How many years can Josh be an Elite QB with his playing style?

[without a drought]

He'll be lucky to make it through the preseason next year, time to face the reality that the window has closed.

 

I can see the Bills taking a FB in the first. 

 

Once the running game is going, they won't even need him. 

[Mr. WEO]

true style is timeless

[Rocky Landing]

I can't really vote in this poll. Josh Allen's playing style has evolved every year. Why would his evolution stop now? In 2037, it's unlikely he's going to be hurdling linebackers. But, why would his play just stagnate between now, and then? My conjecture: He'll be a slightly different QB next season (as he is a slightly different QB from last season), he'll be a very different QB ten years from now, and he'll be great until he retires.

 

 

 

Edited February 5, 2022 by Rocky Landing

[NewEra]

I’d like to see him with under 100 carries per regular season.  Less designed runs and more scrambles.  80ish carries per year in the regular season, plus another 40-60 in each post season 😂.  

[Rocky Landing]

27 minutes ago, without a drought said:

He'll be lucky to make it through the preseason next year, time to face the reality that the window has closed.

 

I can see the Bills taking a FB in the first. 

 

Once the running game is going, they won't even need him. 

@FilthyBeast agrees with you.

[Mij yllek]

approx. 22 years...take away his running and the offense becomes critically diminished.

 

[Buffalo Boy]

37 minutes ago, MJS said:

For Cam the specific issue with his shoulder is not an accumulation of hits as a running QB. He got his shoulder torn up from one hit, then later injured it again. These were specific events in his career, not an accumulation of lots of hits while outside the pocket.

 

Cam's shoulder injuries happened when he was in the pocket. Many of his hits to the head also happened when he was in the pocket. Refs were not protecting him like other QBs, even when he was in the pocket.

   As the Bills sucked and I live in Charlotte , I watched a ton of Panthers  . Loved me some Cam and their D was also fun to watch ( Kuechly and Davis especially)

   A couple of Cam’s angry runs we have all seen but he was taking hits like this often. Almost every game ( often multiple times per game) in the Shula OC era. He takes a nasty hit on his throwing shoulder in this vid. 
    The more you put yourself in a situation to get hit, the more you get hit. Hits like this are cumulative. Inflammation, micro tears ( often called strains and sprains) , bruises to bone, tendon and ligament wear. 
    All injuries are attributed to specific plays. That doesn’t negate previous hits which weaken the system prior to catastrophic failure.

    Josh does not need to run the ball on designed runs as a staple of our rushing attack. We need a running back to do that.

[ExiledInIllinois]

As long as Elway.  Probably more.

 

[BillsFan619]

8 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Josh Allen has now been an Elite QB for 2 years. He's going to be 26 by next season.

 

I love him. He can have my babies... and I'm a dude.

 

Regardless, even though he sure as hell seems like Superman... he's not. 

 

I watch Josh Allen and firmly believe this team will win multiple Super Bowls with him as our QB regardless, but how long will he last playing the way he has played the last 2 years? I say 2 years because I think these last 2 years were about the sweet spot of the run/pass ratio.

 

So what do you guys think about how long he can last with this playing style?

 

And for some references as far as some notable "running" QBs compared with JA over the career and 2020-2021 run% of total QB plays.

 

Josh Allen (4 years): 21.1% (but it's been 27.8% the last 2 years)

Russell Wilson (10 year): 17.9%

Mike Vick (13 years with 2 year hiatus): 27.1%

Cam Newton (11 years): 25%

Steve Young (15 years): 17.4%

Randall Cunningham (16 years): 18%

Lamar Jackson (4 years): 46.3%

John Elway (16 years): 10.7%

Rg3 (7 years): 24.2%

 

 

I look at all of this and wonder if our Super Bowl window without adjustment is 5 years. I don't think this will be a huge problem because he's smart and is incredibly well built physically.

 

Still makes you wonder if he will last til he's 40.

 

While I hope he can go longer, a strong 15 year career out of JA would be awesome and obtainable IMO.

 

It would surprisingly be 4-5 more years than JK.

Edited February 5, 2022 by BillsFan619

[MJS]

24 minutes ago, Buffalo Boy said:

   As the Bills sucked and I live in Charlotte , I watched a ton of Panthers  . Loved me some Cam and their D was also fun to watch ( Kuechly and Davis especially)

   A couple of Cam’s angry runs we have all seen but he was taking hits like this often. Almost every game ( often multiple times per game) in the Shula OC era. He takes a nasty hit on his throwing shoulder in this vid. 
    The more you put yourself in a situation to get hit, the more you get hit. Hits like this are cumulative. Inflammation, micro tears ( often called strains and sprains) , bruises to bone, tendon and ligament wear. 
    All injuries are attributed to specific plays. That doesn’t negate previous hits which weaken the system prior to catastrophic failure.

    Josh does not need to run the ball on designed runs as a staple of our rushing attack. We need a running back to do that.

So you are speculating that he would not have torn his shoulder if he had not accumulated hits in previous games?

 

I think that is impossible to determine.

[harryS]

I'm hoping he can last as long as Big Ben did as an elite QB and hopefully we can win two titles.  The problem is the coaching in the NFL has gotten a lot better and I don't know if you can make Cowher and Tomlin-like gameday mistakes and still win the two trophies.  Josh's body isn't the the threat to Buffalo finally winning a Super Bowl.  McD's brain is.

[Don Otreply]

I would think, ten years or less, sooner or later some DB is gonna clean his clock so to speak, then again he may have the uncanny ability to avoid injury causing hits for the next decade plus, one can only hope…

 

Go Bills!!!

[ToGoGo]

55 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

I can't really vote in this poll. Josh Allen's playing style has evolved every year. Why would his evolution stop now? In 2037, it's unlikely he's going to be hurdling linebackers. But, why would his play just stagnate between now, and then? My conjecture: He'll be a slightly different QB next season (as he is a slightly different QB from last season), he'll be a very different QB ten years from now, and he'll be great until he retires.

 

 

 

 

Agree with this. Like all great veteran QBs, the team's focus will shift to the O-line and offensive weapons. 

 

Josh will be more and more protected as he gets older. The "do it all yourself" mentality will decrease over time. Another poster mentioned that unlike Lamar Jackson or Cam Newton, Allen is a great passer and not just runner. So he will evolve. No doubt about it.

 

I believe that evolution starts with Dorsey. The reason being, Allen has more say now. If Allen wants to throw bombs instead of running RPOs, I believe Allen now has the sway to make that audible. Daboll had too much power since he was there from the beginning with Josh. 

[Nextmanup]

I voted 5 b/c that was the choice---and 10 years is too long IMO.

 

He will NOT be performing in this way and at this level for ten more years--his body won't hold up that long IMO.

 

He'll also lose a step at some point.  

 

We still have a bunch of time.

The reality is probably more than 5, but less than 10 IMO.

 

 

[klos63]

While he takes more hits than most QB's because of his running, he doesn't initiate the hits like Cam did, i think that did him in, and he doesn't really take hard hits. Hopefully, he continues to get better at avoiding the big hits.

He's different than most QBs that run, like Jordan Palmer said, he's the greatest athlete to play QB. That will make him stand out above the others.

[Freddie's Dead]

*****in' Forever!!!!!

[QB Bills]

It's been proven that running QBs, if you even want to classify Allen as one, do not get hurt at a higher rate than stationary QBs. I think the increased risk of injury getting tackled in the open field as a runner is offset by escapabilty in the pocket.

 

It's really just the luck of the draw and impossible to say how long he'll stay healthy at this point. All it takes is one misstep or flukey hit.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Josh Allen has now been an Elite QB for 2 years. He's going to be 26 by next season.

 

I love him. He can have my babies... and I'm a dude.

 

Regardless, even though he sure as hell seems like Superman... he's not. 

 

I watch Josh Allen and firmly believe this team will win multiple Super Bowls with him as our QB regardless, but how long will he last playing the way he has played the last 2 years? I say 2 years because I think these last 2 years were about the sweet spot of the run/pass ratio.

 

So what do you guys think about how long he can last with this playing style?

 

And for some references as far as some notable "running" QBs compared with JA over the career and 2020-2021 run% of total QB plays.

 

Josh Allen (4 years): 21.1% (but it's been 27.8% the last 2 years)

Russell Wilson (10 year): 17.9%

Mike Vick (13 years with 2 year hiatus): 27.1%

Cam Newton (11 years): 25%

Steve Young (15 years): 17.4%

Randall Cunningham (16 years): 18%

Lamar Jackson (4 years): 46.3%

John Elway (16 years): 10.7%

Rg3 (7 years): 24.2%

 

 

I look at all of this and wonder if our Super Bowl window without adjustment is 5 years. I don't think this will be a huge problem because he's smart and is incredibly well built physically.

 

Still makes you wonder if he will last til he's 40.

 

 

You'd be having the babies, Son

 

I'm curious where you sourced (or how you calculated) this data?

 

I just looked quickly at the last 2 years on pro-football-reference.com, and when I take Allen rush attempts/(rush attempts plus pass attempts)*100 I get:

2021: 22.7%

2020: 19.9%

 

Which can not average to "27.8% over the last 2 years", so it makes me wonder about your overall numbers.

 

That's not to take away from your overall point, which is that running as much as Josh does, and in the style that he does (taking on contact, stiff-arming dudes) is going to keep putting a lot of wear and tear on him.

 

Beane clearly acknowledged this in his end of year presser.   (It's about 38:50 if you want to listen) It was part of questions about Mitch Trubisky and backup QB.  Beane said he's up there screaming for Josh to get down, that he doesn't ever get on to Josh for throwing interceptions or fumbles, the only time he gets on him is for taking unnecessary hits.  He said "that's his playstyle, that's why we love him, but a backup QB is very important knowing the way he plays the game".  In response to the next question, he said that Josh likes to run the ball, he enjoys it, "I think it gets him lathered up" "he's a linebacker playing QB, that's his mentality.  I want him to get down, he wants to run over somebody"  He said "he's improved" 😄

 

Beane also said about the OL that "it starts with protecting Josh" and that "part of protecting Josh is the run game"

 

I think that Josh reportedly does a lot of things right - he mentioned after the "Josh Allen is Gumby" hit he took from Bosa in the Chargers game, that he is working with trainers in Cali and on the Bills staff to "make sure he is flexible but still strong".  BangedupBills on that hit observed that Josh had good hip flexibility and that likely protected his knee ligaments in that hit (I think I have that right).  Probably flexibility is a reason his toe sprain put him in injury report for a week instead of taking him out for several weeks.  But these things do accumulate and take a toll, and while flexibility helps, it's overall luck that it hasn't been pushed too far.

 

Jim Kubiak, who analyzes Allen for TBN put it bluntly, something like (paraphrase) "Is Josh Allen the best running back on the Buffalo Bills?  If so, why?  And if not, why is he being used that way?"

 

I will make a counter-point that I think Josh is more in control when he runs, than at times in the pocket.  Overall, I think there are data out there showing that running QB do not get injured more when they run, than they do when they're in the pocket.  Maybe someone will provide it.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

18 minutes ago, klos63 said:

While he takes more hits than most QB's because of his running, he doesn't initiate the hits like Cam did

 

Are you freakin' kidding me?  Beane disagrees with you and so do my eyeballs.

 

I do think over the last 3 years, Josh is working to get down or get out of bounds more and initiate contact less, but he absolutely initiates hits at times.

 

Hopefully Beane learned something from how Cam was handled on the Panthers, and will try to invest more in the OL and the skill positions than the Panthers did.

 

 

 

[dhgold]

IMO, the Bills have to significantly reduce the number of JA's regular season designed runs.

[Boatdrinks]

Voted for ten years, but given your choices I took it to mean ten more years. 

[Nextmanup]

34 minutes ago, klos63 said:

While he takes more hits than most QB's because of his running, he doesn't initiate the hits like Cam did, i think that did him in, and he doesn't really take hard hits. Hopefully, he continues to get better at avoiding the big hits.

He's different than most QBs that run, like Jordan Palmer said, he's the greatest athlete to play QB. That will make him stand out above the others.

He takes some big hits now and again.  He often initiates hits too!  He will often choose to slam into a defender as opposed to some other option.

 

But it's not about his body breaking down over time from being hit!  He will just naturally slow down as all athletes do with aging and his current "full service" game will go away at some point.  Or at least will diminish.

 

As I said up thread, I think he has more than 5 years at peak Josh, but less than 10.

I can't imagine him playing to this level when he's 35 years old.  Not with the running component at least.

 

 

 

 

[loyal2dagame]

If he stays injury free,  a looooong time.

 

See John Elway

Edited February 5, 2022 by loyal2dagame

[Warcodered]

3 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

[pssst! Hey, bud, wanna get high on some ‘JoshAllen’? Better’n coke, Snack ‘n Ex combined! You won’t come down til Tuesday!

 

 

[NastyNateSoldiers]

10 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Josh Allen has now been an Elite QB for 2 years. He's going to be 26 by next season.

 

I love him. He can have my babies... and I'm a dude.

 

Regardless, even though he sure as hell seems like Superman... he's not. 

 

I watch Josh Allen and firmly believe this team will win multiple Super Bowls with him as our QB regardless, but how long will he last playing the way he has played the last 2 years? I say 2 years because I think these last 2 years were about the sweet spot of the run/pass ratio.

 

So what do you guys think about how long he can last with this playing style?

 

And for some references as far as some notable "running" QBs compared with JA over the career and 2020-2021 run% of total QB plays.

 

Josh Allen (4 years): 21.1% (but it's been 27.8% the last 2 years)

Russell Wilson (10 year): 17.9%

Mike Vick (13 years with 2 year hiatus): 27.1%

Cam Newton (11 years): 25%

Steve Young (15 years): 17.4%

Randall Cunningham (16 years): 18%

Lamar Jackson (4 years): 46.3%

John Elway (16 years): 10.7%

Rg3 (7 years): 24.2%

 

 

I look at all of this and wonder if our Super Bowl window without adjustment is 5 years. I don't think this will be a huge problem because he's smart and is incredibly well built physically.

 

Still makes you wonder if he will last til he's 40.

 

I think they need to stop calling designed QB runs unless it’s a huge game in playoffs or Super Bowl or division clinching game. No more called designed runs during season basically. Only let him run on scrambles because that’s when he can find open lanes and protect himself by sliding.

 

If we keep using Josh the way we do he won’t last past 33yrs old.

[Buffalo716]

10 hours ago, QCity said:

 

 

Running quarterbacks don't last. They don't. No amount of homer wishful thinking is going to change that. Running backs don't last in this league. Pretending that RG3 lasted 7 years is delusional. Dorsey needs to fix the running game or we'll be talking about Josh lasting until he's 30, not 40.

That's not all true because there's never been a quarterback like Josh 

 

None of these running quarterbacks could throw like Josh or were physically built like him

 

Both of those give him the advantage.. he's much much bigger then Michael Vick or Randall Cunningham or RG3.. he's a much better thrower of the football too 

 

You bring up running backs.. the cliff for running backs is usually considered 2,000 carries... That's when they fall off

 

Josh is at 400.. he literally has 15 years before he would ever even get close to hitting that number

 

Sure Josh is a good runner so he does run .. he doesn't run as much as running backs.. and he's not taking as much as a beating 

 

Besides the league has never seen a player like Josh Allen.. he will be the mold that other teams are looking for

 

 

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

10 hours ago, QCity said:

 

 

Running quarterbacks don't last. They don't. No amount of homer wishful thinking is going to change that. Running backs don't last in this league. Pretending that RG3 lasted 7 years is delusional. Dorsey needs to fix the running game or we'll be talking about Josh lasting until he's 30, not 40.

 

What's gotta help Josh at least a bit is his physique. None of the running QBs I can think of other than Cam Newton are big and strong like him. He said in an interview a few weeks ago he's playing at 245.

 

Now yes, Newton is essentially outta the league, but ironically it's because he basically has a dead arm and has lost any passing ability he once had. He's still a pretty excellent runner even at 32 and as far as I can recall he hasn't been too injury ridden over his career (if at all...?) while running.

 

Generally Josh's running style also doesn't lend itself as much to the dreaded non-contact ACL/MCL tears like Lamar or Rg3. 

[BringBackFlutie]

4 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

[pssst! Hey, bud, wanna get high on some ‘JoshAllen’? Better’n coke, Snack ‘n Ex combined! You won’t come down til Tuesday!

 

 

What stands out to me is that even with his regular season "slump" this year, he made even more spectacular plays.

[Buffalo716]

2 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

What's gotta help Josh at least a bit is his physique. None of the running QBs I can think of other than Cam Newton are big and strong like him. He said in an interview a few weeks ago he's playing at 245.

 

Now yes, Newton is essentially outta the league, but ironically it's because he basically has a dead arm and has lost any passing ability he once had. He's still a pretty excellent runner even at 32 and as far as I can recall he hasn't been too injury ridden over his career (if at all...?) while running.

 

Generally Josh's running style also doesn't lend itself as much to the dreaded non-contact ACL/MCL tears like Lamar or Rg3. 

Yep exactly 

 

Cam's issue is not his running ability.. it's he has a dead arm 

 

Physically Josh is built like Tim Tebow.. who was also a powerful runner in the NFL .. he just couldn't throw a football

 

Josh can run like Tim Tebow and throw a football like John elway.. I've been saying it for 2 years he is the most dynamic player in the league and basically there isn't a game plan to stop him yet

[klos63]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Are you freakin' kidding me?  Beane disagrees with you and so do my eyeballs.

 

I do think over the last 3 years, Josh is working to get down or get out of bounds more and initiate contact less, but he absolutely initiates hits at times.

 

Hopefully Beane learned something from how Cam was handled on the Panthers, and will try to invest more in the OL and the skill positions than the Panthers did.

 

 

 

I said he doesn't initiate hits like Cam, you said he 'absolutely initiates hits at times' - that doesn't counter my statement.  Cam would try to run through defenders, Allen doesn't do that.

[bigK14094]

Josh needs to adjust with the help of his OC.   No designed runs except in deep run playoff games.  He will learn this stype progressively, it won't  come overnight.  Hihs receivers need to be on their game to help his succeed at that more classic QB role.  He has the arm to be a classic drop back type imho.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

41 minutes ago, klos63 said:

I said he doesn't initiate hits like Cam, you said he 'absolutely initiates hits at times' - that doesn't counter my statement.  Cam would try to run through defenders, Allen doesn't do that.

 

*blink* are we watching the same games?  This isn't exhaustive, it's just a quick Youtube grab

2020

2021 (3:29 if link doesn't timestamp correctly)

Division playoff

 

 

Those are just a few notable ones, but there were others this season.

 

As Beane himself noted, "I want him to get down, he wants to run someone over....he's a QB with the mentality of a linebacker"

Beane doesn't say that if Allen doesn't truck people

 

Now whether he trucks people as much as Cam did...can't tell you that.  But he absolutely tries to run people over at times.

[BringBackFlutie]

27 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

He absolutely does at times…. He injured one of KCs corners by doing exactly that.

True.  I was a little confused by that post.  Sure Allen gets down and out of the way more than Cam, but when he knows he needs another yard, he not only stays up, but he punishes whoever tries to tackle him.  Didn't he stiff arm a linebacker out of bounds after a run?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, BringBackFlutie said:

True.  I was a little confused by that post.  Sure Allen gets down and out of the way more than Cam, but when he knows he needs another yard, he not only stays up, but he punishes whoever tries to tackle him.  Didn't he stiff arm a linebacker out of bounds after a run?

 

He stiff arms guys on a regular basis. 

The 2nd clip I showed above, Allen "tow-trucked" a would be tackler, basically hauling him down after himself as he went out of bounds. 3:29 in.

 

Beane says he's improving, but he still tries to run over guys.  Again, can't comment on how often vs how often Newton did it, didn't make a study.

[klos63]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

He stiff arms guys on a regular basis. 

The 2nd clip I showed above, Allen "tow-trucked" a would be tackler, basically hauling him down after himself as he went out of bounds. 3:29 in.

 

Beane says he's improving, but he still tries to run over guys.  Again, can't comment on how often vs how often Newton did it, didn't make a study.

Not interested in arguing with you, but my point was that he didn't do it as often as Cam. I don't expect you to make a study, but then you probably shouldn't just dismiss my comment if you don't really know. You're making this something it isn't. I never said he doesn't, just said not as much, as I think this is what hurt Cam's career more than anything.  That's all.

[Buffalo Boy]

3 hours ago, MJS said:

So you are speculating that he would not have torn his shoulder if he had not accumulated hits in previous games?

 

I think that is impossible to determine.

    So, running backs last as long as other players?

   Come on Brother. More hits are not a good thing for a franchise QB. 

[transplantbillsfan]

9 hours ago, HOUSE said:

Its a good question but impossible to answer. He won't he hopping linebackers at 35

 

You sure about that?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Now yes, Newton is essentially outta the league, but ironically it's because he basically has a dead arm and has lost any passing ability he once had. He's still a pretty excellent runner even at 32 and as far as I can recall he hasn't been too injury ridden over his career (if at all...?) while running.

 

I may be "out of the loop" but wasn't it felt that Cam's shoulder injuries were initiated and aggrevated by lowering his shoulder on runs?

 

I could be completely wrong

[bigduke6]

Steve Young was a pretty good running QB,  until he got smashed in the head a coupla times and couldnt play anymore.

 

every player is one injury away from the end.  depends on the injury.    

 

for longevities sake,  he'll have to give up the physical stuff,  sooner rather than later.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

26 minutes ago, klos63 said:

Not interested in arguing with you,

 

Then WTF are you down with here

 

26 minutes ago, klos63 said:

but my point was that he didn't do it as often as Cam.

 

Incorrect.  You started  out saying this:

3 hours ago, klos63 said:

While he takes more hits than most QB's because of his running, he doesn't initiate the hits like Cam did

 

Nothing about how often.  Just that Josh doesn't initiate hits like Cam did.  I pointed out that is not true, Josh does initiate hits.

 

Then you went to this:

1 hour ago, klos63 said:

I said he doesn't initiate hits like Cam, you said he 'absolutely initiates hits at times' - that doesn't counter my statement.  Cam would try to run through defenders, Allen doesn't do that.

 

I point out that Allen absolutely tries to run through defenders at times, as well as stiff-arming them and tow-trucking them.  I gave examples.

 

Now you claim your point was "he didn't do it as often as Cam" when in fact, that wasn't a point you made in either of the posts I responded to, but rather a caveat I volunteered.

 

26 minutes ago, klos63 said:

I don't expect you to make a study, but then you probably shouldn't just dismiss my comment if you don't really know. You're making this something it isn't. I never said he doesn't, just said not as much, as I think this is what hurt Cam's career more than anything.  That's all.

 

It's highly disingenuous to say something, have it countered, and then attack the person who is debating with you and claim they're arguing a point you "never said" when in fact, they're disputing your exact words, correctly quoted.

 

I normally respect you as a poster, but this ain't right.  At the very least, acknowledge you didn't write in a way that made your intended point very clearly, if your intended point was "oh yeah, actually Allen does do both, just not as much"

 

Allen absolutely initiates contact and runs people over.  Beane knows it.  Beane talks about getting on Allen's case about it, presumably because he's well aware of its potential to shorten or dampen Allen's career, so hopefully Allen will continue to curtail that aspect of his game.  That's all.