The Price Of Keeping Dawson Knox

[atlbillsfan1975]

1 hour ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Every time I see a post like this I laugh.  Don't you think Knox is thinking the same thing & for that reason the only way he's signing is if he gets big $?  It's as if some people think that players don't consult their agents and the team can get away with a lowball offer.  Even if the player does sign, a low contract will cause problems if the player and his agent think they've exceeded his contract.  Remember, the Bills & Jason Peters reached an impasse that resulted in him being traded away just as he was approaching his prime years because they got away with a low contract-until they didn't.    

Who said low ball offer?! I laugh at people who read something and interpret it with their beliefs and not for the face value it was written. Fair Market Value. 

[klos63]

7 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

But the discussion is about Knox, who, in this his best season, was 15th in yards and 18th in catches

You forgot to mention he was 2nd in TD's.

 

He also has great value as a blocker.  You want a TE you can count on the block and catch , he can do both well.

[loyal2dagame]

1 hour ago, Robert Paulson said:

he has gotten better every year and this year he actually blocked a bit. if you can get him for  $12-15M/year ave i'd jump on it.

 

it is only going to go up 

That's crazy money.  What if he gets the dropsies again. Best to wait.  Half a season isn't gonna change the number.  But 12-15 mil per yr. No thanks

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

5 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

I don’t think this backing up the “Brinks truck” is what going to happen, unless we wait to long.  
 

 

 

I'll gladly back up the Brinks truck if Knox has a legit break out year like 80 receptions 1000 yards and 9 TD's. But I'm not sure about paying him somewhere around 10 million per year now on an extension just based on a break out year of 50 receptions 600 yards and 9 TD's. I would lean towards letting him play on his current deal next season unless he ends up only costing like 6 million a year. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Pay Knox. Best TE Bills have had since the AFL. Stop paying scrub special teams guys and give the money to the real stars. TEs take several years to develop. He is on the precipice of greatness. 

[Victory Formation]

Pay him.

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, klos63 said:

You forgot to mention he was 2nd in TD's.

 

He also has great value as a blocker.  You want a TE you can count on the block and catch , he can do both well.

I didn’t forget.  It was mentioned several times. Scroll up

[Don Otreply]

1 hour ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

I'll gladly back up the Brinks truck if Knox has a legit break out year like 80 receptions 1000 yards and 9 TD's. But I'm not sure about paying him somewhere around 10 million per year now on an extension just based on a break out year of 50 receptions 600 yards and 9 TD's. I would lean towards letting him play on his current deal next season unless he ends up only costing like 6 million a year. 

We stand to miss the boat on a really good TE when another team makes him an offer he can’t refuse, and the Bills have to start over again, that would be so very Billsey…, 

[YoloinOhio]

Life comes at you fast I guess

Probably will be working for Beane soon. Ink isn’t even dry on that Ian Thomas contract.

[MarlinTheMagician]

Love Knox and want us to sign him.  This is the year to draft a good tight end by rounds 3-4 so (i) can create mismatches with Knox on the field, (ii) give us a tiny bit of leverage in the Knox negotiations, and (iii) provide us some insurance in case Knox is showered with cash by a team that overpays and that Beane won't match. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

37 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Life comes at you fast I guess

Probably will be working for Beane soon. Ink isn’t even dry on that Ian Thomas contract.

I totally forgot they haven't replaced Schoen yet. This was probably in the works for a while.

[biggerdaddynj]

A couple of years ago, we’d be laughing about this.  Nice to be having a conversation about a player we developed (give credit where it’s due and vice versa).

Edited February 26, 2022 by biggerdaddynj

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

2 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

We stand to miss the boat on a really good TE when another team makes him an offer he can’t refuse, and the Bills have to start over again, that would be so very Billsey…, 

So the Bills won’t back up the Brinks truck then?  Bills can also always franchise tag him too as others have said. He’s had one average year. Yes he’s trending up but $10 million per year now seems a little premature. Let’s at least get a 80 catch 1,000 yard type of season.

[Thurman#1]

He's going to be very expensive. You have to pay him. He's a top-flight weapon for Josh.

 

I mean, there is probably a figure we wouldn't pay, but as long as everyone's reasonable, he should stay, and he should get a lot.

 

 

[JaCrispy]

41 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

He's going to be very expensive. You have to pay him. He's a top-flight weapon for Josh.

 

I mean, there is probably a figure we wouldn't pay, but as long as everyone's reasonable, he should stay, and he should get a lot.

 

 

I’m not so sure you have to pay Knox...there are some very good TE’s coming out this year, that can be had in the mid rounds- some with, potentially, higher ceilings than Knox...I’m not really concerned...

[CaptnCoke11]

I swear people want to go back to having a terrible team so they have more cap dollars for their stupid mock off seasons.  

[Doc Brown]

1 hour ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

So the Bills won’t back up the Brinks truck then?  Bills can also always franchise tag him too as others have said. He’s had one average year. Yes he’s trending up but $10 million per year now seems a little premature. Let’s at least get a 80 catch 1,000 yard type of season.

Then you're looking at Kelce/Kittle money.  At least 15 million a year.  Pry more adjusted for inflation. 

 

If you're Knox right now and Beane offers you a three year 29.5 million dollar extension (8m average annual for the next four years), do you take it?

[Thurman#1]

7 hours ago, klos63 said:

You forgot to mention he was 2nd in TD's.

 

He also has great value as a blocker.  You want a TE you can count on the block and catch , he can do both well.

 

Yes, it's really overlooked, but he was a significant part of the running game's major improvement. His blocking made a massive leap this year.

 

1 hour ago, JaCrispy said:

I’m not so sure you have to pay Knox...there are some very good TE’s coming out this year, that can be had in the mid rounds- some with, potentially, higher ceilings than Knox...I’m not really concerned...

 

 

Guess we'll have to disagree. Good TEs that can be had in the mid-rounds are guesses. Some might work out. Some might become as good as Knox. The odds are it would be most likely one or none. 

 

Knox at this point is a sure thing. And a guy who can both catch and block. Those guys don't grow on trees. And if your team is built around success in the pass game and your first priority is to make your QB comfortable and give him dangerous options - and that's the Bills - you don't give away a sure thing weapon for a maybe in a few years guy.

 

Not that I'd mind picking up one of those mid-round guys. That'd be great if he's BPA. Two TE offenses can make a really nice change. But I really don't see them getting rid of Knox, barring injury or some other problem. The guy is still on the way up.

 

 

Edited February 26, 2022 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

So the Bills won’t back up the Brinks truck then?  Bills can also always franchise tag him too as others have said. He’s had one average year. Yes he’s trending up but $10 million per year now seems a little premature. Let’s at least get a 80 catch 1,000 yard type of season.

 

 

"Average year?" No way. You look at his TDs, his blocking and how young he is and that year was in no way average. It was a very good year.

 

Good yards per catch, good catch percentage, for a third year guy.

 

And I'm with Doc Brown above. If he gets an 80 catch 1000 yard type of season he's going to get much more in a contract. And IMO he'll have that kind of season if he's targeted the way the TEs who have that kind of season are targeted.

 

 

Edited February 26, 2022 by Thurman#1

[JaCrispy]

27 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

Yes, it's really overlooked, but he was a significant part of the running game's major improvement. His blocking made a massive leap this year.

 

 

 

Guess we'll have to disagree. Good TEs that can be had in the mid-rounds are guesses. Some might work out. Some might become as good as Knox. The odds are it would be most likely one or none. 

 

Knox at this point is a sure thing. And a guy who can both catch and block. Those guys don't grow on trees. And if your team is built around success in the pass game and your first priority is to make your QB comfortable and give him dangerous options - and that's the Bills - you don't give away a sure thing weapon for a maybe in a few years guy.

 

Not that I'd mind picking up one of those mid-round guys. That'd be great if he's BPA. Two TE offenses can make a really nice change. But I really don't see them getting rid of Knox, barring injury or some other problem. The guy is still on the way up.

 

 

All good points...👍

[ALF]

Well he's here for a contract year and will go all out. If he progresses more , hope we can afford him.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

16 hours ago, Back2Buff said:

__________ is average to me.  Doesn't have great hands, and not overly big.  Also doesn't run great routes.

This view is something that has seemed popular on the board the last few years.  Every new TE to the team (whether by draft, trade, or FA) is hoped and hyped to be the Second Coming.  By the middle of the first season, a couple of bad drops and the mob says "give us Barabbas, if he's got good hands!"

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

All good points...👍

 

 

Really? That'd be a first for me. Better put that in the ol' scrapbook.

 

Thanks. I enjoy your posts, even when I don't agree.

[Beerball]

I'm extremely "meh" on Knox.  Some spectacular catches, some head shaking drops, but most importantly, some games where you don't know he's on the field.  

[Orlando Tim]

5 hours ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

I swear people want to go back to having a terrible team so they have more cap dollars for their stupid mock off seasons.  

This winning stuff is hard to get used to so back off😁

[What a Tuel]

5 hours ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

I swear people want to go back to having a terrible team so they have more cap dollars for their stupid mock off seasons.  

 

The talk about the cap preventing us from winning multiple super bowls when i just want one to start 😂

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

6 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Then you're looking at Kelce/Kittle money.  At least 15 million a year.  Pry more adjusted for inflation. 

 

If you're Knox right now and Beane offers you a three year 29.5 million dollar extension (8m average annual for the next four years), do you take it?

 

If I am Knox I absolutely take that. If i am the Bills i worry about the cap hit in the final two years of the deal if this last season ends up being Knox's best statistical season. 80 catches and 1000 yards is a BAD season for Kelce. It would be a career year by a country mile for Knox. Knox is going to need to go for around 100 and 1200 if he is to earn a 15+ million dollar deal i would think. 

 

I think people are letting the TD's cloud their judgment. I would have much prefeed a 80 catch 900 yard 4 TD season from Knox over his 50 600 yard 9 TD season. I'm not against a contract extension now. Just think it should be pretty favorable for the Bills side given Knox's lack of production in three years and his best statistic was TD's which isn't all that sustainable and often more a product of a good play call or scheme. 

[muppy]

21 hours ago, BuffaloBillies said:

 

A heartbreaking drama of a family torn apart by a troubled teen's lack of judgment and bad decisions.

They're willing to fight to keep the family together, but at what cost?

LOL this is perfect. Film at 11

 

....and as far as wether or not to pay the man Of Course Pay The Man! This guy has proven himself to me. Why create a hole that is being filled more than nicely by him already. Lets not go backwards people ya know?

 

plus who will I crush on if he leaves...........lol-m

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

6 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

"Average year?" No way. You look at his TDs, his blocking and how young he is and that year was in no way average. It was a very good year.YPC

 

 

 

For TE's he was 12th in receiving yards, 18th in receptions, 12th in YPC and tied for 1st in TD's. The TD's certainly put him over the top of average. But the other three metrics are very much in the range of average if we consider average to be 16th. 

 

I do agree it was a great year in the development of Knox. He took a huge jump. And if he takes a similar jump from year 3 to year 4 he'll be worth every penny on a new contract extension should he get one this off-season. I'm just uncertain he takes another huge jump. 

 

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

2 hours ago, Beerball said:

I'm extremely "meh" on Knox.  Some spectacular catches, some head shaking drops, but most importantly, some games where you don't know he's on the field.  

See, never should have let this guy get away.  You always knew when he was on the field.

[Doc]

15 hours ago, syhuang said:

The stat I replied to is definitely the one you brought up. In case you forgot, the stat I responded to is this one you wrote: "There were 15 TE's who caught 0ver 70% of their targets last year.  Knox wasn't one of them."

 

Anyway, the point is that stats are easy to manipulate to make the point people want to make.

 

You can also choose arbitrary thresholds like "70% of targets."  Knox was at 69%, big whoop.  But what does that mean when his drop% (which has more or less halved each season in the league) was just 5.6?

 

And funny how TDs weren't mentioned, but in college, his lack of them was such a huge deal.

[RochesterLifer]

The comments I read (including Siran Neal) about NOT paying our players crack me up. Some on this board want 22 All Pros playing on rookie contacts. Beane has built a solid draft, development and pay program and the Bills team is constructed for long term success. Knox showed is his ceiling from day one. Since, he has steadily and consistently improved toward reaching that ceiling. Lock him up. I am sure Beane will find the number that works for the team and the player.

 

Good signing with Neal. Good signing last year with Dawkins, Tre, Josh and Taron Johnson. Now it is Knox's time. We now have been a top AFC team for two years and will be for the foreseeable future. The plan is working.

[Dopey]

22 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

But the discussion is about Knox, who, in this his best season, was 15th in yards and 18th in catches

Guess you think he's done progressing. He went to the TE University last year and graduated. He's going back to get his Master's this summer.

[klos63]

13 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

I didn’t forget.  It was mentioned several times. Scroll up

Nah, I'll take your word on it. This is what happens when I don't read the entire thread.

10 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

So the Bills won’t back up the Brinks truck then?  Bills can also always franchise tag him too as others have said. He’s had one average year. Yes he’s trending up but $10 million per year now seems a little premature. Let’s at least get a 80 catch 1,000 yard type of season.

He's a key player in one of the most dynamic offenses in the league.  We're not going to have Diggs, Davis, and Knox all getting 1000 yard seasons, it really doesn't happen like that. He should be signed.

[klos63]

13 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

We stand to miss the boat on a really good TE when another team makes him an offer he can’t refuse, and the Bills have to start over again, that would be so very Billsey…, 

You're correct, fans need to stop worrying about the money. Let the team do that.  Some don't want to pay our starting TE, starting center, slot receiver... who are we going to replace these guys with? mid round draft picks to save money.

I think Knox is a no brainer for Beane.

[Buffalosouth]

The sooner he gets his next deal the better it's going to be for the team. I don't see him going anywhere unless he demands to be the highest paid TE in the league. 

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

1 hour ago, RochesterLifer said:

The comments I read (including Siran Neal) about NOT paying our players crack me up. Some on this board want 22 All Pros playing on rookie contacts. Beane has built a solid draft, development and pay program and the Bills team is constructed for long term success. Knox showed is his ceiling from day one. Since, he has steadily and consistently improved toward reaching that ceiling. Lock him up. I am sure Beane will find the number that works for the team and the player.

 

Good signing with Neal. Good signing last year with Dawkins, Tre, Josh and Taron Johnson. Now it is Knox's time. We now have been a top AFC team for two years and will be for the foreseeable future. The plan is working.

Buffalo Bills fans are cheap.

[Mr. WEO]

15 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

We stand to miss the boat on a really good TE when another team makes him an offer he can’t refuse, and the Bills have to start over again, that would be so very Billsey…, 

 

If he has that great a year in 2022 to warrant such a huge offer from another team, the Bills will simply match it.  Why wouldn't they?

[Don Otreply]

35 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

If he has that great a year in 2022 to warrant such a huge offer from another team, the Bills will simply match it.  Why wouldn't they?

Could go either way, depends on the circumstances at that time, ya roll the dice, ya take your chances, 

[Mr. WEO]

17 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

Could go either way, depends on the circumstances at that time, ya roll the dice, ya take your chances, 

 

Bills go to the AFCC or SB, he's not going to another team for thew same money....no chance