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Week 9: Seahawks at Bills


BillsMafi$

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https://twitter.com/thadbrown7/status/1324063377476505600?s=20

 

How he does this per SI article: 

Magic Tricks

"Dad" Jokes

 

 

 

Maybe with regard to some of the guys who are having hard times with illness or playing through injury? 

Dawson Knox, Mitch Morse, Cody Ford, Brian Winters, Jon Feliciano, John Brown, Cole Beasley and that's just on offense -

Quite a list of guys who have reason to need some help keeping their spirits up actually!!!!

 

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11 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

https://twitter.com/thadbrown7/status/1324063377476505600?s=20

 

How he does this per SI article: 

Magic Tricks

"Dad" Jokes

 

 

 

Maybe with regard to some of the guys who are having hard times with illness or playing through injury? 

Dawson Knox, Mitch Morse, Cody Ford, Brian Winters, Jon Feliciano, John Brown, Cole Beasley and that's just on offense -

Quite a list of guys who have reason to need some help keeping their spirits up actually!!!!

 


Um, why are their spirits down? Maybe it’s the global pandemic, the civil unrest, or the typical rigors of the most physical sport in the world. 🙄

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1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said:

I heard joe Marino go over some of these numbers on his podcast - the passing yards given up per game is an average of like 358! They aren’t bad vs the run but I wonder what the attempts are there because teams always trying to keep up might pass a lot more 


Feels like a reverse of us... we’re pretty good against the pass statistically cause everyone runs on us and never has to pass.

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3 hours ago, Kemp said:

 

I just presented stats provided by someone else. You can disagree with the conclusions, but not the data.

Not debating those facts. But the assumption JA is forcing to Diggs. And do we have D snap count vs previous opponents? If I missed that my bad. I also was just reiterating what Kubiak said about JA’s play. I have a hard time saying that Pats game was JA best performance, but it appears he is seeing the D and switching to run in a better way. I think we all agree we need to see a better overall performance from the O and it starts with JA. 

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1 hour ago, Johnnycage46 said:

John Brown not practicing is concerning again.  He was a full-go all 3 practice days last week (while still being on the injury report with a "knee").  Hopefully just a rest day.  We need as many of our WRs as possible to keep up with Seattle.

 

I'm hoping that's what it is too, as well as for Hughes Johnson Winters and Milano (yikes! hurts typing all that)

 

I guess we'll see tomorrow.

 

Extra tidbit: Motor said they ran 1:1 in pads last Weds.  Diggs in his post-practice said they did it again today, "good on good".   So that might be an extra motivation I guess to keep a guy out of practice if it's "on the fence" whether he should be limited or out.

 

 

 

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7 hours ago, whatdrought said:


Feels like a reverse of us... we’re pretty good against the pass statistically cause everyone runs on us and never has to pass.

 

Not sure if there is any aspect of the game that our defense is arguably "good" at... we have been poor at rush defense and average at pass defense. We give up just a few less yards per game than NE and folks saw how we were able to gash them. It has been a huge drop for us this year - the kind that will keep a GM like Beane up at night analyzing what he could have done better and what needs to change.

 

Probably the two biggest stats the Bills should be able to correct is missed tackles and penalties. We have a lot of them, week after week we see poor fundamentals shedding blocks, high arm tackles, overrunning plays, and straight-up guys just missing tackles that piss away the good play that happens in fits and spurts, leading to long gainers and/or 3rd down conversions. We are also near the top of the league in penalties and yards assessed via penalties at 53 penalties for 501 yards.

 

If your defense is equally poor executing consistently against the pass or the run then you get the kind of games we have seen year. Nail-biting games that come down to the wire every week, where any turnovers or mistakes by the offense is magnified because their times up at bat are limited by the long drives given up by the defense. There is little margin for error.

 

Because the games are so tight and our defense gets gashed in the 2nd half of games, we really need our offense to clean up its red-zone scoring and capitalize on every chance we get down there.

 

 

 

 

Edited by WideNine
Rankings for total yards yielded by defense missed that most teams have only played 7 games.
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5 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think QLBills is responding to your statement "Without re-reading it, I believe it did say that Allen is too locked in on his primary, which is usually Diggs."

"It" being Matt Fairburn's Athletic article

 

I did not see that conclusion in the piece you linked, much less statistics backing it up.  Here is the quote in question:

8. In the last four games, Allen is 18-for-46 for 293 yards, one touchdown and four interceptions on passes that travel at least 10 yards in the air. That’s good for a passer rating of 32.2, worst in the league on those passes in that time frame. Expand that to passes 15 yards or more in the air, and Allen’s passer rating is second worst, ahead of only Sam Darnold in the last four games. It’s not as if the Bills aren’t giving him chances. Only four quarterbacks have thrown the ball 10 or more yards downfield more than Allen has in the last four weeks. He also had his top four receivers healthy on Sunday. His downfield passing game has disappeared, and if Allen can’t get it back, this offense will hover around the league average. Allen was one of the best downfield passers in football through the first month of the season. Defenses have adjusted to take it away, but Allen needs to find an answer.

 

There's nothing in there about forcing balls to Diggs, much less data to support that, though that arguably has happened a handful of times.

 

Must have read that elsewhere. Been up since 2:30 AM, so I'm probably loopy.

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1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said:

 


 

the BYE week can’t come soon enough. 😫 

3 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

I keep expecting Josh to come off this list.  How do you suppose he remains on it.  Is this shoulder injury just not healing?  Seems odd to me.


 

The Belicheat way.  List everyone on the report. 
 

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28 minutes ago, Just Joshin' said:

In central Texas it will be KC/Carolina.  That is not a contest on paper whereas the Bills/Seahawks has the potential to be the best game of the week.

 

KC is the media darling right now, but I don't think the Bills v Hawks is that underrepresented.

 

Look at Washington/Giants, although they do have the large cities covered.

 

At least we won Fairbanks, Anchorage, and Honolulu :)

 

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

I keep expecting Josh to come off this list.  How do you suppose he remains on it.  Is this shoulder injury just not healing?  Seems odd to me.

He’s wearing some kind of sleeve or brace I believe so they probably are playing it safe to list him so they don’t get the wrath of roger 

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34 minutes ago, WideNine said:

Not sure if there is any aspect of the game that our defense is arguably "good" at... going into the Patriots game we were 24th in pass defense and 25th in run defense - basically we are below average across the board in defense. It has been a huge drop for us this year - the kind that will keep a GM like Beane up at night analyzing what he could have done better and what needs to change.

 

Wondering where you obtained these rankings? I have the Bills as overall defensively #15 on PPG, #16 on YPG, both before and after the Pats game.

Before, #15 for pass ypg and #21 for rush ypg.  After, #11 for pass ypg and #26 for rush ypg.

 

Of note that because of the schedule changes, an unusually large # of teams have different # of games so sources like pro football reference and NFL.com, so that skews data a bit.  Above rankings are corrected for # games.

 

Overall I'd say we're average in defense, rush defense numbers are overall skewed by the KC game where we allowed more than 2x the league average of rush ypg.

 

34 minutes ago, WideNine said:

Probably the two biggest stats the Bills should be able to correct is missed tackles and penalties. We have a lot of them, week after week we see poor fundamentals shedding blocks, high arm tackles, overrunning plays, and straight-up guys just missing tackles that piss away the good play that happens in fits and spurts, leading to long gainers and/or 3rd down conversions. We are also near the top of the league in penalties and yards assessed via penalties at 53 penalties for 501 yards.

 

Agreed

 

34 minutes ago, WideNine said:

If your defense is equally poor executing consistently against the pass or the run then you get the kind of games we have seen year. Nail-biting games that come down to the wire every week, where any turnovers or mistakes by the offense is magnified because their times up at bat are limited by the long drives given up by the defense. There is little margin for error.

 

Because the games are so tight and our defense gets gashed in the 2nd half of games, we really need our offense to clean up its red-zone scoring and capitalize on every chance we get down there.

 

Agreed with that last.

 

The Bills defense is a bit of a mystery wrapped in an enigma to me.  Overall we're exactly mediocre on D.  15th for PPG, 16th for YPG.

Looking at rush D, we're precisely split: 4 games worse than league average (one by a lot); 4 games better than league average.

Pass D, we're overall better than league average, almost top 10 - yet we have 6 games where we've given up worse than league average pass yards.

I don't quite know what to make of it.  That burning smell is me thinking about it.

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Just noticed, the next three games are against the top 3 offensive teams in the NFL as measured by yds/game.  They've played the 4th (KC) and 5th (Tenn) rated teams as well.

Edited by TPS
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35 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

I keep expecting Josh to come off this list.  How do you suppose he remains on it.  Is this shoulder injury just not healing?  Seems odd to me.

 

If you read Bangedupbills.com on it, he believes Josh may be playing through a torn labrum or rotator cuff in his L shoulder which will require a brace through the season.  For those unfamiliar, BangedupBills is the blog name of Physical Therapist Dr Kyle Trimble.

 

Before Week 8 NE:

QB Josh Allen (Left shoulder)

I continue to highlight Allen’s presence on the injury report because he clearly did something to the shoulder as evident with the shoulder brace. He’s going to continue playing through it but we’ve seen him have less scrambles and more designed runs or stay in the pocket. I still believe he injured the labrum or the rotator cuff. He continues to practice and play, but there is concern that he re-injures it at some point with a hard hit.

 

Before Week 7 Jets:

QB Josh Allen (left shoulder)

Allen continues to deal with a left shoulder injury sustained in the Raiders game. Against the Titans and Chiefs, he has struggled for accuracy and has not looked himself while wearing a shoulder brace to protect the area. 

When mom says no, but dad says yes.#BUFvsNYJ | #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/O4PdWkgmGG

— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) October 25, 2020

He came out sporting a new brace to protect the shoulder but it appears that this is less restrictive than his previous one. I was able to observe that under the shoulder brace, he did have kinesiotape which likely helped support the shoulder but allowed him change the brace without sacrificing stability. It’s also noted that he ditched the brace last week in the 4th quarter against the Chiefs in order to improve his throwing mechanics. 

I will expect to continue to see him wear the brace to protect the shoulder until the end of the season. 

 

He may be healing somewhat - he apparently has switched to kinesiotape + a less restrictive brace and has even done without the brace at times.  Bangedup believes the injury or the combination of the injury/brace has affected his throwing motion and led to a decrease in accuracy during the Titans and KC games.  This also may be something he is working through. 

 

It's something our press corps has been notably silent about and has me curious if that's actually a condition of getting press access not to grill the players on the extent to which an injury is affecting them or grill the coaches about the impact of a player's injuries.

 

 

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On 11/1/2020 at 10:11 PM, Buffalo Timmy said:

This is the game that I think will tell us more about this team then any other game this year. Seattle might roll us, which would be telling, or we might fight and have a chance to win, but either way I think we learn a lot this week.

https://jodywebster.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/88629-Jim-Carrey-laughing-gif-Liar-L-Gtdr.gif

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1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm hoping that's what it is too, as well as for Hughes Johnson Winters and Milano (yikes! hurts typing all that)

 

I guess we'll see tomorrow.

 

Extra tidbit: Motor said they ran 1:1 in pads last Weds.  Diggs in his post-practice said they did it again today, "good on good".   So that might be an extra motivation I guess to keep a guy out of practice if it's "on the fence" whether he should be limited or out.

 

 

 

 

I do like the 1s vs 1s practice idea.  It makes sense if you can fit it into your practice schedule.  Makes each unit bring their A game.  Coach is coachin' em up

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26 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

If you read Bangedupbills.com on it, he believes Josh may be playing through a torn labrum or rotator cuff in his L shoulder which will require a brace through the season.  For those unfamiliar, BangedupBills is the blog name of Physical Therapist Dr Kyle Trimble.

 

Before Week 8 NE:

QB Josh Allen (Left shoulder)

I continue to highlight Allen’s presence on the injury report because he clearly did something to the shoulder as evident with the shoulder brace. He’s going to continue playing through it but we’ve seen him have less scrambles and more designed runs or stay in the pocket. I still believe he injured the labrum or the rotator cuff. He continues to practice and play, but there is concern that he re-injures it at some point with a hard hit.

 

Before Week 7 Jets:

QB Josh Allen (left shoulder)

Allen continues to deal with a left shoulder injury sustained in the Raiders game. Against the Titans and Chiefs, he has struggled for accuracy and has not looked himself while wearing a shoulder brace to protect the area. 

When mom says no, but dad says yes.#BUFvsNYJ | #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/O4PdWkgmGG

— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) October 25, 2020

He came out sporting a new brace to protect the shoulder but it appears that this is less restrictive than his previous one. I was able to observe that under the shoulder brace, he did have kinesiotape which likely helped support the shoulder but allowed him change the brace without sacrificing stability. It’s also noted that he ditched the brace last week in the 4th quarter against the Chiefs in order to improve his throwing mechanics. 

I will expect to continue to see him wear the brace to protect the shoulder until the end of the season. 

 

He may be healing somewhat - he apparently has switched to kinesiotape + a less restrictive brace and has even done without the brace at times.  Bangedup believes the injury or the combination of the injury/brace has affected his throwing motion and led to a decrease in accuracy during the Titans and KC games.  This also may be something he is working through. 

 

It's something our press corps has been notably silent about and has me curious if that's actually a condition of getting press access not to grill the players on the extent to which an injury is affecting them or grill the coaches about the impact of a player's injuries.

 

 

I and others on this sight have noted Josh hasn't been the same since that injury.  When you think about it, Josh has worked hard off season to improve his mechanics.  When a QB throws, his whole body is involved.  It stands to reason that an injury and a restrictive brace would mess with his mechanics.

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49 minutes ago, TPS said:

Just noticed, the next three games are against the top 3 offensive teams in the NFL as measured by yds/game.  They've played the 4th (KC) and 5th (Tenn) rated teams as well.


we also come up against some top 5 defenses 

 

Chargers, SF, Denver 

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On 11/1/2020 at 6:52 PM, BillsMafi$ said:

per Mike Clay:
 

The Seahawks' offense has scored 4+ TDs in every game this season. Russ has thrown at least 3 in all but one game.

 

 

yikes for this weeks game 

doesn't look good this week with Morse, Brown probably out.  Not gonna outscore them if its a track meet.  All I can think of is run the ball, throw short against their zone D , keep their offense off the field and win a close one with a lower score.   Smoke is a huge part of this offense,  He needs to get healthy.   The Bye week can't come soon enough for this team.  

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3 minutes ago, BillsMafi$ said:

The Seahawks are on pace to allow 7,376 yards this season, which would be an NFL record.
 

 

If out offense doesn’t produce Sunday. There’s some real issues 

We will put up 380 yards and score 19.5 points...😉

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