Moving up to #2 = No Playoffs for the next three years

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, smuvtalker said:

I'm gonna go with Edmunds, Barkley (Penny maybe, if we get him), and Chark.

 

I'll ask you the same thing I asked pete.

 

Do you KNOW they'll be successful, or is it a "lottery ticket?"

 

[HOUSE]

Could be 18 years....lol

[freddyjj]

Oh and btw, the Bills traded a future Pro Bowl RB, their #1 pick in 1988, their #1 pick in 1989 and a 2nd rd pick in 1989 for an Outside LB named Cornelius Bennett in 1987.  That team was building for the future too!   And they used a 2nd Rounder in 1988, their first pick in that draft to pick #34 Thurman Thomas.

 

Did everyone have more cajones back then?  Why are so many afraid of ID'ing the QB of the future and moving to obtain him?  IMHO a  strong GM an College Scouting system should yield the returns we all are hoping for again.

[Logic]

3 hours ago, Domdab99 said:

 

Hey, it's possible, and I hope it works. But who is Rosen or Mayfield going to be throwing to, exactly? 

That question makes it sound as if Free Agency doesn't exist, and that the Bills don't have $90 million going into it next year. 

Additionally, the picks we would use to move up would only be from this year's -- and potentially next year's -- draft. If we hit on the right QB, he could be here for 10+ years. That being the case, the notion of being temporarily minorly hamstrung in terms of draft picks does not dissuade me from wanting to identify and select said QB. Besides, if said QB is good enough, he will elevate the receivers already on the roster (Benjamin, Jones, Reilly, Clay for starters). 

[BuffaloHokie13]

QB: Josh Rosen

LB: Roquon Smith

RB: Derrius Guice

WR: DJ Moore

 

I know it.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Am I wrong about this? Over the past 10 years teams that have traded in to the top 5 were in the playoffs within 2 years? 

 

Jets - made playoffs year 1

Redskins - made playoffs year 1

Rams - made playoffs year 2

Eagles - made playoffs year 2

Bears -? 

 

The Bills have $100 million in cap and no major contracts for 3 years. They may struggle in 2018, but can build up the roster in 2019.

[Big Gun]

4 hours ago, Domdab99 said:

Moving up is sexy, it's fun, it's what's for dinner these days. But moving up will set the team's growth back three, maybe five years. Possibly longer. This team has so many holes, that to throw away all these picks on a QB who might be good is insanity. 

 

If we can somehow move up and still have 1 2nd and 1 3rd...I'd be willing to listen. But only for Rosen or Mayfield. Trading up for any of the other QBs is insanity. Especially since Jackson has a very good chance of being there at 12. Hell, he has a good chance of being there at 22.

 

I'd rather pick an elite player at 12 - Roquan Smith, Derwin James, Vita Vea....etc. Use the rest of the picks on holes like WR, OL, DL, LB....

 

Throwing away this draft along with a first next next year? No thanks. 

Didn't set the Eagles back.

[freddyjj]

14 minutes ago, Pete said:

So we Trent Dilfer, Jim McMahon, Doug Williams, Nick Foles, Jeff Hostletter are ok to overpay for as well?  The Ravens D won that superbowl

Pete, I believe you got your SB wins by the Ravens mixed up.

 

2013 SB won by Baltimore 34-31 over 49ers.  Ravens "GREAT D" gave up 484 yds and 31 points to Colin Kapepernick led 49ers - let that sink in.

Oh and Joe Flacco was 22/33 for 287 and 3 TDs and won MVP of SB.

 

IMHO you are severely underrating the role a QB plays in a team's success.  OBD and the Bills are proof of what not having a franchise QB can do to a franchise

 

[smuvtalker]

14 minutes ago, joesixpack said:

 

I'll ask you the same thing I asked pete.

 

Do you KNOW they'll be successful, or is it a "lottery ticket?"

 

No, I don't know at all.  Definitely more of a lottery ticket then anything sure.  Edmunds maybe like 50,000 tickets, Barkley, 25,000, and Chark 12 tickets.  

[QCity]

Goal isn't to get to the playoffs.

[#34fan]

3 hours ago, CountDorkula said:

The majority of McCarron’s passes in the NFL so far came over his three starts at the end of the 2015 season. Over that stretch, the Bengals beat the 49ers and Ravens, each of whom finished 5-11, and lost in overtime to the eventual Super Bowl-champion Broncos.

McCarron completed 54 of his 83 passes (65.1 percent) over that stretch with four touchdowns and no interceptions. That may look impressive and was good enough for a 100.1 passer rating as a starter, but the problem was that the Bengals’ offense slowed to a crawl.

He averaged just 184 passing yards in those games, stalling an offense that averaged 376.9 yards in Dalton’s 13 starts. With McCarron at the helm for the final three games, Cincinnati averaged 276 yards and couldn’t top 300.

That continued into the postseason, where the Bengals lost 18-16 to the Steelers and were outgained 369 yards to 279.

Even during McCarron’s days at Alabama, he had a reputation as a game manager who leaned on a strong running game and an NFL-caliber cast around him. Hoping he can generate offense on his own and lead a team to points with his arm may be too much to ask.

https://www.sbnation.com/2018/3/13/17020272/aj-mccarron-nfl-free-agency-2018-cincinnati-bengals

 

so 4 TD's in 3 games with no INT's but the offense failed to move the ball consistently. hmmm.. where have i heard that before. 

 

The numbers AJ put up as a starter aren't inconsistent with the backup QB position... In that role, you just want someone that won't lose you games... Tyrod, by contrast was a starter giving you consistent backup production... He did not fulfill his role... 134 yards and 1 interception in the Jacksonville wildcard game is unforgiveable... AJ gets credit for time spent sitting behind a pro, learning the game... he also gets kudos for NOT losing the majority of the games he started as a pro... To me, that's a better starting point than ZERO in terms of NFL experience. -Especially given the sketchiness we now have at OC.

 

Edited April 3, 2018 by #34fan

[Tyrod's friend]

4 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

 

Rams say Hi 

After the 2016 season they went out and got themselves a damned good LT, a couple of WR, and a pretty brilliant offensive mind.

I don't think anyone in LA was saying "Hi" before then and I know my RamsFanSinceWarner  son wasn't crowing too much.

[gobills1212]

3 hours ago, Augie said:

There are “different opinions”, I’d like to think there is not “stupidity”.  I’ll try to relax, we still have weeks to go.... 

Agreed

I will NEVER EVER EVER subscribe to OPs thought process here.

It just will never happen, and even knowing the FQB could bust and it could be a waste, 10/10 times I hope they do ANYTHING possible to get that guy.

Thats as FAR opposite as OP and I can get.

That said, its his view. Its thought out and explained and isnt like the people who crawl out from under a rock, listen to 1 draft show, state the obvious and dub themselves an expert. 

Anything in the vein of the former cant be considered stupid.... just and opinion. Its OK to disagree. 

Sometimes we seem to forget that.

[wagon127]

When we missed the playoffs for 17 straight years, were we without a 1st, 2nd and 3rd round draft picks the entire time? Or were we missing a franchise QB?

[BuffaloRush]

5 hours ago, Domdab99 said:

Moving up is sexy, it's fun, it's what's for dinner these days. But moving up will set the team's growth back three, maybe five years. Possibly longer. This team has so many holes, that to throw away all these picks on a QB who might be good is insanity. 

 

If we can somehow move up and still have 1 2nd and 1 3rd...I'd be willing to listen. But only for Rosen or Mayfield. Trading up for any of the other QBs is insanity. Especially since Jackson has a very good chance of being there at 12. Hell, he has a good chance of being there at 22.

 

I'd rather pick an elite player at 12 - Roquan Smith, Derwin James, Vita Vea....etc. Use the rest of the picks on holes like WR, OL, DL, LB....

 

Throwing away this draft along with a first next next year? No thanks. 

“It’s whats for dinner?”  WTF stupid kind of verbiage is that?  Terrible

[Tyrod's friend]

1 hour ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Does having all of those picks meant that the Bills will hit on each one?   Even if they do the team only gets so far without a consistently good to great QB.  Take the swing, it's long overdue. 

Can we still call it taking a swing if we just draft the QB available at 12? or for that matter, 22? 

Question is whether or not we can trust the brains over there. If not they are just as likely to screw up the second pick in the draft as the 12th. Just get it right. This one time, be the team that drafts Ryan Clady instead of Leodis. Be the team that drafts Haloti Ngata instead of Donte Whitner. Get Clay Matthews instead of Aaron Maybin. 

It's always taking a swing. No matter where in the draft.


 

[BuffaloHokie13]

23 minutes ago, wagon127 said:

When we missed the playoffs for 17 straight years, were we without a 1st, 2nd and 3rd round draft picks the entire time? Or were we missing a franchise QB?

If I told you that, barring the players we selected this past year, there are only 3 players on our roster that we used a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd round pick on since 2000 (and all of them are still on their rookie deals) would it be surprising? If you want to include Tre White, Zay Jones, and Dion Dawkins then there are 6.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, BuffaloHokie13 said:

If I told you that, barring the players we selected this past year, there are only 3 players on our roster that we used a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd round pick on since 2000 (and all of them are still on their rookie deals) would it be surprising? If you want to include Tre White, Zay Jones, and Dion Dawkins then there are 6.

 

Why do you figure that is?

 

I know the answer, but I wanna see if you think the same way I do on this.

 

[BuffaloHokie13]

Just now, joesixpack said:

Why do you figure that is?

 

I know the answer, but I wanna see if you think the same way I do on this.

A combination of poor picks, coaching/scheme turnover, and an unwillingness to pay up once the rookie contract ends.

[Foxx]

5 hours ago, Domdab99 said:

Moving up is sexy, it's fun, it's what's for dinner these days. But moving up will set the team's growth back three, maybe five years. Possibly longer. This team has so many holes, that to throw away all these picks on a QB who might be good is insanity. 

 

If we can somehow move up and still have 1 2nd and 1 3rd...I'd be willing to listen. But only for Rosen or Mayfield. Trading up for any of the other QBs is insanity. Especially since Jackson has a very good chance of being there at 12. Hell, he has a good chance of being there at 22.

 

I'd rather pick an elite player at 12 - Roquan Smith, Derwin James, Vita Vea....etc. Use the rest of the picks on holes like WR, OL, DL, LB....

 

Throwing away this draft along with a first next next year? No thanks. 

i'll tell you what is insanity, doing what has always been done and expecting different results. you only need ask yourself one question, what did Buffalo's glory days consist of? i'll give you a hint, a franchise QB. the rest of Bills history, not much to be desired. glad your not the GM.

 

get your QB McBean

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, BuffaloHokie13 said:

A combination of poor picks, coaching/scheme turnover, and an unwillingness to pay up once the rookie contract ends.

 

The larger reason is that they never had a QB to hold the team together, IMO.

 

If you don't have a franchise QB, coaches tend to last 3 years, max. When new coaches come in, they want new guys.

 

[billsfan_34]

5 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

 

Did they say that about Philly???  

Iggles didnt have nearly as many holes then plugged in 2 power running backs via FA and trade.

[BuffaloHokie13]

Just now, joesixpack said:

The larger reason is that they never had a QB to hold the team together, IMO.

 

If you don't have a franchise QB, coaches tend to last 3 years, max. When new coaches come in, they want new guys.

For whatever it may be worth (probably nothing) here's the positional breakdown:

WR: 9

DE: 8

LB: 7

CB: 6

DT: 6

S: 5

OT: 5

RB: 4

QB: 3

G: 2

TE: 1

C: 1

[mjt328]

2 hours ago, Domdab99 said:

Good points. But how many years does it set us back if the QB you move up for us isn't anything special?

 

The same can be said for any other position.

 

The Rams were overloaded with picks from the RGIII trade.  They drafted some good and some bad.  But they were stuck in a perpetual state of 7-9, until THEY decided to make the "desperate" move up for a QB.  How many picks have the Browns stockpiled over the last few years?  They have exactly one win in two seasons.

 

Making the playoffs does nothing for me.  Winning the division does nothing for me.  All I want is a Super Bowl championship.

The chances of us EVER doing that without a franchise Quarterback are very, very small.

I will gladly sacrifice 2-3 seasons of "just making" the playoffs, if it gives us the chance to ultimately land the right guy.

 

Now... If the Bills are extremely confident in someone like Lamar Jackson or Mason Rudolph (who they can get at #12 or #22), then I would be OK without them trading up.  But if they are just willing to settle for a lesser prospect - simply for the sake of keeping picks and drafting another Linebacker or Tackle - then I think they are being foolish in the long-run.

 

[gobilz]

Let's keep plugging holes 

[Foxx]

2 minutes ago, gobilz said:

Let's keep plugging holes 

eventually, you are going to run out of fingers.

[MAJBobby]

1 hour ago, Tyrod's friend said:

After the 2016 season they went out and got themselves a damned good LT, a couple of WR, and a pretty brilliant offensive mind.

I don't think anyone in LA was saying "Hi" before then and I know my RamsFanSinceWarner  son wasn't crowing too much.

 

So I guess Rams are the only team that after they trade up for a QB are allowed to make other moves in year two. 

 

Apparantly we cant. We can only draft

[The Jokeman]

6 hours ago, jr1 said:

people have already written off AJ

The Bills didn't give him starting QB money so not sure we really feel he's writing up to begin with.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

46 minutes ago, joesixpack said:

 

Why do you figure that is?

 

I know the answer, but I wanna see if you think the same way I do on this.

 

9-7 7-9 7-9 8-8 ????

[Hebert19]

This I agree with wholeheartedly.  This is why I have been saying all along.  Take best qb available and draft a good core of players. 

[Mango]

Please. The Bills might not make the playoffs next year even if the roster stayed exactly the same as last year. 

[row_33]

i don't mind missing the eking out of a fluke playoff spot for a few years if they build a real contender

 

 

[Domdab99]

3 hours ago, Boca BIlls said:

Wrong

 

Whew! That's good to know. Thanks.

2 hours ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

QB: Josh Rosen

LB: Roquon Smith

RB: Derrius Guice

WR: DJ Moore

 

I know it.

 

LOL we have a shot at ONE of these players. Maybe two. 

2 hours ago, Logic said:

That question makes it sound as if Free Agency doesn't exist, and that the Bills don't have $90 million going into it next year. 

Additionally, the picks we would use to move up would only be from this year's -- and potentially next year's -- draft. If we hit on the right QB, he could be here for 10+ years. That being the case, the notion of being temporarily minorly hamstrung in terms of draft picks does not dissuade me from wanting to identify and select said QB. Besides, if said QB is good enough, he will elevate the receivers already on the roster (Benjamin, Jones, Reilly, Clay for starters). 

 

Okay, what No. 1 receivers are going to be on the market in FA next year? And LOL at including Reilly. 

1 hour ago, BuffaloRush said:

“It’s whats for dinner?”  WTF stupid kind of verbiage is that?  Terrible

 

I deeply apologize. I hope your snowflake didn't melt. 

[Domdab99]

1 hour ago, mjt328 said:

 

The same can be said for any other position.

 

The Rams were overloaded with picks from the RGIII trade.  They drafted some good and some bad.  But they were stuck in a perpetual state of 7-9, until THEY decided to make the "desperate" move up for a QB.  How many picks have the Browns stockpiled over the last few years?  They have exactly one win in two seasons.

 

Making the playoffs does nothing for me.  Winning the division does nothing for me.  All I want is a Super Bowl championship.

The chances of us EVER doing that without a franchise Quarterback are very, very small.

I will gladly sacrifice 2-3 seasons of "just making" the playoffs, if it gives us the chance to ultimately land the right guy.

 

Now... If the Bills are extremely confident in someone like Lamar Jackson or Mason Rudolph (who they can get at #12 or #22), then I would be OK without them trading up.  But if they are just willing to settle for a lesser prospect - simply for the sake of keeping picks and drafting another Linebacker or Tackle - then I think they are being foolish in the long-run.

 

 

Don't be disingenuous. No it can't. You can't say that a franchise QB is the difference maker, and then say that a pick we give up so many other picks for ,who doesn't work out, is the same as another pick not working out. 

 

And I agree with you on most things. The difference is this front office making the decisions and the picks seems like they know what they are doing. That's the difference between them and the other regimes clicking buttons and not going after a franchise guy. I have to assume that if they do not trade up, that they know what they're doing. But that's not a given, of course. 

[Tyrod's friend]

37 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

So I guess Rams are the only team that after they trade up for a QB are allowed to make other moves in year two. 

 

Apparantly we cant. We can only draft

They've already lost one of the WR. The LT is in decline.

The point here is that their QB move was considered a, failure after the 16 season and their success today isn't because of him. If the HC doesn't come along, it's completely a different song. We'll see if Mr. Goff has what it takes but their HC has more to say about his success than the decision to move up to get him.

And the ultimate irony here is that part of the treasure trove the Rams gave up came from the Redskins, when DC blundered their way to "moving up" and getting RGIII. I doubt the Skins are saying "hi". Who knows. If the Skins didn't move up to get Griffin, maybe Cousins is the starter and maybe the Skins are taking Aaron Donald in 2014 instead of the Rams. 

Oh, the hidden costs of moving up. But hey take a shot. What can possibly go wrong?
 

[Logic]

8 minutes ago, Domdab99 said:

 

Whew! That's good to know. Thanks.

 

LOL we have a shot at ONE of these players. Maybe two. 

 

Okay, what No. 1 receivers are going to be on the market in FA next year? And LOL at including Reilly. 

 

I deeply apologize. I hope your snowflake didn't melt. 

Sorry. For some reason, I was under the impression that you actually wanted to have a discussion. Ya know, since you were the one who started the topic and all.

I should have remembered: there are two types of posters on football message boards:

Those who want to have earnest and multi-faceted discussions about various topics and who are open to input, contrary opinions, and who treat others with respect since, ya know, it's just a football message board after all.

-- and --

Those who only make posts to prove a point, and who will reply as many times as it takes to tell everyone with contrary opinions that they're wrong. These types of posters aren't interested in actual discussion, only with making sure everyone knows how correct and smart they are. These types of posters also often belittle, mock, and name-call. It's their go-to weapon. And if anyone dares point out that they're acting like a know-it-all bully, they go with the old standby "sorry, snowflake!"

I'm done wasting time with this. You are clearly a world class intellect. None of us are worthy. Have a lovely day.

 

[Domdab99]

3 minutes ago, Logic said:

Sorry. For some reason, I was under the impression that you actually wanted to have a discussion. Ya know, since you were the one who started the topic and all.

I should have remembered: there are two types of posters on football message boards:

Those who want to have earnest and multi-faceted discussions about various topics and who are open to input, contrary opinions, and who treat others with respect since, ya know, it's just a football message board after all.

-- and --

Those who only make posts to prove a point, and who will reply as many times as it takes to tell everyone with contrary opinions that they're wrong. These types of posters aren't interested in actual discussion, only with making sure everyone knows how correct and smart they are. These types of posters also often belittle, mock, and name-call. It's their go-to weapon. And if anyone dares point out that they're acting like a know-it-all bully, they go with the old standby "sorry, snowflake!"

I'm done wasting time with this. You are clearly a world class intellect. None of us are worthy. Have a lovely day.

 

 

 

LOL I am discussing things, where am I not? In fact, I agree with a lot of what people are saying. I want a franchise guy, too. 

 

 The first response was to someone who only replied "wrong." The last response was for - well, you can read, can't you? Maybe you meant this response for them? Or did your snowflake melt, too? 

[Happy]

I want a franchise QB like everyone else, but the OP is correct in that there are too many holes to fill by trading up to the top five and giving up our other first (#22), a bunch of other picks, and a first NEXT draft.  Next year's draft will be a bit lean for us if we move up that high, and why the OP is correct in saying the next 2-3 years will be disappointing.  If we have to move up a couple (9-10) to get a guy we are really high on then fine, it won't cost too much.  I'd prefer to stay at 12 and 22 and draft BPA.

 

To those saying the Rams did it with Goff, well yeah, but they were one and done in the playoffs.  Also, no one has been more active in FA than the Rams.  McD and Beane have stated they want to build through the draft.  Giving away picks on a gamble isn't building through the draft.  And the Eagles were lucky that they had a good backup QB in Foles that happened to outscore Brady.  The Eagles secondary is still a huge hole they haven't been able to fill, most likely because they haven't had the picks to do so the past two drafts.

[Teddy KGB]

8 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

Anyone notice what a real QB did for San Fran ONCE the trade for Jimmy G was made. 

 

Instant upgrade. 

 

But in Buffalo land it means no playoffs for 3 years 

 

OP Must have missed that 

[Beast]

8 hours ago, BBills88 said:

Dont forget Jimmy G was brewing in New England behind Tom Brady for 4 years.

 

Brewing doing what? Standing on the sidelines for 4 seasons holding a clipboard?

 

I can make a very long list of QB’s that have done that and turned out to be no good at all.

 

Either you are or you aren’t. 

Edited April 4, 2018 by Binghamton Beast