Rigotz Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 (edited) I've heard a lot of Bills talking heads raving about 2nd round WR success -- Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown, etc. It's a hot topic with the podcasting community as everyone seems to be laser focused at WR in round 1 or 2. So, I was curious to research the hit rate of WR in 1st round vs 2nd round the past several years. The results might surprise you. I marked "++" for plus starters each year, which I would define as a top 32 wideout. The past 2 seasons are TBD, so I started in 2021. Totals: 11 out of 28 first round picks ended up being plus starters (39%). 6 out of 33 second round picks ended up being plus starters (18%). 2021: 1st Round Ja'Marr Chase ++ Jaylen Waddle ++ DeVonta Smith ++ Kadarius Toney Rashod Bateman 2nd Round Elijah Moore Rondale Moore D'Wayne Eskridge Tutu Atwell Terrace Marshall Jr 2020: 1st Round Henry Ruggs Jerry Jeudy CeeDee Lamb ++ Jalen Reagor Justin Jefferson ++ Brandon Aiyuk ++ 2nd Round Tee Higgins ++ Michael Pittman ++ Laviska Shenault KJ Hamler Chase Claypool Van Jefferson Denzel Mims 2019: 1st Round Marquise Brown N'Keal Harry 2nd Round Deebo Samuel ++ AJ Brown ++ Mecole Hardman JJ Arcega-Whiteside Parris Campbell Andy Isabella DK Metcalf ++ 2018: 1st Round: DJ Moore ++ Calvin Ridley 2nd Round: Courtland Sutton Dante Pettis Christian Kirk Anthony MIller James Washintgon DJ Chark 2017: 1st Round: Corey Davis Mike Williams ++ John Ross 2nd Round: Zay Jones Curtis Samuel JuJu Smith-Schuster 2016: 1st Round: Corey Coleman Will Fuller Josh Doctson Laquon Treadwell 2nd Round: Sterling Shepard Michael Thomas +? Tyler Boyd 2015: 1st Round: Amari Cooper ++ Kevin White DeVante Parker Nelson Agholor Breshad Perriman Phillip Dorsett 2nd Round: Devin Smith Dorial Green-Beckham So ... when you hear the talking heads describing 1st and 2nd round as both being a hot bed for WR talent historically, this is just recency bias due to a few good players coming from the 2020 and 2019 first and second round. There have been been A LOT of JAGs mixed in as well... but maybe they forgot. Hope you enjoy the analysis. Edited April 10 by Rigotz 11 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 So…….it’s almost hopeless. Great! 😂 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aussie Joe Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 There are a few names on the failures list that a lot of posters here have banged the table for at the time … 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warriorspikes51 Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 Great post, thanks for taking the time!! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rigotz Posted April 10 Author Share Posted April 10 5 minutes ago, Augie said: So…….it’s almost hopeless. Great! 😂 Not my intended point! It's a great WR class this year and perfect time to take one in Round 1 or 2. My only objection is this point I seem to hear constantly on Bills podcasts that state "there's a ton of value available in Round 2." That doesn't seem accurate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoonerBillsFan Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 This is why we must hit on the RIGHT WR, not a name or what talking heads feel is a great WR. 1 minute ago, Rigotz said: Not my intended point! It's a great WR class this year and perfect time to take one in Round 1 or 2. My only objection is this point I seem to hear constantly on Bills podcasts that state "there's a ton of value available in Round 2." That doesn't seem accurate. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gunsgoodtime Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 4 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said: There are a few names on the failures list that a lot of posters here have banged the table for at the time … I will never actively root to trade up for a Wr again after I pounded the table for Sammy Watkins 7 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Rigotz said: Not my intended point! It's a great WR class this year and perfect time to take one in Round 1 or 2. My only objection is this point I seem to hear constantly on Bills podcasts that state "there's a ton of value available in Round 2." That doesn't seem accurate. I’m sorry, I understand. That is why each year is unique, and they say this one is rich and deep. Having said that, there will probably be just more swinging and more missing than usual. It’s definitely a crap shoot. . Edited April 10 by Augie 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aussie Joe Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 Just now, Gunsgoodtime said: I will never actively root to trade up for a Wr again after I pounded the table for Sammy Watkins I hear ya man … gotta take more shots .., not less 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Watkins101 Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 (edited) 20 minutes ago, Rigotz said: I've heard a lot of Bills talking heads raving about 2nd round WR success -- Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown, etc. It's a hot topic with the podcasting community as everyone seems to be laser focused at WR in round 1 or 2. So, I was curious to research the hit rate of WR in 1st round vs 2nd round the past several years. The results might surprise you. I marked "++" for plus starters each year, which I would define as a top 32 wideout. The past 2 seasons are TBD, so I started in 2021. Totals: 11 out of 28 first round picks ended up being plus starters (39%). 6 out of 33 second round picks ended up being plus starters (18%). 2021: 1st Round Ja'Marr Chase ++ Jaylen Waddle ++ DeVonta Smith ++ Kadarius Toney Rashod Bateman 2nd Round Elijah Moore Rondale Moore D'Wayne Eskridge Tutu Atwell Terrace Marshall Jr 2020: 1st Round Henry Ruggs Jerry Jeudy CeeDee Lamb ++ Jalen Reagor Justin Jefferson ++ Brandon Aiyuk ++ 2nd Round Tee Higgins ++ Michael Pittman ++ Laviska Shenault KJ Hamler Chase Claypool Van Jefferson Denzel Mims 2019: 1st Round Marquise Brown N'Keal Harry 2nd Round Deebo Samuel ++ AJ Brown ++ Mecole Hardman JJ Arcega-Whiteside Parris Campbell Andy Isabella DK Metcalf ++ 2018: 1st Round: DJ Moore ++ Calvin Ridley 2nd Round: Courtland Sutton Dante Pettis Christian Kirk Anthony MIller James Washintgon DJ Chark 2017: 1st Round: Corey Davis Mike Williams ++ John Ross 2nd Round: Zay Jones Curtis Samuel JuJu Smith-Schuster 2016: 1st Round: Corey Coleman Will Fuller Josh Doctson Laquon Treadwell 2nd Round: Sterling Shepard Michael Thomas +? Tyler Boyd 2015: 1st Round: Amari Cooper ++ Kevin White DeVante Parker Nelson Agholor Breshad Perriman Phillip Dorsett 2nd Round: Devin Smith Dorial Green-Beckham So ... when you hear the talking heads describing 1st and 2nd round as both being a hot bed for WR talent historically, this is just recency bias due to a few good players coming from the 2020 and 2019 first and second round. There have been been A LOT of JAGs mixed in as well... but maybe they forgot. Hope you enjoy the analysis. Your grading seems a little arbitrary to me. For example, Mike Williams has ++ despite Juju Smirth Schuster having more catches and touchdowns in the same career length. Cortland Sutton is also on pace to pass Mike Williams. Michael Thomas only a +? Despite being a top 3 receiver the first 4 years of his career. Edited April 10 by Watkins101 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warriorspikes51 Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 (edited) So my take away from this thread is: we trade up for BTJ & trade our 2025 1st to get back into the round for ________ (insert favorite choice) 😎😂 Please God, let us have Nabers AND BTJ?! 🤯Allen A-BOMB offense. 28 & Spencer Brown to LV for 13 13, 128, 2025 2nd, 3rd to LAC/NYG 6/7 60, 2025 1st, 2nd, 5th to SEA for 16 😈 Edited April 10 by Warriorspikes51 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beck Water Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 (edited) I used slightly different methodology (top-20 WR and looking at whether they were top-20 for 3, 2, or 1 year) and a slightly different time window (the last 3 years) Just a little note that a top-32 WR would get a lot of posters here saying "not good enough" Conclusion: So, of 28 WR who have been top-20 for at least 1 of the past 3 years: 39% from Rd 1 (5 top-10, 1 top half, 5 bottom half) 25% from Rd 2 21% from Rd 3 4% from Rd 4 11% from Rd 5 Then, I used a different methodology using pro-football-reference wAV statistic, and looking at drafts from 2017-2023. I wasn't looking at hit rate here though, but at success vs. draft pick order. Edited April 10 by Beck Water 5 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nedboy7 Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 Just draft the next Diggs in the 5th. Problem solved. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackFergy Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 Pretty sure this was already covered by BeckWater, but have at it. Never enough WR threads. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 Tyler Boyd and DeVante Parker aren't hits? Christian Kirk has been pretty good too. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gonzo1105 Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 Maybe I’m dumb but I didn’t read but what is the criteria for a hit vs a fail Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rigotz Posted April 11 Author Share Posted April 11 2 hours ago, Watkins101 said: Your grading seems a little arbitrary to me. For example, Mike Williams has ++ despite Juju Smirth Schuster having more catches and touchdowns in the same career length. Cortland Sutton is also on pace to pass Mike Williams. Michael Thomas only a +? Despite being a top 3 receiver the first 4 years of his career. I debated Michael Thomas being a ++ but he’s on waivers right now and generally an afterthought in Free Agency. The same can be said about JuJu… signed to a cheap deal with KC and a cheap deal with the Pats. Courtland Sutton is your best case… but again, top 32? If you think any of these guys are currently top 32 receivers, go right ahead and add another plus next to their name. I don’t think the teams who drafted them are currently taking a victory lap. 16 minutes ago, MJS said: Tyler Boyd and DeVante Parker aren't hits? Christian Kirk has been pretty good too. Top 32 WR. In other words, are their teams thrilled with the production they got with their 1st round / 2nd round pick? With each of those players, I’m not sure I’d agree that their teams are thrilled … as they weren’t (or likely won’t be) re-signed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimBob2232 Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 I wonder how 6th and 7th rounders fare....I feel like its almost as good - but maybe the exceptions are blinding me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobobonators Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 2 hours ago, Rigotz said: I've heard a lot of Bills talking heads raving about 2nd round WR success -- Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown, etc. It's a hot topic with the podcasting community as everyone seems to be laser focused at WR in round 1 or 2. So, I was curious to research the hit rate of WR in 1st round vs 2nd round the past several years. The results might surprise you. I marked "++" for plus starters each year, which I would define as a top 32 wideout. The past 2 seasons are TBD, so I started in 2021. Totals: 11 out of 28 first round picks ended up being plus starters (39%). 6 out of 33 second round picks ended up being plus starters (18%). 2021: 1st Round Ja'Marr Chase ++ Jaylen Waddle ++ DeVonta Smith ++ Kadarius Toney Rashod Bateman 2nd Round Elijah Moore Rondale Moore D'Wayne Eskridge Tutu Atwell Terrace Marshall Jr 2020: 1st Round Henry Ruggs Jerry Jeudy CeeDee Lamb ++ Jalen Reagor Justin Jefferson ++ Brandon Aiyuk ++ 2nd Round Tee Higgins ++ Michael Pittman ++ Laviska Shenault KJ Hamler Chase Claypool Van Jefferson Denzel Mims 2019: 1st Round Marquise Brown N'Keal Harry 2nd Round Deebo Samuel ++ AJ Brown ++ Mecole Hardman JJ Arcega-Whiteside Parris Campbell Andy Isabella DK Metcalf ++ 2018: 1st Round: DJ Moore ++ Calvin Ridley 2nd Round: Courtland Sutton Dante Pettis Christian Kirk Anthony MIller James Washintgon DJ Chark 2017: 1st Round: Corey Davis Mike Williams ++ John Ross 2nd Round: Zay Jones Curtis Samuel JuJu Smith-Schuster 2016: 1st Round: Corey Coleman Will Fuller Josh Doctson Laquon Treadwell 2nd Round: Sterling Shepard Michael Thomas +? Tyler Boyd 2015: 1st Round: Amari Cooper ++ Kevin White DeVante Parker Nelson Agholor Breshad Perriman Phillip Dorsett 2nd Round: Devin Smith Dorial Green-Beckham So ... when you hear the talking heads describing 1st and 2nd round as both being a hot bed for WR talent historically, this is just recency bias due to a few good players coming from the 2020 and 2019 first and second round. There have been been A LOT of JAGs mixed in as well... but maybe they forgot. Hope you enjoy the analysis. Can you do the same for WR in rounds 3-5 since 2015? Bc offhand there are some serious studs (a few being top 10 WR in the entire NFL) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 8 minutes ago, Rigotz said: Top 32 WR. In other words, are their teams thrilled with the production they got with their 1st round / 2nd round pick? With each of those players, I’m not sure I’d agree that their teams are thrilled … as they weren’t (or likely won’t be) re-signed. Ok, so what did you look at to determine what a top 32 WR is? Yards and TD's? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
julian Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 This board quickly went from Spencer Brown is a bust to let’s use Spencer Brown in a 1st round trade up lol. Im starting to think people just don’t like Spencer Brown, is there some video out there of him saying or doing stupid sh*t that I haven’t seen ? If he helps you get into the top 10 then I’m on board, otherwise I like where Brown’s game is heading. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beck Water Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 (edited) 1 hour ago, nedboy7 said: Just draft the next Diggs in the 5th. Problem solved. Could we try for Puka Nacua? 9 minutes ago, julian said: This board quickly went from Spencer Brown is a bust to let’s use Spencer Brown in a 1st round trade up lol. Im starting to think people just don’t like Spencer Brown, is there some video out there of him saying or doing stupid sh*t that I haven’t seen ? If he helps you get into the top 10 then I’m on board, otherwise I like where Brown’s game is heading. LOL that's a TBD special. "This player's no good, therefore let's trade him for a high pick!" because you know, if a player is genuinely limited surely some other GM will give you a sack 'o draft valuata...... We traded Cordy Glenn, who was a very good LT when not injured as follows: "On March 12, 2018, the Bills agreed to trade Glenn, the 21st overall pick in the 2018 NFL draft, and a 2018 fifth round pick to the Cincinnati Bengals in exchange for the 2018 12th overall pick and a 2018 sixth round pick" So basically, Glenn plus a 5th/6th pick swap moved us up 9 spots. IF we value Brown, a RT, the same (that's an 'if'), he'd get us from 28 to 19....no where near 10. Edited April 11 by Beck Water 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
julian Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 10 minutes ago, Beck Water said: Could we try for Puka Nacua? LOL that's a TBD special. "This player's no good, therefore let's trade him for a high pick!" because you know, if a player is genuinely limited surely some other GM will give you a sack 'o draft valuata...... We traded Cordy Glenn, who was a very good LT when not injured as follows: "On March 12, 2018, the Bills agreed to trade Glenn, the 21st overall pick in the 2018 NFL draft, and a 2018 fifth round pick to the Cincinnati Bengals in exchange for the 2018 12th overall pick and a 2018 sixth round pick" So basically, Glenn plus a 5th/6th pick swap moved us up 9 spots. IF we value Brown, a RT, the same (that's an 'if'), he'd get us from 28 to 19....no where near 10. Yeah then I’m out on that, Brown is progressing nicely. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LABILLBACKER Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 This is all the more reason why we probably need to double dip on wrs. We'll be lucky to find one wr1/wr2 between the 2 picks. And next year we'll need to draft wr again. So between the 1st & 2nd round we have about a 30% chance of landing a (++) wr. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PBF81 Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 2 hours ago, Rigotz said: I've heard a lot of Bills talking heads raving about 2nd round WR success -- Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown, etc. It's a hot topic with the podcasting community as everyone seems to be laser focused at WR in round 1 or 2. So, I was curious to research the hit rate of WR in 1st round vs 2nd round the past several years. The results might surprise you. I marked "++" for plus starters each year, which I would define as a top 32 wideout. The past 2 seasons are TBD, so I started in 2021. Totals: 11 out of 28 first round picks ended up being plus starters (39%). 6 out of 33 second round picks ended up being plus starters (18%). 2021: 1st Round Ja'Marr Chase ++ Jaylen Waddle ++ DeVonta Smith ++ Kadarius Toney Rashod Bateman 2nd Round Elijah Moore Rondale Moore D'Wayne Eskridge Tutu Atwell Terrace Marshall Jr 2020: 1st Round Henry Ruggs Jerry Jeudy CeeDee Lamb ++ Jalen Reagor Justin Jefferson ++ Brandon Aiyuk ++ 2nd Round Tee Higgins ++ Michael Pittman ++ Laviska Shenault KJ Hamler Chase Claypool Van Jefferson Denzel Mims 2019: 1st Round Marquise Brown N'Keal Harry 2nd Round Deebo Samuel ++ AJ Brown ++ Mecole Hardman JJ Arcega-Whiteside Parris Campbell Andy Isabella DK Metcalf ++ 2018: 1st Round: DJ Moore ++ Calvin Ridley 2nd Round: Courtland Sutton Dante Pettis Christian Kirk Anthony MIller James Washintgon DJ Chark 2017: 1st Round: Corey Davis Mike Williams ++ John Ross 2nd Round: Zay Jones Curtis Samuel JuJu Smith-Schuster 2016: 1st Round: Corey Coleman Will Fuller Josh Doctson Laquon Treadwell 2nd Round: Sterling Shepard Michael Thomas +? Tyler Boyd 2015: 1st Round: Amari Cooper ++ Kevin White DeVante Parker Nelson Agholor Breshad Perriman Phillip Dorsett 2nd Round: Devin Smith Dorial Green-Beckham So ... when you hear the talking heads describing 1st and 2nd round as both being a hot bed for WR talent historically, this is just recency bias due to a few good players coming from the 2020 and 2019 first and second round. There have been been A LOT of JAGs mixed in as well... but maybe they forgot. Hope you enjoy the analysis. There's also a significant pattern of dropoff in play for WRs selected somewhere in the 50s for overall selection. So the 60th pick isn't likely to help us out. We've gotta make the most of our 1st rounder for a WR. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoonerBillsFan Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 2 hours ago, Aussie Joe said: I hear ya man … gotta take more shots .., not less Gotta keep swinging. Beane is better than the assclown we had at GM then. I have faith he can pick the right guy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Victory Formation Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 If you’re Beane, please just take your guy at 28. Don’t get cute. I don’t care if it’s BTJ or Legette, reach 10-15 spots if you have to, this Draft is too good not to. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gtw3 Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 I am so torn on what I think we should do with this pick(s). If you go back just one year further to 2014 you have, probably the best WR draft ever. We moved up in that draft to get Watkins and it didn't really pan out for us. That draft had Evans, OBJ, Watkins, Adams, Landry, Cooks, Benjamin, Robinson amongst others. So do we package a ton of picks to move up to get 1 guy who we really like or try to maneuver to pick up a few of these highly touted WRs? ...in Beane I trust, I guess. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoonerBillsFan Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 3 minutes ago, Victory Formation said: If you’re Beane, please just take your guy at 28. Don’t get cute. I don’t care if it’s BTJ or Legette, reach 10-15 spots if you have to, this Draft is too good not to. I am with you in a little move up. But I hope he makes sure he picks the RIGHT WR. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPL Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 I see Andy Isabella is on this list... so, we're all set, right? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Victory Formation Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 Just now, SoonerBillsFan said: I am with you in a little move up. But I hope he makes sure he picks the RIGHT WR. Oh, absolutely. Especially if we could get BTJ for 28 and maybe our 4th and 5th and maybe our 3rd next year, I’d feel a lot better about it if the compensation is right. Ideally we hang onto all three of our 2nds. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richard Noggin Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 11 hours ago, Big Turk said: This is a good point and a large part of how successful a player is or isn't comes down to how they are used, the scheme they play in and the opportunities they are given. I mean would Puka Nacua have gotten such a prominent role in the offense if Cooper Kupp hadn't been injured? Probably not. Also, a WR drafted in the 3rd round on a bad team might get a lot more snaps as a top 3 WR than a 1st round pick drafted on a good team. Or at least a similar number of reps, and might be targeted more often than a rookie on a good team simply due to too many players and not enough balls to go around where the same player on a bad team doesn't have this issue. Obviously McVay's offense WILL feature SOMEone in that ultra-productive Z/move-WR role, year after year. He's especially good at designing production. Give him a healthy Atwell and Cupp to go with Nacua, and you'll see fireworks. 17 minutes ago, julian said: Yeah then I’m out on that, Brown is progressing nicely. He IS entering the final year of his rookie deal, right? Will they pay BOTH OTs big money in 2025? After 2023, Brown isn't on a bargain FA RT trajectory (if he continues to develop or even if he just plateaus where he's at). Of course you'd prefer to see the org re-sign the guy they saw the value in and worked to develop. But you can't keep them all. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDingus Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 You also have to look beyond the 1st & 2nd rounds. Nico Collins - 3rd Round Keenan Allen - 3rd Round Terry McLaurin - 3rd Round Cooper Kupp - 3rd Round Amon-Ra St. Brown - 4th Round Stefon Diggs - 5th Round Tyreek Hill - 5th Round Puca Nacua - 5th Round You definitely can find the more sure-fire picks earlier in the draft, but smart teams find stars in the later rounds every year. The Bills would be smart to go after multiple guys, including those that aren't given 1st or 2nd round grades. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
julian Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 9 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said: Obviously McVay's offense WILL feature SOMEone in that ultra-productive Z/move-WR role, year after year. He's especially good at designing production. Give him a healthy Atwell and Cupp to go with Nacua, and you'll see fireworks. He IS entering the final year of his rookie deal, right? Will they pay BOTH OTs big money in 2025? After 2023, Brown isn't on a bargain FA RT trajectory (if he continues to develop or even if he just plateaus where he's at). Of course you'd prefer to see the org re-sign the guy they saw the value in and worked to develop. But you can't keep them all. While I agree with you that you’re not gonna be able to keep them all, I’m just of the belief that the position you lean towards keeping is young upstart offensive linemen and you protect your most valuable asset in #17. Trim the fat from another position group IMHO. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richard Noggin Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 11 minutes ago, julian said: While I agree with you that you’re not gonna be able to keep them all, I’m just of the belief that the position you lean towards keeping is young upstart offensive linemen and you protect your most valuable asset in #17. Trim the fat from another position group IMHO. Guys will see this and just say "Hell yeah" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beck Water Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 3 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said: I am with you in a little move up. But I hope he makes sure he picks the RIGHT WR. I could be wrong, but I think the Bills need to move one way or the other, and knowing Beane, Up is more likely. But not having a 3rd round pick hampers him. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pennstate10 Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 6 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said: So my take away from this thread is: we trade up for BTJ & trade our 2025 1st to get back into the round for ________ (insert favorite choice) 😎😂 Please God, let us have Nabers AND BTJ?! 🤯Allen A-BOMB offense. 28 & Spencer Brown to LV for 13 13, 128, 2025 2nd, 3rd to LAC/NYG 6/7 60, 2025 1st, 2nd, 5th to SEA for 16 😈 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bookie Man Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 Draft is a literal crapshoot. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 7 hours ago, Rigotz said: I debated Michael Thomas being a ++ but he’s on waivers right now and generally an afterthought in Free Agency. But was a 2 time 1st team all pro a 1 time offensive player of the year and a two time NFL receptions leader. Yea the back half of his career has been a bust with injuries and instability at the QB position but he was on historic pace the first 4 years. The other one I question is Mike Williams. I don't think he is close to a "++". I'd take Courtland Sutton over him. Williams has 400 more yards and 7 more touchdowns but has started 7 more games and had Philip Rivers and Justin Herbert. Compare that to the QB disaster that Denver has been. If you swapped those situations around Sutton would have a bigger statistical lead on Williams than he has on Sutton without a doubt IMO. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed_Formerly_of_Roch Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 14 hours ago, Rigotz said: I've heard a lot of Bills talking heads raving about 2nd round WR success -- Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown, etc. It's a hot topic with the podcasting community as everyone seems to be laser focused at WR in round 1 or 2. So, I was curious to research the hit rate of WR in 1st round vs 2nd round the past several years. The results might surprise you. I marked "++" for plus starters each year, which I would define as a top 32 wideout. The past 2 seasons are TBD, so I started in 2021. Totals: 11 out of 28 first round picks ended up being plus starters (39%). 6 out of 33 second round picks ended up being plus starters (18%). 2021: 1st Round Ja'Marr Chase ++ Jaylen Waddle ++ DeVonta Smith ++ Kadarius Toney Rashod Bateman 2nd Round Elijah Moore Rondale Moore D'Wayne Eskridge Tutu Atwell Terrace Marshall Jr 2020: 1st Round Henry Ruggs Jerry Jeudy CeeDee Lamb ++ Jalen Reagor Justin Jefferson ++ Brandon Aiyuk ++ 2nd Round Tee Higgins ++ Michael Pittman ++ Laviska Shenault KJ Hamler Chase Claypool Van Jefferson Denzel Mims 2019: 1st Round Marquise Brown N'Keal Harry 2nd Round Deebo Samuel ++ AJ Brown ++ Mecole Hardman JJ Arcega-Whiteside Parris Campbell Andy Isabella DK Metcalf ++ 2018: 1st Round: DJ Moore ++ Calvin Ridley 2nd Round: Courtland Sutton Dante Pettis Christian Kirk Anthony MIller James Washintgon DJ Chark 2017: 1st Round: Corey Davis Mike Williams ++ John Ross 2nd Round: Zay Jones Curtis Samuel JuJu Smith-Schuster 2016: 1st Round: Corey Coleman Will Fuller Josh Doctson Laquon Treadwell 2nd Round: Sterling Shepard Michael Thomas +? Tyler Boyd 2015: 1st Round: Amari Cooper ++ Kevin White DeVante Parker Nelson Agholor Breshad Perriman Phillip Dorsett 2nd Round: Devin Smith Dorial Green-Beckham So ... when you hear the talking heads describing 1st and 2nd round as both being a hot bed for WR talent historically, this is just recency bias due to a few good players coming from the 2020 and 2019 first and second round. There have been been A LOT of JAGs mixed in as well... but maybe they forgot. Hope you enjoy the analysis. So looking at this, my question is are there many WR drafted in lower rounds who'd earn your ++ rating, or are there just not many ++ WR's around anywhere, or is your grading curve to tough to earn the ++? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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