ehfeuh57 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 I played around with potential week 17 and 18 results until I had the Bills at the 1 seed I excluded using any Ties Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Process Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Bengals over Chiefs Broncos over Chiefs Dolphins over Titans Texans over Titans Browns over Bengals In addition to us winning out So 0% 1 1 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott7975 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Its not going to happen. I will say that I much prefer this thread than the threads of the past where we try to figure out the 10 games we need teams to lose after we win our last 7 in a row just to get a WC. 4 1 8 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warcodered Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, Process said: Bengals over Chiefs Broncos over Chiefs Dolphins over Titans Texans over Titans Browns over Bengals In addition to us winning out So 0% also Raiders over Colts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motorin' Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 It would have been much more interesting if the Chiefs and Titans had lost last week. Chargers and 9ers both blew it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eSJayDee Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Look at it this way... You've got 7 games that have to fall one way. If there's a 50-50 chance of each outcome that's 1 in 128 or slightly <1%. If you include the Raiders over Colts too, that 1 in 256 or about 0.4%. With the exception of our 2 games, you want the team to win that is presumably weaker & therefore should have < at 50% chance of winning. In this case, 0.2% seems roughly right depending on where you set those probabilities. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganesh Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Reasons why our losses to Titans, Jaguars, Home to Patriots and the Bucs hurt us so much. We had a chance to put away all those games in regulation and missed it. Otherwise we are in the driver seat with a 13-2 record...good 2 games ahead of the Chiefs...the road to the SB would have been through WNY 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsbackto81 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 2 hours ago, DrDare said: I played around with potential week 17 and 18 results until I had the Bills at the 1 seed I excluded using any Ties 1 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atlbillsfan1975 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 3 hours ago, ganesh said: Reasons why our losses to Titans, Jaguars, Home to Patriots and the Bucs hurt us so much. We had a chance to put away all those games in regulation and missed it. Otherwise we are in the driver seat with a 13-2 record...good 2 games ahead of the Chiefs...the road to the SB would have been through WNY Eh, I could argue the Bills have played their best on the road this year. wins at KC, NE, and the second half of the Bucs game. For me the only positive for the one seed for this Bills team is the bye week to get some rest. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TBBills Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Slightly like .21%? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strive_for_five_guy Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 5 hours ago, DrDare said: I played around with potential week 17 and 18 results until I had the Bills at the 1 seed I excluded using any Ties What’s the probability you are giving it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg S Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Bills will most likely be the #3 or #4 seed. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 The 1 and 2 seeds are pretty much pipe dreams at this point. The question is who do we want to face in WC weekend? I think everyone is still recovering from the Colts beat down but that goes two ways…do we want the Pats*** again? I don’t really care; once the playoffs start you play who’s in front of you without fear. I’ll tell you this; there is NO team out there thinking they “want” to play Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whites Bay Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 They're the #4 seed right now with a fairly soft schedule in front of them. Realistically, the best they're going to get is the #3 seed, which I think requires the Bengals losing to the Chiefs. If the best they're going to do is the #3 seed...great! Go for it! If nothing else, it would be bragging rights. Given where the team was about 4 weeks ago (and with the fan base and this board throwing itself off the closest freeway overpass), I'd be f-ing THRILLED with the #3 seed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All_Pro_Bills Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 1 hour ago, Whites Bay said: They're the #4 seed right now with a fairly soft schedule in front of them. Realistically, the best they're going to get is the #3 seed, which I think requires the Bengals losing to the Chiefs. If the best they're going to do is the #3 seed...great! Go for it! If nothing else, it would be bragging rights. Given where the team was about 4 weeks ago (and with the fan base and this board throwing itself off the closest freeway overpass), I'd be f-ing THRILLED with the #3 seed. It would be a shock if the Bills didn't finish at 11-6 if they show the performance and effort of Sunday's big win in the final 2 games. If the idea is to avoid the Colts in the Wild Card round then moving up to the 3rd seed seems necessary given the Colts schedule the last 2 weeks. Raiders at home, Jags on the road. Can't make a good case they'd lose either. In week 17 the Bills need to take care of business with Atlanta but there are several important and competitive match ups that you can make a rational case for going either way. Chiefs/Bengals Dolphins/Titans Rams/Ravens Broncos/Chargers Browns/Steelers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solomon Grundy Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 9 hours ago, Process said: Bengals over Chiefs Broncos over Chiefs Dolphins over Titans Texans over Titans Browns over Bengals In addition to us winning out So 0% I could see the first 3 scenarios happening. We’d need the football gods for the final 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnNord Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said: I could see the first 3 scenarios happening. We’d need the football gods for the final 2 The toughest one would be Houston over Tennessee. I could see actually see Cleveland beating Cincy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LABILLBACKER Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 8 hours ago, ganesh said: Reasons why our losses to Titans, Jaguars, Home to Patriots and the Bucs hurt us so much. We had a chance to put away all those games in regulation and missed it. Otherwise we are in the driver seat with a 13-2 record...good 2 games ahead of the Chiefs...the road to the SB would have been through WNY Our 2 worst loses were to Pittsburgh and Jacksonville. Absolutely no excuse for either of those 2 debacles. If we beat up on the Falcons and Jest, we'll probably have the #1 point differential in the NFL. I'll take the AFCE and 11-6 considering our wierd loses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Process Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 2 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said: I could see the first 3 scenarios happening. We’d need the football gods for the final 2 Browns over Bengals is way more likely than broncos over chiefs, imo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro Nimbus Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 If the Bills would have won a few of those heartbreakers (Titans, Jags, Bucs) they would be firmly in the first seed. Highest we can get realistically would be 3 seed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Process Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 11 hours ago, Process said: Bengals over Chiefs Broncos over Chiefs Dolphins over Titans Texans over Titans Browns over Bengals In addition to us winning out So 0% Add that Colts need to lose to the raiders or jags. So 6 games need to go our way including several underdogs winning. And we need to win out. Lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Huff Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 I just want the division so we’re guaranteed at least one home playoff game 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warcodered Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 5 hours ago, eball said: The 1 and 2 seeds are pretty much pipe dreams at this point. The question is who do we want to face in WC weekend? I think everyone is still recovering from the Colts beat down but that goes two ways…do we want the Pats*** again? I don’t really care; once the playoffs start you play who’s in front of you without fear. I’ll tell you this; there is NO team out there thinking they “want” to play Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. things could turn out in a way for the Bills to end up having to play the Colts and Titans as they move through the Playoffs. That'd be a hell of a narrative especially if in the third game they face the Chiefs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LabattBlue Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 The Bills had plenty of chances to be the #1 seed, but the close losses to Jax, Ten, and the 1st Pats game doomed that possibility. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt_In_NH Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 The Bills will be the 3 seed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YattaOkasan Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 5 hours ago, All_Pro_Bills said: If the idea is to avoid the Colts in the Wild Card round then moving up to the 3rd seed seems necessary given the Colts schedule the last 2 weeks. Raiders at home, Jags on the road. Can't make a good case they'd lose either. Colts are gonna play a backup QB against a hungry LV team. I dont know if all their OL are back from this past weekend. So that’s a pretty good case for them to lose that one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nextmanup Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 7 hours ago, Brennan Huff said: I just want the division so we’re guaranteed at least one home playoff game If we don't have that, it's only because we blew it. I think that is exactly where we end up, and that's fine. We need to play our best football of the season and take it 1 game at a time. When the smoke is cleared, I think it will be KC and Buffalo in the AFC Championship game, again...just as Las Vegas has predicted all season long, going back to August. We're still the 2 best teams in the AFC and have the 2 most explosive offenses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djp14150 Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 (edited) 19 hours ago, DrDare said: I played around with potential week 17 and 18 results until I had the Bills at the 1 seed I excluded using any Ties you need 1. Titans lose two ant Colts lose 1. 2. chiefs lose two 3. Bengals lose 1 all 3 occur Buffalo gets 1 seed 2 occur they get 2 seed 2 occur they get 3 seed games this mrans week 17 bengals over chiefs dolphins over titans Raiders over colts week 18 ( first three winners are at home) broncos over chiefs browns over bengals. Cleveland won first meeting texans over titans Texans won first meeting jags over colts ( if colts win in week 17) outside the last game of Jags, The others are not a stretch that those teams can win. Edited December 29, 2021 by djp14150 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganesh Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 8 hours ago, Process said: Browns over Bengals is way more likely than broncos over chiefs, imo Bengals are playing extremely well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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