Week 17: Dolphins at Bills - Squish the Fish playoff hopes and dreams

[JMF2006]

14 hours ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

Parker will play and play well. He's a Bills killer for some reason.

 

Bad hammy in cold weather?

 

He gets 5-10 plays and with Tua Taylor at QB he will be lucky to get 2 or 3 targets

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

 

Power Ranking the NFL's 32 starting quarterbacks entering Week 17

 

2. Josh Allen, Bills

 

 

Last week's ranking: 3

 

Week 16 stats: 27-of-36, 320 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT, 35 rush yards

 

Season stats: 69.1 completion %, 288.0 yards/game, 34 TD, 9 INT, 418 rush yards, 8 rush TD

 

Allen higher than Mahomes might strike you as extreme, but these are power rankings, and there's no quarterback in the league hotter than Allen. The guy has had back-to-back four-touchdown games, and when you factor that into his season numbers, yeah, Allen belongs ahead of Mahomes right now.

 

NFL Power Rankings: Are Bills closing in on Chiefs in AFC?

[JMF2006]

They forgot his recieving TD

[BillsMafi$]

Per Jeremy Fowler on sportscenter: Bills expected to play most key players

[Doc]

9 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I don’t think Stills is a practice squad guy.  And if you need a guy to come in at this point, you want someone who knows the offense.

 

I'm betting they add Stills to the PS and call-him-up on gameday, since they're unlimited in the playoffs.  That way you don't have to release anyone. 

 

And as for knowing the system, they might keep keeping it simple for him.  Give him one of those wristband thingies.

 

9 hours ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-week-17-picks-odds-steelers-upset-browns-washington-takes-out-philly-panthers-scare-saints/

 

New England wants -- has to? -- run the ball and the Jets are good at one thing on defense: stopping the run. New York is giving max effort and I'm not sure the same can be said for the Pats, who are probably ready for this nightmare season to end. The Jets can't move in the draft order so why not just go and push the trident Josh Allen jammed in Belichick's chest on Monday a little deeper in Week 17? 
😝

 

If the Cheaters lose to the Jets, that will be embarrassing.  Good luck recruiting FAs, much less on the cheap, after that!

 

39 minutes ago, BillsMafi$ said:

Per Jeremy Fowler on sportscenter: Bills expected to play most key players

 

"...for a series or two."  Again I think they keep Josh in long enough to at least get 40 yards passing and Stef in long enough to get the receiving title.

[YoloinOhio]

1 hour ago, Doc said:

 

I'm betting they add Stills to the PS and call-him-up on gameday, since they're unlimited in the playoffs.  That way you don't have to release anyone. 

 

And as for knowing the system, they might keep keeping it simple for him.  Give him one of those wristband thingies.

 

 

If the Cheaters lose to the Jets, that will be embarrassing.  Good luck recruiting FAs, much less on the cheap, after that!

 

 

"...for a series or two."  Again I think they keep Josh in long enough to at least get 40 yards passing and Stef in long enough to get the receiving title.

Well it depends how much the bills value the 2 seed. If they want it, they need to play the starters. The browns just closed their facility again today after a coach tested positive. They have 5 players out tomorrow. They have had maybe one real practice this week. There is no sure thing that the Steelers lose tomorrow. 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

3 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Well it depends how much the bills value the 2 seed. If they want it, they need to play the starters. The browns just closed their facility again today after a coach tested positive. They have 5 players out tomorrow. They have had maybe one real practice this week. There is no sure thing that the Steelers lose tomorrow. 

Essentially a win gives us(Pitt wins/Cleve wins);

 

 Miami (again) or Indy, a loss gets us Baltimore or Cleveland.

 

Ideal scenario for me, we play our guys a quarter and get a lead, no injuries, ride it out and the backups hold on for a win.

 

Worst case ahh don't go there

[YoloinOhio]

11 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

Essentially a win gives us(Pitt wins/Cleve wins);

 

 Miami (again) or Indy, a loss gets us Baltimore or Cleveland.

 

Ideal scenario for me, we play our guys a quarter and get a lead, no injuries, ride it out and the backups hold on for a win.

 

Worst case ahh don't go there

Trust me I do not want to play the starters for any significant length of time. But I see both sides. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

They better be all in or all out. This sort of “play it by ear approach” seems like the worst way to to approach a game. To quote myself:
 

“Daniel-san, must talk. Walk on road. Walk right side, safe. Walk left side, safe. Walk middle, sooner or later, [squish] get squish, just like grape. Here football, same thing. Either you football do, yes, or football do, no. You football do, guess so, [squish] just like grape.”

 

I don't think OBD is "playing it by ear" at all.   McDermott said straight out on Tuesday morning that they'd discussed it and they had a plan that he considered best for the team.   He also said he was going to keep it in house.

 

There have been some media reports by people who should know better that the Bills haven't "made up their mind yet".  But that is NOT what McDermott has said.  He has consistently said since Tuesday morning that the team decided on a plan and he was going to keep it in house.

[whatdrought]

As someone said above, I expect they will put Josh in long enough to get the passing record, and to give Diggs a lock on the receiving lead. It also helps keep rust off, and it gives them a picture of the Dolphins if we end up facing them in WC week.

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

The funny thing is..and this is so arrogant I’m not used to speaking this way about the bills: The Bills might figure, Josh for 2 drives might get 10-14 points. And that might be enough to beat the dolphins offense with Tua. If you go Barkley the whole game, 14 points is a stretch (against the dolphins Defense) McDermott might want to just give Allen a bit of play for rhythm purposes and also use him to get them ahead. Then let the defense eat up an incredibly overrated Tua.

[whatdrought]

1 minute ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

The funny thing is..and this is so arrogant I’m not used to speaking this way about the bills: The Bills might figure, Josh for 2 drives might get 10-14 points. And that might be enough to beat the dolphins offense with Tua. If you go Barkley the whole game, 14 points is a stretch (against the dolphins Defense) McDermott might want to just give Allen a bit of play for rhythm purposes and also use him to get them ahead. Then let the defense eat up an incredibly overrated Tua.

I’ve had the same thought, though the Dolphins defense is no joke. 

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

Just now, whatdrought said:

I’ve had the same thought, though the Dolphins defense is no joke. 

Absolutely. If you go Barkley from the Starr with a very desperate Dolphins defense, they might beat us 13-3. If you start Josh he probably shreds them. Gets us ahead and then makes them have to score on us. I’m not really worried about the game that much. All I want is to get out healthy. If nobody played, I’m good. I do trust this team to do the right thing and I’m not 100% sure we won’t win even with backups. I’d much rather put Barkley in the isolation now until the playoffs and start Fromm or Webb. I’d like to see what they have. But like I said, I trust these guys.

[Doc]

11 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

The funny thing is..and this is so arrogant I’m not used to speaking this way about the bills: The Bills might figure, Josh for 2 drives might get 10-14 points. And that might be enough to beat the dolphins offense with Tua. If you go Barkley the whole game, 14 points is a stretch (against the dolphins Defense) McDermott might want to just give Allen a bit of play for rhythm purposes and also use him to get them ahead. Then let the defense eat up an incredibly overrated Tua.

 

Yeah but that assumes the Bills will play their starting defense the whole game.  And Barkley with the backup WRs is a loss for sure.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

10 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

I’ve had the same thought, though the Dolphins defense is no joke. 

 

That would be a "bad plan" IMO...note that vs. NE, it took us a couple of drives to diagnose what they were doing on D and get rolling.

[Cruiserplayer]

Please whatever the plan: “Don’t let Barkley throw to Diggs!”

[Penfield45]

The closer we get to Sunday the less faith I have in the browns winning 

 

they are still having issues with Covid. I really want to avoid the Ravens so maybe we should play our starters and try to build a lead 

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

4 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Yeah but that assumes the Bills will play their starting defense the whole game.  And Barkley with the backup WRs is a loss for sure.

Nah I think we have pretty solid depth on defense. I would think you sit 55, 49,58,27,21,23 and you are probably still pretty good. I don’t think the fall off from starters to backups on defense is huge. Tre White and Poyer to the next guy is massive but we have good depth. It would be a perfect game to see what Dane Jackson could do but I’m not sure what’s happening with that situation. I really do not fear Tua...at all. If we can stop the run, it’s going to be a long day for Miami.

[hemma]

9 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

Nah I think we have pretty solid depth on defense. I would think you sit 55, 49,58,27,21,23 and you are probably still pretty good. I don’t think the fall off from starters to backups on defense is huge. Tre White and Poyer to the next guy is massive but we have good depth. It would be a perfect game to see what Dane Jackson could do but I’m not sure what’s happening with that situation. I really do not fear Tua...at all. If we can stop the run, it’s going to be a long day for Miami.

I really hope we get to see him again.  He may be another Beane & staff gem.... and a 7th rounder to boot!

[Punching Bag]

On 12/31/2020 at 4:26 PM, SomeDudeAtHome said:

 

WTF does "fins up" even mean? I keep seeing this all over social media and it's the dumbest team slogan I have ever read. 

 

Fins up usually happen when fish die.  Seen it multiple times in our fish tank.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

30 minutes ago, Cruiserplayer said:

Please whatever the plan: “Don’t let Barkley throw to Diggs!”

More like: “don’t let Barkley throw near Diggs.”

[Freddie's Dead]

Can't handle another 24 hours....PLAY THE GAME NOW!!!!

[Punching Bag]

10 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

I don't disagree.  I think I'd sit everyone and take my chances that the Browns can't screw this up bc the Steelers will be resting half the starters.

 

Is there a rule about lying to press? No otherwise Billicheat would have much higher number of rules violated.

 

If a team thought best way to win would they lie to press? Yes.

 

Do you think a coach which attempted to trip a player would be worried about it? No.

 

I would not depend upon Mike Tomlin keeping his word about resting starters if he felt he could fool his old teammate.

[JMF2006]

I bet Josh and Company start the game and try to get a couple TD's.

 

With a lead and looking at the out of town scoreboard will determine how much they play.

[Pokebball]

I don't like relying on "another team" to get me what I want.  If I don't have the 2 seed, and I want the 2 seed, I do what I have control of to get the 2 seed.  If we played after the Browns Steelers game, and knew we had the 2 seed wrapped up, I can see playing it safe.  If we rest our starters, we don't care about the 2 seed.  This is the way I see it.

1 minute ago, JMF2006 said:

I bet Josh and Company start the game and try to get a couple TD's.

 

With a lead and looking at the out of town scoreboard will determine how much they play.

I guess the follow up question to this opinion is, do you think our starters stay in if we and/or the Browns do not get a big enough lead?

[JMF2006]

1 minute ago, Pokebball said:

I don't like relying on "another team" to get me what I want.  If I don't have the 2 seed, and I want the 2 seed, I do what I have control of to get the 2 seed.  If we played after the Browns Steelers game, and knew we had the 2 seed wrapped up, I can see playing it safe.  If we rest our starters, we don't care about the 2 seed.  This is the way I see it.

 

Thats why the league set the final Sunday schedule after week 16.

 

Fairness for all.......I think they did a good job.l 

3 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

I don't like relying on "another team" to get me what I want.  If I don't have the 2 seed, and I want the 2 seed, I do what I have control of to get the 2 seed.  If we played after the Browns Steelers game, and knew we had the 2 seed wrapped up, I can see playing it safe.  If we rest our starters, we don't care about the 2 seed.  This is the way I see it.

I guess the follow up question to this opinion is, do you think our starters stay in if we and/or the Browns do not get a big enough lead?

 

It shouldn't take more than a half to get a pretty good lead if Josh dissects them like a laboratory frog

 

He has done it to just about every team since Arizona.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, whatdrought said:

As someone said above, I expect they will put Josh in long enough to get the passing record, and to give Diggs a lock on the receiving lead. It also helps keep rust off, and it gives them a picture of the Dolphins if we end up facing them in WC week.

 

TBH, if they play Josh or Diggs in pursuit of personal records when they otherwise aren't trying to win, I think that would be short-sighted.

 

10 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

I don't like relying on "another team" to get me what I want.  If I don't have the 2 seed, and I want the 2 seed, I do what I have control of to get the 2 seed.  If we played after the Browns Steelers game, and knew we had the 2 seed wrapped up, I can see playing it safe.  If we rest our starters, we don't care about the 2 seed.  This is the way I see it.

 

This.  If the #2 seed is important and you want it, play for it.

If you want to save your starters, save your starters and don't worry about the #2 seed.

 

But don't half-ass it.

[wjag]

Chris  Simms speculated that they would play the starters. He said the decision would be made by Wednesday and executed by the team on Thursday and Friday.  Practice closed to press on Wednesday but opened later in week. I strongly suspect press knows and is keeping a lid on it. We’ll know soon enough.  Count me in the camp of pedal  to the metal. I think there is chance to hone play against a stout defense.   

Edited January 2, 2021 by wjag

[fergie's ire]

Bojorquez has 37 punts.  2.5 punts per game are needed to qualify for rankings.  Therefore, if he has 2 or fewer points, he does not qualify.  I know it is not a good reason to risk players being injured....but am I the only one who thinks it would be really cool to have a punter play the entire year and still not qualify?

[YoloinOhio]

 

[MJS]

1 hour ago, Freddie's Dead said:

Can't handle another 24 hours....PLAY THE GAME NOW!!!!

I'm the same. I'm so bored and just want them to play. I'm bored with all the threads on TBD and need another Bills injection.

36 minutes ago, wjag said:

Chris  Simms speculated that they would play the starters. He said the decision would be made by Wednesday and executed by the team on Thursday and Friday.  Practice closed to press on Wednesday but opened later in week. I strongly suspect press knows and is keeping a lid on it. We’ll know soon enough.  Count me in the camp of pedal  to the metal. I think there is chance to hone play against a stout defense.   

I would play them for the first half at least.

[BillsFan619]

5 hours ago, BillsMafi$ said:

Per Jeremy Fowler on sportscenter: Bills expected to play most key players

Man I hope so. We need to be playing for the #2 seed.

[BillsFan619]

3 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

Well it depends how much the bills value the 2 seed. If they want it, they need to play the starters. The browns just closed their facility again today after a coach tested positive. They have 5 players out tomorrow. They have had maybe one real practice this week. There is no sure thing that the Steelers lose tomorrow. 

Without being ridiculous, I do hope they value the #2 seed.

 

I get that injuries could happen but the #2 seed is still valuable and important. It will impact who we play and it will assure us two home playoff games. The latter may not seem as valuable this year but one can’t underestimate what being in their usual routine in their hometown will be for a young team. Also, with no travel, less likely to accidentally catch Covid.

[finn]

3 hours ago, whatdrought said:

As someone said above, I expect they will put Josh in long enough to get the passing record, and to give Diggs a lock on the receiving lead. It also helps keep rust off, and it gives them a picture of the Dolphins if we end up facing them in WC week.

I don't think setting records or league leads will factor at all in McDermott's decision. He'll make his decision based on football, not vanity or bragging rights. For this reason, you play the starters so Allen reestablishes his connection to Brown, and, ideally, build a lead for Barkley (who's going to need it; did you ever see his career stats?) so we have take the two seed if Pittsburgh wins. I see him playing the starters for a quarter then sitting them down. But I don't see him putting them back even if Cleveland wins. That sends the wrong signal, that we're ducking the Ravens. 

[Penfield45]

Really interested to see how Brown comes back

 

man if we can get him rolling again, Beasley healthy and Stills all together for the wildcard round that would be essential 

 

let’s pray it’s nice weather in Buffalo next weekend 

[BillsFan619]

17 minutes ago, Penfield45 said:

Really interested to see how Brown comes back

 

man if we can get him rolling again, Beasley healthy and Stills all together for the wildcard round that would be essential 

 

let’s pray it’s nice weather in Buffalo next weekend 

Bro, the 4WR sets of those four would be insane. They have almost seemed unstoppable without brown or stills. Add them both, with a healthy Beasley, it gets me pumped just thinking about it.

 

Let’s go!!!

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

14 hours ago, stevewin said:

What has to happen this weekend for Bills to be matched with Balt in first round - is it still possible?

The easiest way to look at it is this: the Bills or the Browns need to win. Otherwise, we are more than likely playing the Ravens. See attached for all scenarios.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, Doc said:

Yeah but that assumes the Bills will play their starting defense the whole game.  And Barkley with the backup WRs is a loss for sure.

 

Last year week 17, the Bills defense had so much depth that we throttled the Jets starters for 3 quarters despite Bills offense giving away a fumble and a pick in the 3rd.  It wasn't until the 4th Q (and I think we were playing Isaiah McKenzie at CB by then) that they managed a TD then a 2nd FG off a 2nd Barkley pick.  Now the Jets did not have an explosive offense last season, but they were a 7-9 team with a mid-level D.

 

I'm not sure we're there this year on D, but I'm also not hella-impressed with the Tua-led Dolphins offense - maybe I'm wrong and I should be.

[YoloinOhio]

 

[Doc]

10 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Last year week 17, the Bills defense had so much depth that we throttled the Jets starters for 3 quarters despite Bills offense giving away a fumble and a pick in the 3rd.  It wasn't until the 4th Q (and I think we were playing Isaiah McKenzie at CB by then) that they managed a TD then a 2nd FG off a 2nd Barkley pick.  Now the Jets did not have an explosive offense last season, but they were a 7-9 team with a mid-level D.

 

I'm not sure we're there this year on D, but I'm also not hella-impressed with the Tua-led Dolphins offense - maybe I'm wrong and I should be.

 

I'm not either, but their defense is good.  And their team overall is still better than the Jets were.