Devin Singletary not scoring a TD with 34 seconds left

[KDIGGZ]

3 minutes ago, MRW said:

 

First, it was not a blizzard. Second, with Hill and Waddle on the other side there is no way I want to give them a shot. One busted coverage or poor tackle and it's off to the races.

That's nice. Statistically you are wrong. Are you smarter than math? The chances of giving up a 80 yard TD in 34 seconds against noodle arm Tua is close to 0%, probably as high as 2%. The chances of making any FG of that length, roughly extra point distance, is around 93% on a good day so it's already a toss up in which option you choose, and then you add the slippery and harder ball and it makes the snap, hold, and kick much more difficult. It's really not close when you look at the analytics 

[gtw3]

1 minute ago, pennstate10 said:

Let’s be clear, I doubt this was a thought that just popped into Singletarys head during the run. Given that it was an iffy decision, I’m sure that MCD said don’t score, no matter what. They’re not going to leave that decision to a 3th year RB. 
 

For the record, I thought it was a bad decision. You play to win the game. I saw psu lose a game against bama in exactly this way. Kicker missed from the 5 yd line as time ran out. 
 

and this game had a wintry mix. A gutsy, but unwise call in my opinion. 

Maybe.  Maybe not.  He is still a player, in a contract year (i believe?) who willingly chose to not tack on a TD, that practically no one would have blamed him for getting, in order to completely drain the clock and set us up with a chip shot field goal for the win or overtime (baring some crazy block and return scenario). 

 

In the scenario you presented, it seems that Penn State was losing at the time of that play.  Our game was tied so it isn't exactly an apples for apples example.

 

I understand where you are coming from but like I said, everything else is an endless stream of what-ifs.

[RyanC883]

1 minute ago, MRW said:

 

It really comes down to your evaluation of the odds of a catastrophe. The thing that I keep coming back to is that we saw - multiple times - blown coverages and shoddy tackling leading to big plays/TDs for the Dolphins. Giving them the ball with 35-40 seconds left and a timeout is just asking to be beaten (IMO).

 

agreed.  McD was right not to trust the D, but it leads to questions as to why we keep Frazier if we can’t trust the D to hold a TD lead with 34 seconds. 

[Boatdrinks]

13 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

What's easier to do? Make a FG in a blizzard or stop a team from going 80 yards in 34 seconds? You only get 1 shot at the FG and it has to be the perfect snap, perfect hold, perfect kick. Too many moving parts. You can screw up multiple times in 34 seconds and still not allow a TD

Disagree. It wasn’t exactly a blizzard- they took that into account , and you can screw up once and Hill is in the end zone. Maybe McDaniel goes for the win with a 2 pt conversion in that situation as the weather was worsening. No reason at all to choose that option if you’re the Bills. Executing the kick is mostly about your players ; playing D has a lot to do with theirs- including Hill. 

[pennstate10]

1 minute ago, gtw3 said:

Maybe.  Maybe not.  He is still a player, in a contract year (i believe?) who willingly chose to not tack on a TD, that practically no one would have blamed him for getting, in order to completely drain the clock and set us up with a chip shot field goal for the win or overtime (baring some crazy block and return scenario). 

 

In the scenario you presented, it seems that Penn State was losing at the time of that play.  Our game was tied so it isn't exactly an apples for apples example.

 

I understand where you are coming from but like I said, everything else is an endless stream of what-ifs.

Let’s put it this way. 

 

If bills coaching staff didn’t give singeltary explicit instructions to score or not score, they’re idiots.  
 

That’s like giving your punter the option to run or punt when the game is on the line in your own end. 
 

Players shouldn’t be making that decision, coaching staff should. 
 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

There was no guarantee he was getting in the end zone and no guarantee the dolphins wouldn’t have stripped the football either.  Assuming they were confident in the fg hold/kick in the snow it was probably the right call 

[RJ (not THAT RJ)]

6 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

it’s basically  McD saying he does not not trust his D.  

Sure, Jan. 

[gtw3]

Just now, pennstate10 said:

Let’s put it this way. 

 

If bills coaching staff didn’t give singeltary explicit instructions to score or not score, they’re idiots.  
 

That’s like giving your punter the option to run or punt when the game is on the line in your own end. 
 

Players shouldn’t be making that decision, coaching staff should. 
 

I would hope that that is the case. (coaches giving explicit directions)

[KHAN]

27 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

What's easier to do? Make a FG in a blizzard or stop a team from going 80 yards in 34 seconds? You only get 1 shot at the FG and it has to be the perfect snap, perfect hold, perfect kick. Too many moving parts. You can screw up multiple times in 34 seconds and still not allow a TD

Good grief. It wasn't a blizzard. The winds weren't bad, and there was barely any snow on the field. There was none where he kicked because the players cleaned it off.

 

Blizzard, LOL

Edited December 18, 2022 by KHAN

[MRW]

8 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

That's nice. Statistically you are wrong. Are you smarter than math? The chances of giving up a 80 yard TD in 34 seconds against noodle arm Tua is close to 0%, probably as high as 2%. The chances of making any FG of that length, roughly extra point distance, is around 93% on a good day so it's already a toss up in which option you choose, and then you add the slippery and harder ball and it makes the snap, hold, and kick much more difficult. It's really not close when you look at the analytics 

 

Do you have a source for that 93% figure? Looking at the top kickers in the league (and I would count Bass among them) that looks way too high.

 

As far as the chance of the Dolphins completing a long pass, it's not about Tua. At all. After watching Waddle and Mostert both burn the defense with 60-yard+ plays, I don't know where your confidence in that 0% number is coming from either.

[WideNine]

2 hours ago, billsbackto81 said:

It worked but I thought it was the wrong play. That decision was all about Tyreek Hill taking up real estate in McD's head. This was not Mahomes in Arrowhead in favorable conditions. It's Tua in Buffalo on snow. If you can't stop that from scoring a TD with less than a minute and no timeouts then we'll you're not a championship team. 

 

Of course it's JMHO, glad it worked out.

 

I do think Hill and the KC 13 seconds was looming in the coaching staff's head.

 

Not a vote of confidence in your D,  but I can see how it drove that decision.

 

Not saying I agreed with it.

 

 

[RJ (not THAT RJ)]

2 minutes ago, WideNine said:

 

I do think Hill and the KC 13 seconds was looming in the coaching staff's head.

 

Not a vote of confidence in your D,  but I can see how it drove that decision.

 

Not saying I agreed with it.

 

 

 

Does going into victory formation or running down the clock demonstrate lack of faith in your defense? Why not just punt to the other team and let the D stop them? Do you people listen to yourselves?

[ChasBB]

I'm okay with Singletary going down there.  Yes, you'd hope the Bills' D could finish them off had Singletary scored, but so many things can happen.  Maybe Tua tosses a long ball and there's a PI call setting Miami up at the Bills' 1-yd line for an easy score or something stupid like that.  I think taking the clock down to mere seconds and putting Miami away with a FG was the right decision.  If you don't have to let the opponent touch the ball again, then don't!  Go Bills!!!

[K-9]

3 hours ago, chongli said:

[I am sure this has been mentioned elsewhere (the post game thread is way too long for me to read through), but it might be a topic that deserves its own thread. A lot of people are talking about it, but mods feel free to merge this.]

 

I saw the game but did not listen to the NFL Network call. Apparently, Mark Sanchez was critical of Motor's decision to kneel at the four yard line. I will admit I was miffed when I saw the play. My thinking was it is a tie game in very icy conditions. In such conditions, you take the given TD rather than relying on a last-second FG where anything can go wrong (just look at what happened to Justin Tucker yesterday). Yes, I know that would leave Miami 34 seconds and a time out left for the potential tying (or winning) TD, but it is going to be a very hard thing to do. Yes, the Bills did have KC do it to them twice: 13 seconds and a similar thing against them this season at the end of the first half, and Buffalo did it to Minnesota to end the second half this year too, but I still consider it a fluke thing.

 

Still, I can understand the reasoning the other way. Miami has Tyreek and Jaylen, and a defender could just as well slip against them and give up the tying (or winning) TD. And a close FG, even in these situations, is still a relative gimme.

 

It's a tough call, and I will have to side with McD's judgment. He said in the article he has coached his team for this situation, calling it "no mas". Devin, to this credit, knew what to do!

 

In the comments to the article below, almost all of the people were against Buffalo not coring the TD in a tie game in icy conditions, saying the field goal was not a given (although the comments voting was about even). The twitter comments were a little more positive. They said if you have the lead, then sure, but take the points in a tie game in such conditions. They also said if Bass-o-matic missed the FG and the Dolphins went on to win in OT, people would be angry at Motor for costing us the game and first place in the AFC.

 

 

Anyone criticizing Motor for that decision in that game situation, either didn’t see the latest example of why you do what Motor did when Nick Chubb screwed the pooch vs the Jets this season or they have ZERO understanding of game management. In that game situation, Motor did exactly what was called for. Textbook. And I respect that he countered every instinct in his body to do it because RBs are conditioned to get the ball over the goal line and score. 

[WideNine]

1 minute ago, RJ (not THAT RJ) said:

 

Does going into victory formation or running down the clock demonstrate lack of faith in your defense? Why not just punt to the other team and let the D stop them? Do you people listen to yourselves?

 

Some could ask the same question about listening to you, we were tied at the time and a kick is not a given.

 

Folks are making a good argument that you take the points.

 

So that begs the question why did they not take the points, but instead chose to lie down at the one yard line and risk a kick missing and going  into OT?

 

It's a legit question.

 

 

 

 

 

[Maine-iac]

You could say Allen shouldn't have let the clock run out before halftime it could have cost us the game but if he doesn't there's no TD.  Singletary assured Miami didn't get another possession just like he was coached.  If ifs and buts were candy and nuts it would be Christmas every day.

[RJ (not THAT RJ)]

1 minute ago, WideNine said:

 

Some could ask the same question about listening to you, we were tied at the time and a kick is not a given.

 

Folks are making a good argument that you take the points.

 

So that begs the question why did they not take the points, but instead chose to lie down at the one yard line and risk a kick missing and going  into OT?

 

It's a legit question.

 

 

 

 

 

 

It is a legit question. It is not a legit statement to say that the decision to play for the kick shows lack of faith in the defense. That’s just people looking to carp about McD. 

[Since1981]

It was a guaranteed 6 pts with :30 with snow/Tua. I would have taken them. 

[djp14150]

3 hours ago, chongli said:

[I am sure this has been mentioned elsewhere (the post game thread is way too long for me to read through), but it might be a topic that deserves its own thread. A lot of people are talking about it, but mods feel free to merge this.]

 

I saw the game but did not listen to the NFL Network call. Apparently, Mark Sanchez was critical of Motor's decision to kneel at the four yard line. I will admit I was miffed when I saw the play. My thinking was it is a tie game in very icy conditions. In such conditions, you take the given TD rather than relying on a last-second FG where anything can go wrong (just look at what happened to Justin Tucker yesterday). Yes, I know that would leave Miami 34 seconds and a time out left for the potential tying (or winning) TD, but it is going to be a very hard thing to do. Yes, the Bills did have KC do it to them twice: 13 seconds and a similar thing against them this season at the end of the first half, and Buffalo did it to Minnesota to end the second half this year too, but I still consider it a fluke thing.

 

Still, I can understand the reasoning the other way. Miami has Tyreek and Jaylen, and a defender could just as well slip against them and give up the tying (or winning) TD. And a close FG, even in these situations, is still a relative gimme.

 

It's a tough call, and I will have to side with McD's judgment. He said in the article he has coached his team for this situation, calling it "no mas". Devin, to this credit, knew what to do!

 

In the comments to the article below, almost all of the people were against Buffalo not coring the TD in a tie game in icy conditions, saying the field goal was not a given (although the comments voting was about even). The twitter comments were a little more positive. They said if you have the lead, then sure, but take the points in a tie game in such conditions. They also said if Bass-o-matic missed the FG and the Dolphins went on to win in OT, people would be angry at Motor for costing us the game and first place in the AFC.

 

 

 

OTs simp,e…thry just needed a FZG to win or go to OT.

 

scoring a TD then giving them a chance to score snd either tie, or go for 2 and win.

 

you play the short FZG route snd go down.

 

i guess the butt fumble has reared its ugly headed….

[WideNine]

1 minute ago, Maine-iac said:

You could say Allen shouldn't have let the clock run out before halftime it could have cost us the game but if he doesn't there's no TD.  Singletary assured Miami didn't get another possession just like he was coached.  If ifs and buts were candy and nuts it would be Christmas every day.

 

Even Allen admitted that he was bailed out and knew he was supposed to throw that ball quickly or throw it away to allow a kick before the half.

 

I think most of the negatives coming from former QB game commentators directed at Allen that sound like sour grapes is that Allen, more often than not, gets away with breaking all the rules.

 

Rules they could never have gotten away with breaking because Allen is a freak of nature.