Start Allen from Day 1/ QB competition

[NastyNateSoldiers]

6 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

Making the Case for Josh Allen to Start for Bills in Week 1

On the most recent BillsWire podcast, I threw out the idea of Josh Allen starting Week 1, rebutting the notion that Allen is a project prospect.

 

Without having thrown a single pass in a Buffalo Bills’ uniform yet, the idea of starting Allen in Baltimore Sept. 9 is a risky proposition for a lot of people. However, let’s entertain the idea anyway because it might not seem as far-fetched as you think.

 

Most believe free agent acquisition A.J. McCarron is the logical guy to open up the season as the starter. Conservative and realistic outsiders say Allen should sit—at least to start.

 

Throwing the rookie signal caller on the field too early is an understandable fear for fans, considering coach Sean McDermott unconventionally benched Tyrod Taylor midway through the 2017 season in favor of rookie backup, Nathan Peterman. We all know how that went.

Allen should start when he at least has 

 

#1- ability to read the defense and know how to attack said defense.  

#2- A great understanding of our offensive system to a pt where its 2nd nature to him. 

#3 - Has learned proper mechanics 

 

Allen at least has to have the learning part of the mental side of the game before he gets on the field.  If not we take a risk of him falling behind in his development. These things take time to learn and fully digest mentally . I think by week 8 he should be ready to play and if our record is bad 2-6 or 3-5 he should get his chance. 

[transplantbillsfan]

29 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

 

I suspect AJ  is looking at this as an opportunity to show what he can really do.

 

Do you suspect he has much of a chance showing he's much better than Allen, if at all?

[Aussie Joe]

5 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Do you suspect he has much of a chance showing he's much better than Allen, if at all?

 

He might be in 2018...

 

 

[mannc]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Fair enough.

 

Then why do pundits think it does?  Any ideas?

As I said, the theory seems to have some superficial logical appeal—like saying officiating would be better if the refs were full-time employees of the NFL—but there’s little or no evidence to back it up.  It’s lazy thinking, IMO.  For example, EJ Manuel is often held up as an example of a guy who was crippled by starting too soon, but does anyone really think that’s why he wasn’t a successsful NFL qb?  Hell, he played in four bowl games at FSU.  

[Doc Brown]

6 hours ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I believe Allen starting would be best for his own development, but I'm starting to think it will be week 5, not week 1.

This would be my best guess.  I'm usually one to say throw them into the fire as making mistakes is the best way to learn, but I also don't want this to happen...

 

...with games in Baltimore, Green Bay, and Minnesota along with a home game against Nathan Peterman's favorite team in the Chargers.  I want to see how our offensive line performs as I'm much more willing to sacrifice McCarron or Peterman than Allen.  

 

Allen would have to perform well beyond expectations in the preseason/training camp in order to get the nod week 1.

 

 

[#34fan]

7 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

Making the Case for Josh Allen to Start for Bills in Week 1

On the most recent BillsWire podcast, I threw out the idea of Josh Allen starting Week 1, rebutting the notion that Allen is a project prospect.

 

Without having thrown a single pass in a Buffalo Bills’ uniform yet, the idea of starting Allen in Baltimore Sept. 9 is a risky proposition for a lot of people. However, let’s entertain the idea anyway because it might not seem as far-fetched as you think.

 

Most believe free agent acquisition A.J. McCarron is the logical guy to open up the season as the starter. Conservative and realistic outsiders say Allen should sit—at least to start.

 

Throwing the rookie signal caller on the field too early is an understandable fear for fans, considering coach Sean McDermott unconventionally benched Tyrod Taylor midway through the 2017 season in favor of rookie backup, Nathan Peterman. We all know how that went.

 

Good article and Podcast, 26  -Even if I do disagree with some of your takes.

 

McBeane had no idea how bad a half of football could be until Peterman came out against the Chargers... Peterman had good mechanics, said all the right things, and danced like a motherf__er when it came to the whiteboard.

Yet, when the curtains came up, -he fizzled.

IMO there's a good case for making Josh Allen the starter TODAY.  if someone really wanted to.

Whatever Peterman, and McCarron are is dwarfed by the potential of Allen's upside.

What I question is whether McBeane understands that they too will be under center with Josh on day one.

Everything he does will be a reflection of them, and their beloved process. -All the more reason to make damn sure he's ready.

 

[Thurman#1]

8 hours ago, No Place To Hyde said:

Everyone has an opinion on if he should start or sit. Unfortunately, none of us know what's TRULY in his best interest and would aide his development the best.

 

For every case of "Yea well Rodgers sat and turned out well" I can throw a "Yea well Russell Wilson never sat".

 

What it simply comes down to in my opinion is...what way does Josh Allen learn the best? Is he the type of learner that can watch others, ask questions and absorb it all in? Is he the kind of,guy that has to feel the moment, get his hands in the dough so to speak and figure it out that way? 

 

That said, my opinion is this. We are a run first team (no matter who is QB) that should have a solid defense. Whoever is the QB to start the season is going to be masked to some extent. If he is the kind of guy that can learn by doing, let him do it. 

 

 

 

Yeah, but Russell Wilson was considered NFL-ready from minute one.  It's correct that guys like that don't need to sit.

 

But that's the opposite of what Allen is considered. He's a guy who needs development. Yeah, he's done some of that with Jordan Palmer. But he's no Russell Wilson, who was considered mentally ready but questionable whether he'd ever be tall enough. That ain't Allen.

 

And yeah, Bills fans have changed their mind on how ready he is. But deciding something is true because you want it to be true is a path to be wrong nearly every time. Find, say, three pre-draft evaluations that say he's NFL-ready. Pre-draft, back from when Bills Nation wasn't desperate to see him start as soon as possible.

 

Four quick ones that suggest sitting:  Mike Mayock, Peter King, Dane Brugler, Jordan Palmer said he'd benefit from a year to sit. And I could find more, easily. Allen's OC at Wyoming, Brent Vigen. 

 

"I think he needs to be put in a situation where they're willing to coach him," Vigen said. "Because there's still room for growth as far as his understanding and how to apply it. I think, obviously, a situation where he could sit and learn, that would be the best for him. But if he is forced into it, what are the pieces around you? What's the defense like? What pressures are put on you to score points? All those things come into play."

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/23244329/josh-allen-wyoming-cowboys-ultimate-boom-bust-2018-nfl-draft-prospect

[Thurman#1]

5 hours ago, Domdab99 said:

Allen is not raw. He's ready to play. Yeah, he's going to have some rocky moments and he needs to work on some things...but there is no way Allen will not start the majority of the games this season. Unless he's a bust and he doesn't win the job.

 

Think of it this way: how would you feel about Josh Allen, our No. 1 pick who we traded up for, if he can't beat out AJ Freakin' McCarron and Nate "5 picks in a half" Peterman for the starting job in camp? 

 

 

By camp of, say, his third year? I would feel absolutely terrible.

 

In his first camp? Absolutely fine. No problem at all. It's what to expect.

 

In fact, it's what you expected and rabidly told us for months was true, right? Until he was drafted by Buffalo and so the rose-colored glasses came out in like a day and a half.

 

And using the word bust in a player's first year is flat-out ridiculous. By that standard, Brees is a bust.

[NastyNateSoldiers]

4 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Oh please... I think McCarron is probably smart enough to realize whatever time he gets under center during the regular season is borrowed time.

 

Seriously... it's a new NFL.. rookie QBs just generally don't sit unless they're extremely raw... and Allen isn't raw in the way Mahomes was, who never really NFL experience playing in an Air Raid offense in College.

 

What exactly about him is raw?

He's raw in the sense of playing against NFL speed and defensive systems that he's never seen before at Wyoming.  It's one thing to be great on the whiteboard and another to be great when the real bullets start flying.  This is where the studying film and knowing what defenses are doing meets your natural processing and instincts.  If Allen can read and react well he should succeed.

[BuffaloBillyG]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

Yeah, but Russell Wilson was considered NFL-ready from minute one.  It's correct that guys like that don't need to sit.

 

But that's the opposite of what Allen is considered. He's a guy who needs development. Yeah, he's done some of that with Jordan Palmer. But he's no Russell Wilson, who was considered mentally ready but questionable whether he'd ever be tall enough. That ain't Allen.

 

And yeah, Bills fans have changed their mind on how ready he is. But deciding something is true because you want it to be true is a path to be wrong nearly every time. Find, say, three pre-draft evaluations that say he's NFL-ready. Pre-draft, back from when Bills Nation wasn't desperate to see him start as soon as possible.

 

Four quick ones that suggest sitting:  Mike Mayock, Peter King, Dane Brugler, Jordan Palmer said he'd benefit from a year to sit. And I could find more, easily. Allen's OC at Wyoming, Brent Vigen. 

 

"I think he needs to be put in a situation where they're willing to coach him," Vigen said. "Because there's still room for growth as far as his understanding and how to apply it. I think, obviously, a situation where he could sit and learn, that would be the best for him. But if he is forced into it, what are the pieces around you? What's the defense like? What pressures are put on you to score points? All those things come into play."

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/23244329/josh-allen-wyoming-cowboys-ultimate-boom-bust-2018-nfl-draft-prospect

Same thing was said by much of the same people about Wentz. 

 

Truth is no one will really know anything until the pads come on. That's where we see where he is. 

[Thurman#1]

13 minutes ago, No Place To Hyde said:

Same thing was said by much of the same people about Wentz. 

 

Truth is no one will really know anything until the pads come on. That's where we see where he is. 

 

 

You're right that we can't be sure in advance.

 

But Gruden said Wentz was the most NFL-ready guy in years.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/one-nfl-analyst-thinks-carson-wentz-is-the-most-nfl-ready-qb-in-years/

 

Plenty of people disagreed at the time but it was a bit more of the "He might not be ready," type of thing than the "the team that drafts him will need to give him time to develop" that had been the consensus on Allen ... until Bills fans found he was on our team and got excited.

[BuffaloHokie13]

8 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

So serious question:

 

If starting Allen would be best for his development, why are all these QB pundits on record saying he should sit for a year or more?

What is the difference between your viewpoint and theirs?

I've gone over it before, he's had experience reading a defense pre-snap and adjusting the protections based on alignments; he's had run-run checks, run-pass checks, and pass-run checks based on alignment or numbers; he's determined his read progressions at the line based on matchups; and he's taken many snaps from under center and isn't unfamiliar with turning his back to the D. Since claiming that this was what I observed watching him on tape and listening to him in interviews, his college OC has come out and confirmed pretty much all of that. His footwork got sloppy at times when he was trying to do too much under fire and making hero plays. That's fine, he can reign that in. He'll need actual game experience to learn what he can and cannot get away with at this level though.

 

What is it exactly that you feel he needs to learn before he can play in an NFL game?

[Soda Popinski]

I don't know either way what's the right way to develop a QB, sitting the bench worked for Aaron Rodgers, while Carson Wentz played every game in 2016 so I can't say either way what the correct formula is, I think it is more about drafting the right QB who will work regardless of the situation, if he has to play early he makes it work, if he has to sit he makes it work.   

 

Hopefully Allen doesn't let circumstance dictate his career. 

[nucci]

How about wait until coaches think he's ready?  Rams sat Goff until they thought he was ready and took crap for it but it seems to have worked out well so far

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, nucci said:

How about wait until coaches think he's ready?  Rams sat Goff until they thought he was ready and took crap for it but it seems to have worked out well so far

 

They actually played him well before he was ready in 2016 in the final seven games and it was not pretty.

[Mr. WEO]

It's the NFL and he's a top 10 QB pick.  He starts.

[nucci]

Just now, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

They actually played him well before he was ready in 2016 in the final seven games and it was not pretty.

Right, forgot about that. Sorry

[26CornerBlitz]

Just now, Mr. WEO said:

It's the NFL and he's a top 10 QB pick.  He starts.

 

Trubisky and Mahomes didn't.

[Mr. WEO]

9 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Trubisky and Mahomes didn't.

 

Trubisky played from week 5 on--12 games. 

 

Mahomes was drafted behind a franchise QB--rare for a top 10.  The rest start almost always because they were drafted to.

 

 

Edited May 8, 2018 by Mr. WEO

[26CornerBlitz]

2 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Trubisky played from week 5 on--12 games. 

 

Mahomes was drafted behind a franchise QB--rare for a top 10.  The rest start almost always because they were drafted to.

 

Jared Goff didn't and neither will Mayfield.

[Soda Popinski]

1 minute ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Jared Goff didn't and neither will Mayfield.

I don't think Mayfield starts regardless of how he plays.   Hue seemed pretty adamant about going with Taylor.  We'll see if that strains his relationship with Dorsey or not.  

[BuffaloBillyG]

39 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

You're right that we can't be sure in advance.

 

But Gruden said Wentz was the most NFL-ready guy in years.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/one-nfl-analyst-thinks-carson-wentz-is-the-most-nfl-ready-qb-in-years/

 

Plenty of people disagreed at the time but it was a bit more of the "He might not be ready," type of thing than the "the team that drafts him will need to give him time to develop" that had been the consensus on Allen ... until Bills fans found he was on our team and got excited.

Oh, well if Gruden said it it must be true. 

[papazoid]

a legit open competition

 

hopefully they both look great

[Rocbillsfan1]

12 hours ago, No Place To Hyde said:

Everyone has an opinion on if he should start or sit. Unfortunately, none of us know what's TRULY in his best interest and would aide his development the best.

 

For every case of "Yea well Rodgers sat and turned out well" I can throw a "Yea well Russell Wilson never sat".

 

What it simply comes down to in my opinion is...what way does Josh Allen learn the best? Is he the type of learner that can watch others, ask questions and absorb it all in? Is he the kind of,guy that has to feel the moment, get his hands in the dough so to speak and figure it out that way? 

 

That said, my opinion is this. We are a run first team (no matter who is QB) that should have a solid defense. Whoever is the QB to start the season is going to be masked to some extent. If he is the kind of guy that can learn by doing, let him do it. 

Russel Wilson won the job if Allen does too great, if not start whoever does. Also sprinkling in Allen makes zero sense this isn’t college, if someone else wins the job you play them until they fail. 

[26CornerBlitz]

11 minutes ago, Soda Popinski said:

I don't think Mayfield starts regardless of how he plays.   Hue seemed pretty adamant about going with Taylor.  We'll see if that strains his relationship with Dorsey or not.  

 

Yep. Hue reiterated that yesterday.

[FearLess Price]

Its gonna be a battle AJM has been fighting his whole life for a chsnce to start. Hes not gonna just roll over.

[Soda Popinski]

Just now, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Yep. Hue reiterated that yesterday.

I did not know that.  

[HappyDays]

7 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

What exactly about him is raw?

 

His footwork and decision making, especially under pressure. I'm not sure how Beane defines "raw" but I guess he means that Allen comes from a pro system. I do think Allen's mechanics are raw and if we put him into live games before he's had enough time to correct them they will become ingrained as bad muscle memory. Whether Allen beats out McCarron and Peterman or not nothing this year should be more important than his mechanics developing properly.

[Mat68]

Here is the case to start Allen.  Exhibit A AJ Mccarron.  Exhibit B Nathan Peterman.  I dont hate either but I also expect Allen to to look and be so different that it becomes obvious.  All three are learning a new offense so he is not far behind in that aspect.  Going into training camp and into the preseason I think Allen starts to make the decision for the coaching staff and team.  

Edited May 8, 2018 by Mat68

[Juice_32]

13 hours ago, Buffalo86 said:

If there's such a thing as ruining a QB by starting him too soon, Allen's rawness would seem to make him a prime candidate.  Then again, he's used to having unblocked defenders harass him on every play, so there's that.  As for the other guys, I don't consider it a given that McCarron starts over Peterman.

 

It would not shock me if they went with Peterman. This staff genuinely seems to like him.

 

One thing that will be very interesting to watch this year at camp...the velocity difference between noodle armed Nate and AJ compared to Allen.

[T master]

I'm a bit old school i think it would do him good to sit for a while maybe even a yr to get his NFL feet under him like they use to do . 

 

Aaron Rogers & many others have benefitted by sitting & watching how it's done , or how it's not done which Bills fans have a lot of skepticism when it comes to AJ but i think he has benefited him self & will prove worthy of the get .

 

But in the world of the Bills fan he will never be good enough even if he does well & there will be those who will rail against him in any & all situations because they are Bills fans !! 

 

As it will be for Allen too !! GO BILLS !! 

[eball]

13 hours ago, Buffalo86 said:

If there's such a thing as ruining a QB by starting him too soon, Allen's rawness would seem to make him a prime candidate.  Then again, he's used to having unblocked defenders harass him on every play, so there's that.  As for the other guys, I don't consider it a given that McCarron starts over Peterman.

 

Brandon Beane would bristle at that statement.

 

I'm rooting for (and predicting) Allen will start W1.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I've gone over it before, he's had experience reading a defense pre-snap and adjusting the protections based on alignments; he's had run-run checks, run-pass checks, and pass-run checks based on alignment or numbers; he's determined his read progressions at the line based on matchups; and he's taken many snaps from under center and isn't unfamiliar with turning his back to the D. Since claiming that this was what I observed watching him on tape and listening to him in interviews, his college OC has come out and confirmed pretty much all of that. His footwork got sloppy at times when he was trying to do too much under fire and making hero plays. That's fine, he can reign that in. He'll need actual game experience to learn what he can and cannot get away with at this level though.

 

What is it exactly that you feel he needs to learn before he can play in an NFL game?

 

My feelings don't matter, but my understanding of what various QB-knowledgeable pundits (and his OC, reading between lines) have said is Allen

1) needs to improve footwork, make it more consistent

2) needs to improve precision of ball placement

3) needs to improve his game-day decision-making, specifically understanding of reads and progressions

4) needs to adjust to the NFL game -faster pace, more complicated and confusing defenses

 

The problem with 1) and 2) is that if his mind is tied up with 3) and 4) before he's worked them into muscle memory, he'll likely revert.

So he needs to get to a point where what he sees in practice and in film room is totally second nature, and where his improved footwork/mechanics are more engrained.

 

 

36 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Here is the case to start Allen.  Exhibit A AJ Mccarron.  Exhibit B Nathan Peterman.  I dont hate either but I also expect Allen to to look and be so different that it becomes obvious.  All three are learning a new offense so he is not far behind in that aspect.  Going into training camp and into the preseason I think Allen starts to make the decision for the coaching staff and team.  

 

And if he does that (makes the decision for them, because he just looks so much better) then I'm for it.

[colin]

Allen is gonna win the competition, start day 1, and smoke fools.

 

he'll only be passing a low number of times per game, but there will be long bombs and play action, which will back d off

[BuffaloHokie13]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

My feelings don't matter, but my understanding of what various QB-knowledgeable pundits (and his OC, reading between lines) have said is Allen

1) needs to improve footwork, make it more consistent

2) needs to improve precision of ball placement

3) needs to improve his game-day decision-making, specifically understanding of reads and progressions

4) needs to adjust to the NFL game -faster pace, more complicated and confusing defenses

 

The problem with 1) and 2) is that if his mind is tied up with 3) and 4) before he's worked them into muscle memory, he'll likely revert.

So he needs to get to a point where what he sees in practice and in film room is totally second nature, and where his improved footwork/mechanics are more engrained.

So that's where we differ then. I believe 1 & 2 are caused by him making 'hero plays' and trying to do too much, which can be reigned in as much by experience on the field as it can be coached off the field. Also I think 3 & 4 will progress much faster if he's actually in the scenarios being reviewed on film instead of just being an eye in the sky. I definitely believe there would be growing pains as he feels out what exactly he can get away with at this level (see Wentz year 1), but I see the experience as invaluable and the single thing he is most lacking. In time we'll see how it plays out though.

[Bray Wyatt]

I think Allen is going to surprise a lot of people

[HappyDays]

7 hours ago, mannc said:

For example, EJ Manuel is often held up as an example of a guy who was crippled by starting too soon, but does anyone really think that’s why he wasn’t a successsful NFL qb?

 

This is a question that's impossible to answer for sure. But EJ progressively got worse from his first game with the Bills to his last game with the Bills. We can't know for sure how his career would have gone otherwise but there is decent evidence that starting him early ruined him.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

26 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

So that's where we differ then. I believe 1 & 2 are caused by him making 'hero plays' and trying to do too much, which can be reigned in as much by experience on the field as it can be coached off the field. Also I think 3 & 4 will progress much faster if he's actually in the scenarios being reviewed on film instead of just being an eye in the sky. I definitely believe there would be growing pains as he feels out what exactly he can get away with at this level (see Wentz year 1), but I see the experience as invaluable and the single thing he is most lacking. In time we'll see how it plays out though.

 

I'm sure "hero plays" contribute, but throwing to WR who can't get separation or maybe make mistakes running routes (Beane alluded to this) and behind a porous OL is not going to help.

 

The main thing, though, is when I watch his combine and his private workout with the announcers muted, I still see some of the same problems - less frequently, but still there on some throws.  So it's not just "hero plays", it's a muscle habit he's trying to retrain.  Some people say "easy peasy", some people say "can't be done", I say "give it time to sink in so it has the best chance to be done".

[Mat68]

21 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

My feelings don't matter, but my understanding of what various QB-knowledgeable pundits (and his OC, reading between lines) have said is Allen

1) needs to improve footwork, make it more consistent

2) needs to improve precision of ball placement

3) needs to improve his game-day decision-making, specifically understanding of reads and progressions

4) needs to adjust to the NFL game -faster pace, more complicated and confusing defenses

 

The problem with 1) and 2) is that if his mind is tied up with 3) and 4) before he's worked them into muscle memory, he'll likely revert.

So he needs to get to a point where what he sees in practice and in film room is totally second nature, and where his improved footwork/mechanics are more engrained.

 

 

 

And if he does that (makes the decision for them, because he just looks so much better) then I'm for it.

Its never good to just start a young qb because.  That is how you ruin a prospect and lose the lockeroom.  If McCarron or Petermam are clearly better thats who you start.  Now you can go the other way to.  Nowhere in this galaxy was Savage better than Watson.  Why waste all those reps in TC and preseason on guy you give 2 quarters of football to?  Im higher on Allen most.  Of all the rookies him and Rosen are the most equipped to start right away imo.  Mcarron or Peterman would need to clearly and convincingly out perform Allen.  Based off what ive seen that will be a tall order for either.  

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Jared Goff didn't and neither will Mayfield.

 

Wentz, Winston, Mariota, Newton, RG3, Luck, Bradford, Bradford, Stafford, Sanchez, Ryan--those are just the recent guys.

 

Why won't Mayfield start?