Article: Bills caught in crosshairs of other teams bad decisions

[BillsMafi$]

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-insider-notes-why-9-7-record-might-win-bumbling-nfc-north-bills-and-ravens-caught-in-crosshairs-and-more/

 

 

"The ripple effect of the Rams trading for Jalen Ramsey without a contract extension and the Texans dealing for Laremy Tunsil without a contract is something I have been chronicling for quite a while. Tunsil already hit his grand slam, securing $22M a year from O'Brien, and Ramsey will inevitably crush it as well. Two teams may be caught in the crosshairs of these decisions more than any others. The Ravens – who hope to extend tackle Ronnie Stanley and corner Marlon Humphrey ASAP – and the Bills, who would like to secure the services of left tackle Dion Dawkins and stud corner Tre'Davious White into the future, as well. These dominoes will keep falling, and it will make the terrain more difficult to navigate for other front offices. Actions have consequences."

 

Edited May 1, 2020 by BillsMafi$

[1ManRaid]

A brief bullet point synopsis would help here.

[Cson76]

basically the Tunsil and future Ramsey deal inflating the market for dawkins and white

[babulator]

Synopsis: The contracts they offered Tunsil and Ramsey will raise the price to resign Dion and Tre.

[BuffaloRebound]

Well, Beane must not be that worried since he didn’t draft an OT and didn’t draft a CB until the 7th round.  That’s usually the tell.  

[Jerry Jabber]

"The ripple effect of the Rams trading for Jalen Ramsey without a contract extension and the Texans dealing for Laremy Tunsil without a contract is something I have been chronicling for quite a while. Tunsil already hit his grand slam, securing $22M a year from O'Brien, and Ramsey will inevitably crush it as well. Two teams may be caught in the crosshairs of these decisions more than any others. The Ravens – who hope to extend tackle Ronnie Stanley and corner Marlon Humphrey ASAP – and the Bills, who would like to secure the services of left tackle Dion Dawkins and stud corner Tre'Davious White into the future, as well. These dominoes will keep falling, and it will make the terrain more difficult to navigate for other front offices. Actions have consequences."

 

It appears the author is implying the Bills will have to overpay to resign Dawkins and White because of the Rams trading for Ramsey and Texans paying Tunsil $22M a year. IMO, I think Beane is building a team for a Superbowl run before a lot of big contracts have to be handed out (such as Allen, White, Dawkins, etc...). Beane seems to be loading up on talent while he has the cap space. If Allen turns out to be the QB we've all been hoping for, then he'll be in line for a $100M+ contract extension. With this being the start of year 3 of Allen's contract, I'd say the Bills have two to three more years (maybe more if the franchise tag is used) before Beane will have to restock the roster with rookies and less expensive players. I think all Bills fans would like to see Milano, White, Dawkins and Allen (just to name a few) resigned, but Beane is not going to be able to keep everyone, so it should interesting to see who stays and who goes.

[TigerJ]

The pertinent part of the article for this thread is the fact that the Houston Texans and LA Rams traded for players (Laremy Tunsil and Jalen Ramsey) at the end of their contracts.  That led to a sense of desperation by the Texans and Rams to extend the two players, and they ended up overpaying.  That distorted the pay scale for tackles and cornerbacks, and teams trying to extend good young tackles and cornerbacks coming off their rookie contracts (like the Bills (Dawkins and White) may have to likewise over pay.

[Mr. WEO]

They won't pay Dawkins that kind of money.  He's a decent player, but if plays at the same level this year, he would be replaceable.

[Bill from NYC]

I know how early it is to say this but from what I gather, the 2021 draft class will be chock full of OTs. There might actually be more prominent tackles than there were receivers in 2020.

[NewEra]

23 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

They won't pay Dawkins that kind of money.  He's a decent player, but if plays at the same level this year, he would be replaceable.

Sure hope you’re right.  Paying that guy 20+mill a year will set us back.  

[whatdrought]

The premise of the article makes sense, but the reality is that Beane and co will pay those guys what they’re worth, and not more. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Sign White. Let another team overpay for Dawkins. Replace him with a 2021 draft pick. 

[Brennan Huff]

The first thing I thought when Ryan freaking Tannehill signed that beyond ridiculous extension with Tennessee, in 3 years when we gotta pay Allen big money he’s going to get 40 mil a year. But we will also have 2 rings by then so it will be worth it

[Bangarang]

I wouldn’t break the bank for Dawkins. I would however make Tre the highest paid CB.

[DrDawkinstein]

37 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Sure hope you’re right.  Paying that guy 20+mill a year will set us back.  

 

I dont want to pay him $20M/year either, but this does bolster the argument some of us have been making that his market value is indeed closer to $15M/yr than the $8-10M some folks here want to pay him.

[MrSarcasm]

Dawkins is as good as Cordy Glenn was when they let him go, so I honestly expect roughly the same treatment. Maybe sign Dawkins and draft a LT and see what happens, worst case you signed a good LT long term and have a backup LT, best case you have signed a good LT you can trade and have his replacement ready at hand.

[klos63]

1 hour ago, Bill from NYC said:

I know how early it is to say this but from what I gather, the 2021 draft class will be chock full of OTs. There might actually be more prominent tackles than there were receivers in 2020.

If there is no college football this season, how will that impact the 2021 draft. Will fewer players come out early?

[Motorin']

The other possibility is that Beane can say, look at how stupid those teams are. They totally screwed themselves right out of being title contenders. Do you want to get over paid and go to a team like that, or do you want to be like the Patriots and build a championship team. That may work with Tre and Dawkins. We shall see.

Edited May 1, 2020 by Motorin'

[BuffaloBills1998]

Out of the two, White is the only one who’s gonna get a big pay day from us. He’s gonna he’s Buffalo Bill for a long time, now for Dawkins he’s good not great but good. He’s not gonna get 20 mil a year not from Buffalo or anyone else for that matter. And he is replaceable especially if they’re able to find someone in the draft next year

23 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I dont want to pay him $20M/year either, but this does bolster the argument some of us have been making that his market value is indeed closer to $15M/yr than the $8-10M some folks here want to pay him.

You have to pay white, there’s no excuse. He’s one of the heart and souls on that defense. He deserves to be paid. Now For Dawkins he’s replaceable and I highly doubt he’s gonna command 20+ mil a year. Especially for a player at his caliber that’s being unrealistic 

[DrDawkinstein]

33 minutes ago, BuffaloBills1998 said:

Out of the two, White is the only one who’s gonna get a big pay day from us. He’s gonna he’s Buffalo Bill for a long time, now for Dawkins he’s good not great but good. He’s not gonna get 20 mil a year not from Buffalo or anyone else for that matter. And he is replaceable especially if they’re able to find someone in the draft next year

You have to pay white, there’s no excuse. He’s one of the heart and souls on that defense. He deserves to be paid. Now For Dawkins he’s replaceable and I highly doubt he’s gonna command 20+ mil a year. Especially for a player at his caliber that’s being unrealistic 

 

Right, definitely pay White. And I expect him to be in the $20M+ range.

 

Pay Dawkins too, and it will need to be around $15M. Especially if it is a long term deal (over 4 years).

[NewEra]

54 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I dont want to pay him $20M/year either, but this does bolster the argument some of us have been making that his market value is indeed closer to $15M/yr than the $8-10M some folks here want to pay him.

I can get behind 15M.  That would be acceptable as long as he continues to improve and not regress.  I think on the upward, but to get 20 mill a year, a LT has to be elite imo

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I dont want to pay him $20M/year either, but this does bolster the argument some of us have been making that his market value is indeed closer to $15M/yr than the $8-10M some folks here want to pay him.

I agree.  I see Dawkins around $15M AAV too.  I’m fine with a 4yr/$60M deal for him.  He’s a good LT and he’s young.  Why create a hole at LT and then have to rely on hitting on an early pick to get back to where we already were?  To save some cap space?  Besides, hit rates early in the draft are still under 50%, people.

 

People making a comparison with Glenn should remember that Glenn had real injury problems.  That’s what seemed to be the problem with committing to him long-term. 

[NewEra]

2 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Right, definitely pay White. And I expect him to be in the $20M+ range.

 

Pay Dawkins too, and it will need to be around $15M. Especially if it is a long term deal (over 4 years).

I just think it’s gonna be 17.5-19M per.  Anything over 17.5 is too much for my tastes

[DrDawkinstein]

Just now, NewEra said:

I just think it’s gonna be 17.5-19M per.  Anything over 17.5 is too much for my tastes

 

I see it at $20M because I think we're still 2 years away from that deal happening (based on White's decision). The longer he waits, the higher the average salary and the higher the top salary. You know he's going to want to be the highest paid CB at signing.

[NewEra]

Just now, BarleyNY said:

I agree.  I see Dawkins around $15M AAV too.  I’m fine with a 4yr/$60M deal for him.  He’s a good LT and he’s young.  Why create a hole at LT and then have to rely on hitting on an early pick to get back to where we already were?  To save some cap space?  Besides, hit rates early in the draft are still under 50%, people.

 

People making a comparison with Glenn should remember that Glenn had real injury problems.  That’s what seemed to be the problem with committing to him long-term. 

To not overpay and put yourself in a bad spot cap wise.  In an ideal world, JA is gonna get 30+ mill a year soon.  Paying an average LT over 18 mill a year is bad business imo.  If he were a stud that stonewalls the best DEs on a weekly basis, pay him 22. But he’s not that

2 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I see it at $20M because I think we're still 2 years away from that deal happening (based on White's decision). The longer he waits, the higher the average salary and the higher the top salary. You know he's going to want to be the highest paid CB at signing.

Sorry, I was only talking about Dawkins.

 

Tre isn’t even worth talking about.  I fully expect to make him the highest paid corner and for it to be over 20 a mill if we continue to wait.

[DrDawkinstein]

Just now, NewEra said:

To not overpay and put yourself in a bad spot cap wise.  In an ideal world, JA is gonna get 30+ mill a year soon.  Paying an average LT over 18 mill a year is bad business imo.  If he were a stud that stonewalls the best DEs on a weekly basis, pay him 22. But he’s not that

 

But no one is suggesting that, and I doubt Dawkins is even asking for that. I think we can all settle on $15M.

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

Sorry, I was only talking about Dawkins.

 

Tre isn’t even worth talking about.  I fully expect to make him the highest paid corner and for it to be over 20 a mill if we continue to wait.

 

Ah, right.

 

Like I said above, I think we an all agree on $15M. Hopefully Dion can too!

[NewEra]

Just now, DrDawkinstein said:

 

But no one is suggesting that, and I doubt Dawkins is even asking for that. I think we can all settle on $15M.

I didn’t know dion was involved in these 15M a year talks we were having ?

 

I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t get more than 15M a year

[DrDawkinstein]

Just now, NewEra said:

I didn’t know dion was involved in these 15M a year talks we were having ?

 

I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t get more than 15M a year

 

I forward him all my posts

[BarleyNY]

2 minutes ago, NewEra said:

To not overpay and put yourself in a bad spot cap wise.  In an ideal world, JA is gonna get 30+ mill a year soon.  Paying an average LT over 18 mill a year is bad business imo.  If he were a stud that stonewalls the best DEs on a weekly basis, pay him 22. But he’s not that

Sorry, I was only talking about Dawkins.

 

I did not advocate for paying Dawkins $22M.  Or $18M.  I advocated for paying him up to $15M, specifically a 4/$60M contract.  Would you have a problem with that?

[Lurker]

Drafting well is the secret to NFL success.  The Ravens have done it for years--and now the Bills are becoming known for it as well.    It keeps theteam competitive and helps them overcome (and in some cases, resist) the league-wide feeding frenzy that drives player contracts to insane levels.

 

Whether we pay the going rate, or make a hard decision to let a player go, the good news is that Beane can probably plug a hole with a quality player that can keep the team at a high level (QB being the league-wide exception, as always)... 

[Bobby Hooks]

Future Bills problem. 

[NewEra]

2 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

I did not advocate for paying Dawkins $22M.  Or $18M.  I advocated for paying him up to $15M, specifically a 4/$60M contract.  Would you have a problem with that?

Not at all.  4-60 and sounds ok to me.  Would really like to see him build on last year, but waiting willi likely drive the price even higher

[Bill from NYC]

1 hour ago, klos63 said:

If there is no college football this season, how will that impact the 2021 draft. Will fewer players come out early?

Great question!!! I have to think about that one.

[Penfield45]

theres no chance we pay Dawkins unless he turns into an all pro this season 

 

Beane will draft a franchise LT with our 1st round pick next season or even move up for one. 

[BuffaloBills1998]

30 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Right, definitely pay White. And I expect him to be in the $20M+ range.

 

Pay Dawkins too, and it will need to be around $15M. Especially if it is a long term deal (over 4 years).

If that’s what keeps them competitive then yes you have to do that. No more being cheap like the Ralph Wilson days

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

For me - Dawkins isn't even top 3 in the conference, let alone the league.  Paying him top 3-5 money doesn't make sense.  

[KollegeStudnet]

White highest-paid.

Dion won't be.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

6 minutes ago, Penfield45 said:

theres no chance we pay Dawkins unless he turns into an all pro this season 

 

Beane will draft a franchise LT with our 1st round pick next season or even move up for one. 

 

I'm fine with paying him - just paying him in the realm of what he is worth.  

 

Fisher, Armstead, bakhtiari are all approaching FA, so the top numbers will be going up quite a bit.  If you can get him at around the 15 million dollar price point - thats still in the top 10 average annual value.  But less than the Lewan, Solder Tunsil (and probably stanley) deals.  Once 2022 rolls around and armstead, fisher, villanueva, bakhtiari get deals itll be outside that top 10.

[Mark Vader]

2 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

I know how early it is to say this but from what I gather, the 2021 draft class will be chock full of OTs. There might actually be more prominent tackles than there were receivers in 2020.

If Dawkins is out, draft Alex Leatherwood.

[bigK14094]

1 hour ago, Bangarang said:

I wouldn’t break the bank for Dawkins. I would however make Tre the highest paid CB.

white is good.....as good a Gilmore has been for Pats?  Maybe, maybe not....I keep wondering why Gilmore showed so much more for the Pats.....coaching?  scheme?  Anyhow, White will get a big payday.  He is great in the zone scheme.....I don't know how his skills translate to a team that is not zone centric like the Bills.  And, Edmunds may improve to the point he is also worthy of a big contract.  He is not there yet either, like Josh, but both trending to deliver that performance level.