Bill Barnwell on Josh Allen

[NewEra]

12 minutes ago, GaryPinC said:

I think the negativity is because of the disappointment that Tyrod has enough raw physical tools to be a great QB but failed to do so when we needed it the most at critical points in games.  With all the great things about him, it was obvious the team had no future with him so you magnify the negatives to compensate.

This.  I never had confidence that he would lead us down the field for a GW td with the game on the line.  The ultimate example was mnf @ Seattle.  Tyrod had played one of, if not the best game I’ve seen him play.  Sitting in the stands, watching him

move the chains on the final drive, I couldn’t help but think, how are we going to lose this game.  We lost the game because he couldn’t score a TD when we needed him to. 
 

I have confidence Josh Allen will lead us down the field and get us into the end zone or the GW score. I never had that with Tyrod.  And that’s why he’s gone.  He had his chance.  

[C.Biscuit97]

15 minutes ago, 2020 Our Year For Sure said:

I seriously doubt Tyrod makes all those 4Q comebacks/game-winning drives. He was a Trentative check down artist and would usually shrink and crumble when asked to win the game for you. Allen plays his best ball at winning time.

Well considering the Bills scored more points under Taylor than Allen, they might not need him.  It’s kinda why I hate the 4th quarter comeback stat.  With better qb play and offense, we won’t have needed comebacks last year.  Really good defense and a garbage schedule.  Those games should have been over by the 3rd quarter.

Edited July 1, 2020 by C.Biscuit97

[teef]

oh my...

[DCOrange]

No surprise that Barnwell's comparison to Tyrod is what's garnered the most attention from the article. I've mentioned the same thing in the past as well. Rookie Allen took chances with the ball in a way Tyrod never did, and because of Rookie Allen's deficiencies as a passer, those chances more often than not did not work out in our favor. Sophomore Allen was very similar to Tyrod; dialed back on forcing passes in a very major way, both in terms of throwing into tight windows and also in terms of throwing it deep.

 

It shouldn't be an offensive comparison. Tyrod was roughly an average to above-average starter during his time here. The comparison is that as a sophomore, Allen played in a similar way to Tyrod, albeit he wasn't as efficient as Tyrod's best season. Obviously Allen is only headed into his 3rd season in the NFL; he should hypothetically improve moving forwards (though that isn't a given and some would even say unlikely) and become a much better QB than Tyrod ever was here. That's certainly my hope.

 

Overall, the article is a really good read IMO even if the conclusions drawn aren't necessarily what we'd like to hear. I still like Allen a lot as a prospect but obviously this next season will be a huge one in determining what we have moving forwards.

Edited July 1, 2020 by DCOrange

[Kirby Jackson]

5 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

No surprise that Barnwell's comparison to Tyrod is what's garnered the most attention from the article. I've mentioned the same thing in the past as well. Rookie Allen took chances with the ball in a way Tyrod never did, and because of Rookie Allen's deficiencies as a passer, those chances more often than not did not work out in our favor. Sophomore Allen was very similar to Tyrod; dialed back on forcing passes in a very major way, both in terms of throwing into tight windows and also in terms of throwing it deep.

 

It shouldn't be an offensive comparison. Tyrod was roughly an average to above-average starter during his time here. The comparison is that as a sophomore, Allen played in a similar way to Tyrod, albeit he wasn't as efficient as Tyrod's best season. Obviously Allen is only headed into his 3rd season in the NFL; he should hypothetically improve moving forwards (though that isn't a given and some would even say unlikely) and become a much better QB than Tyrod ever was here. That's certainly my hope.

 

Overall, the article is a really good read IMO even if the conclusions drawn aren't necessarily what we'd like to hear. I still like Allen a lot as a prospect but obviously this next season will be a huge one in determining what we have moving forwards.

This x1,000,000

 

2nd year Allen was just like Tyrod here. The hope is that Allen continues to progress. I think he will.

[eball]

Still waiting for someone to come here and honestly say that Josh Allen and Tyrod Taylor play the same way.  Not that their stats were similar, or that their W-L records were similar, but that you think of them as similar QBs based upon what you are watching.

 

[stinky finger]

1 hour ago, Reader said:

 

2015 Tyrod is underrated on this board.

 

And clearly overrated in this thread.

[DCOrange]

Seems relevant to a lot of the discussion here:

 

[Punching Bag]

2 hours ago, eball said:

OH. MY. GOD.  Please let this season happen so these articles will stop.  Everybody knows this is Allen's make-it-or-break-it season to show he is going to be "the man."  EVERYBODY.  How many "the Bills will only go as far as Josh Allen takes them" articles do we need?

 

As many as writers will be paid for?  

Some like Jerry Sullivan had articles pre-written and just picked what fitted his predetermined conclusion.

 

 

Sorry if my reply is painful to some of Jerry's ball washers.

Edited July 1, 2020 by Limeaid
apology

[GoBills808]

4 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

Seems relevant to a lot of the discussion here:

 

Weren’t the Bills near top of the league in 3rd and 8+ last season?

[simpleman]

2 hours ago, eball said:

OH. MY. GOD.  Please let this season happen so these articles will stop.  Everybody knows this is Allen's make-it-or-break-it season to show he is going to be "the man."  EVERYBODY.  How many "the Bills will only go as far as Josh Allen takes them" articles do we need?

Eball you know better. The article is just one part of a series he wrote comparing the 2018 first round draft QB selections. Each day of the week he does a detailed evaluation of a different QB. It is not specifically about the Bills, or written for Bills fans. It is written for NFL football fans. And it is a very fair and reasonable article. He tells the positives and negatives for each. Lighten up. NFL football is about more than just the Bills.

[eball]

22 minutes ago, teef said:

oh my...

 

I know what you're thinking.

 

By the way, an analysis on FiveThirtyEight last season looked for all games that ESPN's win-probability model gave a 60-40 or narrower split at any point with five or fewer minutes remaining in regulation.  There were 63 out of 256 such games, or just about 25%.

 

So yeah, having a QB who knows how to lead a 4th quarter comeback isn't really that important.  ?

[C.Biscuit97]

3 minutes ago, eball said:

 

I know what you're thinking.

 

By the way, an analysis on FiveThirtyEight last season looked for all games that ESPN's win-probability model gave a 60-40 or narrower split at any point with five or fewer minutes remaining in regulation.  There were 63 out of 256 such games, or just about 25%.

 

So yeah, having a QB who knows how to lead a 4th quarter comeback isn't really that important.  ?

2010 Mark Sanchez agrees. So does 2015 Blake Bortles.  ?

Edited July 1, 2020 by C.Biscuit97

[VW82]

I like Barnwell and agree with not just his overall assessment but on the majority of his individual points.

 

The Tyrod comp is lazy and incorrect. Those teams were built on the backs of Shady, Richie, EWood, and some very creative and aggressive run oriented play calling. That offense was nothing like what Daboll is running. Any statistical similarities are purely by accident and don't begin to tell the whole story.  

Edited July 1, 2020 by VW82

[BullBuchanan]

2 hours ago, costrovs said:

 

Deep Pass- He can throw deep. It's a threat every time he's on the field. Defenses know that. Gone are the days of Defenses stacking 9 players at the line.

 

Can he though? He can throw far, sure, but his deep ball accuracy is almost fitzpatrick-esque

 

[dollars 2 donuts]

I may be part of the small group that brings this up, but I honestly think given the way he is in  a number of fourth quarters, that if he doesn't get hurt against the Pats in that first game that maybe they pull that one out.

 

If you keep all things equal, because otherwise it gets a little goofy, the Bills finish 11-5 and even if they don't win the tie breaker against the Pats at 11-5 I just think that mark causes a lot of these question go away.

 

...certainly not all of them, but a lot.  

 

A victory against the Pats, another comeback win, yada-yada-yada.

[Kirby Jackson]

25 minutes ago, eball said:

Still waiting for someone to come here and honestly say that Josh Allen and Tyrod Taylor play the same way.  Not that their stats were similar, or that their W-L records were similar, but that you think of them as similar QBs based upon what you are watching.

 

I do to an extent. They both are tough when the play breaks down. They both kept a lot of plays alive in the backfield that should have been sacks. Neither threw a lot of 50/50 balls which is why their turnovers are low. They were “good misses.” Allen is better in the intermediate and Tyrod better down the field. They were good on 3rd down as well. Both guys were pretty fearless runners too (which I love). 
 

Now, I believe that Allen will continue to progress but his season last year wasn’t that different than Tyrod here.

[DCOrange]

30 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Weren’t the Bills near top of the league in 3rd and 8+ last season?

I think they were near the top in terms of the # of times they converted, but that was a result of how bad they were on 1st and 2nd down. I don't think I can find the exact same metric as Barnwell is using for Tyrod, but for example in the article in the OP it mentions that "When you don't consider his runs, Allen converted just 32.8% of his third/fourth-down dropbacks into first downs as a passer, which was the second-worst rate in the league." Not specifically 3rd and 8+ though.

 

Edit: If I'm inputting it correctly into Pro-Football Reference, it looks like Tyrod converted roughly 28-29% of 3rd and 8+ depending on if Barnwell was specifically limiting it to pass attempts or not. Allen was also at 28-29% this past season.

Edited July 1, 2020 by DCOrange

[eball]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I do to an extent. They both are tough when the play breaks down. They both kept a lot of plays alive in the backfield that should have been sacks. Neither threw a lot of 50/50 balls which is why their turnovers are low. They were “good misses.” Allen is better in the intermediate and Tyrod better down the field. They were good on 3rd down as well. Both guys were pretty fearless runners too (which I love). 
 

Now, I believe that Allen will continue to progress but his season last year wasn’t that different than Tyrod here.

 

Yeah, I don't see it.  Tyrod never threw to anyone who wasn't clearly open; it was maddening to watch.  I don't think their running styles are similar.  Remember everyone literally begging Tyrod to use the middle of the field?  Josh was awesome there.  They are much, much different players in my opinion -- without looking at a single stat.

[bigK14094]

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I don’t really disagree.  I always said I wish EJ had the attitude that Allen had.  But I think some of you act like he’s some crazy gunslinger and the reality is he’s been closer to Tyrod.  Like 200 yards passing in today’s nfl should not be an accomplishment.  
 

that said, hopefully with Diggs, the excuses will be done.  I want to see an Allen that if the defense slips up against a team like KC, Allen can win a game 31-27.  That’s when you know you have a franchise guy.  

EJ was to busy selling shares in his future income stream. (yes, he did)  He was emulating RG3 who also did that.  Didn't work out for investors in either case.

[Kirby Jackson]

Just now, eball said:

 

Yeah, I don't see it.  Tyrod never threw to anyone who wasn't clearly open; it was maddening to watch.  I don't think their running styles are similar.  Remember everyone literally begging Tyrod to use the middle of the field?  Josh was awesome there.  They are much, much different players in my opinion -- without looking at a single stat.

You don’t think that they are similar runners? They always make the first man miss in the backfield and get as many yards as they possibly could. Both guys have great instincts as runners. That’s why they are high YPC guys. They also finish in the red zone. With the exception of the Josh Allen sneaks I think that they’re virtually identical as runners. 

 

Josh uses the middle of the field more for sure compared to Tyrod at the beginning of his Bills career. He used it a lot more at the end than at the beginning. Josh is really good in the intermediate. Tyrod was one of the best deep ball throwers in the league at the time. That’s where they differ. 

[eball]

15 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

You don’t think that they are similar runners? They always make the first man miss in the backfield and get as many yards as they possibly could. Both guys have great instincts as runners. That’s why they are high YPC guys. They also finish in the red zone. With the exception of the Josh Allen sneaks I think that they’re virtually identical as runners. 

 

Josh uses the middle of the field more for sure compared to Tyrod at the beginning of his Bills career. He used it a lot more at the end than at the beginning. Josh is really good in the intermediate. Tyrod was one of the best deep ball throwers in the league at the time. That’s where they differ. 

 

Well, I know two people can see things differently, and that's cool.  Tyrod is a "flashier" runner but I think Josh gets more out of his runs.  Josh already has 17 rushing TDs in 27 starts...Tyrod has 16 in 46 starts!  And you can't just discount the sneaks -- they are a huge part of keeping the chains moving.  Tyrod clearly was a better deep thrower but Josh blows him away in the intermediate range.

[MJS]

Tyrod never took chances even when the team needed him to. Allen takes chances sometimes when the team DOESN'T need him to.

 

Polar opposite QB's, if you ask me. Josh is a guy you need to rein in. Taylor is a guy you need to prod with a hot poker.

8 minutes ago, eball said:

 

Well, I know two people can see things differently, and that's cool.  Tyrod is a "flashier" runner but I think Josh gets more out of his runs.  Josh already has 17 rushing TDs in 27 starts...Tyrod has 16 in 46 starts!  And you can't just discount the sneaks -- they are a huge part of keeping the chains moving.  Tyrod clearly was a better deep thrower but Josh blows him away in the intermediate range.

Tyrod had a season of good deep ball throwing, but then he was mediocre. It had been the highlight of his passing ability but it fizzled over time until he was basically completely ineffective as a passer.

[Punching Bag]

43 minutes ago, eball said:

 

Yeah, I don't see it.  Tyrod never threw to anyone who wasn't clearly open; it was maddening to watch.  I don't think their running styles are similar.  Remember everyone literally begging Tyrod to use the middle of the field?  Josh was awesome there.  They are much, much different players in my opinion -- without looking at a single stat.

 

That is incorrect.  Year one he did and evidently Rex and company during 2nd season emphasized not taking chances and he complied.

[eball]

2 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

 

That is incorrect.  Year one he did and evidently Rex and company during 2nd season emphasized not taking chances and he complied.

 

Yeah, we'll agree to disagree on that.  His INT % went from 1.6 to 1.4 his first two seasons in Buffalo.  He always avoided danger.

[oldmanfan]

Fairly decent article I think.  Stats between him and TT are similar but Bills fans know the playing styles are completely different.  I think he states the obvious that Josh needs to continue his improvement but details specifics on that.  So overall pretty good.

 

One comment on the DiMarco pass though.  Allen gets ragged on continually for that throw, but the bottom line is DiMarco had it in his hands.  He holds on we win.  The throw may not have been the first choice, but the throw was there.

Edited July 1, 2020 by oldmanfan

[QCity]

Right now, they're both running QB's.

[eball]

2 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Remember Mark Sanchez led the NFL in 4th quarter comebacks?

 

 

 

So are you someone else who believes 4th quarter comebacks aren't important?

[John from Riverside]

I will keep posting it until these dumb articles stop

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

You don’t think that they are similar runners? They always make the first man miss in the backfield and get as many yards as they possibly could. Both guys have great instincts as runners. That’s why they are high YPC guys. They also finish in the red zone. With the exception of the Josh Allen sneaks I think that they’re virtually identical as runners. 

 

Josh uses the middle of the field more for sure compared to Tyrod at the beginning of his Bills career. He used it a lot more at the end than at the beginning. Josh is really good in the intermediate. Tyrod was one of the best deep ball throwers in the league at the time. That’s where they differ. 

good running QBs are good running QBs imo.  That’s a trait that both of them have.  That makes them similar as they are both excellent running the ball.  Superior athletes.  That’s about the extent of their similarities as QBs imo.  Josh is clearly superior in the QB sneak. He brings another level to his ball carrying ability.  He hurdles LBs and always gets his QBs sneak.  He’s better running the ball. He’s superior throwing the ball minus joshs inability to complete the deep ball last year.  Josh always goes for the first down in 3rd down.  I always remember Tyrod taking the safe route and leaving me thinking “we need a new QB”.

 

in summary, the only comparison I see between the two are that they are both mobile.  

[Billl]

1 hour ago, eball said:

Still waiting for someone to come here and honestly say that Josh Allen and Tyrod Taylor play the same way.  Not that their stats were similar, or that their W-L records were similar, but that you think of them as similar QBs based upon what you are watching.

 

To date, they are both only starting in the league because of their running ability.  Neither of them throw the ball well enough to get by as pure passing QBs.  Taylor is much more of a game manager who checks down and protects the ball.  Sometimes that works out for him.  Sometimes it doesn’t.  Allen is much more of a wild card who tends to Chuck the ball deep when things break down and has a tendency to be reckless with the ball.  Sometimes that works out for him.  Sometimes it doesn’t.

 

Both rely heavily on their running ability to make up for their shortcomings as pocket passers.

Both struggle with going through their progressions. (Taylor does it too quickly, Josh does it too slowly)

Both have issues recognizing risk/reward situations.  (Taylor errs on the side of caution, Josh errs on the side of risk)

 

Whether this makes them similar as QBs is a question of semantics.

[Augie]

4 hours ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:

I'm not judging Allen until we see him with the amazing WR talent we have now with Diggs WR1. All of these stats are not relevant until they are all playing together.

 

He’s got better weapons now, and another year of experience. He doesn’t have to be “Mahomes Great” and a league MVP,  just keep making progress. Keep getting better, which I fully expect, and I’ll be pleased. He’s a natural leader, and you can’t teach that. 

[Mr. WEO]

Man...Beane  should take those 2 first rounds picks right now!!

[costrovs]

1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said:

Can he though? He can throw far, sure, but his deep ball accuracy is almost fitzpatrick-esque

 

I'll agree that his deep throws were horrible last season. He couldn't connect worth crap. But, he's not over throwing his receivers by a mile like some QB's. Most of his overthrows were quite literally within 1-2 feet of his mark, some within inches but the receivers just couldn't bring them in.

[eball]

14 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

I don't think it means a whole lot in predicting consistent success in the league. 

 

You would certainly agree that between two QBs, having the experience and history of leading your team back in the 4th quarter is preferable, right?

[Milanos Milano]

Josh Allen is way better than TT and it’s not even close. 

 

Allen reminds me of Randall Cunningham. They both have the same skill set. 

[GaryPinC]

2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Well considering the Bills scored more points under Taylor than Allen, they might not need him.  It’s kinda why I hate the 4th quarter comeback stat.  With better qb play and offense, we won’t have needed comebacks last year.  Really good defense and a garbage schedule.  Those games should have been over by the 3rd quarter.

 

Looking at both QBs most recent season with Buffalo (TT 2017 JA 2019) at PFR, it appears Allen bests Taylor in passing TDs 20-14.  Allen also bests Taylor in rushing TDs 9-4.  I would argue if the Bills scored more points under Taylor, it wasn't because of Taylor.

 

Also, I felt like TT's long ball tanked in 2017 compared to 2015.  

 

Last but not least, defenses had really begun to figure TT out.  Next year in Cleveland, I watched all 3 TT games and though not the best conditions, TT was largely ineffective and shut down against the defenses.  And same old checkdowns and late game scoring tanks.  My good buddy (huge Browns fan) couldn't understand why we let TT go until he witnessed it himself and the same frustration set in.

His concussion against the Jets paved the way for Mayfield but he wouldn't have lasted as starter anyways.   Though you never know with coach Huge Jackass.  He was tough to figure at times.

[Maine-iac]

1 hour ago, GaryPinC said:

 

Looking at both QBs most recent season with Buffalo (TT 2017 JA 2019) at PFR, it appears Allen bests Taylor in passing TDs 20-14.  Allen also bests Taylor in rushing TDs 9-4.  I would argue if the Bills scored more points under Taylor, it wasn't because of Taylor.

 

Also, I felt like TT's long ball tanked in 2017 compared to 2015.  

 

Last but not least, defenses had really begun to figure TT out.  Next year in Cleveland, I watched all 3 TT games and though not the best conditions, TT was largely ineffective and shut down against the defenses.  And same old checkdowns and late game scoring tanks.  My good buddy (huge Browns fan) couldn't understand why we let TT go until he witnessed it himself and the same frustration set in.

His concussion against the Jets paved the way for Mayfield but he wouldn't have lasted as starter anyways.   Though you never know with coach Huge Jackass.  He was tough to figure at times.

Did TT's long ball tank or did Watkins, Woods, Hogan, and Goodwin all leave and get replaced Zay "Brick Hands" Jones and Kelvin "One Good Leg" Benjamin.  Dennison also might have been the worst OC to come to Buffalo in the last decade and that's saying something.  The current coaching staff never had any plans of TT being in Buffalo as anything more than a transition QB.  We were going to get a "franchise" QB come hell or high water.  Allen looks pretty good.   What he throws away with mistakes and bonehead plays (hopefully correctable) he makes up for with that "it" factor he seems to bring at crunch time in the 4th quarter.

 

ps  Cleveland's kicker doesn't suck and Taylor is 2 and 0 with wins over the Steelers and Saints going into the Jets game where Mayfield came in and then (giving him the Jets win) lost 5 of the next 7.  Cleveland is just a bad place to be a QB.

Edited July 1, 2020 by Maine-iac

[billieve420]

3 hours ago, MJS said:

Tyrod never took chances even when the team needed him to. Allen takes chances sometimes when the team DOESN'T need him to.

 

Polar opposite QB's, if you ask me. Josh is a guy you need to rein in. Taylor is a guy you need to prod with a hot poker.

Tyrod had a season of good deep ball throwing, but then he was mediocre. It had been the highlight of his passing ability but it fizzled over time until he was basically completely ineffective as a passer.

 

Some of it was personnel too. Look at at the WRs on that 2015 team and then compare it with the players the final year Taylor was starting. We swapped out smaller fast WRs who could gain separation for bigger slower possession receivers. Taylor is not an anticipation thrower and once you took away his calling card the deep ball. You were left with a QB who couldn’t make throws in tight windows consistently.

Edited July 1, 2020 by billieve420

[GaryPinC]

3 hours ago, Maine-iac said:

Did TT's long ball tank or did Watkins, Woods, Hogan, and Goodwin all leave and get replaced Zay "Brick Hands" Jones and Kelvin "One Good Leg" Benjamin.  Dennison also might have been the worst OC to come to Buffalo in the last decade and that's saying something.  The current coaching staff never had any plans of TT being in Buffalo as anything more than a transition QB.  We were going to get a "franchise" QB come hell or high water.  Allen looks pretty good.   What he throws away with mistakes and bonehead plays (hopefully correctable) he makes up for with that "it" factor he seems to bring at crunch time in the 4th quarter.

 

ps  Cleveland's kicker doesn't suck and Taylor is 2 and 0 with wins over the Steelers and Saints going into the Jets game where Mayfield came in and then (giving him the Jets win) lost 5 of the next 7.  Cleveland is just a bad place to be a QB.

TT's longballs lost some of their accuracy IMO, not because receivers were dropping them.

Whether he was 0-2 or 2-0 he still stunk and was lousy against the Jets also.  Mayfield was an epiphany on offense the moment he came in, sealing TT's fate in CLE.