Breece Hall Please!!

[Shaw66]

1 minute ago, Pabstblueribbon said:

It's a bit more nuanced than that imo. There is validity to the issue of rb positional worth of even a stud rb taken in early 1st round picks landing on an otherwise terrible team. If Buffalo picks Hall at 25 it will be based on the same mindset that made KC draft CEH. The logic is actually becoming more clear to me, if you agree that Hall has a high probability of becoming a special player.  

I think it's the opposite.  You're correct, it is the same as KC drafting CEH.  They saw that he fit very nicely in what they were trying to do.  I will be thrilled if the Bills have reached the same conclusion about Hall and take him.   But our fearless leader here isn't telling us Hall is CEH.   He's saying he's on a par with Edgerrin James and a couple of other Hall of Famers.  CEH was a great fit for the Chiefs, but he's not a Hall of Fame player or anyplace close.  Hall may be a great fit for the Bills, but that's a completely different proposition than Hall is a probable Hall of Famer who somehow is likely to fall to 25.   

[Rochesterfan]

28 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

I’ve gone through most of the RBs I can think of. I’m sure I might have missed a few, but if anyone finds one I’ve missed, feel free to post them. You can be as critical as you want, it’s good discussion. 

He’s on my metrics list. Amazing isn’t it. 

 

27 minutes ago, NewEra said:

 

Another player on the list - Taiwan Jones - our ST ace.  4.33 40 time, mid 9 RAS, 1200 and 1700 yards in college.  Never done a thing as a RB.

 

🤦‍♂️

[Buffalo716]

27 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Well Jonathan Taylor is in my metric group and he got selected in the 2nd round. Sometimes the pros miss elite talent. 

Jonathan Taylor is also playing with an amazing run blocking line 

 

You see the run blocking schemes they're able to pull off and it's a thing of beauty

 

Put him behind the Texans line and I guarantee he doesn't look like an all pro 

 

It always takes two to tango.. OJ Simpson behind a weak line wasn't an MVP

Edited April 28, 2022 by Buffalo716

[Shaw66]

18 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

 All I’m doing is just pointing out the players that belong to an elite statistical club. 

Please.   Now you should just stop.   

 

You're NOT just pointing out that he's in a statistically elite club.   You've been saying over and over that BECAUSE he's a member of an elite statistical club he WILL be great.   And that, my friend, is a conclusion based on false logic. 

 

He may be great, he may not be, but your data doesn't prove it.  Is your data interesting?   Sure, in same way hundreds of stats that are spouted on TV are interesting.  It proves nothing. 

 

 

[NewEra]

48 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

I take that back. Barkley didn’t meet the qualifications. 

Oh man

[ExWNYer]

[Milanos Milano]

14 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

 

Another player on the list - Taiwan Jones - our ST ace.  4.33 40 time, mid 9 RAS, 1200 and 1700 yards in college.  Never done a thing as a RB.

 

🤦‍♂️

I said 1800+ or 2 1400 seasons. Right now Brieda is the only other legitimate sample. 

And Brieda and McKinnon played at terrible schools. Worse than big 12 or big 10. 

Edited April 28, 2022 by IronMaidenBills

[716er]

3 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

I said 1800+ or 2 1400 seasons. Right now Brieda is the only other legitimate sample. 

 

How many players with 1800+ or 2 1400 yard seasons have their ever been?

 

What is the RAS score of each of those players?

 

You need that information to make any statistical assumption.

[Milanos Milano]

Just now, 716er said:

 

How many players with 1800+ or 2 1400 yard seasons have their ever been?

 

What is the RAS score of each of those players?

 

You need that information to make any statistical assumption.

I’ve already listed them. 

[716er]

Just now, IronMaidenBills said:

I’ve already listed them. 

 

You've listed the ones with high RAS scores.

 

How about every other?

[NewEra]

Dunno if this has been linked yet.  What do you think about this @IronMaidenBills

 

https://ras.football/2017/01/17/rb-relative-athletic-scores-ras-table/?amp

16 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Jonathan Taylor is also playing with an amazing run blocking line 

 

You see the run blocking schemes they're able to pull off and it's a thing of beauty

 

Put him behind the Texans line and I guarantee he doesn't look like an all pro 

 

It always takes two to tango.. OJ Simpson behind a weak line wasn't an MVP

Mmmmmhmmmmm

[716er]

6 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Dunno if this has been linked yet.  What do you think about this @IronMaidenBills

 

https://ras.football/2017/01/17/rb-relative-athletic-scores-ras-table/?amp

 

Saw that earlier.

 

One thing I noticed is the best PASS CATCHING RBs are not at the top of the list.

 

That's what we need most, yes?

 

A few notables off the top of my head I searched for there...

 

McCoy - 6.22

Kamara - 8.11

McCaffrey - 8.44

James White - 4.94

Kevin Faulk - 7.4

Edited April 28, 2022 by 716er

[Milanos Milano]

8 minutes ago, 716er said:

 

You've listed the ones with high RAS scores.

 

How about every other?

Sanders, AP, JT, Edgerrin, Hall, McFadden,Tevin Coleman , Eteniene all meet the criteria I’ve already mentioned . I’m also going to include it has to be from an acceptable division. And not scrub teams like Georgia Southern. 

Edited April 28, 2022 by IronMaidenBills

[716er]

1 minute ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Sanders, AP, JT, Edgerrin, Hall, and Tevin all meet the criteria I’ve already mentioned . I’m also going to include it has to be from an acceptable division. And not scrub teams like Southern Georgia. 

 

They all have high RAS scores. We know this.

 

How about the RBs who achieved the statistics you reference (not RAS scores) and how their careers turned out?  It's more logical that a player who dominated in college will be better at the next level.

[Milanos Milano]

2 minutes ago, 716er said:

 

They all have high RAS scores. We know this.

 

How about the RBs who achieved the statistics you reference (not RAS scores) and how their careers turned out?  It's more logical that a player who dominated in college will be better at the next level.

I told you. My criteria is High RAS scores (8+), 2 years of 1,400+ or 1 year 1,800+, and a 40 time of 4.40 or lower and play in a acceptable conference. I’ve listed the players already that reached that

[njbuff]

8 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Sanders, AP, JT, Edgerrin, Hall, McFadden,Tevin Coleman , Eteniene all meet the criteria I’ve already mentioned . I’m also going to include it has to be from an acceptable division. And not scrub teams like Georgia Southern. 

 

Hey?? That scrub team produced Tyler Bass. 😁

[Milanos Milano]

Just now, njbuff said:

 

Hey?? That scrub team produced Tyler Bass. 😁

There is a big difference between running against subpar defenses and kicking field goals which doesn’t really matter much which team you play against. 

[716er]

2 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

I told you. My criteria is High RAS scores (8+), 2 years of 1,400+ or 1 year 1,800+, and a 40 time of 4.40 or lower and play in a acceptable conference. I’ve listed the players already that reached that

 

I understand your criteria

 

The question is - What players with two years of 1,400+ or 1 year of 1,800+ and a 40 time of 4.4 or lower who play in an acceptable conference has a RAS score that does not fit your criteria?

 

The data from that question would isolate the parameter (RAS SCORE) you love so much to compare the two groups. 

 

It is my theory that college RBs with incredible production contribute at the next level at a comparable rate regardless of their RAS score.

[Solomon Grundy]

Lol. Mike Rob dancing when they asked Ian Rapoport who's going to be the 1st RB selected and where they might go. Ian said the word is Breece Hall to the Bills. Mike Rob screamed "Bills Mafia stand up!!"

[Milanos Milano]

4 minutes ago, 716er said:

 

I understand your criteria

 

The question is - What players with two years of 1,400+ or 1 year of 1,800+ and a 40 time of 4.4 or lower who play in an acceptable conference has a RAS score that does not fit your criteria?

 

The data from that question would isolate the parameter (RAS SCORE) you love so much to compare the two groups. 

 

It is my theory that college RBs with incredible production contribute at the next level at a comparable rate regardless of their RAS score.

I can’t answer your question because I haven’t gone through every single RB to play in the NFL in modern times. I do know from casual glancing that the bust rate is higher if you expand the parameters. Maybe if I get more free time soon, I will do a more comprehensive analysis of the full database. 

Edited April 28, 2022 by IronMaidenBills

[Solomon Grundy]

30 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Please.   Now you should just stop

I agree!! @IronMaidenBills, come back at approximately 11:15 pm and lose your mind!! 

[716er]

Just now, IronMaidenBills said:

I can’t answer your question because I haven’t gone through every single RB to play in the NFL in modern times. I do know from casual glancing that the bust rate is higher if you expand the parameters. 

 

You would be looking at each college RB who had two years of 1,400+ or 1 year of 1,800+ and a 40 time of 4.4 or lower, not every single RB to play in the NFL in modern times.

 

You need a group to compare your group to for your theory to stick.

[Rochesterfan]

21 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

I said 1800+ or 2 1400 seasons. Right now Brieda is the only other legitimate sample. 

And Brieda and McKinnon played at terrible schools. Worse than big 12 or big 10. 

 

How about Danny Woodhead.

 

4.33 40, 1800+ and 1700+ yards 2 different years in college, RAS upper 8.  Never had more than 600 yards in he NFL.

 

Plus there are a ton of guys right on that edge - Michael Bennett - 1681 yards in 1 season, Jerious Norwood 2 college years well over 1000 yards, Justice Hill, TJ Duckett 4.42 40.

 

I get that you think you metric hits 80%, but it is looking more like 50% and a ton of average players right in the same range - so not sure the metrics matter and those players are more recent than you HOFs.

 

At this point I am only in the upper 8 RAS all time.

 

I am sure there will be more, but whatever.  Keep telling everyone that he is a HOF base upon your metric.

 

 

[Milanos Milano]

2 minutes ago, 716er said:

 

You would be looking at each college RB who had two years of 1,400+ or 1 year of 1,800+ and a 40 time of 4.4 or lower, not every single RB to play in the NFL in modern times.

 

You need a group to compare your group to for your theory to stick.

I would have to look at every single RBs production to determine that group. Because I don’t have a database that I can run those queries. 

Edited April 28, 2022 by IronMaidenBills

[Rochesterfan]

29 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

I said 1800+ or 2 1400 seasons. Right now Brieda is the only other legitimate sample. 

And Brieda and McKinnon played at terrible schools. Worse than big 12 or big 10. 

 

Ahh more things that must be taken into account.

 

 

[716er]

1 minute ago, IronMaidenBills said:

I would have to look at every single RBs production to determine that group. Because I don’t have a database that I can run those queries. 

 

oh well

 

Bunk analysis then. 

[Milanos Milano]

1 minute ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

Ahh more things that must be taken into account.

 

 

Is it not reasonable to factor in competition now in scouting? This is news to me. 

[B-Man]

 

 

89 pages.

 

I hope the board holds up when Hall isn't the pick.

 

 

[Milanos Milano]

Just now, 716er said:

 

oh well

 

Bunk analysis then. 

Maybe someone with more information can give us a hand. It’s not a total waste of analysis. 

[ExWNYer]

3 minutes ago, 716er said:

 

You would be looking at each college RB who had two years of 1,400+ or 1 year of 1,800+ and a 40 time of 4.4 or lower, not every single RB to play in the NFL in modern times.

 

You need a group to compare your group to for your theory to stick.

 

It's not a theory, it's an 89 page (and growing) crusade which will no longer be "contributing positively to the community" come 11:30ish tonight.

[Rochesterfan]

Just now, IronMaidenBills said:

Is it not reasonable to factor in competition now in scouting? This is news to me. 

 

Only when it became obvious your metric was wrong did it become an issue.

 

it is part of the reason people question Hall - his competition in the big 12 on defense was pathetic- just as bad as many lower colleges.

 

 

[Shaw66]

1 minute ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Agree with you on CB, but it's been pointed out the McD and Beane going all the way back to their Carolina days have never used, think it was higher than a 3rd round pick on a #2 CB.  Only thing that changes it just a little this season  is White being hurt. But if they never drafted a #2 CB above round 3 prior, gives me doubt they'll do it now.

I don't know what they'll take, but it makes perfect sense to take a corner in round 1.   It's more or less exactly the same as the reason you might take a wideout in round 1.   If you can get a #1 corner or a #1 wide receiver, he's a perfect #2 at low cost for four years, about the time that you will be looking at the decline or end of careers for Diggs and White.   It will be exactly the time to give the guy #1 money.   

 

And in general, I think it doesn't make much sense to say they've never done it, so they won't.   I think Beane's shown he'll do whatever he thinks makes sense.   Did Beane ever trade a #1 for a veteran before Diggs?   Did he ever sign a HOF edge before he signed MIller?   

 

I'm way past trying to predict Beane, except to say that he's likely to do the unexpected. 

[DJB]

13 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

 

89 pages.

 

I hope the board holds up when Hall isn't the pick.

 

 

 

Even if we dont draft him we can argue about how we should have drafted him anyways 

[Jauronimo]

31 minutes ago, njbuff said:

 

Hey?? That scrub team produced Tyler Bass. 😁

I've never seen such leg arrogance.

[NewEra]

42 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Dunno if this has been linked yet.  What do you think about this @IronMaidenBills

 

https://ras.football/2017/01/17/rb-relative-athletic-scores-ras-table/?amp

 

@IronMaidenBills

you’ve gone out of your way to answer any and every post directed @ you.  Can I get your take on this?  lots of players in there that didn’t play @ Georgia Southern. 

https://ras.football/2017/01/17/rb-relative-athletic-scores-ras-table/?amp

 

[Rochesterfan]

17 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Is it not reasonable to factor in competition now in scouting? This is news to me. 

 

Additionally let’s go back to your original parameters - you included Barry Sanders, but on the RAS website - his 40 time was listed as 4.41 - so technically he doesn’t meet your criteria either - pulling things down further.

 

I have a bunch of average guys that just miss out by a few yards - one of your HOFs miss out by 40 time according to RAS.

 

 

[BuffaloRebound]

7 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I don't know what they'll take, but it makes perfect sense to take a corner in round 1.   It's more or less exactly the same as the reason you might take a wideout in round 1.   If you can get a #1 corner or a #1 wide receiver, he's a perfect #2 at low cost for four years, about the time that you will be looking at the decline or end of careers for Diggs and White.   It will be exactly the time to give the guy #1 money.   

 

And in general, I think it doesn't make much sense to say they've never done it, so they won't.   I think Beane's shown he'll do whatever he thinks makes sense.   Did Beane ever trade a #1 for a veteran before Diggs?   Did he ever sign a HOF edge before he signed MIller?   

 

I'm way past trying to predict Beane, except to say that he's likely to do the unexpected. 

Exactly.  Who’s to say the pick at 25 doesn’t eventually become the #1 corner or #1 WR?  

[Milanos Milano]

28 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

Only when it became obvious your metric was wrong did it become an issue.

 

it is part of the reason people question Hall - his competition in the big 12 on defense was pathetic- just as bad as many lower colleges.

 

 

Major difference between Georgia Southern and Big12. I guess AP dominated bad talent huh? 

33 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

How about Danny Woodhead.

 

4.33 40, 1800+ and 1700+ yards 2 different years in college, RAS upper 8.  Never had more than 600 yards in he NFL.

 

Plus there are a ton of guys right on that edge - Michael Bennett - 1681 yards in 1 season, Jerious Norwood 2 college years well over 1000 yards, Justice Hill, TJ Duckett 4.42 40.

 

I get that you think you metric hits 80%, but it is looking more like 50% and a ton of average players right in the same range - so not sure the metrics matter and those players are more recent than you HOFs.

 

At this point I am only in the upper 8 RAS all time.

 

I am sure there will be more, but whatever.  Keep telling everyone that he is a HOF base upon your metric.

 

 

Division 2. Come one guys, you are so disingenuous. On the edge doesn’t count. That’s why they are on the edge. 

Edited April 28, 2022 by IronMaidenBills

[NewEra]

6 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Major difference between Georgia Southern and Big12. I guess AP dominated bad talent huh? 

Division 2. Come one guys, you are so disingenuous. 

Yes….AP did dominated bad talent.  There’s no doubt.  
 

https://ras.football/2017/01/17/rb-relative-athletic-scores-ras-table/?amp

 

many thoughts?

Edited April 28, 2022 by NewEra

[Rochesterfan]

1 hour ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Yes. You are either getting Barry Sanders, AP, JT, Edgerrin James, Eteniene(hurt) or Tevin Coleman. I like my chances. 

 

So not only did Barry sanders have a 4.41 40 time for his RAS - not in your metric.

 

RAS lists AP with a 4.41 40 time also.

 

So right now based upon have a high RAS, below a 4.40 40, and >1400 yards x2 or >1800 yard - your list is

 

Edgerrin James HOF, Jonathan Taylor, Travis Eteniene - who was moved to WR not a RB in Jacksonville. 
 

We also have guys like Tevin Coleman, Jerrick McKinnion, Danny Woodhead, and Matt Bereida that all meet the metric and push your metric to 2 excellent backs and 4 JAGS that meet you metric.

 

If you want to up the 40 time to include Sanders and AP - then guys like TJ Duckett start to push their way in.

 

I love the idea, but I do not think your very limited metrics amount to proving anything.

 

Sorry.