Virgil Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp For those interested in trading up, here's some scenarios. This is not to say that I want to Bills to make any of these moves. Just putting information out there. Bills Picks - Value #28 - 660 #60 - 300 #128 - 44 #133 - 39.5 2025 #1 - 300 2025 #2 132 2025 #2 (Diggs) - 150? These are the values of different tiers in the top 20 for this draft: 5 - 1700 10 - 1300 15 - 1050 20 - 850 So, for those who want a top 4 receiver, which are projected to go in the top 10-15, you'd be looking at: Top 10 - 1300 Value - #28, #60, #133, 2025 #1 Top 15 - 1050 Value - #28, #60 or next year's 1st, and #2 next year from Diggs trade For me, that's way to rich for my blood in such a deep draft class. But, I also wouldn't be surprised if one of them fell beyond 10. 6 6 24 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sestak4ever Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 Thanks for the info Virgil.👍 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strive_for_five_guy Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 No doubt in my mind Beane plans to use draft capital from next year’s draft, in order to move up in either the 1st or 2nd round this year and draft the WR he wants. Question is who does he really like and how much is he willing to spend. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Process Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 I would do this if that's all that it will take 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allen2Moulds Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 We have to hope that it's a buyers draft. Those teams that miss out on QB this year, might be willing to sell a little cheaper, in order to load up for 2025. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Virgil Posted April 3 Author Share Posted April 3 Just now, strive_for_five_guy said: No doubt in my mind Beane plans to use draft capital from next year’s draft, in order to move up in either the 1st or 2nd round this year and draft the WR he wants. Question is who does he really like and how much is he willing to spend. Top 15 - 1050 Value - #28, 2025 1st, and #2 next year from Diggs trade If there were any move I'd be willing to make, it would be this one. I think we all know what holes this team will have for the next few years as the age purge is already happening. I want to keep my picks this year, because we could get that Top 4 WR, and still get a starting G/C, and DL/S with our top picks. Next year, we wouldn't have our first, but the value is here this year. We wouldn't miss the 2nd from the Diggs trade. So I view it as getting a top 4 receiver at the cost of our 1st next year. I'm good with that 1 minute ago, Process said: I would do this if that's all that it will take #12 - 1200 Bills - #1 2024 - 660 + Bills 2025 #1 300 = 960 That math doesn't math at all 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beck Water Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 12 minutes ago, Virgil said: https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp For those interested in trading up, here's some scenarios. This is not to say that I want to Bills to make any of these moves. Just putting information out there. Bills Picks - Value #28 - 660 #60 - 300 #128 - 44 #133 - 39.5 2025 #1 - 300 2025 #2 132 2025 #2 (Diggs) - 150? These are the values of different tiers in the top 20 for this draft: 5 - 1700 10 - 1300 15 - 1050 20 - 850 So, for those who want a top 4 receiver, which are projected to go in the top 10-15, you'd be looking at: Top 10 - 1300 Value - #28, #60, #133, 2025 #1 Top 15 - 1050 Value - #28, #60 or next year's 1st, and #2 next year from Diggs trade For me, that's way to rich for my blood in such a deep draft class. But, I also wouldn't be surprised if one of them fell beyond 10. Thank you! I really appreciate you putting this up there. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KDIGGZ Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 The top 3 WR's will go in the top 10. We aren't going up that high without seriously negatively impacting this team for years, worse than $30 mil dead cap or Von Miller's contract 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanC883 Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 14 minutes ago, Virgil said: https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp For those interested in trading up, here's some scenarios. This is not to say that I want to Bills to make any of these moves. Just putting information out there. Bills Picks - Value #28 - 660 #60 - 300 #128 - 44 #133 - 39.5 2025 #1 - 300 2025 #2 132 2025 #2 (Diggs) - 150? These are the values of different tiers in the top 20 for this draft: 5 - 1700 10 - 1300 15 - 1050 20 - 850 So, for those who want a top 4 receiver, which are projected to go in the top 10-15, you'd be looking at: Top 10 - 1300 Value - #28, #60, #133, 2025 #1 Top 15 - 1050 Value - #28, #60 or next year's 1st, and #2 next year from Diggs trade For me, that's way to rich for my blood in such a deep draft class. But, I also wouldn't be surprised if one of them fell beyond 10. this is awesome, thanks. I agree trading into top 10 is too much. Top 15/20 may be the sweet spot to hit on a guy like Thomas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gonzo1105 Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 I am probably more on the train for Brian Thomas in the top 15 than I am going up to say 9 which I think is the likeliest spot. I do think there is a good possibility that Rome Odunze could slip and I would love to get him. If the Bears want to do it, I think you have to add in this years draft picks since they dont have many. A lot of people suggest the Rich Hill Model now. Bears pick: 9 (Worth 387 points) 2025 4th Rounder(Worth 15 points) Total: 402 Points Bills trade: 28(209 points) 2025 1st Rounder(120 points) 2024 4th Rounder(19 points) 2024 5th Rounder(13 Points) 2025 3rd Rounder (50 points) Total: 411 points This would give the Bills the opportunity to draft Rome Odunze at 9 This would leave the Bills in the 2024 draft with: 9, 60, 4th rounder, 2 5th rounders, 2 6th rounders, and a 7th rounder....this leaves the Bills with 8 draft picks Next Year: 2nd(Vikings), 2nd (Bills) 4th, 4th(Davis Comp pick), 4th(Bears Trade) 5th, 5th (Floyd Comp pick), 6, 6(Basham Trade)......this leaves the Bills with 9 draft picks next year. I think this is a very plausible scenario for Rome if he falls. 3 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastMaster Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 The draft value chart is simply a guideline for those that don't know Teams have done deals that were significantly less and significantly more on the chart, so ultimately it doesn't mean a whole lot 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Process Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 I remember being shocked when this happened. I haven't looked at chart values but it feels like one of the most lopsided draft pick trades I can remember. Hopefully we can pull off a similar move. . The Vikings traded the 12th overall pick of the 2022 NFL Draft within the division on Thursday night. Minnesota sent the selection to the Detroit Lions, along with the 46th overall pick in the second round, in exchange for the 32nd, 34th and 66th overall selections this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 10 minutes ago, Process said: I would do this if that's all that it will take That's just false. It will take more than that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweats Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 I think they have their eye on a couple of guys and are ready to pull the trigger to make it happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Process Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 Just now, MJS said: That's just false. It will take more than that. I agree. But see my post above yours. All it takes is one stupid team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Virgil Posted April 3 Author Share Posted April 3 3 minutes ago, BeastMaster said: The draft value chart is simply a guideline for those that don't know Teams have done deals that were significantly less and significantly more on the chart, so ultimately it doesn't mean a whole lot It really depends on the picks and talent in the draft. Teams typically overpay to get into the top 5, or back into the 1st round. It also depends on how deep the draft is for the team trading back. To me, this is a really strange draft. There is a lot of receiver depth and four 1st round QB's. However, there's only about 12-15 players with first round grades. Many positions have their top player not even rated about a 3rd round pick. So, for QB's and Receivers, I expect the top guys to get overpaid for. After that, I could see the trade chart being pretty accurate within 10% total value. 5 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said: I am probably more on the train for Brian Thomas in the top 15 than I am going up to say 9 which I think is the likeliest spot. I do think there is a good possibility that Rome Odunze could slip and I would love to get him. If the Bears want to do it, I think you have to add in this years draft picks since they dont have many. A lot of people suggest the Rich Hill Model now. Bears pick: 9 (Worth 387 points) 2025 4th Rounder(Worth 15 points) Total: 402 Points Bills trade: 28(209 points) 2025 1st Rounder(120 points) 2024 4th Rounder(19 points) 2024 5th Rounder(13 Points) 2025 3rd Rounder (50 points) Total: 411 points This would give the Bills the opportunity to draft Rome Odunze at 9 This would leave the Bills in the 2024 draft with: 9, 60, 4th rounder, 2 5th rounders, 2 6th rounders, and a 7th rounder....this leaves the Bills with 8 draft picks Next Year: 2nd(Vikings), 2nd (Bills) 4th, 4th(Davis Comp pick), 4th(Bears Trade) 5th, 5th (Floyd Comp pick), 6, 6(Basham Trade)......this leaves the Bills with 9 draft picks next year. I think this is a very plausible scenario for Rome if he falls. Brian Thomas is the guy I would want. However, teams don't like to trade back in the 1st for less than 1-3 round picks. I think the Bears would want a 2nd instead or that 3/4/5 picks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 2 minutes ago, Process said: I agree. But see my post above yours. All it takes is one stupid team. That's not nearly as lopsided as you think. That's 1640 for the Vikings and 1410 for the Lions according to the value calculator I used. There are a few calculators out there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillyG Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 22 minutes ago, Virgil said: https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp For those interested in trading up, here's some scenarios. This is not to say that I want to Bills to make any of these moves. Just putting information out there. Bills Picks - Value #28 - 660 #60 - 300 #128 - 44 #133 - 39.5 2025 #1 - 300 2025 #2 132 2025 #2 (Diggs) - 150? These are the values of different tiers in the top 20 for this draft: 5 - 1700 10 - 1300 15 - 1050 20 - 850 So, for those who want a top 4 receiver, which are projected to go in the top 10-15, you'd be looking at: Top 10 - 1300 Value - #28, #60, #133, 2025 #1 Top 15 - 1050 Value - #28, #60 or next year's 1st, and #2 next year from Diggs trade For me, that's way to rich for my blood in such a deep draft class. But, I also wouldn't be surprised if one of them fell beyond 10. This Diggs trade doesn't change a thing for me. I still would like to see them trade out of round 1. Pick up an extra day 2 pick this year and some MORE picks next year and get that WR in round 2. The class is deep enough. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 9 minutes ago, BeastMaster said: The draft value chart is simply a guideline for those that don't know Teams have done deals that were significantly less and significantly more on the chart, so ultimately it doesn't mean a whole lot I don't really agree. Every team uses the charts. They deviate some, but they use the charts as a baseline. I think they do mean a lot, but they don't mean everything. Some teams become desperate. Some teams value draft picks more than others. But the charts are always relevant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gonzo1105 Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 Denver would also make a good trade partner. Rebuilding team who could either take a QB at 28 or use the 20251st for a QB they want in next years draft. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zevo Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 Man If somehow odunze slips outside the top 10. Nabers is my guy but any one of those top 3 are special. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikePJ76 Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 whatever they do they can not move this years 2nd round pick. If and/or when the trading is done they had better still have this years 2 and 4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbatl32 Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 58 minutes ago, Virgil said: #12 - 1200 Bills - #1 2024 - 660 + Bills 2025 #1 300 = 960 That math doesn't math at all There are different 'draft pick trade value charts'. Remember, the Bills traded the 10th pick to KC in the Mahomes trade for a swap of picks, a 3rd rounder and next year's first rounder. The "Rich Hill Trade Chart" is supposedly the most accurate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBFL Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 (edited) Wonder if we can find one of those teams in the 10-15 range who’ll take 28, the 2025 Minny 2nd instead of the 1st rounder and then flip their pick that’s after 60 but not out of the 2nd/3rd round range. Looking at the teams it’s possible for Indy: 15 & 82 for 28, 60 & the Vikings 2nd rounder? Seattle: 16 & 81 for 28, 60 & the Vikings 2nd? Denver: 12 & 75 for 28, 60 & our 2025 1st? New Orleans is tricky given the draft picks they have this year. Oakland have the picks but a lot of holes to fill. Probably want to keep the 3 they have in the top 80 (13, 44 & 77). Jets aren’t giving up the 10 spot to a division rival unless we are screwing ourselves over. No thanks. Edited April 3 by BBFL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solomon Grundy Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 5 hours ago, Virgil said: Top 15 - 1050 Value - #28, 2025 1st, and #2 next year from Diggs trade If there were any move I'd be willing to make, it would be this one. I think we all know what holes this team will have for the next few years as the age purge is already happening. I want to keep my picks this year, because we could get that Top 4 WR, and still get a starting G/C, and DL/S with our top picks. Next year, we wouldn't have our first, but the value is here this year. We wouldn't miss the 2nd from the Diggs trade. So I view it as getting a top 4 receiver at the cost of our 1st next year. I'm good with that #12 - 1200 Bills - #1 2024 - 660 + Bills 2025 #1 300 = 960 That math doesn't math at all How does this year's #1=660 but next year's only=300? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Virgil Posted April 3 Author Share Posted April 3 6 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said: How does this year's #1=660 but next year's only=300? Future draft picks are worth one round less value that current picks. So next years round 1 would be equal to this years round 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo03 Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 Can our staff put out a fake drug report on one of the top 3 WRs? Get them to fall to number 15 and pull the trigger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan714 Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 Just take the best one at 28, don't trade away any premium picks, you want to get younger and cheaper. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimBob2232 Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 35 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said: Can our staff put out a fake drug report on one of the top 3 WRs? Get them to fall to number 15 and pull the trigger Well...have you seen the kind of crap Marvin Harrison Jr's dad did? Cant let that get public. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicken Boo Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 6 hours ago, Virgil said: Top 15 - 1050 Value - #28, 2025 1st, and #2 next year from Diggs trade If there were any move I'd be willing to make, it would be this one. I think we all know what holes this team will have for the next few years as the age purge is already happening. I want to keep my picks this year, because we could get that Top 4 WR, and still get a starting G/C, and DL/S with our top picks. Next year, we wouldn't have our first, but the value is here this year. We wouldn't miss the 2nd from the Diggs trade. So I view it as getting a top 4 receiver at the cost of our 1st next year. I'm good with that #12 - 1200 Bills - #1 2024 - 660 + Bills 2025 #1 300 = 960 That math doesn't math at all The chart isn't gospel. Sometimes teams have to give more, sometimes what's accpeted is less. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lagoon Blues Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 7 hours ago, Virgil said: https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp For those interested in trading up, here's some scenarios. This is not to say that I want to Bills to make any of these moves. Just putting information out there. Bills Picks - Value #28 - 660 #60 - 300 #128 - 44 #133 - 39.5 2025 #1 - 300 2025 #2 132 2025 #2 (Diggs) - 150? These are the values of different tiers in the top 20 for this draft: 5 - 1700 10 - 1300 15 - 1050 20 - 850 So, for those who want a top 4 receiver, which are projected to go in the top 10-15, you'd be looking at: Top 10 - 1300 Value - #28, #60, #133, 2025 #1 Top 15 - 1050 Value - #28, #60 or next year's 1st, and #2 next year from Diggs trade For me, that's way to rich for my blood in such a deep draft class. But, I also wouldn't be surprised if one of them fell beyond 10. Thanks for putting all that together man. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MasterStrategist Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 Unless they see one of the top WRs as "can't miss all-pro", then I'm hesitant to give away picks. WR class is so deep this year, we have some other key holes (DE, DT, S) that we can get better at as well, at least with depth. I also don't like moving 2025 picks. Beane is taking "his cap medicine" in 2024, why go "all in" again for 2024? Again, if it's a can't miss prospect then maybe. But we are setup capwise and draft picks in 2025 to be very aggressive both in FA and draft. I'd rather stay patient and see who is there at 28, likely a solid WR prospect still. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrags Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 7 hours ago, gonzo1105 said: I am probably more on the train for Brian Thomas in the top 15 than I am going up to say 9 which I think is the likeliest spot. I do think there is a good possibility that Rome Odunze could slip and I would love to get him. If the Bears want to do it, I think you have to add in this years draft picks since they dont have many. A lot of people suggest the Rich Hill Model now. Bears pick: 9 (Worth 387 points) 2025 4th Rounder(Worth 15 points) Total: 402 Points Bills trade: 28(209 points) 2025 1st Rounder(120 points) 2024 4th Rounder(19 points) 2024 5th Rounder(13 Points) 2025 3rd Rounder (50 points) Total: 411 points This would give the Bills the opportunity to draft Rome Odunze at 9 This would leave the Bills in the 2024 draft with: 9, 60, 4th rounder, 2 5th rounders, 2 6th rounders, and a 7th rounder....this leaves the Bills with 8 draft picks Next Year: 2nd(Vikings), 2nd (Bills) 4th, 4th(Davis Comp pick), 4th(Bears Trade) 5th, 5th (Floyd Comp pick), 6, 6(Basham Trade)......this leaves the Bills with 9 draft picks next year. I think this is a very plausible scenario for Rome if he falls. I would do this in a heartbeat for one of the top 3 guys. Would also give up a little less for 15-18ish and go for Thomas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFanForever19 Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 (edited) 7 hours ago, Virgil said: https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp For those interested in trading up, here's some scenarios. This is not to say that I want to Bills to make any of these moves. Just putting information out there. Bills Picks - Value #28 - 660 #60 - 300 #128 - 44 #133 - 39.5 2025 #1 - 300 2025 #2 132 2025 #2 (Diggs) - 150? These are the values of different tiers in the top 20 for this draft: 5 - 1700 10 - 1300 15 - 1050 20 - 850 So, for those who want a top 4 receiver, which are projected to go in the top 10-15, you'd be looking at: Top 10 - 1300 Value - #28, #60, #133, 2025 #1 Top 15 - 1050 Value - #28, #60 or next year's 1st, and #2 next year from Diggs trade For me, that's way to rich for my blood in such a deep draft class. But, I also wouldn't be surprised if one of them fell beyond 10. That's the old Jimmy Johnson model. It's out of date. Belichick called it out of date 5 years ago (https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/bill-belichick-every-team-uses-the-same-draft-chart) Beane on McAfee mentioned there's more modern charts than that one. I tend to go off the Rich Hill model. They even say on that very page that it's more reflective of trades in modern years than that chart is: https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp I'd also add there's variables outside of the chart that determines price. When it's a less talented Draft, prices are lower. When there's an all time talent at play, the price is more. Edited April 4 by BillsFanForever19 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBeaneBandit Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 7 hours ago, BeastMaster said: The draft value chart is simply a guideline for those that don't know Teams have done deals that were significantly less and significantly more on the chart, so ultimately it doesn't mean a whole lot Right. It's really just a loose guideline. Who falls/what position will determine different scenarios. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
27yanks Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 Trade 2024 1 + 2025 1/2 to Arizona for this years 35, 66, 71, 90 get's 2 WR, 1 DT, 1 Safety all capable of starting right away Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reed83HOF Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 This is easy - Julio Jones it for Odunze with NYG at 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pennstate10 Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 9 hours ago, Virgil said: Top 15 - 1050 Value - #28, 2025 1st, and #2 next year from Diggs trade If there were any move I'd be willing to make, it would be this one. I think we all know what holes this team will have for the next few years as the age purge is already happening. I want to keep my picks this year, because we could get that Top 4 WR, and still get a starting G/C, and DL/S with our top picks. Next year, we wouldn't have our first, but the value is here this year. We wouldn't miss the 2nd from the Diggs trade. So I view it as getting a top 4 receiver at the cost of our 1st next year. I'm good with that #12 - 1200 Bills - #1 2024 - 660 + Bills 2025 #1 300 = 960 That math doesn't math at all I dont know. Theres a chart, and then there are real life trades. "The Chiefs moved up to 10th overall by sending their first-round pick that year (27th overall) to Buffalo, along with a 2017 third-round choice (No. 91 overall) and KC's 2018 first-round pick." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFanForever19 Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 1 minute ago, Reed83HOF said: This is easy - Julio Jones it for Odunze with NYG at 6 Seems fairly obvious that QB's will make up 4 of the first 5 picks. Minnesota with their ammo of 2 Round 1 Picks this year above ours and their need at QB is going to trade into 4 or 5 for the last of the 4 Top QB's with a high 1st Round Grade. Pick 6 tends to have either MHJ or Nabers available in most mocks. I definitely like Odunze. But if we were to trade to 6 with the board going as most expect it to, Odunze would not be my pick there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reed83HOF Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 Just now, BillsFanForever19 said: Seems fairly obvious that QB's will make up 4 of the first 5 picks. Minnesota with their ammo of 2 Round 1 Picks this year above ours and their need at QB is going to trade into 4 or 5 for the last of the 4 Top QB's with a high 1st Round Grade. Pick 6 tends to have either MHJ or Nabers available in most mocks. I definitely like Odunze. But if we were to trade to 6 with the board going as most expect it to, Odunze would not be my pick there. Every year the QBs are going to to be the top 1-4 picks and it never happens. OTs and the 2 "elite" WRs will go and I would wager 2 of the QBs will not go in the top 6... If Nabers or Harrison is there I will be surprised...It's possible, but I am fine with any of those 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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