Don't like drafting for need just for need sake.

[gjv]

I don't agree with this draft philosophy;https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2023/02/the-height-of-stupidity-are-the-bills-crazy-to-consider-drafting-a-running-back-in-round-one.htmlUpgrading the O-line for next season has to be a priority, no questions asked. That being said, will an O-lineman be available at 27 that can come in and start? If the draft prospect evaluators are correct, this is a weak draft for a "draft and start O-lineman". There appears to be a decent size group of quality O-line prospects in the late round 2 and round three gradings. Therefore, barring a Bong user falling into our lap, it doesn't appear likely the Bills will be able to upgrade their starting O-line via the draft. It appears more likely they can find some O-line depth in the draft with future starting potential. Unfortunately, the cap-strapped Bills will have to look to free agency to upgrade the starting o-line. With all that, I would much prefer the Bills select a player with true or close to true first-round qualities no matter the position. And should Bijan Robinson be in decent price range, I would be thrilled to have the Bills jump in front of Dallas and grab him. A backfield with Allen and Robinson might be deemed illegal by the NFL.

[JaCrispy]

No more trading up…and certainly no trading up for a RB…

[BarleyNY]

FA is for need, the draft is for long term team building. Teams that draft for need do so at their own peril. 

[Billz4ever]

12 minutes ago, gjv said:

I don't agree with this draft philosophy;https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2023/02/the-height-of-stupidity-are-the-bills-crazy-to-consider-drafting-a-running-back-in-round-one.htmlUpgrading the O-line for next season has to be a priority, no questions asked. That being said, will an O-lineman be available at 27 that can come in and start? If the draft prospect evaluators are correct, this is a weak draft for a "draft and start O-lineman". There appears to be a decent size group of quality O-line prospects in the late round 2 and round three gradings. Therefore, barring a Bong user falling into our lap, it doesn't appear likely the Bills will be able to upgrade their starting O-line via the draft. It appears more likely they can find some O-line depth in the draft with future starting potential. Unfortunately, the cap-strapped Bills will have to look to free agency to upgrade the starting o-line. With all that, I would much prefer the Bills select a player with true or close to true first-round qualities no matter the position. And should Bijan Robinson be in decent price range, I would be thrilled to have the Bills jump in front of Dallas and grab him. A backfield with Allen and Robinson might be deemed illegal by the NFL.

 

You can't band-aid the O-line any longer.  They gave Saffold $6M to come here and he was the worst guy on the line.  

 

This line lacks consistency and continuity and I disagree that there's no lineman than could start as rookies in this year's draft.  I would've easily taken a talented rookie over what we got out of Saffold who was getting paid significantly more than what a rookie would have. 

 

We should only draft Robinson if he falls to us.  Trading up, which will cost us picks and/or position in later rounds, makes no sense especially when we only have six picks as it is this year with several holes to fill.  We need good players on rookie contracts.  

Edited February 24, 2023 by Billz4ever

[MWK]

It doesn’t matter what running back we have if we don’t have a line that can block for him.

[PrimeTime101]

1 minute ago, gjv said:

I don't agree with this draft philosophy;https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2023/02/the-height-of-stupidity-are-the-bills-crazy-to-consider-drafting-a-running-back-in-round-one.htmlUpgrading the O-line for next season has to be a priority, no questions asked. That being said, will an O-lineman be available at 27 that can come in and start? If the draft prospect evaluators are correct, this is a weak draft for a "draft and start O-lineman". There appears to be a decent size group of quality O-line prospects in the late round 2 and round three gradings. Therefore, barring a Bong user falling into our lap, it doesn't appear likely the Bills will be able to upgrade their starting O-line via the draft. It appears more likely they can find some O-line depth in the draft with future starting potential. Unfortunately, the cap-strapped Bills will have to look to free agency to upgrade the starting o-line. With all that, I would much prefer the Bills select a player with true or close to true first-round qualities no matter the position. And should Bijan Robinson be in decent price range, I would be thrilled to have the Bills jump in front of Dallas and grab him. A backfield with Allen and Robinson might be deemed illegal by the NFL.

sigh. this conversation comes up every year around this time.

 

1. You have a set of positions of need and a rank for how high the need is

2. Your draft nominees have your own GM ranking system that is ranked by talent.

3. When the draft pick comes they look at their needs and look at what is left in the draft talent wise for the position.

 

So. GM has a set of ranks for potential draft picks and a set of ranks where they need players. Then they choose by what is the best talented player for their top few needs. 

 

Another words..  IF the GM's needs in this order are WR, OL, HB (just as an example) and the most talented by far player left is a HB, then they will choose HB. If HB is BPA (Best Player Available) to their needs, but OL is a very close second and OL is a much higher scaled need? Then they will do a slight "reach" to get their need because the talented player levels are close enough to do so.

 

None of has have a CLUE what our GM and HC draft philosophies are other than... we have a defensive minded HC.

 

Another words.. BPA is a real thing, yet it is not as simple as that. 

[In Summary]

You can pick need if the value is there.

[PrimeTime101]

2 minutes ago, MWK said:

It doesn’t matter what running back we have if we don’t have a line that can block for him.

I would argue that a dude named Derrik Henry way more often than not, gets the first player to miss thus making an OL look much better than it really is. 

2 minutes ago, In Summary said:

You can pick need if the value is there.

BPA at Value sums it up perfectly. well said. 

[Billz4ever]

3 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

I would argue that a dude named Derrik Henry way more often than not, gets the first player to miss thus making an OL look much better than it really is. 

 

Josh Allen is who makes our OL look better than it really is.

 

If Josh were simply a regular pocket passer with so-so mobility, this team probably sets a new record for sacks taken this past season.

Edited February 24, 2023 by Billz4ever

[PrimeTime101]

Just now, Billz4ever said:

 

Josh Allen is who makes our OL look better than it really is.

 

If Josh were simply a regular pocket passer with so-so mobility, this team probably sets a new record for sacks taken in a season.

right now? of course!!! but you add a dude line Henrry to this line up (not to say it would even remotely happen)  Both players are going to make an OL way better then how they really are.

 

This cant really be argued can it?

[Billz4ever]

4 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

right now? of course!!! but you add a dude line Henrry to this line up (not to say it would even remotely happen)  Both players are going to make an OL way better then how they really are.

 

This cant really be argued can it?

 

There is only one Derrick Henry and he's not on our roster and he's not getting the team he's on to the SB or even the playoffs for that matter.

 

What's the last SB team to have a superstar RB?

 

 

Edited February 24, 2023 by Billz4ever

[The Jokeman]

5 minutes ago, Billz4ever said:

 

There is only one Derrick Henry and he's not on our roster and he's not getting the team he's on to the SB or even the playoffs for that matter.

 

What's the last SB team to have a superstar RB?

 

 

The Seahawks when they had Marshawn Lynch which about 10 years ago. 

[Billz4ever]

6 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

The Seahawks when they had Marshawn Lynch which about 10 years ago. 

Yep.  The recipe for winning in today's league is pretty clear and has been demonstrated for years now. It doesn't require a monster RB to do it.

 

And in that game, Lynch had 15 carries for 39 yards.  A 2.6 avg/carry.

Edited February 24, 2023 by Billz4ever

[Solomon Grundy]

2 minutes ago, Billz4ever said:

Yep.  The recipe for winning in today's league is pretty clear and has been demonstrated for years now. It doesn't require a monster RB to do it.

Mr. Baum from my European Cultures class in high school told me that "history repeats itself"

[Billz4ever]

3 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Mr. Baum from my European Cultures class in high school told me that "history repeats itself"

 

If you're referring to the days in the NFL where the SB teams had great RBs, I would suggest if the league was going to return to those days anytime soon, it will be by a team other than the Bills. The Bills are a pass first offense as it stands, and right now, don't have an OL good enough that would allow a great back to prosper.

[Solomon Grundy]

2 minutes ago, Billz4ever said:

 

If you're referring to the days in the NFL where the SB teams had great RBs, I would suggest if the league was going to return to those days anytime soon, it will be by a team other than the Bills. The Bills are a pass first offense as it stands, and right now, don't have an OL good enough that would allow a great back to prosper.

I believe that the offensive line can be fixed in this draft in rds 2-4. Lest we forget that the Bills once fielded a high powered offense with Kelly and Thurman sharing the backfield. How about "Air Coryell" with Fouts and Chuck Muncie. I love how folks say that by drafting Bijan you take the ball out of Josh's hands. Can't having Bijan give the Bills more possessions creating more attempts for the offense? Less 3 and outs? If Bijan falls to the Bills at 27, to me it's a no brainer. Draft RT, C in that order to fix line. Sign OBJ and be in the SB talk again next season

[Billz4ever]

Just now, Solomon Grundy said:

I believe that the offensive line can be fixed in this draft in rds 2-4. Lest we forget that the Bills once fielded a high powered offense with Kelly and Thurman sharing the backfield. How about "Air Coryell" with Fouts and Chuck Muncie. I love how folks say that by drafting Bijan you take the ball out of Josh's hands. Can't having Bijan give the Bills more possessions creating more attempts for the offense? Less 3 and outs? If Bijan falls to the Bills at 27, to me it's a no brainer. Draft RT, C in that order to fix line. Sign OBJ and be in the SB talk again next season

I believe the line can be fixed through the draft this year too and maybe a key FA signing.  If Robinson is there at 27, I'm taking him.  He's also a great pass catcher and Dorsey MUST get our backs involved in the passing game no matter who is back there.

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, JaCrispy said:

No more trading up…and certainly no trading up for a RB…

Exactly....you don't construct a building by starting with the roof.  The order of draft urgency since 2019 should've been:

1. OL

2. WR

3. TE

4. RB

30 minutes ago, Billz4ever said:

 

If you're referring to the days in the NFL where the SB teams had great RBs, I would suggest if the league was going to return to those days anytime soon, it will be by a team other than the Bills. The Bills are a pass first offense as it stands, and right now, don't have an OL good enough that would allow a great back to prosper.

On top of that they don't have good enough olineman to give Josh 1.8 seconds. Beane can't possibly be this stupid,  can he?

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Only reason i'm opposed to a running back is that cook looked pretty good last year in the time he got, and they can find carries in free agency pretty cheap.  Everyone talks about breece hall as this future star, and cook has the exact same numbers.  

[Doc]

You draft the BPA at positions of need.  

[PrimeTime101]

3 hours ago, Doc said:

You draft the BPA at positions of need.  

yep I been saying it for a long time and people don't get it.  What BPA really means is Valued need.

[Jay_Fixit]

3 hours ago, Doc said:

You draft the BPA at positions of need.  

Only if the BPA happens to be at a position of need. Otherwise drafting need over BPA is a terrible strategy.

[PrimeTime101]

2 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

Only if the BPA happens to be at a position of need. Otherwise drafting need over BPA is a terrible strategy.

I am pretty sure that is what doc just said lol

[Success]

I always think it can - and probably is - a bit of a mix.  If you're drafting BPA, you probably have a few guys that you would take at any given position in the draft - and if you're on the fence, of course need will end up being the deciding factor.

 

Or, if you think you really need a player and it's too much of a reach, you can try to trade down.

 

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

6 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

FA is for need, the draft is for long term team building. Teams that draft for need do so at their own peril. 

My god you are so wrong...

[Don Otreply]

Draft evaluation by the scouts  is as suspect as as any other part of the draft process, it’s where the errors start, or is it the GMs ignoring good advice, we never know as we are on the outside looking in,  the draft is a crap shoot on a good day, 

 

Don’t fool yourself, all draft choices are need driven, it’s always been that way, and it’s never going to change. 

 

GO BILLS!!!

Edited February 24, 2023 by Don Otreply

[H2o]

1 hour ago, Jay_Fixit said:

Only if the BPA happens to be at a position of need. Otherwise drafting need over BPA is a terrible strategy.

There has to be a balance. You don't reach for a late 2nd Round prospect in the 1st. But if your board has a RB a couple of spots higher than a G prospect also available, when you have a clear need at G, and you take the RB? That's just blatant stupidity. You take the BPA at the position of need, if it is within reason. 

[Nitro]

If you have a glaring need and it was not addressed in free agency then you will draft accordingly.  Now if the talent does not meet your drafting position you either trade down, garnering additional picks) or taking a talent that bolsters another position.  You draft for now and the future.  

[bobobonators]

Trading up for a rb would be criminal. 

[hondo in seattle]

There's always a blend between BPA and need.

 

For example, even if Beane is a BPA guy, if there's a great QB on the board when we pick, why bother?  It would be a waste of a pick.

 

On the other hand, a team needs playmakers.  The best way to get playmakers is to not reach for need and instead go BPA.  And then fill the rest of your roster with FAs - even if all you can afford are JAGs.  

 

I remember hearing a GM talk once  - Ron Wolf maybe.  He said the goal is to draft All-Pros - one or two each draft.  It didn't matter, he said, if your 1st round draft pick was a bust if you found a couple All-Pros in the 3rd and 4th rounds.  Every team has JAGs.  Championship teams have enough elite players to set them apart.  He also said you don't draft to plug roster holes.  You draft for All-Pros.  That's it.  

 

Edited February 25, 2023 by hondo in seattle

[Jay_Fixit]

7 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

I am pretty sure that is what doc just said lol

Not even close.

 

Always BPA. Never because you need a position. If BPA is a player that just happens to be a position you need, then it works.

 

I don’t mince words. Read carefully next time.

Edited February 25, 2023 by Jay_Fixit

[Straight Hucklebuck]

15 hours ago, Billz4ever said:

 

Josh Allen is who makes our OL look better than it really is.

 

If Josh were simply a regular pocket passer with so-so mobility, this team probably sets a new record for sacks taken this past season.

And according to WGR young guns, it’s why they make the case that you can “get away” with an average offensive line. 
 

Allen gets them out of trouble.

 

But they’re also the people that constantly shove DVOA down everyone’s throats and scream about efficient passing offense.

[John from Riverside]

16 hours ago, gjv said:

I don't agree with this draft philosophy;https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2023/02/the-height-of-stupidity-are-the-bills-crazy-to-consider-drafting-a-running-back-in-round-one.htmlUpgrading the O-line for next season has to be a priority, no questions asked. That being said, will an O-lineman be available at 27 that can come in and start? If the draft prospect evaluators are correct, this is a weak draft for a "draft and start O-lineman". There appears to be a decent size group of quality O-line prospects in the late round 2 and round three gradings. Therefore, barring a Bong user falling into our lap, it doesn't appear likely the Bills will be able to upgrade their starting O-line via the draft. It appears more likely they can find some O-line depth in the draft with future starting potential. Unfortunately, the cap-strapped Bills will have to look to free agency to upgrade the starting o-line. With all that, I would much prefer the Bills select a player with true or close to true first-round qualities no matter the position. And should Bijan Robinson be in decent price range, I would be thrilled to have the Bills jump in front of Dallas and grab him. A backfield with Allen and Robinson might be deemed illegal by the NFL.

I don’t either
 

But I think we are fortunate that this is a draft that our needs match the best players when we draft

[Doc Brown]

15 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

No more trading up…and certainly no trading up for a RB…

You've got to be willing to trade up and down.  Philly traded up two spots to land Devontae Smith because they knew he was the last of the three WR's in the top tier.  They pry don't regret it.  Meanwhile, we traded down twice to select Cook acquiring two extra sixth round picks.  One happened to be used on Christian Benford.

[Doc Brown]

9 hours ago, bobobonators said:

Trading up for a rb would be criminal. 

Vikings traded up for Dalvin Cook.  Saints traded up for Alvin Kamara.  Jets traded up for Bryce Hall.  Do it in the 2nd round I guess.

[LyndonvilleBill]

1 hour ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

And according to WGR young guns, it’s why they make the case that you can “get away” with an average offensive line. 
 

Allen gets them out of trouble.

 

But they’re also the people that constantly shove DVOA down everyone’s throats and scream about efficient passing offense.

The thing is, it has to be an average line ranked with an average QB. Then when you have a QB like Allen, you can get away with it. Having an average OL with Allen as QB, tells me it's NOT good at all. For example,  Ours.😉

[JaCrispy]

5 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

You've got to be willing to trade up and down.  Philly traded up two spots to land Devontae Smith because they knew he was the last of the three WR's in the top tier.  They pry don't regret it.  Meanwhile, we traded down twice to select Cook acquiring two extra sixth round picks.  One happened to be used on Christian Benford.

I’m all for trading back and acquiring more picks…I just don’t trust Beane to throw away draft picks, by trading up, and make the right decision…Plus we need to start accumulating players on rookie deals to fill out the roster…👍

Edited February 25, 2023 by JaCrispy

[JohnNord]

22 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

FA is for need, the draft is for long term team building. Teams that draft for need do so at their own peril. 

Every team drafts for need…

12 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

There's always a blend between BPA and need.

 

For example, even if Beane is a BPA guy, if there's a great QB on the board when we pick, why bother?  It would be a waste of a pick.

 

On the other hand, a team needs playmakers.  The best way to get playmakers is to not reach for need and instead go BPA.  And then fill the rest of your roster with FAs - even if all you can afford are JAGs.  

 

I remember hearing a GM talk once  - Ron Wolf maybe.  He said the goal is to draft All-Pros - one or two each draft.  It didn't matter, he said, if your 1st round draft pick was a bust if you found a couple All-Pros in the 3rd and 4th rounds.  Every team has JAGs.  Championship teams have enough elite players to set them apart.  He also said you don't draft to plug roster holes.  You draft for All-Pros.  That's it.  

 

It’s always BPA based on need.  Anyone who tells you it’s strictly BPA has been hoodwinked by GM speak.  
 

If you have an All-Pro Center, you aren’t going to take another Center even if he is BPA. 

[NewEra]

21 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

I believe that the offensive line can be fixed in this draft in rds 2-4. Lest we forget that the Bills once fielded a high powered offense with Kelly and Thurman sharing the backfield. How about "Air Coryell" with Fouts and Chuck Muncie. I love how folks say that by drafting Bijan you take the ball out of Josh's hands. Can't having Bijan give the Bills more possessions creating more attempts for the offense? Less 3 and outs? If Bijan falls to the Bills at 27, to me it's a no brainer. Draft RT, C in that order to fix line. Sign OBJ and be in the SB talk again next season

It can as long as we don’t draft cody ford in rd 2, Spencer brown rd 3 and Tommy Doyle rd 3.  Beane has done nothing in the draft to suggest he can fix the line in rd 2-4.

[Billl]

23 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

FA is for need, the draft is for long term team building. Teams that draft for need do so at their own peril. 

When the best player on the board is also at a team’s biggest need, they should trade up for that player.  Best player available is critical, but players are only cheap for 4 seasons.  In today’s NFL, you can’t afford to sit players and waste their cost controlled years backing up established starters.  

 

It doesn’t have to be a decision of BPA versus need.  It should be both, and GMs need to be savvy enough to move up and down the draft board to find that fit.  It’s what I think Kansas City did in moving up for McDuffie when they needed a CB and Trent was easily the highest player at any position left on their draft board.  I don’t think that Elam was the highest player on Buffalo’s board, but he was the highest CB so they went and got him.