2022 MVP: Mahomes wins. Allen gets 1 vote? (42 TDs, 19 TOs, 315 YPG & 63.3%% Comp %--EOY talk 54+)

[DapperCam]

2 hours ago, Buffalo Ballin said:

It's time for the NFL to introduce new awards. I'm tired of seeing QBs get MVP. Let's split it up. The Oscars do it that way.

 

"The Most Valuable Player for QBs goes to...."

"The Most Valuable Player for RBs goes to....."

"The Most Valuable Player for WRs goes to...."

 

And so on. It's time for the MVP to be in categories. NFL and the fans all win in this.

They already do this, it’s called All Pro

[mjt328]

20 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I know what Peter King thinks and he isn't wrong. But even among national writers the narrative matters.

 

MVP voters are going to be swayed heavily by what happens during the final month of the season.  With a strong finish, I could definitely see Josh Allen still walking away with this thing.

 

No matter what anyone says, Jalen Hurts will absolutely drift behind in peoples minds if he ends up missing the final three games (which sounds entirely possible).  His overall yards/touchdowns are already a little below the other top candidates, and this injury could increase that spread.  If the Eagles lose 1-2 games, it knocks a little luster off that team's season (even if he's not actually playing).  If they win without him, it decreases the appearance of his value to the team.  Lose-Lose situation.

 

Patrick Mahomes still has the slight statistical edge over Allen in yards/touchdowns.  If we count passing + rushing, he's only ahead by 247 yards and 2 scores.  A few weeks ago, the big knock on Allen was interceptions.  They are now equal in that category.  The Bills won the head-to-head matchup and are currently the #1 seed in the AFC, ahead of the Chiefs.  Team success is always a major factor in MVP voting.

 

In my opinion, this is what Allen needs in order to secure the MVP award:

- The Bills finish the season 3-0, securing the #1 seed (while also giving him another win over a top QB in Joe Burrow)

- Flashy scoring stats.  I'm thinking 9-10 more touchdowns (giving him 45 overall), and hopefully no more INTs.  Maybe 800-900 more combined yards.

- Have an MVP-quality game against the Bengals, with everyone in the country watching.

 

FYI - Allen is also exactly 1000 yards away from the current NFL record for combined passing/rushing yards.  Breaking any record is a significant achievement that would help in winning the MVP.  It's within striking distance for both Allen and Mahomes.

 

Edited December 20, 2022 by mjt328

[GoBills808]

21 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Ummm... it's not Joe Schmoe who votes for MVP. It's guys who pay attention across the league, like Peter King, who is one of the voters. Here's what he just said in MMQB:

 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2022/12/19/chandler-jones-raiders-immaculate-reception-peter-king-fmia-week-15/

This is by far the toughest week I’ve had in the divining of the MVP. The top three could be in any order, and number four could be number one by season’s end. My list:

 

Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia (13-1). Takes what the D gives him, and on Sunday in Chicago, the D gave him the run. Hurts ran for three scores, and the Eagles, two games clear of the NFL field this morning, won by five.

 

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City (11-3). Four more TD throws and 477 more passing yards than anyone in the game, and his 87.8-percent completion rate Sunday is the best in history for a passer with more than 40 attempts in a game. “If he’s not the MVP, I don’t know who is,” Andy Reid told me. “He took a whole new group of [receivers] and got them ready to win. Think about it. Who are we going to in the passing game? [Travis] Kelce. Now [Mecole] Hardman’s hurt. Then who? They’re all new. Patrick worked all off-season to get those guys ready and look at the results.”

 

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo (11-3). Played a masterful game Saturday night, coming back from eight points down in the fourth quarter as Buffalo basically ended the race in the AFC East by beating Miami. Allen has a great sense of when to hang in the pocket and when to scramble.

When I watch the Chiefs I always get the distinct impression that making sure Patrick Mahomes has the best statistics and case for MVP every year matters a lot to Reid

[mjt328]

On 12/19/2022 at 2:48 PM, Buffalo Ballin said:

Aim for Super Bowl MVP. Not regular season MVP.

 

Absolutely.  

But it would be awesome for our QB to get such a prestigious award.  Our last MVP was Thurman Thomas in 1991.

[Orlando Tim]

On 12/19/2022 at 3:49 PM, 4thandGoal said:

You forgot to list turnovers and rushing yards. Having one loss as well doesnt hurt Hurts...  MVP is going to Hurts!

If I had to pick right now it is clearly Hurts but we have a few weeks left and if he implodes vs Dallas it will make the last few weeks matter. If he smokes Dallas then the race is over.

[The Wiz]

20 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

I am sure that that is all that Josh Allen cares about that being said, is there really another dominant team like ours that relies so much on their QB like we do people might argue Mahomes but it’s definitely between those two

Well we cant at least find out a little bit about the Eagles if Hurts is out for the next game or 2.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, mjt328 said:

 

In my opinion, this is what Allen needs in order to secure the MVP award:

- The Bills finish the season 3-0, securing the #1 seed (while also giving him another win over a top QB in Joe Burrow)

- Flashy scoring stats.  I'm thinking 9-10 more touchdowns (giving him 45 overall), and hopefully no more INTs.  Maybe 800-900 more combined yards.

- Have an MVP-quality game against the Bengals, with everyone in the country watching.

 

 

He needs that and Hurts either to miss 3 game or have a clunker. My view is that most minds are pretty much made up by now. Would take a lot to change them.

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

40 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He needs that and Hurts either to miss 3 game or have a clunker. My view is that most minds are pretty much made up by now. Would take a lot to change them.

 

The media only focuses on the here and now. Which is fine. Wait until that Monday night game against the Bengals comes and goes. That is an absolutely massive game with high stakes.

 

It will play large into the mvp narrative.

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

The media only focuses on the here and now. Which is fine. Wait until that Monday night game against the Bengals comes and goes. That is an absolutely massive game with high stakes.

 

It will play large into the mvp narrative.

 

As a former member of the media I am not sure that is true. Narratives are written and they take a lot to come off them. I don't disagree that a huge game against Cincy could do it... but at this point Allen is still a relative long shot.

[Chaos]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

When I watch the Chiefs I always get the distinct impression that making sure Patrick Mahomes has the best statistics and case for MVP every year matters a lot to Reid

Hurts has the # 1 graded offense (PFF) supporting him. Mahomes has the #2 graded offense supporting him.. Burrows has the #4 rated offense supporting him.  Josh is stuck with the #14 graded offense supporting him.  Hurts, Mahomes, and Burrows would struggle to make the playoffs if they were on the Bills instead of Allen.  Regardless of what some nutbag voters decide, Allen is the best player in the NFl, the best QB in the NFl, the most important player to his team in the NFL, and asked to do do more than any other player in the NFL.  Allen is the MVP, and its not close. 

[QCity]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

My view is that most minds are pretty much made up by now. 

 

 

Not at all. I've been posting lines each week in this thread and it's crazy how much they've moved with the Hurts injury. He needs to play.

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, QCity said:

 

Not at all. I've been posting lines each week in this thread and it's crazy how much they've moved with the Hurts injury. He needs to play.

 

But the betting lines don't make the decision. The voters do.

[CorkScrewHill]

Josh will be hurt this year and likely every year by a few things.

 

1) The Bills will always play in some rougher weather games than any other quarterback and that will hurt the stats (completions due to wind taking the ball, slippery footballs that are dropped, etc.)

 

2) He is not a risk averse quarterback. he takes chances which often result in ridiculous (no Josh, no Josh, YES Josh plays) but also leads to more turnover worthy plays. This leads to the adrenaline rush Josh takes that stand out in the voters minds.

 

I am certain he will win an MVP or two over his career, but I would not wager on which year that would be. I think he has no shot this year.  He will be in the top 5, but unlikely in the top 2.

 

I would love to see him win it this year, but having a QB that is always in the conversation means we have a team that is always in contention. I vividly remember being in my basement with my son, who had never seen the Bills in the playoffs and us backing in in 2017 .. it was such a huge relief, but it felt like a one-off.  The team is now belittled for this and that while holding an 11-3 record which is good for tops in the AFC .. with wins over all the other top 9 AFC teams except the Bengals who we play next week and the Chargers who we will not play. Two of the key victories coming on the road at KC and at Balt.

 

Go Bills and fingers crossed for a big swing toward Josh in the MVP race.

Edited December 21, 2022 by CorkScrewHill

[QCity]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

But the betting lines don't make the decision. The voters do.

 

And the betting lines reflect that.

[Billsfan1972]

13 hours ago, Chaos said:

Hurts has the # 1 graded offense (PFF) supporting him. Mahomes has the #2 graded offense supporting him.. Burrows has the #4 rated offense supporting him.  Josh is stuck with the #14 graded offense supporting him.  Hurts, Mahomes, and Burrows would struggle to make the playoffs if they were on the Bills instead of Allen.  Regardless of what some nutbag voters decide, Allen is the best player in the NFl, the best QB in the NFl, the most important player to his team in the NFL, and asked to do do more than any other player in the NFL.  Allen is the MVP, and its not close. 

He was the the pre-season favourite and frankly while Bills fans see it, pothers may not as he had a mid-season lull (Redzone and Int issues), that effectively ended his chances.

 

Chaos great stats, especially liked the running stats and just how important Allen is.  

 

Regardless Bills fans know the conditions he's played in and when push came to shove vs. KC, Buffalo won.

 

Regardless Cincy will be big and if the Bills run the table I will say what costs him the award at season's end (right or wrong), was those 2-3 brain freezes vs. Minny (4th down Int, where even I would have taken the FG, the goal line fumble & then the horrendous OT Int, which if he led them to a TD, would probably have him #1).  

 

Take a look at the movement of the line.  Could have had Allen @ 20:1 last week.

 

https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/nfl/mvp-odds/#:~:text=Odds to Win 2022-23 NFL MVP&text=Patrick Mahomes is currently the favorite to win the 2022,win %2414.50 and return %2464.50.

Edited December 21, 2022 by Billsfan1972

[ganesh]

1 hour ago, CorkScrewHill said:

while holding an 11-3 record which is good for tops in the AFC .. with wins over all the other top 9 AFC teams except the Bengals who we play next week and the Chargers who we will not play. Two of the key victories coming on the road at KC and at Balt.

 

 

It is astounding that we have beat 8 AFC teams (KC,  BAL, CLE, PIT, MIA, NE, NYJ, TEN)  on the way to 11 wins (3-1 against NFC with 1 game to play).    

[4thandGoal]

On 12/19/2022 at 3:51 PM, H2o said:

Hurts has taken over Lamar's spot as the new dual threat sports media darling. 

You are so right and in 2 years-- he will be just like Jackson with injuries and soreness. Only thing saving him is he has good receivers that he can throw the ball too. 

[Alphadawg7]

On 12/19/2022 at 4:56 PM, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

 Name another QB in the MVP race that has already played 10 games against teams that are currently .500 or better and have went 7-3 in those games. The 3 losses obviously by a total of 8 points.

 

  He's the best player in football, playing on an offense that has no real identity and has very average players outside of Diggs. He has passed or rushed for 36 out of the 42 TDs(85.7%) the offense has scored this year and has 4,562 total yards out of the offenses 5,608(81.3%).

 

 

All reasons why Allen should be serious contender for MVP, unfortunately the people who vote don’t think about it enough like this.  

[HappyDays]

This is a fantastic article from an unbiased writer. I'm not going to copy and paste it. Go read it.

 

Edited December 21, 2022 by HappyDays

[Chaos]

11 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

He was the the pre-season favourite and frankly while Bills fans see it, pothers may not as he had a mid-season lull (Redzone and Int issues), that effectively ended his chances.

 

Chaos great stats, especially liked the running stats and just how important Allen is.  

 

Regardless Bills fans know the conditions he's played in and when push came to shove vs. KC, Buffalo won.

 

Regardless Cincy will be big and if the Bills run the table I will say what costs him the award at season's end (right or wrong), was those 2-3 brain freezes vs. Minny (4th down Int, where even I would have taken the FG, the goal line fumble & then the horrendous OT Int, which if he led them to a TD, would probably have him #1).  

 

Take a look at the movement of the line.  Could have had Allen @ 20:1 last week.

 

https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/nfl/mvp-odds/#:~:text=Odds to Win 2022-23 NFL MVP&text=Patrick Mahomes is currently the favorite to win the 2022,win %2414.50 and return %2464.50.

Was Mahomes brilliant in KC's three losses.  Was Burrows brilliant in Cincy's four losses? Does Philly even need Hurts? 

[Lothar]

On 12/19/2022 at 3:53 PM, Buffalo Ballin said:

It's time for the NFL to introduce new awards. I'm tired of seeing QBs get MVP. Let's split it up. The Oscars do it that way.

 

"The Most Valuable Player for QBs goes to...."

"The Most Valuable Player for RBs goes to....."

"The Most Valuable Player for WRs goes to...."

 

And so on. It's time for the MVP to be in categories. NFL and the fans all win in this.

I think they call that an All-Pro team. 

[Buffalo Ballin]

All Pro is handed out to multiple players within the position. The award doesn't signify the best from that position.

[transplantbillsfan]

On 12/20/2022 at 1:00 PM, GunnerBill said:

 

As a former member of the media I am not sure that is true. Narratives are written and they take a lot to come off them. I don't disagree that a huge game against Cincy could do it... but at this point Allen is still a relative long shot.

 

Oh come on. Former member of the media or not, if Josh Allen wins his final 3 games (this means the team would have won 8 in a row and be the #1 seed) and plays like he did on Saturday in 2 of the 3 or maybe even just 1 of the 3 (as long as it's the Cincy game) Allen will probably win the award.

 

In terms of narratives, you should understand that the NFL is a week to week league.

 

3 games is a lifetime by NFL standards 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Oh come on. Former member of the media or not, if Josh Allen wins his final 3 games (this means the team would have won 8 in a row and be the #1 seed) and plays like he did on Saturday in 2 of the 3 or maybe even just 1 of the 3 (as long as it's the Cincy game) Allen will probably win the award.

 

In terms of narratives, you should understand that the NFL is a week to week league.

 

3 games is a lifetime by NFL standards 

 

Narratives get set. That is the point. I think most of the 50 voters have probably already got a decision in their heads. Is there time to flip it? Sure. But it needs their guy to slip somewhere as well as someone else to flash. 

[The Wiz]

It's going to come down to the next two games.

 

From what they say on the radio, most picks are made/decided before the last week of the season.

 

Either way, I agree with Allen, individual awards don't matter.  It's all about getting a championship.

[GoBills808]

8 hours ago, HappyDays said:

This is a fantastic article from an unbiased writer. I'm not going to copy and paste it. Go read it.

 

Rough look for Knox on those plays

 

The first clip of the throw to McKenzie Knox's route is painfully bad

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Narratives get set. That is the point. I think most of the 50 voters have probably already got a decision in their heads. Is there time to flip it? Sure. But it needs their guy to slip somewhere as well as someone else to flash. 

 

You're equivocating 

 

"Slip" and "Flash" are so relative

[Chandler#81]

Then there’s this..🤦‍♂️
 

 

[GunnerBill]

22 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

You're equivocating 

 

"Slip" and "Flash" are so relative

 

Let me tell you what I am doing... I am telling you how these things work. I have never had a vote for MVP, obviously, but I did for two years have a vote for the Premier League equivalent here in the UK. People talk to one another about it and people do not wait to see 17 games completed them think "right who is my MVP?" They are thinking about it as the year goes along and particularly by halfway through the season most people have an idea in their heads. They don't come off that idea at a whim. 

 

The new voting system is interesting. Maybe that influences the way the results come out but for the most part I am telling you the majority of those 50 voters will have a clear front runner in their heads already and it takes something dramatic to change minds.

[mjt328]

On 12/20/2022 at 4:12 PM, GunnerBill said:

He needs that and Hurts either to miss 3 game or have a clunker. My view is that most minds are pretty much made up by now. Would take a lot to change them.

• Josh Allen was the heavy MVP favorite for the first 8 weeks of the season.  Two bad games and he was completely written off.
• Joe Burrow had a very rough start to the season.  Over the last month, I'm starting to see his name pop-up in the media as a sleeper candidate.

Sure.  Voters have a pretty good idea which players they are looking at.  But the finish to the season will be the most important piece, and leave the strongest impression in their mind.  

 

I agree that Allen needs some things to fall his way, in addition to having a fantastic finish on his own (he really needs a great performance against the Bengals).  But it's not totally unreasonable.

 

The Eagles are pretty much a lock for the #1 seed, even if they drop the upcoming game to the Cowboys.  They have zero reason to push Jalen Hurts into action, and probably would be considering resting him... even if he was 100% healthy.  Fair or not, that is going to hurt him statistically.  Especially when you consider that Patrick Mahomes/Allen could reach some all-time NFL yardage records.  Mahomes clearly has the stats edge right now.  But he's not as far ahead as some make it seem, especially when you factor in rushing.

 

The Chiefs also have a tendency to play-down to competition.  They have looked very unimpressive the last three weeks.  I wouldn't count on Mahomes playing poorly, but anything is possible.  If he slumps, while we hammer the Bengals and take the #1 seed, it very likely could sway a large number of voters.

 

[Mat68]

Allen goes into super Allen mode and beats the Bengals.   Allen is the MVP.  Top seed qb with the best numbers.  Allen would have the numbers and narrative that he carried the Bills down the stretch.  Played through injury and still got home field.  If Buffalo beats Cincy they would hold a win over every division winner in the AFC and all but one playoff team if the Chargers make it.  

Edited December 22, 2022 by Mat68

[DapperCam]

17 hours ago, Mat68 said:

Allen goes into super Allen mode and beats the Bengals.   Allen is the MVP.  Top seed qb with the best numbers.  Allen would have the numbers and narrative that he carried the Bills down the stretch.  Played through injury and still got home field.  If Buffalo beats Cincy they would hold a win over every division winner in the AFC and all but one playoff team if the Chargers make it.  

Mahomes will probably have the best volume stats regardless of what Allen does these last 3 weeks. Gotta just hope for more 3 INT games like vs the Broncos.

[The Wiz]

1 hour ago, DapperCam said:

Mahomes will probably have the best volume stats regardless of what Allen does these last 3 weeks. Gotta just hope for more 3 INT games like vs the Broncos.

I can't remember which team it was, I want to say either the chargers or 49ers but he threw 2 or 3 ints in that game that were negated by so spotty calls.

 

I'm sure there have been others but I was all in one game.

Edited December 23, 2022 by The Wiz

[Process]

16 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

I can't remember which team it was, I want to say either the chargers or 49ers but he threw 2 or 3 ints in that game that were negated by so spotty calls.

 

I'm sure there have been others but I was all in one game.

First chargers game. He threw about 5 picks that were either dropped or negated by penalty.

[DapperCam]

1 hour ago, The Wiz said:

I can't remember which team it was, I want to say either the chargers or 49ers but he threw 2 or 3 ints in that game that were negated by so spotty calls.

 

I'm sure there have been others but I was all in one game.

First Chargers game he had 2 picks called back on penalties. One overturned which was close, and a bunch of dropped picks. The man had a horseshoe up his rear that night.

[transplantbillsfan]

 

[transplantbillsfan]

Bills win. That's all that matters. In terms of MVP race I think it's exactly the same as it was coming into the game. No steps forward. No steps back. Yes, I understand 2 bad Interceptions. Allen also wound up with 3 TDs and his team had a dominant scorebox win.

 

Maybe a tiny step back, but he's still in the race.

 

Wonder if the voters look at all the inclement weather these QBs have played in.

 

What I think this all comes down to is the Cincy game next week. 

 

A side note. We targeted Diggs 2 or 3 times today. Anyone else think Dorsey was thinking about next week's game and holding a bunch of offensive looks in his back pocket?

 

[VW82]

Josh leading the league in turnovers really hurts his case. That and the fact that he's been legitimately average to subpar since the 4th quarter of the Packers game. 

[transplantbillsfan]

Anyone else think Gabe Davis kinda sucks?

 

Can we do an even exchange with the Giants to get Hodgins back?

 

 

Zero effort to come back to the football in the EZ along with the fumble and the lack of sideline awareness as the icing on the cake. He almost looks like he just doesn't care out there.

 

Outside of Diggs, our offensive weapons are pretty blah. Probably should be considered.

[Aussie Joe]

Lol.. no change... right