Jim Kubiak Analysis in BN

[Casey D]

Again behind a pay wall, so no link.

 

His analysis for the Pats game was pretty simple.  The Pats had a brilliant defensive game plan that had Allen off schedule most of the game.  Pats would consistently rush 5 or 6, and then play a soft zone behind to take away hot crossing routes. As they fell behind, it got worse as Allen failed to take some easy plays in an effort to get bigger--ultimately failed-- plays. And he got flustered by lots of hits.

 

Notwithstanding all that, the Bills were still able to take the lead with less than 2 minutes left, when there was an utter fail by the Bills defense.  On the first Pats play on their final drive, he shows that the lineman down field penalty/non- penalty was a close call, as Andrews was around a yard plus downfield.  Over a yard is a penalty, but that seems to be why they picked up the flag.

 

Bottom line is that the Pats defensive scheme was the main driver here.  It was not the O-line as much as the scheme that left more pass rushers than blockers.  Combined with a failure to be able to run consistently and losing the turnover battle, pretty much a recipe for a loss on the road.

 

Not much to say here except the Bills offense has to have its stuff together early, particularly on the offensive side mentally.  It is confounding, but the Bills need to right the ship, and in a hurry.

[Low Positive]

Put the link anyway. The BN paywall can be defeated just by using an incognito window. 

[dave mcbride]

3 minutes ago, Casey D said:

Again behind a pay wall, so no link.

 

His analysis for the Pats game was pretty simple.  The Pats had a brilliant defensive game plan that had Allen off schedule most of the game.  Pats would consistently rush 5 or 6, and then play a soft zone behind to take away hot crossing routes. As they fell behind, it got worse as Allen failed to take some easy plays in an effort to get bigger--ultimately failed-- plays. And he got flustered by lots of hits.

 

Notwithstanding all that, the Bills were still able to take the lead with less than 2 minutes left, when there was an utter fail by the Bills defense.  On the first Pats play on their final drive, he shows that the lineman down field penalty/non- penalty was a close call, as Andrews was around a yard plus downfield.  Over a yard is a penalty, but that seems to be why they picked up the flag.

 

Bottom line is that the Pats defensive scheme was the main driver here.  It was not the O-line as much as the scheme that left more pass rushers than blockers.  Combined with a failure to be able to run consistently and losing the turnover battle, pretty much a recipe for a loss on the road.

 

Not much to say here except the Bills offense has to have its stuff together early, particularly on the offensive side mentally.  It is confounding, but the Bills need to right the ship, and in a hurry.

They didn't really lose the turnover battle; it was 1-1 not counting the failed lateral with no time on the clock.

 

Also, a link would be appreciated.

Edited October 25, 2023 by dave mcbride

[Low Positive]

Now that BB’s game plan is on film, every team is going to do exactly that until the Bills figure out how to beat it. 

[boyst]

15 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:

Put the link anyway. The BN paywall can be defeated just by using an incognito window. 

that's a horrible way to deceive them of revenue.  By using ideas or sites like RemovePaywall.com you take the money out of the struggling journalists and people who are supposed to shape our minds and influence our opinions! If we do not give them money to do this, how would we ever know what to think?

 

Again, a site like https://www.removepaywall.com/ is terrible!

[falgobofu]

24 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

They didn't really lose the turnover battle; it was 1-1 not counting the failed lateral with no time on the clock.

 

Also, a link would be appreciated.

Interception, turnover on downs, and lateral. That is 3, 2 if you dont count the lateral.

 

[Marcus Aurelius]

11 minutes ago, boyst said:

that's a horrible way to deceive them of revenue.  By using ideas or sites like RemovePaywall.com you take the money out of the struggling journalists and people who are supposed to shape our minds and influence our opinions! If we do not give them money to do this, how would we ever know what to think?

 

Again, a site like https://www.removepaywall.com/ is terrible!

Thank you my child for upholding decent societal standards 

 

 

 

Edited October 25, 2023 by Marcus Aurelius

[Draconator]

11 minutes ago, boyst said:

that's a horrible way to deceive them of revenue.  By using ideas or sites like RemovePaywall.com you take the money out of the struggling journalists and people who are supposed to shape our minds and influence our opinions! If we do not give them money to do this, how would we ever know what to think?

 

Again, a site like https://www.removepaywall.com/ is terrible!

 

I am a bad, bad man!

 

Oh, https://buffalonews.com/sports/professional/nfl/bills/jim-kubiak-how-patriots-defense-duped-disguised-and-beat-josh-allen-and-bills/article_c2deff88-7296-11ee-9bcb-7fce9f083b2a.html#tracking-source=home-top-story

[Green Lightning]

Which brings us to the Dorsey question again. So what if they had a good D plan?  If the rush is overloaded something has to be open and it's up to the OC to scheme it -- say maybe a shotgun draw or two. 😡

[Buffalo_Stampede]

2 minutes ago, Green Lightning said:

Which brings us to the Dorsey question again. So what if they had a good D plan?  If the rush is overloaded something has to be open and it's up to the OC to scheme it -- say maybe a shotgun draw or two. 😡

Up to the QB to see it. The checks are available to a veteran all world QB like Allen. Let’s stop treating him like a rookie. It’s his offense.

 

 

 

 

[dave mcbride]

18 minutes ago, falgobofu said:

Interception, turnover on downs, and lateral. That is 3, 2 if you dont count the lateral.

 

I certainly don't count the lateral, although the TO on downs arguably counts. 

[Casey D]

And it really all three phases playing sub-optimally that allows upsets like this. Missed FGs, missed tackles and sub-par offensive play most of the game will get you beat. Especially for the Bills, with all these primetime games and being viewed as a top team, they get the best from other teams.

[VaMilBill]

31 minutes ago, Green Lightning said:

Which brings us to the Dorsey question again. So what if they had a good D plan?  If the rush is overloaded something has to be open and it's up to the OC to scheme it -- say maybe a shotgun draw or two. 😡

So people here either say it is Kens fault or Josh’s for failure to take advantage of opportunities. If Josh isn’t mentally prepared to adjust quickly, that either means a) he’s not preparing himself or is uncoachable or b) Ken isn’t taking time to make sure Josh knows exactly what to expect and where to go and who to look for. 
 

iMO, it comes back to coaching. Ken has got to do a better job helping Josh out not just with play calling, but what to look for out on the field.  

[pocoboy]

33 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Up to the QB to see it. The checks are available to a veteran all world QB like Allen. Let’s stop treating him like a rookie. It’s his offense.

 

 

Yeah I can't imagine this approach Belichick tried varied much from past variations that this offense has obliterated (save a weather event game).

 

We're all looking for some smoking gun, but I think overall you can lump it all into a big lack of focus. Who knows what the biggest contributing factor is? You hope the coaches and players can solve it.

[boater]

1 hour ago, FrenchConnection said:

Put the link anyway. The BN paywall can be defeated just by using an incognito window. 

Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.

[DrDawkinstein]

1 hour ago, Casey D said:

Again behind a pay wall, so no link.

 

 

I dont get why posters say this. Just provide the link anyways so folks can find the info.

 

Always link.

[2003Contenders]

2 hours ago, FrenchConnection said:

Now that BB’s game plan is on film, every team is going to do exactly that until the Bills figure out how to beat it. 

Well, I am hopeful that the Bills did figure out how to beat it. Scored TDs on 3 of 4 possessions in the 2nd half (not counting the desperate last 12 seconds). Maybe a 4th down drop from Knox away from going 4 for 4. The key beginning Thursday will be to make the necessary adjustments sooner.

[Fleezoid]

4 hours ago, boyst said:

that's a horrible way to deceive them of revenue.  By using ideas or sites like RemovePaywall.com you take the money out of the struggling journalists and people who are supposed to shape our minds and influence our opinions! If we do not give them money to do this, how would we ever know what to think?

 

Again, a site like https://www.removepaywall.com/ is terrible!

 

 

[boyst]

36 minutes ago, Fleezoid said:

 

 

about halfway through this my music playlist of Mr Brightside started... made it interestinger

[Scott7975]

5 hours ago, FrenchConnection said:

Now that BB’s game plan is on film, every team is going to do exactly that until the Bills figure out how to beat it. 

 

BB wasn't the first to do this. Not every defense has the horses to do this.  I also find that the Bills figure it out eventually anyways.  They just seem to be slow at doing so.  It took them like a season to figure out cover zero lol.

[Scott7975]

4 hours ago, VaMilBill said:

So people here either say it is Kens fault or Josh’s for failure to take advantage of opportunities. If Josh isn’t mentally prepared to adjust quickly, that either means a) he’s not preparing himself or is uncoachable or b) Ken isn’t taking time to make sure Josh knows exactly what to expect and where to go and who to look for. 
 

iMO, it comes back to coaching. Ken has got to do a better job helping Josh out not just with play calling, but what to look for out on the field.  

 

I am not a Dorsey fan by any means but some of this blame does lie with Josh. He does not have a good day when he is flustered by pressure and the defense is disguising stuff well or throwing stuff at him that he doesn't expect.  This is the one trait that I think Burrow is better at.  The dude gets pounded but keeps his cool.  Josh just gets flustered.  Couple that with the coaches trying to neuter Josh's game and make him into Brady, it isn't a recipe for success.  It could be, if Josh learns this part of the game but that may take a while.

Edited October 25, 2023 by Scott7975

[Reed83HOF]

6 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

They didn't really lose the turnover battle; it was 1-1 not counting the failed lateral with no time on the clock.

 

Also, a link would be appreciated.

I'm one of those people who look at failed drives, no points it's a failed drive. Doesn't matter if it is punts, ints, fumbles, ToDs; no points you failed...

 

The lateral certainly doesn't count. The end of half or end of fame TOs mean nothing...

[ddaryl]

5 hours ago, Green Lightning said:

Which brings us to the Dorsey question again. So what if they had a good D plan?  If the rush is overloaded something has to be open and it's up to the OC to scheme it -- say maybe a shotgun draw or two. 😡

 

5 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Up to the QB to see it. The checks are available to a veteran all world QB like Allen. Let’s stop treating him like a rookie. It’s his offense.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I agreed to both of your posts. There is truth is both statements

Edited October 25, 2023 by ddaryl

[mannc]

5 hours ago, VaMilBill said:

So people here either say it is Kens fault or Josh’s for failure to take advantage of opportunities. If Josh isn’t mentally prepared to adjust quickly, that either means a) he’s not preparing himself or is uncoachable or b) Ken isn’t taking time to make sure Josh knows exactly what to expect and where to go and who to look for. 
 

iMO, it comes back to coaching. Ken has got to do a better job helping Josh out not just with play calling, but what to look for out on the field.  

“It’s Josh’s fault”, while possibly true, just doesn’t cut it.  The Bills coaching staff’s number one responsibility is to develop and implement a system/scheme that will maximize Josh Allen’s enormous talent.  They are failing and they need to be held accountable.

[Wayne Arnold]

6 hours ago, Casey D said:

Again behind a pay wall, so no link.

 

His analysis for the Pats game was pretty simple.  The Pats had a brilliant defensive game plan that had Allen off schedule most of the game.  Pats would consistently rush 5 or 6, and then play a soft zone behind to take away hot crossing routes. As they fell behind, it got worse as Allen failed to take some easy plays in an effort to get bigger--ultimately failed-- plays. And he got flustered by lots of hits.

 

Notwithstanding all that, the Bills were still able to take the lead with less than 2 minutes left, when there was an utter fail by the Bills defense.  On the first Pats play on their final drive, he shows that the lineman down field penalty/non- penalty was a close call, as Andrews was around a yard plus downfield.  Over a yard is a penalty, but that seems to be why they picked up the flag.

 

Bottom line is that the Pats defensive scheme was the main driver here.  It was not the O-line as much as the scheme that left more pass rushers than blockers.  Combined with a failure to be able to run consistently and losing the turnover battle, pretty much a recipe for a loss on the road.

 

Not much to say here except the Bills offense has to have its stuff together early, particularly on the offensive side mentally.  It is confounding, but the Bills need to right the ship, and in a hurry.

 

Belichick is still the goat. I don't care what anyone says.

 

That said, Allen should be far beyond "failing to take easy plays to get bigger plays" at this point. He's been quarterbacking in the NFL for more than five seasons now. Dude needs to grow up.

[dave mcbride]

20 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

I'm one of those people who look at failed drives, no points it's a failed drive. Doesn't matter if it is punts, ints, fumbles, ToDs; no points you failed...

 

The lateral certainly doesn't count. The end of half or end of fame TOs mean nothing...

My view about turnovers is as follows: do they result in points for one side or the other? (Points-off-of-turnover differential is one of the "king" stats in the NFL.) If so, they really matter. If the turnover happens between one's own 45 yard line and the opponent's 40, you can't really assume a score even if the team that forces the TO gets one. The defense can still make a stop, and the offense still has to put together a normal-ish dive. If you turn the ball over when you're in FG range, though, (the 20-25 yard lines for instance), the other side gets assigned 3 points off of turnovers by me (because you can't assume a TD). That doesn't show up in the points off turnover equation, but it should. The Pats didn't really get any points off of turnovers (in the classic sense) in that game because after the INT they started on the other side of the field. The Bills couldn't get a stop, but given the distance they had to travel to get the TD, it was a "real" TD drive and wasn't handed to them.   

[78thealltimegreat]

We can analyze this over and over but once the Bills figured out what the Pats plan was they really weren’t stopped unless it was Dawsons drop.

What is a concern is their first quarter offensive possessions where they seem to methodically take their time to get going. 
Part of this maybe to shrink the game to protect the defense. The other part of it maybe trying to establish the balance so many people talk about.

I think a simple change in tempo and letting Josh call his own plays maybe the best idea for the time being. 

[BigAl2526]

I imagine that the Bills will be giving considerable thought to how they might attack that defense, but there probably wasn't enough time to implement much of anything this week.

[Low Positive]

5 minutes ago, BigAl2526 said:

I imagine that the Bills will be giving considerable thought to how they might attack that defense, but there probably wasn't enough time to implement much of anything this week.

They actually attacked it well in the second half. 

[harmonkillebrew]

Derrick Carr had a video analysis saying something similar, but he blamed the Bills coaches for not being ready for this and having a game plan.  

Although it also looked like Allen should have read some of these coverages and hit the right route. I'm not sure Allen has the discipline to do the film work required to consistently analyze and recognize coverage tendencies, or maybe Dorsey is holding him back from doing this more independently and with more responsibility (and time) to check at the line. Or maybe Allen is so dependent on Diggs that he latches on to that first read too long.  probably some combo of the three.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

7 hours ago, VaMilBill said:

So people here either say it is Kens fault or Josh’s for failure to take advantage of opportunities. If Josh isn’t mentally prepared to adjust quickly, that either means a) he’s not preparing himself or is uncoachable or b) Ken isn’t taking time to make sure Josh knows exactly what to expect and where to go and who to look for. 
 

iMO, it comes back to coaching. Ken has got to do a better job helping Josh out not just with play calling, but what to look for out on the field.  

The OC needs to tell a 6 year veteran QB how to read a blitz and check to a hot read- He’s attempted over two thousand eight hundred nfl regular season passes and started over 80 games!! 

[Norcalbillsfan]

9 hours ago, FrenchConnection said:

Now that BB’s game plan is on film, every team is going to do exactly that until the Bills figure out how to beat it. 

I think they have the answer in Kincaid, josh just refused to take short throws. There's some really good YouTube breakdowns of the all 22, and Kincaid was doing an excellent job sitting in spaces vacated by a defender. But josh got flustered and was trailing so his eyes were down field for the home run balls. 

[colin]

the pats smart plan and allen's bad pick on the first play is why we didn't boat race the pats.  if we had 3 more not terrible drives we put up like 35 points.

 

the d being utter cheeks is why we lost.  our d has sucked monkey member since the miami game.  this is on mcd.  losing top players means we won't be a top 5 d, i get it, but if your claim to fame is being a genius dc, you gotta get what you have to about average, and be able to stop a team cold a couple times a game when needed.  vs jax and the pats, we just got trucked.

[freddyjj]

34 minutes ago, harmonkillebrew said:

Derrick Carr

David?  The announcer brother 

[26TrapDraw]

9 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Up to the QB to see it. The checks are available to a veteran all world QB like Allen. Let’s stop treating him like a rookie. It’s his offense.

 

 

 

 

Stop it Josh is just being Low Positive.

[LABILLBACKER]

We lost 4 points on a bogus Murray penalty. We lost 3 points on a crazy wind fg miss. We lost another 3 on a failed 4th down. And the deep overthrow to Diggs was probably another 7.  That's 17 lost points.  Dorsey had no answer for the Belichick strategy and yes Josh didn't play his best game.  I would expect TB to duplicate the NE plan verbatim. 

[LABILLBACKER]

4 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

BB wasn't the first to do this. Not every defense has the horses to do this.  I also find that the Bills figure it out eventually anyways.  They just seem to be slow at doing so.  It took them like a season to figure out cover zero lol.

Their ability to identify and react to what's being thrown at them is at a snails crawl.  That's why our 1st half scoring these last 3 games has been non-existent.  

[Old Coot]

8 hours ago, VaMilBill said:

iMO, it comes back to coaching. Ken has got to do a better job helping Josh out not just with play calling, but what to look for out on the field.

In theory you are correct but consider that the OC devises his gameplan based on what the opponent has shown previously. There is only limited time to prepare & coach the gameplan each week. You can't prepare for everything.

 

When the opp is doing something you don't expect its very difficult to adjust during the game. Even halftime adjustments are difficult (P Manning says it is an illusion that you can do halftime adjustments).

 

During the K-Gun years, Kent Hull the center made the line protection calls. Maybe something like this would help Josh by taking that aspect of the game off his plate.

[VaMilBill]

4 minutes ago, Old Coot said:

In theory you are correct but consider that the OC devises his gameplan based on what the opponent has shown previously. There is only limited time to prepare & coach the gameplan each week. You can't prepare for everything.

 

When the opp is doing something you don't expect its very difficult to adjust during the game. Even halftime adjustments are difficult (P Manning says it is an illusion that you can do halftime adjustments).

 

During the K-Gun years, Kent Hull the center made the line protection calls. Maybe something like this would help Josh by taking that aspect of the game off his plate.

So are you thinking some of the offense’s woes are due to Josh’s deficiencies? I know us bills fans like to think Josh’s sh*t don’t stink, but I actually think he has had a fairly large role in why our offense isn’t doing well 

[78thealltimegreat]

1 hour ago, FrenchConnection said:

They actually attacked it well in the second half. 

That’s what I’m saying once they figured out by mid second quarter what the pats plan was they weren’t really stopped by anyone and probably would have won the game in OT if the D would have just gotten a stop. 
They need to change and go uptempo in the first quarter