RB is a really GLARING need, right?

[OldTimer1960]

27 minutes ago, Bob in STL said:

Pick #54 is very important to the offseason.  I think you need to get a player that can be a solid starter at some point - that would mean Edge/OLB, or OT, or CB would be in play.  
 

Drafting a RB or a WR is basically drafting a rotational player for now.  We could really use another RB to compliment Singletary or another WR threat to eventually challenge for the #2.  
 

I’m glad Beane is handling this and not me.  

Question is whether Julian Okwara, Jonathan Greenard, Bradee Anae or some other DE is a good enough prospect to overlook a very good prospect at other positions Like RB, WR or CB.  
 

Taking an “OK” DE prospect doesn’t help that much, but if you think you are getting a good long-term starting DE that can get you 6-8 sacks a year then by all means do it.

[Bob in STL]

4 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

You are missing the fact that good teams now use two running backs and do not have two. We can upgrade our RB in this draft.  Beane is smarter than me or you. Notice that he has brought in veterans at EDGE, OT, and CB but not an old worn out RB   He has in the last three drafts, traded up to get quality at QB, MLB, OT and TE.  All the stars line up. He is going to find a way to get a top 5 RB, and my only wonder is which one he thinks is the best.

I am not missing the fact that teams use two running backs.  
 

My point is whether you pick one at 54 or wait another round.  

[JohnC]

10 minutes ago, Bob in STL said:

I am not missing the fact that teams use two running backs.  
 

My point is whether you pick one at 54 or wait another round.  

I agree with you that you can get a back in the third or even fourth round and still come up with a contributing player. This team is set with few glaring needs. So unless there is an elite back available with the second pick then just stick with your board and get a good player regardless of position. This front office has put this franchise in a good position entering into the draft with plenty of flexibility heading into this draft. What is very encouraging is that this staff has done very well getting good players in the middle rounds. So there is no need to force things when working this draft. Another advantage with having most positions covered is that the organization can trade some picks to move up in a round because not all of our picks will have a reasonable chance to make the roster. 

Edited March 28, 2020 by JohnC

[maryland-bills-fan]

6 hours ago, Fan in Chicago said:

Your paragraph 1 and 4 seem contradictory w.r.t RB vs DE. We have a good RB in Singletary and if an equivalently rated player who is a DE were to be available, we undoubtedly should pick the latter. The value to the team would be much higher via pash rushing flexibility compared to a lower round RB who would compete with Singletary for touches. I would prefer drafting said DE and then picking a complementary back to Singletary. To your point about WR, if the BPA is a WR at #54, I would go for him as the impact to the team is higher than a RB. Depending on the skill set, Beasley can be trade bait in this scenario. 

Bruce Smith at #54 !!!

1 hour ago, Bob in STL said:

I am not missing the fact that teams use two running backs.  
 

My point is whether you pick one at 54 or wait another round.  

Why buy a fairlane when you can get a corvette?

[Da webster guy]

On 3/26/2020 at 9:53 PM, Rc2catch said:

You have to remember that it’s not a need in the big scheme of things. Backs are found all over. The obvious route is we are probably drafting one. But even after all that is said and done there are going to be plenty of veteran guys just sitting around hoping the phone will ring. There are gonna be tons of options around. Everyday that passes the contracts get lower and lower and lower. Sign a vet for preseason and you can snag them for like a million bucks. It’s possibly the easiest position to fill in the league. Beane will 100% add some talent he’s just bargain shopping and scouting the draft. 

I used to agree with you but look at what Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook and Jacobs for the Raiders did for their teams this year, they got them wins, helped them more than the average RB's did around the league.  

If we are making a run now we need to look to guys that can play as rookies.  Not many spots available but RB2 and edge from what I see.

Who knows maybe Wade is the answer, he's a freak athlete.

[LSHMEAB]

13 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

Addison, though older, is a more productive pass rusher than Lawson. As far as the EDGE position in the draft, there is only one really sure thing but there some very good prospects and I could see a Jonathan Greenard for example on this team and being rotated in 

Yeah. I'm still concerned about the pass rush. I've always been a guy who believes that getting in the QB's mug early and often is the single most important aspect of a defense. That 2014 D comes to mind when I think of "ideal."

 

Beane has a collection of solid players on the DL, so I'm hoping the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. 

 

I think some of us got lulled into a false sense of security in 2019 based on the fact that we had an extremely easy schedule as it pertains to opposing QB's.

 

Haven't dug into the DE prospects this season because my focus has been elsewhere, but I'll take a look at this Greenwald fella.

 

If there's a stud RB in the 2nd who's clearly the BPA, OK. So be it. I like Devin, but the offense is going to need a guy (or two) with a different skill set because he's not a "complete" back. 

 

Just so much more "value" at edge if we're talking about a 2nd RD pick, but you play the board according to how it shakes out I suppose.

 

I will be disappointed if they don't add an edge in the first 4 rounds. Gotta take a shot there because it remains a need.

[John from Riverside]

1 hour ago, LSHMEAB said:

Yeah. I'm still concerned about the pass rush. I've always been a guy who believes that getting in the QB's mug early and often is the single most important aspect of a defense. That 2014 D comes to mind when I think of "ideal."

 

Beane has a collection of solid players on the DL, so I'm hoping the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. 

 

I think some of us got lulled into a false sense of security in 2019 based on the fact that we had an extremely easy schedule as it pertains to opposing QB's.

 

Haven't dug into the DE prospects this season because my focus has been elsewhere, but I'll take a look at this Greenwald fella.

 

If there's a stud RB in the 2nd who's clearly the BPA, OK. So be it. I like Devin, but the offense is going to need a guy (or two) with a different skill set because he's not a "complete" back. 

 

Just so much more "value" at edge if we're talking about a 2nd RD pick, but you play the board according to how it shakes out I suppose.

 

I will be disappointed if they don't add an edge in the first 4 rounds. Gotta take a shot there because it remains a need.

Ed Oliver and Jefferson have 10 ten pass rush win rates

[LSHMEAB]

1 minute ago, John from Riverside said:

Ed Oliver and Jefferson have 10 ten pass rush win rates

That's good, because the schedule is far more difficult in terms of QB's we'll face and the pass rush needs to get a whole lot better. Still concerned about edge, but we'll see what happens. You'd have to assume EO will only get better.

[John from Riverside]

6 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

That's good, because the schedule is far more difficult in terms of QB's we'll face and the pass rush needs to get a whole lot better. Still concerned about edge, but we'll see what happens. You'd have to assume EO will only get better.

I think they took Ed Oliver realizing upcoming things like this year

 

i think Addison replaces lawson pretty well Jefferson provides paaa rush while still being able to stop the run Klein is solid

 

Murphy is what he is

 

need certain players to maintain their production and guys like Williams to continue their progresdion

 

[MrEpsYtown]

So I was reading an article on the athletic that says that the Niners only gave Matt Breida the second round tender with the idea that they would be able to trade him later for a mid round pick. Would you do it for say a 4th or fifth? Behind a paywall by heres the link:

https://theathletic.com/1698741/2020/03/25/49ers-mailbag-jerry-jeudy-or-ceedee-lamb-the-teams-most-enticing-trade-bait/

 

 

 

[The Frankish Reich]

On 3/26/2020 at 7:53 PM, Richard Noggin said:

I really liked Yeldon in the second half against NE last year; his pass-catching presented a problem for the D, much like White has done for years in NE. 

 

But is that a clear #2, or just a committee member, able to contribute in specific ways?

 

I think you need another versatile guy. 

 

Yep, Yeldon seems fine to me compared to some of the other choices people are throwing out there - guys who'd either be expensive or who really aren't any better than Yeldon. I think it's another draft pick rather than a veteran signing.

[Mat68]

On 3/28/2020 at 12:12 PM, OldTimer1960 said:

Question is whether Julian Okwara, Jonathan Greenard, Bradee Anae or some other DE is a good enough prospect to overlook a very good prospect at other positions Like RB, WR or CB.  
 

Taking an “OK” DE prospect doesn’t help that much, but if you think you are getting a good long-term starting DE that can get you 6-8 sacks a year then by all means do it.

Go where the draft takes you.  I think wr and rb will be the highest rated players availible at 54.  Drafting for need never works out. 

[PrimeTime101]

I don't think we are a run first team anymore, are we? I can now see 3 WR sets Diggs, Brown, Beasly with situational TE as there main set all game long, with the occasional 2 te or 4WR sets. The only way dual threat HB works is if you have 2 accomplished HB on the team. Im more thinking we get another 4th or 5th round RB and get another piece on the o'line in the second round and WR third round.

 

All this being said they are going to get bpa at need.

[Shaw66]

53 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

I don't think we are a run first team anymore, are we? I can now see 3 WR sets Diggs, Brown, Beasly with situational TE as there main set all game long, with the occasional 2 te or 4WR sets. The only way dual threat HB works is if you have 2 accomplished HB on the team. Im more thinking we get another 4th or 5th round RB and get another piece on the o'line in the second round and WR third round.

 

All this being said they are going to get bpa at need.

I think McDermott and Beane want to a team that can do everything - not run first or pass first.   They want to be able to win by running 35 times a game and also win by throwing 35 times a game.   

 

To be able to win run dominated games, you need two good backs.   Sure, you could have a Barkley or a Peterson and make him your horse, but that's usually short-term and iffy.   Gurley looked like one of those guys one year, and then he was gone.   You need two.   In a perfect world you'd have a second guy as good as Singletary.   Two guys with 1000-yard potential.

 

I think we're going to see Beane be aggressive going for a back.   Trade a pick to get one, trade up, something.   He knows he needs another guy who is a threat, not just a ball carrier. 

[OldTimer1960]

28 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I think McDermott and Beane want to a team that can do everything - not run first or pass first.   They want to be able to win by running 35 times a game and also win by throwing 35 times a game.   

 

To be able to win run dominated games, you need two good backs.   Sure, you could have a Barkley or a Peterson and make him your horse, but that's usually short-term and iffy.   Gurley looked like one of those guys one year, and then he was gone.   You need two.   In a perfect world you'd have a second guy as good as Singletary.   Two guys with 1000-yard potential.

 

I think we're going to see Beane be aggressive going for a back.   Trade a pick to get one, trade up, something.   He knows he needs another guy who is a threat, not just a ball carrier. 

I don’t think he will have to trade up to get a very good RB.  I think one of the top 5 (6 if you like Moss) will be there at 54.

 

In my opinion save the trade up for round 4 where you might still have a very good WR prospect still around 

[jrober38]

No. 

 

Singletary, Yeldon and a late round pick are totally fine. 

[Shaw66]

55 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I don’t think he will have to trade up to get a very good RB.  I think one of the top 5 (6 if you like Moss) will be there at 54.

 

In my opinion save the trade up for round 4 where you might still have a very good WR prospect still around 

Well, OldTimer, I hear you and I get it.   And I couldn't even name one running back in the draft, so I suspect you're correct.  

 

However, I've come to understand to things about Beane as he goes after players that work well in McDermott's system:

 

1.  He seems have a very high value on some guys, well out of step with the conventional wisdom.   He knows what he's looking for, and it's something different from what most people think he should be looking for.

 

2.  When he sees a guy he values highly at a position of need, he trades up.  

 

So I get what you're saying, but I won't be surprised in Beane trades up to take his running back. 

[OldTimer1960]

2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Well, OldTimer, I hear you and I get it.   And I couldn't even name one running back in the draft, so I suspect you're correct.  

 

However, I've come to understand to things about Beane as he goes after players that work well in McDermott's system:

 

1.  He seems have a very high value on some guys, well out of step with the conventional wisdom.   He knows what he's looking for, and it's something different from what most people think he should be looking for.

 

2.  When he sees a guy he values highly at a position of need, he trades up.  

 

So I get what you're saying, but I won't be surprised in Beane trades up to take his running back. 

For sure, I don’t know what he will do.  I agree that a trade up is pretty likely at some point in the draft.

[Einstein's Dog]

14 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Well, OldTimer, I hear you and I get it.   And I couldn't even name one running back in the draft, so I suspect you're correct.  

 

However, I've come to understand to things about Beane as he goes after players that work well in McDermott's system:

 

1.  He seems have a very high value on some guys, well out of step with the conventional wisdom.   He knows what he's looking for, and it's something different from what most people think he should be looking for.

 

2.  When he sees a guy he values highly at a position of need, he trades up.  

 

So I get what you're saying, but I won't be surprised in Beane trades up to take his running back. 

Like you say, it probably depends on how Beane values them, and the tiers he has.

 

If someone he considers special drops down a ways, Beane just might want to go up ahead of Tampa Bay, they have a glaring need at RB.  I'm hoping that doesn't happen.

[CardinalScotts]

glaring as a non starter who's role could likely be #3 ? no not glaring...they will grab somebody. 

I hope they find a bigger role for Yeldon then give me a CJ Anderson or Powell they have always liked Hyde 

[maryland-bills-fan]

Posted this elsewhere.  We have several, slightly different threads on running backs and what to do with our #54 pick. 

 

Quote

 

Here is a running back rating list from FootBall Outsiders.  “Running backs are ranked according to DYAR, or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. This gives the value of the performance on plays where this RB carried/caught the ball compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage”  Let’s look at the top 10 RB’s and then how the Bills 2019 guys fit it.

Name                    team                     drafted                 college

                TOP 10

E Elliot                   Dallas                    R1   4                      Ohio State

C McCaffrey       Carolina                R1   8                      Stanford

M.Ingram            Baltimore            R1  28                    Alabama

A.  Jones              Green Bay           R5  182                  Texas El-Paso

K Drake                Tampa                  R3   73                   Alabama

D Henry                Ten                        R2  45                    Alabama

R. Mostert          SF                           UFA                       Purdue

D Cook                  Minn                     R2 41                     Florida State

N. Chubb             Cleveland            R2  35                    Georgia

C Carson              Seattle                  R7 299                   Ok. State

……

       Number 20

D Singletary        Buffalo                 R3 74                     Florida Atlantic   

                                   Number 44

F Gore                  Buffalo                 R3   65                   Miami

 

OK.  Six of the top ten were drafted in the first two rounds.  If you want a difference maker that is your best bet to get a difference maker.  I want the Bills to get to the SB, I do not want to watch a bargain basement team just fight for a playoff spot some years.

The Bills have 19 teams ahead of them in the RB listing. Gore is next to the bottom and is gone in 2020.   If we really want to win, we should be at least in the top ten.  Yeldon is not that guy.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/rb/2019

 

 

[DCOrange]

25 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Posted this elsewhere.  We have several, slightly different threads on running backs and what to do with our #54 pick. 

 

 

 

 

 

If we're going to use Football Outsiders' numbers, DVOA probably makes more sense. DYAR will likely prop up 1st rounders because teams that take a RB in the 1st round will feel obligated to use them as more of a bellcow so they'll naturally have more touches and fare better in terms of DYAR. DVOA is focused on the value each RB gives on a per touch basis (also probably more important in our case due to the fact that Singletary didn't become a starter until well into the season).

 

Singletary ranks 13th in terms of DVOA. It seems possible to me we already have our top 10 guy.

 

And in terms of DVOA, 4 of the top 10 from last year were drafted in the first 2 rounds. 5 were drafted in the 5th round or later.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 hour ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Posted this elsewhere.  We have several, slightly different threads on running backs and what to do with our #54 pick. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Regarding the chart - is this looking at total yards in relation to what they would've had as a replacement level?  Wouldn't this tend to lead itself to favor players who had more touches?  

 

Regarding the pick, I'm open to it if its a highly talented player that slips.  If its like we're drafting a back because we need one and panicked at 54, I'm not a fan.   

[Frez]

I believe we need to take a quality RB at 54 if the our guy is there. It would be disastrous if Devin went down early on us in the season and we had to rely on Yeldon. For that alone I'm banking on taking a RB early in this years draft, at least I hope we do.

[Nihilarian]

On 3/26/2020 at 9:58 PM, Inigo Montoya said:

I think Motor is great.  At 5' 7", 203 lbs I worry about his durability across a full season and playoff run.  We need a solid 1b to go with Singletary's 1a.  He was used sparingly last season and still missed three games with his hammy.  The most carries he had in a game all season was 21.  We need another skilled RB to pair up with him.

I don't see it that way... Thurman Thomas 5'10'' 200 lb...Barry Sanders 5' 8'' 203 lb...Walter Payton 5'10'' 200 lbs.

 

Bet you can't even tell me who the backups were to Sanders, Payton. You just need a competent durable body behind the starter.

 

 

P.S. If I recall correctly the Bears didn't even have a backup RB and instead had a FB, same with Detroit. 

 

I get that in today's NFL teams want two viable starting RB's to spread the load over the season. However, that starting RB should be the feature back and they usually get better as the game goes on. I've said it before, I think the Bills FO is looking at Christian Wade as having a spot on the active roster this season. 

 

 

[maryland-bills-fan]

 

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2020/4/1/21198814/opinion-making-adjustments-to-the-running-backs-dont-matter-philosophy

 

If anybody can explain this to me, please post it or send a PM.  I don't know if I have had too much or too little to drink.

[Lurker]

On 3/28/2020 at 1:48 AM, LSHMEAB said:

They drafted Devin in the 3rd round last season. That means he's supposed to be an impactful player. Investing another 2nd or 3rd at RB is just not good value. I would say it would only be a major concern if you have questions about Singletary.

 

I stopped reading after his “running backs don’t matter” straw man.   

 

I can't think of a single fan who would say that.   They might say "running backs are devalued" or "don't use a high pick on a RB"--but no credible football fan would say they don't matter...

[DCOrange]

18 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

 

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2020/4/1/21198814/opinion-making-adjustments-to-the-running-backs-dont-matter-philosophy

 

If anybody can explain this to me, please post it or send a PM.  I don't know if I have had too much or too little to drink.

He's just saying that you shouldn't take RBs in the 1st round because they aren't very valuable and you shouldn't give RBs big long-term contracts because they aren't very valuable. It's a lot of words to say that, but that's essentially all he's saying.

[Richard Noggin]

15 hours ago, BUFFALOBART said:

No.

I dig your directness.

[BaaadThingsMan]

I think Motor can be a Thurman Thomas type of back. All respect to #34 because he did the damn thing and I'm not saying he will put up those kind of numbers but I'm not sure having breakaway speed is all that important 

[maryland-bills-fan]

4 hours ago, BaaadThingsMan said:

I think Motor can be a Thurman Thomas type of back. All respect to #34 because he did the damn thing and I'm not saying he will put up those kind of numbers but I'm not sure having breakaway speed is all that important 

It is when your back can do it and does it a few times. "Safeties" have to peek in the backfield all the time. The LB zones for passes become different.  IT makes the passing game better.

[njbuff]

6 hours ago, BaaadThingsMan said:

I think Motor can be a Thurman Thomas type of back. All respect to #34 because he did the damn thing and I'm not saying he will put up those kind of numbers but I'm not sure having breakaway speed is all that important 

 

No one is/was or ever will be Thurman. No disrespect to DS.

 

[JESSEFEFFER]

At no point in the discussion did they bring up that a well rounded RB is a huge asset to a passing game, much as Thurman was and that should be a point that is considered.   Yes, "running backs don't matter" is an extreme position.  Yes, the passing game matters more than the running game.  Yes, other positions are more correlated to winning and losing.  Yes, rules changes have devalued runners.  Yes, rbs tend to lose their effectiveness earlier in their careers.  Bruce argues these points.  But, he finished by saying that if a highly talented RB falls to 54 the Bills should consider making the pick because it might improve the roster more by replacing Yeldon than say a less highly rated CB would that forces EJ Gaines off the roster. 

 

I almost hope they get a RB they think is elite in the 2nd round and maybe even trade up a little to get him just to watch some heads explode around here.  Hah!  My position is that the next RB talent chosen to pair with Singletary is likely to play a bigger role on the team in 2020 and the 3 years follow than any other player they draft.  There are no other obvious holes in the roster and most everyone else they drat will have to battle to make the 55.  So, why not do what they can to make this an elite talent.  

[DefenseWins]

The Bills DO need another RB to back up Singletary. Whether they get him with their 2nd rd pick however is open to debate. As Singletary himself demonstrates a really good RB can be found in the mid rds. (3-4) On the other hand there should be some rather good young OT's available in rd 2. Or perhaps an edge guy. 

[BaaadThingsMan]

On 4/2/2020 at 2:53 PM, maryland-bills-fan said:

It is when your back can do it and does it a few times. "Safeties" have to peek in the backfield all the time. The LB zones for passes become different.  IT makes the passing game better.

Right , but not that many backs have it anyways. 

23 hours ago, njbuff said:

 

No one is/was or ever will be Thurman. No disrespect to DS.

 

No way, but #26 can be an every down duel threat out of the backfield for years to come 

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

Glaring need to me means you need a starter there, I think Devin Singletary would make an excellent starter, Yeldon is a big back who can also catch which is a plus, I think we'll either draft 3rd or 4th round or perhaps looks at Carlos Hyde if the price is right.

[maryland-bills-fan]

Hyde had a 1 year $ 2.8 million contract with KC last year.    I think we will not be interested in him unless the draft doesn't bring us a RB.  He was drafted #57 in 2014, so he is in his 7th year, so he is not a young puppy.  He is not that expensive compared to 2nd and 3rd round draft picks, who are on a 4 year contract. Those contracts go about as follows:

 

2nd round    $M per year      bonus $M

33-41           1.8                         0 .9

42-48           1.6                         0.7         

49 - 64        1.1                         0.6

 

3rd round

75-92       0.95                          0.2

 

https://heavy.com/sports/2019/04/nfl-draft-pick-salaries-contracts-signing-bonuses/

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/houston-texans/carlos-hyde-14467/

[BillsCelticsAngelsBama]

An injury to Singletary would be very scary if they don't add REAL quality to the running backs'room. Not some slug or former Panther

[CSBill]

On 4/2/2020 at 8:21 PM, JESSEFEFFER said:

 

I almost hope they get a RB they think is elite in the 2nd round and maybe even trade up a little to get him just to watch some heads explode around here.  Hah!  My position is that the next RB talent chosen to pair with Singletary is likely to play a bigger role on the team in 2020 and the 3 years follow than any other player they draft.  There are no other obvious holes in the roster and most everyone else they drat will have to battle to make the 55.  So, why not do what they can to make this an elite talent.  

 

This, a bigger RB that can run between the tackles, and who can block and catch passes in the passing game. Free agent or draft, that is he need.

Edited April 6, 2020 by CSBill

[JAMIEBUF12]

Don’t we also have Christian Wade this season?