Peter King MMQB - Lot's of good stuff, Colts Trading 6 and a New Beane Q&A

[Reed83HOF]

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/03/19/kirk-cousins-minnesota-vikings-free-agency-guaranteed-contract-mmqb-peter-king

 

TL;DR = got to point #4 on this list (about trading up for a QB)

 

1.) Bills wanted McCown:

 

But Buffalo also was seriously interested in McCown, so the Jets put their best contractual foot forward there and ensured they’d keep the trusted veteran who played so well last year, at 38.

 

2.) Colts aren't done moving down, 70 starters in the draft & we are a partner to move to 6

 

Colts aren’t done trading yet. After dealing from three to six, I could see them moving down one more time before the April 26 first round. GM Chris Ballard said as much to his team’s website Saturday, and I can add a confirmation to that. Ballard’s going to try.

 

Ballard got a lot of “attaboy” calls/texts over the weekend, and rightly so. I had one GM tell me his team has about 70 players on its draft board rated as starter-quality, which strikes me as about right judging how teams have told me they’re judging this draft.

 

The Colts very much need to maximize this draft. It’s likely their roster is the weakest in the rising AFC South. Ballard knows he needs quantity in this draft. That’s why if he could turn the sixth pick into something in the 10 to 12 range and add another second-rounder, I believe he’d do it. At six, he’d likely have a chance at pass-rusher Bradley Chubb or guard Quenton Nelson. At 11, let’s say, he’d have a chance at a desperately needed rangy linebacker like Roquan Smith or Tremaine Edmunds. A second trade would mean Ballard would have turned the third overall pick into five players who would have a chance to start from this one trade alone.

 

Colts’ picks in the top four rounds now: 6, 36, 37, 49, 67, 104. If I were Ballard, I might trade down from 6 to Buffalo at 12 if the Bills would deal the 53rd overall pick and maybe the 96th pick as well—seeing that the price for a quarterback is more of a premium. But of course, this is probably a night-of-the-draft deal, because the Bills would have to see a quarterback they’d want here.

 

3.) He likes what the Bills did

 

Free agency is a tortuous process, because even when you think you’ve made a great deal, you’ve got this feeling deep down: What if the money spoils this guy? Or what if we’re overrating him after a small sample size?

 

So take this with caution, Bills Mafia. But your general manager, Brandon Beane, had a good week, from my view of it. To recap: he got the first pick in the third round for a quarterback, Tyrod Taylor, he was clearly ready to move on from; Beane also paid interesting young quarterback A.J. McCarron for two years what the Jets paid Josh McCown for one ($10 million); and Beane gambled that coach Sean McDermott can make talented but meh defensive tackle Star Lotulelei (five years, $50 million) shine again. At the same time, Beane was trying to keep his promise to owner Kim and Terry Pegula: fix the bloated salary cap he’d taken over 10 months ago. He’d do it, he vowed, after two seasons, and so part of his decisions this year included pinching pennies so he could clean up the cap by the opening of the 2019 league year.

 

I spoke with Beane on Friday afternoon about the big decisions he and coach Sean McDermott had made.

MMQB: You got Cleveland to take all of Tyrod Taylor’s salary, and got the first pick in the third round. How?

Beane: “We wanted to find a spot for him, not to just put him somewhere. We were open and honest with him and his agent. Sometimes these situations can get salty, but here, everybody wanted to do the right thing and not be confrontation. Getting the 65th pick was huge. Patience was the key. I am very happy how it worked out for the Bills and for Tyrod and the financial part was a part of it. When it’s all said and done, we’re going to have about $45 million in dead money this year. That was part of my plan—to eat all of it, or as much as we could, this year.”

MMQB: You waited out the quarterback market, from the looks of it, and got McCarron for good value—two years, $10 million.

Beane: “We did due diligence there. Every dollar we spend there is a dollar less we can spend somewhere else. We didn’t want to get into chase mode. We had different guys we thought would fit, A.J. being one of them. One word we heard over and over from people who had coached him or known him. like Hue Jackson: competitor. That was music to my ears. He’ll fit here.”

MMQB: Star Lotulelei for medium defensive tackle price—was he a target from the beginning?

Beane: “I was part of the crew that drafted him in Carolina. One word for him: selfless. Luke Kuechly will rave about Star, because he allowed Luke to run free. For us, I believe Star can be a two-and-a-half-down player, playing some third downs.”

 

4.) Will we move up again

 

MMQB: Looks like you have the ammo to move up in the draft again and get one of the quarterbacks. Will you trade again?

Beane: “The truth? Most of these quarterbacks I’ve only spent 15 minutes with. [At the combine, each team can meet with prospects for a maximum of 15 minutes per player.] I haven’t spent enough time to have an opinion about any of them yet, honestly. I actually sent a little note to our [scouts] yesterday. We got six weeks to get our board together. I am not there yet, knowing if we can or will move up again. I want Sean to get to know all of them. We’re just keeping an open mind. Where we’re at, we’ve got the picks, we've got the draft capital. I’m not ready to pull the trigger.”

Edited March 19, 2018 by Reed83HOF

[Virgil]

Good read. Thank you 

[thunderingsquid]

Thanks!

[Reed83HOF]

2 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Good read. Thank you 

NP & it is...

 

Trade from 12 to 6 with a second rounder sign  me right up...Here you go NYG 6, 22, 65 and whatever else

 

Sean meet Josh, Josh meet Sean you guys are going to get to know each other very well over the next 15 years....

[Inigo Montoya]

It would be great if our guy dropped to 6 and we could trade up and get him at that spot.  I would rather wait and see what happens at 6 than spend all of our draft capital on trading up to 2.  There is also a smaller chance that we can trade up to 4 with the Browns if they are game.  I'd be OK with that too if the cost wasn't too high and our guy is sitting there.  

 

I'm sure Beane will be on the phone with the Brown's and Colt's GMs repeatedly between now and draft night building possible frameworks for trades.  I'm sure he'll be calling Elway too to get a sense of what they're willing to do.  Any trade up the Bills make will have to be predicated on who is left on the board when the 4th, 5th, and 6th picks roll around.  No way Beane deals before the draft, he won't pull the trigger on any trade up until he knows which QB falls out of the top three.

[NickelCity]

21 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

NP & it is...

 

Trade from 12 to 6 with a second rounder sign  me right up...Here you go NYG 6, 22, 65 and whatever else

 

Sean meet Josh, Josh meet Sean you guys are going to get to know each other very well over the next 15 years....

 

As long as that's Josh Rosen.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

32 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

It would be great if our guy dropped to 6 and we could trade up and get him at that spot.  I would rather wait and see what happens at 6 than spend all of our draft capital on trading up to 2.  There is also a smaller chance that we can trade up to 4 with the Browns if they are game.  I'd be OK with that too if the cost wasn't too high and our guy is sitting there.  

 

I'm sure Beane will be on the phone with the Brown's and Colt's GMs repeatedly between now and draft night building possible frameworks for trades.  I'm sure he'll be calling Elway too to get a sense of what they're willing to do.  Any trade up the Bills make will have to be predicated on who is left on the board when the 4th, 5th, and 6th picks roll around.  No way Beane deals before the draft, he won't pull the trigger on any trade up until he knows which QB falls out of the top three.

 

This.

 

Plus he can't say he wants to move up again as this would give the upper hand to our trade partner.

 

 

[Estro]

BTW Peter King make reference to the Jets perhaps having their eye on Baker, including the final haiku he wrote in the article:

 

"Not sure it’s true, but
many around league see Jets
focused on Baker."

 

-Peter King

 

Intersting, as I don't think Baker is the guy the Bills have their eye on.  The next obvious question becomes what Josh do the Giants have their eye on.....Allen or Rosen?

 

If it's Allen I think the Bills are in business to move up to get Rosen......if the Giants, otoh, like Rosen, I think the Bills miss out on their guy.  I just don't think the Bills would like Allen as a prospect, due to his inaccuracy.

 

Interesting about Baker and the Jets, though, as most right now seem to be speculating they traded up for Allen or Rosen.  King thinks differently.

[Inigo Montoya]

Baker would be a good fit for the Jets in the tradition of Broadway Joe.  You don't want to draft a shrinking violet in NYC.  I think that's why Eli is a bit of a meh QB in NYC despite the Super Bowl win.  He just doesn't have a big enough personality for that city and those fans.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

35 minutes ago, Estro said:

BTW Peter King make reference to the Jets perhaps having their eye on Baker, including the final haiku he wrote in the article:

 

"Not sure it’s true, but
many around league see Jets
focused on Baker."

 

-Peter King

 

Intersting, as I don't think Baker is the guy the Bills have their eye on.  The next obvious question becomes what Josh do the Giants have their eye on.....Allen or Rosen?

 

If it's Allen I think the Bills are in business to move up to get Rosen......if the Giants, otoh, like Rosen, I think the Bills miss out on their guy.  I just don't think the Bills would like Allen as a prospect, due to his inaccuracy.

 

Interesting about Baker and the Jets, though, as most right now seem to be speculating they traded up for Allen or Rosen.  King thinks differently.

 

If the Jets pick Mayfield I will puke.

 

 

[bills522]

The Mayfield/Jets combo just feels like a match to me, I think he'd love the big city attention...now whether he'd like the attention over actually playing well? ...I'd hope so

[N.Y. Orangeman]

One of the most interesting points in this piece IMO is the fact that Beane admits he isn't ready to move up yet.  Unless he is lying (which I doubt), we weren't beat out for the Jets pick.  

[PIZ]

Awesome read.  Thanks for posting.  So, if we don't trade up, then it's because the price was too high or they didn't think any of the guys were worth trading up for.  I honestly think when it's all said and done, that McDermott and Beane are going to target Mason Rudolph.  It's not what many on here want to hear, but he fits their idea of a QB.  You'll start hearing about Rudolph's stock rising, even though it's always been high with the NFL guys.  Wouldn't surprise me if the Bills move up a little to get him.

[jr1]

45 million in dead cap. Jesus

[CSBill]

1 hour ago, N.Y. Orangeman said:

One of the most interesting points in this piece IMO is the fact that Beane admits he isn't ready to move up yet.  Unless he is lying (which I doubt), we weren't beat out for the Jets pick.  

 

Added to that, while I'm sure he is always going to be very coy in expressing his true thoughts, is that he said he has not made a decision on the QBs, or that they really don't have their draft board built yet. No doubt, what happens in Free Agency influences that. So, apparently with the bulk of FA completed, the next six weeks will be focused on the draft. Personally, I'm hoping they hang on to their picks and get six potential starters in the first three rounds.

Edited March 19, 2018 by CSBill

[Doc Brown]

1 hour ago, N.Y. Orangeman said:

One of the most interesting points in this piece IMO is the fact that Beane admits he isn't ready to move up yet.  Unless he is lying (which I doubt), we weren't beat out for the Jets pick.  

I still don't get why the Colts were so quick to trade that pick considering they could've gotten even more if the Jets and Bills (or the Cardinals/Broncos/Dolphins) could've been involved in a bidding war to move up to that #3 spot as the draft approached.  I give credit to the Jets though as they put any team trying to trade up in the top 5 to draft a quarterback in a tough position.

[Cripple Creek]

5 hours ago, Reed83HOF said:

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/03/19/kirk-cousins-minnesota-vikings-free-agency-guaranteed-contract-mmqb-peter-king

 

Good stuff, thanks.

[TPS]

An important point I took from this, this is a damn good draft overall--70 potential starters. The Bills have 5 picks in the top 65, so trading up this year has a greater cost than a "normal" year. If they trade up, They better love the guy because it  could cost them 4 starters at other positions.

 

Damned if you do, damned if you don't....

[PIZ]

5 hours ago, Reed83HOF said:

I had one GM tell me his team has about 70 players on its draft board rated as starter-quality, which strikes me as about right judging how teams have told me they’re judging this draft.

 

This would be a reason to hold on to as many picks as possible.  5 picks in the top 70.  We could use 5 starters.

 

Round 1: 21, 22 (from Kansas City)

Round 2: 53, 56 (from Los Angeles Rams)

Round 3: 65 (from Cleveland), 

 

 

[mannc]

5 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

It would be great if our guy dropped to 6 and we could trade up and get him at that spot.  I would rather wait and see what happens at 6 than spend all of our draft capital on trading up to 2.  There is also a smaller chance that we can trade up to 4 with the Browns if they are game.  I'd be OK with that too if the cost wasn't too high and our guy is sitting there.  

 

I'm sure Beane will be on the phone with the Brown's and Colt's GMs repeatedly between now and draft night building possible frameworks for trades.  I'm sure he'll be calling Elway too to get a sense of what they're willing to do.  Any trade up the Bills make will have to be predicated on who is left on the board when the 4th, 5th, and 6th picks roll around.  No way Beane deals before the draft, he won't pull the trigger on any trade up until he knows which QB falls out of the top three.

Completely agree.  To me, one of the most interesting things about the article was the consensus (sort of) that there are about 70 starter quality guys in this draft.  With five picks in the first 65,  the Bills are in great position. I hope Beane is patient and they don’t squander it. 

[MrEpsYtown]

5 hours ago, NickelCity said:

 

As long as that's Josh Rosen.

 

He did say they would keep an open mind. 

 

4 hours ago, Estro said:

BTW Peter King make reference to the Jets perhaps having their eye on Baker, including the final haiku he wrote in the article:

 

"Not sure it’s true, but
many around league see Jets
focused on Baker."

 

-Peter King

 

Intersting, as I don't think Baker is the guy the Bills have their eye on.  The next obvious question becomes what Josh do the Giants have their eye on.....Allen or Rosen?

 

If it's Allen I think the Bills are in business to move up to get Rosen......if the Giants, otoh, like Rosen, I think the Bills miss out on their guy.  I just don't think the Bills would like Allen as a prospect, due to his inaccuracy.

 

Interesting about Baker and the Jets, though, as most right now seem to be speculating they traded up for Allen or Rosen.  King thinks differently.

 

If the Giants won't trade because they want Allen, and Jets want Baker, we can get Rosen at 4 or even later. We would have to jump the Broncos, or know the Broncos don't want him. 

 

Now if the Giants don't want a quarterback and the Jets want Baker, and the Broncos want Allen, we really don't have to trade at all, just have to be weary of a team like the Cards jumping us. 

 

If we want someone other than Rosen, looks like we might be out of luck. I suppose this is why Beane is waiting so all of this sorts out. 

[BuffaloBill]

The more I read about Beane the more I like.  The QB situation is one that may take a little bit of luck but he has a plan and he is not over reaching.  Next year with the rise in the cap they should be in excellent shape.  The roster is being rebuilt.  It’s high;y likely that at least two very high quality starters will come out of this draft and if the Bills choose wisely it could be four.  Add them to a solid though not spectacular draft class last year and you have the makings of a very solid rebuild.  It’s now really about the QB.

[Don't stop billievein]

1 hour ago, Doc Brown said:

I still don't get why the Colts were so quick to trade that pick considering they could've gotten even more if the Jets and Bills (or the Cardinals/Broncos/Dolphins) could've been involved in a bidding war to move up to that #3 spot as the draft approached.  I give credit to the Jets though as they put any team trying to trade up in the top 5 to draft a quarterback in a tough position.

They didn’t want to move down out of the top 10. 

[elltrain22]

I think, even guys like Sheffter/Rappaport/etc, all the guys with all the inside info, don't really know what these GM's are thinking for sure. Some of these GM's, like Beane, may not have closure about their decision. What makes sense though, is the Bills have almost hand shake deals  with another team at spots 2/3/4/or 5, but they are being patient, methodical, and trying to get the most value out of this decision. 

 

Beane is way to smart and methodical to give up "the farm" to get his franchise QB. He's going to try to spin this, as best he can, and try not to give up as much as he has to, unless he has to. 

 

At the end of the day, the only ones that know are God and Brandon Beane!!

[jimmy10]

So are we backing off on FIRE BEANE NOW? Maybe put him on some sort of performance improvement plan instead?

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

1 hour ago, jr1 said:

45 million in dead cap. Jesus

Thank you Whaley for being useless.

[Nihilarian]

Good stuff and thanks for posting Reed83HOF.

 

Hearing from Yolo on the Bills giving up so much to move to #2 to draft Josh Rosen now appears like this is all him and what he likes and not thankfully what Beane, McD want in the draft.

 

If I'm these men looking at the quality/quantity of players in this years draft class and knowing that the hit rate on finding a starting franchise QB is about 33%.  I don't think there is a QB in this years draft class giving up three firsts for, much less more than that.

 

Just some food for thought that the last time three QBs went in the first three picks was in 1999. The first overall pick went to Cleveland, Tim Couch. The second pick was Donovan McNabb to Philly. The Third pick was Cincy Akili Smith to Cincy. 

 

 

[Guest K-GunJimKelly12]

42 minutes ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

Thank you Whaley for being useless.

Cue the Whaley apologists.

[Helpmenow]

No 38 year old qb from jets please. Would have been a bad move

[DriveFor1Outta5]

Beane on the QB’s “I haven’t spent enough time to have an opinion about any of them yet, honestly”. I’m calling BS on this one. 

[Chuck Wagon]

Screw the Colts.

 

If they want to move down again they can have pick #97, that's it.  Only way trading to that pick makes sense is part of a plan with the Giants already in place.

[BuffaloRebound]

6 minutes ago, DriveFor1Outta5 said:

Beane on the QB’s “I haven’t spent enough time to have an opinion about any of them yet, honestly”. I’m calling BS on this one. 

 

I do actually believe Beane wasn't ready to get into the top 5 for one of these QB's, hence the Jets-Colts deal.  Beane still has the 12 to 6 to 2 route when he is ready.  

[Chuck Wagon]

1 hour ago, Don't stop billievein said:

They didn’t want to move down out of the top 10. 

 

They apparently want to move down again with us being a target....

 

Likely reality is the Jets simply offered the best package.

[aristocrat]

So beane has only met with each guy for 15 minutes and is being patient. Jets the same and super aggressive already. 

[YoloinOhio]

24 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

Good stuff and thanks for posting Reed83HOF.

 

Hearing from Yolo on the Bills giving up so much to move to #2 to draft Josh Rosen now appears like this is all him and what he likes and not thankfully what Beane, McD want in the draft.

 

If I'm these men looking at the quality/quantity of players in this years draft class and knowing that the hit rate on finding a starting franchise QB is about 33%.  I don't think there is a QB in this years draft class giving up three firsts for, much less more than that.

 

Just some food for thought that the last time three QBs went in the first three picks was in 1999. The first overall pick went to Cleveland, Tim Couch. The second pick was Donovan McNabb to Philly. The Third pick was Cincy Akili Smith to Cincy. 

 

 

Oh it’s definitely me. I have no idea what the Bills are going to do. I’m just predicting what I think they will do with a healthy dose of what I will hope they will do! 

[JinxedBill1]

I like Beane.  Let the draft come to you.

 

TBH I think they only think Darnold is worth trading up for.

[MrEpsYtown]

There is probably the framework of a deal worked out with either the Giants or Browns at 4. Trading up at this point is just rash. I mean what if the Jets jumped up for Allen and he tears his ACL or something in training? You still taking him at 3? It's way too early to make this aggressive of a move. Knowing the Jets they probably traded to 3 for Vita Vea. 

Edited March 19, 2018 by MrEpsYtown

[Putin]

1 hour ago, jimmy10 said:

So are we backing off on FIRE BEANE NOW? Maybe put him on some sort of performance improvement plan instead?

It all depends , what if Arizona moves up to #2 ? I’m pretty sure the pitchforks will be out in numbers !!!  

[bobobonators]

2 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

I still don't get why the Colts were so quick to trade that pick considering they could've gotten even more if the Jets and Bills (or the Cardinals/Broncos/Dolphins) could've been involved in a bidding war to move up to that #3 spot as the draft approached.  I give credit to the Jets though as they put any team trying to trade up in the top 5 to draft a quarterback in a tough position.

If you’re the Colts, one in the hand is better than two in the bush. They got a lot for that trade down. 

Edited March 19, 2018 by bobobonators

[Chuck Wagon]

11 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

There is probably the framework of a deal worked out with either the Giants or Browns at 4. Trading up at this point is just rash. I mean what if the Jets jumped up for Allen and he tears his ACL or something in training? You still taking him at 3? It's way too early to make this aggressive of a move. Knowing the Jets they probably traded to 3 for Vita Vea. 

 

 

Jets are going to take Baker, he's going to get angry about McCown / Bridgewater getting first team reps, start partying hard, let the fame get to his head and end up in the XFL.