like overall draft position, how successful they were in college or how quickly they ended up progressing in the NFL after-the-fact.  None of these are particularly applicable.

 

Tim Tebow was drafted in the first round, and was possibly the most successful college QB ever.  Yet most observers (outside of Denver) felt he was a massive project, and needed to re-learn the quarterback position from the ground-up in order to be successful at the pro level.  Many felt he would be better suited to use his athletic skills for another position like tight end.

 

Go back and read the scouting reports on Aaron Rodgers.  Go back and read what Green Bay reporters observed in practice while he was backing up Brett Favre the first 3 seasons of his career.  You can't tell me that he wasn't a project.

 

 

In my opinion, it's all about HOW MUCH a player needs to improve from the time they are drafted in order to become a successful starter in the NFL.  It doesn't matter where they are drafted, how good their stats were in college or even how quickly it happens once they hit the pros. 

 

 

 

 

Whatever mjt, if you don't like my construct then go out and actually do some work and develop your own system. 

 

 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Every QB is a project, why?? Because no one has yet master the formula on how to identify good nfl QBs based on College QB performance. 

 

 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

Do project quarterbacks work out? I mean you can add any QB drafted after the 3rd round with moderate-great success or QBs from small schools/run oriented college offenses to this list. That would take all night. Are we just talking about top 10 guys?

 

Ryan Tannehill was drafted I think at 12 and he was a converted wide receiver. That's as raw as you can get. Cam Newton was another highly rated guy and a bit of a project. 

 

Edited October 10, 2018 by ChronicAndKnuckles

[Dr.Sack]

Better question what % of 1st round draft picks that are drafted in the top 10 amount to viable starters. I’d say 1 in 3. The numbers certainly drop from there...

[ColoradoBills]

23 hours ago, Klaista2k said:

How often do these young quarterbacks that  are considered "projects" actually pan out?

 

Do they usually bust or is there a lot of examples of guys that have actually worked out?

 

 

 

 

Has anyone satisfactorily answered your questions?

[Logic]

Still waiting on Chris66 to wade back into the ****-pot he stirred up and talk fondly about his memories of BBMB.

[Bangarang]

Can we first define what a project QB is? Isn’t it fair to say 99.99% of QBs drafted are projects in one way or another?

Edited October 11, 2018 by Bangarang

[Trogdor]

On 10/9/2018 at 8:04 PM, LeGOATski said:

I only know about Bills players post 1990 and every one except Kelly was a project, so....100% bust.

 

Your answer is 100% bust.

Even Kelly was a project. He had time to develop in another league and still sucked when he came here. The scheme probably hid a lot of his weaknesses.

2 hours ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

Do project quarterbacks work out? I mean you can add any QB drafted after the 3rd round with moderate-great success or QBs from small schools/run oriented college offenses to this list. That would take all night. Are we just talking about top 10 guys?

 

Ryan Tannehill was drafted I think at 12 and he was a converted wide receiver. That's as raw as you can get. Cam Newton was another highly rated guy and a bit of a project. 

 

Wasn't he a QB converted to WR and then converted back? I was more worried about Moore when they played the Bills.

[C.Biscuit97]

9 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Players that were considered at the number 1 pick that get taken at 7 are not reaches....period

Come on John.  This happens all the time.  The nfl loves tall guys with big arms.  Logan Thomas was talked about as a a 1st round pick before his last year in college.  Jake locker got talked about going 1st overall and was like a 50% passer.  Blaine Gabbert was talked about a 1st overall pick and had 16 tds in a spread offense his last year in college.  These guys get hyped up because of being tall and having good arms.

 

yes, most college qbs won’t make it in the nfl.  The problem is some guys have a way higher bust rate than others and since I’m consistent, it’s what I said about Allen before he was on the Bills.  If fans were more honest, we would be laughing at Allen if the Jets took him.  

 

I would love for him to be the exception to the rule. But based on every offensive personnel and the complete lack of plan this regime has with him, I’m not super optimistic. 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

18 minutes ago, Trogdor said:

Even Kelly was a project. He had time to develop in another league and still sucked when he came here. The scheme probably hid a lot of his weaknesses.

Wasn't he a QB converted to WR and then converted back? I was more worried about Moore when they played the Bills.

 

I'm actually arguing w/ another guy in a different thread about how we should of grabbed Moore over Anderson precisely because of all those beatings he threw the Bills. Tannehill worries me about as much as a common cold, Brady is Ebola.

 

EDIT: You're right. I never knew Tanny started out as a quarterback. I always thought he was converted.

Edited October 11, 2018 by ChronicAndKnuckles

[C.Biscuit97]

18 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

Can we first define what a project QB is? Isn’t it fair to say 99.99% of QBs drafted are projects in one way or another?

Lack of production in college but have a lot of physical tools.  Think a guy like Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Hackenberg, etc.  

 

i

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

2 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Lack of production in college but have a lot of physical tools.  Think a guy like Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Hackenberg, etc.  

 

i

 

Guys with TONS of production in college can also be project QB's in my opinion. Colt Brennan comes to mind.

 

What about QB's that come from the projects. Do they count as project QBs?

Edited October 11, 2018 by ChronicAndKnuckles

[C.Biscuit97]

Just now, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

 

Guys with TONS of production in college can also be projects QB's in my opinion. Colt Brennan comes to mind.

Interesting point.  But I think the problem with guys like Brennan is they lacked physical skills and most likely peaked in college.  It’s why I hated Manziel.  He simply didn’t have the physical skills.  

 

Imo, super college production without physical skills guarantees nothing.  Good production plus physical skills equals a high draft pick. And lack of production plus physical skills equals prospect qb, which rarely succeed on the next level.

5 hours ago, Luka said:

The bigger question here is, how often do fans knee jerk over 4 games and then look like fools a couple years down the road? I know Rams fans know what I'm talking about.

Of course this can happen and I think every Bills fans who doubts Allen would be very happy about this.  I’d also point out that Goff had like 50 tds in a power 5 conference and received possibly the best offensive coach in the nfl.  Allen wasn’t dominatin the MWC and had Brian Daboll, who has a terrible OC record in the nfl.

 

and the counter to your point is EJ Manuel after his first 4 games, which are completely superior to Allen.  And I defended EJ!  But I pray you are right.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

1 minute ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Interesting point.  But I think the problem with guys like Brennan is they lacked physical skills and most likely peaked in college.  It’s why I hated Manziel.  He simply didn’t have the physical skills.  

 

Imo, super college production without physical skills guarantees nothing.  Good production plus physical skills equals a high draft pick. And lack of production plus physical skills equals prospect qb, which rarely succeed on the next level.

 

What the heck happened w/ Allen? He fits the "lack of production + physical skills" mold and was still unanimously viewed as a top 5 pick unlike a ton of QB's cut from the same cloth and yet they were all graded much lower. Bad pocket presence in college, accuracy was not good. Of course I support him 100% , but I've always wondered what made him any different than EJ Manuel in the eyes of the experts. 

[C.Biscuit97]

2 hours ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

Do project quarterbacks work out? I mean you can add any QB drafted after the 3rd round with moderate-great success or QBs from small schools/run oriented college offenses to this list. That would take all night. Are we just talking about top 10 guys?

 

Ryan Tannehill was drafted I think at 12 and he was a converted wide receiver. That's as raw as you can get. Cam Newton was another highly rated guy and a bit of a project. 

 

Cam Newton won a JUCO national championship, a heisman in the Sec, and a national championship.  There were “experts” like Mayock who had Blaine Gabbert ranked over him but it looks completely stupid looking back.  He has an amazing resume to go with he physical skills.

3 minutes ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

 

What the heck happened w/ Allen? He fits the "lack of production + physical skills" mold and was still unanimously viewed as a top 5 pick unlike a ton of QB's cut from the same cloth and yet they were all graded much lower. Bad pocket presence in college, accuracy was not good. Of course I support him 100% , but I've always wondered what made him any different than EJ Manuel in the eyes of the experts. 

Good thoughts.  If you look back at the scouting reports/ production/ combine numbers on Bortles and Manuel, they look exactly the same.  Yet one was a top 5 pick and one was a huge reach.  

 

I think guys guys get hype because they look like they should be good.  Hackenberg has no business being a 2nd round pick.  He sucked his last 2 years in college.  People tried to blame His coach, yet they became a powerhouse after he left.  I’ve seen a lot of talk about how bad Wyoming was.  They had a top 10 scoring defense.  If you are an elite prospect, you should have periods of dominating.  Romo and Jimmy G went to the same school and they dominated. Wentz won titles.  Matt Ryan made Boston College a good program.  

 

Allen has everything you want.  But the question is can he consistently get there?  That’s what separates the good ones to the fringe nfl qbs.

[Bangarang]

18 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Lack of production in college but have a lot of physical tools.  Think a guy like Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Hackenberg, etc.  

 

i

 

Sounds like a nice way of saying they’re just physical specimens that suck at actually playing quarterback.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

10 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Cam Newton won a JUCO national championship, a heisman in the Sec, and a national championship.  There were “experts” like Mayock who had Blaine Gabbert ranked over him but it looks completely stupid looking back.  He has an amazing resume to go with he physical skills.

 

The offense alone that Cam played at Auburn was a one read, run first type that made him a project though. Would he be able to translate to pro style? His measurables and mechanics were always top notch and never questioned from what I can remember. Cam has been a winner everywhere

Edited October 11, 2018 by ChronicAndKnuckles

[C.Biscuit97]

1 minute ago, Bangarang said:

 

Sounds like a nice way of saying they’re just physical specimens that suck at actually playing quarterback.

I think the main problem is they aren’t consistent.  They can threw the most amazing pass one play and then bounce a 5 yard pass the next play.  What makes Brees, Rodgers, and Brady so great is they are so consistent.

 

imo, Mahomes would have been ok last year as a rookie because KC has a good offense and Reid.  But he is thriving this year because he got to learn from Smith/ Reid and work on his mechanics for a year.  If Josh Allen had Reid and had to sit for a year, I’d feel much better about his prospects.  As much as I didn’t like the pick, I feel we could have put him in a better position to succeed.  This is like the EJ plan all over again, which is so frustrating.  Consistency and confidence make great qbs and we could be killing that with him.

3 minutes ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

 

The offense alone that Cam played at Auburn was a one read, run first type that made him a project though. Would he be able to translate to pro style? His measurables and mechanics were always top notch and never questioned from what I can remember. Cam has been a winner everywhere

That’s fair.  I just remember watching him and thinking I was seeing a nfl star.  He was like Vince Young but he didn’t throw like a girl.

 

and of course, Newton came in and set passing records as a rookie.

[Bangarang]

4 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I think the main problem is they aren’t consistent.  They can threw the most amazing pass one play and then bounce a 5 yard pass the next play.  What makes Brees, Rodgers, and Brady so great is they are so consistent.

 

imo, Mahomes would have been ok last year as a rookie because KC has a good offense and Reid.  But he is thriving this year because he got to learn from Smith/ Reid and work on his mechanics for a year.  If Josh Allen had Reid and had to sit for a year, I’d feel much better about his prospects.  As much as I didn’t like the pick, I feel we could have put him in a better position to succeed.  This is like the EJ plan all over again, which is so frustrating.  Consistency and confidence make great qbs and we could be killing that with him.

 

I agree with the point about consistency and also agree that we are not putting Allen in a position to be successful. 

Edited October 11, 2018 by Bangarang

[DuckyBoys]

EJ was mentally weak  If you watched FSU games you would have seen warning signs.  Once Marrone lost faith in him he just lost even more confidence and played even worse.  I dont think Allen is cut from the same cloth but we'll. 

[C.Biscuit97]

1 minute ago, Bangarang said:

 

I agree with the point about consistency and also agree that we are not putting Allen in a position to be successful. 

Yeah, it sucks.  I didn’t want Allen but I thought they were not going to force him on the field.  But they are doing that and it’s sucks to watch.  

Just now, DuckyBoys said:

EJ was mentally weak  If you watched FSU games you would have seen warning signs.  Once Marrone lost faith in him he just lost even more confidence and played even worse.  I dont think Allen is cut from the same cloth but we'll. 

EJ went through his last year in college with his mom battling cancer.  I get your point but Allen didn’t look that confident in the Titans or Packers games.  

[C.Biscuit97]

1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

You kidding me? 

 

Id take Russell Wilson and dump Allen right now. 

Haha, I didn’t see this post.  Did he say that Wilson and Newton weren’t worth their money? ?. Are people serious with this stuff?

 

and I know he gets ? on but as Bills fans, we would kill to have Allen have Dalton’s career.  It’s hilarious how people love putting him down when he has made the playoffs every year of his career but two years.  I’d be thrilled if Allen has a career like Dalton.