Milanos Milano Posted April 28, 2022 Author Share Posted April 28, 2022 Just now, Solomon Grundy said: Imagine knowing that Breece Hall has the same RAS, college production, and 40 time as 5 of some of the top NFL RBs to every play the game (Edgerrin, Sanders, LT, AP, and JT) and thinking Hall isn’t worth a 25th pick. If people don’t believe my statistical analysis, they can go through the entire dataset themselves. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Royale with Cheese Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, mrags said: Whatever. people like you make me want to trade the entire draft to trade up for a RB that we could have had at 57 anyway just to watch your head explode. stay safe out there. Enjoy your misery if they take Hall tonight. I'm hearing the worlds smallest violin being played. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milanos Milano Posted April 28, 2022 Author Share Posted April 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Draconator said: Just like Rob Johnson would be an all-pro and would have led the Bills to the Superbowl? I can’t vouch for what other people have said in the past. I’m telling everyone based on the statistical metrics I’ve outlined, only a handful of RBs have done it and the vast majority of them were very very good RBs. To me, that is worth the 25th pick alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
716er Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 Just now, IronMaidenBills said: Imagine knowing that Breece Hall has the same RAS, college production, and 40 time as 5 of some of the top NFL RBs to every play the game (Edgerrin, Sanders, LT, AP, and JT) and thinking Hall isn’t worth a 25th pick. If people don’t believe my statistical analysis, they can go through the entire dataset themselves. Can you post the RAS scores of all the RBs drafted the past maybe 5-10 years or link to where that can be found? Can't find a list of that metric anywhere... I did find Singletary's RAS was less than 2 and he's a pretty good player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWATeam Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said: Imagine knowing that Breece Hall has the same RAS, college production, and 40 time as 5 of some of the top NFL RBs to every play the game (Edgerrin, Sanders, LT, AP, and JT) and thinking Hall isn’t worth a 25th pick. If people don’t believe my statistical analysis, they can go through the entire dataset themselves. Why on earth would this stud last until 25??? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddaryl Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 18 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said: Oh it’s happening. Breece Hall’s statistics are eye popping. His RAS, 2 years of major production, and 40 time statistically translate very very well to the NFL. So much so, that he is in Edgerrin James, AP, LT, JT, and Barry Sanders territory. He’s in good company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milanos Milano Posted April 28, 2022 Author Share Posted April 28, 2022 (edited) 5 minutes ago, 716er said: Can you post the RAS scores of all the RBs drafted the past maybe 5-10 years or link to where that can be found? Can't find a list of that metric anywhere... I did find Singletary's RAS was less than 2 and he's a pretty good player. It’s not just about the general RAS score, you have to pair it with other metrics. They must have at least 2 highly productive college seasons or 1 phenomenal season 1,800+ . And an elite 40 time. Over 80% of the RBs in the dataset that met those criterias had at least 3 good NFL seasons and most were top 30 all time RBs or on their way to becoming a top RB. I posted a link a few pages back. Edited April 28, 2022 by IronMaidenBills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albany,n.y. Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 Joe Buscaglia makes a good case for Hall in his final mock draft: https://theathletic.com/3275674/2022/04/28/bills-mock-draft/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983 The pick at No. 25: Breece Hall, RB, Iowa State Close second: Lewis Cine, S, Georgia In my only other Bills seven-round mock draft, over a month ago, I had the Bills taking Breece Hall, and I’m sticking with it because of Bills logic — not general draft logic. They have yet to add to their fastball in a significant way this offseason, and giving them a player like Hall adds an entirely different dimension to the offense. He’s a home run threat, he’s a pass-catching threat, he has upside in pass protection, he has excellent patience and vision for the zone scheme they’re likely to run more in 2022 and he can make people miss in the open field. The Bills often go for something they don’t have in the first round, and they have no one even close to what Hall could become, and there is no one else like Hall in this draft who fits everything they’re looking for at the position. It’s not about running the ball more; this is still a pass-first operation. It’s about becoming an even more dynamic offense that doesn’t have to rely so heavily on quarterback Josh Allen with designed runs. It’s minimizing the risk of their MVP-level quarterback missing games. Coach Sean McDermott has stressed having the threat to run at all times to help the passing game. Devin Singletary has been fine, but he lacks game-breaking ability and he’s in the final year of his contract. Hall checks way too many boxes to ignore. He would become an electric option on RPOs, and the screen game would actually have life. Just as important, his presence would dissuade the opposition from running the big-pass-play-preventing two-high defense that’s in vogue now. And for those who hate the idea of taking a running back in the first round, I don’t think the Bills are as worried about it as everyone else. General manager Brandon Beane acknowledged that the team had running backs, plural, with first-round grades over the last four years. Last year, after he was selected 25th by the Jaguars, Travis Etienne said he believed he was headed to Buffalo at No. 30. Beane said they would take the player if he added a dynamic skill set the Bills didn’t have on their roster. Hall is that guy. Bills 2022 mock draft class PICKPLAYER 25 Breece Hall, RB, Iowa State 57 Nick Cross, S, Maryland 89 Joshua Williams, CB, Fayetteville State 130 Joshua Ezeudu, IOL, North Carolina 168 James Mitchell, TE, Virginia Tech 173 Jordan Stout, P, Penn State 185 Brandon Smith, LB, Penn State 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrags Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said: I'm hearing the worlds smallest violin being played. Sounds like you’ll be throwing your remote through your TV too. Don’t kick your dog while your at it. She did nothing to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milanos Milano Posted April 28, 2022 Author Share Posted April 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, SWATeam said: Why on earth would this stud last until 25??? You got me, it doesn’t make sense to me. By all historical accounts, he’s in the upper echelons with some of the biggest names out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
716er Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 Just now, IronMaidenBills said: Over 80% of the RBs in the dataset that met those criterias had at least 3 good NFL seasons and most were top 30 all time RBs or on there way to becoming a top RB. I posted a link a few pages back. oh I thought you said he is a hall of famer? Now he is 80% to have at least 3 good seasons? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Royale with Cheese Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 Just now, mrags said: Sounds like you’ll be throwing your remote through your TV too. Don’t kick your dog while your at it. She did nothing to you. I won't be able to throw a remote because I won't have a free hand....because I'll be playing the worlds smallest violin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LabattBlue Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 10 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said: Notice where a majority of the expert dots are throughout the chart Who are the “experts”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrags Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 Just now, Royale with Cheese said: I won't be able to throw a remote because I won't have a free hand....because I'll be playing the worlds smallest violin. I’m sending your neighbors over to get your dog now then. If all you have is feet I don’t want her being kicked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milanos Milano Posted April 28, 2022 Author Share Posted April 28, 2022 1 minute ago, 716er said: oh I thought you said he is a hall of famer? Now he is 80% to have at least 3 good seasons? That’s his base minimum. 3 seasons at over 1k seasons is the bare minimum that’s to be expected given his metrics. The vast majority of the sample sizes were HOF candidates or candidates on their way of making a HOF case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shake_My_Head Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 20 minutes ago, mrags said: The point is, they are connected. If a RB is having a good game/year in fantasy they are likely producing for their teams in major ways. Johnathan Taylor and Nick Chubb say hello. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milanos Milano Posted April 28, 2022 Author Share Posted April 28, 2022 Edgerrin James, LT, AP, Barry Sanders, and JT all had roughly the same metrics as Breece Hall. That’s good enough for me at 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 lol this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoMAn Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 2 hours ago, inaugural balls said: It’s a different era. Though a good thought. I’m not sure that “trio” is required today. That 3rd piece is more likely to be another high end WR or stud TE. (and I’d replace swan with stallworth) The old 'triplets' thing might be outdated, but on the other hand, maybe it's a counter to all the defenses like the Bills' who are now focusing on pass coverage. If we had a back that could catch and power through the front line, it might save some wear and tear on our QB - keeping him from running so often on those short yardage situations. At the very least, it could provide more RPO schemes, opening up the mid to deep part of the field for the TEs and WRs. I want to give opposing defenses match up nightmares. With a QB like JA and the other skill positions, including a threatening RB, it could keep opponents up at night trying to figure out how to stop the Bills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Royale with Cheese Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, mrags said: I’m sending your neighbors over to get your dog now then. If all you have is feet I don’t want her being kicked. I'm actually going to be at a bar so the dog can stay. You might want to message my friend Wade to let him know to wear catchers gear because I'm going to be kicking and punching if we select Hall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikie's Bills Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 I think he would still be available if we traded down 5-10 spots. If all the top corners are off the board and they're considering Hall I hope they would be able to trade down a few spots and set us up well for day 2 of the draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jauronimo Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 19 minutes ago, 716er said: Can you post the RAS scores of all the RBs drafted the past maybe 5-10 years or link to where that can be found? Can't find a list of that metric anywhere... I did find Singletary's RAS was less than 2 and he's a pretty good player. https://ras.football/2017/01/17/rb-relative-athletic-scores-ras-table/ Heres some discussion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solomon Grundy Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 24 minutes ago, 716er said: Can you post the RAS scores of all the RBs drafted the past maybe 5-10 years or link to where that can be found? Can't find a list of that metric anywhere... I did find Singletary's RAS was less than 2 and he's a pretty good player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beast Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 22 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said: I won't be able to throw a remote because I won't have a free hand....because I'll be playing the worlds smallest violin. That will be a change from you playing with the worlds smallest something else. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCBills Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 (edited) If we draft Breece Hall, I’d like to see Singletary moved, likely as a piece to help us trade up in say the 3rd or 4th. He’s an above average RB, but not a playmaker, and has struggled in his 3 years when not given the bulk of snaps. He’s not a power guy to compliment Hall. We clearly wouldn’t be re-signing him and I’d rather roll with Hall, Johnson and Moss (or draft another RB in the mid/late rounds). Let Motor go somewhere that he has a chance to earn a second contract. Edited April 28, 2022 by SCBills 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milanos Milano Posted April 28, 2022 Author Share Posted April 28, 2022 According to the statistics, Reggie Bush and Darren McFadden are the floor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 41 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said: Based on historic data, Hall is in HOF worthy discussion already. Every great NFL player with the metrics Breece Hall has went on to do great things if they remained healthy. There are LOTS of college RBs that meet that criteria….and stunk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milanos Milano Posted April 28, 2022 Author Share Posted April 28, 2022 Just now, NewEra said: There are LOTS of college RBs that meet that criteria….and stunk A 40 below 4.4 ? And a RAS above 8 and at least 2 years of solid production 1,400+ or 1 year 1,800+ ? List them. There aren’t many. Runners like Reggie Bush and Darren McFadden are the floor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solomon Grundy Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 34 minutes ago, 716er said: Can you post the RAS scores of all the RBs drafted the past maybe 5-10 years or link to where that can be found? Can't find a list of that metric anywhere... I did find Singletary's RAS was less than 2 and he's a pretty good player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Royale with Cheese Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, Beast said: That will be a change from you playing with the worlds smallest something else. @teef Are you going to let him talk about you like this? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solomon Grundy Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrEpsYtown Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 RAS for Singletary is so low because he is small and slow. Those two things will kill a score. Size has a big factor in those calculations, but speed is more important. he lacks in both those areas, so low score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shake_My_Head Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 25 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said: Edgerrin James, LT, AP, Barry Sanders, and JT all had roughly the same metrics as Breece Hall. So did Justin Fargas, Jackie Battle, James Stewart, Deuce McAllister, Ryan McCants and Jonathan Stewart. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaw66 Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 Well, I finally opened this thread. Kind of amazing that one guy's passion has pushed this threat to nearly 100 pages! I just watched Hall's 2021 highlights. He certainly looks like an upgrade from Singletary, but I have to say I don't see the greatness Ironmaiden sees. I don't see Marshawn Lynch. However, he does look like a quality back, and his receiving skills seem very good. If his name is called at 25, I'll be happy because I'll know that Beane and McDermott will have decided that he's the back they need. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logic Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 Just wanted to come in and say that I respect @IronMaidenBills and @Solomon Grundy for planting their flag on “draft Breece Hall” hill and sticking with it for dozens of pages. The Bills may draft him. They may not. But either way, you gentlemen can be proud to have defended your position with dedication and consistency for weeks and weeks in an internet message board. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milanos Milano Posted April 28, 2022 Author Share Posted April 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said: RAS for Singletary is so low because he is small and slow. Those two things will kill a score. Size has a big factor in those calculations, but speed is more important. he lacks in both those areas, so low score. Which is why he was a bad draft pick. He does nothing elite and can’t get outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solomon Grundy Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said: Kind of amazing that one guy's passion has pushed this threat to nearly 100 pages! Two guys!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milanos Milano Posted April 28, 2022 Author Share Posted April 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, Shake_My_Head said: So did Justin Fargas, Jackie Battle, James Stewart, Deuce McAllister, Ryan McCants and Jonathan Stewart. They didn’t meet all 3 of my metrics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrEpsYtown Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said: Which is why he was a bad draft pick. He does nothing elite and can’t get outside. To be fair, no one gets outside in the NFL. But I agree, I didn't like the pick because of lack of upside. i think he would excel in a Ravens top gap scheme offense. But again, you have to feed him carries for him to really impact the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
appoo Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 One thing I'm annoyed by Bills Twitter are the people who constantly bring up CEH and the Chiefs. Those are very different. Why? CEH didn't actually add anything new to the offense. He was a redundant piece that was supposed to make it harder for teams to defend the offense. But they already had speed, catching out of the backfield and decent runners. Breece Hall brings two aspects the Bills generally don't have. Home run speed, a receiving threat in the backfield and screen game. When you draft in the first round, you draft for something you're team doesn't have, and if it's so well rounded, then something that's going to come off the roster in the next year or two 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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