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Buffalo vs New England Wildcard Game: 8:15 PM Saturday Night


transplantbillsfan

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I think Allen runs like a maniac on Saturday night.  It's just easier to take the 5-7 yard run and slide over throwing a 90mph fastball to a guy 7 yards away in traffic when it's 2 degrees out.  Josh held back this past weekend, but id bank on 15+ carries.  He just needs to make sure not to absorb big hits if possible.  The frozen ball will pop out of there easier and NE is really physical. 

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I played WR and our QB was an All American and signed with Tennessee when they were a powerhouse.  His scouting report was "accurate but average arm strength".

 

I remember the ball hurting my hands even in the summer.  I can't imagine catching a ball from Allen at zero degrees.  I wouldn't be shocked if it took a finger off.  I'm sure Beasley would figure how to play with 9 fingers.  

Edited by Royale with Cheese
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Just now, Royale with Cheese said:

I played WR and our QB was an All American and signed with Tennessee when they were a powerhouse.

 

I remember the ball hurting my hands even in the summer.  I can't imagine catching a ball from Allen at zero degrees.  I wouldn't be shocked if it took a finger off.  I'm sure Beasley would figure how to play with 9 fingers.  

 

Yeah for sure going to have to use those hand warmers lot more often if that cold. May see some with gloves that don't normally wear them

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2 hours ago, Sheneneh Jenkins said:

I have to know....for those here that wanted Pats to beat Colts a few weeks back (mind boggling)....looking back do feel any different??

 

I have not at all forgot about those wanting this. Matter of fact it has literally popped in my mind each and every single day at least once since that day. Probably because it is the 1st time I ever heard of/seen a Bills fan root for a division rival (not just the Pats). 

 

Just curious if those posters feel any different? @GunnerBill

 

Nope. Haven't changed my mind. My priority was the Bills getting in the dance. A Colts loss was the best way of protecting that. Made no real difference in the end. We'd have won the division even if the Pats had won that game all other things remaining unchanged. Only change would be our route would be Raiders and then Titans which I might actually prefer. But ho hum. 

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2 hours ago, Dont Stop Billeiving said:

Per Mike Sando of The Athletic:

 

"Most wins against teams that finished above .500:

 

8: Titans

7: Chiefs, Bucs

6: Bills, Raiders

5: Colts, Packers, Saints, Cardinals, Cowboys, Chargers, Dolphins."

 

Very interesting stat I hadn't seen before and with two main takeaways in my eyes:

 

1) The Bills tied for the third-most wins against plus .500 teams across the whole NFL...seems to conflict with the narrative that we had a cupcake schedule and never played anyone good. I'm definitely not saying it was a tough schedule, but I think the slate of opponents looked like the easiest list we had faced in years before the season started and then they wound up looking a bit stronger as the season went on. 

 

2) No Patriots on that list despite the fact that they faced an even easier schedule than we did. 

This is wrong. We beat not 6, but only 5 those teams: Dolphins 2x, Pats, Chiefs and Saints.

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34 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Nope. Haven't changed my mind. My priority was the Bills getting in the dance. A Colts loss was the best way of protecting that. Made no real difference in the end. We'd have won the division even if the Pats had won that game all other things remaining unchanged. Only change would be our route would be Raiders and then Titans which I might actually prefer. But ho hum. 

Well that's kind of what I'm getting at. No clue how things would have turned out, if Pats had won it could have changed momentum and winning the games they lost. Not knowing what and how much would have changed....you stand by what you said and rather wanting Pat win vs Colts and Bills not having control of their own destiny winning division and getting home game thus putting Bills at 6th or 7th seed IF still making it in??

 

Well I was just curious because I can't wrap  my head around it at all. I noticed in another thread you stated your fandom began around 2002? Not sure but if that is correct, then that may be a reason why it's not that much of an issue to you.

 

See years upon years ago a good while before 2002 when your interest began, Bills and Division rivalry was a very serious thing that rose to the point of hatred, especially with Fins in those days, more serious that the Brady era. Lol, some would try and pick a fight with you if anyone said they rooted for a division rival. Lol,

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, eball said:

 

Well, those numbers have changed to 64% and 72%, so there are apparently a lot of dumb whales betting the Bills.  I'm still curious as to why the line isn't moving in that direction.

 

Quite simply, it's because your method is not a reliable way to predict line movement.  In fact, it will usually predict opposite of what is right.  Would you be willing to share what odds screen you are looking at?  For example, here's what I'm seeing:

 

Qvd4p2E.png

 

You'll notice that the bigger money is all on the Bengals, Bills, and Bucs, and yet in all three cases, the line has moved towards the Raiders, Pats, and Eagles.

 

Why would that be?  Well, the following quote explains where you're going wrong:

 

2 hours ago, eball said:

 

Well, those numbers have changed to 64% and 72%, so there are apparently a lot of dumb whales betting the Bills.

 

You say that sarcastically but it's the actual truth!  Would it be so surprising to believe that most of the big-money bettors are whales dropping $10,000+ on the favorites alongside regular Joe Sixpack and his $50 bets?

 

The flaw in your analysis is that you believe most big-money bettors are sharps.  They're not, and that's why the lines are moving backwards from where you would predict them to move.  The sharps are on the dogs, as they tend to be.

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4 minutes ago, harryS said:

 

Quite simply, it's because your method is not a reliable way to predict line movement.  In fact, it will usually predict opposite of what is right.  Would you be willing to share what odds screen you are looking at?  For example, here's what I'm seeing:

 

Qvd4p2E.png

 

You'll notice that the bigger money is all on the Bengals, Bills, and Bucs, and yet in all three cases, the line has moved towards the Raiders, Pats, and Eagles.

 

Why would that be?  Well, the following quote explains where you're going wrong:

 

 

You say that sarcastically but it's the actual truth!  Would it be so surprisingly to believe that most of the big-money bettors are dropping $10,000+ on the favorites alongside regular Joe Sixpack and his $50 bets?

 

The flaw in your analysis is that you believe most big-money bettors are sharps.  They're not, and that's why the lines are moving backwards from where you would predict them to move.

 

So which way are the sharps going?

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24 minutes ago, Sheneneh Jenkins said:

Well that's kind of what I'm getting at. No clue how things would have turned out, if Pats had won it could have changed momentum and winning the games they lost. Not knowing what and how much would have changed....you stand by what you said and rather wanting Pat win vs Colts and Bills not having control of their own destiny winning division and getting home game thus putting Bills at 6th or 7th seed IF still making it in??

 

Well I was just curious because I can't wrap  my head around it at all. I noticed in another thread you stated your fandom began around 2002? Not sure but if that is correct, then that may be a reason why it's not that much of an issue to you.

 

See years upon years ago a good while before 2002 when your interest began, Bills and Division rivalry was a very serious thing that rose to the point of hatred, especially with Fins in those days, more serious that the Brady era. Lol, some would try and pick a fight with you if anyone said they rooted for a division rival. Lol,

 

 

It is fair to say I don't care as much about division rivalries as US based fans who go to games do. I still dislike the Patriots but I have rooted for them in two Superbowls when they have played the one team in the NFL I really do despise. But I maintain the reasons I gave then - for THIS Bills squad it was just get in the dance. Whether that is as the #2 or the #7 mattered less to me. This team can beat anyone and lose to anyone. I just wanted them to get a shot. When we might have been needing a wildcard then getting wildcard rivals beat was my priority. 

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1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

Nice that they will be practicing outside tomorrow in 30 degree weather when it will be close to 0 on Saturday night…. I’m guessing the Pats are practicing outside all week. 

 

LOL, why Scott, why do you always have to do this? 

Just to even things out, Foxborough weather the next 2 days is in the 40s.

Now if BB flew them to Qaanaaq (Thule) Greenland you might just have something here.

 

FYI, I'm sure there are plenty of seats available on the Patriots bandwagon with many upgrades coming soon.

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15 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Nice that they will be practicing outside tomorrow in 30 degree weather when it will be close to 0 on Saturday night…. I’m guessing the Pats are practicing outside all week. 

hope so, after today high 30s-40 in Beantown til SAT

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One thing I've noticed about Pats fans - their rooting interests these days lie much more in seeing the misery of other fanbases, as opposed to enjoying their own success.

 

Maybe that happens after you win so much. But man, have I seen a lot of sentiments along the lines of just wanting to win to stick it to Bills fans, who they think have gotten "cocky."

 

Self-awareness doesn't seem to really be a thing w/ that crew.

 

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12 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It is fair to say I don't care as much about division rivalries as US based fans who go to games do. I still dislike the Patriots but I have rooted for them in two Superbowls when they have played the one team in the NFL I really do despise. But I maintain the reasons I gave then - for THIS Bills squad it was just get in the dance. Whether that is as the #2 or the #7 mattered less to me. This team can beat anyone and lose to anyone. I just wanted them to get a shot. When we might have been needing a wildcard then getting wildcard rivals beat was my priority. 

Rams, Eagles, or Giants?

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31 minutes ago, harryS said:

 

Quite simply, it's because your method is not a reliable way to predict line movement.  In fact, it will usually predict opposite of what is right.  Would you be willing to share what odds screen you are looking at?  For example, here's what I'm seeing:

 

Qvd4p2E.png

 

You'll notice that the bigger money is all on the Bengals, Bills, and Bucs, and yet in all three cases, the line has moved towards the Raiders, Pats, and Eagles.

 

Why would that be?  Well, the following quote explains where you're going wrong:

 

 

You say that sarcastically but it's the actual truth!  Would it be so surprising to believe that most of the big-money bettors are whales dropping $10,000+ on the favorites alongside regular Joe Sixpack and his $50 bets?

 

The flaw in your analysis is that you believe most big-money bettors are sharps.  They're not, and that's why the lines are moving backwards from where you would predict them to move.  The sharps are on the dogs, as they tend to be.

 

I don't think most big-money bettors are sharps because that's not how you make money over the long run, but they do bet in syndicates which would result in a larger number of bets/$$.  I do hear what you're saying but the line isn't really moving "backwards"...it started at -4 in some areas.  Is it possible the sharps aren't really on this game at all?

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33 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Nice that they will be practicing outside tomorrow in 30 degree weather when it will be close to 0 on Saturday night…. I’m guessing the Pats are practicing outside all week. 

do you look for stuff to complain about ? This is not a big deal. Didn't they play in worse conditions last time Pats were here? Do you think they forgot about that and got soft in a few weeks?

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27 minutes ago, eball said:

 

I don't think most big-money bettors are sharps because that's not how you make money over the long run, but they do bet in syndicates which would result in a larger number of bets/$$.  I do hear what you're saying but the line isn't really moving "backwards"...it started at -4 in some areas.  Is it possible the sharps aren't really on this game at all?

 

Sharp involvement with the Pats is small but present, imo.  The Big 3 market leaders of Pinnacle, Bookmaker/CRIS, and Circa all started at 4.5 and are at 4 now.  (This, despite the public backing the Bills, as discussed).

 

But the team the sharps are really hammering are the Raiders so far, then the Eagles.

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