Week 9: Seahawks at Bills

[YoloinOhio]

35 minutes ago, nucci said:

so they're going to be too tired to play?

so they're going to be too tired to play?

It doesn’t mean they will be “tired” - sometimes teams can start out flat though when they are off their timing. Rams came out flat in 1st half in Buffalo. Seahawks flat when they went to Miami earlier this season. It’s not a given there will be impact, but it’s nothing new to see a cross country trip - especially with all of the new Covid travel protocols - as a potential edge for the home team even if only for a qtr or two.

 

Edited November 4, 2020 by YoloinOhio

[Stank_Nasty]

42 minutes ago, nucci said:

so they're going to be too tired to play?

so they're going to be too tired to play?

i'm fairly certain there's plenty of stats that show west and east coast teams have a bit more trouble when they have to travel multiple time zones. its not huge or anything but its there.... also i had assumed every football fan has heard about this. its something that gets brought up amongst analysts quite a bit . brand new to you i guess... thats odd to me.

8 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

It doesn’t mean they will be “tired” - sometimes teams can start out flat though when they are off their timing. Rams came out flat in 1st half in Buffalo. Seahawks flat when they went to Miami earlier this season. It’s not a given there will be impact, but it’s nothing new to see a cross country trip - especially with all of the new Covid travel protocols - as a potential edge for the home team even if only for a qtr or two.

right. its a common talking point when these types of games come up. i'm surprised to see someone new to the concept.

Edited November 4, 2020 by Stank_Nasty

[Coach Tuesday]

My biggest fear for this game is Daboll trying to outsmart himself and going run-heavy because “passing is just what they’d expect!”

 

Keep It Simple, Stupid.

[Royale with Cheese]

9 hours ago, billsbackto81 said:

Well I guess it's a good thing the passes under 10 yards count also. 

 

Yes they do but this isn't measuring that.  You can separate stats several ways.

 

It's just a stat showing our downfield passing has been poor since teams adjusted their defense on us.  We went from hitting with power to just singles and our scoring is down.

[nucci]

37 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

i'm fairly certain there's plenty of stats that show west and east coast teams have a bit more trouble when they have to travel multiple time zones. its not huge or anything but its there.... also i had assumed every football fan has heard about this. its something that gets brought up amongst analysts quite a bit . brand new to you i guess... thats odd to me.

 

It's not new to me I just don't believe it. Young players in great shape flying a 5 hr charter flight won't be ready to play? It's not like they have anything to do once they arrive. 

[billsbackto81]

12 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Yes they do but this isn't measuring that.  You can separate stats several ways.

 

It's just a stat showing our downfield passing has been poor since teams adjusted their defense on us.  We went from hitting with power to just singles and our scoring is down.

We all pretty much know the reason it has been poor is because we haven't been able to counter zone defense by rushing the ball with any type of efficiency. If Daboll ever figures out how to run the ball effectively against zone consistently the passing game will open up again. 

[YoloinOhio]

27 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

My biggest fear for this game is Daboll trying to outsmart himself and going run-heavy because “passing is just what they’d expect!”

 

Keep It Simple, Stupid.

He could go run heavy because passing is what they expect, thus they are in dime the whole game like the Pats, and inviting the run. How would that be outsmarting himself ...

[Stank_Nasty]

5 minutes ago, nucci said:

It's not new to me I just don't believe it. Young players in great shape flying a 5 hr charter flight won't be ready to play? It's not like they have anything to do once they arrive. 

You dont believe hard numbers that say thers merit to the argument? That makes sense. Ok... Also if its not new to you, dont act oblivious to the topic. It doesnt make you look super smart, just difficult.

 

.... I'm not gonna pretend to understand why it seems to affect fine tuned pro's or say that i agree that it should or shouldnt. But there is data to show that it is a factor. Do i think its overblown? Yes. Is there numbers that say it can be a factor though? Yes.

Edited November 4, 2020 by Stank_Nasty

[Royale with Cheese]

5 minutes ago, billsbackto81 said:

We all pretty much know the reason it has been poor is because we haven't been able to counter zone defense by rushing the ball with any type of efficiency. If Daboll ever figures out how to run the ball effectively against zone consistently the passing game will open up again. 

 

Yes, that is true but Josh is also missing them as well.  He was ridiculous in the first month and not anywhere close to that since.  I think he's figuring it out though.  I think he plays very well on Sunday.

[nucci]

3 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

you dont believe hard numbers that say thers merit to the argument? that makes sense. ok... also if its not new to you, dont act oblivious to the topic. it doesnt make you look super smart. just sort of out of the loop.

 

.... i'm not gonna pretend to understand why it seems to affect fine tuned pro's or say that i agree that it should or shouldnt. but there is data to show that it is a factor.

Don't talk down to me...we've had west coast teams come to Buffalo and crush us and we have had teams go out to west coast and win. I'm saying there are other factors than time zone travel. Maybe the better team wins

[JohnNord]

I’m telling you... The Bills need to establish the run and take short throws to sustain long drives.  Take some serious time off the clock.  You can’t really stop Seattle’s offense but you if you can move the ball, you can limit possessions and keep them off the field.   If you can get a few stops on a few of those possessions you can win.

 

The Bills will need to score points and won’t be able to win 24-21.  But I feel they can limit scoring opportunities

[Stank_Nasty]

5 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Yes, that is true but Josh is also missing them as well.  He was ridiculous in the first month and not anywhere close to that since.  I think he's figuring it out though.  I think he plays very well on Sunday.

I agree with you i'm finally concerned about the offense. But think about his numbers in that jets game if not for a pop warner penalty on the td that got called back and kroft not tripping on his own feet..... sunday he played a smart game and had another td dropped. 

3 minutes ago, nucci said:

Don't talk down to me...we've had west coast teams come to Buffalo and crush us and we have had teams go out to west coast and win. I'm saying there are other factors than time zone travel. Maybe the better team wins

then if you realize its a factor thats talked about and there are numbers that support it, dont say things like "are they gonna be too tired"? 

 

if thats your response to somebody providing a link with numbers.... i have no problems "talking down"

 

also i dont disagree with anything you just mentioned. It also doesnt discount fully that their are numbers supporting coast to coast travel as real SLIGHTLY limiting factor over years of games.

Edited November 4, 2020 by Stank_Nasty

[PromoTheRobot]

Just now, Stank_Nasty said:

I agree with you i'm finally concerned about the offense. But think about his numbers in that jets game if not for a pop warner penalty on the td that got called back and kroft not tripping on his own feet..... sunday he played a smart game and had another td dropped. 

 

To be fair, Kroft lost his balance adjusting to Allen's slightly off-target pass. If it had been more in front of him Kroft would have been off to the races.

[Stank_Nasty]

Just now, PromoTheRobot said:

 

To be fair, Kroft lost his balance adjusting to Allen's slightly off-target pass. If it had been more in front of him Kroft would have been off to the races.

oh good lord.

[PromoTheRobot]

Just now, Stank_Nasty said:

oh good lord.

 

You disagree?

[Stank_Nasty]

Just now, PromoTheRobot said:

 

You disagree?

that was a throw in stride, in his hands.... sure he had to reach A BIT. thats catch 90% of pass catchers take to the house.

[Royale with Cheese]

8 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

To be fair, Kroft lost his balance adjusting to Allen's slightly off-target pass. If it had been more in front of him Kroft would have been off to the races.

 

It was slightly off but it wasn't something that should have caused him to fall completely off balance.  Slow down a bit, get your weight back under you and go.

He looked like a toddler running in socks on a hardwood floor.

[Coach Tuesday]

33 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

He could go run heavy because passing is what they expect, thus they are in dime the whole game like the Pats, and inviting the run. How would that be outsmarting himself ...

 

Then they'll lose.  They are going to give up points on defense and they need to score to win the game.  What you're describing would be the KC game all over again.  Daboll needs to do a better job of understanding big-picture situational football strategy.  While running against a dime defense might be a good tactical decision, in a game where you need to score points it's not a plan that will work.

Edited November 4, 2020 by Coach Tuesday

[YoloinOhio]

5 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

 

Then they'll lose.  They are going to give up points on defense and they need to score to win the game.  What you're describing would be the KC game all over again.  Daboll needs to do a better job of understanding big-picture situational football strategy.  While running against a dime defense might be a good tactical decision, in a game where you need to score points it's not a plan that will work.

Unless they run effectively. Going run heavy  doesn’t mean they don’t pass at all. It means they will be more ripe to succeed in play action. Their offense is becoming more balanced with a healthy Moss and better OL play. This is a good thing, as it makes them tougher to defend. The Seahawks will try to take away what they do best like the Bills tried with the chiefs. If they can counter that effectively they will score regardless of being run heavy. 

Edited November 4, 2020 by YoloinOhio

[Stank_Nasty]

7 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

 

Then they'll lose.  They are going to give up points on defense and they need to score to win the game.  What you're describing would be the KC game all over again.  Daboll needs to do a better job of understanding big-picture situational football strategy.  While running against a dime defense might be a good tactical decision, in a game where you need to score points it's not a plan that will work.

i mean... if they score each time down the field like the 2nd half of the pats game thats the exact same as scoring while passing.

 

i personally would like to see a balanced attack where the hawks respect our run so our PA game, that was so lethal in sept, gets humming again.

19 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

It was slightly off but it wasn't something that should have caused him to fall completely off balance.  Slow down a bit, get your weight back under you and go.

He looked like a toddler running in socks on a hardwood floor.

he could have literally stopped completely and then got back going, and still probably could have walked to the EZ.

 

my original point being there are a couple of really REALLY sort of boneheaded plays over the last 2 games that would have the offense, and allens stat line, looking a lot different. i guess the fan in me is banking on those getting cleaned up as opposed to be reoccurring issues. Drops, pop warner penalties, and shoe lace trippings didnt seem to be happening the first month.

Edited November 4, 2020 by Stank_Nasty

[Kemp]

18 hours ago, Dablitzkrieg said:

Can you show your work please?  I think these stats are *****!  Thanks

 

Can't find the place I got it from, but it’s a cut and paste, I didn't write it.

[YoloinOhio]

3 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

Can't find the place I got it from, but it’s a cut and paste, I didn't write it.

You need to provide a link to stuff you copy and paste, please 

Edited November 4, 2020 by YoloinOhio

[Kemp]

3 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

You need to provide a link to stuff you copy and paste, please 

 

Will try and find it.

 

You don't believe i wrote that, do you?

 

Would be easy enough to disprove.

[YoloinOhio]

Just now, Kemp said:

 

Will try and find it.

 

You don't believe i wrote that, do you?

 

Would be easy enough to disprove.

No I dont think you wrote it, I’m just reminding you of the TOS

[Kemp]

2 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

No I dont think you wrote it, I’m just reminding you of the TOS

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/theathletic.co.uk/2176712/2020/11/03/bills-patriots-passing/%3famp

 

How is that?

Edited November 4, 2020 by Kemp

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

To be fair, Kroft lost his balance adjusting to Allen's slightly off-target pass. If it had been more in front of him Kroft would have been off to the races.

 

That's true, but a better athlete adjusts and keeps running.  The nearest defender was so far away that he could possibly even have done a forward roll come to his feet and kept running.  By all accounts, Kroft is a prince of a fellow and probably at the 0.5% edge of the normal population for athleticism, but by NFL standards he's just not that athletic.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

21 hours ago, Kemp said:

Not sure if this has been posted:

 

In the last four games, Allen is 18-for-46 for 293 yards, one touchdown and four interceptions on passes that travel at least 10 yards in the air. That’s good for a passer rating of 32.2, worst in the league on those passes in that time frame. Expand that to passes 15 yards or more in the air, and Allen’s passer rating is second worst, ahead of only Sam Darnold in the last four games. It’s not as if the Bills aren’t giving him chances. Only four quarterbacks have thrown the ball 10 or more yards downfield more than Allen has in the last four weeks. He also had his top four receivers healthy on Sunday. His downfield passing game has disappeared, and if Allen can’t get it back, this offense will hover around the league average. Allen was one of the best downfield passers in football through the first month of the season. Defenses have adjusted to take it away, but Allen needs to find an answer.

Edit: adding source:

https://theathletic.co.uk/2176712/2020/11/03/bills-patriots-passing/

 

"on passes that travel at least 10 yards in the air"

 

LOL at how these guys like to slice and dice things. 

[Stank_Nasty]

i already said it once in here and i'll say it again.  We're getting that elusive defensive td this week! we're due!!!!

 

I'M SPEAKING(typing) THIS ONE INTO EXISTENCE!

[Kemp]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

"on passes that travel at least 10 yards in the air"

 

LOL at how these guys like to slice and dice things. 

 

We're in an age of analytics and they often tell an interesting and unexamined story.

[Penfield45]

1 hour ago, JohnNord said:

I’m telling you... The Bills need to establish the run and take short throws to sustain long drives.  Take some serious time off the clock.  You can’t really stop Seattle’s offense but you if you can move the ball, you can limit possessions and keep them off the field.   If you can get a few stops on a few of those possessions you can win.

 

The Bills will need to score points and won’t be able to win 24-21.  But I feel they can limit scoring opportunities

 

seattle puts up 30 points per game with ease. 

 

if the Bills offense can't reach 30 this weekend they can forget about winning. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

10 minutes ago, Kemp said:

We're in an age of analytics and they often tell an interesting and unexamined story.

 

Fair.  But the story they tell may not be the story the person examining them thinks they tell.   The real question is always "what is the underlying cause?"

Is Josh throwing to adequately open WR and missing?  Is Josh trying to force the ball into double coverage and somewhat lucky he's not being picked?  What's the reason?

 

In this case, the statistic I'd like to know is how often Allen is throwing those longer passes against dime coverage or even 7 DB. 

For example, Thad Brown provided the following about coverage during the Pats game:

 

What has that breakdown been during the other 3 games?  My perception is that this statistic is being skewed because especially early-on in the Titans and KC games, Josh was in fact trying to force the ball into double or triple covered WR, either because he thought he could or because he was misreading the zone.

[Kemp]

18 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Fair.  But the story they tell may not be the story the person examining them thinks they tell.   The real question is always "what is the underlying cause?"

Is Josh throwing to adequately open WR and missing?  Is Josh trying to force the ball into double coverage and somewhat lucky he's not being picked?  What's the reason?

 

In this case, the statistic I'd like to know is how often Allen is throwing those longer passes against dime coverage or even 7 DB. 

For example, Thad Brown provided the following about coverage during the Pats game:

 

What has that breakdown been during the other 3 games?  My perception is that this statistic is being skewed because especially early-on in the Titans and KC games, Josh was in fact trying to force the ball into double or triple covered WR, either because he thought he could or because he was misreading the zone.

 

It's just an interesting statistic that seems to indicate that Allen is having difficulty adjusting to new looks.

 

Without re-reading it, I believe it did say that Allen is too locked in on his primary, which is usually Diggs.

[atlbillsfan1975]

3 hours ago, Stank_Nasty said:

i'm fairly certain there's plenty of stats that show west and east coast teams have a bit more trouble when they have to travel multiple time zones. its not huge or anything but its there.... also i had assumed every football fan has heard about this. its something that gets brought up amongst analysts quite a bit . brand new to you i guess... thats odd to me.

right. its a common talking point when these types of games come up. i'm surprised to see someone new to the concept.

Once that poster gets something in his head you are better just letting it go. You would have a better chance of  changing someone from blue cheese to ranch. 

[YoloinOhio]

 

 

[YoloinOhio]

 

 

[QLBillsFan]

41 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

It's just an interesting statistic that seems to indicate that Allen is having difficulty adjusting to new looks.

 

Without re-reading it, I believe it did say that Allen is too locked in on his primary, which is usually Diggs.

The expert evaluation from Kubiak on JA’s play against the Pats is that he had an outstanding game. So he wasn’t forcing to Diggs vs Pats. The int Diggs was fairly open but miscommunication. To prove your point on JA forcing we need to see snap count of opposing D as we saw for Pats game. 

[YoloinOhio]

 

 

[Bronxbomber21]

Doss anyone no who the fox 1 o'clock game of the week is?

[YoloinOhio]

 

 

[Kemp]

3 minutes ago, QLBillsFan said:

The expert evaluation from Kubiak on JA’s play against the Pats is that he had an outstanding game. So he wasn’t forcing to Diggs vs Pats. The int Diggs was fairly open but miscommunication. To prove your point on JA forcing we need to see snap count of opposing D as we saw for Pats game. 

 

I just presented stats provided by someone else. You can disagree with the conclusions, but not the data.