Start Allen from Day 1/ QB competition

[JoeF]

He certainly doesn't seem like a mentally weak or a dumb kid, in fact, the opposite.  He already faced a test having to deal with a nightmare on draft day.  He handled that like a mature adult. He owned up to it-- even calling Stephen A. Smith at 2 AM to talk for 30 minutes about his regret.  

 

That said, I don't think he's ready.  He's got to learn an offense and work on his mechanics and work on recognition.  One of those would be a lot for any prospect. Accomplishing all three likely not doable between now and September.  This kid has the potential to be a special talent if he is coached and managed correctly. Bring Jordan Palmer in to continue the work, have a plan to work him in the last 6 weeks or so if the season is lost.  If not, keep getting him scout reps, particularly when prepping for teams who run a similar O.  Target a full off-season and open the competition next year no matter what happens this year.

14 minutes ago, Epstein's Mother said:

 

I ask this with complete sincerity:  Is there an example that someone can give me of a QB who was highly drafted and whose career was ruined because he played to soon?

I think David Carr could have been decent if he wasn't a tackling dummy his first 4 years.

Edited April 30, 2018 by JoeF

[SouthNYfan]

I heard he can toss a pigskin over a quarter mile.

[Epstein's Mother]

2 minutes ago, JoeF said:

I ask this with complete sincerity:  Is there an example that someone can give me of a QB who was highly drafted and whose career was ruined because he played to soon?

 

2 minutes ago, JoeF said:

I think David Carr could have been decent if he wasn't a tackling dummy his first 2 years.

 

I'll buy that.

[The Wiz]

9 minutes ago, Epstein's Mother said:

 

I ask this with complete sincerity:  Is there an example that someone can give me of a QB who was highly drafted and whose career was ruined because he played to soon?

I don't know the roster of the teams that took the players at the time so I can't say they should or shouldn't have started but a few players I can think of that came in expecting to turn the franchise around immediately were:

Ryan leaf

Joey Harrington

David Carr

 

There are a few others that played for a while but never developed to their full potential but those are the ones I could think of.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

4 minutes ago, Doc said:

Like I said before, there is no critical need to rush a rookie quarterback into the starting lineup.  Let the other two guys compete for the starting spot, and if/when the team starts to lose out on the playoff race, put Allen in. 

No, like I said before    (in these redundant threads)        

 

there is no critical need to rush a rookie quarterback into the starting lineup    

[LabattBlue]

1 hour ago, theRalph said:

...The drought is over. Don't look back. Josh Allen, on his way to becoming the most prolific QB in Bills history, will start 9/9/18.

 

Bash away!!

 

How about seeing him in training camp and pre-season games before making outrageous predictions.  

[NoSaint]

43 minutes ago, Bills4life1924 said:

I tend to disagree, I'm not saying he is pinpoint accurate. But he is certainly accurate and can make all the throws on the field. I don't get where ppl think he isn't accurate.(and don't even say completion %)

 

What metric would you accept?

[Epstein's Mother]

1 minute ago, The Wiz said:

I don't know the roster of the teams that took the players at the time so I can't say they should or shouldn't have started but a few players I can think of that came in expecting to turn the franchise around immediately were:

Ryan leaf

Joey Harrington

David Carr

 

There are a few others that played for a while but never developed to their full potential but those are the ones I could think of.

 

These are all reasonable responses.  As I said, this was a sincere question.

[Roundybout]

41 minutes ago, Epstein's Mother said:

 

I ask this with complete sincerity:  Is there an example that someone can give me of a QB who was highly drafted and whose career was ruined because he played to soon?

 

Here's one. Tim Couch. That Browns team had nothing, and of course he was played because what else did they have? I bet you he would have had at least a Dalton level career anywhere else, even the Bills, for example. 

[Bills4life1924]

18 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

 

What metric would you accept?

No stat is gonna tell me he's not accurate. I've watched a lot of tape/games of Allen(before and after draft), don't get me wrong I'm no scout of course. But if u watch enough of his tape any1 can see he is accurate. The problem I see more than anything(besides playing behind an awful line) is he doesn't make the right reads at times and tends to force the issue. Could be from being pressured a ton at Wyoming and wasn't able to go through his progressions, but accuracy is not an issue

[NoSaint]

Just now, Bills4life1924 said:

No stat is gonna tell me he's not accurate. I've watched a lot of tape/games of Allen(before and after draft), don't get me wrong I'm no scout of course. But if u watch enough of his tape any1 can see he is accurate. The problem I see more than anything(besides playing behind an awful line) is he doesn't make the right reads at times and tends to force the issue. Could be from being pressured a ton at Wyoming and wasn't able to go through his progressions, but accuracy is not an issue

 

So what your saying is you made up your mind and it’s not much worth discussing 

[Bills4life1924]

5 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

 

So what your saying is you made up your mind and it’s not much worth discussing 

Not what I'm saying at all. Don't know how u came to that conclusion. I gave my opinion/thoughts. I'm open to hear what u have to say

[Houston's #1 Bills Fan]

56 minutes ago, Epstein's Mother said:

 

I prefer that too but Brett Favre isn't available.

Yes he is! Just down on the farm. Let's go get him!!

[theRalph]

1 hour ago, Epstein's Mother said:

I ask this with complete sincerity:  Is there an example that someone can give me of a QB who was highly drafted and whose career was ruined because he played to soon?

I don't believe it's as much about playing too soon as it is the team a QB plays for. In the 20 drafts preceding this one there were 27 QBs selected with a top five pick. At least half of these I term "franchise" QBs. Trading up is more in vogue today, but in many of the drafts I studied, top five picks went to lousy teams that didn't properly develop the player, whenever they started. Development has far more to do with a bust than does the scouting process.

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, theRalph said:

It's Monday and the flow of calls bashing the Josh Allen pick continue. I wonder how many of these callers have actually watched the games and the scouting vids and blogs covering Allen. It feels like drought effects on fans still linger, even though the drought is now history. I define fan drought effects as a a predisposition of looking at anything the team does with negativity, because they've become conditioned to it over a generation of no playoffs.

 

Things have changed. McDermott and Beane in their time so far have done nothing but make smart moves. They have reshaped the locker room. They broke the drought with maybe the last version of the Bills one would have expected. They are certainly and systematically changing the franchise with their process. And yet their selections are being criticized as if they are still Ryan and Whaley. Nix and Gailey. And so on.

 

I watched everything I could find on Josh Allen prior to the draft and then watched it all again after. He is an accurate passer. Period. Completion percentage as a measure of accuracy is horsecrap. Allen was under pressure a lot. I see dropped passes. And under certain pressure he, at times, takes off a bit early. But he generally moves in the pocket well, with a Brady-esque hop avoiding pressure. He releases a football with up to a 74 mph fingertip speed. His release time is an insane .388 seconds. He does not throw balls in the dirt. He has a great football IQ and has run a pro style offense. He was not in a pass-happy college spread that benefitted the stats of some other draftees - like Mayfield. Allen completed 152 of 270 attempts in 2017 for a 56% completion percentage. Had he completed 23 more of these, he has a 65% average. Over 10 games, that's 2.3 drops per game. I saw more than that. 

 

The drought is over. Don't look back. Josh Allen, on his way to becoming the most prolific QB in Bills history, will start 9/9/18.

 

Bash away!!

 

 

 

Yeah, 9/9/19, maybe.

 

And as for the drops, yeah, he had them. And if you pretend they're catches his percentages go up. And if you do the same for other QBs their percentages also go up, beyond Allen's.

 

I'm still hopeful about the guy but he's competing against a guy who's been in the league for four years and knows how to play in the NFL. Even the pundits and film watchers who really like Allen say he needs a year or more to develop. Mayock, for instance really liked him but said that the team that gets him must be willing to be patient. 

 

Exactly.

[Epstein's Mother]

2 minutes ago, theRalph said:

I don't believe it's as much about playing too soon as it is the team a QB plays for. In the 20 drafts preceding this one there were 27 QBs selected with a top five pick. At least half of these I term "franchise" QBs. Trading up is more in vogue today, but in many of the drafts I studied, top five picks went to lousy teams that didn't properly develop the player, whenever they started. Development has far more to do with a bust than does the scouting process.

 

This is a good point.  After I posed my question I got a few very good responses.  Those players cited seemed to have one thing in common which was they pretty much went to bottom feeder teams that did not have any plan in place to develop them.

[Thurman#1]

40 minutes ago, Bills4life1924 said:

No stat is gonna tell me he's not accurate. I've watched a lot of tape/games of Allen(before and after draft), don't get me wrong I'm no scout of course. But if u watch enough of his tape any1 can see he is accurate. The problem I see more than anything(besides playing behind an awful line) is he doesn't make the right reads at times and tends to force the issue. Could be from being pressured a ton at Wyoming and wasn't able to go through his progressions, but accuracy is not an issue

 

 

I would disagree with that, because even Allen's QB coach Jordan Palmer freely admits he had accuracy problems, caused by overstepping and foot mechanics. Accuracy was a problem. It has been addressed and his accuracy has improved a great deal. The question is whether that improvement will stick. There's a pretty decent chance it will.

 

But as you say, there are some other issues.

[theRalph]

1 hour ago, NoSaint said:

What metric would you accept?

Establish an agreed to catch radius and determine through video analysis how many balls were within it. Accuracy, to me, is a measure of how close you are to your intended target...as we perceive it. Then you'd have to factor in pressure situations that would aggravate accuracy. Haven't heard anyone quote a stat the percentage of throws made under pressure. I watched all the tape and Josh Allen is an accurate passer.

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, Epstein's Mother said:

 

I prefer that too but Brett Favre isn't available.

 

 

No, but a guy for Allen to sit behind is.

 

And it ain't like if you put in a rookie QB this team will suddenly be good enough to compete for a championship next year.

 

1 hour ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

I personally like the way Peyton Manning was brought into the NFL as a rookie. Let him be aggressive and throw the ball downfield and learn from his mistakes while learning the speed of the NFL. Now if the O-Line looks really bad then put AJM in there, no reason for the QB to get beat up. If the O-Line is playing solid and Allen beats out AJM in the preseason he should start.

 

 

I hear you, but Peyton Manning was considered one of the most NFL-ready QBs out of college in the history of the league.

Edited April 30, 2018 by Thurman#1

[mannc]

With five of the first seven games on the road, I don’t expect to see Allen on the field until the second half of the season, barring injury to AJ of course.

[NoSaint]

9 minutes ago, theRalph said:

Establish an agreed to catch radius and determine through video analysis how many balls were within it. Accuracy, to me, is a measure of how close you are to your intended target...as we perceive it. Then you'd have to factor in pressure situations that would aggravate accuracy. Haven't heard anyone quote a stat the percentage of throws made under pressure. I watched all the tape and Josh Allen is an accurate passer.

 

Why don’t you hold your own assertion to that standard?

[Bills4life1924]

2 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I would disagree with that, because even Allen's QB coach Jordan Palmer freely admits he had accuracy problems, caused by overstepping and foot mechanics. Accuracy was a problem. It has been addressed and his accuracy has improved a great deal. The question is whether that improvement will stick. There's a pretty decent chance it will.

 

But as you say, there are some other issues.

Fair enough, I have read and watched palmer's interviews. But even with the foot mechanics, throwing on the run or off balanced he was still putting the ball in a catchable place for his receiver. You made a good point and appreciate the feedback! But for some to say he won't pan out bc he's not accurate is crazy. He's a lot more accurate than those ppl think. 

[cd1]

15 minutes ago, Epstein's Mother said:

 

16 minutes ago, Epstein's Mother said:

 

This is a good point.  After I posed my question I got a few very good responses.  Those players cited seemed to have one thing in common which was they pretty much went to bottom feeder teams that did not have any plan in place to develop them.

 

 

I think it is safe to say that the first 5 draft spots go to "bottom feeder" loser teams.  After all, it is the worst teams that get to pick first.

[whatdrought]

1 hour ago, Epstein's Mother said:

 

I ask this with complete sincerity:  Is there an example that someone can give me of a QB who was highly drafted and whose career was ruined because he played to soon?

 

I honestly wonder about EJ Manuel... He obviously had a lot of problems, but he never should have been played that early. 

[Doc]

1 hour ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

No, like I said before    (in these redundant threads)        

 

there is no critical need to rush a rookie quarterback into the starting lineup    

 

I said it earlier.  In context of Wood and RI retiring and making the OL a question mark that you wouldn't want to put a rookie behind until you know it's good.

[Canadian Bills Fan]

I would like him to sit this year and get his mechanics down and let us get some help on the offensive side of the ball next offseason

[Boca BIlls]

2 hours ago, whatdrought said:

I wouldn't mind putting him in and letting him take his lumps, but I also don't want to see him "ruined" which can be done by feeding him to the wolves too soon. 

Can't be ruined by being put in, you either get it or you don't in the NFL.

Edited April 30, 2018 by Boca BIlls

[Doc]

1 minute ago, whatdrought said:

I honestly wonder about EJ Manuel... He obviously had a lot of problems, but he never should have been played that early. 

 

I don't have a problem with starting guys from day 1.  Unless the OL will get them killed.

[No Cease Fires]

Here's the thing about his accuracy: you can't throw out his drops because that 60 percent or whatever acceptability level has drops accounted for. So then you're looking at more of a 63 to 65 percent accuracy benchmark and naturally Allen fails to meet that. 

 

However, you can watch his tape (I like 2017, his worst statistical season) and see a guy running for his life behind a turnstile line on many many plays. A guy who, when he has time and protection, is accurate almost all the time. A guy who had running backs averaging 3 YPC. A guy who played in a program that favored a pro-style passing game with lots of downfield action and few screens. You can see a QB who actually CAN hit swing passes with good ball placement, who DOES use touch on his throws with proficiency. 

 

So, I mean, keep the drops because everyone has them. I see a QB who can hit all the throws but needs to do so with consistency. And I do think that if he can get his footwork improved, he will find that consistency. There have already been indications that he's a fast learner so here's hoping.

Edited April 30, 2018 by No Cease Fires

[Boca BIlls]

11 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

 

I honestly wonder about EJ Manuel... He obviously had a lot of problems, but he never should have been played that early. 

If you can't play QB day one you never will play QB at a NFL starting level.

[whatdrought]

Just now, Boca BIlls said:

If you can't play QB day one you never will play QB at a NFL starting level.

 

http://www.nfl.com/player/peytonmanning/2501863/gamelogs?season=1998

 

K.

[Boca BIlls]

2 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

 

http://www.nfl.com/player/peytonmanning/2501863/gamelogs?season=1998

 

K.

That doesn't show me anything other than he was ready to play QB day 1. No such thing as playing a QB too early, simple as that. It didn't ruin Payten as you obviously showed.

Edited April 30, 2018 by Boca BIlls

[Da webster guy]

It's all about training camp, although it does seem to be a majority of retired NFL qb's like Warner, Aikman, Gannon etc. that say rookie qb's should get at least half a season on the bench, preferably a full year.    I still think the home game in week 9 against the Bears will be the kid's first game.

[Boca BIlls]

1 minute ago, Da webster guy said:

It's all about training camp, although it does seem to be a majority of retired NFL qb's like Warner, Aikman, Gannon etc. that say rookie qb's should get at least half a season on the bench, preferably a full year.    I still think the home game in week 9 against the Bears will be the kid's first game.

Week 1 he should be starting. Can't learn to play in the NFL if you don't actually play in the NFL.

[whatdrought]

9 minutes ago, Boca BIlls said:

That doesn't show me anything other than he was ready to play QB day 1. No such thing as playing a QB too early, simple as that. It didn't ruin Payten as you obviously showed.

 

It shows you that he didn't play well to start. He wasn't "ready" day 1, and yet he magically became ready later which is the very thing you said never happened. QB's often times sit on the bench and then play well after time (Aaron Rogers) and QB's often times struggle on day one and figure it out later (Peyton Manning). 

 

It didn't ruin Manning, but that doesn't change the fact that starting too soon can hurt a players future because it can build tendencies and habits within the game that are necessitated by survival which are not good for his overall game. It's called training. 

 

4 minutes ago, Boca BIlls said:

Week 1 he should be starting. Can't learn to play in the NFL if you don't actually play in the NFL.

 

Does your view on this transition seamlessly to other professions? 

 

Gotta get in there on day one and perform heart surgery. Can't learn heart surgery if you don't do heart surgery. 

 

Gotta get in there and fly that plane. Only way to learn how to fly is to fly. 

 

Gotta go try that case. Only way to be a lawyer is to go and do lawyer things. 

 

 

If the coaches think that Allen is ready to start, then he should. But if they think he needs more time to learn and to grow and to improve, then they should let him sit and learn. Trial by fire can work, but blindly throwing a guy into the flames without him being ready is stupid. 

Edited April 30, 2018 by whatdrought

[Tenhigh]

3 hours ago, theRalph said:

It's Monday and the flow of calls bashing the Josh Allen pick continue. I wonder how many of these callers have actually watched the games and the scouting vids and blogs covering Allen. It feels like drought effects on fans still linger, even though the drought is now history. I define fan drought effects as a a predisposition of looking at anything the team does with negativity, because they've become conditioned to it over a generation of no playoffs.

 

Things have changed. McDermott and Beane in their time so far have done nothing but make smart moves. They have reshaped the locker room. They broke the drought with maybe the last version of the Bills one would have expected. They are certainly and systematically changing the franchise with their process. And yet their selections are being criticized as if they are still Ryan and Whaley. Nix and Gailey. And so on.

 

I watched everything I could find on Josh Allen prior to the draft and then watched it all again after. He is an accurate passer. Period. Completion percentage as a measure of accuracy is horsecrap. Allen was under pressure a lot. I see dropped passes. And under certain pressure he, at times, takes off a bit early. But he generally moves in the pocket well, with a Brady-esque hop avoiding pressure. He releases a football with up to a 74 mph fingertip speed. His release time is an insane .388 seconds. He does not throw balls in the dirt. He has a great football IQ and has run a pro style offense. He was not in a pass-happy college spread that benefitted the stats of some other draftees - like Mayfield. Allen completed 152 of 270 attempts in 2017 for a 56% completion percentage. Had he completed 23 more of these, he has a 65% average. Over 10 games, that's 2.3 drops per game. I saw more than that. 

 

The drought is over. Don't look back. Josh Allen, on his way to becoming the most prolific QB in Bills history, will start 9/9/18.

 

Bash away!!

 

Did you read Ben Solak's review on NDT Scouting?

 

 

Solak's write up

Edited April 30, 2018 by Tenhigh

[greeneblitz]

I too believe he'll start this year, I think it's about 50/50 he starts on day one, I'm guessing most of you don't even listen to Brandon Bean interviews, it's clear 2 things, Allen is the only plan, he'll play as soon as he's ready and 2 he'll begin the off-season at #3.

[Kelly the Dog]

2 hours ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

I personally like the way Peyton Manning was brought into the NFL as a rookie. Let him be aggressive and throw the ball downfield and learn from his mistakes while learning the speed of the NFL. Now if the O-Line looks really bad then put AJM in there, no reason for the QB to get beat up. If the O-Line is playing solid and Allen beats out AJM in the preseason he should start.

There is no proven way to do it. There are just as many examples of great quarterbacks thrown into the fire early as sit him and let him watch. It's impossible for me to believe that after three years of starting, Aaron Rodgers, entering his fourth season wouldn't be as good as Aaron Rodgers as a rookie.

[LABILLBACKER]

3 hours ago, ddaryl said:

LMAO.. I'll take a wait and see approach.

 

Nobody knows where this will end up, but I seriously doubt he starts the year

....nor should he...let AJ and Peterman play....teach Allen the speed and intricacies of the NFL game. Don't rush him out there or you will have wasted 2 second round picks....

[Tenhigh]

41 minutes ago, Boca BIlls said:

That doesn't show me anything other than he was ready to play QB day 1. No such thing as playing a QB too early, simple as that. It didn't ruin Payten as you obviously showed.

This really seems like a simplistic way of looking at a topic that is quite complex.