How badly did we need that victory against KC? Very, given KC’s remaining schedule.

[dollars 2 donuts]

Given that I have lost all respect for the NFC West, realized that the AFC West was mostly just ether (Wilson? Adams a Raider? Yeah, ok) and their inter conference play against the AFC South (fine as I’ve never respected that division, even when we lose to them), it looks like the Chiefs only have two “difficult” games left on their schedule (Chargers and Cincy).
 

@Niners

Titans

Jags

@Chargers

Rams

@Bengals

@Broncos

@Texans

Seahawks

Broncos

@Raiders

I fully expect the Bills to at least go 14-3, but honestly, they might have to as I am not 100% sure 13-4 gets it done.  Recent history shows it is not unusual for the Chiefs to go on runs.  
 

Go Bills.

 

edit: side note, tremendous stroke of the schedule that the defending afc champions get both KC and the Bills at home.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 18, 2022 by dollars 2 donuts

[RichRiderBills]

Seems like an overreaction. Really disagree...I think it's rougher than ours.

 

@ Niners is a tough game. 

 

Raiders nearly beat them at home. @ Broncos no joke. 

 

Titans are tough, Jags giving people fits. 

 

Rams are the SB champs and match up well. Could have OBJ by then. Even hags and Texans are not easy outs.

 

 

[Billsfan1972]

I see a lot of hard games on their schedule.  KC lost to Indy & squeaked by the Raiders & Chargers.  This is sort of an upside down season where lot's can happen.

 

Never has "Any Given Sunday" been more apropos.  

 

All of a sudden NE looks better as do the Jets.  GB you think has to be better & Minn keeps winning.

 

 

[BillsVet]

For perspective, Buffalo defeated KC in Week 5 to go 4-1 and dropping KC to 2-3.  The Bills went 7-5 the rest of the way compared to the Cheaps' 10-2 finish.

 

A lot can happen over the course of a season and while that is a great win, it's only a +1 advantage in overall record and gives them the head to head advantage.

 

 Can't have another mid-season swoon like they did last year because the Cheaps will rebound. 

[Greg S]

Playing at SF won't be easy. Divisional games are usually hard fought. Chiefs are very good but they will suffer some losses with that schedule. 

[HOUSE]

If Travis Kelse is injured,  the Chiefs could end up in last place

[LDD]

1 minute ago, HOUSE said:

If Travis Kelse is injured,  the Chiefs could end up in last place

I very much believe this.  Every elite QB needs a guy to depend on, with Hill gone, if Kelce gets dinged Mahomes won't have that receiver. 

[Greg S]

2 minutes ago, LDD said:

I very much believe this.  Every elite QB needs a guy to depend on, with Hill gone, if Kelce gets dinged Mahomes won't have that receiver. 

 

We are seeing that now with Rodgers.

[HOUSE]

1 minute ago, LDD said:

I very much believe this.  Every elite QB needs a guy to depend on, with Hill gone, if Kelce gets dinged Mahomes won't have that receiver. 

I am not very impressed with Mahomes anymore. The guy can be a bone head at times...

[Virgil]

I wouldn't underestimate their divisional games.  Those teams always play them close

[zow2]

In the NFL, it's not necessarily WHO you play, but when you play them.  Unfortunately the 49ers are really hurting between guys sent to IR and players who have been hurt the past couple weeks and unlikely to play vs KC.  They are missing like 11 starters.  The Chiefs won't be playing the best version of San Fran.

[HOUSE]

Just now, Bandito said:

You are a doctor. Help him out!

I lost my license for excessive use of pain killers. Then I rode off on my Harley....

[dollars 2 donuts]

48 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I see a lot of hard games on their schedule.  KC lost to Indy & squeaked by the Raiders & Chargers.  This is sort of an upside down season where lot's can happen.

 

Never has "Any Given Sunday" been more apropos.  

 

All of a sudden NE looks better as do the Jets.  GB you think has to be better & Minn keeps winning.

 

 

 

36 minutes ago, Greg S said:

Playing at SF won't be easy. Divisional games are usually hard fought. Chiefs are very good but they will suffer some losses with that schedule. 

 

13 minutes ago, Virgil said:

I wouldn't underestimate their divisional games.  Those teams always play them close

 

much truth in all of what you said, but also recent history shows the chiefs starting rough and finishing strong. I absolutely don’t think 10-1 is outside the realm of possibility by them (as noted earlier in the thread by @BillsVet). I think niners are good, but suspect and all those teams in the nfc west are middling right now. 
 

let’s put it this way, if you think the chiefs are the next best team to the bills and you had that schedule how worried would you be?

 

 

Edited October 18, 2022 by dollars 2 donuts

[Simon Says]

Any given Sunday....or Monday night...or Thursday night...

[RiotAct]

7 minutes ago, Herb Nightly said:

Any given Sunday....or Monday night...or Thursday night...

or Saturday night

[HOUSE]

5 minutes ago, Herb Nightly said:

Any given Sunday....or Monday night...or Thursday night...

On any network, ESPN+, Amazon, Paramount +, NFL network...

[What a Tuel]

9 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

much truth in all of what you said, but also recent history shows the chiefs starting rough and finishing strong. I absolutely don’t think 10-1 is outside the realm of possibility by them (as noted earlier in the thread by @BillsVet). I think niners are good, but suspect and all those teams in the nfc west are middling right now. 
 

let’s put it this way, if you think the chiefs are the next best team to the bills and you had that schedule how worried would you be?

 

So is the question, should we still be worried even though we won? Seems like you are talking yourself into still being worried, which is fine because nothing is a given until those seeds are locked in.

 

The win was critical to getting the #1 seed for sure. It would be tough to get a game ahead of the chiefs if we had lost. Now that we are a game ahead, it seems like as long as we dont have a couple jaguars games, we should be ok, but any given sunday for both us and the chiefs.

 

 

[Mafioso]

1 hour ago, RichRiderBills said:

Seems like an overreaction. Really disagree...I think it's rougher than ours.

 

@ Niners is a tough game. 

 

Raiders nearly beat them at home. @ Broncos no joke. 

 

Titans are tough, Jags giving people fits. 

 

Rams are the SB champs and match up well. Could have OBJ by then. Even hags and Texans are not easy outs.

 

 

@ Broncos "no joke?"  Have you watched the Broncos play?  They've had 4 prime time games already and have failed to score more than 19 points in any of those games.  The Broncos are atrocious.

[JoshAllin]

KC doesn't have DB's, they don't have a run game, and the bills just released a new blueprint

[eball]

Remember the Jags!!!!

 

(sorry, it was needed)

[Process]

Everyone has an easy schedule. There are 3 good teams in the entire league.

[BillsFanSD]

1 hour ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

@Niners (-3)

Titans (-6)

Jags (-10)

@Chargers (+2.5)

Rams (-3) 

@Bengals (-1)

@Broncos (PK)

@Texans (-11)

Seahawks (-11)

Broncos (-4)

@Raiders (-3)

I added current point spreads (on KC) for each of these games, just to provide a little more forecasting.  The betting public seems to think that the Chiefs have about six tight games left on their schedule, where I'm defining "tight" as "favored by a FG or less:" @49ers, @Chargers, Rams, @Bengals, @Broncos, and @Raiders.  They're favored in all but one of those games and frankly I expect them to beat the Chargers in LA.      

 

Because I'm a pedant and can't help myself, here's a similar analysis for the Bills' remaining schedule (our spreads have a little more cross-book variance than the Chiefs for some reason, so some of these lines are eyeball estimates):

 

Quote

Packers (-4) 

@Jets (-7)

Vikings (-7.5)

Browns (-10.5)

@Lions (-9)

@Patriots (-3)

Jets (-9.5)

Dolphins (-6)

@Bears (-7.5)

@Bengals (-1)

Patriots (-7.5)

 

We're favored in every game this year, and only two of them (@Patriots and @Bengals) are considered close.  Three if you toss in GB. 

 

I think you're right that the Chiefs have a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way, and of course they're an extremely good team that we would all expect to win most games regardless of their opponent.  But our schedule is easy too.  The divisional games may not be the laughable cakewalk that we were expecting, but none of those teams are particularly scary or even worrisome.  If KC ends up being our only competition for home field, we should feel pretty good about our margin for error.

 

(Of course, "margin for error" is like depth -- it's nice to have but you'd rather not use it).     

Edited October 18, 2022 by BillsFanSD

[dollars 2 donuts]

9 minutes ago, What a Tuel said:

 

So is the question, should we still be worried even though we won? Seems like you are talking yourself into still being worried, which is fine because nothing is a given until those seeds are locked in.

 

The win was critical to getting the #1 seed for sure. It would be tough to get a game ahead of the chiefs if we had lost. Now that we are a game ahead, it seems like as long as we dont have a couple jaguars games, we should be ok, but any given sunday for both us and the chiefs.

 

 

 

 

The thread title was essentially we badly needed this victory given the chief's schedule.

 

We got it.

 

In my opinion their schedule is easier than ours, and I also state I expect the Bills to go at least  14-3.  

 

 

Edited October 18, 2022 by dollars 2 donuts

[PromoTheRobot]

Every team that plays KC will try to mimic what we did on defense.

[Process]

2 minutes ago, BillsFanSD said:

I added current point spreads (on KC) for each of these games, just to provide a little more forecasting.  The betting public seems to think that the Chiefs have about six tight games left on their schedule, where I'm defining "tight" as "favored by a FG or less:" @49ers, @Chargers, Rams, @Bengals, @Broncos, and @Raiders.  They're favored in all but one of those games and frankly I expect them to beat the Chargers in LA.      

 

Because I'm a pedant and can't help myself, here's a similar analysis for the Bills' remaining schedule (our spreads have a little more cross-book variance than the Chiefs for some reason, so some of these lines are eyeball estimates):

 

 

We're favored in every game this year, and only two of them (@Patriots and @Bengals) are considered close.  Three if you toss in GB. 

 

I think you're right that the Chiefs have a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way, and of course they're an extremely good team that we would all expect to win most games regardless of their opponent.  But our schedule is easy too.  The divisional games may not be the laughable cakewalk that we were expecting, but none of those teams are particularly scary or even worrisome.  If KC ends up being our only competition for home field, we should feel pretty good about our margin for error.

 

(Of course, "margin for error" is like depth -- it's nice to have but you'd rather not use it).     

No way those are current. Probably pre season odds. 

 

If we were -4 vs gb I would mortgage the house.

[dollars 2 donuts]

5 minutes ago, BillsFanSD said:

I added current point spreads (on KC) for each of these games, just to provide a little more forecasting.  The betting public seems to think that the Chiefs have about six tight games left on their schedule, where I'm defining "tight" as "favored by a FG or less:" @49ers, @Chargers, Rams, @Bengals, @Broncos, and @Raiders.  They're favored in all but one of those games and frankly I expect them to beat the Chargers in LA.      

 

Because I'm a pedant and can't help myself, here's a similar analysis for the Bills' remaining schedule (our spreads have a little more cross-book variance than the Chiefs for some reason, so some of these lines are eyeball estimates):

 

 

We're favored in every game this year, and only two of them (@Patriots and @Bengals) are considered close.  Three if you toss in GB. 

 

I think you're right that the Chiefs have a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way, and of course they're an extremely good team that we would all expect to win most games regardless of their opponent.  But our schedule is easy too.  The divisional games may not be the laughable cakewalk that we were expecting, but none of those teams are particularly scary or even worrisome.  If KC ends up being our only competition for home field, we should feel pretty good about our margin for error.

 

(Of course, "margin for error" is like depth -- it's nice to have but you'd rather not use it).     

 

 

Great info.  May you live to be a thousand years old, my friend. 

 

If you get bored after 500 years or so I don't kno what to tell ya...sorry.  😄   👍

 

 

3 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Every team that plays KC will try to mimic what we did on defense.

 

 

Our D is sooooo dang good, though, Promo!

 

 

Edited October 18, 2022 by dollars 2 donuts

[BillsFanSD]

Just now, PromoTheRobot said:

Every team that plays KC will try to mimic what we did on defense.

And KC will hang 35+ on them, because that's what happens when you don't have a defense loaded with pro bowlers. 

 

I know we're all fans and homers, but the 2022 Bills legitimately like one of those teams that people will remember 20 years from now.  This team is flat-out stacked.  Just because we can hold KC to 20 points doesn't mean that anybody else can expect to do so.  

[Matt_In_NH]

The Chiefs are better than most of their opponents but there are not many cupcakes on there.

[JoshAllin]

10 minutes ago, BillsFanSD said:

And KC will hang 35+ on them, because that's what happens when you don't have a defense loaded with pro bowlers. 

 

'Had' pro bowlers, Hyde and Tre are still out, Poyer is banged up, backfield is filled with rookies and backups. Von is basically making the D look scary. Teams will need a Milano type of guy on their LB roster if they want to do any mimic ing

Edited October 18, 2022 by motorj

[Big Turk]

Wrong.  The Chiefs have the 15th hardest future schedule, the Bills have the 24th hardest future schedule.  KC needed that win more than we did using your logic.

 

The Jets have the hardest future schedule.  They likely will be falling off soon.

 

And of course, posting the image doesn't work, which is starting to get really annoying since it happens half the time I try it now...within the size limits but gives the red "X" when I try and post it.

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/team-efficiency/2022/regular

Edited October 18, 2022 by Big Turk

[Michael1962]

For me, it will be interesting to see how the chiefs play with SD and the Raiders when they go to their home field.  If I remember them correctly they were both one score games that could have been losses without luck and help from the zebras.  I would not be shocked if they lost to either or both.

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, RichRiderBills said:

Seems like an overreaction. Really disagree...I think it's rougher than ours.

 

@ Niners is a tough game. 

 

Raiders nearly beat them at home. @ Broncos no joke. 

 

Titans are tough, Jags giving people fits. 

 

Rams are the SB champs and match up well. Could have OBJ by then. Even hags and Texans are not easy outs.

 

 

 

 

I agree.

 

Ours is easier.

[Warcodered]

1 hour ago, Virgil said:

I wouldn't underestimate their divisional games.  Those teams always play them close

Also to a certain degree the Chiefs play to there competition's level.

[Big Turk]

3 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I agree.

 

Ours is easier.

 

We also have the easiest remaining schedule in our division. Ours ranks 24th in the NFL, Dolphins 18th, Pats 10th and Jets have the toughest remaining schedule in the NFL.

[Gugny]

1 hour ago, motorj said:

KC doesn't have DB's, they don't have a run game, and the bills just released a new blueprint

 

They have DBs at QB and TE.

 

 

Edited October 18, 2022 by Gugny

[PetermansRedemption]

1 hour ago, Mafioso said:

@ Broncos "no joke?"  Have you watched the Broncos play?  They've had 4 prime time games already and have failed to score more than 19 points in any of those games.  The Broncos are atrocious.

The Broncos offense is atrocious*. Their D is actually really good. That could spell disaster for Mahomes who is used to getting multiple picks dropped by defenses each game. 

[SCBills]

Great thing about the parity in the league is all these teams will likely still believe their seasons are alive, pretty much, to the end.

 

Broncos Defense is absolutely ferocious, but man... Russ looks so washed.  

 

Going into the KC game, I did believe that the 1 seed will be 14-3.  Thing was, I saw very realistic scenarios where both Buffalo and Kansas City are 14-3.. Still do..  Which is why that head to head is so important. 

[Ta111]

1 hour ago, Process said:

No way those are current. Probably pre season odds. 

 

If we were -4 vs gb I would mortgage the house.

Agreed. Coming off a bye week and GB looking like crap, I expect at least a 9 point spread.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Everyone was expecting the AFC West to be the toughest division, so far it hasn't happened.  The problem is there were too many changes made to these rosters (QB's, coaches) and many often overlook how much time it takes all the moves to jell.  I do think by the 2nd half of the season these teams will start to play better, particularly Raiders and Chargers.  Seems every year the Raiders start slow and dig themselves too deep of a hole to easily get out of.

 

Recent history also shows all teams loses games they were expected to win.  Last year late Nov the question was would the Bills be able to win the division or even make the playoffs.  By the end of the season if Allen had scored against Tenn instead of getting stopped on the 1 yard line, the playoffs would have come thru Buffalo.  Point is teams will lose games they were big favorites in including KC.

[nosejob]

44 minutes ago, Michael1962 said:

For me, it will be interesting to see how the chiefs play with SD and the Raiders when they go to their home field.  If I remember them correctly they were both one score games that could have been losses without luck and help from the zebras.  I would not be shocked if they lost to either or both.

I agree. Chargers, Cincy, Titans and Raiders I think are capable and though Wilson looks bad, that defense is good and if he suddenly has a good game....I just think the Chiefs will lose at least 2 more.

 

If we beat GB and I think we will, we'd have to drop 3 and still have the tie breaker. After GB, I don't see us dropping 3.