Week 4: Bills at Ravens 10/2 1pm

[RiotAct]

10 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

 

Wow. Not good for the Bills passing attack. 

not good for the Ravens’ either   FWIW.

[Boatdrinks]

1 hour ago, Big Blitz said:

 

 

Rain and 30 mph gusts as of now.

 

 

Updated forecast 63 degrees with 53% chance of rain and wind at 15mph. Not as bad as first thought 

[Big Blitz]

6 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

Updated forecast 63 degrees with 53% chance of rain and wind at 15mph. Not as bad as first thought 

 

 

Right now the heaviest rain in NOVA/DC is for Saturday during the day.

 

What's left of the eye gets thru here on Monday.  

 

I guess it's track could shift.   

[gobills404]

Lamar is relying on Mark Andrew’s like crazy right now, who has a 36.5% target share so far. For reference, Diggs is at 27.5% so far this year and Kupp (who had 191 targets) was at 31.7% last year. They should just double him every play and force Lamar to throw to these other guys that he obviously doesn’t trust.

[Awwufelloff]

Win this game and I'll forget about Sunday

[Scott7975]

6 hours ago, SCBills said:

Some of y’all can keep trying to talk yourselves into Dane Jackson starting opposite Tre White in a few weeks, but I’d be shocked if it’s not Kaiir Elam. 
 

The guy has elite attributes, is a hard worker and passed his first test with flying colors.   

 

I dont care who plays.  Just put the best players on the field and win the damn games.

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, RiotAct said:

not good for the Ravens’ either   FWIW.

Are you really comparing passing attacks? 

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, gobills404 said:

Lamar is relying on Mark Andrew’s like crazy right now, who has a 36.5% target share so far. For reference, Diggs is at 27.5% so far this year and Kupp (who had 191 targets) was at 31.7% last year. They should just double him every play and force Lamar to throw to these other guys that he obviously doesn’t trust.

 

Because Lamar is not good at spreading the ball around.  The key to beating that offense has always been to contain Lamar and cover Andrews.  Always has been and always will be.  

 

You can look at any Ravens loss or bad games and you will see Lamar had under 100 yards rushing and Andrews had under 60 yards catching.  Mostly Andrews under 40 yards catching and Lamar under 80 yards rushing.

 

This is why Lamar, while is an Elite athlete, is not an Elite QB.  When he cant run and his seam pass to Andrews isnt there then that offense is garbage.

 

Saying all that... thats no easy feat.  Lamar really is an amazing elite athlete and hard to stop and Andrews is one of the best TEs in the league.  I think its a little easier now as I dont think their run game is as good as it was his MVP season.  None of their other targets are going to beat you even if they do catch some passes.

Edited September 29, 2022 by Scott7975

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, gobills404 said:

Lamar is relying on Mark Andrew’s like crazy right now, who has a 36.5% target share so far. For reference, Diggs is at 27.5% so far this year and Kupp (who had 191 targets) was at 31.7% last year. They should just double him every play and force Lamar to throw to these other guys that he obviously doesn’t trust.

It's not that simple. Lamar is so difficult to stop with his duel threat. He also extends plays. Lamar loves to take shots down the field too.  

[newcam2012]

46 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Because Lamar is not good at spreading the ball around.  The key to beating that offense has always been to contain Lamar and cover Andrews.  Always has been and always will be.  

 

You can look at any Ravens loss or bad games and you will see Lamar had under 100 yards rushing and Andrews had under 60 yards catching.  Mostly Andrews under 40 yards catching and Lamar under 80 yards rushing.

 

This is why Lamar, while is an Elite athlete, is not an Elite QB.  When he cant run and his seam pass to Andrews isnt there then that offense is garbage.

 

Saying all that... thats no easy feat.  Lamar really is an amazing elite athlete and hard to stop and Andrews is one of the best TEs in the league.  I think its a little easier now as I dont think their run game is as good as it was his MVP season.  None of their other targets are going to beat you even if they do catch some passes.

Glad you added the last paragraph. I was gonna lay into you. I know you can take it. Lol

 

I do think Lamar is an elite QB. Not in the traditional sense. He's elite because of his legs and explosiveness. Also, he looks to be improved as a passer. He's the number one rated QB vs the blitz. So the game is likely slowing down for him. Also, he is rated first at throwing the ball downfield at 9.2 yards per pass. I think he has two viable receivers in Bateman and Duevernay. I wouldn't be surprised if either beats the banged up young Bills secondary for a few long plays. 

[Scott7975]

5 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Glad you added the last paragraph. I was gonna lay into you. I know you can take it. Lol

 

I do think Lamar is an elite QB. Not in the traditional sense. He's elite because of his legs and explosiveness. Also, he looks to be improved as a passer. He's the number one rated QB vs the blitz. So the game is likely slowing down for him. Also, he is rated first at throwing the ball downfield at 9.2 yards per pass. I think he has two viable receivers in Bateman and Duevernay. I wouldn't be surprised if either beats the banged up young Bills secondary for a few long plays. 

 

Yes, I can take it.  I know others have a difference of opinion and thats ok.  This is just my opinion.  I dont think Lamar is terrible.  I just think that if he has to stand in the pocket and consistently deliver passes that he can't.  Thats not his game.  I think this is why he will not do well in the playoffs because unless the stars align, he is always going to run into a team that can contain him and cover Andrews at the same time. The Ravens have lost almost every game when a team can do that.

 

He has viable receivers and they will make some plays yes.  I just dont think they will make enough to beat you.  One because I dont think Lamar will consistently get them the ball.  Two because they arent exactly players like Diggs, Hill, Chase, etc.

Edited September 29, 2022 by Scott7975

[UKBillFan]

Watching the Pats game back, if Josh gets as much time on the ball as Jones did then he’s going to love it back there. How much was that down to Baltimore’s defensive line being awful and how much the Pat’s OL being good? We’re going to have to be careful securing the ball as they’re very good at punching it out to cause turnovers.

[atlbillsfan1975]

5 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Are you really comparing passing attacks? 

Lamar has been throwing the ball a lot better and has been trying to emphasize it. 
I’m not saying Lamar is Josh Allen or that Baltimore relies as heavily on the pass, but this isn’t the same offensive approach as three years ago. 

[YoloinOhio]

12 hours ago, BBills_88 said:

Buffalo should be practicing with wet balls all week, it's suppose to rain hard on Sunday

Ok Christian Wilkins 

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

Just find a way to make Lamar throw outside the numbers. If he can’t throw to the middle of the field he struggles. Obviously also don’t allow him to kill you with his legs. The Bills have done a pretty good job against him so far but we’ll see.

[BillsFan130]

10 hours ago, LEBills said:

I actually think this is a much easier matchup for us than Miami

 

Baltimores secondary is banged up and we are less likely to see a bunch of 2 high like we did vs Miami. If they do go two high, I hope we see some James Cook getting the 6-9 catches rather than those going to Miss and Singletary the last two weeks.

 

Additionally, and more importantly, Baltimores pass rush is not very good and their rotation is shallow. I think Josh will have a very comfortable day on Sunday.

 

Now Lamar is obviously a much bigger threat than Tua but the Bills have been very good at containing him. Should be a fun game but I expect a convincing win.

I was at the game so it's hard to tell, but you mentioned Miami played a lot of 2 high.

 

To my understanding, didn't they blitz Josh a lot?

 

If that's the case, they probably saw a lot more single high

[Chandler#81]

 

[Not at the table Karlos]

20 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Wasnt Lawson part of the group that helped contain Lamar so well in the playoff game?

 

Would be.  Ya never know.  I think we get Poyer and Oliver back at least.  Dane is probably going to depend on swelling which is probably what he has to over come now.

Lawson wasn't here for the playoff game. Maybe you're thinking of Murphy. 

[Steel City Mafia]

 

[Low Positive]

49 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

 

That fake Photoshopped shark on the highway get dredged up during every hurricane.

[billsfan1959]

DVOA Rankings for Buffalo and Baltimore (Football Outsiders)

 

 

 

Edited September 29, 2022 by billsfan1959

[YoloinOhio]

1 hour ago, BillsFan130 said:

I was at the game so it's hard to tell, but you mentioned Miami played a lot of 2 high.

 

To my understanding, didn't they blitz Josh a lot?

 

If that's the case, they probably saw a lot more single high

They did blitz and it was largely a mistake. He had a 143.9 rating vs the Dolphins blitz … 13-17 with 159 yards and 2 TDs. However on one of them singletary was late to pick it up and it led to the fumble 

[JaCrispy]

I’m so dreading going to this game…first game in 6 years and I end up with a hurricane…Lol

[YoloinOhio]

 

[Big Turk]

37 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

They did blitz and it was largely a mistake. He had a 143.9 rating vs the Dolphins blitz … 13-17 with 159 yards and 2 TDs. However on one of them singletary was late to pick it up and it led to the fumble 

 

That wasn't on Singletary, that was on the Center.  He telegraphed the snap count and also snapped it immediately before the rest of his line could get set after he gave the signal he was snapping the ball. Dawkins literally wasn't even looking at his man and was turned inside pointing out a Dolphin player to Saffold(ie, you take him), and before he could turn his head back and get out of his stance, Ingram was already by him.  That was a WTF play by Van Roten.

Edited September 29, 2022 by Big Turk

[YoloinOhio]

1 minute ago, Big Turk said:

 

That wasn't on Singletary, that was on the Center.  He telegraphed the snap count and also snapped it immediately before the rest of his line could get set after he gave the signal he was snapping the ball. Dawkins literally wasn't even looking at his man and was turned inside pointing out a Dolphin player to Saffold(ie, you take him), and before he could turn his head back and get out of his stance, Ingram was already by him.  That was a WTF play by Van Roten.

This game would have been so much different with Morse

[Big Turk]

Just now, YoloinOhio said:

This game would have been so much different with Morse

 

Totally agree...IMO, the biggest reason for the loss.

[Warriorspikes51]

8 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

This game would have been so much different with Morse

Yup. Almost certain victory 

[uninja]

45 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

They did blitz and it was largely a mistake. He had a 143.9 rating vs the Dolphins blitz … 13-17 with 159 yards and 2 TDs. However on one of them singletary was late to pick it up and it led to the fumble 

They brought tons of pressure in the first half and it was boom/bust. Got a sack fumble that led to 7 but let Bills march down the field for 2TDs. 
 

Second half they brought the same pressure looks but then faded into zone coverages to take away the middle and deep parts of the field. Allen was able to largely deal with by throwing dump offs but it was very effective in forcing the Bills to play long, exhausting drives that would stall in the red zone. Result? An exhausted Bills offense that could only muster 3 points. 

[Ralonzo]

1 hour ago, billsfan1959 said:

DVOA Rankings for Buffalo and Baltimore (Football Outsiders)

 

 

 

 

Surprised to see how effective Baltimore offense is, although a lot of that comes down to their running game being poor as opposed to the Bills which is laughable.

[dollars 2 donuts]

2 hours ago, Steel City Mafia said:

 

 

 

I want to be very clear about this as I absolutely mean it when I say no harm will come to you, whatsoever.

 

Which one of you pissed off the football gods to make us feel their wrath in a game the Bills MUST have?

 

...also where do you live and when are you home?

 

 

Edited September 29, 2022 by dollars 2 donuts

[newcam2012]

14 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Yes, I can take it.  I know others have a difference of opinion and thats ok.  This is just my opinion.  I dont think Lamar is terrible.  I just think that if he has to stand in the pocket and consistently deliver passes that he can't.  Thats not his game.  I think this is why he will not do well in the playoffs because unless the stars align, he is always going to run into a team that can contain him and cover Andrews at the same time. The Ravens have lost almost every game when a team can do that.

 

He has viable receivers and they will make some plays yes.  I just dont think they will make enough to beat you.  One because I dont think Lamar will consistently get them the ball.  Two because they arent exactly players like Diggs, Hill, Chase, etc.

That's fair. Lamar needs to continue to grow as a passer. I think he's much improved but still has lots of room to improve. He is good at throwing in the middle of the field. That's where he hits Andrews. He needs a lot of work throwing outside the numbers. His evolution is pretty fun to watch as a football fan. I truthfully  thought he was a long shot to be a successful QB. Boy was i wrong. He's going to get a massive new contract and I'm rooting for him to do well. Just not this week. 

Edited September 29, 2022 by newcam2012

[MiltonWaddams]

9 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

I want to be very clear about this as I absolutely mean it when I say no harm will come to you whatsoever.

 

Which one of you pissed off the football gods to make us feel their wrath in a game the Bills MUST have?

 

...also where do you live and when are you home?

 

 

My wife keeps killing spiders in my house. Do you think it could be an accumulation of that?!!

[Marv's Neighbor]

Here's the weather forecast for Baltimore/Sunday.

 

Looks like everyone may be hydrated!

 

Day

64°Hi

RealFeel® 60°

Cool

RealFeel Shade™ 59°

Cool

10/2

Some rain from Tropical Rainstorm Ian

Max UV Index1 Low

WindNE 16 mph

Wind Gusts27 mph

Probability of Precipitation91%

Probability of Thunderstorms11%

Precipitation0.19 in

Rain0.19 in

Hours of Precipitation3

Hours of Rain3

Cloud Cover97%

Morning

 

Afternoon

[Logic]

Whether or not Ronnie Stanley plays feels like it will have an enormous impact on this game.

If not, it'll be the Ravens 4th string left tackle, a 4th round rookie, making his first ever start at left tackle. And not just his first ever NFL start -- he didn't play a single snap at LT in college, either.

 

Edited September 29, 2022 by Logic

[dollars 2 donuts]

5 minutes ago, Marv's Neighbor said:

Here's the weather forecast for Baltimore/Sunday.

 

Looks like everyone may be hydrated!

 

Day

64°Hi

RealFeel® 60°

Cool

RealFeel Shade™ 59°

Cool

10/2

Some rain from Tropical Rainstorm Ian

Max UV Index1 Low

WindNE 16 mph

Wind Gusts27 mph

Probability of Precipitation91%

Probability of Thunderstorms11%

Precipitation0.19 in

Rain0.19 in

Hours of Precipitation3

Hours of Rain3

Cloud Cover97%

Morning

 

Afternoon

 

 

OK, Marv, so looking at it the other way...could this help us, or rather hurt them as well or more?

 

I think Josh can cut through those winds.  LJ has a pretty good arm, but can he?  Are they limited here in this situation?

 

 

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, JaCrispy said:

I’m so dreading going to this game…first game in 6 years and I end up with a hurricane…Lol

 

Just bring some rain gear and put some bread bags on your feet to keep them dry.  You'll be fine 😃

 

[YoloinOhio]

3 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

OK, Marv, so looking at it the other way...could this help us, or rather hurt them as well or more?

 

I think Josh can cut through those winds.  LJ has a pretty good arm, but can he?  Are they limited here in this situation?

 

 

His arm strength is not quite in Allen/Mahomes territory but he’s up there 

[Scott7975]

54 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

 

Well there is no QB like Lamar either so this should be a good one.

[MiltonWaddams]

6 minutes ago, Logic said:

Whether or not Ronnie Stanley plays feels like it will have an enormous impact on this game.

If not, it'll be the Ravens 4th string left tackle, a 4th round rookie, making his first ever start at left tackle. And not just his first ever NFL start -- he didn't play a single snap at LT in college, either.

 

Sounds like Ronnie needs some rest.

Paging Mr Gilooly….