We need some luck

[cwater10]

17 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

So was Dan Marino. 

 

You mentioned Jordan’s Bulls. At this point, Mahomes is Jordan. And Allen is Malone.

Demetrius Bell's head just exploded somewhere out there

[BADOLBILZ]

21 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Completely agree.  Having the #2 ranked defense, #1 last season, then going into the playoffs as if you had the 30th-ranked defense is hardly a lack of luck, ... to your point.  

 

Not squibbing a kickoff with 13-seconds left, then not at all covering two of the most prolific players in the game today, AT ALL, is hardly a lack of luck, it more falls into the negligence, incompetence, (or idiocy, pick one's poison) category.  THAT is called creating your own [bad] luck.  

 

What is luck is making the playoffs because another team not competing for the playoffs beat another team that was competing to make the playoffs, hit a 4th-and-12 for a 49-yard TD, which then paved the way for a coach being overrated.  

 

On the drafting side, we could also mention that instead of Oliver we could have had Montez Sweat or any number of other players that have performed to premier levels.  Beane's day 1 & 2 drafting has hardly created luck for us.  

 

 

I'm probably not as down as you and others on McBeane.........likely because I knew from the outset that the ceiling on McDermott was to become something like Bill Cowher.........a culture definer but not a particularly innovating or clever mind(like Belichick or even a Doug Pederson, for example)............so there were likely going to be irritating, demoralizing playoff disappointments.

 

But in fairness longtime playoff chokers like Cowher and Andy Reid didn't get better until much later in their careers when they had both experience on their side AND the HOF type QB.  

 

McD was blessed to have Josh break out in year 3 for McBeane regime but I think he and Beane are still learning on the fly so Allen isn't getting the same benefits that Roethlisberger and Mahomes got.

 

But it is what it is......they gotta' make better decisions than the competition to expect to beat the competition.

 

And while they've drafted well........I believe they have more games started by own draft picks than any team since 2017.........they haven't drafted great so it hasn't been enough to offset their plethora of terrible pro personnel/free agency decisions.   They have been truly awful on the pro side.

 

If they get better at those things.........as they should and would be expected to considering they are so invested in their "growth mindset" approach.........then they can elevate in the same ways that similarly oft-criticized, slow starters like Cowher and Reid and Howie Roseman did in their jobs. 

[ProcessTruster]

18 hours ago, Einstein said:

2021 was our season.

 

The stars aligned.

 

Allen was on fire in the playoffs.

 

Gabe’s brick hands suddenly turned to perfectly conditioned leather mits filled with stick-em.

 

Then McFrazier happened…

No.  Heath Farwell sh-t the bed and gave KC 13 seconds instead of like 6 or 7 by not doing his job.   I could have won that game on D with only 7 seconds to give.  

[Einstein]

14 minutes ago, ProcessTruster said:

  I could have won that game on D with only 7 seconds to give.  

 

There was only 8 seconds left when the Chiefs snapped the ball at the 39 yard line. A pooch kick that brings the clock down to 7 or 8 seconds likely ended up aroudn the 35 anyway.

 

So it basically didnt matter. The defense was just really bad.

[Figster]

20 hours ago, Success said:

Most championship teams - in any sport - needed some luck along the way.  I would contend that we've gotten very little, if any.

 

Last year, the Niners dropped an easy INT in the NFCCG that would have basically sealed that game for them.   The Bengals were also kind of lucky to be there, given how KC gave the AFCCG away.  This year, the luck went against the Bengals, with some very questionable calls in the KC game, and went KC's way, with a soft call at the end of the game that prevented the Eagles from getting a chance to tie or win the game in the last 2 minutes.

 

And you can go back to just about any SB.  Once in awhile, there is a juggernaut, and luck isn't as needed. But usually, luck plays a big part - and I'd argue we haven't had much.  From our top 4 receivers all being injured in the AFCCG 2 years ago, to the coin toss last year, to all of the crazy situations this year.

 

So many things have to happen to win a SB. You need a great team - but you also need a few breaks.  

My luck would come in the form of magic, Fitzmagic to be exact. The 5th most intelligent athlete on the planet. Gailey Offense memorized.

 

Didn't want to become a backup to Josh Allen because it might jinx him. Who even does that?

 

Hell with that line of thinking Fitz!!!!

[Niagara Dude]

3 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Dolphins??  LOL.  KC handled the Bengals.

 

KC has made the AFCC game 4 years in a row, won it 3 times to go to 3 SBs, winning 2.

 

The Bills have been to 1 AFCC game (lost to KC) in 4 years and have been bounced short of it the other 3. 

 

Any suggestion that the Chiefs are just "luckier" than the Bills, or that the "Bills woulda won the SB...." (same as we heard here last year) is pure delusion.

 

KC has been very lucky that we have Frazier

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I'm probably not as down as you and others on McBeane.........likely because I knew from the outset that the ceiling on McDermott was to become something like Bill Cowher.........a culture definer but not a particularly innovating or clever mind(like Belichick or even a Doug Pederson, for example)............so there were likely going to be irritating, demoralizing playoff disappointments.

 

But in fairness longtime playoff chokers like Cowher and Andy Reid didn't get better until much later in their careers when they had both experience on their side AND the HOF type QB.  

 

McD was blessed to have Josh break out in year 3 for McBeane regime but I think he and Beane are still learning on the fly so Allen isn't getting the same benefits that Roethlisberger and Mahomes got.

 

But it is what it is......they gotta' make better decisions than the competition to expect to beat the competition.

 

And while they've drafted well........I believe they have more games started by own draft picks than any team since 2017.........they haven't drafted great so it hasn't been enough to offset their plethora of terrible pro personnel/free agency decisions.   They have been truly awful on the pro side.

 

If they get better at those things.........as they should and would be expected to considering they are so invested in their "growth mindset" approach.........then they can elevate in the same ways that similarly oft-criticized, slow starters like Cowher and Reid and Howie Roseman did in their jobs. 

 

My biggest thing about McD is talking a good game but doing nothing in the accountability department to correct why the D plays lights out during the regular season but like ***** in the postseason.  That cannot be ignored and it really doesn't have anything to do with gameday coaching experience.  

 

As to their draft picks playing, that may be true, but not one of our draft picks from Day 1 besides Allen have produced to the level of their pick while numerous players selected afterwards obviously have.  

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, Niagara Dude said:

KC has been very lucky that we have Frazier

 

Maybe, but the Chiefs have won 2 SBs with pretty mediocre D's.  

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Hmm I'm all for getting rid of McDermott but I wouldn't replace him with Oliver Luck or Andrew Luck. 

Which other Luck HC were you thinking of?

[Niagara Dude]

2 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Maybe, but the Chiefs have won 2 SBs with pretty mediocre D's.  

Review the tape, yes they give up TD'S and yards but they also come up with big plays and stops when they need them.  

[Mr. WEO]

4 minutes ago, Niagara Dude said:

Review the tape, yes they give up TD'S and yards but they also come up with big plays and stops when they need them.  

 

That's how it's supposed to work....champions have even mediocre units step up in the playoffs

[Nextmanup]

6 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

We've had our share of breaks too.  Making the playoffs in McD's first season was among them.  We got in having absolutely nothing to do with our play and on the unlikeliest play of the season.  

 

We got some breaks in the "13-Seconds" game too.  But when your own coaching overcomes those breaks to lose you games ... 

 

As they say, sometimes you make your own luck too.  Good or bad.  We seem to be masters at creating our own ***** luck.  

 

They didn't look particularly prepared in that Miami playoff game either. 

Great post.

 

I have been a hardcore Red Sox fan since about 1980.  For years, it was nothing but failure, and the fanbase was convinced the team was cursed.  Like the baseball gods were out to get us because things never worked out right for US.  

 

Then, after decades of incompetence, racist roster choices, completely neglecting the concept of base running, and way over-emphasizing HR hitters, the team got lucky when they hired Theo Epstein as GM.

 

A whole bunch of really smart decisions later, and we had our WC in 2004.  And then more followed.

 

Bad Bills luck will hopefully some day take a back seat to sheer competence.  

 

No doubt the administration, flawed as it is, is the best we've had since Polian.  So I guess there's still some hope!

 

 

[BringBackFergy]

Balls bounce in different ways. 

[BADOLBILZ]

5 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

My biggest thing about McD is talking a good game but doing nothing in the accountability department to correct why the D plays lights out during the regular season but like ***** in the postseason.  That cannot be ignored and it really doesn't have anything to do with gameday coaching experience.  

 

As to their draft picks playing, that may be true, but not one of our draft picks from Day 1 besides Allen have produced to the level of their pick while numerous players selected afterwards obviously have.  

 

 

Unfortunately the complaint about accountability is also consistent with guys like Cowher and Reid.

 

People get frustrated when you get upset year after year in the playoffs and don't make a lot of changes.

 

And imagine this.........Andy Reid fired Sean McDermott as his DC after the 2010 season and yet another playoff disappointment.   He seemingly held McD accountable and replaced him with Juan Castillo.   Yeah....THAT Juan Castillo. 😂   Reid then proceeded to go 12-20 the next two seasons and got fired.........while McDermott's career as a DC took off and he became a HC candidate.   

 

I said it from the start........after the 2016 season I was all about hiring an offensive minded head coach and bringing in a good 4-3 DC and drafting a QB in round one in that upcoming draft.

 

But once you go with a culture building DC/ST type Marty/Cowher guy you are in it for the long haul.    

 

McDermott signed a 6 year extension after last season..........he's going to be here another 3-4 years regardless of results, most likely..........so in the meantime I'm not expecting a lot of change in how they coach or their philosophies.........just hoping they benefit from experience and that they get a lot more efficient wrt personnel moves.

[PBF81]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Unfortunately the complaint about accountability is also consistent with guys like Cowher and Reid.

 

People get frustrated when you get upset year after year in the playoffs and don't make a lot of changes.

 

And imagine this.........Andy Reid fired Sean McDermott as his DC after the 2010 season and yet another playoff disappointment.   He seemingly held McD accountable and replaced him with Juan Castillo.   Yeah....THAT Juan Castillo. 😂   Reid then proceeded to go 12-20 the next two seasons and got fired.........while McDermott's career as a DC took off and he became a HC candidate.   

 

I said it from the start........after the 2016 season I was all about hiring an offensive minded head coach and bringing in a good 4-3 DC and drafting a QB in round one in that upcoming draft.

 

But once you go with a culture building DC/ST type Marty/Cowher guy you are in it for the long haul.    

 

McDermott signed a 6 year extension after last season..........he's going to be here another 3-4 years regardless of results, most likely..........so in the meantime I'm not expecting a lot of change in how they coach or their philosophies.........just hoping they benefit from experience and that they get a lot more efficient wrt personnel moves.

 

I hear ya, but I don't see any way to not at least have gotten rid of Frasier by now  

[Shortchaz]

On 2/17/2023 at 9:18 PM, Andy1 said:

I think luck is an important 20% of the formula. The other 80% is the decisions and actions of GM, coaches and players. It’s all needed and all important to win the last game of the season. 
 

I always remember David Tyree’s helmet catch to help the Giants win the SB. That’s luck and skill combined. 

It might feel like 20% but it’s probably closer to 1%. the margins are so thin, even between the best and worst teams, in the NFL a few “lucky” bounces can make all the difference in outcome.

 

had an interesting conversation during the superbowl about this topic. I’m surprised with all the metrics around that someone hasn’t quantified it. (Maybe they have, I’m too lazy to look) 
 

 

[finn]

Teams, especially playoff teams, are close enough that luck is a big factor. Injuries, the way the ball bounces, how the refs are inclined, the weather, flukey missed tackles and turnovers.... the list goes on. All that is normal. What's different in sports, especially ones as hyped and over-analyzed as the NFL, s that everyone thinks the outcomes of lucky moments reflects ability on the part of the lucky team--and lack of ability (or character, etc.--on the part of the unlucky team.

 

If Gabe Davis makes that catch in the Jets game that hit him in the chest in stride, the NFL world would have exploded over Josh Allen. Injured, beset behind an incompetent line, he throws a dime 60 yards in the air to pretty much win the game, one of the most clutch and impressive throws of the season. Instead, the throw is forgotten, and all of Allen's negatives from that game are highlighted. 

[machine gun kelly]

We need a better interior line, more dependable weapons than just Diggs.  We have our pass catching speed RB’s so check.  We have a number one WR and TE, check.  Davis is an ok 3rd WR, but he needs to spend the entire off season developing his route tree with Allen and Palmer.  Palmer can do more than just coach QB’s.  They need someone to throw to and Davis needs the development.

 

Now 2 Guards, and #2 WR with a. High draft pick and lastly, convert a number of salary to signing bonus and pick up Gesecki.  I know he doesn’t block, but we want weapons.

 

Make this offense undefendable and over power and crush you’re opponents.

 

Pull a line from this guy.

 

Honestly, I was just trying to weave this classic line.  Gotta love a little Conan crushing enemies lines on a Sunday morning.

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

On 2/17/2023 at 6:58 PM, Success said:

 

JA is a generational talent.

 

2021 was a huge missed opportunity.  But I refuse to believe that a QB like JA only gets one shot where everything aligns properly. It's hard to miss out on what looked like a clear path for the Bills to get a title (though that is subject to debate) - but you can look back on a lot of championship teams that had near misses leading up to their breakthrough.

 

I consider it more like Jordan's Bulls, who had to take their lumps against the Pistons for a few years before finally getting the title, and going on a run.

 

Dan Marino refused to believe that also …

[Nextmanup]

20 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

If they get better at those things.........as they should and would be expected to considering they are so invested in their "growth mindset" approach.........then they can elevate in the same ways that similarly oft-criticized, slow starters like Cowher and Reid and Howie Roseman did in their jobs. 

I guess you are talking about McDermott referencing the Japanese Kaizen approach to business---focusing on constant improvement.

 

I have to disagree here.  Just because he wants to get better and is trying to get better doesn't mean he will get better.  Though in his defense, he HAS gotten bette at certain in-game tactical sorts of things.  Others, he has remained horrible at.  We still have no smartly designed, effective, call review system in place, which is indefensible.

 

 

 

 

[Andy1]

4 hours ago, Shortchaz said:

It might feel like 20% but it’s probably closer to 1%. the margins are so thin, even between the best and worst teams, in the NFL a few “lucky” bounces can make all the difference in outcome.

 

had an interesting conversation during the superbowl about this topic. I’m surprised with all the metrics around that someone hasn’t quantified it. (Maybe they have, I’m too lazy to look) 
 

 

Sounds like you agree it is much more than 1% of the formula for playoff teams. One of these seasons, Lady Luck will shine on the Bills. With all the adversity the team dealt with, this was definitely not the year. 

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

I guess you are talking about McDermott referencing the Japanese Kaizen approach to business---focusing on constant improvement.

 

I have to disagree here.  Just because he wants to get better and is trying to get better doesn't mean he will get better.  Though in his defense, he HAS gotten bette at certain in-game tactical sorts of things.  Others, he has remained horrible at.  We still have no smartly designed, effective, call review system in place, which is indefensible.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I was skeptical of McDermott's ceiling as well but I have to admit he has improved in a lot of areas.    He has become one of the best at deciding when to go for it on 4th down or when to kick the ball.........which I thought he was Jauronian at early in his career.    He has mostly embraced being a pass first offense.   I agree that he seems pretty stubborn about his defense but from an analytics viewpoint I suspect that ranking at the top of the league the past two years reflects favorably on that obstinance.    

 

What I am MOST disappointed in McD is his inability to make broad adjustments to certain opponents the way Lou Anarumo does with Cinci.   The biggest argument for keeping an expensive back 7 intact for all these years should be that they should become great at adapting and confusing opponents.   Instead,  against the best QB'd opponents in the playoffs they've been fish in a barrel over and over.   

[nosejob]

On 2/17/2023 at 6:51 PM, Einstein said:

2021 was our season.

 

The stars aligned.

 

Allen was on fire in the playoffs.

 

Gabe’s brick hands suddenly turned to perfectly conditioned leather mits filled with stick-em.

 

Then McFrazier happened…

We had quite a daunting schedule this year opening on the road against the champs, then Tenn., to heat stroke in Miami and finished with 3 losses totaling 8 pts.

We had crazy adverse events and still got to host 2 playoff games at home. Then McFrazier happened.

Edited February 19, 2023 by nosejob

[Don Otreply]

I hear what the OP is getting at, we do need some luck, but more so than that, we need a competent O-Line and a better #2 WR, as well as some real innovation with our OC’s & DC’s play designs…,  now where’s that horse, and what did i do with my club…,

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Shortchaz]

3 hours ago, Andy1 said:

Sounds like you agree it is much more than 1% of the formula for playoff teams. One of these seasons, Lady Luck will shine on the Bills. With all the adversity the team dealt with, this was definitely not the year. 

Yeah, maybe. It’s something where a clear definition would have to be established and quantified blah blah blah. It’s certainly a factor. 

[cle23]

On 2/18/2023 at 11:08 AM, SCBills said:

KC didn’t “handle” the Bengals.  That was a good game, and a game that was very clearly highly affected by Chris Jones being a game wrecker.  
 

They don’t win that game without Chris Jones, and I’d be willing to bet a lot of Chiefs fans would admit that.  
 

Frank Clark and George Karlaftis aren’t terrorizing Joe Burrow.   Just like Ed Oliver and Greg Rousseau couldn’t.  
 

You also seem to have ignored the part in my post that addressed the Chiefs making their own luck and, at some point, our excuses fall flat. 
 

 

 

I don't understand the point "without Chris Jones. " He's probably their 2nd best player.  Obviously without him it would be tough.  Same with most teams. 

[DrBob806]

On 2/17/2023 at 6:43 PM, JohnNord said:

You are 100% correct Success.  To win a Super Bowl you not only need to be good - the bounces have to go your way.  If there’s anything that happened this year - it’s that the Bills did NOT get those bounces. 

The NFL tried to help us out though- moving a game into a dome that involved 2 outdoor teams, and potentially a game in Atlanta (a dome) with another two outdoor teams. The Bills didn't come through. 

[JohnNord]

2 minutes ago, DrBob806 said:

The NFL tried to help us out though- moving a game into a dome that involved 2 outdoor teams, and potentially a game in Atlanta (a dome) with another two outdoor teams. The Bills didn't come through. 

Ok…sure

[SCBills]

1 hour ago, cle23 said:

 

I don't understand the point "without Chris Jones. " He's probably their 2nd best player.  Obviously without him it would be tough.  Same with most teams. 

We lost Von Miller, our 3rd best player, after Allen and Diggs.  We went from a top 5 DL to, like, 26th or 28th.  
 

Chris Jones is their 3rd best player behind Mahomes and Kelce.   Take him off KC and they aren’t beating CIN … watching that game, that’s obvious. 
 

Nevermind that we had no Jones or Hyde in that game either.  Chiefs stayed healthy where it mattered.  
 

We had offensive issues too.. no doubt, but if the Chiefs had an injury situation like we did, especially to their main DL piece, it’s Bengals/Eagles in the Super Bowl. 
 

 

Edited February 19, 2023 by SCBills

[John from Riverside]

5 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

I hear what the OP is getting at, we do need some luck, but more so than that, we need a competent O-Line and a better #2 WR, as well as some real innovation with our OC’s & DC’s play designs…,  now where’s that horse, and what did i do with my club…,

 

GO BILLS!!!

I think teams make their own luck
 

Lean into what you’re good at and have the ability to make changes on the fly when it’s obvious that it’s not working

 

Don’t be afraid to take a swing at the fences
 

One of the things that really bothered me about last year’s team was we were league leaders in sacks when Von Miller was healthy and you could clearly see that one Von Miller went out. We were going to have a major drop off in that area and pressures.

 

We should’ve either changed up our defense to blitz more or we should’ve been looking at trades or guys on other teams practice squads that had the ability to generate crack pressure

 

We also didn’t seem to recognize whenever certain players had a knack for what we were looking for Kingsley got playing time in literally one game last year and showed more pass rushing ability than any player we had on the team except for Von Miller. What did they do whenever rotational lineman got healthy enough to play they took Kingsley off the field, don’t do that recognize that someone does something well and keep them involved. I don’t know if we have Kingsley under contract right now but I really hope that we bring him back. 

[HomeskillitMoorman]

Luck isn't enough to overcome having McDermott as coach unfortunately

[ShakAttack]

I agree. You know what REALLY bothers me is there has been so much grandstanding of Mahomes and the Chiefs since they (barely) got their 2nd SB win,   Don’t get me wrong, as much as I can’t stand the guy, I respect the hell out of Mahomes, but the Chiefs had about as much “good luck” to get the Super Bowl this year as we had “bad luck”.

 

 I was watching the Week 6 matchup between KC and Bills last night and it was really, really hard to watch knowing the Bills had FINALLY figured it out. Von Miller had impacted Mahomes SO MUCH and he was delivering on everything we brought him here to do, with the team we wanted him to do it against! Bills were clearly the better team in that game and that is the team we expected to have when the playoffs started (even though we were still missing Hyde and White).  That will probably always go down as one of the toughest games for me to re-watch, because it was after that game that I finally allowed myself to believe we were the best and we could do it, and it was also after that game that everything went down hill for the Bills.

 

I think that’s what makes this season (still) so difficult for me. It’s what could have been. It’s people suddenly dismissing guys like Allen now and acting like Mahomes is untouchable. Is he the best? Yes. But he’s not untouchable. Bills are 2-1 in the last 3 games against KC, all in Arrowhead, and in that ONE loss, Allen did not even touch the ball after taking the lead with 13 seconds left which is enough to walk off with the win 99% of the time… unless your special teams somehow botches a squib kick call (speaking of good luck for KC..)

 

I do prefer the Bills going into next season as less of a favorite than this year though. I think it’s pretty clear NFL teams are fueled on perceived doubt, and the Bills were definitely one of those teams prior to 2022. Well, there will be plenty of doubt going into 2023, for what it’s worth. Now, can we just stay (relatively) healthy? That would qualify as some “good luck” for me!

[Beast]

Hard to argue. 

[Airseven]

Unfortunately, it seems the only way the Bills will ever overcome the Chiefs in the playoffs is, well, luck.

[Gregg]

7 hours ago, Airseven said:

Unfortunately, it seems the only way the Bills will ever overcome the Chiefs in the playoffs is, well, luck.

 

Build a better OL and the Chiefs become very beatable in the playoffs. Allen can't be the main focus of the running game. When Allen drops back to pass, he shouldn't have to run for his life most of the time. See Bengals playoff game as an example of that. The Bills did beat the Chiefs twice in Arrowhead in the regular season. They are beatable but the Bills need to fix some of their issues on offense if they want to beat them in the playoffs.