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People should be worried about our Depth


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One thing that I consistently notice each off season is the fan predictions always leave out a very glaring issue - players get injured. 

By now, we should all know how quickly 1 key injury can derail the outcome of games, let alone several piling up over the course of the year. Sometimes a roster looks great on paper, but dig a little deeper and see who's sitting behind who, and how that will impact the team in the very likely case a player goes down.

Last year we had injuries to Jordan Matthews, Charles Clay, Tyrod Taylor, Zay Jones, Cordy Glenn, Shaq Lawson, Kelvin Benjamin, Nate Peterman,  Tre White, John Miller, Brandon Tate, Nick O'Leary, and many more. 

Years prior, we had key people hurt for extended periods of games (which include many who I already named) like Marcell Dareus, LeSean McCoy, Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, Marquis Goodwin, Ronald Darby, Stephon Gilmore, Eric Wood, Cyrus Kouandjio, Percy Harvin (ha), Aaron Williams, Nigel Bradham, Manny Lawson, etc.

Every team has injuries, but many teams are setup far better than the Bills when it comes to replacing those guys & the production they bring.

Anyone who says they have "confidence" in our WR corp as it stands is either lying, or just crazy. Same goes for the O-line... Neither unit was good last year, but at least the line had some positive attributes. In 2018, we lost all 3 of our best players in Glenn, Incognito and Wood. We're left with (potential backups in parenthesis) -

LT - Dion Dawkins (Conor McDermott)
LG - Ryan Groy (Wyatt Teller) 

C - Russell Bodine  or Adam Redmond

RG - John Miller (Vlad Duccasse)

RT - Jordan Mills (Marshall Newhouse)

 

It's already unstable as it is, but with the depth we have, we're are so paper thin that a single injury would essentially be a death sentence to whoever is QB. And our run game? We significantly regressed in 2017, and likely will be inferior to that in 2018.

The WR group we have is again, even worse than last season. We've got -

WR1 - Kelvin Benjamin
WR2 - Jeremy Kerley?  I mean, he's got the highest average yards per season at 388.......... None of the guys on our roster have been #2 guys in the league

WR3 - Andre Holmes or Zay Jones? They've got the next highest average after Rod Streater, with 316 yards per season played, so....yay?

Other potential stars:

 

-Quan Bray, 3 years in the league with a total of 75 yards

-Kaelin Clay, an even better prospect, as he has 85 total yards in 2 seasons.

-Malachi Dupre, 1 year in the league, crowning achievement was being promoted to the active roster for week 17's game against the Dolphins. Didn't play a down.
-Robert Foster, rookie, 4 seasons at Alabama averaging 97 yards a year.

-Brandon Reilly, 1 year on the Bills practice squad, promoted to active roster for final 4 games, didn't play a down.

-Rod Streater, had 2 decent years in 2012 & 2013, has done less than nothing since. 
 

Then we've got the other rookies, Ray-Ray McCloud, Cam Phillips, and Austin Proehl...Obviously most of these guys won't even make the roster, but the ones that do offer limited skillsets, no experience, or a combination of both. If Benjamin goes down, we are beyond screwed. And it should be noted that Benjamin has never started all 16 games in his career...so that's almost a certainty.

And beyond the obvious, here's some other thin positions:

 

QB - AJ McCarron, Josh Allen & Nathan Peterman: don't need to get too deep here, this one's obvious. A combined 6 starts between them, 4 coming from McCarron. Peterman had the record INT game and the snow game for the other 2. Allen was always touted as the "potential" guy who's stock was based solely on looks, arm strength and physicality, and not on-field play. By everyone's account, the most raw QB in the 1st round whose promise is based on if he can be developed properly. Needless to say playing with this line & this WR corps would do him no favors, so expectation is for him to sit, learn & start in the future. 


RB - LeSean McCoy: although he's generally reliable for most of the season, he's only started all 16 games 3 times in 9 years, including 1 season with the Bills (last year). He's easily our best player, but production has declined and will be 30 heading into the 2018 season. Behind him we have the also 30 Chris Ivory, who's better than Tolbert, but that's not saying much. Also has a history with injuries.

CB - Tre White & Vontae Davis: even if just one goes down, that leaves us with next to no options. We have Breon Borders, Ryan Carter, Phillip Gaines, Taron Johnson, Levi Wallace, and Lafayette Pitts...a bunch of late round/undrafted rookies & practice squad fodder. Davis is also 30 & coming off an injury, so it'd be a miracle if our starting duo plays most of the season.

 

And yes, there are other soft spots as well, but those spots are either covered better up front, or have more experience backing them. Every team has "needs" or positions they're weak in, but for a team many on this board are confident can make the playoffs, I can't see another playoff contending roster with nearly as many holes.

People need to temper their expectations and remember to factor in injuries and depth. It's always a battle of attrition, but there are certainly teams that have positioned themselves worse than others in that regard. I'm hopeful Allen will become what the Bills want him to become, but when factoring in injuries & our limited depth, this year will likely only do him a disservice if he's the starter.



 

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Why does it seem like injuries pile up at one position? It’s one thing to lose a WR, it’s something else to lose several. Remember signing guys off the astreet to play RB a couple seasons ago? We don’t want to be signing guys off the street to play WR.....our starters are challenging enough. 

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9 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

One thing that I consistently notice each off season is the fan predictions always leave out a very glaring issue - players get injured. 

By now, we should all know how quickly 1 key injury can derail the outcome of games, let alone several piling up over the course of the year. Sometimes a roster looks great on paper, but dig a little deeper and see who's sitting behind who, and how that will impact the team in the very likely case a player goes down.

Last year we had injuries to Jordan Matthews, Charles Clay, Tyrod Taylor, Zay Jones, Cordy Glenn, Shaq Lawson, Kelvin Benjamin, Nate Peterman,  Tre White, John Miller, Brandon Tate, Nick O'Leary, and many more. 

Years prior, we had key people hurt for extended periods of games (which include many who I already named) like Marcell Dareus, LeSean McCoy, Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, Marquis Goodwin, Ronald Darby, Stephon Gilmore, Eric Wood, Cyrus Kouandjio, Percy Harvin (ha), Aaron Williams, Nigel Bradham, Manny Lawson, etc.

Every team has injuries, but many teams are setup far better than the Bills when it comes to replacing those guys & the production they bring.

Anyone who says they have "confidence" in our WR corp as it stands is either lying, or just crazy. Same goes for the O-line... Neither unit was good last year, but at least the line had some positive attributes. In 2018, we lost all 3 of our best players in Glenn, Incognito and Wood. We're left with (potential backups in parenthesis) -

LT - Dion Dawkins (Conor McDermott)
LG - Ryan Groy (Wyatt Teller) 

C - Russell Bodine  or Adam Redmond

RG - John Miller (Vlad Duccasse)

RT - Jordan Mills (Marshall Newhouse)

 

It's already unstable as it is, but with the depth we have, we're are so paper thin that a single injury would essentially be a death sentence to whoever is QB. And our run game? We significantly regressed in 2017, and likely will be inferior to that in 2018.

The WR group we have is again, even worse than last season. We've got -

WR1 - Kelvin Benjamin
WR2 - Jeremy Kerley?  I mean, he's got the highest average yards per season at 388.......... None of the guys on our roster have been #2 guys in the league

WR3 - Andre Holmes or Zay Jones? They've got the next highest average after Rod Streater, with 316 yards per season played, so....yay?

Other potential stars:

 

-Quan Bray, 3 years in the league with a total of 75 yards

-Kaelin Clay, an even better prospect, as he has 85 total yards in 2 seasons.

-Malachi Dupre, 1 year in the league, crowning achievement was being promoted to the active roster for week 17's game against the Dolphins. Didn't play a down.
-Robert Foster, rookie, 4 seasons at Alabama averaging 97 yards a year.

-Brandon Reilly, 1 year on the Bills practice squad, promoted to active roster for final 4 games, didn't play a down.

-Rod Streater, had 2 decent years in 2012 & 2013, has done less than nothing since. 
 

Then we've got the other rookies, Ray-Ray McCloud, Cam Phillips, and Austin Proehl...Obviously most of these guys won't even make the roster, but the ones that do offer limited skillsets, no experience, or a combination of both. If Benjamin goes down, we are beyond screwed. And it should be noted that Benjamin has never started all 16 games in his career...so that's almost a certainty.

And beyond the obvious, here's some other thin positions:

 

QB - AJ McCarron, Josh Allen & Nathan Peterman: don't need to get too deep here, this one's obvious. A combined 6 starts between them, 4 coming from McCarron. Peterman had the record INT game and the snow game for the other 2. Allen was always touted as the "potential" guy who's stock was based solely on looks, arm strength and physicality, and not on-field play. By everyone's account, the most raw QB in the 1st round whose promise is based on if he can be developed properly. Needless to say playing with this line & this WR corps would do him no favors, so expectation is for him to sit, learn & start in the future. 


RB - LeSean McCoy: although he's generally reliable for most of the season, he's only started all 16 games 3 times in 9 years, including 1 season with the Bills (last year). He's easily our best player, but production has declined and will be 30 heading into the 2018 season. Behind him we have the also 30 Chris Ivory, who's better than Tolbert, but that's not saying much. Also has a history with injuries.

CB - Tre White & Vontae Davis: even if just one goes down, that leaves us with next to no options. We have Breon Borders, Ryan Carter, Phillip Gaines, Taron Johnson, Levi Wallace, and Lafayette Pitts...a bunch of late round/undrafted rookies & practice squad fodder. Davis is also 30 & coming off an injury, so it'd be a miracle if our starting duo plays most of the season.

 

And yes, there are other soft spots as well, but those spots are either covered better up front, or have more experience backing them. Every team has "needs" or positions they're weak in, but for a team many on this board are confident can make the playoffs, I can't see another playoff contending roster with nearly as many holes.

People need to temper their expectations and remember to factor in injuries and depth. It's always a battle of attrition, but there are certainly teams that have positioned themselves worse than others in that regard. I'm hopeful Allen will become what the Bills want him to become, but when factoring in injuries & our limited depth, this year will likely only do him a disservice if he's the starter.



 

It does seem like we always had problems with depth on this team......just making a comment on the running back position though.....we are currently in a much better place now compared to last season with our "outstanding" # 2 in big mike tolbert (sarcasm of course) that we had last season........I think the addition of chris ivory will be welcomed addition plus hopefully cadet will continue to progress (hopefully he's fully recuperated from the injury that is)......Not too much worried about our defence compared to our O-line and again lack of WR's.......

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6 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I would imagine if you went on other teams' sites their fans are worried about depth too.

 

Well, they’re just a bunch of whiners! We have legit worries!   ?

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23 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

Anyone who says they have "confidence" in our WR corp as it stands is either lying, or just crazy. Same goes for the O-line... Neither unit was good last year, but at least the line had some positive attributes. In 2018, we lost all 3 of our best players in Glenn, Incognito and Wood. We're left with (potential backups in parenthesis) -

 

Glenn was NOT one of our best players and if you believe so you are (quoting you) "either lying, or just crazy."

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42 minutes ago, JPP said:

It does seem like we always had problems with depth on this team......just making a comment on the running back position though.....we are currently in a much better place now compared to last season with our "outstanding" # 2 in big mike tolbert (sarcasm of course) that we had last season........I think the addition of chris ivory will be welcomed addition plus hopefully cadet will continue to progress (hopefully he's fully recuperated from the injury that is)......Not too much worried about our defence compared to our O-line and again lack of WR's.......

 

Not always.  The Comeback was spearheaded by backups.  ?

 

When you're a bad team, you have a hard enough time filling the starting spot with quality players.  Very rarely does a team fill in the backups until their starting 22 are solid.  At the moment the Bills are...well...not solid.  Too many holes still in offense starter spots to worry about backups.  Now, if Buffalo can stabalize their starters in the next year or two, expect the staff to start padding the roster with quality backups.  Until then, yeah, we're gonna have very shaky depth.

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50 minutes ago, The Red King said:

 

Not always.  The Comeback was spearheaded by backups.  ?

 

When you're a bad team, you have a hard enough time filling the starting spot with quality players.  Very rarely does a team fill in the backups until their starting 22 are solid.  At the moment the Bills are...well...not solid.  Too many holes still in offense starter spots to worry about backups.  Now, if Buffalo can stabalize their starters in the next year or two, expect the staff to start padding the roster with quality backups.  Until then, yeah, we're gonna have very shaky depth.

I do agree....my main concern or well i think the biggest concern is the offence.....the line was pretty woeful for the most part of the season but did seem to come together very late in the season...can they build on this with the guys we got now?  The backfield im more confident now than what we had last season however since being predominately a running offence our chances hinges on if these guys on the line can further improve....it does hurt that incognito is gone.....im just hopeful that we dont regress again on the offence.....got a new QB at the helm whomever it maybe....we may essentially improve on the passing game from what Taylor provided but if the line regresses so will the offence on a whole.....time will tell i suppose....

 

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2 hours ago, Robert James said:

Given the amount of concern people express about the likely starting line-up, I think you can be confident there is no shortage of people being concerned about the bench.

 

you cannot be overly cautious in these matters 

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Your premise is that there are a number of credible back-ups that can be simply put in the starting line-up.  That is just not the case almost anywhere in the NFL.  What was the back-up plan for Manning, Luck, Rodgers, and now Brady? How about for Odell Beckham, AJ Green, or Julio Jones.  There just aren't that many great players in the NFL and there are not enough roster spots/cap space to keep veteran back-ups.  

The truth is next man up is near total BS.  For every Dawkins or Groy, that can step in and do a good job, there are 10 or 15 other positions that simply have no good option.  

The concern for lack of depth should be very real.  The issue is there is nothing they nor any other team can do about it.  All they can do is hope for the best, hope injuries don;t decimate one position group, and key players miss minimal time.  

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Can't fill all needs in one offseason.  Defense is obviously a priority for McDermott as well as the offensive line, which were addressed in the draft.  I suspect McD and staff will see what they have in the offensive skill positions this season and fill those holes next offseason.  I'm thinking the Oline may not be as bad as some think, especially if they go back to a power blocking scheme which should cater more toward a running offense.  Quality depth should happen once starting schemes and players are solidified, and is the downside of changing the coaching staff and philosophies as much as the Bills have these past many years.

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Why would I worry about depth for this coming season? Are you expecting them to compete for the Super Bowl or something?

 

I want (and expect them) to do as well as last season but I don't consider them contenders so I'll worry about player development, and worry about depth next year.

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Agreed that we are weak on depth.

 

I just am not worried about wins next season. We're not likely to be good enough to do serious damage anyway. So depth isn't a big concern for me.

 

Going into the second year of a new regime you're very likely to have depth problems. They shouldn't be unexpected. So I agree with your perception of this roster, but I'm not worried about it at this point and I find it very predictable.

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4 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

I would imagine if you went on other teams' sites their fans are worried about depth too.

 

 

Teams with good GMs and a regime that's been in place for a while tend not to have depth problems, But yeah, the rest of the league does.

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5 hours ago, JPP said:

I do agree....my main concern or well i think the biggest concern is the offence.....the line was pretty woeful for the most part of the season but did seem to come together very late in the season...can they build on this with the guys we got now?  The backfield im more confident now than what we had last season however since being predominately a running offence our chances hinges on if these guys on the line can further improve....it does hurt that incognito is gone.....im just hopeful that we dont regress again on the offence.....got a new QB at the helm whomever it maybe....we may essentially improve on the passing game from what Taylor provided but if the line regresses so will the offence on a whole.....time will tell i suppose....

 

 

It’ll be interesting to see how the passing game is. Tyrod made up for some O-line deficiencies with his scrambling ability but he also held onto the ball too long at times. He also didn’t make turnovers but he didn’t have many high risk throws.

 

One thing I liked that I saw with Peterman last season in preseason and his limited regular season playing time was his making quick decisions and getting the ball out.

 

Whoever plays QB may throw more INTs than Tyrod did, but the passing game could be more of a threat.

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Name one team that has quality depth throughout the entire roster. There isn't one. Every team has key players that they can't be as successful without. Even the fabled Patriots. Remember when we beat them at home a few years ago? Because Marsha and JG were suspended/injured. The 3rd string qb wasn't good enough even with BB coaching to beat the Bills. Most teams don't have solid depth throughout because there is a shortage of starting quality players in the league. Most teams have players starting that have no business being first string nfl players, but they are starting because there just aren't that many people on this planet capable of doing the job. The people that are good enough are usually starting, or are burried on a depth chart until someone goes down or coaching sees they are ready (think Milano). I get what you're saying, but if you want 53 starting caliber players on this roster, you will never be happy. 

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1 hour ago, ColdFront_USAF said:

Name one team that has quality depth throughout the entire roster. There isn't one. Every team has key players that they can't be as successful without. Even the fabled Patriots. Remember when we beat them at home a few years ago? Because Marsha and JG were suspended/injured. The 3rd string qb wasn't good enough even with BB coaching to beat the Bills. Most teams don't have solid depth throughout because there is a shortage of starting quality players in the league. Most teams have players starting that have no business being first string nfl players, but they are starting because there just aren't that many people on this planet capable of doing the job. The people that are good enough are usually starting, or are burried on a depth chart until someone goes down or coaching sees they are ready (think Milano). I get what you're saying, but if you want 53 starting caliber players on this roster, you will never be happy. 

 

Of course that is true.  But some teams have more depth than others... and there are teams with depth in certain positions that is very good. It isn't a knock on McDermott and Beane to say the roster lacks depth... they are into year 2 of what is intended to be a pretty full scale transformation of the roster.  There are still holes in starting spots and in backup spots - as you would expect.  

 

The deepest Bills roster in my memory was the 2014 team, but that was after 4 or 5 seasons of relative continuity in the front office with Nix and then Whaley aiming at the same overriding objective.  Sadly we wasted that roster on a totally inadequate Head Coach.  McDermott in charge of that roster would have won 11 or 12 games.  Let me just remind you all as one example of our 5 receivers on that roster:

 

- Watkins

- Woods

- Harvin

- Goodwin

- Hogan 

 

That is pretty stacked. One of those guys has retired but the other 4 are all now established starters on their teams - it was so good we were able to cut Deonte Thompson at the end of camp - he was our leading wide receiver last season!!  The d-line had considerable depth too, we had Gillislee and Karlos backing up McCoy... it was just a much deeper group.  

 

I think check back in a year's time and you will start to see this roster taking something more like its long term shape.  For this year we are going to have t be coached up to the maximum of our abilities to have a chance at a winning record.  They did it last year, it would be an even more terrific achievement to repeat it.  My desire is they come out of 2018 with positive signs from Josh Allen and with at least one player found on the o-line (maybe McDermott, maybe Bodine, maybe Teller, maybe Groy) and one player found at WR (from the two draft picks, Reilly etc). I expect the D to be pretty solid and somewhere between 8-15 in the league.  

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7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Of course that is true.  But some teams have more depth than others... and there are teams with depth in certain positions that is very good. It isn't a knock on McDermott and Beane to say the roster lacks depth... they are into year 2 of what is intended to be a pretty full scale transformation of the roster.  There are still holes in starting spots and in backup spots - as you would expect.  

 

The deepest Bills roster in my memory was the 2014 team, but that was after 4 or 5 seasons of relative continuity in the front office with Nix and then Whaley aiming at the same overriding objective.  Sadly we wasted that roster on a totally inadequate Head Coach.  McDermott in charge of that roster would have won 11 or 12 games.  Let me just remind you all as one example of our 5 receivers on that roster:

 

- Watkins

- Woods

- Harvin

- Goodwin

- Hogan 

 

That is pretty stacked. One of those guys has retied but the other 4 are all now established starters on their teams - it was so good we were able to cut Deonte Thompson at the end of camp - he was our leading wide receiver last season!!  The d-line had considerable depth too, we had Gillislee and Karlos backing up McCoy... it was just a much deeper group.  

 

I think check back in a year's time and you will start to see this roster taking something more like its long term shape.  For this year we are going to have t be coached up to the maximum of our abilities to have a chance at a winning record.  They did it last year, it would be an even more terrific achievement to repeat it.  My desire is they come out of 2018 with positive signs from Josh Allen and with at least one player found on the o-line (maybe McDermott, maybe Bodine, maybe Teller, maybe Groy) and one player found at WR (from the two draft picks, Reilly etc). I expect the D to be pretty solid and somewhere between 8-15 in the league.  

 

Most definately. I agree with what you said about depth being stronger in previous years. I think the thing to focus on is that, like you said, it's year 2 of this rebuild. I fully expect the depth to be handled with more continuity, once they get the starters filled out with their hand picked guys that fit the process. I'm looking forward to it. 

 

I'm with you on my expectations of this year as well. At this point I wouldn't be shocked if we win 2 games or 10. I just want to see momentum. Signs that our 7th overall pick quarterback can be the answer, even if he isn't Aaron Rodgers 2.0 this year. Signs that the other high picks can be reliable starters in the future, and that a few of our late round picks can step up to fill the gaps. 

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1 minute ago, ColdFront_USAF said:

 

Most definately. I agree with what you said about depth being stronger in previous years. I think the thing to focus on is that, like you said, it's year 2 of this rebuild. I fully expect the depth to be handled with more continuity, once they get the starters filled out with their hand picked guys that fit the process. I'm looking forward to it. 

 

I'm with you on my expectations of this year as well. At this point I wouldn't be shocked if we win 2 games or 10. I just want to see momentum. Signs that our 7th overall pick quarterback can be the answer, even if he isn't Aaron Rodgers 2.0 this year. Signs that the other high picks can be reliable starters in the future, and that a few of our late round picks can step up to fill the gaps. 

 

I think what is interesting - and others have commented on it as well - is that they did not say "we are going to tear down and just go with youth and then wait" which is more I think what the Jags did a few years ago and the Raiders did to an extent as well. The Bills said we are going to use to veteran hole patchers to get us to the point our roster is built the way we want it and we will use those guys to build a more business like and professional culture.  That probably elongates getting to your end goal by a year or so but it also allows you to remain somewhat competitive in the meantime - especially if those guys are well prepared and well coached and for the most part McDermott's Bills have been.  

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