Beane’s “trade” his real mistake

[Process]

In hindsight, yes we should have passed on Von. 

 

But at the time it made sense. We have been cycling average, zero impact d lineman for years, despite investing an absurd amount of resources into the line. McBeane clearly can't evaluate d line talent. They needed to add a proven difference maker. 

[Nextmanup]

2 minutes ago, Process said:

In hindsight, yes we should have passed on Von. 

 

But at the time it made sense. We have been cycling average, zero impact d lineman for years, despite investing an absurd amount of resources into the line. McBeane clearly can't evaluate d line talent. They needed to add a proven difference maker. 

In Beane's defense, it was kind of a "all chips to the center of the table" move designed to push us over the top for a SB win THIS YEAR.  The Rams gambled the same way the year before, and it worked!

 

It didn't work for us, and that deal will not work for us going forward.

 

I guess that is to be expected considering we are Bills fans.

 

😁

[BarleyNY]

49 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

Agree, about 90%.

 

I'm starting to think pass rush from the interior is more important than from off the edge.

 

Age aside, would you rather have a Chris Jones or a Von Miller?

 

With these quick passing offenses, it's more about disruption in the lap of the QB and the quickest route to the QB is up the middle.  

 

It's another reason why the Ed Oliver pick was such a big miss.  Imagine Jeffrey Simmons next to Daquan Jones?  We could be fine with Epenesa & Basham types off the edge because the interior would be collapsed with regularity. 

 

As much as I loathe the obsessive Defensive investment.... I think Beane SERIOUSLY needs to look at getting small, undersized Oliver, with his big cap hit, off this roster and replaced with another Daquan Jones.... and tbh, if he trades Oliver, I'd be ok with a high pick DT investment. 

I’m not saying that there’s not a whole other issue with the fact that the Bills had to go get Von Miller to fix their pass rush woes. Especially after pouring so many resources into the DL. Just saying that he could’ve made a big difference in that game. 

[transient]

46 minutes ago, \GoBillsInDallas/ said:

 

You said "member"

 

Not quite the context I was going for with "the members of TBD"... but maybe not that far off, sometimes. 

[BarleyNY]

38 minutes ago, balln said:

No. It’s the whole scheme. Chris jones blowing up their line - only really matters bc they play tight man to man up on the line. It makes qb hold a bit longer 

 

even if Von and Hyde we still lose. We’re 10 yards off and give them whatever they want 

 

The DBs could’ve played more aggressively if they could’ve counted on the DL pressuring Burrow. We also would not have had to blitz nearly as much (not that it did a lot of good). 

32 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said:

Von Miller doesn’t make a difference in that CIN game, not with the calls Frazier sent in. Burrow got the ball out somewhere around 2 seconds, to wide open receivers. It’s not like he was holding it, waiting for someone to come open. The game plan was flawed, as it is most of the time in the playoffs. Miller doesn’t get pressure because nothing the Bills did forced Joe to hold the football. It was pitch and catch in the snow.

Would’ve likely been a different defense played if the DL could’ve gotten pressure. 

33 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

I personally would NEVER have thrown a ton of money at a "pass rusher" in the twilight of his career.

 

It's stupid GM-ing 101.

 

It doesn't translate enough to added wins.  

 

Having said that, I like Beane a lot and think he is smarter than most in his profession.

 

I'd be happy to see McDermott go tomorrow, but I want to keep Beane around for a long time.

 

He is not without his mistakes, however.

 

Lack of production from the other players he brought in led to needing to make a move like Von Miller. There is certainly blame to be laid on Beane and the coaching staff that they were in that position. 

[Brand J]

11 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

The DBs could’ve played more aggressively if they could’ve counted on the DL pressuring Burrow. We also would not have had to blitz nearly as much (not that it did a lot of good). 

Would’ve likely been a different defense played if the DL could’ve gotten pressure. 

Lack of production from the other players he brought in led to needing to make a move like Von Miller. There is certainly blame to be laid on Beane and the coaching staff that they were in that position. 

We can speculate that a completely different defense would’ve been called if Miller was on the field, sure, but Frazier is on record leading up to that game as saying they “just have to find ways to make him (Burrow) hold the football.” That was the game plan Frazier came up with to force Burrow to hold the ball? It was the opposite of his intentions, it allowed Burrow to get the ball out quickly to his playmakers. He had the best game of his postseason against Frazier’s D. 

[JerseyBills]

At first I thought it was a luxury signing.  It proved to be a necessity and Von looked worth every penny before the injury 

[PBF81]

The Von Miller trade was a swing for the fences with risks.  If he was correct, it may have propelled us to a SB win.  If not, then clearly there would be significant set-backs. 

 

The assumption underlying the trade was that the singular piece missing from our inability to win it all was a premier pass-rusher.  

 

The upside, if everything went right, then we'd win a Super Bowl.  The drawback, any number of things could go wrong:  diminished performance, that particular piece not being the "singular piece," or injury to a 33-year old player.  

 

The risks obviously played out whereas the benefits did not.  

 

Here's my take:  

 

Had any of the following of Beane's draft picks worked out to above-average performance at the pass-rushing position, then he wouldn't have needed to take that risk:  Rousseau 1st round, Basham 2nd round, Epenesa 2nd round, Oliver trade-up high 1st-round.  Neither did any of his free-agent acquisitions.  

 

Now we have soon-to-be 34-year old OLB/DE that hasn't played to a premier level in several seasons (last one having been 2018), and coming off of an ACL repair.  The odds of him being above-average next season are not good, if he even hits the field for week 1.  At 34 he's only going to diminish.  

 

So at the end of the day it turned out to be a bad move.  The risks were hardly unknown however, so it was a swing for the fences, but a miss.  

[BarleyNY]

21 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said:

We can speculate that a completely different defense would’ve been called if Miller was on the field, sure, but Frazier is on record leading up to that game as saying they “just have to find ways to make him (Burrow) hold the football.” That was the game plan Frazier came up with to force Burrow to hold the ball? It was the opposite of his intentions, it allowed Burrow to get the ball out quickly to his playmakers. He had the best game of his postseason against Frazier’s D. 

I don’t understand Frazier’s comment. The defense the Bills played did nothing to make Burrow hold the ball. Quite the opposite. In any case, personnel and what they can accomplish can always be subverted by poor coaching. That’s a different problem and conversation. One that I think we both agree exists. 

[harmonkillebrew]

It was a big risk. That was a lot of money in one, older guy.  Basically a moon shot for a 2 year SB window.

 

Add in all the draft picks used on DE and we are totally lopsided in where we have invested. 

[Success]

Reggie White was signed by the Green Bay Packers when he was the same age as Von.  He played w/ them for 6 years after that, and was effective right up until the end of this time there.  He helped them win a Super Bowl.

 

I think "Old Man Miller" will be just fine when he gets back from injury, and do the same for the Bills.  

 

[NastyNateSoldiers]

3 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:

He made a really good play and helped us win a big game.  Was that worth the cost to you?  If so, congrats, you win.

Well that’s a difficult question and pretty complex.  What it doesn’t contain is an expectation to get hall of famers with every pick or be able to pick guys at 27 that were actually drafted at 4.  It also doesn’t include expectations that all players we pass over will become abject failures.

U don’t need hofers at every pick but u do need to hit on some difference makers every once in a while and that’s something he hasn’t done other then the Josh Pk in 2018. Please don’t use the excuse of drafting late in the first rd because the Ravens, Steelers amongst other have drafted brilliantly from the end of the first rd for years. 
 

I can tell this for certain your not gonna find much difference makers at DE towards the end of the first rd or the 2nd rd for some reason that’s been the weak spot for that position for yrs. It’s on the GM to know this and to look at other positions to draft late in the first or in the 2nd rd. Wrs, RBs, Oline, Lbers , corners just about every other position u can find elite players in those spots. It seems to me that McD meddles in the draft a little too much just the other day I was watching footage of when we drafted Boogie and McD was amped saying he got a great feeling about Boogie and Beane looked kind of disturbed with the whole thing like here we go again type look on his face. Beane got to take control and keep McD out of it if not they’ll be both out of a job soon. 

[Brand J]

33 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

I don’t understand Frazier’s comment. The defense the Bills played did nothing to make Burrow hold the ball. Quite the opposite. In any case, personnel and what they can accomplish can always be subverted by poor coaching. That’s a different problem and conversation. One that I think we both agree exists. 

That’s what I found damning personally.

[freddyjj]

3 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:

Three more years of huge gobs of money…

OBD can get out of deal after 2024 with $52.4mm having been spent from 2022-2024 seasons and with a dead cap hit of $7.4 mm that could be split over 2025 and 2026 seasons.  

 

My belief is OBD was moving on from Poyer anyways after last off season drama and his 2022 injury hampered season - not sure how Von contract affected that decision.  Why would you not blame players releases on Josh's contract?  What if Josh gets hurt next year and is out? - will Beane be blamed for giving him the keys to the castle?

 

 

[Mango]

2 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:

My post was not to say it was a bad move or to say “I told you so” about Miller in any way.  It was to say that the move for Miller came with a cost.  That cost has created holes that need to be filled.  
 

There are people all over this board saying Beane has drafted poorly which is simply not true.  Poorly would imply worse than at least 16 other teams.  Has anyone even attempted to make that case?  No.  They cherry pick how we could have had DK Metclaf or other stupid anecdotal stuff.  
 

The Miller move could have resulted in a Super Bowl championship this weekend.  It didn’t.  It resulted in a video with stuff burning, a bunch of roster holes, and an injury.  Now, if Beane doesn’t fill all of those holes it will just “prove” that he is bad at drafting to some here.  That’s dumb.

I think the Bills have the potential to be a bad football team next year. Not 5 win bad. But 10-7 is a real possibility. When you enter the 2022 season as such league favorites only to fall so flat, with so little in the hopper in terms of quality rookies, and absolutely zero cap space; you’ve made a number of compounding mistakes.

 

Once Josh became Josh the bar was raised. The Bills are in completion with the Chiefs and right now the Chiefs have down a much better job of navigating the cap, free agency, and the draft. It really isn’t close. 

[Bob Chandler's Hands]

3 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:

I don’t criticize the dice rolling, but the result was poor. 

Then don't criticize the dice rolling. But you are doing exactly that.

 

Hey, do you have any stock market picks for me for 2021 or know who will win the World Series in 2019? I want to make some money and you seem pretty good at hindsight.

[4merper4mer]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chandler's Hands said:

Then don't criticize the dice rolling. But you are doing exactly that.

 

Hey, do you have any stock market picks for me for 2021 or know who will win the World Series in 2019? I want to make some money and you seem pretty good at hindsight.

No I’m not.  He took a shot,  it flopped.  The potential payoff was big this year.  The cost was sustainability moving forward.  The point is that Beane’s mythological ineptitude at drafting is not the issue others will make it out to be.  What cost us most was the failed Miller gamble.

11 minutes ago, Mango said:

I think the Bills have the potential to be a bad football team next year. Not 5 win bad. But 10-7 is a real possibility. When you enter the 2022 season as such league favorites only to fall so flat, with so little in the hopper in terms of quality rookies, and absolutely zero cap space; you’ve made a number of compounding mistakes.

 

Once Josh became Josh the bar was raised. The Bills are in completion with the Chiefs and right now the Chiefs have down a much better job of navigating the cap, free agency, and the draft. It really isn’t close. 

On what planet is a 10-7 record an indicator of a bad team….in any sport?

40 minutes ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

U don’t need hofers at every pick but u do need to hit on some difference makers every once in a while and that’s something he hasn’t done other then the Josh Pk in 2018. Please don’t use the excuse of drafting late in the first rd because the Ravens, Steelers amongst other have drafted brilliantly from the end of the first rd for years. 
 

I can tell this for certain your not gonna find much difference makers at DE towards the end of the first rd or the 2nd rd for some reason that’s been the weak spot for that position for yrs. It’s on the GM to know this and to look at other positions to draft late in the first or in the 2nd rd. Wrs, RBs, Oline, Lbers , corners just about every other position u can find elite players in those spots. It seems to me that McD meddles in the draft a little too much just the other day I was watching footage of when we drafted Boogie and McD was amped saying he got a great feeling about Boogie and Beane looked kind of disturbed with the whole thing like here we go again type look on his face. Beane got to take control and keep McD out of it if not they’ll be both out of a job soon. 

If you’re going to claim the Ravens and Steelers are better at drafting than the Bills overall then make your case without cherry picking one or two guys.  If your going to claim Beane is bad at drafting, repeat the excercise with at least 15 teams.

[eball]

Just sayin'....if Von doesn't get hurt, the Bills are playing on Sunday.

 

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

Counter argument: The biggest difference between the defenses KC and the Bills put up against the Bengals was that KC got pressure on Burrow quickly. The impact that one KC player made was largely responsible for that. A healthy Von could’ve done the same for us. I’m not saying there weren’t other issues that day, but he’d have solved one. 

 

 

True.

 

And fwiw Miller was having one of the best seasons of his career............on a per-play basis probably the best since his greatest season in 2012.

 

Beane has been terrible at signing free agents from other teams but the Miller signing was looking great, IMO.

 

The other DL signings and Saffold were all clear overpays even at the time...........which I can't understand.........they need to know that Rodger Saffold is a league minimum vet at that point in his career(not $6M) and the same with Jordan Phillips.    Even Daquan Jones, who played well, was a $4M per year market kinda' player........his salary the season prior in Carolina..........and the Bills have a $9M cap hit on him for 2023.    I'm constantly perplexed by the valuations he comes up with in UFA.    

[NastyNateSoldiers]

25 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

No I’m not.  He took a shot,  it flopped.  The potential payoff was big this year.  The cost was sustainability moving forward.  The point is that Beane’s mythological ineptitude at drafting is not the issue others will make it out to be.  What cost us most was the failed Miller gamble.

On what planet is a 10-7 record an indicator of a bad team….in any sport?

If you’re going to claim the Ravens and Steelers are better at drafting than the Bills overall then make your case without cherry picking one or two guys.  If your going to claim Beane is bad at drafting, repeat the excercise with at least 15 teams.

If u wanna act like a top flight organization u got to do top flight organization stuff!  I’m not comparing to every other team in the league I’m going to compare to the best . Beane and McD are not there! 

[Charles Romes]

Von was the team’s best player through 10 games. Two of our best and most expensive players - Von and Tre - were taken out by turf so horrendous that the NFLPA is demanding it be made illegal.  That’s the mind numbing part. 

[78thealltimegreat]

Beane has an all World QB who about 20 teams would trade a kings ransom for and he relies heavily on him to make his mediocre otalent look better than it is. That has to change. 

[Success]

2 hours ago, eball said:

Just sayin'....if Von doesn't get hurt, the Bills are playing on Sunday.

 

 

And if he, JA and Diggs can all be healthy this time next year - we'll still be playing in '24....

 

[HappyDays]

Von's contract is not the problem. He has a cap hit of $18.5 million next year, and $21.2 million in 2024. Here's the problem:

 

Saffold $4 million cap hit 2021

Addison $10 million cap hit 2020

Butler $8 million cap hit 2020

 

There's $22 million wasted on the first three players that came to mind, and there's plenty more examples where that came from. Spending all of that money on one elite player is inarguably a better decision.

 

Also we wouldn't have beat the Bengals with Von Miller anyways. Burrow was able to get the ball out quick because of our defensive scheme and the offense scored 10 points. That was a loss even with our full roster from day one IMO.

[HappyDays]

5 hours ago, SCBills said:

With these quick passing offenses, it's more about disruption in the lap of the QB and the quickest route to the QB is up the middle.  

 

It's another reason why the Ed Oliver pick was such a big miss.  Imagine Jeffrey Simmons next to Daquan Jones?  We could be fine with Epenesa & Basham types off the edge because the interior would be collapsed with regularity. 

 

Yeah you could argue from a cost to value standpoint Ed Oliver is the worst pick Beane has made. 9th overall pick on a player that has made a 2nd round impact. It's made worse when the next three DTs taken - Wilkins, Lawrence, and Simmons - have all had more of an impact, as have two edge rushers taken soon after - Brian Burns and Rashan Gary. Five defensive linemen he could have had that we'd all be more pleased with as of today and he took the worst one. Hopefully Oliver can play a full season healthy next year and finally play to his full potential for more than just a couple games a year, but I'm not counting on it.

[K-9]

 

11 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Yeah you could argue from a cost to value standpoint Ed Oliver is the worst pick Beane has made. 9th overall pick on a player that has made a 2nd round impact. It's made worse when the next three DTs taken - Wilkins, Lawrence, and Simmons - have all had more of an impact, as have two edge rushers taken soon after - Brian Burns and Rashan Gary. Five defensive linemen he could have had that we'd all be more pleased with as of today and he took the worst one. Hopefully Oliver can play a full season healthy next year and finally play to his full potential for more than just a couple games a year, but I'm not counting on it.

Can you link me to all of your posts pounding the table for those players at the time? Hindsight GMing is the easiest job in the world. 

Edited February 9, 2023 by K-9

[HappyDays]

10 minutes ago, K-9 said:

 

Can you link me to all of your posts pounding the table for those players at the time? Hindsight GMing is the easiest job in the world. 

 

No, in fact I loved the Oliver pick. Him and DK Metcalf were the two players I wanted at #9 overall that year, no preference. But I'm not paid millions of dollars to make those decisions. Every time a GM is fired it's done with the benefit of hindsight. Their job is to make good decisions without that benefit.

[Alphadawg7]

6 hours ago, SCBills said:

Nah, not about to criticize Beane for signing Von to (essentially) a 3 year deal.

 

Defensive Line is THE most important part of your Defense - and is critical to post-season success. 

 

Year 1 didn't work out.  It is what it is.

 

I still believe Von will give us above average DE play with elite flashes in big moments for the next 2 years.  To me, that's worth the monetary investment at that position. 

 

What we should do with the DL this off-season, however, is clean up the mistakes and prepare for the future.. 

 

-Ship Oliver and Basham out of here for whatever we can get. 

 

-Extend Daquan Jones. 

 

-Work out a way to get Jerry Hughes back. 

 

-Draft a space eating DT.

 

-Bring back Shaq and Phillips.

 

Gives us Von, Hughes, Rousseau, Epenesa and Shaq at EDGE, with Daquan, Draft Pick, Settle and Phillips inside.   Also gives us Von, Rousseau, Daquan and a Draft Pick locked up past next year. 

 

 

 

Agree with most all this...I would also trade Oliver ahead of the draft personally.  Not because he is a bad player, but he just does not succeed consistently enough and also relies heavily on those around him to succeed.  So I can not see him being worth the investment next year.  Worst case, if they can't get at least a 3rd rounder for him, I suppose they can run it back and let him leave in FA and try and recoup a 3rd rounder that way.  

 

Absolutely bring Shaq back, I think Phillips signed a 2 year deal if I am not mistaken, so I think he is already back.  If I am wrong, then yes bring him back too.  

 

Not sure Hughes is the right answer to bring back.  I think you gotta stick with the youth, and for as much flack as AJE gets, people don't seem to realize he had 6.5 sacks here this year in limited playing time.  Hughes only had more than that like 3 times his whole career.  

 

I don't think you can trade Basham yet, not until they know when Von is going to be ready as we will need the depth and he is on a rookie contract and cheap.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

So suppose If we’re going to get retrospective on the merit of Von signing…. we should talk about Hassan Reddick’s year

[4merper4mer]

3 hours ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

If u wanna act like a top flight organization u got to do top flight organization stuff!  I’m not comparing to every other team in the league I’m going to compare to the best . Beane and McD are not there! 

Ok list a team or two’s drafts from top to bottom…..not cherry picked and display Beane’s deficiencies.  It ought to be easy for you.  Also, where does “top flight” end?  Top 10, 5, 3, only 1?

[snamsnoops]

3 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Beane has an all World QB who about 20 teams would trade a kings ransom for and he relies heavily on him to make his mediocre otalent look better than it is. That has to change. 

QB is what we have needed since Kelly. We found our QB now we need to build around him.... Hopefully improvements on the O-line will help...

 

[HugeHeffner11]

On 1/28/2023 at 3:00 PM, ProcessTruster said:

Reducing turnovers.   Period.   

 

Top 5 roster across the board.   This is a very good football team who shot themselves in the foot at the execution level with turnovers.    

 

Beane will make moves to improve where he can afford it in the next couple months as usual.   

 

Cut this years turnovers in half and I'm not sure we aren't still watching Bills football right now.  

 

[JackKemp]

From big balls Beane to he’s a failure. Fickle fans. Give me 3 more years of relevant football and a chance to win a Super Bowl. Beane is the man. 

Edited February 10, 2023 by JackKemp

[BringBackFlutie]

12 hours ago, Logic said:

Gonna be a looong six months around here...

 

Only 6 months? It always feels like 9.

[par73]

The Chiefs are in the Super Bowl with a couple rookies playing at a high level in the secondary--- and no Tyreek Hill. The Bills got Elam and Benford-- two question marks, who struggled more often than not (defensive scheme is an issue, but looks like nothing will change there). Elam was even a healthy scratch once.

[97bills]

20 hours ago, SCBills said:

Nah, not about to criticize Beane for signing Von to (essentially) a 3 year deal.

 

Defensive Line is THE most important part of your Defense - and is critical to post-season success. 

 

Year 1 didn't work out.  It is what it is.

 

I still believe Von will give us above average DE play with elite flashes in big moments for the next 2 years.  To me, that's worth the monetary investment at that position. 

 

What we should do with the DL this off-season, however, is clean up the mistakes and prepare for the future.. 

 

-Ship Oliver and Basham out of here for whatever we can get. 

 

-Extend Daquan Jones. 

 

-Work out a way to get Jerry Hughes back. 

 

-Draft a space eating DT.

 

-Bring back Shaq and Phillips.

 

Gives us Von, Hughes, Rousseau, Epenesa and Shaq at EDGE, with Daquan, Draft Pick, Settle and Phillips inside.   Also gives us Von, Rousseau, Daquan and a Draft Pick locked up past next year. 

 

 

Jerry Hughes - epenesa - Shaq. Are you serious lol