4 drives ended by dropped passes

[PBF81]

28 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Nobody ever argued that losing Milano wouldn't be a problem. But Bernard played a good game, again. Even with clowns to the left of him and jokers to the right. I have certainly never told you we'd be find with Dodson or Williams in. In fact before Bernard came out and showed us he can play I called that position a liability based on pre-season. 

 

I realize that.  My point is that our D clearly wasn't as good with Milano out.  I wasn't paying attention to who was playing the LB positions, and I do note that I saw some numbers that I wasn't familiar with, aka depth players.  

 

My point is entirely that it was risky entering the season with only Milano as a standout LB.  Yeah, Bernard had a good game, I thought that Williams played admirably from what I caught as well.  

 

Again, I don't know why, but allowin nearly 200 rushing yards is a problem.  I haven't looked at why yet, not sure I'm going to.  Time consuming and it is what it is.  I'm focused on the offense this season.  I don't care how good our D is, or conversely isn't, IMO that's not what's going to determine our record or our chances in the playoffs.  I obviously don't speak for everyone, you know that my take is that our defense has failed us in the playoffs and that IMO we'll have a record-setting offense this season.  I still stand by that.  

 

I know your take, if I suggested otherwise it wasn't deliberate.   

 

28 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

And we didn't have Floyd all day today. He came out of the game too nicked up. We ended the game with a practice squad DTackle playing defensive end on our first unit. We were already down both our starting corners. And our best player on D was gone and replaced by two guys who have no business out there (one not good enough and one currently an overmatched rookie). Add to that Taron missed time... I mean the personnel we had out there at times today on defense was exactly the sort of defense I'd expect a good QB - which Trevor is - to exploit. 

 

Well, last week we had everyone and still allowed nearly 400 net yards.  Again, w/o the key TOs last week,that game is much tighter.  

 

But let's not leap-frog what IMO is the point to all of this, IMO we overrated our defense based upon our play vs. Wilson/Jets' O, Garropalo/Raider's O, and Howell/Skins' O.  Everyone pointed out about our Point Differential, while I pointed out that we've allowed over 100 yards per game more than last season through four games, which IMO was significant given the sentence prior to this one.  As it now stands, last season we allowed an average of 240 YPG while this season we're allowing 325 YPG, last season through 5 games, 61 points, this season, 80 points.  A little of that may have to do with today's game, but hardly all of it.  

 

My point is not necessarily that this D is worse than last season's D, but that last week everyone was arguing that hands down "McD's D was better than Frazier's."  I didn't necessarily see that either.  But by the same standard, what, in one week it went from better to worse?  ... just playing devil's advocate here for the forum. 

 

 

[ILBillsfan]

6 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

How was Josh off?  His first 4 incompletions were 3 drops and a throw away when OL got blown up.  

the under throw to Diggs he was open quick and if the ball is out in font a TD instead diggs had to stopp come back for it off the mark there but a TD to a big completion they didnt score that drive

[TampaBillsJunkie]

6 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

How was Josh off?  His first 4 incompletions were 3 drops and a throw away when OL got blown up.  

Underthrowing the deep balls and missing on a few sideline passes. Josh wasn't at his best, but he didn't suck either. The whole team was off. Jet lagged, snake bit, whatever we call it, but it was hard to watch, especially seeing our best players go down.

[Gunsgoodtime]

6 hours ago, SCBills said:

The Gabe drop was a killer. 
 

We finally had momentum.  Puts us from being 1st down in FG range, down 4 with plenty of time left, to 3rd and long / punt. 

Honestly this play right here changed my mood the rest of the game, it gets soo old seeing it happen to the same person over, and over.  Its really sad, because Gabe does a lot of good things (Big game Gabe!)  But his drops and inconsistencies are soo much it overshadows the good.  Not worth a contract imo, we need to look for a WR 2 next year in the draft or FA.  Before too long, (time passes fast) we will be looking for a #1.  

[PBF81]

6 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Plenty of other factors from injuries to horrific refs that contributed to this loss, but we had 4 drives ended by dropped passes and that’s all in our control.  Would have been 5 too but a penalty negated the play.  
 

Cook, Knox, Diggs, Davis all dropped passes that killed our drives which would have been first downs, with Davis having a second drop for a first down erased off the stat sheet by a penalty.

 

Feels like the only people who showed up to play with any fire today was Allen, Diggs and AJE.  Milano and Daquan get a pass as they were hurt.

 

But the dropped passes in a game where refs were working against us were just killers.

 

Drive 1 ended on a short incompletion to Cook. 

 

Drive 2 ended on a 5-yard pass to Kincaid on 3rd-and-6. 

 

Drive 3 ended on a short incompletion to Knox.  

 

Drive 4 ended on 1-yard pass to Murray on 3rd-and-7.  

 

Drive 5 resulted in a TD to Diggs.  

 

Drive 6 ended on an Allen throwaway incompletion.  

 

Drive 7 ended on a deep incompletion to Knox.  

 

Drive 8 ended on an INT intended for Diggs.  

 

Drive 9 resulted in a TD to Davis. 

 

Drive 10 resulted in an Allen TD run.  

 

Drive 11 ended on a Diggs' fumble.  

 

On our scoring drives, here is the total breakdown by player:  

 

Murray:  2 carries for 6 yards 

Harty:  2 catches for 62 yards 

Cook:  2 catches for 25 yards, 1 run for -2 yards 

Allen:  3 runs for 15 yards and 1 TD  

Diggs:  3 catches for 29 yards and 1 TD

Davis:  4 catches for 82 yards and 1 TD  

Knox:  1 catch for 11 yards 

Sherfield:  1 catch for 3 yards 

Shakir:  1 catch for 11 yards 

 

FWIW  

 

 

[colin]

This is a reasonable point, but where our o really failed was on first down, and up the gut runs out of shotgun.

 

We just don't out pressure on the opponents d when we don't move the ball on first down.  On our two late scoring drives, you could tell out the gate they were good because we hit plays right away, and fairly quickly.  On the rest save one it was just slow and meandering or we got blown up fast.

 

The shotgun hand offs for losses or maybe a short gain gave to go.  They serve no purpose, they make the d account for nothing.  No one has ever bought our play action out of shotgun, rpos and under center play action kills guys, but that one play just has to go.

 

I think the two are related.  Good ds just know a few of our tendencies and attack because that's they only way to stop us.  Mcd needs to scout our own o like he did Miami and show Dorsey what has to get cut out.

[GunnerBill]

56 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

I realize that.  My point is that our D clearly wasn't as good with Milano out.  I wasn't paying attention to who was playing the LB positions, and I do note that I saw some numbers that I wasn't familiar with, aka depth players.  

 

My point is entirely that it was risky entering the season with only Milano as a standout LB.  Yeah, Bernard had a good game, I thought that Williams played admirably from what I caught as well.  

 

Again, I don't know why, but allowin nearly 200 rushing yards is a problem.  I haven't looked at why yet, not sure I'm going to.  Time consuming and it is what it is.  I'm focused on the offense this season.  I don't care how good our D is, or conversely isn't, IMO that's not what's going to determine our record or our chances in the playoffs.  I obviously don't speak for everyone, you know that my take is that our defense has failed us in the playoffs and that IMO we'll have a record-setting offense this season.  I still stand by that.  

 

I know your take, if I suggested otherwise it wasn't deliberate.   

 

 

Well, last week we had everyone and still allowed nearly 400 net yards.  Again, w/o the key TOs last week,that game is much tighter.  

 

But let's not leap-frog what IMO is the point to all of this, IMO we overrated our defense based upon our play vs. Wilson/Jets' O, Garropalo/Raider's O, and Howell/Skins' O.  Everyone pointed out about our Point Differential, while I pointed out that we've allowed over 100 yards per game more than last season through four games, which IMO was significant given the sentence prior to this one.  As it now stands, last season we allowed an average of 240 YPG while this season we're allowing 325 YPG, last season through 5 games, 61 points, this season, 80 points.  A little of that may have to do with today's game, but hardly all of it.  

 

My point is not necessarily that this D is worse than last season's D, but that last week everyone was arguing that hands down "McD's D was better than Frazier's."  I didn't necessarily see that either.  But by the same standard, what, in one week it went from better to worse?  ... just playing devil's advocate here for the forum. 

 

 

 

I don't think our defense was overrated through 4 weeks. It was playing incredibly well bar some alignment issues in the first game. What happened today was they ended up talent deficient and that is what showed up. Nothing more, nothing less. 

 

Not Xs and Os. Jimmies and Joes. If a defense of:

 

AJE - Oliver - Phillips - Vickers

Lewis - Bernard - Dodson

Elam - Hyde - Poyer - Jackson 

 

Played 17 games it would finish bottom or very close to bottom in all categories. 

[PBF81]

15 minutes ago, colin said:

This is a reasonable point, but where our o really failed was on first down, and up the gut runs out of shotgun.

 

We just don't out pressure on the opponents d when we don't move the ball on first down.  On our two late scoring drives, you could tell out the gate they were good because we hit plays right away, and fairly quickly.  On the rest save one it was just slow and meandering or we got blown up fast.

 

The shotgun hand offs for losses or maybe a short gain gave to go.  They serve no purpose, they make the d account for nothing.  No one has ever bought our play action out of shotgun, rpos and under center play action kills guys, but that one play just has to go.

 

I think the two are related.  Good ds just know a few of our tendencies and attack because that's they only way to stop us.  Mcd needs to scout our own o like he did Miami and show Dorsey what has to get cut out.

 

You raised an interesting proposition.  I have no immediate thoughts on this, but here are our 1st-Down plays from today.  

 

FWIW ... 

 

1:  Cook right guard for 5 

2:  Cook right guard for -1 

3:  Allen incomplete short right 

4:  Allen complete to Knox for 1 on 1st-and-10 

--------

5:  Allen short right to Diggs for 15 on 1st-and-10 

6:  Allen short left to Davis for 9 on 1st-and-10 

7:  Allen incomplete short right to Diggs 

8:  Allen short middle to Cook for 18 on 1st-and-10 

9:  Allen 7-yard scramble on 1st-and-10 

10:  Allen short right to Diggs for 6 on 1st-and-10 

11:  Allen short right to Diggs for 15/TD on 1st-and-10 

--------

12:  Allen short right to Diggs for 14 yards on 1st-and-10 

13:  Cook RT for no gain 

14:  Allen deep to Diggs for 48 yards on 1st-and-10 

15:  Allen short right to Cook for no gain on 1st-and-10 

--------

16:  Allen short middle to Kincaid on 1st-and-10 

17:  Harris RG for 5 yards on 1st-and-10 

18:  Allen deep right to Davis for 24 on 1st-and-20 

19:  Allen short left to Knox for 11 on 1st-and-20 

20:  Allen short left to Sherfield for 3 on 1st-and-10 

21:  Cook UTM for -2 on 1st-and-10 

22:  Allen incomplete short right to Diggs on 1st-and-Goal at the 9  

23:  Allen deep left to Harty for 43 on 1st-and-10 

24:  Allen deep left to Davis for 29 on 1st-and-10 

25:  Allen incomplete on a throwaway 

26:  Allen deep right to Diggs for 16 on 1st-and-10, Diggs fumbled 

 

 

[Ralonzo]

4 hours ago, RiotAct said:

didn’t we end up forcing a punt eventually anyway?  Granted, from 30-40  yards further upfield.

 

It flipped the momentum that had been snatched by the end of 1st half TD and AJE's triple play.

[Joe Ferguson]

7 hours ago, Beast said:

I hope the Bills don’t make the same mistake by paying “big play Gabe” as they did with stone hands Knox and sign him long term.

Dropson Knox making 14 million a year to drop balls. A great gig if you can get it.

[PBF81]

18 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think our defense was overrated through 4 weeks. It was playing incredibly well bar some alignment issues in the first game. What happened today was they ended up talent deficient and that is what showed up. Nothing more, nothing less. 

 

Not Xs and Os. Jimmies and Joes. If a defense of:

 

AJE - Oliver - Phillips - Vickers

Lewis - Bernard - Dodson

Elam - Hyde - Poyer - Jackson 

 

Played 17 games it would finish bottom or very close to bottom in all categories. 

 

Yes, I realize that you didn't think it was overrated.  I said that I suggested the likely possibility that it was.  I don't expect you or anyone to agree.  

 

The rest sounds like a Beane problem.  

 

When your team is all but entirely reliant upon two or three players, in this case Jones, Milano, White, and a nickel back, for a drop from near 1st in D ranking to as you suggest above, "bottom or very close to bottom," then it's gotta be a GM issue.   Especially when you consider that we were without White for most of last season, Hyde for all of it, Poyer limited, and otherwise hardly without any key injuries despite the one overlapping one of White.  

 

 

[BananaB]

7 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

When we go to this short passing offense, it’s all about execution. Can’t have penalties or drops, or you get “off schedule.” 
 

 

Can’t have negative run plays on every drive

[DrDawkinstein]

Tell me if I'm wrong here, and I havent gone back and done the play analysis some of you have, but IIRC...

 

There were a couple 3rd downs that Josh could have run with the ball and likely picked up the first down, and even started to, and then pulled up and tried to toss it instead which resulted in a drop/incompletion and drive kill. I feel it happened at least twice, maybe once to Knox?

 

 

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Yes, I realize that you didn't think it was overrated.  I said that I suggested the likely possibility that it was.  I don't expect you or anyone to agree.  

 

The rest sounds like a Beane problem.  

 

When your team is all but entirely reliant upon two or three players, in this case Jones, Milano, White, and a nickel back, for a drop from near 1st in D ranking to as you suggest above, "bottom or very close to bottom," then it's gotta be a GM issue.   Especially when you consider that we were without White for most of last season, Hyde for all of it, Poyer limited, and otherwise hardly without any key injuries despite the one overlapping one of White.  

 

 

 

Milano, White, Rousseau, Von Miller, Daquan Jones. 

 

I mean those 5, plus Oliver, are our best defensive players. Take 5 of the 6 best defensive players off ANY defense in the NFL and they struggle. I don't think that is a GM issue. It is an injury issue. 

 

The only place where you can, IMO, point to Beane based on defensive performance so far is at safety. You expressed that concern in pre-season (and I agreed it was a legit concern) about two old safeties both coming off injury. So far it does look like bringing both back was an error. We look slow back there. That might be a GM mistake. The rest is just injuries that tbh no team in the league would be able to sustain without significant drop off. 

[Thurman#1]

17 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Plenty of other factors from injuries to horrific refs that contributed to this loss, but we had 4 drives ended by dropped passes and that’s all in our control.  Would have been 5 too but a penalty negated the play.  
 

Cook, Knox, Diggs, Davis all dropped passes that killed our drives which would have been first downs, with Davis having a second drop for a first down erased off the stat sheet by a penalty.

 

Feels like the only people who showed up to play with any fire today was Allen, Diggs and AJE.  Milano and Daquan get a pass as they were hurt.

 

But the dropped passes in a game where refs were working against us were just killers.

 

 

Allen played decently, but not as well as he has been, IMO.

 

That first drive-ending drop is a good example. Cook got his hands on it, but for a very short pass, it was drilled and enough off-target to make it a hard catch to make. There were a few others like that. He really got it together late, but it was just a bit too late. Lots of blame to go around, especially on the offense. The whole group just looked jet lagged through most of the game.

 

I'd throw some of the blame on whoever decided to wait till so late in the week to travel.

 

That was hard to watch.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

7 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Allen played decently, but not as well as he has been, IMO.

 

That first drive-ending drop is a good example. Cook got his hands on it, but for a very short pass, it was drilled and enough off-target to make it a hard catch to make. There were a few others like that. He really got it together late, but it was just a bit too late. Lots of blame to go around, especially on the offense. The whole group just looked jet lagged through most of the game.

 

I'd throw some of the blame on whoever decided to wait till so late in the week to travel.

 

That was hard to watch.

The travel issue seems to be a major talking point. I really don’t know what research the Bills used here.

 

I think I also heard someone say the plan was to stay up all day Friday after flying in. So they likely were exhausted Saturday. I don’t think 1 day is enough to get your energy back. But I’m not a sports scientist.

 

When you’re exhausted is when injuries can happen.

Edited October 9, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

The travel issue seems to be a major talking point. I really don’t know what research the Bills used here.

 

I think I also heard someone say the plan was to stay up all day Friday after flying in. So they likely were exhausted Saturday. I don’t think 1 day is enough to get your energy back. But I’m not a sports scientist.

 

When you’re exhausted is when injuries can happen.

 

Agree. Although I don't think a factor in the Milano injury. I think that was just one of those unfortunate things that can happen. The turf was more of a factor in that than the exhaustion / jetlag IMO.

[Augie]

18 hours ago, Goin Breakdown said:

Penalties sucked and they sure were called against the Bills. Hard to imagine that Jags played "so disciplined"  

 

Maybe they benefitted from the lack of jet lag and the home field advantage. That idiotic arrangement should have been laughed out of the room when it was first mentioned. 

[Mr. WEO]

18 hours ago, SCBills said:

The Gabe drop was a killer. 
 

We finally had momentum.  Puts us from being 1st down in FG range, down 4 with plenty of time left, to 3rd and long / punt. 

 

 

lol "a killer"...with 13;52 left in the 3rd Q down by 4???

 

this place...

[Matt_In_NH]

18 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:

The Knox one wasn’t really a drop, but I still fault him for not making a play/creating separation 

 

The diggs one- are you referring to the 1st down pass that Josh threw to the back shoulder?

I was trying to remember a Knox drop.   We are counting the play where it got a hand on the overthrow as a drop?   Next thread…

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

3 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

lol "a killer"...with 13;52 left in the 3rd Q down by 4???

 

this place...

it's something, isn't it?

[JerseyBills]

18 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Unfortunately Diggs getting the ball ripped out of his hands by a 5'9 CB was the most impactful of them all. I would say bare minimum all of the drops together took at the very least 10 points off the board, and forced a banged up defense to keep coming back on the field. Make no mistake - the Bills skill position players lost this game.

The 3&outs killed us. Jags dominated t.o.p and plays ran. They wore us out and still we had a legit chance at winning if not for key drops and penalties. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Agree. Although I don't think a factor in the Milano injury. I think that was just one of those unfortunate things that can happen. The turf was more of a factor in that than the exhaustion / jetlag IMO.

Who knows. I have trouble getting mad at the turf when everyone is playing on it. Bills have turf. 
 

 

 

[DrDawkinstein]

10 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Tell me if I'm wrong here, and I havent gone back and done the play analysis some of you have, but IIRC...

 

There were a couple 3rd downs that Josh could have run with the ball and likely picked up the first down, and even started to, and then pulled up and tried to toss it instead which resulted in a drop/incompletion and drive kill. I feel it happened at least twice, maybe once to Knox?

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Matt_In_NH said:

I was trying to remember a Knox drop.   We are counting the play where it got a hand on the overthrow as a drop?   Next thread…

 

Exactly what I was referring to above, thank you.

 

Some of the "drops" mentioned in this thread were just bad throws by Josh after making the bad decision to throw it instead of just tucking it and running for 5 yards.

 

I know a lot of fans and coaches want him to stop running, but yesterday was when we needed it the most. When nothing else can get going, we needed a couple of pick up from Josh's legs. The problem is he has been coached to well to hang in and try to make a throw and not do it all himself.

 

Tough situation for him. Damned if he does, damned if he doesnt. That's why I fall back on coaching needing to be able to see that and let him know. The problem is our HC was probably too busy being the DC and trying to figure out what was going on on D with all those injuries.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

19 hours ago, Blackbeard said:

It’s sucks 4 passes were dropped. 
it happens.  Sometimes it’s a lot.  Sometimes it’s one or two. Sometimes it’s the wr.  Sometimes it’s the throw. 
 

And sometimes drops are rare (see: 48 pts).  

 

and drops happen to all teams.  
 

It’s more normal than you think and doesn’t mean gut everyone.  Dropped balls are part of the game.  No wr catches 100%. 
 

 

gonna go root for our farm team against the dolphins. 
 

 

 

 

Just like the QB occaisionally sailing them.  It was unfortunate.  

1 hour ago, Matt_In_NH said:

I was trying to remember a Knox drop.   We are counting the play where it got a hand on the overthrow as a drop?   Next thread…

 

1st quarter.  Allen rolled right and threw it fairly low, but what felt like catchable.  I'd have to see the play to confirm full on drop or not, but they didn't show like any replays on TV. 

[HappyDays]

5 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

lol "a killer"...with 13;52 left in the 3rd Q down by 4???

 

Yes! This game turned into a gritty defensive struggle. It was 11-7 at that point in the game. Every single 1st down in a game like that matters. That being a catch would have at the very least moved the chains, kept the defense on the sidelines longer, and led to us scoring a minimum of 3 points. That was absolutely a huge momentum swing. You're crazy if you try to pretend it wasn't.

 

And now I see Bills fans today pointing to Davis's final stat line as if that wipes away his crushing mistake on a simple pitch and catch? Davis had just 28 yards before the Jaguars went up two scores halfway through the 4th quarter. It was nice of him to wake up at the same time the Jaguars defense started sleepwalking with an assumed victory wrapped up, but overall that is a piss poor performance from WR2.

[PBF81]

13 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Milano, White, Rousseau, Von Miller, Daquan Jones. 

 

I mean those 5, plus Oliver, are our best defensive players. Take 5 of the 6 best defensive players off ANY defense in the NFL and they struggle. I don't think that is a GM issue. It is an injury issue. 

 

You know that we're going to disagree here.  

 

My argument, and realize that I understand that we disagree, so just posing this as I view it, but White and Miller were out most of last season and we adjusted well.  Rousseau disappeared after his first four or five games too.  He'll be back too, so it's not as if he's out for the season.  

 

Jones is a loss, but let's look at reality here, the past three seasons we've started out strong defensively, as a team.  It's seemed to me that we get a little too amped up at the beginning of the seasons as if thinking that if we go 5-1 or 6-0 we've achieved some kind of victory or something, and at the expense of later season consistent play.  

 

Having said that, we have no idea that Jones would have played all that strongly all season, and at 32, and amidst a team that has been playing emotionally high from a defensive perspective, he's a sack away from his former season best and 1 TFL away as well.  I find it unlikely that he was going to continue to play like that, at 32, for the other dozen games.  So I'm not willing to put him into that status.  He's already outplayed himself from all 16 games last season.  It's quite possible that much like Rousseau he would have largely disappeared much of the rest of the season going forward.  There's nothing in his recent history to suggest that he would have posted the season that would ultimately render him one of the best players on the team.  

 

And frankly, when a DT that got a 2-year contract for $14M is "one of your best players," yeah, I'll put that into the GM wheelhouse for accounability.  There obviously wasn't an enormous demand for his services.  He has absolutely zero particular career accolades, so we need to stop talking about him as if he were Kyle Williams.  

 

Milano is obviously a huge loss, and you should also remember me having said numerous times that should Milano go down, then we'd be screwed at LB.  

 

I have no idea what alignments we're playing on D, it's unconventional to be sure.  They're erratic at best.  I haven't see another team do what we do.  I've expressed that earlier and no one pointed out any that have.  I don't watch much outside of highlights outside of here.  But we don't play a traditional 4-3 nor a 3-4.  

 

I will give McD credit for that, but it's also a chicken-egg thing.  

 

Anyway, Milano was our only above average LB and the "glue" that held that unit together and allowed for its adapability and versatility.  We're presently left with a bunch of average LBs at best, and a role-player in Floyd. 

 

But at the end of the day, my question is always going to be, which player that we drafted is there to step up?  

 

That's definitely a GM issue, at least to some significant extent, disagree as we may.  

 

Either way, take your list and remove the three players we were without for 2/3 of last season either in performance (Rousseau) or injury (White, Miller), and here's what we have; 

 

Milano, White, Rousseau, Von Miller, Daquan Jones.  

 

I'm not sure I'm willing to cut the kind of slack that McD's going to end up getting over the loss of those two.  Milano yes, but again, that's entirely due to poor planning in six seasons by Beane.  

 

 

13 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

The only place where you can, IMO, point to Beane based on defensive performance so far is at safety. You expressed that concern in pre-season (and I agreed it was a legit concern) about two old safeties both coming off injury. So far it does look like bringing both back was an error. We look slow back there. That might be a GM mistake. The rest is just injuries that tbh no team in the league would be able to sustain without significant drop off. 

 

IMO it is a GM issue.  Not sure I'd use the word mistake, but to the point.  

 

Keep in mind however that we signed Rapp, who is a very capable replacement, and possibly even better than Poyer at this point.  Either way, it's not such a dropoff that it should be all that.  

 

We agree, I think, that the single biggest issue of it is Milano.  McD has had to shift players around in unconventional alignments due to the lack of a much above average LB next to Milano, so we're about to see what the "defensive genius" does now, as well as how good our LBs after Milano truly are.  But plenty of teams lose a starting LB and their D doesn't fall apart.  The Jets lost Moseley several seasons ago for the season and their D was better than it was either the year prior or after.  If ours does, then obviously it has to do with drafting, aka the GM.  

 

Just my two cents as usual.  

 

But talk about overreacting here, the only consistently performing player 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

42 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

You know that we're going to disagree here.  

 

My argument, and realize that I understand that we disagree, so just posing this as I view it, but White and Miller were out most of last season and we adjusted well.  Rousseau disappeared after his first four or five games too.  He'll be back too, so it's not as if he's out for the season.  

 

Jones is a loss, but let's look at reality here, the past three seasons we've started out strong defensively, as a team.  It's seemed to me that we get a little too amped up at the beginning of the seasons as if thinking that if we go 5-1 or 6-0 we've achieved some kind of victory or something, and at the expense of later season consistent play.  

 

Having said that, we have no idea that Jones would have played all that strongly all season, and at 32, and amidst a team that has been playing emotionally high from a defensive perspective, he's a sack away from his former season best and 1 TFL away as well.  I find it unlikely that he was going to continue to play like that, at 32, for the other dozen games.  So I'm not willing to put him into that status.  He's already outplayed himself from all 16 games last season.  It's quite possible that much like Rousseau he would have largely disappeared much of the rest of the season going forward.  There's nothing in his recent history to suggest that he would have posted the season that would ultimately render him one of the best players on the team.  

 

And frankly, when a DT that got a 2-year contract for $14M is "one of your best players," yeah, I'll put that into the GM wheelhouse for accounability.  There obviously wasn't an enormous demand for his services.  He has absolutely zero particular career accolades, so we need to stop talking about him as if he were Kyle Williams.  

 

Milano is obviously a huge loss, and you should also remember me having said numerous times that should Milano go down, then we'd be screwed at LB.  

 

I have no idea what alignments we're playing on D, it's unconventional to be sure.  They're erratic at best.  I haven't see another team do what we do.  I've expressed that earlier and no one pointed out any that have.  I don't watch much outside of highlights outside of here.  But we don't play a traditional 4-3 nor a 3-4.  

 

I will give McD credit for that, but it's also a chicken-egg thing.  

 

Anyway, Milano was our only above average LB and the "glue" that held that unit together and allowed for its adapability and versatility.  We're presently left with a bunch of average LBs at best, and a role-player in Floyd. 

 

But at the end of the day, my question is always going to be, which player that we drafted is there to step up?  

 

That's definitely a GM issue, at least to some significant extent, disagree as we may.  

 

Either way, take your list and remove the three players we were without for 2/3 of last season either in performance (Rousseau) or injury (White, Miller), and here's what we have; 

 

Milano, White, Rousseau, Von Miller, Daquan Jones.  

 

I'm not sure I'm willing to cut the kind of slack that McD's going to end up getting over the loss of those two.  Milano yes, but again, that's entirely due to poor planning in six seasons by Beane.  

 

 

 

IMO it is a GM issue.  Not sure I'd use the word mistake, but to the point.  

 

Keep in mind however that we signed Rapp, who is a very capable replacement, and possibly even better than Poyer at this point.  Either way, it's not such a dropoff that it should be all that.  

 

We agree, I think, that the single biggest issue of it is Milano.  McD has had to shift players around in unconventional alignments due to the lack of a much above average LB next to Milano, so we're about to see what the "defensive genius" does now, as well as how good our LBs after Milano truly are.  But plenty of teams lose a starting LB and their D doesn't fall apart.  The Jets lost Moseley several seasons ago for the season and their D was better than it was either the year prior or after.  If ours does, then obviously it has to do with drafting, aka the GM.  

 

Just my two cents as usual.  

 

But talk about overreacting here, the only consistently performing player 

 

 

 

The Bills ended up on Sunday with a PS defensive tackle playing defensive end on the first unit (he is at best their 7th choice at the position). The other defensive end out there is probably their 4th best guy when everyone is healthy. So whether you think Rousseau was average or whatever last year (he was better than that) the drop off from him to what was out there yesterday is still significant. They were down both starting corners. And then while I agree with you re. Daquan Jones's career and the lack of demand for his services (I have said that myself recently in response to people who were desperate to extend him) there is absolutely zero doubt that he has been a really important and consistent player in this defense since he signed. And then they also lost their best defensive player a first team all pro last year who was trending that way again. That explains what happened yesterday (plus Taron missing some plays though he returned to the game). It is really simple. They ran out of players.

 

If the Bills had to play that defense without all those guys the rest of the year it would be a bottom feeder defense. And that wouldn't be a GM problem. It would be an injury problem. Luckily, they don't. They have lost 3 important players for the year. Two of the 3 former first team all pros on this unit and Jones. That hurts. But Floyd isn't serious by the looks of it and they will get Rousseau, Von, Kingsley and Shaq all back healthy. Add that to AJE who has really come on since the middle of last season they should still have some horses to rush the passer. They will get Benford back and that helps at corner. They will miss Jones but they at least have some vet depth there (even if neither Settle nor Ford really float my boat much). Milano is the biggest miss. He is our best defensive player. It is like taking Chris Jones off the Chiefs (they are immediately noticeably worse) or Nick Bosa off the 49ers (when he missed most of 2020 they went from 6th in sacks in 2019 to 27th in sacks). You can't replace those elite players. Nobody in the NFL can. That is why when you lose them it sucks so hard. 

 

In short I expect the Bills defense to still be top half of the league. But without the 3 guys it has lost for the year it won't be top 5 IMO. However, if they had to end up with the guys who were on the field at the end of the game yesterday playing all year across the board.... then they would be towards the bottom of the league defensively. 

 

And one final point... injuries were a problem on defense at the end of last season too. I have said it they were without Von at the end of the year, had Tre not back to his best and then Oliver and Poyer held together by sticky tape and Jones missed the playoff loss too. 

 

The pattern here is simple.... when you take or severely handicap 5 or 6 starter off a defense and they are among the best players on that defense the defensive performance declines. That is the NFL. 

 

EDIT: please do not do your usual and stretch this to "the GM is blameless." Because I haven't said that. I have talked to you before about the fact that there are legit questions in my mind as to some of the team building decisions. And I have even agreed with you on some of them (e.g. going with two old safeties off injuries and the middle linebacker position as it looked before the season). But putting the collapse of the defense at the end of the game yesterday down as a "GM issue" is ridiculous. It was an injury issue.

Edited October 9, 2023 by GunnerBill

[Warriorspikes51]

On 10/8/2023 at 1:39 PM, Alpo Chino said:

Yes. One the more frustrating games I've seen in years. Dropped balls, we kept coming up a yard short on 3rd downs. Reffing. 

Every Jacksonville game is like this. 

[RoyBatty is alive]

On 10/8/2023 at 12:33 PM, mannc said:

I don’t recall a Diggs drop…

the pass at the end of the game that ended in an interception was worse than a drop.  Diggs is allegedly elite, you dont let a defender beat you for the ball if you are one of the top WRs in the ke4ague.

 

I am amazed more people arent mentioning this.  That alone was enough to turn the outcome of the game, Digggs cant lose that ball.

[Mr. WEO]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Yes! This game turned into a gritty defensive struggle. It was 11-7 at that point in the game. Every single 1st down in a game like that matters. That being a catch would have at the very least moved the chains, kept the defense on the sidelines longer, and led to us scoring a minimum of 3 points. That was absolutely a huge momentum swing. You're crazy if you try to pretend it wasn't.

 

And now I see Bills fans today pointing to Davis's final stat line as if that wipes away his crushing mistake on a simple pitch and catch? Davis had just 28 yards before the Jaguars went up two scores halfway through the 4th quarter. It was nice of him to wake up at the same time the Jaguars defense started sleepwalking with an assumed victory wrapped up, but overall that is a piss poor performance from WR2.

it was 1 minute after halftime ended. So, It’s a ridiculous point.  They were down by 4.  There was half a game to be played.  Davis provided several of the biggest plays on their subsequent scoring drives.

 

this is just more totally mindless Davis bashing.  He played a very solid game.  

[BADOLBILZ]

6 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Some of the "drops" mentioned in this thread were just bad throws by Josh after making the bad decision to throw it instead of just tucking it and running for 5 yards.

 

 

Knox had a drop prior to the play where Allen overthrew him while on the run.

[Royale with Cheese]

My dogs thought they were in trouble when Gabe Davis dropped the ball on that 10 yard stop.

I had to let them know they didn't drop the ball.

[Alphadawg7]

6 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Knox had a drop prior to the play where Allen overthrew him while on the run.

 

Yes, this is the play I am referring to that was one of our first few drives.  

[HappyDays]

8 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

it was 1 minute after halftime ended. So, It’s a ridiculous point.  They were down by 4.  There was half a game to be played.  Davis provided several of the biggest plays on their subsequent scoring drives.

 

this is just more totally mindless Davis bashing.  He played a very solid game.  

 

Through 3.5 quarters our WR2 had 28 yards. Very solid? That's crazy. He has an elite WR1 garnering all of the attention across from him and he can't separate from man coverage. On an extremely simple pitch and catch he let the ball get into his body and bounce off his hands. In a game with no margin for error for a myriad of reasons, two drive-killing drops from usual suspects Davis and Knox were big momentum swings. If this was a one-off single game issue you can live with it but it's instead a persistent issue that has directly led to us missing out on the #1 seed each of the past 3 seasons.

[Alphadawg7]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Through 3.5 quarters our WR2 had 28 yards. Very solid? That's crazy. He has an elite WR1 garnering all of the attention across from him and he can't separate from man coverage. On an extremely simple pitch and catch he let the ball get into his body and bounce off his hands. In a game with no margin for error for a myriad of reasons, two drive-killing drops from usual suspects Davis and Knox were big momentum swings. If this was a one-off single game issue you can live with it but it's instead a persistent issue that has directly led to us missing out on the #1 seed each of the past 3 seasons.

 

Davis also had a 2nd drive killing bad drop on 3rd down.  But, an unrelated penalty negated the play so the drop is wiped from his resume, but doesn't change the fact he dropped a 2nd drive killing pass on 3rd down.

[BADOLBILZ]

16 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

it was 1 minute after halftime ended. So, It’s a ridiculous point.  They were down by 4.  There was half a game to be played.  Davis provided several of the biggest plays on their subsequent scoring drives.

 

this is just more totally mindless Davis bashing.  He played a very solid game.  

 

 

The extra fatigue impacts the emotions of the team and I agree with the OP that those bad drops were particularly deflating to the Bills and created a lot of space for the Jags to stick to their gameplan.  

 

Not the first time we've seen an exhausted Bills team on a roller coaster like this in an international game. 

[Mr. WEO]

17 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Through 3.5 quarters our WR2 had 28 yards. Very solid? That's crazy. He has an elite WR1 garnering all of the attention across from him and he can't separate from man coverage. On an extremely simple pitch and catch he let the ball get into his body and bounce off his hands. In a game with no margin for error for a myriad of reasons, two drive-killing drops from usual suspects Davis and Knox were big momentum swings. If this was a one-off single game issue you can live with it but it's instead a persistent issue that has directly led to us missing out on the #1 seed each of the past 3 seasons.

 

 

 

13 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Davis also had a 2nd drive killing bad drop on 3rd down.  But, an unrelated penalty negated the play so the drop is wiped from his resume, but doesn't change the fact he dropped a 2nd drive killing pass on 3rd down.

 

so....a SECOND   drop that was negated by penalty was still "game killing"?  lol that's pretty funny actually.  So that means he actually caught 2 back to back sweet TD catches in the 4th Q!!  

 

anyway , this was Davis's day:

 

in the 1st Q, Davis had 1 catch for 9 yards on a 2nd and 10. 

 

2nd Q catch for 9 on 1st and 10

2nd Q catch for 10 on 3rd and 4 to 15 yard line. Bills score next play

 

3rd Q  drop by Davis on 3rd and 10 1:05 into the 2nd half with score still 11-7.  JAGs would punt on the next series.  Still 11-7

3rd Q  incomplete to Davis on 2nd and 10.  Score was still 11-7, 8;10 left in the 3rd Q.   Where's that pendulum?

 

Bills D gives up 4th Q TD 

 

 

4th Q catch for 24 yards.  later in the drive beautiful 9 yard TD catch.  Nullified.  immediately followed by beautiful 19 yard TD catch, bringing the score to within 5.

 

Bills D give up another 4th Q TD

 

4th Q catch for 29 yards to the 3 on 1st and 10.  Bills score 2 plays later, brining them again within 5.

 

The elite WR1's contested pass ending up as an INT was the actual play that killed them, not one dropped pass on 3rd down a minute into the second half.  Diggs also negated a TD with a OPI penalty.  In the 4th Q, Diggs had 4 targets for the INT 2 catches for 13 yards.  

 

The 4th Q was all Davis and Allen. The deep catch to the 3 set up a TD.  Then a TD called back--immediately followed by another great TD catch.  So that's catches for 24, 19 and 29 yards on scoring drives.  NOT SOLID ENOUGH!!!!!  lol

 

your bias has led you to lose your minds.

 

 

3 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The extra fatigue impacts the emotions of the team and I agree with the OP that those bad drops were particularly deflating to the Bills and created a lot of space for the Jags to stick to their gameplan.  

 

Not the first time we've seen an exhausted Bills team on a roller coaster like this in an international game. 

 

I don't think the Jags gameplan was to go scoreless for 12 minutes in the 3rd Q after Davis's "game killing" drop a minute into the Q.

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

In short I expect the Bills defense to still be top half of the league. But without the 3 guys it has lost for the year it won't be top 5 IMO. However, if they had to end up with the guys who were on the field at the end of the game yesterday playing all year across the board.... then they would be towards the bottom of the league defensively.  

 

I'm not sure what we disagree on primarily here.  Seems as if we generally believe similarly with the exception that I contribute it to a depth and poor drafting issue related to depth, if not starters, particularly since Beane didn't even draft White or Milano to begin with. 

 

You say it's an injury issue, which is obvious.  But the question becomes who's backing up those players.  And again, White was out most of last season.  Put another way, there's no difference from last season and the games he was out and this one in the games that he'll be out.  Same for Miller's status.  

 

So yes, it's obviously an injury issue, but my point is that who are the depth players capable of stepping in to prevent the tragedy that you've referred to under certain circumstances?  

 

Also, I was addressing your statement that we'd be a bottom-dwelling D now, which you've since edited.  

 

Either way, you seem to have been referring to hypotheticals whereas I was referring to reality.  Jones isn't out for the season.  What's Johnson's injury?  How long?  

 

From what I can tell the only players lost for the season at the moment are White and Milano.  And as I outlined, other players have lost a key LB, like the Jets losing Mosely several seasons ago, and played decently, and better than they had in the prior season or subsequent season.  Many other teams lose a key player on D even two or three and still play solid D.  

 

Again, I blame the lack of adequate depth on Beane resultant from injuries, that I've been pointing out now for at least two seasons, that if Milano ever went down we'd be screwed at LB, so this isn't exactly an "experts" only puzzle.  

 

You stop at the injury part of it.  Look, I get it.  But we need to realize that's where we disagree.  Backfills for injuries are #GMthingz.  You say, apparently, that they're merely injuries and that adequate depth is something other than a GM thing by implication.  

 

I get it.  No need to argue further.  But please understand the difference.  

 

 

[GunnerBill]

Just now, PBF81 said:

 

I'm not sure what we disagree on primarily here.  Seems as if we generally believe similarly with the exception that I contribute it to a depth and poor drafting issue related to depth, if not starters, particularly since Beane didn't even draft White or Milano to begin with. 

 

You say it's an injury issue, which is obvious.  But the question becomes who's backing up those players.  And again, White was out most of last season.  Put another way, there's no difference from last season and the games he was out and this one in the games that he'll be out.  Same for Miller's status.  

 

So yes, it's obviously an injury issue, but my point is that who are the depth players capable of stepping in to prevent the tragedy that you've referred to under certain circumstances?  

 

Also, I was addressing your statement that we'd be a bottom-dwelling D now, which you've since edited.  

 

Either way, you seem to have been referring to hypotheticals whereas I was referring to reality.  Jones isn't out for the season.  What's Johnson's injury?  How long?  

 

From what I can tell the only players lost for the season at the moment are White and Milano.  And as I outlined, other players have lost a key LB, like the Jets losing Mosely several seasons ago, and played decently, and better than they had in the prior season or subsequent season.  Many other teams lose a key player on D even two or three and still play solid D.  

 

Again, I blame the lack of adequate depth on Beane resultant from injuries, that I've been pointing out now for at least two seasons, that if Milano ever went down we'd be screwed at LB, so this isn't exactly an "experts" only puzzle.  

 

You stop at the injury part of it.  Look, I get it.  But we need to realize that's where we disagree.  Backfills for injuries are #GMthingz.  You say, apparently, that they're merely injuries and that adequate depth is something other than a GM thing by implication.  

 

I get it.  No need to argue further.  But please understand the difference.  

 

 

 

There is simply no way to backfill for losing your best players. No GM in the entire NFL has a replacement for Matt Milano sitting on the bench. 

 

Oh and Jones is having surgery. That is confirmed. He is done for the year. 

 

And I never changed my view on bottom dwellers. That was always specific to the defense that finished the game yesterday. I was very clear about that. They won't have to put up with that D. They have some guys to come back. But they have lost two first team all pros and another key defensive starter for the year. Show me another unit (offense or defense) in the entire league that has already lost that level of player for the season. 

 

Every team has injuries. Not every team has this. And when teams do they generally struggle to make the playoffs. I will say something you will probably agree with now.... I think the Bills are shooting for a wildcard at this point. These are back breaking injuries on D.