Moving up to #2 = No Playoffs for the next three years

[Pete]

1 minute ago, What a Tuel said:

 

So you are going on record right now and saying the Bills had the playoff drought because they missed on drafting and that was more detrimental than missing on QB? 

I am.  Take the Vikes.  They drafted excellent the past 3 seasons.  Now they have one of the deepest rosters in the NFL.  They win no matter who starts at QB.  And now that their roster is set, they went all in on Kirk Cousins.  

[buffalobloodfloridahome]

Who knows what the QB landscape looks like next year or the year after we have a few guys projected to come out. This QB draft class of Darnold and Rosen in particular has been touted for years. Then Allen and Mayfield popped up almost from obscurity and Lamar Jackson, Mason Rudolph, Lauletta, White and so on and so on. They could all be busts for all we know or people could look back and say this is the best QB draft since 1983 and the Bills blew it but be thankful we got such a good safety at 12 he really made a difference for the 5 years he played for us. We have to take a chance and go for who we feel is the best QB in the draft by all means necessary and then we can plug in all the players around him. I say we trade with the Giants and take our man at 2 and then figure everything else out. We have already filled allot of holes with free agency on our Dline and secondary. We need a wr, MLB and another corner really and more Oline depth.

[cudi]

23 hours ago, jr1 said:

people have already written off AJ

You mean AJ "Future Super Bowl MVP" McCarron 

[Batman1876]

When was the last time the Bills had a chance to draft a QB prospect that was considered an Elite prospect going into the draft? 2004? are you really ok with waiting another 14 years to get a good shot at one? 

15 minutes ago, Pete said:

I am.  Take the Vikes.  They drafted excellent the past 3 seasons.  Now they have one of the deepest rosters in the NFL.  They win no matter who starts at QB.  And now that their roster is set, they went all in on Kirk Cousins.  

No matter who that QB is as long as they play like a top 5 QB that year. 

[What a Tuel]

11 minutes ago, Pete said:

I am.  Take the Vikes.  They drafted excellent the past 3 seasons.  Now they have one of the deepest rosters in the NFL.  They win no matter who starts at QB.  And now that their roster is set, they went all in on Kirk Cousins.  

 

In 2014 the Vikings traded up for Bridgewater in 2014 costing them 2nd and 4th round selections.

In 2016 the Vikings drafted Treadwell with a 1st round pick. Guy has 21 catches 215 yards total.

In 2017 the Vikings traded a 1st round pick and 4th round pick for Bradford.

 

But yeah the Vikings sure didn't invest in QB and would sure miss those picks.

[Tyrod's friend]

17 minutes ago, What a Tuel said:

 

So you are going on record right now and saying the Bills had the playoff drought because they missed on drafting and that was more detrimental than missing on QB? 

Oh, 100%. 

Let's go back in time. If we had simply gotten 2 Time AP Clady, MVP Clay Matthews and PB Haloti Ngata  this team has a different angle throughout the last 15 years. Just those last two names; if Haloti Ngata had clogged the middle and let Clay run rampant you have a top 5 defense nearly every year. Those weren't hard picks to make. 

These aren't random names here. Most everyone on a Message Board was clamoring for anything other than McKelvin, Whitner and Maybin.

And that's not unusual - we wound up having to take Marshawn Lynch and passing on the best CB in the NFL for the last 25 years because we were busy playing musical chairs with Willis McGahee. It's not that Lynch wasn't a good pick, although we let him leave too soon. We jerked our chain at RB since Travis Henry was here because the FO always was the smartest guys in the room.

If you fail at talent assessment generally, then it just doesn't matter if we had picked 17 QBs in 17 years. This has been an inept organization at assessing talent for a generation.

Cheers,
Alex.

[Batman1876]

19 minutes ago, Tyrod's friend said:

Oh, 100%. 

Let's go back in time. If we had simply gotten 2 Time AP Clady, MVP Clay Matthews and PB Haloti Ngata  this team has a different angle throughout the last 15 years. Just those last two names; if Haloti Ngata had clogged the middle and let Clay run rampant you have a top 5 defense nearly every year. Those weren't hard picks to make. 

These aren't random names here. Most everyone on a Message Board was clamoring for anything other than McKelvin, Whitner and Maybin.

And that's not unusual - we wound up having to take Marshawn Lynch and passing on the best CB in the NFL for the last 25 years because we were busy playing musical chairs with Willis McGahee. It's not that Lynch wasn't a good pick, although we let him leave too soon. We jerked our chain at RB since Travis Henry was here because the FO always was the smartest guys in the room.

If you fail at talent assessment generally, then it just doesn't matter if we had picked 17 QBs in 17 years. This has been an inept organization at assessing talent for a generation.

Cheers,
Alex.

For the past 5 years we would have needed the '85 Bears to have had a real shot at a deep playoff run because we would have needed a D that could hold playoff teams to 3-7 points. 

[BuffaloHokie13]

2 minutes ago, Batman1876 said:

For the past 5 years we would have needed the '85 Bears to have had a real shot at a deep playoff run because we would have needed a D that could hold playoff teams to 3-7 points. 

24 points is what you meant to say.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

32 minutes ago, cudi said:

You mean AJ "Future Super Bowl MVP" McCarron 

If Foles can win a Super Bowl with that Eagles roster then AJM should be able to do the same. AJM was going to be traded for a 2nd and a 5th rd pick before the Browns messed it up. Foles was signed to a low contract to be a backup QB. The point is if you have a talented roster you can win a Super Bowl with a average starter which I think Foles is.

 

Im not taking anything away from Foles, he played a great game and deserves a shot as a starter. The Eagles have 2 good big WR's and a top 3 TE,  if Foles is traded he will be lucky to have anything close to that. 

 

 

[reddogblitz]

4 hours ago, Batman1876 said:

So he’s s mystery who had a lot to prove. How often do guys like that turn into franchise QBs? And he signed after Bradford. 

 

Kurt Warner

Brett Favre

Matt Hasselbeck

Doug Flutie

Warren Moon

Drew Brees

[Batman1876]

18 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

24 points is what you meant to say.

Our Offense was anemic against playoff teams mostly due to the fact that we had 1 passing TD every 4 games. 

18 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

 

Kurt Warner-Good example 

Brett Favre-Was Acquired for a 1st round pick, not as a street free agent

Matt Hasselbeck-Not a bad example but he was brought over by a head coach who had been his coach

Doug Flutie- Not a franchise QB

Warren Moon-Signed after a bidding war for his services, 

Drew Brees-Had already started 60 games not 3 and had played well

So 2 20 year old examples. Not great odds.  

[BuffaloHokie13]

Just now, Batman1876 said:

Our Offense was anemic against playoff teams mostly due to the fact that we had 1 passing TD every 4 games. 

Over the past 3 years we are 23-7 when the opponent is held to less than 24 points. That's over 75% win rate.

 

Then again, I'm not sure what I expected from someone who touts demonstrably false statements as 'facts'.

[Batman1876]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Over the past 3 years we are 23-7 when the opponent is held to less than 24 points. That's over 75% win rate.

 

Then again, I'm not sure what I expected from someone who touts demonstrably false statements as 'facts'.

What demonstrably false things have I presented as facts? I'll also point out that one of those losses was this year in the first round of the playoffs where we put up three points, our D would have needed to pitch a shutout to make up for our lack of passing game. 

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Wayne Cubed said:

 

In 22 years, since Jim Kelly retired, a QB hasn't fallen into the Bills lap. It led to a 17 year playoff drought. That's really your plan?

 

Well some have actually.... but we were busy building around our placeholders trying to end the drought instead.  Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr..... they were all in our lap.  

[BuffaloHokie13]

Just now, Batman1876 said:

What demonstrably false things have I presented as facts? I'll also point out that one of those losses was this year in the first round of the playoffs where we put up three points, our D would have needed to pitch a shutout to make up for our lack of passing game. 

really?

14 minutes ago, Batman1876 said:

Our Offense was anemic against playoff teams mostly due to the fact that we had 1 passing TD every 4 games. 

...

As for the rest of your post, your current sample size is 1 game, and has a maximum of 4 over the past 3 years (that's the total number of times we scored 7 or fewer points in the past 49 games...). My sample size is 30 games.

[Batman1876]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Well some have actually.... but we were busy building around our placeholders trying to end the drought instead.  Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr..... they were all in our lap.  

Drafting QBs outside of the first round is so much of a crapshoot that its hard to hold it against a team for not picking the 1 in 30 who ends up being good. 

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Batman1876 said:

Drafting QBs outside of the first round is so much of a crapshoot that its hard to hold it against a team for not picking the 1 in 30 who ends up being good. 

 

Maybe so, but that Wilson and Cousins year for example it was common sense that we needed one.  Fitz had shown enough by that point to know he wasn't a long term answer and we had a need even if it was a developmental guy to sit.  If they had taken one and taken the wrong one then maybe I'd give them a pass.  They were pathologically refusing to pick quarterbacks. The last 2 years we have taken guys I didn't much like in the middle rounds and surprise, surprise, neither was good.  But at least they took them.  To not take a QB in 2012 was frankly indefensible.  

[Where’sLloyd]

With a franchise QB we beat JAX and then who knows. I’m new here and in the camp that they have to get a franchise QB. You’re more in favor of blue chip talents like Marcel  Dareus  and CJ Spiller....than a QB who can lead this team?? That to me is what spells the same failure we have seen time and again.

 

The only thing that really matters is if our front office is right about the QB(s) they like. If he busts then it’s business as usual around here, but if they’re right then we are competitive for the next 10-12 years if not longer. This is the best look we have had a guy who can be a future star at this position since we took the last guy wearing number 12.

 

if you love Jackson or think Mayfield might be available at 12,or at least lower than 5 then I don’t disagree with your line of thought. But if they are sure Darnold is a 10year starter then you have to do what it takes to get him and find ways to fill holes along the way for a couple years. Just my $.02.  For what it’s worth Allen is the guy that scares me off.

[Batman1876]

12 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

really?

...

As for the rest of your post, your current sample size is 1 game, and has a maximum of 4 over the past 3 years (that's the total number of times we scored 7 or fewer points in the past 49 games...). My sample size is 30 games.

My sample size is 7 games  played against playoff opponents last year.  5 of the 7 games we failed to throw a passing TD. We were 2 and 5 in those 7 games. How many deep playoff runs are you making with that kind of passing game? How good would the D have to be to cover that shortcoming? And yeah really if you want to claim it as a fact that I present false statements as fact then support your claim or be a hypocrite. 

Edited April 4, 2018 by Batman1876

[BillsForLyfe]

On 4/3/2018 at 8:57 AM, Domdab99 said:

Moving up is sexy, it's fun, it's what's for dinner these days. But moving up will set the team's growth back three, maybe five years. Possibly longer. This team has so many holes, that to throw away all these picks on a QB who might be good is insanity. 

 

If we can somehow move up and still have 1 2nd and 1 3rd...I'd be willing to listen. But only for Rosen or Mayfield. Trading up for any of the other QBs is insanity. Especially since Jackson has a very good chance of being there at 12. Hell, he has a good chance of being there at 22.

 

I'd rather pick an elite player at 12 - Roquan Smith, Derwin James, Vita Vea....etc. Use the rest of the picks on holes like WR, OL, DL, LB....

 

Throwing away this draft along with a first next next year? No thanks. 

 

From what I am reading we wouldn't have to give up anything next year (Maybe a 4th -6th but IDC on that), So I disagree with this outlook especially now since we finally have the ammo to get a "Top Prospect" at QB. Which Has been our biggest problem. (Couldn't find a QB) I feel we have waited/reached on to many QBs for us not to finally take a chance on a "Top Prospect"  We will still be able to keep our first round next year   and like you say above we will have a whole lot of cap space to spend next year as well.

[BuffaloHokie13]

11 minutes ago, Batman1876 said:

And yeah really if you want to claim it as a fact that I present false statements as fact then support your claim or be a hypocrite. 

I'll quote your exact words for you again I suppose.

41 minutes ago, Batman1876 said:

Our Offense was anemic against playoff teams mostly due to the fact that we had 1 passing TD every 4 games. 

 

I also don't think hypocrite means what you think it means. Everything I have presented to you is based squarely in reality and can be proven with recorded statistics. Care to point me to that time where we had 4 passing TDs in a season?

Edited April 4, 2018 by BuffaloHokie13

[Batman1876]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I'll quote your exact words for you again I suppose.

 

I also don't think hypocrite means what you think it means. Everything I have presented to you is based squarely in reality and can be proven with recorded statistics.

I said or be a hypocrite not you are a hypocrite. And you are right I was being hyperbolic I said once every 4 games and I meant once every 3.5 forgive me. 

[BuffaloHokie13]

Just now, Batman1876 said:

I said or be a hypocrite not you are a hypocrite. And you are right I was being hyperbolic I said once every 4 games and I meant once every 3.5 forgive me. 

So you're trying to present a stat from a 7 games last season and apply it to the past 5 years as a whole?

[maryland-bills-fan]

23 hours ago, Stank_Nasty said:

OP's title is a bit dramatic..... was anyone thinking playoffs after Gilmore and woods walked and they unloaded Watkins and darby?

 

 

Yes.  The "trade up to pick #2 crowd" is saying that we can buy superman,  ignore trading many good veteran players, have little in the way of draft for the next 2 years...... and, baby, we are superbowl bound.     NOT.

[Batman1876]

2 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Yes.  The "trade up to pick #2 crowd" is saying that we can buy superman,  ignore trading many good veteran players, have little in the way of draft for the next 2 years...... and, baby, we are superbowl bound.     NOT.

Strawman argument. No one is saying we can buy superman, they are saying we can buy our best chance at superman. Also we would not necessarily have very little for the next 2 drafts. we have 3 extra picks in the first 3 rounds so even if we trade 5 for one we still only are down 1 pick. 

[maryland-bills-fan]

The cost would be both firsts, a second and a third.

2600 -1200= 1400            trade our #12  first round

1400- 780=  620               trade our #22   first round

620- 370=  250                 trade our #53   second round

250- 265-  done               trade our top of 3rd round

 

that leaves us with no first round pick (other than the QB) and one second and one third.  That sounds good but doesn't fill the holes that are in the roster.

 

 

[Batman1876]

26 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

So you're trying to present a stat from a 7 games last season and apply it to the past 5 years as a whole?

I'm saying that stat is representative of how bad our QB play has been during EJ. Orton, and Tyrod. Its a big reason why we are 7-28 against playoff teams over those 5 years. 

10 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

The cost would be both firsts, a second and a third.

2600 -1200= 1400            trade our #12  first round

1400- 780=  620               trade our #22   first round

620- 370=  250                 trade our #53   second round

250- 265-  done               trade our top of 3rd round

 

that leaves us with no first round pick (other than the QB) and one second and one third.  That sounds good but doesn't fill the holes that are in the roster.

 

 

So we would get 1 first, one second and one third. In other words the normal amount, which you claim is essentially none. So by getting a QB we'll be left with the normal number of picks. I think we'll be better off with the most likely to succeed QB and fill in with other draft picks and FA next year.  Remember any position can be filled in FA QB not so much. 

[Stank_Nasty]

2 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Yes.  The "trade up to pick #2 crowd" is saying that we can buy superman,  ignore trading many good veteran players, have little in the way of draft for the next 2 years...... and, baby, we are superbowl bound.     NOT.

dude...... just whatever man.

[White Linen]

On 4/3/2018 at 11:57 AM, Domdab99 said:

Moving up is sexy, it's fun, it's what's for dinner these days. But moving up will set the team's growth back three, maybe five years. Possibly longer. This team has so many holes, that to throw away all these picks on a QB who might be good is insanity. 

 

If we can somehow move up and still have 1 2nd and 1 3rd...I'd be willing to listen. But only for Rosen or Mayfield. Trading up for any of the other QBs is insanity. Especially since Jackson has a very good chance of being there at 12. Hell, he has a good chance of being there at 22.

 

I'd rather pick an elite player at 12 - Roquan Smith, Derwin James, Vita Vea....etc. Use the rest of the picks on holes like WR, OL, DL, LB....

 

Throwing away this draft along with a first next next year? No thanks. 

 

This opinion is such bunk.  You don't know what the holes are until you have a viable QB.  Then you hear the "QB doesn't fix everything" argument.  No they don't but its those extra few minutes of possession time, those two extra field goals, those few extra first downs,  even when you punt it's pushing the opposing offense a little further back - that make the difference.  It changes how the team looks and plays.  This team isn't going to the playoffs with a LB and WR 2-3 straight years anyway so get a damn QB.

 

Of course it's not that easy to just say get a QB but you have to try.  It could be a very very long time before we have the draft picks to allow us to try like this.  The only reason to not draft a QB is if the one or two you want are gone and you can't find a trade partner, then I'd agree.  The crazier reason, which is nuts, is to fill holes, suck, then draft one next year.  

[KD in CA]

As the Bills have demonstrated, No QB = No playoffs for the next 18 years.

[Domdab99]

3 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

The cost would be both firsts, a second and a third.

2600 -1200= 1400            trade our #12  first round

1400- 780=  620               trade our #22   first round

620- 370=  250                 trade our #53   second round

250- 265-  done               trade our top of 3rd round

 

that leaves us with no first round pick (other than the QB) and one second and one third.  That sounds good but doesn't fill the holes that are in the roster.

 

 

 

 

lol it's going to be more than this

[maryland-bills-fan]

On 4/3/2018 at 3:02 PM, Agent 91 said:

I like Maj but Philly had 3 bona fide qb whisperers on staff. Reich Peterson and Defilippo. Top it off... they won with pseudo journeyman Nick Foles. Philly is, if nothing else, the exception to the rule. I would love to have had their situation but we dont. I dont want anyone in a trade up but Rosen. I would settle for Mayfield. Rosen will need a much better pass pro in front of him though

There are so many "exceptions to the rule".   People winning without a "franchise QB".  People getting NFL starters in the third round. etc.

[maryland-bills-fan]

3 hours ago, Batman1876 said:

I'm saying that stat is representative of how bad our QB play has been during EJ. Orton, and Tyrod. Its a big reason why we are 7-28 against playoff teams over those 5 years. 

So we would get 1 first, one second and one third. In other words the normal amount, which you claim is essentially none. So by getting a QB we'll be left with the normal number of picks. I think we'll be better off with the most likely to succeed QB and fill in with other draft picks and FA next year.  Remember any position can be filled in FA QB not so much. 

 

You can not expect scrubs from other teams to beat the best players.  I think that the house cleaning (Darby, Watkins etc) was done to start over with a different core of young players.  You have to get those players in place before a QB will make a difference.

[Big Turk]

On 4/3/2018 at 11:57 AM, Domdab99 said:

Moving up is sexy, it's fun, it's what's for dinner these days. But moving up will set the team's growth back three, maybe five years. Possibly longer. This team has so many holes, that to throw away all these picks on a QB who might be good is insanity. 

 

If we can somehow move up and still have 1 2nd and 1 3rd...I'd be willing to listen. But only for Rosen or Mayfield. Trading up for any of the other QBs is insanity. Especially since Jackson has a very good chance of being there at 12. Hell, he has a good chance of being there at 22.

 

I'd rather pick an elite player at 12 - Roquan Smith, Derwin James, Vita Vea....etc. Use the rest of the picks on holes like WR, OL, DL, LB....

 

Throwing away this draft along with a first next next year? No thanks. 

 

And im sure Eagles fans said the same thing

[Jauronimo]

I admire OP's guts to start this thread 2 years after the Iggles, fresh off a super bowl victory, and the Rams, who are now looking like early super bowl favorites, traded up to get QBs and immediately transformed their franchises.  Most guys try to keep their heads down and hide their stupidity but OP shouted it from the mountain top.

[akm0404]

You need two things to be perennial Super Bowl contenders:

 

A coach and a quarterback. 

 

Without that, your best bet is to fluke a random Wild Card berth every once in a while. 

 

How about we try to lock that up and go from there?

[Batman1876]

2 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

 

You can not expect scrubs from other teams to beat the best players.  I think that the house cleaning (Darby, Watkins etc) was done to start over with a different core of young players.  You have to get those players in place before a QB will make a difference.

You draft the QB when he’s available not when everything else is in place. Who was the last Elite QB prospect the bills had an opportunity at? It’s 4th and One  your down by 5 Time running out do you punt and hope to get it back knowing the other team has a good chance to kill the clock or do you take your opportunity to win the game now? I take the opportunity I have not the opportunity I hope to get later. 

Edited April 4, 2018 by Batman1876

[Moulds 808080]

Or we could miss PLAYOFFS for 18 years if we dont get a QB.

 

[#34fan]

1 hour ago, Jauronimo said:

I admire OP's guts to start this thread 2 years after the Iggles, fresh off a super bowl victory, and the Rams, who are now looking like early super bowl favorites, traded up to get QBs and immediately transformed their franchises. 

 

Immediately transformed? -Who comes up with this bullsh_t?

 

Both teams had foundations in place before their QB's ever arrived... But, by all means, ignore the fact that the Rams tried drafting a savior, in the form of Sam Bradford, back in 2010.... -How'd that work out?... Any astute observer can point to a series of moves, (and eventualities) OTHER than Jared Goff that led to the Rams success.

The taking of Aaron Donald in RD' 1 of the 2014 draft was a foundation move that would pay dividends later on... Drafting Jared Goff in '16 PLUS taking 2 TE's in that same draft, was also proof the Rams were thinking "right"... Perhaps the biggest turning point, was the firing of HC Jeff Fisher in week 16 o the 2016 season! -New ideas flowed in with the hiring of McVay, and the departure of OC Rob Boras ( current Bills TE coach) for Matt LeFleur.. But the largest contributing factor in the LA Rams success, was the decline of the ENTIRE NFC West!  Time finally caught up with the Seahawks as they failed to field a top 10 defense for the first time since '2012!  L.A. was able to split with the Niners (rested starters wk. 17)  and Seahawks, plus issue beat-downs to ARIZ in both games. Contributing to this laughable schedule strength was the sub-500  Giants Texans, and Colts, plus the non-playoff Cowboys!  LeFleur is now gone and the Niners seem back on track, so let's see what '18 Brings...

 

Then there's the Eagles deception... -A fake narrative of the process that led them to the Superbowl... PHI only added a top draft QB when they had solid help at TE, OT, and WR.. Not to mention role players at DT, LB, and DE on defense... -Does anyone see anything like that around the Bills roster? - I sure as hell Don't!... If anything we helped the RAMS by trading them our two best WR's! ... The Eagles then proceeded to re-inforce that foundation by doubling down on positions like TE, RB, WR and even Quarterback! 

-In the end, it wasn't Philly's shiny, new, 2016 #1 overall pick that led the way, but a near-washout, journeyman 3rd rounder!  So, what's the REAL lesson here?

 

Some of you are so stoked at the prospect of BUF finally drafting a top 3 QB, that you've completely taken leave of your senses.

 

[Iamkrgr]

there really is no right answer. I can get behind a number of scenarios this draft. 

 

Scenario 1: Trade up to #2 at whatever cost. This way you pretty much guarantee you get THE guy you want. Beane's tenure as Bills GM will be defined by this selection. Ideal scenario here is that you find a QB for the next 10 years. 

 

Scenario 2: Darnold, Rosen and Mayfield are all gone 1-2-3. No chance to move up unless you value Allen enough to do so(i don't personally). You take BPA at 12 and so on. Possibly get a QB late in rd 2(Lauletta, White). Could take Lamar Jackson if that is who Beane wants to hitch his wagon to. Could really solidify other positions here(LB, DL, OL). 

 

Scenario 3: Mayfield drops to 12. Unlikely scenario but it is possible that a lot of this QB craze is just posturing by teams ahead of the bills trying to drive up the price. 

 

Scenario 4: Move up to 7ish to draft a QB that drops if you think another team might look to jump ahead of the Bills. Or the Dolphins might take the guy. 

 

It could work out where we don't end up with a QB until the end of the 2nd/early 3rd. Can't hold it against Beane if there are no willing trade partners. Overpaying is one thing, but getting downright robbed doing so is another. The last thing i want is them giving up a ton of assets for the 4th best QB. Obviously whoever they pick i'll support but it'd be a tough pill to swallow to give up all those assets to get to #5 and pick Allen.