I have complete confidence that Beane will find a impact player with that 30th pick

[folz]

Just out of curiosity, I looked back at the 30th overall pick over the last 20 years, just to see what players came at that slot. I don't know if there is anything to make out of it, it's a pretty mixed bag. There are definitely some solid players and some busts, but only a few really top-notch players. 

 

The breakdown by position group (of the last twenty-one 30th overall picks) is: 6 DBs selected, 4 WR, 3 RB, 3 LB, 2 TE, 1 DE, 1DT, 1 OG.

 

Busts (not counting Igbinoghone yet, even though his rookie season wasn't great) = 9 players or approx. 43%

 

Red = Stud; Orange = starter/at least one Pro Bowl or 1st Team All-Pro; Purple = starter/solid contributor, not Pro Bowl level 

 

2020 DB Noah Igbinoghone to Miami

2019 DB DeAndre Baker to NY Giants

2018 DB Mike Hughes to Minnesota

2017 LB T.J. Watt to Pittsburgh

2016 DT Vernon Butler to Carolina

2015 DB DaMarious Randall to Green Bay

2014 DB Jimmie Ward to San Fran

2013 LB Alec Ogletree to Rams

2012 WR A.J. Jenkins to San Fran

2011 DE Muhammad Wilkerson to NY Jets

2010 RB Jahvid Best to Detroit

2009 WR Kenny Britt to Tennessee

2008 TE Dustin Keller to NY Jets

2007 WR Craig Davis to San Diego

2006 RB Joseph Addai to Indy

2005 TE Heath Miller to Pitt

2004 RB Kevin Jones to Detroit

2003 DB Sammy Davis to San Diego

2002 OG Kendall Simmons to Pitt

2001 WR Reggie Wayne to Indy

2000 LB Keith Bullock to Tennessee

[Nelius]

Huh that's a worse list than I would have guessed, thanks for putting it together. Been a DB wasteland the last few years. Surprised at the total lack of impactful offensive players outside of Wayne, so really nothing in 20 years. Addai was alright but he only really had a couple good seasons.

[NewEra]

10 minutes ago, BadboyBills said:

Read about this kid WR Kadarius Toney from Florida. Being compared to none other then that guy who burned our butts last Sunday. If he's still there at 30, I dont know how we dont as he's already turning heads at the senior bowl, definitely rising fast. Also, check the vid of him absolutely schooling a CB in practice the other day. Pretty awesome! I would be very happy with this pick.

 

www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/top-2021-nfl-draft-prospects-in-the-reeses-senior-bowl-najee-harris-kadarius-toney-highlight-the-list/amp/

 

"When reviewing scouting reports, the breakdown does not always match the grade. In the case of Toney, the grade may not be high enough. He is fast, agile and elusive. NFL teams can use him on jet sweeps, wide receiver screens and in a variety of other ways, similar to Tyreek Hill in Kansas City."

 

 

He’d be a welcome playmaker.  Based on how explosive he is, don’t think he’ll be available when we pick.  

[Da webster guy]

7 hours ago, Charles Romes said:

Taking a page from the Diggs trade playbook I actually think the sweet spot In value is trading that pick for a proven player who is in the top 10 in his position.  Let’s be honest a pick at 30 is essentially a 2nd round pick. At the same time it can still be sold to a trade partner’s fan base as a first round pick. Why not eliminate all the doubt and get a proved top ten at his position player. Plenty of teams will be unloading assets this off-season. 

Thats kind of what I'm thinking.   Find a team in rebuilding mode that wants young players.  A 1st round pick means you can lock for 5 years, like Minny got with Jefferson.

Last two years our first pick was Ed and then Epenesa last year in the 2nd round.  It may be too early to judge them but watching guys like Bud Dupree and Clark for KC run around changing games and elevating their defenses its hard to not consider just getting a few proven players while we still have 2 seasons before Josh's new contract will start hurting us.

Don't care about runners or receivers, or really anyone but the trench guys on either side of the ball.  Get the proven dudes and lets get cracking.

 

My only exception would be LB, there are few college dudes that might be worth grabbing in 2nd or 3rd rd.

[John from Riverside]

2 hours ago, NewEra said:

He’d be a welcome playmaker.  Based on how explosive he is, don’t think he’ll be available when we pick.  

I seem to be hearing a lot of this player will not be available when we pick somebody is going to be available at 30 that we didn’t think was going to be there

4 hours ago, Process said:

There aren't many positions where we couldnt use an upgrade. Outside of QB and maybe S, you could make a case for any position at 30. Should be in a good spot to take BPA. 

 

In general I don't like taking RBs or OL in Rd 1 though. 

 

I do like the idea of trading down. 

I really just don’t agree with us whenever you have a team that is one game away of playing in the Super Bowl it has a lot of talent by default I do think there will be an obvious player at 30 they can help us

[billsfan89]

6 hours ago, Charles Romes said:

Taking a page from the Diggs trade playbook I actually think the sweet spot In value is trading that pick for a proven player who is in the top 10 in his position.  Let’s be honest a pick at 30 is essentially a 2nd round pick. At the same time it can still be sold to a trade partner’s fan base as a first round pick. Why not eliminate all the doubt and get a proved top ten at his position player. Plenty of teams will be unloading assets this off-season. 

 

The problem is that unlike in 2020 when the Bills had plenty of cap space the types of proven players you are trading for aren't usually on rookie or more affordable deals. They are typically players on their 5th year option or last year of their rookie deals or very early into their second contract. Players that are either asking for huge extensions or on big deals. 

 

So while I wouldn't be opposed to a trade using the 30th overall pick I am not sure what players out there fit the bill of a dynamic pass rusher or pass catcher on a cheap contract.

[machine gun kelly]

10 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

I absolutely believe that Beane was involved with that pick.

John I was slammed months ago for stating a similar point.  I knew then and now that is tampering and illegal, but you can’t prove either way unless Beane or McD copped to it.  We go into the draft in 2017, fire Whaley the next day and poof there was Beane on May 9th.  We’ll never know, but I can’t believe two friends weren’t having a private conversation or two regarding Tre.

 

It doesn’t matter, my view is Beane has had solid drafts so why would I think this one will be different. No one has perfect drafts.  No team, and there’s no way to say our late round picks will make it.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

Does 'impact player' have anything to do with Marcell Dareus's Jaguar? 🤔

[whorlnut]

13 hours ago, Bob in STL said:

^ Probably will be long gone.  “Fixing” the running game may have more to do with a stud OG than spending pick 30 on a RB.  
 

At pick 30 he will likely find a solid starter that is ready to play soon than an impact player.  At least based on my definition of an impact player.  You never know.  

We have a stud OG coming back off injury in Cody Ford. If you recall, he makes his hay in the run game. It’s pass pro that is his Achilles heel. 

[dave mcbride]

13 hours ago, FireChans said:

He was in the Carolina War Room drafting Bills players all night? Going to the bathroom to call McD every 30 minutes?

 

 

 

 

[Royale with Cheese]

9 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Absolutely need picks. The Bills offensive line was worst in football in 2018. They traded up for a position of need to grab a Guard/RT in Cody Ford.

 

They needed a replacement for Gore and took Moss in the 3rd. 
 

Really not positions you burn high draft picks on. 

 

Wait...are you really saying that if a team drafts a player at a position they need help with, it's a need pick?

 

Well we needed a QB....Josh Allen was a need pick.

We needed a MLB....Tremaine Edmunds was a need pick.

We needed a CB....Tre White was a need pick.  

Bengals needed a QB....Burrow a need pick.

Vikings needed a WR....Jefferson a need pick.

 

You see how this works?  You can make a case that every pick is a need pick then.  

 

What are you talking about?  RB and interior lineman are taking ALL THE TIME.  

[dave mcbride]

8 hours ago, folz said:

Just out of curiosity, I looked back at the 30th overall pick over the last 20 years, just to see what players came at that slot. I don't know if there is anything to make out of it, it's a pretty mixed bag. There are definitely some solid players and some busts, but only a few really top-notch players. 

 

The breakdown by position group (of the last twenty-one 30th overall picks) is: 6 DBs selected, 4 WR, 3 RB, 3 LB, 2 TE, 1 DE, 1DT, 1 OG.

 

Busts (not counting Igbinoghone yet, even though his rookie season wasn't great) = 9 players or approx. 43%

 

Red = Stud; Orange = starter/at least one Pro Bowl or 1st Team All-Pro; Purple = starter/solid contributor, not Pro Bowl level 

 

2020 DB Noah Igbinoghone to Miami

2019 DB DeAndre Baker to NY Giants

2018 DB Mike Hughes to Minnesota

2017 LB T.J. Watt to Pittsburgh

2016 DT Vernon Butler to Carolina

2015 DB DaMarious Randall to Green Bay

2014 DB Jimmie Ward to San Fran

2013 LB Alec Ogletree to Rams

2012 WR A.J. Jenkins to San Fran

2011 DE Muhammad Wilkerson to NY Jets

2010 RB Jahvid Best to Detroit

2009 WR Kenny Britt to Tennessee

2008 TE Dustin Keller to NY Jets

2007 WR Craig Davis to San Diego

2006 RB Joseph Addai to Indy

2005 TE Heath Miller to Pitt

2004 RB Kevin Jones to Detroit

2003 DB Sammy Davis to San Diego

2002 OG Kendall Simmons to Pitt

2001 WR Reggie Wayne to Indy

2000 LB Keith Bullock to Tennessee

Good research. I’d argue that for a couple of seasons at least, Muhammed Wilkerson was a stud. I think he simply lost all passion for the game and checked out after getting paid, however. In 2015, though, he was one of the best DEs in the league and probably should have been first-team all pro.

[HOUSE]

Move up, move up, move up 

[Bill from NYC]

14 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

I absolutely believe that Beane was involved with that pick.

Nothing to brag about, no?

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

14 hours ago, DCbillsfan said:

Beane will find a playmaker with speed.  My guess is WR.

If we're drafting a speed WR at #30 and none of the earlier guys have an unlikely fall, I want Kadarius Toney. Immediate impact as an elite speed WR and returner as well as a long term replacement for John Brown when his contract runs out (if he isn't cut this offseason). Unlike McKenzie and a lot of the elite speed guys, Toney has decent size (6'0" and 195) and I think he can be a complete NFL receiver in addition to the return ability and the jet sweeps/gadget plays. 

 

While the defense needs some reinforcements, I'm in favor of investing in our biggest strength (passing offense) early in the draft and adding elite speed on both sides of the ball to compete with KC. 

 

 

[Thurman#1]

15 hours ago, NewEra said:

 

Think what you want.  You do not know this

 

 

 

Correct, I don't know this. It's not just me, it's everybody. Except a few nuts on these boards who love crazy conspiracy theories.

 

Doing this would be a crime. It would be unethical. And it would be a thing that neither of these guys would do. Much less would McDermott then hire a guy who he knew would be willing to betray him when his back was turned. Hiring Beane after seeing that he was willing to lie and betray his employer would be acting as stupid as the guy who marries the woman who he met by getting her to cheat on her last husband. There are plenty of slowcoaches around who do that kind of thing. But they're addle-pated and you can find a huge majority of them wandering around with their head in their hands a year or two later, saying, "How could I have known she'd cheat on me?"

 

That's what you hear about Beane and McDermott, isn't it? That they enjoy surrounding themselves with lying, backstabbing, untrustworthy thieves, right? Right? Right? I mean, you hear that all the time, don't you? Except of course you don't, because that's pretty much the opposite of what they're about, guys who can't be trusted to do their jobs without turning traitor and giving away all their secrets if it suits them.

 

But again, kid yourself if you have to. But pretty much everyone else is going to look at who these guys are and what they stand for and know to expect behavior from them that's congruent with who they are. But plenty of others don't let common sense hold them back. It's fair enough, though it will contribute to being wrong much more often than not.

 

 

Edited January 28, 2021 by Thurman#1

[Royale with Cheese]

6 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Of course you inevitably draft for positions of need.

 

My point is you don't reach for need at positions like offensive guard or dime a dozen RBs with high draft picks.

 

QB, CB, and WR are completely different. Those are premier positions in today's NFL that move the needle for your teams. Guards, and RBs like Singletary don't. 

 

That's pretty odd...you wanted Dobbins last year with our 2nd round pick.  I thought they were a dime a dozen?

So anytime you draft a guard within the first 3 rounds...it's a reach?

[SCBills]

We'd probably need to move up for Kadarius Toney.   I'm seeing mocks with him around the 20 range now.  

 

I think he's THE perfect weapon for this offense, but I'd be shocked if he lasts to 30, and I don't see us having the expendable assets to move up, potentially, ten spots to grab him. 

 

He also slayed at the Senior Bowl the other day in front of NFL scouts.

 

Best weapon for us at 30 will likely be RB's Najee Harris/Travis Etienne or a stud G/C.

 

That being said.... if Kadarius Toney is there, and we don't take him, I will be sick to my stomach. 

 

Edited January 28, 2021 by SCBills

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

 

 

You know McD used to work there too, right?

[Royale with Cheese]

12 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

I said dime a dozen backs.

 

I actually wanted CEH but figured he wouldn't be there in the 2nd. Dobbins was my next choice. Moss is just too slow footed and could be easily replaced by an UDFA or cheap FA.... hell I thought Yeldon was the best overall back on the team. 

 

Do you really think Beane drafted either one of these backs thinking they were a dime a dozen?

So you're declaring Moss a wasted pick after one year?

Essentially, he shouldn't have been drafted at all according to you.

Edited January 28, 2021 by Royale with Cheese

[dave mcbride]

5 minutes ago, FireChans said:

You know McD used to work there too, right?

Of course. And as a DC, he sure as hell wasn't scouting Temple OTs and East Carolina wide receivers. 

17 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

I said dime a dozen backs.

 

I actually wanted CEH but figured he wouldn't be there in the 2nd. Dobbins was my next choice. Moss is just too slow footed and could be easily replaced by an UDFA or cheap FA.... hell I thought Yeldon was the best overall back on the team. 

Moss is a lot better than you're giving him credit for. He looked good for the most part. And he's just a rookie anyway.

Edited January 28, 2021 by dave mcbride

[Royale with Cheese]

2 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

I have no idea what Beane thinks. I've said repeatedly outside of Josh Allen who was an incredible pick his drafts have been pretty average. 

 

Never did I say Moss shouldn't have been drafted at all nor do I think drafting Moss sets the franchise back in any way. My opinion is you don't use a 3rd round pick on a back you could easily replace with an UDFA or cheap FA. 

 

Yes you did.  If you can replace a 3rd round pick EASILY with a UDFA or cheap FA then you are firmly stating he's a wasted pick.  Not only a wasted pick but someone that shouldn't be drafted at all.  

[JoshAllenReceipts]

Alabama RG Deonte Brown

 

 

1) Resign Daryl Williams

2) Let Feliciano walk

3) Draft RG Deonte Brown

 

2021 Bills OL

 

LT Dion Dawkins

LG Ike Boettger / Cody Ford

C Mitch Morse

RG Deonte Brown

RT Daryl Williams

Edited January 28, 2021 by JoshAllenReceipts

[ClemsonBills]

15 hours ago, Big Turk said:

Travis Etienne would look good in a Bills jersey....Brian Daboll's version of CJ Spiller.

Except Etienne>>>>>>Spiller

[dave mcbride]

4 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

I thought he played better as the season went on. He's a solid 2nd option out of the backfield.  That's not really my point though. 

 

Just dont think you burn a 3rd round pick on a guy who is easily replaceable and wasn't really the complimentary back this team need IMO. They needed a speed back to compliment motor. Moss and Motor are basically the same type of back. 

These guys aren't as replaceable as you might think. Look around the league at all of the bad RB situations. Just look at the Rams last year and in the second half of 2018: Gurley gets hurt, and they have no answer. Cam Akers in the second was a great pick for them. 

[NewEra]

36 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Correct, I don't know this. It's not just me, it's everybody. Except a few nuts on these boards who love crazy conspiracy theories.

 

Doing this would be a crime. It would be unethical. And it would be a thing that neither of these guys would do. Much less would McDermott then hire a guy who he knew would be willing to betray him when his back was turned. Hiring Beane after seeing that he was willing to lie and betray his employer would be acting as stupid as the guy who marries the woman who he met by getting her to cheat on her last husband. There are plenty of slowcoaches around who do that kind of thing. But they're addle-pated and you can find a huge majority of them wandering around with their head in their hands a year or two later, saying, "How could I have known she'd cheat on me?"

 

But again, kid yourself if you have to. But pretty much everyone else is going to look at who these guys are and what they stand for and know to expect behavior from them that's congruent with who they are. But plenty of others don't let common sense hold them back. It's fair enough, though it will contribute to being wrong much more often than not.

 

 

I’m not kidding myself.  I don’t know.  I’m

not pretending to know.  I’ll leave that up to everyone else.  

[ngbills]

Tre was not Beane. But providing McD with credit there would give you the below draft picks made by the regime in this late 1st to early 2nd rage.

 

Tre White

Zay Jones

Cody Ford

AJ Epenesa

 

What does this mean? Who knows. Could be a starter or a guy that barely dresses. 

 

 

[FireChans]

22 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Of course. And as a DC, he sure as hell wasn't scouting Temple OTs and East Carolina wide receivers. 

Moss is a lot better than you're giving him credit for. He looked good for the most part. And he's just a rookie anyway.

DC’s don’t scout during the season, but they are privy to the entire process. 
 

Why are we pretending that A. Beane was running the draft illegally for a place he wasn’t hired at yet and B. There is zero chance that the former DC had no insider information?

the silliest argument ever.

[Royale with Cheese]

31 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Yep. He can be. That's my opinion. Sorry you disagree. 

 

You disagree with a lot Front Offices then.  He was going to be between a 2nd and 4th round pick.  He wasn't going undrafted if Buffalo didn't take him.

[Thurman#1]

8 hours ago, Nelius said:

Huh that's a worse list than I would have guessed, thanks for putting it together. Been a DB wasteland the last few years. Surprised at the total lack of impactful offensive players outside of Wayne, so really nothing in 20 years. Addai was alright but he only really had a couple good seasons.

 

 

Here are all the offense guys:

 

2012 WR A.J. Jenkins to San Fran

2010 RB Jahvid Best to Detroit

2009 WR Kenny Britt to Tennessee

2008 TE Dustin Keller to NY Jets

2007 WR Craig Davis to San Diego

2006 RB Joseph Addai to Indy

2005 TE Heath Miller to Pitt

2004 RB Kevin Jones to Detroit

2002 OG Kendall Simmons to Pitt

2001 WR Reggie Wayne to Indy

 

I'd argue Heath Miller  And Dustin Keller probably was too, though career-ending injury didn't leave him with a long career. Kendall Simmons was really good too, till he ruptured his Achilles. Add in Reggie Wayne and that's not too bad a bunch, though injuries hurt them.

[Victory Formation]

19 hours ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

A top guard could be had at that pick, which we definitely need opposite of Feliciano ( who needs to be resigned) . Our line was poor at run and pass blocking until Feliciano came back and went to solid pass blocking and ok run blocking. We really need to improve both lines if we want to take the next step ( better press coverage as well)

 

 

I want Boogie Basham with that first pick. If the draft were today and there was one player that I’d wish would slide to us it’d be Basham. Elite athletic skills, lengthy DE with size and power. I think he’ll be an elite DE in the NFL. May go 5-10 picks before us though.

[ctk232]

22 hours ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

A top guard could be had at that pick, which we definitely need opposite of Feliciano ( who needs to be resigned) . Our line was poor at run and pass blocking until Feliciano came back and went to solid pass blocking and ok run blocking. We really need to improve both lines if we want to take the next step ( better press coverage as well)

 

 

Would love to see OL picks, always. If DWill doesn’t come back RT will be a huge need, and arguably Center would be more of a need than OG unless they eventually plan to slide Mongo to the anchor. Though I’m still not sure who would be had there for the value comparable to other BPAs just yet.

 

I wouldn’t be shocked to see us go defense here, even DB, depending on who is there at 30. KC exploited a lot of weaknesses in our defense, and frankly the entire unit regressed from prior years. Lots of reasons and variables going into that, but would hardly be surprised to see DB/LB (pending Milano’s re-signing)/or DL here in that order of preference.

Edited January 28, 2021 by ctk232

[LABILLBACKER]

8 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

I said dime a dozen backs.

 

I actually wanted CEH but figured he wouldn't be there in the 2nd. Dobbins was my next choice. Moss is just too slow footed and could be easily replaced by an UDFA or cheap FA.... hell I thought Yeldon was the best overall back on the team. 

Yeldon was the best all around back last season. But when you spend two 3rd round picks on slower RB'S you feel obligated to play them. Singletary is awful and Moss is only somewhat better. The Buffalo Bill's will never beat KC and give themselves an opportunity to win a championship without a solid running game. And I don't even suggest a 50/50 balance.  But 30/70 run pass would force a completely different strategy from Andy. If Najee is there at 30 sprint to the podium. 

[Mark Vader]

On 1/27/2021 at 4:13 PM, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

That says more about problems with your thinking than it does about McDermott.

 

Doing that would literally have been stealing from his ownership. It would have been industrial espionage. 

 

It did not happen. But if you feel the need to believe that, go right ahead. There's plenty of room for completel nuttiness in the world. You might want to look in on the "JFK and Elvis are alive and living together on the moon" thing. I hear they've got a few vacancies over there.

You been watching "Bubba Ho-Tep"?

[Reks Ryan]

18 hours ago, Nelius said:

Huh that's a worse list than I would have guessed, thanks for putting it together. Been a DB wasteland the last few years. Surprised at the total lack of impactful offensive players outside of Wayne, so really nothing in 20 years. Addai was alright but he only really had a couple good seasons.

TJ Watt is pretty good.  Would be amazing for the Bills to get an impact pass rusher at 30. 

 

But otherwise, it's a disappointing list. 

[FeelingOnYouboty]

The pick will be Hamsah Nasirildeen. Everybody get acquainted with him now. 
 

Beane and McDermott were hot on Kyle Dugger and Jeremy Chinn last year. He’s in that mold. 
 

Come back to this in late April.

[FeelingOnYouboty]

Other guys I’d love other than Nasirildeen

 

Jordan Smith-DE 6’6 255 UAB

Teven Jenkins-RT Oklahoma State 6’6 320

Aaron Robinson-CB UCF 6’1 185

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, Mark Vader said:

You been watching "Bubba Ho-Tep"?

 

 

No, though I saw it a long time ago. I absolutely revere Joe Lansdale.

26 minutes ago, FeelingOnYouboty said:

The pick will be Hamsah Nasirildeen. Everybody get acquainted with him now. 
 

Beane and McDermott were hot on Kyle Dugger and Jeremy Chinn last year. He’s in that mold. 
 

Come back to this in late April.

 

 

Interesting. I'll check him out. 

[FeelingOnYouboty]

2 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

No, though I saw it a long time ago. I absolutely revere Joe Lansdale.

 

 

Interesting. I'll check him out. 

been tweeting about him all year. He has special gifts! No one is going to stop Kelce but he can bother him. 

[Bob in STL]

On 1/27/2021 at 8:06 PM, Buffalo Barbarian said:

 

If guard is the best player at that spot then we should. Good luck getting a top pass rusher there. Dont need another running back, the guys we have our fine the line just sucks at run blocking.

 

TE would be nice too at 30.

 

 

Agree.  
 

Definitely can find a Guard at 30 that could be a dominant player.  Maybe a strong talented gaurd, with Feliciano at Center, and a healthy, improved Ford at the other guard - maybe that and more commitment could break open the running game?  
 

If they are thinking BPA adding a corner is another possibility.   
 

Would love to strengthen the DL but the premium on DL, especially pass rushers, tells me better value might be at these other positions.   
 

RB can be addressed in later picks and in free agency.  I would love to see them add a back that could catch, and run after catch.