John Brown to Raiders

[Stranded in Boston]

I'm sorry to see Smoke go; he was a big part of Josh's development. He did sometimes seem a bit less-than-crisp in route running, but OTOH, he ran one of my all-time favorite Bills' routes against New England last year, when he absolutely toasted Gilmore on a gorgeous post-corner for TD. Gilmore might STILL be chasing that post feint ... Anyhow, I hope Smoke can turn it around in Vegas -- just not against the Bills. 

Edited March 17, 2021 by Stranded in Boston

[Logic]

I think it was @Hapless Bills Fan that said it here first, and then I saw Erik Turner and Greg Tompsett of Cover 1 talk about it on Twitter:

John Brown too easily got erased by aggressive press coverage last year. He too easily got erased from whole games, in general.

Seeing now how much Brown signed for, compared to how much Sanders cost, and then keeping in mind that the Bills didn't even ask Brown to take a pay cut (according to Brown)...it just seems like the Bills view Sanders as un upgrade.

In particular, as Turner pointed out: Teams started to play two-high safety zone coverage shells more and more as the year went on to force the Bills to dink and dunk their way own field. It took the offense some time to adjust, and Brown was not particularly helpful in these situations. By contrast, Sanders is more physical, a better route runner in general, and can work underneath more effectively. So while they gave up the speed and familiarity of Brown, they gained the physicality and route running of Sanders and, thus, theoretically gained the ability to more effectively operate against the two-high shells and/or to force defenses back into playing man-to-man.

TL;DR: Beane and McDermott seem to feel that Sanders is simply better than Brown, or at least more effective at doing what they need from a WR2. They replaced Brown with Sanders as a means of more effectively operating in the short and intermediate game, so that when teams go to soft zones, the Bills can more effectively counter.

[NewEra]

Thanks for the service Smoke!  You’re a class act and I appreciate you.  I’ll always be a fan.  

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

1 hour ago, JOSH HUFF said:

Brown was awesome, should have kept him.  I would rather have brown than Sanders, especially a 34 year old Sanders.

Your words have merit, but we now have Harlan's great great grandson.  Famous relative criteria: ✔️!

[TBBills]

I hope they have a set of hamstrings for him.

[Just in Atlanta]

Out with the old.

In with the ... old.

 

In all seriousness, I do wish him well there. Seemed like a solid low 2 / high 3 from my vantage point, even during his injury last year. 

Edited March 17, 2021 by Just in Atlanta

[Royale with Cheese]

I like Brown and he played well for us.

 

However, I think they went with Sanders because I believe he's pretty good getting off of press and runs good routes.

 

I didn't watch every route in the AFCCG that he ran but I did see a few times where the corner got his hands on Brown....he couldn't get off.  

[Norcalbillsfan]

40 minutes ago, Logic said:

I think it was @Hapless Bills Fan that said it here first, and then I saw Erik Turner and Greg Tompsett of Cover 1 talk about it on Twitter:

John Brown too easily got erased by aggressive press coverage last year. He too easily got erased from whole games, in general.

Seeing now how much Brown signed for, compared to how much Sanders cost, and then keeping in mind that the Bills didn't even ask Brown to take a pay cut (according to Brown)...it just seems like the Bills view Sanders as un upgrade.

In particular, as Turner pointed out: Teams started to play two-high safety zone coverage shells more and more as the year went on to force the Bills to dink and dunk their way own field. It took the offense some time to adjust, and Brown was not particularly helpful in these situations. By contrast, Sanders is more physical, a better route runner in general, and can work underneath more effectively. So while they gave up the speed and familiarity of Brown, they gained the physicality and route running of Sanders and, thus, theoretically gained the ability to more effectively operate against the two-high shells and/or to force defenses back into playing man-to-man.

TL;DR: Beane and McDermott seem to feel that Sanders is simply better than Brown, or at least more effective at doing what they need from a WR2. They replaced Brown with Sanders as a means of more effectively operating in the short and intermediate game, so that when teams go to soft zones, the Bills can more effectively counter.

Awesome info, I wasn't heart broken with smoke leaving. When he was on the feild it still felt like something wasn't right and you made it clear what that was. I wish him all the best in vegas.

[Rocky Landing]

Brown will be a really good weapon for Nate Peterman to shine in the offseason.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

 

Awwww....something just got in my eye.

 

For those who don't speak Insta:

Isaiah McKenzie (posts pic of him leaning on Brown, maybe from frustration or for comfort): "Another one (teammate) gone, but I'm happy for you"

John Brown: "Love you bro, I'm always a call away"

 

Those guys really built a bond, even McKenzie who was noted as an incessant trash talker of his own teammates.

[billsfan89]

2 hours ago, mjt328 said:

Clearly John Brown's release was about more than just money.

 

His comments after getting cut last week suggested that Buffalo never asked him to take a paycut.  And him settling for only $3.75 million guaranteed on the 3rd day of free agency pretty much confirms that.

 

Personally I liked Brown, and don't really see a 33-year-old Emmanuel Sanders as much of an upgrade.  Maybe there is more to his injury than fans know about.  Maybe the team wants to move away from pure speed guys, and prefers to have more physical guys.

 

I think it has to be a more serious injury than we thought too. Agents know their players markets and they know what they can get and if they asked Brown to take a pay cut I am sure he would have. Good signing for the Raiders a good “buy low” opportunity.

[Brennan Huff]

3 hours ago, junior12thman92 said:

Some board members about to be big mad upon seeing those numbers lol.

It’s me. I’m board members. I was ok with letting Brown walk. But then they signed Sanders. I’d take brown for 3 mil per over Sanders at 6 all day long. Not even the slightest bit of doubt 

[Freddie's Dead]

Farewell John SmokeY Brown, we hardly knew ye.  All the best to you and yours.

[NoHuddleKelly12]

Speaking of Ex-Bill Raider WR's...almost forgot about Zay, who sticks on another year for them as well.

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Some people honestly thing Brown is a run all the routes WR? 

 

Lee Evans had a 1,000 yard season. He wasn't a run all the routes WR either.

 

Wait till they see Sanders. Sanders is like a cross between Beasley and Diggs. He won't take the top off like Brown could in his prime but he's much more versatile. 

[gobillsinytown]

By all accounts Smoke is a really good guy, so I hope he does well there.

 

Unfortunately you never know how the Raiders are going to do each year with Wild-Eyed Jon as coach.  Sometimes he seems like he's getting them ready for a good run, and sometimes it looks like they're ready to crash and he goes back to the TV booth.

 

Either way they're always entertaining.

 

 

[BuffaloBillsMagic1]

8 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

That's what I meant. Lol. Holy Smoke. 

 

The league must not have felt good about him? 

We should have given him the same deal 

[SirAndrew]

4 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

I think it has to be a more serious injury than we thought too. Agents know their players markets and they know what they can get and if they asked Brown to take a pay cut I am sure he would have. Good signing for the Raiders a good “buy low” opportunity.

I think this is the best analysis considering the cost and talent of the players involved. I don’t see Sanders as an upgrade over Brown like others do. I think both guys are capable of similar production. I’m happy with the Sanders acquisition because it filled a need after letting Brown go. 

 

I see it as a lateral move. I don’t agree with all this talk about opponents shutting down Brown. Brown was shut down by physical defensive play both times against KC, but our entire offense got shut down by KC twice. Brown isn’t the most physical receiver, but people are talking about him like he disappears on a regular basis. What number two wideout doesn’t get shut down on occasion ? Let’s not act like Emmanuel Sanders is a player who’s impossible to take out of the game. The sole difference might be the injury situation. Sanders could contribute a lot more if he’s healthy next season, while Brown could have injury issues. 

[billsfan89]

15 minutes ago, SirAndrew said:

I think this is the best analysis considering the cost and talent of the players involved. I don’t see Sanders as an upgrade over Brown like others do. I think both guys are capable of similar production. I’m happy with the Sanders acquisition because it filled a need after letting Brown go. 

 

I see it as a lateral move. I don’t agree with all this talk about opponents shutting down Brown. Brown was shut down by physical defensive play both times against KC, but our entire offense got shut down by KC twice. Brown isn’t the most physical receiver, but people are talking about him like he disappears on a regular basis. What number two wideout doesn’t get shut down on occasion ? Let’s not act like Emmanuel Sanders is a player who’s impossible to take out of the game. The sole difference might be the injury situation. Sanders could contribute a lot more if he’s healthy next season, while Brown could have injury issues. 

 

Sanders was more productive than Brown in 2020. Projecting what either could bring in 2021 and I would give a slight edge to Sanders. I think Sanders in a more limited role can thrive and take the pressure off Davis and Cole just enough to keep the offense chugging along. Hoping they add Ertz or another pass catching weapon to the offense. 

[SirAndrew]

3 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

Sanders was more productive than Brown in 2020. Projecting what either could bring in 2021 and I would give a slight edge to Sanders. I think Sanders in a more limited role can thrive and take the pressure off Davis and Cole just enough to keep the offense chugging along. Hoping they add Ertz or another pass catching weapon to the offense. 

I agree, and I like the Sanders signing. I just think that injuries to Brown significantly impacted his 2020 season. Sanders had superior 2020 stats, but Brown also had 72 catches in 2019 to Sanders 36 catches that year. Both players have their strengths and weaknesses. I’m not sure you could rely on Brown 2021, but I disagree with acting like Sanders is twice the player. People finding all these flaws in Brown seems like nitpicking just because we let him go. 

[Punching Bag]

Al Davis would be proud.

[SoCal Deek]

And no State income taxes! 

[Thurman#1]

7 hours ago, mjt328 said:

 

Not really.  Between the contract they gave Emmanuel Sanders ($6.5) and the dead money leftover from Brown ($1.6), they maybe saved $1 million.

 

If Brown was playing hardball for money and didn't want a paycut, he wouldn't have settled for such a small offer from the Raiders.

 

The Bills clearly had no interest in bringing him back.

 

 

The $8 million they saved was after the dead money was taken out. $7.9 to be precise.

 

And the Sanders deal is $6 mill, not $6.5. Yes, there is 500K in incentives, but he might or might not ever get them, and if he does they hit the 2022 cap, not 2021. So that's about $2 mill. Not the $3 I had thought, but about $2 mill.

 

I didn't argue that Brown was playing hardball, or that they wanted him back. It's clear they didn't, if they didn't make him any offer. 

 

I argued that the reasons they didn't want him back was to save money and because he spent half the year injured and it wasn't just one injury. He had multiple leg injuries, and at his age, that's frightening for teams. In the playoffs he was back but had lost his explosiveness. They effectively doubled Diggs and Beasley, and the countermeasure should have been Brown. A healthy Brown would probably have had a great day. He couldn't take advantage.

[Mr. WEO]

He can split targets with Zay Jones

[Thurman#1]

8 hours ago, Logic said:

I think it was @Hapless Bills Fan that said it here first, and then I saw Erik Turner and Greg Tompsett of Cover 1 talk about it on Twitter:

John Brown too easily got erased by aggressive press coverage last year. He too easily got erased from whole games, in general.

Seeing now how much Brown signed for, compared to how much Sanders cost, and then keeping in mind that the Bills didn't even ask Brown to take a pay cut (according to Brown)...it just seems like the Bills view Sanders as un upgrade.

In particular, as Turner pointed out: Teams started to play two-high safety zone coverage shells more and more as the year went on to force the Bills to dink and dunk their way own field. It took the offense some time to adjust, and Brown was not particularly helpful in these situations. By contrast, Sanders is more physical, a better route runner in general, and can work underneath more effectively. So while they gave up the speed and familiarity of Brown, they gained the physicality and route running of Sanders and, thus, theoretically gained the ability to more effectively operate against the two-high shells and/or to force defenses back into playing man-to-man.

TL;DR: Beane and McDermott seem to feel that Sanders is simply better than Brown, or at least more effective at doing what they need from a WR2. They replaced Brown with Sanders as a means of more effectively operating in the short and intermediate game, so that when teams go to soft zones, the Bills can more effectively counter.

 

 

While I see that logic, Logic, it sure looked to me like Smoke was having trouble working underneath largely due to his injuries. In 2019 he worked underneath very effectively often. This year his cuts didn't seem as dangerous or sudden, particularly later in the year. Sanders may well be more effective at underneath stuff, I haven't seen much more than a few highlights in quite a while. 

 

In 2019 he didn't get much press at all because when he did, he ate it up.

 

But unless Sanders has enough speed, I think the counter this year won't be as much two-deep, as they'll only be worried about Diggs deep, rather than have a burner on each side.

 

We'll see.

Edited March 18, 2021 by Thurman#1

[Logic]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

But unless Sanders has enough speed, I think the counter this year won't be as much two-deep, as they'll only be worried about Diggs deep, rather than have a burner on each side.

 

Fair. The only thing I'll say to that is that the Bills were without Brown for quite a few games last year, and teams were still two-highing them quite a bit in some of those games.

Furthermore, while Gabriel Davis doesn't have deep "speed", per se, he IS a deep threat. His 17.1 yards per reception attest to that. John Brown, by comparison, has a career 14.8 yards per reception average.

 

[Royale with Cheese]

52 minutes ago, Logic said:

Fair. The only thing I'll say to that is that the Bills were without Brown for quite a few games last year, and teams were still two-highing them quite a bit in some of those games.

Furthermore, while Gabriel Davis doesn't have deep "speed", per se, he IS a deep threat. His 17.1 yards per reception attest to that. John Brown, by comparison, has a career 14.8 yards per reception average.

 

 

Davis is a guy that when he's one on one, just throw it up and make him high point a ball deep threat.  

[Logic]

23 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Interesting Beane said they needed to get faster and they’ve done the opposite to this point..... I expect and hope for a burner at some point in the draft. 

I, too, expect speed to be added via the draft. Particularly at WR, RB, and CB.

 

Here’s hoping.

[Teddy KGB]

11 hours ago, StHustle said:

 

I really thought you knew football better than this...smh

Agholor will make 3 times as much for a reason.      Please stop digging this hole.  

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

In 2019 he didn't get much press at all because when he did, he ate it up.

 

I felt that in 2019, Brown got erased by aggressive (physical) man coverage in the Browns and in the Ravens game. 

Brown kind of said as much after the latter, said "the refs ought to call a better game then we would have a better game" or something like that.

 

I think it was a factor in the Houston playoff as well but I honestly don't remember what coverage they were playing, maybe I've kind of blocked that game out of my mind.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

13 hours ago, SirAndrew said:

I think this is the best analysis considering the cost and talent of the players involved. I don’t see Sanders as an upgrade over Brown like others do. I think both guys are capable of similar production. I’m happy with the Sanders acquisition because it filled a need after letting Brown go. 

 

I see it as a lateral move. I don’t agree with all this talk about opponents shutting down Brown. Brown was shut down by physical defensive play both times against KC, but our entire offense got shut down by KC twice. Brown isn’t the most physical receiver, but people are talking about him like he disappears on a regular basis. What number two wideout doesn’t get shut down on occasion ? Let’s not act like Emmanuel Sanders is a player who’s impossible to take out of the game. The sole difference might be the injury situation. Sanders could contribute a lot more if he’s healthy next season, while Brown could have injury issues. 

 

Sanders is a more versatile WR. You don't get to the reception and yardage totals Sanders has without being more of an all around WR IMO. Sanders has played in about 62% more games than Brown but has over 100% more receptions and 82% more receiving yards. So he's been far more productive on a per game basis. Sanders will also be able to fill in more equally to Beasley's role should Beasley become an injury risk. And even fill in for Diggs for a couple games to a degree. I think more versatility is what Beane is looking for on the roster. 

8 hours ago, Teddy KGB said:

Agholor will make 3 times as much for a reason.      Please stop digging this hole.  

 

 

I really liked Agholor for the Bills. But yeah, Agholor is making much more because he's got far more tread left on his tires. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

9 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Interesting Beane said they needed to get faster and they’ve done the opposite to this point..... I expect and hope for a burner at some point in the draft. 

 

I think there is a difference between straight line speed which Brown has and putting pressure on a team vertically vs. sideline to to sideline speed and putting pressure on a team horizontally. But really, if we are looking to add purely speed our best bet was probably always going to be the draft. So we'll see how important that is. 

[SoCal Deek]

11 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

I think there is a difference between straight line speed which Brown has and putting pressure on a team vertically vs. sideline to to sideline speed and putting pressure on a team horizontally. But really, if we are looking to add purely speed our best bet was probably always going to be the draft. So we'll see how important that is. 

I know I’m in the minority on here but I’ve always felt that speed was a bit overrated. It’s rare that a WR just runs a go route and beats the defense over the top. It mostly comes down to play design and getting the WR that extra step by having the QB either freeze or look off the deep safety. Yes, I’m guessing speed is better than slow but it’s not the answer to the passing game’s ultimate success. 

Edited March 18, 2021 by SoCal Deek

[RaoulDuke79]

Best of luck Smoke. Hopefully he can say healthy and get back into form.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

4 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

I know I’m in the minority on here but I’ve always felt that speed was a bit overrated. It’s rare that a WR just runs a go route and beats the defense over the top. It mostly comes down to play design and getting the WR that extra step by having the QB either freeze or look off the deep safety. Yes, I’m guessing speed is better than slow but it’s not the answer to the passing game’s ultimate success. 

 

There's definitely different types of speed. See Tyreek Hill vs. DK Metcalf. 

[SoCal Deek]

2 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

There's definitely different types of speed. See Tyreek Hill vs. DK Metcalf. 

Agreed. So the key is in the design on the offense. My childhood favorite player was always Bullet Bob Hayes, literally the world’s fastest human. But as a WR he could only do so much. In today’s NFL it’s more about play design. Even the Chiefs have learned that’s it’s just as effective to have Hill run across the field, rather than a straight go route, and the completion percentage becomes close to a sure thing. 

[StHustle]

10 hours ago, Teddy KGB said:

Agholor will make 3 times as much for a reason.      Please stop digging this hole.  

 

 

Overall career wise...John Brown crushes Agholor in every important statistical category. Brown has been around longer but I'm talking averages...not totals. Agholor put together one good season so far and now you're riding his jock strap. Let's see what happens in a new system. Both healthy, no knowledgeable football fan would rank Agholor higher than Brown unless you're simply judging last season which is ridiculous knowing Brown was hurt for the bulk of it. Again, average football fans would recognize and consider that.

[Teddy KGB]

2 hours ago, StHustle said:

 

Overall career wise...John Brown crushes Agholor in every important statistical category. Brown has been around longer but I'm talking averages...not totals. Agholor put together one good season so far and now you're riding his jock strap. Let's see what happens in a new system. Both healthy, no knowledgeable football fan would rank Agholor higher than Brown unless you're simply judging last season which is ridiculous knowing Brown was hurt for the bulk of it. Again, average football fans would recognize and consider that.

Okay you win.   I’m an “average” football fan because you like the guy with worse stats and and the smaller contract 

 

Email the gm’s let them know they got it wrong 

Edited March 18, 2021 by Teddy KGB