Allen's final throw, bad decision or bad pass?

[BananaB]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

Here's Patrick Peterson breaking it down:

 

We have a big problem if opposing defenses know exactly what route we're going to run and where Allen will throw the ball based on the coverage.

 

He basically says that Davis only runs a couple routes and pretty much always runs inside post in the red zone. That makes it way too easy for a veteran DB to make a play on the ball. Dorsey needs to add some red zone wrinkles, fast. We've been figured out.

What a clown. He made a play on a very poorly thrown ball or a bad miscommunication between QB and WR and he’s making it out like he’s genius. I think we can all agree if Gabe cuts in Peterson is beat, if Allen throws deeper Peterson is beat. Guy got lucky

 

If he was banking on Gabe making the wrong read I’d have to say he is a genius though. 

Edited November 15, 2022 by BananaB

[HappyDays]

12 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

 

do you think this is a Bills thing? what do you think film study is all about?

 

this is literally what football is.

 

Most #2 WRs don't have just a couple routes that defenses can key in on. Most top tier offenses have wrinkles they put into their red zone play calls. It's hard enough to make plays happen in the compressed area of the field without defenses also knowing exactly what you want to do. Considering how poor our red zone offense has been this year (currently 21st in red zone TD% with 52.94%) I'm not going to chalk it up to just regular film study. It's too predictable and uncreative right now.

[Shaw66]

58 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

 

do you think this is a Bills thing? what do you think film study is all about?

 

this is literally what football is.

Right.  Every team has tendencies, and good opponents know hat those tendencies are.  One of the things that has made Andy Reid a success is that he always seems to have some plays that go against the tendencies.

 

The problem was not that Patrick Peterson knew that the Bills like going to Davis over the middle in the end zone.  The problem was that Allen didn't know, or forgot, that Peterson would know that.  That's a problem with Allen and with Dorsey.  The Seahawks lost the Super Bowl to the Patriots because they didn't seem to understand that the Patriots would know they liked that little slant pass on the goal line.  

 

Ultimately, it's McDermott's problem.  His job is to be sure the coaches and players are doing their jobs.   And right now, his coaches and players aren't getting it done, which means McDermott's not getting it done. 

[Draconator]

Right play, right call, bad execution. 

[PayDaBill$]

How do you explain the other throws basically right to defenders?

 

He hasn’t been the same since the 2nd half of the GB game.  Not sure what’s up with him but there’s something not right. He doesn’t look like the same player we’ve all seen!

Edited November 15, 2022 by PayDaBill$

[zow2]

Allen is trying to do too much.  plain and simple. There was no reason to throw that ball into the endzone in the middle of the field in OT.  Too risky.  or throwing passes into crowds of players in the red zone. There’s situations where ball security is the most important thing. 

[SoCal Deek]

19 minutes ago, Draconator said:

Right play, right call, bad execution. 

You could say that about virtually every play that doesn’t work. 

[BananaB]

18 minutes ago, PayDaBill$ said:

How do you explain the other throws basically right to defenders?

 

He hasn’t been the same since the 2nd half of the GB game.  Not sure what’s up with him but there’s something not right. He doesn’t look like the same player we’ve all seen!

He completed 29 passes on Sunday and had 3 drops with about 3 passes he threw in the dirt. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

26 minutes ago, PayDaBill$ said:

How do you explain the other throws basically right to defenders?

 

He hasn’t been the same since the 2nd half of the GB game.  Not sure what’s up with him but there’s something not right. He doesn’t look like the same player we’ve all seen!

He's been reckless with the ball all year.  It's not just the last few games.  He has streaks of being the best QB in the league by far and then puts the ball in harms way seemingly out of nowhere.  He's been especially careless inside the 20's which kills you either way.  This is worse than his fumbling earlier in his career, but just as he cleaned that up, I suspect he will clean up the INTs too.  He just needs a couple of 225 yard 1 TD 0 INT games.  Less hero ball. 

[B-Large]

12 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

Found this on Twitter today, it's the final throw of the game from Allen's perspective.  

 

The decision looked good, the pass looked late and off target. 

 

 

 

Now that I have watched that clip 75 times, its almost like the linebacker making this way across the field from left to right may have obscured how close Peterson was in pursuit.  It makes sense based on where Josh throws that ball.  I'm just having a hard time believing Josh is that careless.  I think the LB coming over distracted him just enough.  We can see it clear as day, but from Josh's POV on the field I think this is the case.  Just lucky LB placement?

 

Ah, just so hard to watch!

Edited November 15, 2022 by B-Large

[Royale with Cheese]

1 hour ago, Scott7975 said:

 

At the time Josh Allen started that throw, Singletary wasnt even past the LoS yet because he helped on a block.

 

 

 

 

But as you can see, he has a clean pocket.  He didn't need to rush the throw.  He should know Singletary should leak out eventually.

 

His throw is a throw you make if there's like 20 seconds left to play and no timeouts.  We had time.

[Golden]

2 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

But as you can see, he has a clean pocket.  He didn't need to rush the throw.  He should know Singletary should leak out eventually.

 

His throw is a throw you make if there's like 20 seconds left to play and no timeouts.  We had time.

Nice post & well said 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

4 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

The ball that hit Knox in the hands in the end zone was ridiculously over aggressive?

It wasn’t a bad ball but just combined with what seemed to be a general thought process of taking end zone shots on every down seems over aggressive. I guess in hindsight is what I’m saying.

 

Seemed like that was the plan.

[CoudyBills]

9 hours ago, HoofHearted said:

It’s not backyard ball. You can’t just make stuff up on the fly. The concept was double post. Gabe ran a post. It’s okay to admit Josh threw a bad ball.

Receivers make adjustments on routes all the time that may or may not be exactly what is called.  It only works if the qb knows its coming based on both players reading the same thing.  

[Scott7975]

35 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

But as you can see, he has a clean pocket.  He didn't need to rush the throw.  He should know Singletary should leak out eventually.

 

His throw is a throw you make if there's like 20 seconds left to play and no timeouts.  We had time.

 

Allen made a bad throw and possibly a bad decision but football doesnt work like that.  He goes through reads and there are windows to throw.  He saw something and threw it.  QBs dont just wait around. These are split second decisions they are making because thats all they have.

Edited November 15, 2022 by Scott7975

[Einstein]

That pass so underthrown that it has me wondering whether the UCL is bothering him more than they’re letting on.

 

Carson Palmer said that with his UCL injury, 2 of every 3 passes were normal, but that 3rd pass, it was like it was shot out of the sky - absolutely no velocity on it.

 

That play reminded me of Palmers comments. That pass was not even close to being completed. He underthew that by a good 5 yards. 

[HoofHearted]

43 minutes ago, CoudyBills said:

Receivers make adjustments on routes all the time that may or may not be exactly what is called.  It only works if the qb knows its coming based on both players reading the same thing.  

 

Sure, choice routes. Read one defender and the route adjusts based on what they do. There's nothing on the double post that would adjust that route. Choice routes are designed to take advantage of leverages and cushions and put you in the best possible position based on what the defense is doing. Vikings were playing split coverage - Quarters to the boundary and Two to the field. Safety going with the Post by #2 clears the window for the Post by #1 behind it with the corner playing outside leverage. There is nothing that should change Davis from running his Post there.

[Simon]

11 hours ago, DaggersEOD said:

To me, this was a telegraphed play by the Bills that the Vikes were expecting and ready for. They knew this pass was coming. 
 

IMO the play call was the problem and not going to the 2nd/3rd reads sealed the deal. 

 

If I remember right, they had run a really similar follow concept on the failed 4th and 2 not that long ago.

Similar double clutch, similar late(ish) ball; the reason it probably wasn't picked was because it was low and short of the goalline.

[HoofHearted]

5 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

It's both a bad throw and a bad decision. Josh is trowing directly into the strength of what appears to be Cover 4. Could he make it? Sure, but this is a game about percentages and this defense is designed specifically to make this a low percentage throw. Against lesser QBs it would be practically impossible, but because Josh is Josh he says ***** you and throws it anyway. This time even he's not good enough to beat the stacked odds against him.

Cover 4 opens up the underneath routes which he had in a wide open Singletary.

This is not new behavior from Josh. He's done it his whole career and I posted a video from Brett Kollman about how the Dolphins figured him our last year, but just didn't have the talent to beat him. Now they do and apparently a lot of the league has the same playbook. If Josh doesn't adapt, this will keep happening. He can't fix it with better throws. He has to put his ego aside and take what the defense gives. It's then up to Dorsey to figure out ways to get Josh what he wants by countering the defense.

 

Double Post is a Quarters beater. They had the perfect concept dialed up for the coverage they got. Josh just threw a dud.

[Eastport bills]

It was obviously both a bad decision and bad throw, but what type of call was that with crossers running into a collapsing net of defenders. Naturally you’re directing an aggressive young QB into a high risk, low percentage game destroying throw. Why not throw an underneath, high percentage throw and keep moving the ball towards the goal line until they stop it. The OC has to protect Josh from himself.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

Go dance with Kirk on the plane.  Enjoy the win. 
 

You’re stuck with Kirk Cousins come Playoff time.

 

Edited November 15, 2022 by Straight Hucklebuck

[Einstein]

8 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

 

Double Post is a Quarters beater. They had the perfect concept dialed up for the coverage they got. Josh just threw a dud.

 

Yeah the play call was not the problem on that particular play.

[Buftex]

Should have thrown it to wide open Singletary, who would have gotten at least 8-12 yards (on 2nd & 10), if he hadn't been able to take it all the way. Bad decision.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

10 hours ago, HoofHearted said:

I know based on the other routes in the concept. Football is not complicated.

Plus Dorsey said exactly that in his Monday press conference - double post. 

17 minutes ago, Buftex said:

Should have thrown it to wide open Singletary, who would have gotten at least 8-12 yards (on 2nd & 10), if he hadn't been able to take it all the way. Bad decision.

No he wouldn’t have. 
 

There is a Minnesota LB about 10 yards off, and another corner 4 yards behind him.

 

Singletary gets 5-6 yards there.

[T master]

Earlier in the year Josh was taking what the Defense gave him i think on that one & some others especially when he gets behind he tries to go for the big one to much instead of taking whats there & letting his play makers do the rest .

 

Sure Josh is our number 1 play maker & it all starts with him but he tries to do too much some times he just needs to settle back down it will come back to him !! 

[PauleeeWalnuts]

Both 

[Billsforumsucks]

https://www.change.org/p/moms-for-josh-allen-because-sometimes-you-just-need-a-mom-to-tell-you-it-s-going-to-be-ok/psf/share?source_location=combo_psf&psf_variant=combo&share_intent=1

 

Sign the petition for Josh and his Mom!

[reddogblitz]

It was the throw.  Just like it was the throw in the other pick and the throw when he missed Diggs in the EZ and others.  His accuracy was off due to his sore arm I suspect.

 

He made a lot of good throws but a lot more bad ones than usual.

 

I have not heard anyone mention this and maybe I'm wrong, but it looked to me his throwing motion was even different than usual.

Edited November 16, 2022 by reddogblitz

[Buftex]

27 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Plus Dorsey said exactly that in his Monday press conference - double post. 

No he wouldn’t have. 
 

There is a Minnesota LB about 10 yards off, and another corner 4 yards behind him.

 

Singletary gets 5-6 yards there.

Okay...i'll take 3rd & 5 or 3rd & 4 , over throwing into traffic when it really wasn't necessary.  It wasn't 4th down

[Golden]

2 hours ago, reddogblitz said:

It was the throw.  Just like it was the throw in the other pick and the throw when he missed Diggs in the EZ and others.  His accuracy was off due to his sore arm I suspect.

 

He made a lot of good throws but a lot more bad ones than usual.

 

I have not heard anyone mention this and maybe I'm wrong, but it looked to me his throwing motion was even different than usual.

Plus, I would believe that playing so soon after the injury was in his head.  Totally understandable 

[reddogblitz]

27 minutes ago, Golden said:

Plus, I would believe that playing so soon after the injury was in his head.  Totally understandable 

 

It absolutely was which is why he was sliding earlier in the game on runs.  

[Scott7975]

18 hours ago, Buftex said:

Should have thrown it to wide open Singletary, who would have gotten at least 8-12 yards (on 2nd & 10), if he hadn't been able to take it all the way. Bad decision.

 

At the time Josh made the decision to throw and started to #### his arm, Singletary was still blocking another player.  People see one still shot and one guy claim "Look Singletary was wide open!!!" and dont bother to look at the actual play.  Watch the entire play, not just some guys still shot trying to make himself look like a genius.

[BullBuchanan]

19 hours ago, HoofHearted said:

 

Double Post is a Quarters beater. They had the perfect concept dialed up for the coverage they got. Josh just threw a dud.

Not on that route. Look at the play. In order to hit Davis on target Josh need to throw at exactly when the video is at 0:03. He needs to float the ball over the LB but with enough velocity that it doesn't get picked by the safety int he middle of the field and low enough that Davis can make a play on it. It's a near impossible throw. I can't screenshot it because of the website size limitations, but the window is minuscule between #22 & #7 .
 

 

[HoofHearted]

Just now, BullBuchanan said:

Not on that route. Look at the play. In order to hit Davis on target Josh need to throw at exactly when the video is at 0:03. He needs to float the ball over the LB but with enough velocity that it doesn't get picked by the safety int he middle of the field and low enough that Davis can make a play on it. It's a near impossible throw. I can't screenshot it because of the website size limitations, but the window is minuscule between #22 & #7 .
 

 

Oh, I meant schematically. Double Post is a Quarters beater. You made a comment in your post that the defense the Vikings called was perfect to stop the play (or something along those lines). They defended it well and Allen should have 100% checked it down.

[Just in Atlanta]

So what we're saying is there was a receiver in the vicinity of the throw? Wow! Josh gets an ice cream cone with sprinkles.

It was a needlessly reckless bad throw and decision.

 

It happens. Even to the best. 

 

 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Scott7975 said:

 

At the time Josh made the decision to throw and started to #### his arm, Singletary was still blocking another player.  People see one still shot and one guy claim "Look Singletary was wide open!!!" and dont bother to look at the actual play.  Watch the entire play, not just some guys still shot trying to make himself look like a genius.

A quarterback who understands the play design understands that Singletary will release late, because the qb knows Singletary will block first.  Josh had good protection, so he had time to see both that the pass defenders had dropped out of the area where Singletary would go.  A qb doing his job in that situation will wait for Singletary to clear and give him the ball.  

[ColoradoBills]

22 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

 

Ultimately, it's McDermott's problem.  His job is to be sure the coaches and players are doing their jobs.   And right now, his coaches and players aren't getting it done, which means McDermott's not getting it done. 

 

Ultimately it is on McDermott.  The question I have is, has McDermott already addressed this to Dorsey and Allen and nothing has changed.

 

Dorsey has been described as a "highly intensive" person and we know that Josh can get that way too.  I find it hard to believe that

McDermott, who tends to be a little conservative, hasn't given his input.

 

The play in question is only one example of how I'm yelling at my TV for them to take what the D is giving.  I seem to be saying that a lot

in the last number of games.

 

[MJS]

It was still a bad decision. He didn't need to try to thread the needle there.

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

A quarterback who understands the play design understands that Singletary will release late, because the qb knows Singletary will block first.  Josh had good protection, so he had time to see both that the pass defenders had dropped out of the area where Singletary would go.  A qb doing his job in that situation will wait for Singletary to clear and give him the ball.  

 

Josh thought he had a TD.  If he thinks he has a TD he is going to throw it.  Windows are small.  Decisions and actions are split second. If you watch the play from either the redzone look or the behind Josh look the play was actually there.  There was a hole in the endzone and Davis had a step on the defender.  Josh threw the ball behind which allowed the INT to happen.  It was just a bad throw.  That is all.

Edited November 16, 2022 by Scott7975

[Shaw66]

15 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Josh thought he had a TD.  If he thinks he has a TD he is going to throw it.  Windows are small.  Decisions and actions are split second. If you watch the play from either the redzone look or the behind Josh look the play was actually there.  There was a hole in the endzone and Davis had a step on the defender.  Josh threw the ball behind which allowed the INT to happen.  It was just a bad throw.  That is all.

No, that is not all.  It's situational football.  The downside of risking a bad throw is MUCH bigger in overtime than in  the second quarter.  Josh has to know the difference and make a better decision.