Breece Hall Please!!

[NewEra]

18 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

There is no place to read it because it’s my own doing. As far as I know the three metrics being used together hasn’t been done anywhere online. It’s only happened a handful of times. It’s not a large sample size. It’s elite company. 

But you don't have ANY examples of players with Hall-like metrics that have succeeded for failed?  its just a very shallow explanation that doesn't compel me to believe you. no offense  considering that you have done some research, i'm sure you wouldve come up with at least 5 examples of players that excelled and 5 that did not.  without any names at all, its tough to sell the data

[SWATeam]

1 minute ago, IronMaidenBills said:

It’s a category where only the freakiest of athletes are found. Of course it’s going to be a small sample size. AP, JT, Edgerrin, and Sanders is great club to be in. Only Tevin Coleman is the outlier. 

So you're saying he has a 20% chance of busting?

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, SCBills said:

 

I'm trying to figure out why he doesn't look like the RB his testing/results seem he is..

 

Is it as simple as ISU's uniforms are trash and BIG XII tier 2 telecasts are awful quality?  Because he's running away from people, but doesn't look like a 4.39 guy.  The tape just doesn't look explosive, yet his track record has him doing explosive things.

 

I never watched him live, but when I watched Najee or Etienne, I saw explosiveness.  Najee hurdling people and Etienne's absurd acceleration.  Also Bama/Clemson games are top tier quality broadcasts almost every time. 

 

Breece Hall does look incredibly fluid as a receiiving option, and if teams are going to give us RB checkdowns all game, Breece Hall looks like the type of guy to make them regret doing that.  

 

To me, he looks like a 3 down back, with top tier receiving skills and 4.39 speed.   If we go that route at 25, i'll question the asset allocation of a RD1 RB, but would definitely be excited about what he brings to the offense. 

You describe very well what I see.   I don't see an explosive guy, but an extremely dependable guy on all three downs.   In fact, I see his as a better Singletary - all round back, but Hall is better in almost every category.  Actually, that's the kind of profile that McDermott likes - give me a guy who's just good at everything.  (I think of Hyde and Poyer and White like that.  And Davis.)

 

So, yeah, I'd be happy to add him.   I think we all get hung up on this first round, second round thing.  Fact is, where the Bills are picking, there's not a huge difference in the talent that we thing of as second round talent.   So, taking him at 25, although technically first round, doesn't bother me.  Top 15 is what would bother me for any running back.  That is a misspent pick.   Best news I ever heard was that the Giants were locked in on Saquon.   Dumbest move, ever, with Eli on the verge or retirement.  

[Milanos Milano]

1 minute ago, SWATeam said:

So you're saying he has a 20% chance of busting?

Yeah, which is lower than most of the other spots where RB is taken. I’d rather take my chances given the elite club Hall belongs to. 

[LeGOATski]

2 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

So you're saying he has a 20% chance of busting?

Analytics?

[Shaw66]

5 minutes ago, Bray Wyatt said:

15 more pages to go! Cmon only a few hours left, dont let me down!

I've posted two or three times.  Have I done my part?

[Milanos Milano]

10 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

Analytics?

Yes. You are either getting Barry Sanders, AP, JT, Edgerrin James, Eteniene(hurt) or Tevin Coleman. I like my chances. 

Edited April 28, 2022 by IronMaidenBills

[LeGOATski]

Just now, IronMaidenBills said:

Yes. You are either getting Barry Sanders, AP, JT, Edgerrin James, Barkely(hurt), or Tevin Coleman. I like my chances. 

You're not getting any of those guys. You're 100% getting Breece Hall.

2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I've posted two or three times.  Have I done my part?

Only if you've replied at least once to IronMaidenBills

[Solomon Grundy]

 

[Milanos Milano]

1 minute ago, LeGOATski said:

You're not getting any of those guys. You're 100% getting Breece Hall.

Only if you've replied at least once to IronMaidenBills

Of course you are getting Breece Hall, but chances are high we get at least 3 seasons of great production and maybe even a HOF candidate. Sign me up. 

[Solomon Grundy]

 

[SoMAn]

1 hour ago, inaugural balls said:

I’m all for providing weapons to the offense - even at RB. Though using our 1st overall on one isn’t my cup of tea. 
 

Go Bills!!

If the Bills had a lot of holes to fill I'd agree about using a 1st round pick on a RB. The consensus has been to pick WR or CB. We have 3 pretty good receivers and a couple in the wings  (Hodgins and Stevenson) that may still pan out.  You could make an argument for CB, but we expect to get White back sooner than later. As I stated in a previous thread, the Bills went 5-3 after White went down (not even counting the win in that Saints game). 1 of those losses being the wind bowl at home against Pats, and the other 2 OT losses against the previous 2 superbowl winners, TB and KC.  I don't see CB being as dire a need as some believe.

 

Although some great RBs have lasted past round 1 in recent years, you run the risk of settling for another Moss or Singletary. Decent enough backs, but no opposing team is working overtime to figure out how to stop them.  I'd love to see a RB in the backfield that is a weapon to be feared. 

 

Whatever the Bills do, I have complete trust in Beane and the personnel dept. so I'll be happy with any path they choose.

[Milanos Milano]

I take that back. Barkley didn’t meet the qualifications. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

31 minutes ago, muppy said:

thank you for this. My thinking was that since (at least to me) it appears like this past offseason was done to fill holes through free agency that the few pieces of the roster that need shoring up would be a top tier guy , best player available on their draft board, to help the team this year.  As well as shore up with guys to  develop. But the roster top to bottom seems pretty stacked with exception of the CB and OL..imo less WR and RB......what I DO know is about half or less of what the decision makers at 1bd do. I do trust their judgment and their process bottom line. Its clearly fun to conjecture.

 

Agree with you on CB, but it's been pointed out the McD and Beane going all the way back to their Carolina days have never used, think it was higher than a 3rd round pick on a #2 CB.  Only thing that changes it just a little this season  is White being hurt. But if they never drafted a #2 CB above round 3 prior, gives me doubt they'll do it now.

[Milanos Milano]

6 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

 

Don’t stop Billieving! Hold on to that feeling. 

Edited April 28, 2022 by IronMaidenBills

[LabattBlue]

43 minutes ago, Bray Wyatt said:

15 more pages to go! Cmon only a few hours left, dont let me down!

I miss the feature of previous versions of software, where you could click on post total for a thread and see how many posts each member has “contributed” to the thread.  Would love to see the breakdown for this trainwreck. 😂

Edited April 28, 2022 by BTB

[muppy]

1 minute ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Agree with you on CB, but it's been pointed out the McD and Beane going all the way back to their Carolina days have never used, think it was higher than a 3rd round pick on a #2 CB.  Only thing that changes it just a little this season  is White being hurt. But if they never drafted a #2 CB above round 3 prior, gives me doubt they'll do it now.

the recovery of Tre White is indeed the rub. They will I think hope for the best, and prepare for a delay of his return. That's an unknown variable. Good insight on their past drafting history. appreciate that. .......we'll see what happens   🙂

[Shaw66]

5 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Of course you are getting Breece Hall, but chances are high we get at least 3 seasons of great production and maybe even a HOF candidate. Sign me up. 

Okay, I'll do my part.  The chances are NOT high that the Bills will get three great years out of this guy.   You simply cannot prove that, particularly when your proof is essentially one data point compared to one data point for a bunch of other guys.   

 

You may be right, but his probability of success is not nearly as high as you'd have us believe. 

 

I was in a discussion yesterday about Williamson.  Someone told me to watch a discussion of talking heads about how could he is.  They said top 4 in the draft, absolutely.  I looked at video of Williamson playing.   You know what I saw?   Sammy Watkins.  I don't care what measureables the guy has, nobody is going to convince me on stats that the guy is about to become an all-time great receiver.   And you are not going to convince on a stat that Hall is Edgerrin James.  

 

I watch the Hall highlights and ask myself this question:   Is this guy as good as Dalvin Cook?   To my eyes, no, and the guy is playing against Big 12 (or whatever conference) talent.  

 

 

[mrags]

22 minutes ago, Bray Wyatt said:

15 more pages to go! Cmon only a few hours left, dont let me down!

Just here now to add to this thread. Let’s go 100. 

[NewEra]

15 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Yes. You are either getting Barry Sanders, AP, JT, Edgerrin James, Eteniene(hurt) or Tevin Coleman. I like my chances. 

Ok, those those are the ONLY guys that qualify according to your metrics?  Or are there others players?  You’ve done compressive research or just did some skimming?  
 

again, not coming down on you, just trying to understand fully.

[Shaw66]

16 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

Only if you've replied at least once to IronMaidenBills

Okay.  Am I done now?

[GunnerBill]

18 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

You describe very well what I see.   I don't see an explosive guy, but an extremely dependable guy on all three downs.  

 

It's what I see too. He does everything pretty well and and can run the power up the gut runs and he can threaten outside. The thing I really like about him is his patience. He is almost prime Lev Bell in his willingness to let things develop. But I don't see 4.39 speed on the field. He isn't slow by any means but he doesn't have that sudden explosion. 

[ddaryl]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

Okay.  Am I done now?

Are you sure, I think you got 1 more in you

[NewEra]

2 minutes ago, mrags said:

Just here now to add to this thread. Let’s go 100. 

[Milanos Milano]

3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Ok, those those are the ONLY guys that qualify according to your metrics?  Or are there others players?  You’ve done compressive research or just did some skimming?  
 

again, not coming down on you, just trying to understand fully.

I’ve gone through most of the RBs I can think of. I’m sure I might have missed a few, but if anyone finds one I’ve missed, feel free to post them. You can be as critical as you want, it’s good discussion. 

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

He’s on my metrics list. Amazing isn’t it. 

Edited April 28, 2022 by IronMaidenBills

[NewEra]

1 minute ago, IronMaidenBills said:

I’ve gone through most of the RBs I can think of. I’m sure I’ve might have missed a few, but if anyone finds one I’ve missed, feel free to post them. You can be as critical as you want, it’s good discussion. 

[Shaw66]

19 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Yes. You are either getting Barry Sanders, AP, JT, Edgerrin James, Eteniene(hurt) or Tevin Coleman. I like my chances. 

Wait.  You have figured this out.  If it is so clear, the guy is not lasting to 25.  Or 20.  He's gone in the top 10 picks. 

 

So, why did you start a thread that says the Bills should taken him at 25?   Let's take Jerry Rice at 25, also.   And maybe Orlando Pace.  They're all likely to be sitting there at 25, too.  

 

Either the NFL agrees with you, in which case he'll go in the top 10, or the NFL doesn't agree with you, in which case you are quite likely to be wrong.  

 

3 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

Are you sure, I think you got 1 more in you

Just posted it!

[NewEra]

2 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

I’ve gone through most of the RBs I can think of. I’m sure I might have missed a few, but if anyone finds one I’ve missed, feel free to post them. You can be as critical as you want, it’s good discussion. 

He’s on my metrics list. Amazing isn’t it. 

Is Joe Buscaglia’s prediction rating on your metrics list?

 

 

[Milanos Milano]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

Wait.  You have figured this out.  If it is so clear, the guy is not lasting to 25.  Or 20.  He's gone in the top 10 picks. 

 

So, why did you start a thread that says the Bills should taken him at 25?   Let's take Jerry Rice at 25, also.   And maybe Orlando Pace.  They're all likely to be sitting there at 25, too.  

 

Either the NFL agrees with you, in which case he'll go in the top 10, or the NFL doesn't agree with you, in which case you are quite likely to be wrong.  

 

Just posted it!

Well Jonathan Taylor is in my metric group and he got selected in the 2nd round. Sometimes the pros miss elite talent. 

[Bray Wyatt]

9 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Okay, I'll do my part.  The chances are NOT high that the Bills will get three great years out of this guy.   You simply cannot prove that, particularly when your proof is essentially one data point compared to one data point for a bunch of other guys.   

 

You may be right, but his probability of success is not nearly as high as you'd have us believe. 

 

I was in a discussion yesterday about Williamson.  Someone told me to watch a discussion of talking heads about how could he is.  They said top 4 in the draft, absolutely.  I looked at video of Williamson playing.   You know what I saw?   Sammy Watkins.  I don't care what measureables the guy has, nobody is going to convince me on stats that the guy is about to become an all-time great receiver.   And you are not going to convince on a stat that Hall is Edgerrin James.  

 

I watch the Hall highlights and ask myself this question:   Is this guy as good as Dalvin Cook?   To my eyes, no, and the guy is playing against Big 12 (or whatever conference) talent.  

 

 

 

I knew you were a team player! 😄

[Solomon Grundy]

7 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Okay.  Am I done now?

Me too!!

[Milanos Milano]

4 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Is Joe Buscaglia’s prediction rating on your metrics list?

 

 

Just because a RB isn’t on my metrics list doesn’t mean they can’t have a good pro career. I just want to take the high percentage of success based on my metric standard. 

Edited April 28, 2022 by IronMaidenBills

[NewEra]

Just now, IronMaidenBills said:

Just because a RB isn’t on my metrics list doesn’t mean they can’t have a good pro career. I just want to take the highway percentage of success based on my

metric standard. 

Is that on Joe B?

[Milanos Milano]

2 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Is that on Joe B?

I don’t know why you must get salty. All I’m doing is just pointing out the players that belong to an elite statistical club. 

[nucci]

1 hour ago, inaugural balls said:

I’m all for providing weapons to the offense - even at RB. Though using our 1st overall on one isn’t my cup of tea. 
 

Go Bills!!

yeah, but it's 25th so look at it as early 2nd rounder

[NewEra]

2 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

I don’t know why you must get salty. All I’m doing is just pointing out the players that belong to an elite statistical club. 

I’m not salty.  It’s just smack. 
 

Mike Rob is all about Kenneth Walker over Breece Hall.  

[Rochesterfan]

45 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

It’s a category where only the freakiest of athletes are found. Of course it’s going to be a small sample size. AP, JT, Edgerrin, and Sanders is great club to be in. Only Tevin Coleman is the outlier. 

Lol it would probably go unread or in the spam file haha. 

 

Is Tevin Coleman the outlier?

 

Darren McFadden was an average RB with what 2 1000 yard season - not great.

 

Jerrick McKinnon has done little.  4.4 40 time, upper 9 RAS, and 1800 yard season in college.

 

Reggie Bush not a great pro.

 

Matt Breida 4.38 40 time, upper 9 RAs and 2 1400+ yard college - never hit 1000 yards in NFL.

 

You listed a few greats, but I am only a small way through and there are a couple below average to Average RBs.  Not sure it is really 80% like you claim.

 

Plus most of your successful guys were older players at a time when they were unique and super special.  I will keep going through, but it does not look like it makes him a guaranteed success.

 

Matt Bredida might be a perfect comp for Hall.  More of a receiving threat.

 

I will keep looking at these, but many I am not sure I think Hall is the HOF you make him out to be.

 

 

 

Here are a few more names on the other side @NewEra.

 

 

Edited April 28, 2022 by Rochesterfan

[716er]

1 hour ago, IronMaidenBills said:

It’s not a large sample size.

 

It's statistically irrelevant, then. 

[Pabstblueribbon]

11 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Wait.  You have figured this out.  If it is so clear, the guy is not lasting to 25.  Or 20.  He's gone in the top 10 picks. 

 

Either the NFL agrees with you, in which case he'll go in the top 10, or the NFL doesn't agree with you, in which case you are quite likely to be wrong.  

 

 

It's a bit more nuanced than that imo. There is validity to the issue of rb positional worth of even a stud rb taken in early 1st round picks landing on an otherwise terrible team. If Buffalo picks Hall at 25 it will be based on the same mindset that made KC draft CEH. The logic is actually becoming more clear to me, if you agree that Hall has a high probability of becoming a special player.  

[Shaw66]

14 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Well Jonathan Taylor is in my metric group and he got selected in the 2nd round. Sometimes the pros miss elite talent. 

Yes, but you're telling us it is completely obvious that this guy will be a star.    Why would 32 teams miss it?   And if they ARE missing it, then it's not because of your metrics, because they have all the metrics.   If it's not because of the metrics, then there's no reason for us to believe he'll be great just because you say he'll be great.   

 

You're perfectly free to have the opinion you have, but your opinion is not some kind statistical certainty that you and only you can see.