Week 9: Seahawks at Bills

[YoloinOhio]

Y

 

[PaattMaann]

would be great to see Hyde return this week. Still in protocol and limited today...cant tell if thats a good or bad sign. 

 

I highly doubt we get Mitch back so im happy to see Ford at least back limited today.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

11 minutes ago, Kemp said:

I just presented stats provided by someone else. You can disagree with the conclusions, but not the data.

 

I think QLBills is responding to your statement "Without re-reading it, I believe it did say that Allen is too locked in on his primary, which is usually Diggs."

"It" being Matt Fairburn's Athletic article

 

I did not see that conclusion in the piece you linked, much less statistics backing it up.  Here is the quote in question:

8. In the last four games, Allen is 18-for-46 for 293 yards, one touchdown and four interceptions on passes that travel at least 10 yards in the air. That’s good for a passer rating of 32.2, worst in the league on those passes in that time frame. Expand that to passes 15 yards or more in the air, and Allen’s passer rating is second worst, ahead of only Sam Darnold in the last four games. It’s not as if the Bills aren’t giving him chances. Only four quarterbacks have thrown the ball 10 or more yards downfield more than Allen has in the last four weeks. He also had his top four receivers healthy on Sunday. His downfield passing game has disappeared, and if Allen can’t get it back, this offense will hover around the league average. Allen was one of the best downfield passers in football through the first month of the season. Defenses have adjusted to take it away, but Allen needs to find an answer.

 

There's nothing in there about forcing balls to Diggs, much less data to support that, though that arguably has happened a handful of times.

[YoloinOhio]

9 minutes ago, PaattMaann said:

would be great to see Hyde return this week. Still in protocol and limited today...cant tell if thats a good or bad sign. 

 

I highly doubt we get Mitch back so im happy to see Ford at least back limited today.

Good sign that he’s back to practice. He didn’t practice at all last week. Trending the right direction to be cleared for Sunday 

 

 

[Scott7975]

3 hours ago, Stank_Nasty said:

You dont believe hard numbers that say thers merit to the argument? That makes sense. Ok... Also if its not new to you, dont act oblivious to the topic. It doesnt make you look super smart, just difficult.

 

.... I'm not gonna pretend to understand why it seems to affect fine tuned pro's or say that i agree that it should or shouldnt. But there is data to show that it is a factor. Do i think its overblown? Yes. Is there numbers that say it can be a factor though? Yes.

Probably mostly effected by playing at what would be 11 am to them. Probably not much different but they are use to routine its still a little different. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, YoloinOhio said:

Good sign that he’s back to practice. He didn’t practice at all last week. Trending the right direction to be cleared for Sunday 

 

Although TBH I was impressed by Dean Marlowe.

 

 

 

Good sign that Ford is at least practicing.  Concerning that John Brown and Matt Milano are not practicing, although hopefully it's precautionary to let the soreness wear off more and assess where they are.

 

 

[Scott7975]

3 hours ago, JohnNord said:

I’m telling you... The Bills need to establish the run and take short throws to sustain long drives.  Take some serious time off the clock.  You can’t really stop Seattle’s offense but you if you can move the ball, you can limit possessions and keep them off the field.   If you can get a few stops on a few of those possessions you can win.

 

The Bills will need to score points and won’t be able to win 24-21.  But I feel they can limit scoring opportunities

That can also be a detriment. Long drives take more plays. More plays is more opportunities for mistakes. It takes more perfect ball to have long drives. A team is also behind the sticks more often. 

[YoloinOhio]

6 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

That can also be a detriment. Long drives take more plays. More plays is more opportunities for mistakes. It takes more perfect ball to have long drives. A team is also behind the sticks more often. 

The Bills are #1 in the league on 3rd down conversions so I’m not worried about that really vs this D 

[Scott7975]

6 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

The Bills are #1 in the league on 3rd down conversions so I’m not worried about that really vs this D 

Drops, miscues, penalties happen too. 

[YoloinOhio]

 

 

 

[eball]

Blue on blue this week.  Didn't copy the tweet from the Bills but it's legit.

[Johnnycage46]

4 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

 

Assuming Hyde being limited is still his concussion...if so, must be a bad one (the hit upon re-watching was pretty big).  Hope he's healthy and ready for Sunday, we'll need him back there.

[YoloinOhio]

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

 

I find it promising that apparently Mongo is practicing and not in a red "no contact".   Hopefully that means his pec held up fine.  So much for "snap count" or 2-3 weeks to get back into football shape:

 

 

 

[Bronxbomber21]

Darron Lee looks like a DB

When are we gonna see the All Reds or throwbacks

[YoloinOhio]

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

10 minutes ago, Johnnycage46 said:

 

Assuming Hyde being limited is still his concussion...if so, must be a bad one (the hit upon re-watching was pretty big).  Hope he's healthy and ready for Sunday, we'll need him back there.

 

Apparently the average "time out" for concussion is 10 days.  So he's just a bit over average duration at this point (11 days) and apparently in Stage 4.  If he's OK tomorrow am, reexamination and Go Baby!

[Greg S]

3 minutes ago, Bronxbomber21 said:

Darron Lee looks like a DB

When are we gonna see the All Reds or throwbacks

 

All white throwbacks will probably be worn Week 12 vs the Chargers. The Chargers already posted they will be wearing the all navy blues at Buffalo that week so the Bills will be in white.

http://www.gridiron-uniforms.com/GUD/controller/controller.php?action=weekly&year=2020&week=12&league=NFL

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 minutes ago, Bronxbomber21 said:

Darron Lee looks like a DB

When are we gonna see the All Reds or throwbacks

 

6'1" 232 lb DB?  🤔

[YoloinOhio]

 

[YoloinOhio]

Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

6'1" 232 lb DB?  🤔

Cool let him cover DK metcalf!

[WideNine]

4 hours ago, Stank_Nasty said:

i'm fairly certain there's plenty of stats that show west and east coast teams have a bit more trouble when they have to travel multiple time zones. its not huge or anything but its there.... also i had assumed every football fan has heard about this. its something that gets brought up amongst analysts quite a bit . brand new to you i guess... thats odd to me.

right. its a common talking point when these types of games come up. i'm surprised to see someone new to the concept.

 

I am sure there are individual outliers that get aggregated into the mix, but some teams handle coast-to-coast travel better than others.

 

Carroll has been around a long time, I am sure he has a set routine for his team traveling. I don't think jet-lag is anything McD is going to count on. Going to be a tough game and Wilson is playing at a very high level with a ton of confidence. Against Cam McD did not have any real respect for his passing ability. I say that because we consistently cheated a lot of bodies up to the line and loaded the box. Having all those guys play close to the LOS disguised a lot of the ugly this team has had getting push, creating pressure, and filling gaps against the run. We will not have that luxury against Wilson.

 

This is going to be a very tough game for our defense and we will need our offense to grind out some long possessions, and our Special Teams to tilt the field to have a shot at knocking these guys off.

 

 

[nucci]

14 minutes ago, Bronxbomber21 said:

Darron Lee looks like a DB

When are we gonna see the All Reds or throwbacks

hopefully never again

[Slippery Rubber Mats]

20 minutes ago, nucci said:

hopefully never again

I wish they wore all reds more often. I love them. Such a clean, unique look.

 

Players apparently love them. Look good, feel good, play good.

Edited November 4, 2020 by Tuel Time

[Klaus]

23 minutes ago, WideNine said:

 

I am sure there are individual outliers that get aggregated into the mix, but some teams handle coast-to-coast travel better than others.

 

Carroll has been around a long time, I am sure he has a set routine for his team traveling. I don't think jet-lag is anything McD is going to count on. Going to be a tough game and Wilson is playing at a very high level with a ton of confidence. Against Cam McD did not have any real respect for his passing ability. I say that because we consistently cheated a lot of bodies up to the line and loaded the box. Having all those guys play close to the LOS disguised a lot of the ugly this team has had getting push, creating pressure, and filling gaps against the run. We will not have that luxury against Wilson.

 

This is going to be a very tough game for our defense and we will need our offense to grind out some long possessions, and our Special Teams to tilt the field to have a shot at knocking these guys off.

 

 

 

From 2010 to 2018 Seattle was outscored 75 to 0 in the first half of playoff games starting at 1pm EST (all West and Mountain teams were outscored 210 to 55 over that period of time). 

 

So they have been slow starters in the past. Hope that holds true Sunday and then Allen can keep the offence rolling in the 2nd half. 

[BornAgainBillsFan]

31 minutes ago, nucci said:

hopefully never again

 

Agree 100% - It's like staring at the sun for too long. After every "all red" game I see spots for days.

[YoloinOhio]

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Some facts and request for more:

                     

Seahawks Defensive PPG given up: 28

Bills Defensive PPG given up: 25

 

Seahawks Defensive YPG given up: 461.  Yes really.  Four hundred and sixty one.  Check my math.

Bills Defensive YPG given up: 358

 

Seahawks Offensive PPG: 34

Bills Offensive PPG: 25

 

Seahawks Offensive YPG: 414. 

Bills Offensive YPG: 372

 

Where Seasnakes really shine is with takeaway/giveaway.  They are +2 in 3 of their games (Falcons, Dallas, 49ers). +1 vs Miami and MN.

The only game they lost, vs AZ: -1

 

Would like to know TOP and scoring differential by quarter.

 

[boco357]

3 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

I remember the game being awful and this sent me over the edge.  Loverboy, Honeymoon Suite, Glass Tiger lots of Canadian royalty to choose from!

[YoloinOhio]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Some facts and request for more:

                     

Seahawks Defensive PPG given up: 28

Bills Defensive PPG given up: 25

 

Seahawks Defensive YPG given up: 461.  Yes really.  Four hundred and sixty one.  Check my math.

Bills Defensive YPG given up: 358

 

Seahawks Offensive PPG: 34

Bills Offensive PPG: 25

 

Seahawks Offensive YPG: 414. 

Bills Offensive YPG: 372

 

Where Seasnakes really shine is with takeaway/giveaway.  They are +2 in 3 of their games (Falcons, Dallas, 49ers). +1 vs Miami and MN.

The only game they lost, vs AZ: -1

 

Would like to know TOP and scoring differential by quarter.

 

I heard joe Marino go over some of these numbers on his podcast - the passing yards given up per game is an average of like 358! They aren’t bad vs the run but I wonder what the attempts are there because teams always trying to keep up might pass a lot more 

[YoloinOhio]

 

 

 

 

[YoloinOhio]

 

 

[YoloinOhio]

 

[K-9]

1 hour ago, Bronxbomber21 said:

Darron Lee looks like a DB

When are we gonna see the All Reds or throwbacks

He’s bigger than Milano at least. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

58 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

I heard joe Marino go over some of these numbers on his podcast - the passing yards given up per game is an average of like 358! They aren’t bad vs the run but I wonder what the attempts are there because teams always trying to keep up might pass a lot more 

 

I've had the same thought.  On the other hand, Seattle is perceived as having a tendency to be a slow-starting team.

It's why I'm interested in the scoring differential by quarter.

 

 

[Stank_Nasty]

1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said:

I heard joe Marino go over some of these numbers on his podcast - the passing yards given up per game is an average of like 358! They aren’t bad vs the run but I wonder what the attempts are there because teams always trying to keep up might pass a lot more 

 

5 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I've had the same thought.  On the other hand, Seattle is perceived as having a tendency to be a slow-starting team.

It's why I'm interested in the scoring differential by quarter.

 

 

I think they're pretty solid vs the regardless of context. They are only allowing 3.9 per rush. Good for 5th in the league.

[YoloinOhio]

 

[WideNine]

1 hour ago, Klaus said:

 

From 2010 to 2018 Seattle was outscored 75 to 0 in the first half of playoff games starting at 1pm EST (all West and Mountain teams were outscored 210 to 55 over that period of time). 

 

So they have been slow starters in the past. Hope that holds true Sunday and then Allen can keep the offence rolling in the 2nd half. 

 

That would be great if it holds on Sunday, would be nice to have enough of a lead or cushion before we go into our somewhat predictable 2020 2nd half defensive collapse and/or offensive stall.

 

Outside of the Titans game where they pretty much scored at will (I am not sure if they punted once) McD and Frazier seem to usually have an effective strategy for the 1st half of games, but they usually are not able to counter halftime adjustments. It could be that we just do not have the game-day level of coaching that is needed to make the right changes in real time, or it could be that it takes an enormous amount of coaching-up and strategic planning of the guys we are fielding now just to be competitive in that 1st half of games and we lack the quality of flexible and effective starters to counter the adjustments other teams make with an ad hoc counter strategy.

 

Probably a bit of both, but contrary to some opinions on TBD, I think that Sean has become a better game-day coach than he was his first season here. He was pretty emotional on the sideline that first year and took some wild low-percentage swings at the plate with situational coaching and challenges, but I think his self-scouting and game management has improved. It does not hurt that he seems to embrace surrounding himself with capable people that he is willing to listen to.

 

I remain optimistic and any given Sunday a team can win, but this whole season has left me skeptical of how far this team can go. I don't doubt our player's heart and they have not shown any quit on this coaching staff, but as Yoda would say, "a complete team, they are not".

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Greg S]

6 minutes ago, WideNine said:

 

That would be great if it holds on Sunday, would be nice to have enough of a lead or cushion before we go into our somewhat predictable 2020 2nd half defensive collapse and/or offensive stall.

 

Outside of the Titans game where they pretty much scored at will (I am not sure if they punted once) McD and Frazier seem to usually have an effective strategy for the 1st half of games, but they usually are not able to counter halftime adjustments. It could be that we just do not have the game-day level of coaching that is needed to make the right changes in real time, or it could be that it takes an enormous amount of coaching-up and strategic planning of the guys we are fielding now just to be competitive in that 1st half of games and we lack the quality of flexible and effective starters to counter the adjustments other teams make with an ad hoc counter strategy.

 

Probably a bit of both, but contrary to some opinions on TBD, I think that Sean has become a better game-day coach than he was his first season here. He was pretty emotional on the sideline that first year and took some wild low-percentage swings at the plate with situational coaching and challenges, but I think his self-scouting and game management has improved. It does not hurt that he seems to embrace surrounding himself with capable people that he is willing to listen to.

 

I remain optimistic and any given Sunday a team can win, but this whole season has left me skeptical of how far this team can go. I don't doubt our player's heart and they have not shown any quit on this coaching staff, but as Yoda would say, "a complete team, they are not".

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The defense will need to be improved over the offseason but they are trending in the right direction. They finally found their QB to replace Kelly. It only took 24 years. Team is poised to make the playoffs in 3 of the last 4 years. They will win the division for the first time in a long time. They are not a complete team yet but they are getting there.

Edited November 4, 2020 by Greg S

[YoloinOhio]