Gabe Davis caught an abysmal 51.6% of his 93 targets this year. Update: High% off target

[BarleyNY]

Just now, Lane Meyer K12 said:

Not making any projections, but Buffalo had a receiver by the name of Eric Moulds who dropped a lot of passes his first few seasons. He was considered a disappointment. However, around season four, Moulds became one of the better receivers in the league. He ended up having a productive career in Buffalo. Possibly, Davis has the same upside and just needs a little more time. He has talent and has shown flashes. Maybe, year four it clicks.

I think Davis should be here for year four, but that the Bills should also put some resources into improving the WR position. That means either upgrading WR2 or at least bringing in real competition for it. Year 4 is the last of Davis’ rookie contract so next season will be the now or never year for him with the Bills. 

[BuffaloRebound]

It’s almost a must that the Bills give Josh at least a 1B to Diggs 1A.  He’s hard not to like but Diggs seems like a ticking time bomb.  Plus he’s not getting any younger.  

[78thealltimegreat]

1 hour ago, colin said:

he's a pure JAG.

 

allen has made brown and older beat up bease look like dynamic threats, when they are in fact very limited and can be erased by a D.

 

he and mckenzie run just trash routes way too often and have bad hands.  they just don't have any special talents or skills.

 

upside take: an above average to good wr in his place would add a ton to our O

Greg Cosell agrees with you 

[OldTimer1960]

22 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

It's not just the catch rate, it's the (lack of) targets.  Buffalo had 551 attempts in 2022, 154 of which went to Diggs which is understandable.  But on the ~400 other targets, Davis had less than a quarter of those on a team with a decent but not exceptional option at TE and little at the slot WR.    

 

I have to believe that after that KC game, McBeane and their All-Star Personnel Team assumed Davis would start catching more passes and getting open more jumping from WR3 to WR2.  Or, they wanted to believe in their assessment of Davis because they wanted more defense.  

 

People care about firing Frazier, but those doing the self-scouting of their own players at OBD and/or prioritizing positional needs really need to be examined.  Especially on offense where they continually fail to invest and, when they do, the results are underwhelming.  Too many misses at the skill positions. 

 

 

I don’t think it’s fair to assume that they didn’t know that Davis might not progress.  There are only limited number of draft picks and very limited money for other issues.  
 

Beyond the above, I don’t think it would have been unreasonable to think Davis was improving after the KC playoff game.  It hasn’t materialized clearly, but he played really well that game.

[colin]

Just now, 78thealltimegreat said:

Greg Cosell agrees with you 

 

ya, very few of my thoughts are even approaching original.

 

it's pretty clear to me josh just didn't trust his guys near the end of the year.  i think that's the reason for us just blasting the ball deep so much.  if you can't count on precision on short routes, you risk turnovers close, so you might as well go deeper where the rewards are bigger and teh penalties are smaller.

 

i think either mckenzie is always out of position, or josh has zero faith in his hands.

[OldTimer1960]

7 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

It’s almost a must that the Bills give Josh at least a 1B to Diggs 1A.  He’s hard not to like but Diggs seems like a ticking time bomb.  Plus he’s not getting any younger.  

So, who is that 1B going to be in the draft?  They will be picking among consolation prizes at WR at end of round 1.  Can they find a good one there?  Maybe…

[billieve420]

14 hours ago, GolfandBills said:

Gabes problem other than he can’t catch is that he’s horrible in the short and intermediate areas of the field.  

 

Yeah everything was deep to Gabe so didn't see a lot of easy completions in the short to intermediate range.

[BuffaloRebound]

5 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

So, who is that 1B going to be in the draft?  They will be picking among consolation prizes at WR at end of round 1.  Can they find a good one there?  Maybe…

Seems like the QB’s and Edge guys will go early.  Haven’t watched enough college football to know who the good WR’s are, but I’d love for Beane to move up a to get a difference maker at WR. Garrett Wilson went 10th last year.  Chris Olave went 11th. Somebody of that ilk in that range.  

[BillsVet]

12 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I don’t think it’s fair to assume that they didn’t know that Davis might not progress.  There are only limited number of draft picks and very limited money for other issues.  
 

Beyond the above, I don’t think it would have been unreasonable to think Davis was improving after the KC playoff game.  It hasn’t materialized clearly, but he played really well that game.

 

Every single team is bound by resource limitations...it's how an organization scores their positional priorities that matters.    

 

Compare any position group on defense versus the offense and you'll see this.  The DB's, LBs, and DL all have received more in picks/UFA dollars compared to the OL, RB/WR/TE position groups. 

 

If (and it's only 'if) they believed Davis could graduate to being a WR2 on the basis of that 2021 AFC Divisional Round game, then their decision makers are extremely lacking.    

[CincyBillsFan]

12 minutes ago, colin said:

 

ya, very few of my thoughts are even approaching original.

 

it's pretty clear to me josh just didn't trust his guys near the end of the year.  i think that's the reason for us just blasting the ball deep so much.  if you can't count on precision on short routes, you risk turnovers close, so you might as well go deeper where the rewards are bigger and teh penalties are smaller.

 

i think either mckenzie is always out of position, or josh has zero faith in his hands.

This is a great point.  I remember a couple of examples of this:

 

*  One was in the Detroit game Cook stopped in the spot that a D Tackle was blocking Allen's vision.  Allen expected him to keep moving into an open space and threw the ball to that spot.  Only by pure luck was that pass NOT intercepted in what would have looked to people like a terrible Allen throw.

 

* And remember the pass to Shakir that went for about 30 yards.  It was a short pass where Shakir came back to the ball as Allen moved up in the pocket.  The camera caught Allen making an expressive thumbs up sign to Shakir which led me to believe that they had talked in film/practice about this and Shakir actually ran the pattern correctly for the first time.

 

There were others to but my guess is that it would be eye opening if we were a fly on the wall in the film room.  I bet we would be stunned by how often Bills receivers ran the wrong pattern or didn't react properly as a play broke down in the 5 - 10 yard zone. Folks are quick to blame Allen for not taking the short passes but if guys are not getting where they're supposed to be a QB will back away from those throws real quickly.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, colin said:

he's a pure JAG.

 

allen has made brown and older beat up bease look like dynamic threats, when they are in fact very limited and can be erased by a D.

 

he and mckenzie run just trash routes way too often and have bad hands.  they just don't have any special talents or skills.

 

upside take: an above average to good wr in his place would add a ton to our O

Yep.  Allen clearly elevated Beasley & Brown's game extending their careers in the process.  And don't forget how Allen elevated Sanders play last season.  Just like he did with Foster in 2018. 

[OldTimer1960]

11 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Seems like the QB’s and Edge guys will go early.  Haven’t watched enough college football to know who the good WR’s are, but I’d love for Beane to move up a to get a difference maker at WR. Garrett Wilson went 10th last year.  Chris Olave went 11th. Somebody of that ilk in that range.  

Me too, but I don’t think there is any chance of that.  I don’t think there is a WR as good as either of those two this year and Bills can’t afford to trade their picks and still get help for OL and S.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

14 hours ago, CoudyBills said:

Can't be.  I read here that he is a solid number 2 option.  

I think you inadvertently added the word option and misread the context of a ‘number 2’

[Your Brown Eye]

I was an idiot and drafted him very high in our fantasy draft based on last year Chiefs playoff game...wooof

[Drew21PA]

Begs the question

 

Did Allen really “regress” with his number 2 drop off being because of his number 2 dropping a lot of passes - potential TDs, and responsible for some picks?

 

im not in the camp to say Allen regressed I saw some things Davis struggled with and caused some issues with Allen (INT and comp %}
 

since it was a down year - could he gain another 35-40% production in his last year of his rookie contract ?  Or too much of a liability?

 

last question

if Gabe actually does his job - is Dorsey REALLY that bad?  I have to wonder myself now that the wounds are slowly healing.

 

I feel our defense is too giving and Dorsey is too young for McDermott to be saying “screw it our offense can score a gazillion points” 

 

maybe Dorsey matures it can be that way…idk 

 

 

[BuffaloRebound]

10 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Me too, but I don’t think there is any chance of that.  I don’t think there is a WR as good as either of those two this year and Bills can’t afford to trade their picks and still get help for OL and S.

Then trade up to the 10-12 range for the best Offensive Tackle still available and sign a premier WR free agent.  Josh desperately needs an influx of premier talent at WR and OL.  Ed Oliver + pick 27 for Houston’s pick 12.  

[CoudyBills]

1 hour ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

I think you inadvertently added the word option and misread the context of a ‘number 2’

I see what you did there.  

[Straight Hucklebuck]

10 hours ago, pennstate10 said:

I don’t believe Gabe YAC was 2.9 yds. 
Do you have a reference for that stat?

It was either in this video:

 

or this video:

McKenzie was only at 3.9 yards after catch. 

[Nextmanup]

He's way too inconsistent to be a No. 2 on any team in the NFL.

 

Move on from him!

 

 

[billieve420]

1 hour ago, Drew21PA said:

Begs the question

 

Did Allen really “regress” with his number 2 drop off being because of his number 2 dropping a lot of passes - potential TDs, and responsible for some picks?

 

im not in the camp to say Allen regressed I saw some things Davis struggled with and caused some issues with Allen (INT and comp %}
 

since it was a down year - could he gain another 35-40% production in his last year of his rookie contract ?  Or too much of a liability?

 

last question

if Gabe actually does his job - is Dorsey REALLY that bad?  I have to wonder myself now that the wounds are slowly healing.

 

I feel our defense is too giving and Dorsey is too young for McDermott to be saying “screw it our offense can score a gazillion points” 

 

maybe Dorsey matures it can be that way…idk 

 

 

 

There were some easy completions out there to be had where Allen decided to force the issue deeper so definitely things for him to work on in the offseason. I still think he needs an upgrade at offensive line where he is not constantly looking to escape once the ball is snapped and a line that can effectively run the ball consistently.

[SCBills]

1 hour ago, OldTimer1960 said:

So, who is that 1B going to be in the draft?  They will be picking among consolation prizes at WR at end of round 1.  Can they find a good one there?  Maybe…

 

I'd be shocked if the Bills didn't do something we're not expecting to get a legit WR2 in here before the draft.  

 

Beane went into the draft last year needing a CB, and had to panic trade to get Elam.  It would seem to be malpractice to do that again at WR, given the fact we could very well be looking at their RD1 targets at WR all being gone by the time we draft and/or potentially gone before we even get to a place where we can entertain trade-ups.  

 

Maybe someone like Addison falls to the 20's and we can move up or sit tight, but I'm certainly not banking on that. 

[BuffaloRebound]

2 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

I'd be shocked if the Bills didn't do something we're not expecting to get a legit WR2 in here before the draft.  

 

Beane went into the draft last year needing a CB, and had to panic trade to get Elam.  It would seem to be malpractice to do that again at WR, given the fact we could very well be looking at their RD1 targets at WR all being gone by the time we draft and/or potentially gone before we even get to a place where we can entertain trade-ups.  

 

Maybe someone like Addison falls to the 20's and we can move up or sit tight, but I'm certainly not banking on that. 

 

That’s the catch of having Super Bowl expectations leading into a draft.  Rebuilding teams with tons of holes can sit back and let the draft fall to them.  Teams like the Bills and Chiefs have to aggressively target specific players at specific positions.  

It’ll never happen since the draft has become its own ecosystem, but it really makes sense to do the draft before free agency.  By then, everybody knows who the teams without a lot of holes are targeting.  

[Trock]

This guy needs to be traded or cut asap.  Major liability. 

[JohnBonhamRocks]

I think the idea of “WR2” and “WR3” may be a bit outdated. Most offenses nowadays I would think use 3-4 WRs regularly. Davis has shown he can be one of those 3-4. We need another guy who can also be part of that. Diggs, Davis, McKenzie/Shakir, and John Doe. Given Diggs’ age, Davis’ contract/inconsistently, and how the WE $ recently skyrocketed, I hope we get someone like Addison in Round 1. I want a separator, not a jump ball guy. Give Allen a new Beasley who gets open quickly and commands attention in the middle of the field, and I think you see Davis’ numbers return to form/meet expectations. 

[SCBills]

4 minutes ago, JohnBonhamRocks said:

I think the idea of “WR2” and “WR3” may be a bit outdated. Most offenses nowadays I would think use 3-4 WRs regularly. Davis has shown he can be one of those 3-4. We need another guy who can also be part of that. Diggs, Davis, McKenzie/Shakir, and John Doe. Given Diggs’ age, Davis’ contract/inconsistently, and how the WE $ recently skyrocketed, I hope we get someone like Addison in Round 1. I want a separator, not a jump ball guy. Give Allen a new Beasley who gets open quickly and commands attention in the middle of the field, and I think you see Davis’ numbers return to form/meet expectations. 

 

I'm perfectly fine with Gabe Davis as WR3, and if we can pay him long term as such.. great.  

 

That said, you need to have two the following:

 

Elite WR1

Elite WR2

Elite OL

 

Bengals have an elite WR1, WR2 and a good OL before injuries hit and derailed their playoff run against Chris Jones/KC.

 

KC has an elite WR1 (Kelce) and an elite OL.

 

Bills have an elite WR1.  

 

Addison would be perfect, and no matter what we do in FA, he should be a guy we're willing to move up to get if he gets within range. 

[nucci]

How many were bad throws from Allen?

[TheBrownBear]

The oddest thing to me about Gabe's regression was how often he had zero awareness of where the sideline boundary lines were this year.  My recollection is that he had a handful of potential catches where he made no attempt to drag or stutter step his feet to stay in bounds.  And that always seemed to be a previous area of strength for him.  Any way you slice it, he just had a real dog of a year.

Edited February 6, 2023 by TheBrownBear

[DrDawkinstein]

I know bashing Davis is hot right now (along with bashing anyone/everyone else from the team), but let's look at those numbers...

 

93 Targets

51.3% Catches (48)

7 true Drops

 

48 catches + 7 drops = 55

 

93 - 55 =38

 

So for all those targets, 38 of them (41%) were flat out misses by Josh. Mostly those deep, low percentage heaves that Josh just cant STOP himself from throwing when the D shows Cover 0 or Man or whatever gets him so excited.

 

Davis could have and should have had a better year. He had some bad drops, and some bad games. But a lot of his regression was due to the leaders of the Offense (Josh and Dorsey) completely losing their way on how to take what the D gives you, keep the drive alive, and move the ball down the field.

 

 

 

12 minutes ago, nucci said:

How many were bad throws from Allen?

 

Ding ding ding. A lot of them.

 

Meanwhile, Knox and Singletary running open underneath...

[78thealltimegreat]

13 minutes ago, nucci said:

How many were bad throws from Allen?

Not many see the last pass of the Jets game that hit him from 70 yards between the 1 and 3 for example 

[TheBrownBear]

14 hours ago, NoSaint said:

that said, he never looked crisp all year. Part of me hopes we find out he was playing through some sort of core injury in addition to the early ankle. It could explain so much…

 

That's kind of my hope too.  He came back fairly quickly from that high ankle sprain and was basically useless in the Miami and Baltimore games.  A professional wide receiver needs to be able to cut quickly and crisply, something that is hard to do on a bum ankle.  I basically lost my entire junior season of high school basketball because of a tough high ankle sprain suffered in practice a couple of weeks into the season.  I sat for about a week of practice and then rushed back way before I should have, because I didn't want to lose my spot.  I taped that ankle like a mutha, but I had zero explosiveness and struggled to stay in front of opposing guards for the rest of the season, and was demoted to spot or mop up duty by the time the playoffs came around.

 

The counterargument is that Davis did have that huge game against Pittsburgh three weeks after the injury, so I'm probably grasping at straws here.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

37 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

 

That’s the catch of having Super Bowl expectations leading into a draft.  Rebuilding teams with tons of holes can sit back and let the draft fall to them.  Teams like the Bills and Chiefs have to aggressively target specific players at specific positions.  

It’ll never happen since the draft has become its own ecosystem, but it really makes sense to do the draft before free agency.  By then, everybody knows who the teams without a lot of holes are targeting.  

 

That and the players association wants it pre-draft to make sure that its existing members get paid before rookies.  

[Gugny]

1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

I know bashing Davis is hot right now (along with bashing anyone/everyone else from the team), but let's look at those numbers...

 

93 Targets

51.3% Catches (48)

7 true Drops

 

48 catches + 7 drops = 55

 

93 - 55 =38

 

So for all those targets, 38 of them (41%) were flat out misses by Josh. Mostly those deep, low percentage heaves that Josh just cant STOP himself from throwing when the D shows Cover 0 or Man or whatever gets him so excited.

 

Davis could have and should have had a better year. He had some bad drops, and some bad games. But a lot of his regression was due to the leaders of the Offense (Josh and Dorsey) completely losing their way on how to take what the D gives you, keep the drive alive, and move the ball down the field.

 

 

 

 

Ding ding ding. A lot of them.

 

Meanwhile, Knox and Singletary running open underneath...

 

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Not many see the last pass of the Jets game that hit him from 70 yards between the 1 and 3 for example 

 

Actually, lots of them were desperation heaves by hero-ball Josh.

 

You mention 1 of 7 accounted for drops on the season.

 

There were still 38 missed targets.

 

Lot more on Josh than Gabe.

[pigpen65]

Yeah just a hugely disappointing year. Drops are one thing but by far my biggest concern with Davis was his development of the alligator arms. Maybe he always had em and it just wasn't noticeable because of his smaller role, but that's a trait that never improves.

[Pokebball]

19 minutes ago, nucci said:

How many were bad throws from Allen?

I don't think bad throws effect the catch percentage, right?

 

[nucci]

Just now, Pokebball said:

I don't think bad throws effect the catch percentage, right?

 

Not sure but the stat being used is targets...a bad throw is still a target for a receiver

[TheBrownBear]

4 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Actually, lots of them were desperation heaves by hero-ball Josh.

 

You mention 1 of 7 accounted for drops on the season.

 

There were still 38 missed targets.

 

Lot more on Josh than Gabe.

I agree that Josh's play after the bye left a lot to be desired, but it's not really fair to say all those missed targets were bad throws by Josh.  I assume some are pass breakups and others could potentially be good reads and decent throws where Gabe wasn't able to beat his man or make a good play on the ball for whatever reason.  Both Gabe and Josh (and to some extent Dorsey) share responsibility for Gabe's perceived underproduction this season.

Edited February 6, 2023 by TheBrownBear

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, TheBrownBear said:

I agree that Josh's play after the bye left a lot to be desired, but it's not really fair to say all those missed targets were bad throws by Josh.  I assume some are pass breakups and others could potentially be good reads and decent throws where Gabe wasn't able to beat his man or make a good play on the ball for whatever reason.  Both Gabe and Josh (and to some extent Dorsey) share responsibility for Gabe's perceived underproduction this season.

 

Agreed on all that. These WR conversations are always tough because the definitions of "target", "drop", etc are always cloudy.

 

I'm sure there are a few that are "nobody's fault, just good defense" and stuff like that.

 

My point was to illustrate that a good chunk of Gabe's regression was on Josh and Dorsey. Not simply all on Gabe forgetting how to play WR.

 

For all those targets, and for everyone's perception, the fact Davis is credited with only 7 drops should be an eye-opener for a lot of detractors here.

 

Not a great year for Davis, but maybe not as bad as many think.

[TheBrownBear]

4 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Agreed on all that. These WR conversations are always tough because the definitions of "target", "drop", etc are always cloudy.

 

I'm sure there are a few that are "nobody's fault, just good defense" and stuff like that.

 

My point was to illustrate that a good chunk of Gabe's regression was on Josh and Dorsey. Not simply all on Gabe forgetting how to play WR.

 

For all those targets, and for everyone's perception, the fact Davis is credited with only 7 drops should be an eye-opener for a lot of detractors here.

 

Not a great year for Davis, but maybe not as bad as many think.

Good points.

 

I think we are all looking for statistical evidence to support what we felt while watching Gabe this season.  Watching the All-22's, he just didn't look sharp in his route running and didn't appear strong in cutting and coming back/making a play on the ball.  And there was the alligator arm thing and his inexplicable lack of awareness of the sideline at times.  Ultimately, he failed the eye test for me.  Maybe I just wasn't paying enough attention to him in past seasons, because there weren't as many glaring mess ups due to his lesser target numbers.

[Flipnmi]

16 hours ago, Augie said:

Like with Knox, I will go on the record and say I still believe. 

 

Gabe can learn from Knox on the hands/concentration front. Improve his routes a bit, and I have high hopes. 

Aw come on, don't you know that people with a positive outlook aren't allowed to post here for at least another couple weeks? This time of year is reserved for the negative Nelly's and haters!  I'm patiently waiting until it's our turn again, but Shaw's objective 2022 Wrap-up post from last week gave me a little hope were getting closer. 

[TheWei44]

14 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Agreed on all that. These WR conversations are always tough because the definitions of "target", "drop", etc are always cloudy.

 

I'm sure there are a few that are "nobody's fault, just good defense" and stuff like that.

 

My point was to illustrate that a good chunk of Gabe's regression was on Josh and Dorsey. Not simply all on Gabe forgetting how to play WR.

 

For all those targets, and for everyone's perception, the fact Davis is credited with only 7 drops should be an eye-opener for a lot of detractors here.

 

Not a great year for Davis, but maybe not as bad as many think.

I'd be curious to see (credited) drops as a percentage of targets or of targets minus catches and see how Gabe compares to other WRs.  That would provide a better comparison across receivers although still flawed (e.g., no controlling for length of pass or difficulty of catch). But I agree with some others that he didn't quite pass eye test and seemingly regressed a bit, even considering various contributing factors.