Devin Singletary not scoring a TD with 34 seconds left

[Rochesterfan]

35 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

I'm not giving them 30 seconds. How many times do I have to say it? I'm giving them 5-10 with no timeouts.

 

So explain what your plan because it makes no sense.  So let’s say he got the 1st down and the Dolphins stopped the clock with 34 seconds left.

 

1st and goal.  What are you play choices? What do you do if stopped are you kicking the FG?  
 

What is the plan because just saying you are scoring a TD with under 10 seconds is not possible with 1 play so we need to understand where this beautiful mind plan is coming from.

 

Two things to remember - 1 - the Dolphins are probably trying to help you score on the first play, but would most likely be trying to hold up the RB and strip the ball on any subsequent plays.

 

2- If you do get stopped - what is you plan to score are you calling your final timeout at 0:02 seconds and kicking the FG?

 

 

Edited December 21, 2022 by Rochesterfan

[Rochesterfan]

@BullBuchanan Glad to see you can complain, but not provide any insight - just a statement - “I would have scored a TD with less than 10 seconds” - Good for you - no idea how or what plan if it failed.

 

If you are just going to make a statement up - then I would of scored 40 more points and it would have been moot.

 

🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️

[Doc]

I've never seen more Sunday (and Monday and Tuesday and Wednesday) Morning Quarterbacking over a play that worked perfectly. 

[mjt328]

What is the best thing that Miami does?

Throwing up a prayer, letting Tyreek Hill/Jaylen Waddle catch it, then watching them outrace the defenders to the endzone.

 

What is the best thing that Buffalo does?

Finds ridiculous ways to lose games they have a 99.999999999% chance of winning, with only seconds left.

 

I completely understand the fear of missing the field goal in that weather, because I was nervous until it went in.  But I really can't blame the coaching staff for leaving zero on the clock for the Dolphins.

[YattaOkasan]

So many pages and i finally can describe why FG. 
 

both options (FG and TD) have the same outcomes (fail=tie, success=win). So consider the likelihood either fails.
 

Missing a FG from that distance (even with the elements) is ~2% to me.  The FG operation has been so good this season and has plenty of opportunity to practice in the elements.

 

For the TD, the fail is giving up a TD when a team has 1 TO and 40 seconds. I think that has a 5% chance of happening considering the dolphins WR and our problems at the catch point. 

 

this analysis shows it was absolutely the right decision. If you disagree you must come up with different probabilities of what would happen. 

[wagon127]

If the bills win the super bowl this way, are people going to still be angry?

[mikemac2001]

2 minutes ago, wagon127 said:

If the bills win the super bowl this way, are people going to still be angry?

Yes I’m angry just thinking about it 

[Orlando Tim]

On 12/19/2022 at 12:08 PM, BullBuchanan said:

It was the wrong move in that situation. I understand he wanted to avoid giving the Dolphins a chance, but there was a superior option. If Devin goes down after the first down, they're in a position now where they can bleed the rest of the time off and try to score a TD on a handoff with a few seconds on the clock.

A field goal in that situation is extremely risky given the snap, hold and kick in slick conditions. Yes, it worked, but that doesn't mean it was a high probability play and I'd hate to see that become the new standard operating procedure in similar situations when a touchdown is available.

Can you explain the " extremely risky" part? If the hold is not perfect still goes through, if the kick motion is not perfect then the ball still is between uprights, if snap is off a bit then it is still good. Where are you getting a 20 yard feild goal is risky. Only if all three are messy does the kick go bad, which is 1% chance, even in weather. 

[pennstate10]

2 hours ago, YattaOkasan said:

So many pages and i finally can describe why FG. 
 

both options (FG and TD) have the same outcomes (fail=tie, success=win). So consider the likelihood either fails.
 

Missing a FG from that distance (even with the elements) is ~2% to me.  The FG operation has been so good this season and has plenty of opportunity to practice in the elements.

 

For the TD, the fail is giving up a TD when a team has 1 TO and 40 seconds. I think that has a 5% chance of happening considering the dolphins WR and our problems at the catch point. 

 

this analysis shows it was absolutely the right decision. If you disagree you must come up with different probabilities of what would happen. 

Your analysis of the situation is correct. 
But the determination that it was the “right” decision is dependent on the percentages assigned. 
 

Where did you get those numbers from?

 

I could just as easily say in a snowstorm there is a 5% chance of missing the kick and a 2% chance of a TD with 40 sec left. Then it’s the wrong decision. 

[SinceThe70s]

12 minutes ago, Orlando Tim said:

Can you explain the " extremely risky" part? If the hold is not perfect still goes through, if the kick motion is not perfect then the ball still is between uprights, if snap is off a bit then it is still good. Where are you getting a 20 yard feild goal is risky. Only if all three are messy does the kick go bad, which is 1% chance, even in weather. 

 

I would never go anywhere near  "extremely risky"   but a botched snap was a risk that the Bills thought was better then defending 6 points (can't assume an XP if you don't assume the FG) with 31 seconds left. In the moment I was in favor of taking the sure points, but I understand why they chose the FG attempt.

[Don Otreply]

On 12/21/2022 at 10:52 AM, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Good post. Can't believe this is still being debated

 

 

The average IQ in America is 100, half the populations IQ is under 100…, kinda says it all…, 

 

[Rochesterfan]

4 minutes ago, pennstate10 said:

Your analysis of the situation is correct. 
But the determination that it was the “right” decision is dependent on the percentages assigned. 
 

Where did you get those numbers from?

 

I could just as easily say in a snowstorm there is a 5% chance of missing the kick and a 2% chance of a TD with 40 sec left. Then it’s the wrong decision. 

 

Agree, but the historical data for FG and XP when they were at the 2 was close to 99% all time including weather - so 1% is about right.

 

For the Dolphins scoring a TD - on the season which is all you can use - they have 10 TDs on drives of 6 plays or less and greater than 50-60 yards.  That is out of just under 140 drives or about 7% on the year.  34 seconds and 1 timeout should be about 6 plays theoretically.  Plus earlier in the game the Dolphins already had a 3 play 72 yard TD against this defense.

 

So based upon historical FG data and current Dolphins drive data - it was significantly better percentage wise to kill time and kick the FG.

 

You never know how things will turn out and the Analytics had it close, but between 0.5 and 1% better kicking the FG, but it also kept the Bills in total control of the outcome and I think that means more than anything to a control freak (not a bad thing) Head Coach.

 

 

[wagon127]

1 hour ago, pennstate10 said:

Your analysis of the situation is correct. 
But the determination that it was the “right” decision is dependent on the percentages assigned. 
 

Where did you get those numbers from?

 

I could just as easily say in a snowstorm there is a 5% chance of missing the kick and a 2% chance of a TD with 40 sec left. Then it’s the wrong decision. 

In the last 5 years, I can name alot times where the bills gave up a score with less then two minutes to go in a half. When is the last time the bills missed a winning field goal less then 25 yards?

 

 Nothing is 100% in football ever, so you go with the next best thing. If bass misses the field goal, there is a 50% chance buffalo has the ball on the next play from scrimmage. Every other scenario involves the bills willingly giving the ball back to Miami.

Edited December 23, 2022 by wagon127

[pennstate10]

2 hours ago, wagon127 said:

In the last 5 years, I can name alot times where the bills gave up a score with less then two minutes to go in a half. When is the last time the bills missed a winning field goal less then 25 yards?

 

 Nothing is 100% in football ever, so you go with the next best thing. If bass misses the field goal, there is a 50% chance buffalo has the ball on the next play from scrimmage. Every other scenario involves the bills willingly giving the ball back to Miami.

Ahh. If you score a TD there is 100% chance that 6 points go on the board for you. That’s the rule. 
 

Lookit, I agree it’s a debatable decision. It seems to me that too many coaches try to overthink situations. 
 

Score points whenever you have a chance is a good general guideline. 

[ExiledInIllinois]

Just now, pennstate10 said:

Ahh. If you score a TD there is 100% chance that 6 points go on the board for you. That’s the rule. 
 

Lookit, I agree it’s a debatable decision. It seems to me that too many coaches try to overthink situations. 
 

Score points whenever you have a chance is a good general guideline. 

All I can say is that guideline really hasn't worked out well for the Bills historically. 

 

I welcome the new change leaving the other team totally helpless and unable to even touch the ball on offense or a kick return. 

[ExiledInIllinois]

Never in doubt! 

Phins were helpless.../thread. 😏 

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, Orlando Tim said:

Can you explain the " extremely risky" part? If the hold is not perfect still goes through, if the kick motion is not perfect then the ball still is between uprights, if snap is off a bit then it is still good. Where are you getting a 20 yard feild goal is risky. Only if all three are messy does the kick go bad, which is 1% chance, even in weather. 

 

Exactly. The kick was so short that even if Bass slips a bit the chances are it is still good. 

1 hour ago, pennstate10 said:

Ahh. If you score a TD there is 100% chance that 6 points go on the board for you. That’s the rule. 
 

Lookit, I agree it’s a debatable decision. It seems to me that too many coaches try to overthink situations. 
 

Score points whenever you have a chance is a good general guideline. 

 

I don't think it is debateable at all. There was a very clear optimum way to play it. The Bills executed that way perfectly. 

[Orlando Tim]

6 hours ago, pennstate10 said:

Ahh. If you score a TD there is 100% chance that 6 points go on the board for you. That’s the rule. 
 

Lookit, I agree it’s a debatable decision. It seems to me that too many coaches try to overthink situations. 
 

Score points whenever you have a chance is a good general guideline. 

Should Nick Chubb have scored his last TD for the Browns against the Jets? Sometimes you need to play the clock as well. I do agree that this one is not 100% like that one but playing the odds is the kick. 

[Doc]

7 hours ago, pennstate10 said:

Ahh. If you score a TD there is 100% chance that 6 points go on the board for you. That’s the rule. 
 

Lookit, I agree it’s a debatable decision. It seems to me that too many coaches try to overthink situations. 
 

Score points whenever you have a chance is a good general guideline. 

 

Why put your STs and defense through more reps and chance for injury, though?  You wind the clock down to 2 seconds and kick what should be an automatic field goal, game over.  And they cleared the field for Bass.  What more could you ask for?

[section122]

So the board has now moved to complaining about decisions that work out too?

 

Cmon man! This is getting ridiculous. 

 

Worried about 3rd and longs

Worried we arent blowing teams out

Worried about the o line

Worried about diggs becoming a diva (seriously hasn't this been put to rest?!)

Complaining about ed oliver

 

That is just the first page!

 

Not to mention the complaining about dorsey and his 2nd most ypg and 4th most ppg offense

 

Or the complaining about frazier and his 9th ranked ypg and 2 ranked ppg defense

 

Or the complaining about mcd and 11-3 afc #1 seed with the highest strength of victory, incredibly difficult schedule, and handling a myriad of injuries.

 

Some of you need to cheer the ***** up and move on from 13 seconds.  Sheesh.

 

[Don Otreply]

2 hours ago, section122 said:

So the board has now moved to complaining about decisions that work out too?

 

Cmon man! This is getting ridiculous. 

 

Worried about 3rd and longs

Worried we arent blowing teams out

Worried about the o line

Worried about diggs becoming a diva (seriously hasn't this been put to rest?!)

Complaining about ed oliver

 

That is just the first page!

 

Not to mention the complaining about dorsey and his 2nd most ypg and 4th most ppg offense

 

Or the complaining about frazier and his 9th ranked ypg and 2 ranked ppg defense

 

Or the complaining about mcd and 11-3 afc #1 seed with the highest strength of victory, incredibly difficult schedule, and handling a myriad of injuries.

 

Some of you need to cheer the ***** up and move on from 13 seconds.  Sheesh.

 

Totally agree, lots of first world whining going on here, these folk will be complaining about how we didn’t win the super bowl the way they wanted it won, its totally mind numbingly absurd.

 

Go Bills!!!!

[TBBills]

On 12/18/2022 at 10:26 AM, billsbackto81 said:

It worked but I thought it was the wrong play. That decision was all about Tyreek Hill taking up real estate in McD's head. This was not Mahomes in Arrowhead in favorable conditions. It's Tua in Buffalo on snow. If you can't stop that from scoring a TD with less than a minute and no timeouts then we'll you're not a championship team. 

 

Of course it's JMHO, glad it worked out.

Worst take ever

[Buckets]

I think what he was thinking about was 13 seconds.

[billsbackto81]

1 hour ago, TBBills said:

Worst take ever

Your opinion and you're entitled. Easy to say now but I'm sure you'd keep it to yourself if the final play had a botched snap, missed kick or fumbled. I mean the weather conditions were perfect, right?

 

Look at the feedback, plenty agreed and disagreed. 

[TBBills]

6 minutes ago, billsbackto81 said:

Your opinion and you're entitled. Easy to say now but I'm sure you'd keep it to yourself if the final play had a botched snap, missed kick or fumbled. I mean the weather conditions were perfect, right?

 

Look at the feedback, plenty agreed and disagreed. 

No that is actually fact. Worst take ever, thanks for still trying to back it up also with nonsense.

[wagon127]

1 hour ago, billsbackto81 said:

Your opinion and you're entitled. Easy to say now but I'm sure you'd keep it to yourself if the final play had a botched snap, missed kick or fumbled. I mean the weather conditions were perfect, right?

 

Look at the feedback, plenty agreed and disagreed. 

No, because there is a 50% chance buffalo gets the ball back on the next kickoff, which would start OT. Your strategy is wilfully give the ball back to miami. If the clock is on your side, you use it. And its worked every single time I can remember buffalo kicking a <25 yard field goal to win a game in the last 10+ years. I can think of a ton of times buffalo left time on the clock after taking the lead with less then two minutes to go and eventually lost that game. So there are a ton of examples that show you are wrong, and mcdermott was right saturday and in the ravens game.

Edited December 23, 2022 by wagon127

[Alphadawg7]

It was absolutely the correct call, and it’s not even close.  
 

First off, everyone calling it icy are just incorrect.  It was not icy conditions, it was fresh snow, big difference.  And the snow can be brushed away, which it was.  His footing there isn’t in any real jeopardy.  
 

Second, giving Dolphins ball back with 34 seconds and the best deep ball receiver in football is a lot riskier than kicking a FG from the 2 yard line.  Statistically, the FG is absolutely the mathematically correct play.  
 

Always better to control the outcome of the game vs giving them their own shot to control the outcome.  
 

The odds we connect on the FG were better than the odds our defense doesn’t allow a TD.  
 

That makes it the correct play.  

[KHAN]

Here is a visual representation of this thread:

 

[billsbackto81]

37 minutes ago, wagon127 said:

No, because there is a 50% chance buffalo gets the ball back on the next kickoff, which would start OT. Your strategy is wilfully give the ball back to miami. If the clock is on your side, you use it. And its worked every single time I can remember buffalo kicking a <25 yard field goal to win a game in the last 10+ years. I can think of a ton of times buffalo left time on the clock after taking the lead with less then two minutes to go and eventually lost that game. So there are a ton of examples that show you are wrong, and mcdermott was right saturday and in the ravens game.

So you're telling me you'd rather take a 50% chance in OT with heavily falling snow rather than taking a 100% TD lead with less than a minute? 

 

Yes, I'm willfully giving the ball back. A TD lead with 34 seconds left and forcing noodle arm Tua with no timeouts to drive Miami most likely 75 yards in heavy snow. What are the odds? And even if they did score a TD which is so highly unlikely, whats worst case? They tie it going into OT and you have your 50/50 scenario anyway.

 

Look, it worked and I'm glad it did. And because it did many will swear it was the right move. 

 

But please don't act like nothing bad couldn't become of it. As a Bills fan we've seen enough over the years scenarios that have gone against us no matter how unlikely.

 

Of course it's JMHO..

[section122]

1 hour ago, billsbackto81 said:

So you're telling me you'd rather take a 50% chance in OT with heavily falling snow rather than taking a 100% TD lead with less than a minute? 

 

Yes, I'm willfully giving the ball back. A TD lead with 34 seconds left and forcing noodle arm Tua with no timeouts to drive Miami most likely 75 yards in heavy snow. What are the odds? And even if they did score a TD which is so highly unlikely, whats worst case? They tie it going into OT and you have your 50/50 scenario anyway.

 

Look, it worked and I'm glad it did. And because it did many will swear it was the right move. 

 

But please don't act like nothing bad couldn't become of it. As a Bills fan we've seen enough over the years scenarios that have gone against us no matter how unlikely.

 

Of course it's JMHO..

No the worst case is they score go for 2 and win.

 

It worked so IT WAS THE RIGHT MOVE. They won the game it was the right move.  

 

Youre last thought is don't pretend nothing could go wrong but you act as if nothing could go wrong with your just score scenario.  We have seen a team score with 13 seconds why even risk it? Your post lays out exactly why the fg was the right choice and you argue against it.

[Punching Bag]

On 12/18/2022 at 12:54 PM, RyanC883 said:

it’s basically  McD saying he does not not trust his D.  

 

Basically what you are saying you do not trust HIS D and so you interpret it that way but since the two of you are not alike you have no actual basis for evaluation.  

[wagon127]

6 hours ago, billsbackto81 said:

So you're telling me you'd rather take a 50% chance in OT with heavily falling snow rather than taking a 100% TD lead with less than a minute? 

 

Yes, I'm willfully giving the ball back. A TD lead with 34 seconds left and forcing noodle arm Tua with no timeouts to drive Miami most likely 75 yards in heavy snow. What are the odds? And even if they did score a TD which is so highly unlikely, whats worst case? They tie it going into OT and you have your 50/50 scenario anyway.

 

Look, it worked and I'm glad it did. And because it did many will swear it was the right move. 

 

But please don't act like nothing bad couldn't become of it. As a Bills fan we've seen enough over the years scenarios that have gone against us no matter how unlikely.

 

Of course it's JMHO..

No, i dont want to go to OT, i want to try a short field goal with no time left, cause i think its the best chance to win. Not cause its 100%, nothing is. But its the next best thing. So much more can go wrong by taking a lead to early, when draining the clock is an option. The best defense in the world, cant compete with leaving zero seconds on the clock.

[Dan]

13 hours ago, section122 said:

So the board has now moved to complaining about decisions that work out too?

 

Cmon man! This is getting ridiculous. 

 

Worried about 3rd and longs

Worried we arent blowing teams out

Worried about the o line

Worried about diggs becoming a diva (seriously hasn't this been put to rest?!)

Complaining about ed oliver

 

That is just the first page!

 

Not to mention the complaining about dorsey and his 2nd most ypg and 4th most ppg offense

 

Or the complaining about frazier and his 9th ranked ypg and 2 ranked ppg defense

 

Or the complaining about mcd and 11-3 afc #1 seed with the highest strength of victory, incredibly difficult schedule, and handling a myriad of injuries.

 

Some of you need to cheer the ***** up and move on from 13 seconds.  Sheesh.

 

Don’t forget we don’t even like Murph calling the games.  There’s not much at all about this team that some folks like. 

[LeGOATski]

How is this discussion still going? Its Saturday.

 

Wait.....it's Saturday, right?

[RyanC883]

12 hours ago, Limeaid said:

 

Basically what you are saying you do not trust HIS D and so you interpret it that way but since the two of you are not alike you have no actual basis for evaluation.  

 

 no, that is the clear implication there.  

[Punching Bag]

16 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

 

 no, that is the clear implication there.  

 

Clear as Mississippi mud.

10 hours ago, Dan said:

Don’t forget we don’t even like Murph calling the games.  There’s not much at all about this team that some folks like. 

 

So like disliking "their team" more than liking it.  Like the Grinch they have a heart two sizes too small.

 

[Dopey]

On 12/23/2022 at 8:45 AM, section122 said:

So the board has now moved to complaining about decisions that work out too?

 

Cmon man! This is getting ridiculous. 

 

Worried about 3rd and longs

Worried we arent blowing teams out

Worried about the o line

Worried about diggs becoming a diva (seriously hasn't this been put to rest?!)

Complaining about ed oliver

 

That is just the first page!

 

Not to mention the complaining about dorsey and his 2nd most ypg and 4th most ppg offense

 

Or the complaining about frazier and his 9th ranked ypg and 2 ranked ppg defense

 

Or the complaining about mcd and 11-3 afc #1 seed with the highest strength of victory, incredibly difficult schedule, and handling a myriad of injuries.

 

Some of you need to cheer the ***** up and move on from 13 seconds.  Sheesh.

 

Yeah! You tell ‘em!! 
Problem is the negative Nancies are a vocal group. And they’re always right! 😉

[JohnNord]

On 12/18/2022 at 10:09 AM, chongli said:

[I am sure this has been mentioned elsewhere (the post game thread is way too long for me to read through), but it might be a topic that deserves its own thread. A lot of people are talking about it, but mods feel free to merge this.]

 

I saw the game but did not listen to the NFL Network call. Apparently, Mark Sanchez was critical of Motor's decision to kneel at the four yard line. I will admit I was miffed when I saw the play. My thinking was it is a tie game in very icy conditions. In such conditions, you take the given TD rather than relying on a last-second FG where anything can go wrong (just look at what happened to Justin Tucker yesterday). Yes, I know that would leave Miami 34 seconds and a time out left for the potential tying (or winning) TD, but it is going to be a very hard thing to do. Yes, the Bills did have KC do it to them twice: 13 seconds and a similar thing against them this season at the end of the first half, and Buffalo did it to Minnesota to end the second half this year too, but I still consider it a fluke thing.

 

Still, I can understand the reasoning the other way. Miami has Tyreek and Jaylen, and a defender could just as well slip against them and give up the tying (or winning) TD. And a close FG, even in these situations, is still a relative gimme.

 

It's a tough call, and I will have to side with McD's judgment. He said in the article he has coached his team for this situation, calling it "no mas". Devin, to this credit, knew what to do!

 

In the comments to the article below, almost all of the people were against Buffalo not coring the TD in a tie game in icy conditions, saying the field goal was not a given (although the comments voting was about even). The twitter comments were a little more positive. They said if you have the lead, then sure, but take the points in a tie game in such conditions. They also said if Bass-o-matic missed the FG and the Dolphins went on to win in OT, people would be angry at Motor for costing us the game and first place in the AFC.

 

 

I had absolutely no problem with the decision.  He did the same thing against Baltimore and it was the smart play.  
 

If you are going to go on the premise that Bass could easily slip on the FG attempt..ha also could’ve slipped on the kickoff attempt as could any other players on the field.  
 

While I agree that scoring a TD with :34 seconds would be near impossible for Miami, we’ve seen teams hit long plays on the defense because Hamlin was out of position.
 

The Bills did the right thing. 

[djp14150]

8 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

I had absolutely no problem with the decision.  He did the same thing against Baltimore and it was the smart play.  
 

If you are going to go on the premise that Bass could easily slip on the FG attempt..ha also could’ve slipped on the kickoff attempt as could any other players on the field.  
 

While I agree that scoring a TD with :34 seconds would be near impossible for Miami, we’ve seen teams hit long plays on the defense because Hamlin was out of position.
 

The Bills did the right thing. 

 

sure the FG could be blocked and returned.

if he scored when they wanted him to, Miami would have had 2 TO snd about 30 seconds to score a TD. If thry got a TD they’d go for the W on a 2.

 

FG was the safer play.  It was a short kick already.  The snow wasn’t fully covering the field likr i he was kicking in 6 inches on the field

[pennstate10]

Hey, just curious. 
after seeing missed 35 and 38 yd kicks this week, is everyone absolutely  sure that not taking a sure TD was the right move?

 

My opinion is that it was a close decision, but that McD should have taken the TD.  FG, especially in bad weather, might be 90+%, but it’s never 100%