Convince me that the 2020 Pats are good...

[ColoradoBills]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

You think Brady and a rookie QB are equal??

 

Stidham isn’t a rookie btw.

 

You are the one saying that Stidham (in all essence a rookie) and Brady's "stats" are comparable so that's why they will beat the Bills this year.

 

Yes I know he is technically not a rookie.  If you want to compare his stats with Brady let's do that.

Do you think Stidham puts up 4000+ yards passing this year?

Will Stidham have a 24 TD to 8 INT ratio?

Stidham rookie season stats.  3 games with 0 starts.  2-4-14 yards.  1 INT and a sack with a Peterman type rating of 18.7.

 

You were the one that quoted " I’m utterly confident that Stidham is capable of putting up that statline above, and we know that statline can be good enough to beat us."

comparing to Brady stats, not me.

 

I will stick with my opinion that Tom Brady is gone and that will affect that team greatly.

 

[y2zipper]

I think that we've already seen the high-end of what next year's Patriots could look like: the 2019 Steelers. If TL:DR, I expect the Patriots to get abysmal QB play from Hoyer and Stidham and I expect their high turnover rate on defense to regress.

 

For all the talk of the Patriots' weapons, lack thereof, etc..., the totality of their offensive production last year was average to below average. They were 15th in total yards, 21st in yards per play, and 26th in rushing yards per attempt. The only part of their offense that was above average was Tom Brady, who produced a lot of yards. (NOTE: this was mostly on volume. Brady was 4th in the league in attempts and produced a below-average passer rating) The interception rate for Brady was also very low, as always (top ten at not throwing picks). I don't particularly see Stidham or Hoyer matching Brady's production while maintaining that low of an interception rate, and the Patriots simply don't have the rushing attack to make up the deficit in production. For example, if Hoyer/Stidham have an NFL average interception rate, that's double Brady's.

 

For reference, last year's Pittsburgh team was 29th in yards per rushing attempt and only managed to beat Jameis Winston and Baker Mayfield in interception rate (3rd lowest).

 

Pittsburgh and New England managed to win by having an exceptionally high and unsustainable turnover rates. The average team got turnovers 12% of the time. Pittsburgh got 19% and New England got 17% for turnover rates, and I expect both of these teams to regress some because turnover rates always change and high turnover reliant defenses are historically not sustainable.

 

It adds up to the Patriots being a .500 team if they sustain a huge turnover rate and a 5-6 win team if they can't, unless Stidham is way better than people think.

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

You are the one saying that Stidham (in all essence a rookie) and Brady's "stats" are comparable so that's why they will beat the Bills this year.

 

Yes I know he is technically not a rookie.  If you want to compare his stats with Brady let's do that.

Do you think Stidham puts up 4000+ yards passing this year?

Will Stidham have a 24 TD to 8 INT ratio?

Stidham rookie season stats.  3 games with 0 starts.  2-4-14 yards.  1 INT and a sack with a Peterman type rating of 18.7.

 

You were the one that quoted " I’m utterly confident that Stidham is capable of putting up that statline above, and we know that statline can be good enough to beat us."

comparing to Brady stats, not me.

 

I will stick with my opinion that Tom Brady is gone and that will affect that team greatly.

 

Did Tom Brady put up 4000 yards and 24 TD’s against the Bills last year?  Wow.

[ColoradoBills]

Just now, FireChans said:

Did Tom Brady put up 4000 yards and 24 TD’s against the Bills last year?  Wow.

 

Forget it.   I can see you are the type of poster that will twist other posts to make your "hot takes" sound true.

You have all the right to believe the Bills will continue to play the Pats* bad this year.  I don't.

[Kirby Jackson]

16 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

They're good until they show us they aren't.

 

If BB doesn't get that benefit of the doubt, who does?

 

 

Nobody gets the benefit of the doubt!! Being good in 2008 with different players playing against different players with a different schedule doesn’t translate to today.

 

If you want to use BB as a part of your argument as to why they will be good go for it. Just don’t say they will be good because they were before. If you believe that the system is so strong that they can plug different people in and not skip a beat cool. Just know, that people will challenge the notion that they can run consistently vs. loaded boxes, make plays down the field, etc..

 

This was intended to be a football conversation and has been for the most part. Falling back on “because they did before” is lazy and doesn’t correlate. For the most part people have avoided it. Everyone that thinks they will be good or pretty good has given football reasons (all of which involve Belichick). That’s totally fair. Any argument to why they will or won’t be good though needs to be 100% dependent on the players, coaches and schedule of 2020. Anything from prior years or future years is irrelevant when discussing THIS season.

[FireChans]

31 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Forget it.   I can see you are the type of poster that will twist other posts to make your "hot takes" sound true.

You have all the right to believe the Bills will continue to play the Pats* bad this year.  I don't.

I didn’t twist your post, your post was just irrelevant. We only play the Pats twice. Brady’s cumulative stats over the year are irrelevant. I don’t believe the Pats will truly contend with the Bills for the division title, because as you said, Stidham being as good as Brady over the course of the year is unlikely. 

 

HOWEVER, the Pats managed to beat us with Brady playing like absolute trash last year. If Stidham plays like absolute trash (or possibly better) against us, we may only win 1 game, because that’s what happened last year.

 

This is really simple logic, and it’s easy to follow. You’re welcome to disagree and believe Brady’s magic is the real reason we lost to the Pats in the first game last season. But reality tells us it was their defense embarrassing Josh and holding us to 10 points, along with superior ST play which earned them the victory.

[Doc]

3 hours ago, dneveu said:

Harry, Sanu, Edelman, Lee with a full offseason.  

 

Last year it was Gordon (susp), Brown(susp), Edelman, Sanu (acquired in October), Dorsett, Meyers.  I think the above one looks better tbh.

 

At TE it was Watson (age 39), Lacosse, Tomlinson (Jets cut him in August), Izzo (2018 7th round pick).  This year it would be Lacosse, Asiasi, keene.  Two 3rd rounders instead of a 39 year old, jets cast off, and 7th rounder.  

I wouldn't say they've done little - Harry getting hurt wasn't ideal, and all the bandaids didn't work.  Sanu struggled as a midseason trade, and the other 2 guys ended up suspended and cut.  

 

The WRs and TEs now scare no one.  Neither does Stidham.  And there won't be a full off-season.

 

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Brady played the worst game of the year last year against the Bills, 18-39 for 150 and INT. We still got held to 10 and we still lost.

 

And that's why the Bills traded for Diggs and drafted Moss.  They were basically playing without a #2 WR or RB last year.

 

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Brady didn’t block that punt. So, I’m utterly confident that Stidham is capable of putting up that statline above, and we know that statline can be good enough to beat us.

 

It's very likely Stidham will be even worse.

[FireChans]

36 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

The WRs and TEs now scare no one.  Neither does Stidham.  And there won't be a full off-season.

 

 

And that's why the Bills traded for Diggs and drafted Moss.  They were basically playing without a #2 WR or RB last year.

 

 

It's very likely Stidham will be even worse.

I don’t think there’s much evidence for that, but we’ll see. A passer rating of 45 in a full game is horrendous. Not as bad as a passer rating of 24 through 3 Q’s I guess.

[Doc]

Just now, FireChans said:

I don’t think there’s much evidence for that, but we’ll see. A passer rating of 45 in a full game is horrendous. Not as bad as a passer rating of 24 through 3 Q’s I guess.

 

So the evidence that he'll be better is...because a passer rating of 45 is horrendous?  Yeah, not how it works.

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, Doc said:

 

So the evidence that he'll be better is...because a passer rating of 45 is horrendous?  Yeah, not how it works.

I didn’t say there was evidence he’d be better. Try to keep up buddy.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 hour ago, Doc said:

 

The WRs and TEs now scare no one.  Neither does Stidham.  And there won't be a full off-season.

 

 

And that's why the Bills traded for Diggs and drafted Moss.  They were basically playing without a #2 WR or RB last year.

 

 

It's very likely Stidham will be even worse.

 

Right - but they scared no one last year.  True they don't get a full offseason, but harry missed camp and was on IR through most of the year.  Not ideal for a WR to make a contribution.  Sanu showed up in October so he didn't even have a camp there. 

 

The question was convince why they are good - mostly it comes down to defense being very good, and offense being only marginally worse than previously.  

[Doc]

18 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I didn’t say there was evidence he’d be better. Try to keep up buddy.

 

No, you said there's little evidence he'd be worse (which is also wrong).  Did you mean he'd be as bad? 

[Doc]

12 minutes ago, dneveu said:

Right - but they scared no one last year.  True they don't get a full offseason, but harry missed camp and was on IR through most of the year.  Not ideal for a WR to make a contribution.  Sanu showed up in October so he didn't even have a camp there. 

 

The question was convince why they are good - mostly it comes down to defense being very good, and offense being only marginally worse than previously.  

 

The defense will need to be even better than last year because there is no evidence that offense will even be just marginally worse.  Unless you mistakenly believe that Brady was a major problem and Stidham is at least as good, if not better.

[atlbillsfan1975]

They are going to stink. Honestly I don’t see any reason for them to be good under Belichick. Bill isn’t a good drafter this past offseason shows that FA are not beating down the door to play there. Belichick isn’t a players coach. He is a tough ridged coach he demands things be done a certain way. While Brady was there and bought in, it was a easy sell. When that team goes down the tubes this year watch Gilmore to react like a class act. 

[Nuncha]

23 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Why? That’s the whole part of my argument. We are fine saying that other teams will take a step forward or back. We look at their rosters, schedules, coaching and situations. From there we form an opinion of the team will be good or bad. As an example, most believe that the Broncos, Cardinals and Dolphins will be much improved. We don’t just say, “they’re bad until the aren’t.” When it comes to the Pats we just say that “they will be good until they’re not.” It’s absolutely a double standard.

 

Again, I have NO ISSUE if people think that the Pats will be good. There have been some well-reasoned arguments made here as to why they will. The one argument that I will continue to push back on is that “they will be good because they used to be good.” 

WHy?  I think my post was pretty self explanatory.  Belicheck is still there and they have a solid Defense.  D can carry a team a long way.  Until they show they are average or below, I will assume they are a good team.  They lost a 43 year old QB and people are ready to write them off.  I'll believe they are average when it actually happens.

 

The year they lost Brady for the season they went 11-5 with Matt Cassel....MATT CASSEL as the starting QB.

Edited May 7, 2020 by Azucho98

[Rocky Landing]

1 hour ago, Azucho98 said:

WHy?  I think my post was pretty self explanatory.  Belicheck is still there and they have a solid Defense.  D can carry a team a long way.  Until they show they are average or below, I will assume they are a good team.  They lost a 43 year old QB and people are ready to write them off.  I'll believe they are average when it actually happens.

 

The year they lost Brady for the season they went 11-5 with Matt Cassel....MATT CASSEL as the starting QB.

They also had Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Ben Watson in his prime, and an absolute brick wall of an O-line. Their D that year was led by the likes of Teddy Bruschi, and Vince Wilfork, and Mike Vrabel. 

 

The '08 Bills, on the other hand? Dick Jauron, and Trent Edwards. No other names need be mentioned.

[Dr. Who]

Nah, they're evil like they always are only this year they're going to lose a lot as well.

[Kirby Jackson]

4 hours ago, Azucho98 said:

WHy?  I think my post was pretty self explanatory.  Belicheck is still there and they have a solid Defense.  D can carry a team a long way.  Until they show they are average or below, I will assume they are a good team.  They lost a 43 year old QB and people are ready to write them off.  I'll believe they are average when it actually happens.

 

The year they lost Brady for the season they went 11-5 with Matt Cassel....MATT CASSEL as the starting QB.

Then that is your reasoning. You think that they will be good because of BB and their defense. That’s reasonable. “They are good because they are always good” isn’t reasonable. We can only judge on these players, coaches and schedule. 

[RiotAct]

Stidham will probably be like JFK in the 1960 Presidential debates when going up against the Bills.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

5 prime time games 

 

5. 
 

The Nation will watch the fall 

 

[Locomark]

8 hours ago, y2zipper said:

I think that we've already seen the high-end of what next year's Patriots could look like: the 2019 Steelers. If TL:DR, I expect the Patriots to get abysmal QB play from Hoyer and Stidham and I expect their high turnover rate on defense to regress.

 

For all the talk of the Patriots' weapons, lack thereof, etc..., the totality of their offensive production last year was average to below average. They were 15th in total yards, 21st in yards per play, and 26th in rushing yards per attempt. The only part of their offense that was above average was Tom Brady, who produced a lot of yards. (NOTE: this was mostly on volume. Brady was 4th in the league in attempts and produced a below-average passer rating) The interception rate for Brady was also very low, as always (top ten at not throwing picks). I don't particularly see Stidham or Hoyer matching Brady's production while maintaining that low of an interception rate, and the Patriots simply don't have the rushing attack to make up the deficit in production. For example, if Hoyer/Stidham have an NFL average interception rate, that's double Brady's.

 

For reference, last year's Pittsburgh team was 29th in yards per rushing attempt and only managed to beat Jameis Winston and Baker Mayfield in interception rate (3rd lowest).

 

Pittsburgh and New England managed to win by having an exceptionally high and unsustainable turnover rates. The average team got turnovers 12% of the time. Pittsburgh got 19% and New England got 17% for turnover rates, and I expect both of these teams to regress some because turnover rates always change and high turnover reliant defenses are historically not sustainable.

 

It adds up to the Patriots being a .500 team if they sustain a huge turnover rate and a 5-6 win team if they can't, unless Stidham is way better than people think.

This is right on. They are gong to be full on 2 TE power run run pass ball control offense. They will look like the Bills used to look. It’s going to be great !! The only difference is they used to know Gronk could win anywhere on the field. Those rookies aren’t Gronk.

[Punching Bag]

On 5/6/2020 at 4:10 PM, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

they will be in the superbowl against the buccaneers.

 

any questions

 

 

yea which one will you be cheering for and is this lukewarm support or will you be tattooing team and year somewhere for posterity.

[eball]

I bet the under 9 on Pats*** wins this season. No offensive weapons that scare anyone, and the defense lost significant contributors on the LB and DL corps. They have a great secondary and BB.

 

Teams will go 8 in the box against them and force Stidham/Hoyer to make plays.  Any team with an above average defense should feast. 

[Sjci62]

Bill  Bellecek(sp). He can take yousen and you can have hisen and you will lose to whichever group he coaches. Currently the Pats talent level rates a 5 maybe 6 win season. ..prend gare a toi 

[Ramza86]

They are good at beating the Bills. 

 

Last i checked Tom Brady wasnt playing defense against us.

 

A team that has a good defensive performance can win any game.

 

Which is why you dont chalk those games up as wins.

[JoeF]

belinda....

[CardinalScotts]

On 5/6/2020 at 1:58 PM, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I don't see how the Patriots trying to win by managing Stidham and leaning on defense, is stylistically a different approach than how Jauron tried to win, how Marrone tried to win, how Rex Ryan tried to win and how McDermott tried to win for 3 years here. Gailey actually threw the ball. 

 

The Bills have mostly had game managing Quarterbacks, where they leaned on defense to keep points as low as possible, shorten the game length, and try to make a living off other teams mistakes.  

 

The main difference is the Patriots have a history of good defensive play, even with rotating spare pieces in and out of the defense, and a mastermind.

 

It is interesting that Patriots passed on their opportunity to sign Dalton and Winston, have passed on Cam thus far, traded down in the Draft.

 

The Bills had an offense that scored 19 ppg in 2019, and allowed 16.2, en route to a 10-6 record. 

 

The Patriots could attempt to do the same thing, bleed clock, kick field goals, live off turnovers. They have the weakest QB room in the league, unless Stidham is good.   

 

 

 

 

based on what he did with Brissett yes

[CardinalScotts]

On 5/6/2020 at 1:09 PM, MrEpsYtown said:

I do not think they are going to miss Collins or Shelton. They really like Adam Butler on the dline. They still have Lawrence Guy, who nobody on our team could block last year, and there is a chance that a guy like Derek Rivers finally puts it together. I don't like Josh Uche as a prospect, but I think he can replace some of what Collins brought to the table. I do think that they guy they are really going to miss is Van Noy. I think he is a pretty  underrated player. However, they always get production out of linebackers off the street like Elandon Roberts, Marquis Flowers, Jonathan Casillas, Ramon Humber. So I don't worry about them there. 

 

I think they have a really good line and good running backs. Now I do not think that Stidham is going to be very good, but I think he is better than lot of people are making him out to be. He has some tools. And for a less than ideal QB to have success you need two things: a good offensive line and a strong run game. So I would not right them off completely, but I do think they are the second best team in the division behind us. 

production off the street ? flowers 2 starts, cassillas 3 starts, ramon humber played special teams 6 games without any stats of any kind...Roberts 4 sacks in 4 years .....production?

[Royale with Cheese]

Don’t tell me what to do.

[Nihilarian]

All I can add is that this HC went with a QB in 2008 that had never started a college game his entire four year career in college...

 

That Patriots team went 11-5 with Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, and LeMont Jordan at RB. Matt Cassel at QB and that years defense was only top 10. They did have Wes Welker and Randy Moss at WR though.  The Dolphins won the Division that year at 11-5 and the Jets 9-7 so the division wasn't that bad. Buffalo under Jauron 7-9.

 

This season I can see the Patriots having atop 10 defense as their first three draft choices were for defense. As for their offense the only decent receiver is Edelman and perhaps last years rookie WR steps up in N'Kael Harry?

 

Bill Belichick is the goat of NFL head coaches and I just can't see his team worse than 9-7. The man has only had one losing season since 2000, his first year as HC of the Patriots. 

Buffalo will still have their work cut out for them to beat New England, NY Jets, Miami. JMO

 

 

[Doc]

2 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

All I can add is that this HC went with a QB in 2008 that had never started a college game his entire four year career in college...

 

That Patriots team went 11-5 with Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, and LeMont Jordan at RB. Matt Cassel at QB and that years defense was only top 10. They did have Wes Welker and Randy Moss at WR though.  The Dolphins won the Division that year at 11-5 and the Jets 9-7 so the division wasn't that bad. Buffalo under Jauron 7-9.

 

This season I can see the Patriots having atop 10 defense as their first three draft choices were for defense. As for their offense the only decent receiver is Edelman and perhaps last years rookie WR steps up in N'Kael Harry?

 

Bill Belichick is the goat of NFL head coaches and I just can't see his team worse than 9-7. The man has only had one losing season since 2000, his first year as HC of the Patriots. 

Buffalo will still have their work cut out for them to beat New England, NY Jets, Miami. JMO

 

It was virtually the same team Cassel took over and again he lost 5 more games than the team did the year before with Brady.  Stidham's not taking over arguably the greatest offense in NFL history and facing an easy schedule like in 2008.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

14 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Don’t tell me what to do.

Yeah!  He's not the boss of you!  ?

[bobobonators]

I think one thing some people are overlooking is mindset and how important that is in sports. The fear is gone folks. Say what you want about Brady or BB and who was the responsible for their success, but it was a package deal playing the pats. You knew Tom Brady was there and you knew it was going go be hard as F to play the pats and beat them. For some teams - especially the Bills - we practically lost the game before we ever stepped on that field. I have no doubt players had it in the back of their mind that “here we go again, we can never beat these guys.”  Thats gone. 
 

With Tom Brady gone do you think any NFL player worth their salt is going to say “I dont know if we can beat Stidham.” And even more importantly, do you think Patriots players will have the confidence and swagger with Stidham leading them? Will they feel invincible? I doubt it.  

Im not saying the Patriots will be the Bengals. But theyre just another team now. 

 

The mystique is gone. Some of you may not believe in that stuff, but man do I think mindset is so important in sports. 

Edited May 9, 2020 by bobobonators

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

Brady took a ton of pressure off that Patriots defense. I have a feeling the Patriots now might be the worst team in the division.

[Matt_In_NH]

Their roster is not the best and they have an unknown at QB.  However, they have what most would argue is the best coach of all time and that counts for a lot.  He will churn the QB if it is not working out, trade for someone who can manage games, like Brisset or something.    Whether you agree they are good or not, don't be surprised if they are still in it when the Bills play at Foxboro week 16.

 

 

[YoloinOhio]

Their defense will be good. Not sure if the same level as last year but belichick knows what he’s doing and can usually out scheme teams. No one knows what stidham will be because he’s thrown 4 passes. They don’t have a lot of guys who scare you on offense but I think they will probably be 8-8 or 9-7.

Edited May 9, 2020 by YoloinOhio

[ColoradoBills]

2 hours ago, mattynh said:

Their roster is not the best and they have an unknown at QB.  However, they have what most would argue is the best coach of all time and that counts for a lot.  He will churn the QB if it is not working out, trade for someone who can manage games, like Brisset or something.    Whether you agree they are good or not, don't be surprised if they are still in it when the Bills play at Foxboro week 16.

 

 

 

I know a lot of people think BB will be a magician again and pull a rabbit out of his hat this year.  Everyone keeps looking at options for him.

He really doesn't have many.  First, why would an AFC team like Indy (who wants to get a Wildcard spot) want to help NE get one?

Even if they wanted to trade Brissett to NE where is BB going to come up with the money after the season starts?  His vets will cost a lot to get rid of

once the season starts.

 

He's going with Stidham and Hoyer for the season.  I don't see many NFL teams wanting to help him out of his predicament.

[Matt_In_NH]

8 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I know a lot of people think BB will be a magician again and pull a rabbit out of his hat this year.  Everyone keeps looking at options for him.

He really doesn't have many.  First, why would an AFC team like Indy (who wants to get a Wildcard spot) want to help NE get one?

Even if they wanted to trade Brissett to NE where is BB going to come up with the money after the season starts?  His vets will cost a lot to get rid of

once the season starts.

 

He's going with Stidham and Hoyer for the season.  I don't see many NFL teams wanting to help him out of his predicament.

 

Yeah I disagree, lots of teams trade with them (help them) all the time.  And 16 teams are in another conference.  I agree it may not be in Indy's best interest but anything can be had for the right price.  I dont see him pulling a rabbit out of his butt however I do see them being better than people think.

[PromoTheRobot]

Anyone watching the Bills-Pats replay from week 16 on NFLN?

[TheCockSportif]

There are two teams who I am obsessed about this year, well, outside of the Bills.

 

First is NE.  I really can't convince the OP that they will be good.  Could they be good like the 2008 squad?  Could they go 11-5 again?  Sure.  I have no idea how the QB situation will shake out, they seem to have shed talent, I have no clue about how their draft/FA will play out, and it could turn out like the 1997 Bills.  Or maybe it turns out for Belichick like the year (1993?) he benched Kozar for Testaverde.  Or maybe the 1995 squad.  You never know.

 

Second is TB.  Brady there with Gronk would seem like a no brainer, in particular when paired with a coach I really like in Arians.  Still, I don't think that either guy has the goods anymore.  Time will tell.