Mikie2times Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 I have been looking at a lot of splits involving Josh the last month and this is one that really stood out to me. Josh was Blitzed relentlessly in 2019, 2020, and 2021. If you look at times Josh was blitzed on 45% or more of his passes, none of them came in 2022. It happened 16 total times prior. Teams did have some success in this style when the %'s really ratcheted up. I can only presume when the blitz % got 50% or higher it was also probably working. These were those games Then something changed last year. Josh has been blitzed 20% or less 14 times since 2019, half of those times came in 2022, but to me, it's much more telling how our division rivals played us. (Blitz % is on the far right) Jets Patriots Dolphins This is a massive change. Pre 2022, we played 18 divisional regular season games, 0 of them resulted in a Blitz % below 20%. In 2022, ALL OF THEM DID In trying to understand when this trend really started, it appears like the Miami game or Jets game. But if you look before that point. Tennessee always played us like this and Pittsburgh certainly decided to do so as that game plan was so out of character for them. So when we think what changed so much in the back half of 2022. Certainly his injury plays into it. I also wonder, did teams just start playing us more in the mold of bend but don't break? If that is the case, did we ever find out an answer in how we beat that approach? 9 1 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brand J Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 Josh needs to look for his RBs and TEs more. Dorsey deserves a lot of blame for some stuff and I know it’s popular to blame him for not designing plays specifically to those positions, but TEs and RBs were open. That’s on Josh to find them if his receivers are blanketed. I think Josh’s numbers against zone coverage last year were his worst since 2019. Part of that is pressure from up front, so the OL needs to do a better job sustaining blocks and allowing him to get into his reads. It’s never one player, one position, or one coach; it’s the totality of it all. 2 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beck Water Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 So what happens when you blitz a guy? That's one less player to cover and if the QB gets out of the pocket, one less player to contain and pursue. To the OP - what did the Bengals game look like? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikie2times Posted May 12, 2023 Author Share Posted May 12, 2023 (edited) 11 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said: Josh needs to look for his RBs and TEs more. Dorsey deserves a lot of blame for some stuff and I know it’s popular to blame him for not designing plays specifically to those positions, but TEs and RBs were open. That’s on Josh to find them if his receivers are blanketed. I think Josh’s numbers against zone coverage last year were his worst since 2019. Part of that is pressure from up front, so the OL needs to do a better job sustaining blocks and allowing him to get into his reads. It’s never one player, one position, or one coach; it’s the totality of it all. I agree. I think it's a very bad combination at the moment. Favre style mentality combined with an OC that doesn't do a great job scripting and creating the underneath. This is another interesting look. IAY/PA is air yards per pass attempt. So basically, how deep is Josh trying to throw on average. The true demise at the end of last year appears to be the combination of less blitzing and deeper throws. You can see it pretty clearly in the heat map. 2 minutes ago, Beck Water said: So what happens when you blitz a guy? That's one less player to cover and if the QB gets out of the pocket, one less player to contain and pursue. To the OP - what did the Bengals game look like? 14.8%, they did the same and I agree 100%. Blitzing sort of forces the issue. I almost think forcing the issue is probably good for Josh. It limits how much he thinks. Helps his timing. Creates running seams. If you can keep Josh in the pocket and play coverage, then make him think. I think that's what teams game planned against us last year. Edited May 12, 2023 by Mikie2times 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan89 Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 I hope that with Kincaid added in the mix and the hopefully better guard/o-line play leads to a more diverse offense. Better running and playaction and two TE sets. 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJGauna Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 No need to blitz when the o-line was pretty bad at times last year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jahnyc Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 Maybe defenses didn't feel the need to blitz since they were generating enough pressure against our o-line without blitzing? 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikie2times Posted May 12, 2023 Author Share Posted May 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, JJGauna said: No need to blitz when the o-line was pretty bad at times last year. That is nowhere close to being the reason when looking at it relative to his career. 4 minutes ago, jahnyc said: Maybe defenses didn't feel the need to blitz since they were generating enough pressure against our o-line without blitzing? He had the lowest rate of pressure of his career last year by a large margin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malazan Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 (edited) 7 minutes ago, jahnyc said: Maybe defenses didn't feel the need to blitz since they were generating enough pressure against our o-line without blitzing? Allen is able to make guys miss and buy a second when he needs it so taking a guy out of coverage was an advantage to Allen in a big way. It also looked like teams figured out that even if their rush wasn't able to get to Allen quickly, that the Bills offense was more than happy to take that time to try for a big play downfield which then got them into a catch 22. I don't know how much was Dorsey, Allen, zero threat to run the ball or the offensive line being bad, but they need to be able to make teams pay with the run and/or short passing game (and man did they seem super awkward on screens). The Bills offense was 1 dimensional and that is always easy to defend regardless of what that dimension is (it's a testament to Allen that he was still as good as he was and they scored as much as they did). Edited May 12, 2023 by Malazan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LABILLBACKER Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 27 minutes ago, Beck Water said: So what happens when you blitz a guy? That's one less player to cover and if the QB gets out of the pocket, one less player to contain and pursue. To the OP - what did the Bengals game look like? Also when your OL blows more each year it's less necessary to blitz. You can still get to Josh in 1.8 sec with 4. This is a byproduct of poor OL play and a rookie OC who struggles to emphasize dump offs to Josh. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCofNC Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 (edited) Multiple factors at play here. 1) Josh is one of , if not the best QB when blitzed and you don’t want him out of the pocket, he creates chaos. 2) Many of the teams we played have a good interior of their DL and the middle of our line is/was horribly soft, do dumping people in his lap wasn’t a problem. 3) The WRs sucked and ran long routes, he HAD to wait and teams knew they could get to him with that extra time. 4) Like Maholmes, you won’t stop him, but you can slow him, more men in coverage is a better odds of doing so. If the line play picks up, teams will be forced to blitz him to get pressure and he will have time to pick that up and make a team pay for it, if the line is a hot mess again… well.. see reason 2. Edited May 12, 2023 by DCofNC 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 50 minutes ago, Mikie2times said: I have been looking at a lot of splits involving Josh the last month and this is one that really stood out to me. Josh was Blitzed relentlessly in 2019, 2020, and 2021. If you look at times Josh was blitzed on 45% or more of his passes, none of them came in 2022. It happened 16 total times prior. Teams did have some success in this style when the %'s really ratcheted up. I can only presume when the blitz % got 50% or higher it was also probably working. These were those games Then something changed last year. Josh has been blitzed 20% or less 14 times since 2019, half of those times came in 2022, but to me, it's much more telling how our division rivals played us. (Blitz % is on the far right) Jets Patriots Dolphins This is a massive change. Pre 2022, we played 18 divisional regular season games, 0 of them resulted in a Blitz % below 20%. In 2022, ALL OF THEM DID In trying to understand when this trend really started, it appears like the Miami game or Jets game. But if you look before that point. Tennessee always played us like this and Pittsburgh certainly decided to do so as that game plan was so out of character for them. So when we think what changed so much in the back half of 2022. Certainly his injury plays into it. I also wonder, did teams just start playing us more in the mold of bend but don't break? If that is the case, did we ever find out an answer in how we beat that approach? 43 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said: Josh needs to look for his RBs and TEs more. Dorsey deserves a lot of blame for some stuff and I know it’s popular to blame him for not designing plays specifically to those positions, but TEs and RBs were open. That’s on Josh to find them if his receivers are blanketed. I think Josh’s numbers against zone coverage last year were his worst since 2019. Part of that is pressure from up front, so the OL needs to do a better job sustaining blocks and allowing him to get into his reads. It’s never one player, one position, or one coach; it’s the totality of it all. a lot of the moves this offseason makes it seem like they are self aware and at least from a personnel standpoint added pieces to help the short game 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charles Romes Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 Jets D has gotten really good and they don’t need to blitz. That’s 1/3 of the opponents. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethan in Cleveland Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 1. Oline was bad so you can get home with rushing 4 or less 2. Josh has proven he is a blitz killer so it makes sense to drop 7 in coverage. 3. Every good defense we have seen for more than a decade now is predicated on getting pressure with the front four. McD is no different. The truly great defenses can rush four from odd formations to confuse and create matchup issues Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 The book on the Bills is out. No question. It is on Dorsey and to an extent Josh to find an answer. Just now, Ethan in Cleveland said: 1. Oline was bad so you can get home with rushing 4 or less 2. Josh has proven he is a blitz killer so it makes sense to drop 7 in coverage. 3. Every good defense we have seen for more than a decade now is predicated on getting pressure with the front four. McD is no different. The truly great defenses can rush four from odd formations to confuse and create matchup issues Yep all of these are true but it has ALWAYS been the case since he came into the league that Josh burns you if you play a lot of man on the back end. Early in his career you could make up for that by getting there before he had a chance to recognise it. Now he recognises it quicker he burns the blitz. Where he has been less good is vs flood zones. And that is some on him, some on playcalling and some on talent around him. 1 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikie2times Posted May 12, 2023 Author Share Posted May 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: The book on the Bills is out. No question. It is on Dorsey and to an extent Josh to find an answer. Yep all of these are true but it has ALWAYS been the case since he came into the league that Josh burns you if you play a lot of man on the back end. Early in his career you could make up for that by getting there before he had a chance to recognise it. Now he recognises it quicker he burns the blitz. Where he has been less good is vs flood zones. And that is some on him, some on playcalling and some on talent around him. Thank you Gunner. As far as all these "bad offensive line" posts or getting home with just the DL, the line has always been bad. Yes, that contributes, but nothing was new in that in 2022. Bad line, no running game, same as 2019, 2020, 2021. Virtually no blitzing that is teams playing us different. I look at it as zone concepts as you said. Containing Josh in the pocket. A lack of development in our short and intermediate passing game. A lack of weapons in our short and intermediate passing game. No running game. Buffalo destroying every record they ever had in Air Yards per attempt. Hell, it could be an NFL record. I don't think teams really cared if Josh had time if everything above was in play. As one poster mentioned, I do believe we have looked at this specific issue and a lot of our signings have been related to it. As Beane says, you look at your last loss of the season. Cincy didn't blitz us either and those conditions, when your entire offense is built on the deep ball. It doesn't work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubes Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 I don't have anything to add to the discussion other than this is a pretty interesting and cool thread. Thanks OP! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrivefourfive Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 1 hour ago, Mikie2times said: I agree. I think it's a very bad combination at the moment. Favre style mentality combined with an OC that doesn't do a great job scripting and creating the underneath. This is another interesting look. IAY/PA is air yards per pass attempt. So basically, how deep is Josh trying to throw on average. The true demise at the end of last year appears to be the combination of less blitzing and deeper throws. You can see it pretty clearly in the heat map. 14.8%, they did the same and I agree 100%. Blitzing sort of forces the issue. I almost think forcing the issue is probably good for Josh. It limits how much he thinks. Helps his timing. Creates running seams. If you can keep Josh in the pocket and play coverage, then make him think. I think that's what teams game planned against us last year. This, exactly. He’s throwing deep into the “bend”. That’s the complete opposite approach to have. Granted, JA threw some deep balls that should’ve been caught,,, but we’re dropped… by everyone not named Diggs. The glaring result of this misguided response to the ‘bend’ defense were the picks in opponents’ territory. The Bend is strongest on that end… that’s when they don’t break. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt_In_NH Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 1 hour ago, JayBaller10 said: Josh needs to look for his RBs and TEs more. Dorsey deserves a lot of blame for some stuff and I know it’s popular to blame him for not designing plays specifically to those positions, but TEs and RBs were open. That’s on Josh to find them if his receivers are blanketed. I think Josh’s numbers against zone coverage last year were his worst since 2019. Part of that is pressure from up front, so the OL needs to do a better job sustaining blocks and allowing him to get into his reads. It’s never one player, one position, or one coach; it’s the totality of it all. I really think this comes down to measure/countermeasure. I think a lot of this falls on Josh (and some Dorsey), most plays have options even if the primary target is supposed to be Davis 18 yards down field. I think Josh recognizing what the defense is trying to do and then knowing instinctively what to do to counter it is what is missing. Josh does well when you blitz him because he can escape the rush and someone will be open. I think more shorter/rhythm passes are needed at times. This league is full of data analytics, every team is looking for what works against this QB or that QB, you have to schematically flexible. Sometimes the dump offs are the right decision. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K-9 Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 (edited) 32 minutes ago, Charles Romes said: Jets D has gotten really good and they don’t need to blitz. That’s 1/3 of the opponents. This is irrefutable as they are one of the least blitzing teams in the league and that is directly related to their front four and quick LBs who can close and cover quickly. Edited May 12, 2023 by K-9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrimeTime101 Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 For me this is not even a real topic. 2 years ago we had a bad offensive line but good targets. Last year we had a bad offensive line and no targets. What ya think they would do? Now we have an "average" (and I am ok with saying around 15th best OL} With actual target that you can get rid of the ball quick. This topic for me is a no brainer. We needed to get better on the Line and Targets. We did it. Moving on. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaw66 Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 Teams also aren't blizing because of the lack of a running game. Allowing their safeties to stay out of the box facilitates playing zone pass defense. A safety in the box forces more man to man, which is easier to attack. Just now, PrimeTime101 said: For me this is not even a real topic. 2 years ago we had a bad offensive line but good targets. Last year we had a bad offensive line and no targets. What ya think they would do? Now we have an "average" (and I am ok with saying around 15th best OL} With actual target that you can get rid of the ball quick. This topic for me is a no brainer. We needed to get better on the Line and Targets. We did it. Moving on. Well, whether the Bills actually did it remains to be seen, but I agree that they've attempted to adjust. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick Duffy Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 Well I'd guess if Bills offense struggled against the blitz a bit more last season than prior couple seasons, then I'd say one issue which possibly was the biggest issue that played a factor was the absence of Bease. Obviously multiple issues played a part, New OC, OL, etc....but that confidence and trust with Bease that he could rely on not there anymore when the ball needs to come out fast in those situations was a big part Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrimeTime101 Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said: Teams also aren't blizing because of the lack of a running game. Allowing their safeties to stay out of the box facilitates playing zone pass defense. A safety in the box forces more man to man, which is easier to attack. Well, whether the Bills actually did it remains to be seen, but I agree that they've attempted to adjust. First Bolded I agree. That too... To the second bolded? For me? We got way better on offense. I am confident. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyBills Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 Just shocked at the Mia #s Watching on TV, looked like they were blitzing all day 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robert Paulson Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 1 hour ago, Mikie2times said: I agree. I think it's a very bad combination at the moment. Favre style mentality combined with an OC that doesn't do a great job scripting and creating the underneath. This is another interesting look. IAY/PA is air yards per pass attempt. So basically, how deep is Josh trying to throw on average. The true demise at the end of last year appears to be the combination of less blitzing and deeper throws. You can see it pretty clearly in the heat map. 14.8%, they did the same and I agree 100%. Blitzing sort of forces the issue. I almost think forcing the issue is probably good for Josh. It limits how much he thinks. Helps his timing. Creates running seams. If you can keep Josh in the pocket and play coverage, then make him think. I think that's what teams game planned against us last year. josh always looks for the homerun so when he has time he thinks he can wait for the long ball to open until it is too late. i still feel his elbow injury caused him to lose his touch/gave him pain on those short RB/TE passes but he was still able to chuck it. the first few weeks of the season he was taking those short throws then he didn't after the injury. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaw66 Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 8 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said: First Bolded I agree. That too... To the second bolded? For me? We got way better on offense. I am confident. I agree the team has better pieces. I think the question is whether Dorsey is the man to put the puzzle together. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K-9 Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 6 minutes ago, Robert Paulson said: josh always looks for the homerun so when he has time he thinks he can wait for the long ball to open until it is too late. i still feel his elbow injury caused him to lose his touch/gave him pain on those short RB/TE passes but he was still able to chuck it. the first few weeks of the season he was taking those short throws then he didn't after the injury. There were reports that the elbow injury impacted his ability on swing passes and screens so that makes sense. He certainly didn’t have trouble rippin’ it on straight rope, though. That pass to Diggs to set up the win against Detroit was a rocket. As was the game ending play against the Jets just two plays after sustaining the injury. Nearly 70 yards to Davis on a rope down the left sideline that beat Sauce Gardner. Davis could have caught that ball. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 45 minutes ago, Mikie2times said: Thank you Gunner. As far as all these "bad offensive line" posts or getting home with just the DL, the line has always been bad. Yes, that contributes, but nothing was new in that in 2022. Bad line, no running game, same as 2019, 2020, 2021. Virtually no blitzing that is teams playing us different. I look at it as zone concepts as you said. Containing Josh in the pocket. A lack of development in our short and intermediate passing game. A lack of weapons in our short and intermediate passing game. No running game. Buffalo destroying every record they ever had in Air Yards per attempt. Hell, it could be an NFL record. I don't think teams really cared if Josh had time if everything above was in play. As one poster mentioned, I do believe we have looked at this specific issue and a lot of our signings have been related to it. As Beane says, you look at your last loss of the season. Cincy didn't blitz us either and those conditions, when your entire offense is built on the deep ball. It doesn't work. The line was 'decent' in 2020 except the two games against the Chiefs where Spags outcoached Dabes. But that is the only time Josh has had anything approaching good protection. A bad line isn't enough explanation of the change in how defenses play us. The only semi counter to your point is that actually the entire league is moving that way. Blitz less, be multiple in your coverage looks, rush 4 and confuse the QB long enough that the 4 get home. Some of it is teams working out that is the plan v Allen some of it is likely jusr teams doing that more as part of their base defense. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrimeTime101 Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 10 minutes ago, Shaw66 said: I agree the team has better pieces. I think the question is whether Dorsey is the man to put the puzzle together. Dorsey watched how a really good TE was used at Carolina. I do not think Dorsey will be an issue as much as people think. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Royale with Cheese Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 I feel the blitz is only effective against mediocre and below QB's. Almost all great QB's are good against the blitz. They usually recognize early and know how to counter it quickly. Mental processing speed is faster than any LB/Edge/Corner legs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beck Water Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 29 minutes ago, Robert Paulson said: josh always looks for the homerun so when he has time he thinks he can wait for the long ball to open until it is too late. i still feel his elbow injury caused him to lose his touch/gave him pain on those short RB/TE passes but he was still able to chuck it. the first few weeks of the season he was taking those short throws then he didn't after the injury. I think that's an astute observation. Josh openly said that the elbow caused him to change his motion from his preferred 2020-on "rotational" motion to a more overhead, lateral motion That's the throwing motion he came into the league with, and struggled with accuracy on short passes with. So I think it follows that he was not as pinpoint accurate with those middle of the field and short throws, thus hesitated to take them. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick Duffy Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 1 minute ago, PrimeTime101 said: Dorsey watched how a really good TE was used at Carolina. I do not think Dorsey will be an issue as much as people think. Well, I'm not sure what you're trying to get at in regards of what you say he watched at Carolina. He could have gotten Knox more involved than he did. I hope he figures it out with Knox/Kincaid in his 2nd season.' As for the bold, that's certainly the hope..however it remains to be seen and some fans aren't as confident in Dorsey at the moment 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikie2times Posted May 12, 2023 Author Share Posted May 12, 2023 37 minutes ago, Robert Paulson said: josh always looks for the homerun so when he has time he thinks he can wait for the long ball to open until it is too late. i still feel his elbow injury caused him to lose his touch/gave him pain on those short RB/TE passes but he was still able to chuck it. the first few weeks of the season he was taking those short throws then he didn't after the injury. That would be interesting as the data certainly shows his targets getting way outside the range he has lived in historically. He was always higher in air yards per target, but he didn't stay high. For context, he averaged 10 yards or greater in air distance per throw 5 times in the 2nd half of 2022. Mahomes and Burrow have have eclipsed that mark a combined 4 times, since 2020, combined. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigAl2526 Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 This is the ongoing game of chess that is the NFL. When Josh came into the league, it was a tried and true practice to blitz young QBs as a way to force mistakes. Young QBs have to sink or swim. Josh learned to swim. Josh faced so much blitzing that I wonder if his development at dealing with other kinds of defenses could have been slowed a bit. We can be sure that Dorsey and Josh will take a close look at what defenses like the Jets were able to do against the Bills last season and work at ways to counter them. The offseason moves of the Bills on offense (upgrading the line, drafting a potentially elite TE, acquiring a couple of running backs that possess power and switching out some receivers who disappointed last season for some who may be more reliable) all point toward fixing the areas where Buffalo sometimes struggled last season. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pirate Angel Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 They may have Blitzed because they couldn't cover all the weapons. Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, Beasley, Knox. Gabe Davis seemed to be very good playing as the #3 or 4 almost like a TE finding a soft spot to run to. 2023 it was double Diggs and put your #1 CB on Gabe and spy Josh. Crowder got hurt, Mckenzie was bad, and we just couldnt generate anything over the middle. Bring in Hardy, Kincaid, and Sheffield to try and get some of that fire power back 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PBF81 Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 2 hours ago, Mikie2times said: I have been looking at a lot of splits involving Josh the last month and this is one that really stood out to me. Josh was Blitzed relentlessly in 2019, 2020, and 2021. If you look at times Josh was blitzed on 45% or more of his passes, none of them came in 2022. It happened 16 total times prior. Teams did have some success in this style when the %'s really ratcheted up. I can only presume when the blitz % got 50% or higher it was also probably working. These were those games Then something changed last year. Josh has been blitzed 20% or less 14 times since 2019, half of those times came in 2022, but to me, it's much more telling how our division rivals played us. (Blitz % is on the far right) Jets Patriots Dolphins This is a massive change. Pre 2022, we played 18 divisional regular season games, 0 of them resulted in a Blitz % below 20%. In 2022, ALL OF THEM DID In trying to understand when this trend really started, it appears like the Miami game or Jets game. But if you look before that point. Tennessee always played us like this and Pittsburgh certainly decided to do so as that game plan was so out of character for them. So when we think what changed so much in the back half of 2022. Certainly his injury plays into it. I also wonder, did teams just start playing us more in the mold of bend but don't break? If that is the case, did we ever find out an answer in how we beat that approach? All that's there is Blitz%. What's correlated to that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikie2times Posted May 12, 2023 Author Share Posted May 12, 2023 9 minutes ago, PBF81 said: All that's there is Blitz%. What's correlated to that? You would think Sacks, but the correlation is not even relevant (at least as it relates to Allen and the Bills). Probably more reason to not do it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HappyDays Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, BigAl2526 said: We can be sure that Dorsey and Josh will take a close look at what defenses like the Jets were able to do against the Bills last season and work at ways to counter them. The best possible counter to the way defenses played us last year is TE seam routes. The 2nd best counter is stop routes by a cerebral pass catcher that knows where to sit in coverage gaps, especially one with fluid catch and run ability. Hey what do you know, the Bills drafted a player in the 1st round that excels at both of these concepts. Kincaid and to some extent James Cook are the answer to the problem defenses posed us last year. It was bizarre watching us refuse to get Knox and our pass catching RBs involved last year when defenses were practically begging us to throw them the ball. As long as Dorsey understands this, and the Kincaid pick makes me optimistic that he does, I expect a more consistent / much less boom or bust offense this year. Edited May 12, 2023 by HappyDays Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Otreply Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 3 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said: For me this is not even a real topic. 2 years ago we had a bad offensive line but good targets. Last year we had a bad offensive line and no targets. What ya think they would do? Now we have an "average" (and I am ok with saying around 15th best OL} With actual target that you can get rid of the ball quick. This topic for me is a no brainer. We needed to get better on the Line and Targets. We did it. Moving on. It’s the old adage, the game is won and lost at the line of scrimmage, it’s the core of every offense, I very much hope that this seasons O-line steps up, it’s crucial for overall success, especially in the postseason. 🤞 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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